2006-2007 Baseball Offseason Thread....
 

Dusty and Cubs Part Ways...



And also Andy McPhail quit yesterday as Cubs Team President. Looks like the organization is going to completely revamp itself. Here's hoping for the better.

I'm not crazy about a Marketing guy taking over as team president though. I guess we'll see how it works though. Joe Girardi is the clubhouse leader for Manager, but I wouldn't mind waiting a while to see what other teams are looking for a new manager, too.

Another expected move...Felipe Alou won't return to the Giants as their Manager next year....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2610590

The Cubs got worse every year under Baker, and his "I guess you gotta blame someone" bullshit is as fitting as anything else he's said since coming to Chicago. The fact is, with the team the Cubs had for 4 years and the payroll they had, Baker is more to blame than anyone else in the organization. Whoever else hires this buffoon gets what they deserve, because Dusty Baker is one of the worst managers in recent history. His teams have won is spite of Dusty, not because of him. Good riddance you obstructionist fuckwad.

So I'm guessing he won't get a Christmas card from you, eh?

Now if the Blue Jays can hire a manager capable of not fighting with his players....perhaps we can improve on that 2nd place finish.

I got to go to a game at Wrigley this year, and in the middle of the game - which the Cubs were losing - I walked past the ushers and went down the aisle down the 3rd base line near the Cubs dugout. I told the seatholders I wanted to take a picture (which I did), but when Dusty came out of the dugout, I started screaming at him, telling him what a worthless POS he was, how much he sucked, etc. The usher finally came to escore me out and I told the people sitting there I was sorry for the rant. One old guy said, "If I knew you were going to yell at Dusty like that, I'd have invited you to stay for a few innings". My kind of people.

Girardi hasn't been released yet, has he? I was overseas and I'm totally out of sorts.

The Red Sox fired Dave Wallace and Ron Jackson (hitting & pitching coaches). There were rumblings of discontent recently from "veterans" about Jackson's performance this season. (Seems to me that in order for it to have gotten him booted, veterans would have to be one or more of Ortiz, Varitek, and Ramirez.)

Not yet. Rumor has he's going to be let go tomorrow, and if not, he has an out clause in his contract for the Cubs job.

I believe the early injury to AJ Burnett and Josh Towers really cost us this year. If Burnett is healthy all season and Towers pitches anything close to his last 3 years, then it aint t he offseason for Toronto. Looking forward to next season. Should be a interesting one in Toronto. Lots of players up for free agency

And the second shoe falls - well, shoe 1 1/2 - as Joe Girardi gets the axe. I hope Joe kept his realtor in Chicago on retainer.

The Marlins Brass.... WOW!

Everytime the Fish do something positive, they throw a flipping Atom Bomb at it and blow it to smitherines..

We'll see. There were a lot of rumblings from within the Marlins organization about how difficult Girardi was to work with, and how if it were completely up to him, a lot of the younger players that starred for Florida this year wouldn't have seen the field - Beinfest and company had to insist.

Should be an interesting case study to see how well Girardi does from here on out, and how well the Marlins do with a new guy as manager. I think a big portion of the praise in Florida for how well they did this year has to go to Beinfest for getting so many talented prospects back in his trades.

Will be the 8th manager for the Marlins so far.

Good points DawgFan. I was speaking from more of a historical viewpoint of the Florida Marlin Franchise..

The dismantling of World Championship Teams... and now the shaking up of what was a good baseball team that achieved very good things this season in contrast to what was expected.

I don't know the behind the scenes stuff... The Marlins just can't seem to keep things right once they achieve positive goals.

And the Marlins have named their new manager, Freddi Gonzalez.

Rumor is Pinella is more likely in Chicago and Girardi in DC.

Actually word here in DC that Dusty is on the short list for the Nats. I also have to believe that, if Chicago is truly interested, they will not be outbid for Girardi.

Interesting how all the negative stuff about Girardi was "leaked" to the press by management starting about three to four weeks prior to the end of the season...when the Marlins were still in the hunt for a wild card. No distractions there, boyo!

That alone puts me more on Girardi's side in this thing.

Well, it was certainly a very fucked-up situation, and I think Loria is an ass. I think it was rather thin-skinned of the front office as well to leak that stuff as well - it reeks of "Hey, that guy's getting too much credit! Look at us, look at us!"

Still, I wonder whether Girardi will be able to live up to his lofty reputation elsewhere. I also suspect that his popularity may actually be a hinderance to him getting the job with the Cubs - he'd instantly be a hero there, and poor peformance next year would likely first be blamed on Hendry, who's probably already on the hot seat.

I think Hendry should already be out.

Hendry should already be out.

why?

• Because he sucks.
• Because he sat on his fat putrifying ass for 3 years and watched the Cubs rot and didn't do a goddamned thing to help.
• Because he let Dusty Baker run the team into the ground and never canned his sorry ass.
• Because he's taken a farm system, once the top farm system in baseball, and turned into one of the worst - not able to produce a single major-leage worthy position player EVER.
• Because he continually trades good young pitching talent for crap.
• Becasue he signed Neifi Perez and 15 guys just like him.
• Because he didn't trade Mark Prior when he could. For Miguel Tejada! AAAUUGGH!
• Because he believes OBP and walks are overrated, and this filters down to the farm system, producing no players who can get on base consistently.

I could go on for fucking forever

Before you can Hendry, you don't mind if the M's grab Angel Guzman for a bucket of balls and some rosin bags do you?

Hey, he brought Matt Lawton in AND Phil Nevin, didn't he? ;)

I heard Hendry three years ago on Tribune owned WGN state that he believes the most important stat in baseball is Runs Batted In. Case closed.

Cubs should have cleaned house, but the problem there is that the new President is not a baseball guy. He needed to retain a 'solid' baseball guy like Hendry, who appears poised to have complete say in the construction of the roster. His track record isn't so hot.

Relying on Wood, Prior and Zambrano for three consecutive seasons after Baker whipped those mules for all he could in 2003 was a complete and utter mistake (I realize Zambrano has stood the test of time, but just watch his career arc - it will look a lot like Alex Fernandez. Not to mention holding on to prized prospects like Corey Patterson til they proved beyond a doubt that there was nothing to the hype and lost all trade value.

The Cubs have a deeply flawed roster and free agency alone can not salvage this team. It won't happen in a million years, but I believe the steps the Cubs could take are:

1) Fire Hendry and bring in someone competent.

2) Fire sale (trade Zambrano at his career peak value, trade Lee if someone will trade value for him even though he was severely injured last season - Lee's 31 and we've seen his peak too Cubs fans, dump Ramirez whom will lose all inspiration once they pick up his option, Prior should stay only long enough so that potential suitors can see he's capable of staying healthy for 10 consecutive starts). The Cubs need to seed their farm system with actual talented players. This would be a start. A schlock team on a low budget would be every bit as capable of producing the NL's worst record, just like the 90+ million payroll 2006 squad)

3) Sell the team - The Tribune Company's in trouble and has been rumored to be contemplating just such a move. Pull the trigger after you've slashed payroll by 50-60%. They'll be more attractive. The big drawing card of the franchise has always been Wrigley, so a barebones roster shouldn't detract too much from the market value of the franchise.

4) profit :)

Cub fans would still come out to Wrigley no matter who they put on the field...so that's a plus if they slash payroll.

The only point I disagree with is the farm system. Yes, I know it sucks now. But he's one of the main reasons why it was good at a time.

Missed the Perez comment. Solid statement. Who was the outfielder they signed from the Twins? That wasn't a wise move or well received by Cub fans as I recall.

Jacque Jones? Talk is that he's going to demand a trade this offseason because he came here for Dusty. I hope it's true.

Fire Buddy Bell! err

Maybe he can transfer to a D-II team so he won't have to sit out a year...

Good news! Wrigley was mostly emply the last 2 weeks of the season - the first time that has happened in decades. The management spoke about how shocked they were that the fans - who had already purchased the tickets - chose to stay away rather than go to the games. A bold statement by the fans IMO.

However your arguement is right on the nose - there is no reason why the Cubs should be spending more than $25M tops on payroll if they can sell 3M tickets a year. Shit, how much do you have to spend to have the worst record in the NL?

Actually, he's not. Hendry inherited a very very good farm system, but he's in love with the high school pitcher, and the results bear this out. Hendry decimated a good system, he didn't build it up first.

Triple-motherfucking-dola-play:

• Because it has been 36 hours and he hasn't hired Joe Girardi yet.

Quad-dola-phenia

He had quite the impressive year, but if he wants a trade, I'm all for it. Make room for Manny! Or Carlos! or Alfonso!

Shit, who am I kidding?

Make room for Marlon Byrd!

While the Tribune company has control of the Cubs, no one will win a division title or World Series. They need to cut bait and sell to someone that will allow the team to join the 21st century.

When all they care about is attendance, no one can win in that atmosphere. NO one. The Cubs of the 80 and 90's is LONG gone.... the one year where they almost made it was just a blip in the loser radar. I have been watching them for almost 30 years and it tears the soul to see them like this.

Baseball America marks the decline under the Hendry regime here.

Felix Pie: The 2nd coming of Corey Patterson?

I agree with everything except your opinion on Carlos Zambrano, his numbers put Alex Fernandez to shame, and you simply don't deal a stud pitcher who should get you a win everytime he takes the mound. If the Cubs doctors think they know something, so be it, deal him, but I don't see how one can expect Zambrano to wear down at age 25.

Astros extended Phil Garner's contract and fired their pitching coach...interesting moves.

A 25 year old w/ 977 major league innings pitched averaging over 107 pitches a start.

*tick* *tick* *tick* *tick*

I did find a better comp for Z. Kevin Appier, who did go on to have a full and mostly productive career, but there was a four year stretch in the middle of his career where he lost a season to injury and was league average for the next three (cummulative effect of the overuse in his formative years???). It is possible Zambrano might not explode. I'm just saying if I'm the GM, I certainly couldn't possibly be suprised if he does.

Twins picked up Hunters 12M option for next yr. I'm pretty surprised by this move, I thought they were gonna let him walk.

better to trade him midseason

Looks like Pinella will be officially announced as Cubs manager with a 3-year deal.

A's fired Ken Macha

Phillies extend Moyer at 10.5M for two yrs. Seems like a dumb move to me, being that he turns 44 next month.

Ridiculous. They must have reasoned that since he doesn't throw hard to begin with, he won't completely lose it like Big Unit is going to.

That's a move I just don't understand at all...

SI

And people wonder why the Phils keep falling short of the playoffs...

Bochy is the new Giants manager.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2640133

I wonder what he was making with San Diego and whether this was a matter of money or not. I'm sure he has his own criteria, but I wonder why someone would leave what seems to be a young and rising team to go to a very old and seem to be going nowhere fast team. I may be mistaken, but wasn't he very well liked throughout SD?

Better question is why SD didn't care that he wanted to look elsewhere.

Yeah, that was the odd thing in this story to me. I thought they were fairly happy with Bochy in San Diego, but I guess not.

SI

Wow - the Pads must have really wanted Bochy and his size 9 1/2 head out of Sd in a hurry. First they offered him to Chicago, then he's offered, interviewed, and signed in SF in about 25 minutes.

Is there feeling that Bochy was underacheiving in San Diego? From everything I saw, he took that team a lot further the last 5 years than the talent would otherwise indicate possible.

And got them to a WS in 1998, I think it was. He seems to be a solid manager, though I really haven't paid much attention to the Pads to have an accurate read on his abilities.

RE: Moyer.

I don't think it's that horrible of a signing as some. I think his professional approach to the game will be beneficial to have around the clubhouse for guys like Hamels and Myers. I doubt they will be able to land an "Ace" type this offseason anyways. Maybe you bring back Wolf and Leiber and your rotation is already set. It's not the greatest in the world, mind you, but Hamels and Myers can both be the type of top of the rotation guys you need.

I think if you can pick up an above average 3b and a big bat, that next year looks solid for the team.

NEW YORK -- Gary Sheffield was told Wednesday that the New York Yankees will pick up his $13 million option for next season, according to a newspaper report.

Sheff's apparently quite pissed at this news as well.

Agreed on Moyer. Although he is ancient, he is a slowball pitcher and could probably pitch until his mid-40's if he wanted to. At the very least, he will be an excellent mentor for Bret Myers and Cole Hamels; both of whom have great potential. I have three hopes for the Phillies this season:

1. Get rid of Pat Burrell. I don't care how and I don't care what you get. Just get rid of him.

2. Sign a solid 3rd baseman. While I'd love to get Armaris Ramieriz, I fear his price tag will be too high. However, as long as they can improve over Tomas Perez, it is an improvement.

3. More bullpen help. The bullpen was just to sketchy last year. Gordon will be another year older. Rhodes is injury prone. Ryan Madson is too inconsistent. They need to go out and sign another reliever (or two, or three!)

On starting pitching, I think/hope/and they probably will stay away from Zito and Schmidt. Maybe this is crazy, but I think the Phillie's could potentially have the best rotation in the National League next season if they can just get Gavin Floyd right and Randy Wolf stays healthy.

If the Phillie's can get a Myers-Hamels-Wolf-Moyer-Floyd rotation; I'd be extremely confident next season that the Phils will be the front runner in the NL East (with Pedro out for the Mets; Braves rebuilding; Nationals in neutral; and Marlins being the Marlins).

Actually, I'd fear the Marlins more than any other team next season.

Plan aims to tame wild cards
By Troy E. Renck
Denver Post Baseball Beat Reporter
Article Last Updated:10/27/2006 12:44:48 AM MDT

St. Louis - When the general managers meet in Naples, Fla., in two weeks, there will be a lively discussion about taming the wild card.

Commissioner Bud Selig has broached the idea of making it more difficult for wild cards to win the World Series. As it is, four times in the first 11 years since the playoff format expanded, the cards have walked away with all the chips.

There is growing buzz that baseball may try to create fewer home games for wild cards. So instead of hosting two in the first round, they would get only one - the first game followed by four on the road. That would have splattered Ragu on the Tigers' plans this October, since their entire rotation has been mapped out to have Kenny Rogers pitch at Comerica Park.

"I am not in agreement with that, even though I know some people are," said general manager Dave Dombrowski, whose Tigers earned the AL wild card. "With the unbalanced schedule, you might have the second-best team in the league and be a wild card because the division is so strong. Why should you be at a disadvantage?"

Joe Garagiola Jr., an assistant to Selig, understands the reluctance to change the system. But he thinks the concerns merit a debate.

"I don't think it's a concept you can just reject out of hand," Garagiola Jr. said. "I will be interested to see what the group of GMs thinks about it."

Without being specific, it's clear MLB officials have been watching the NFL playoffs. Football's wild cards go on the road to reach the Super Bowl, as the Pittsburgh Steelers did last season.

"You can't equate football with baseball. A series is one game in football," Cardinals outfielder Preston Wilson said. "I think it's just sour grapes from teams that got sent home by wild cards. You play well at the end and you win. If you don't, you go home."

In regards to making it harder for the wild card to win, why not just make the 1st round a best of 7 series? More revenue for the teams, and if the division winner cant beat the wild card in a 7 game set, than maybe, just maybe, they aren't the better team. (and i am being hipocritical here bc i still feel the Mets were the better team against the Cards, but they didn't get the job done so maybe not)

In response to Moyer, it's obviously not a move thats really gonna bite them in the ass like Burrell did, but I just tthink that 5M a yr coulda been spent elsewhere.

And with Sheffield, I saw some comment he made last night, its not word for word but it's along the lines of "If I am playing for a team just for one yr next season, there's going to be a problem".

They can't move to a 7 game series because they don't want to push the playoffs into November. As it is, under the new TV contract, the WS is now going to start on a Tuesday, and rather than make it earlier, MLB is likely going to push it back to the following Tuesday. So we likely will have November baseball anyway. Adding a longer series would make it even worse.

Sheffield, I think, will ultimately come around. But they've got a problem with him right now - clearly, they see him as a 1B, and he doesn't want to play 1B. And if he gets traded, he wants an extension. Probably to play 1B for the Yankees he's going to want an extension. Given his past, this could blow up. But I have a feeling he'll stay right where he is. And honestly, I hope the Yanks give him an extension...

According to Newsday, Yankees GM Brian Cashman already has an acceptable deal in place for Gary Sheffield, though he's still hoping something better comes along.


Whether it's true or not, just throwing it out there could help increase demand. The Yankees have until Sunday to officially exercise Sheffield's $13 million option for 2007. It looks like they'd prefer to have the deal done by then, just to get Sheffield out of town. The Phillies, Cubs, Indians and Rangers are among the teams thought to be pursuing him. Oct. 31 - 9:34 am et

:eek:

In an initial meeting with the Orioles, Alfonso Soriano's agent reportedly laid out a proposal for a contract similar to the seven-year, $119 million deal Carlos Beltran received from the Mets prior to the 2005 season.

Soriano would have a better argument for such a pact if not for the fact that he was turning 31 in January. Beltran was entering his age 28 season when he got his seven-year deal. Although another inflated market is likely, Soriano belongs somewhere around $80 million over five years. Maybe it's not ideal, but it should keep him off welfare. Oct. 31 - 9:12 am et

Here is an idea. How about the teams who already have the homefield advantage and supposedly have the best team in the respective leagues play like they are the best teams in the league? I saw nothing in the Tigers- Yankees series that led me to believe that the Yankees would have beaten the Tigers if all the games were played in the Bronx. What's next, the "best" team will not have to play any games if they are missing their top two starters? What if Rogers were at his best on the road? Would they have forced the Tigers to host three games so they would be at a disadvantage? Hell the team that had the best record and homefield advantage in the World Series did not play well enough to win and they got beat. I agree with Preston Wilson. Sounds like a whole lot of sour grapes.

Yeah that doesn't sound like a great plan. I think once you get to the playoffs, you start from scratch.

I think people (not necessarily those on this thread) are really underestimating how well the Wild Cards have to play to make it to the postseason in the first place.

If you consider, forgetting the records, how well a wild card has to play in relation to every other team in their League, I don't think its so bad that the Wild Card wins a Series, even if it is more than they "should" be winning.

If you really want to solve this problem give a bye to the Number 1 divisional winner (which I would have no problem with) or follow the NBA model. The NBA model basically says to create a fourth division in baseball by expanding so much that you have 3-4 teams in each league winning less than 40 games a year. Sounds like fun!

Just roll the regular season back to 156 games and expand the 1st round to best of seven. Works for me.

(won't work for the clubs unless they get the three home games revenue back, but it still works for me).

Well... I don't have a problem punishing the wildcards.. But the leagues also need to go back to the balanced schedule. Right now, the wildcards are not fairly chosen.

Also, they need to get rid of interleague rivals and just rotate it randomly by division. There's a point where a sport has to forego short-term profits and just do what's best for its competetive integrity.

I really don't get the "it's not fair..." arguments about the wildcard either. These teams were all beaten out during the longest season in pro sports. I don't care if your team won 100 games--- if another team in your division won 101, you've got nothing to cry about.

I don't see anything wrong with the way it is right now. If the "better" team cant win, than tough shit and better luck next yr. And if MLB doesn't like that, than get rid of the wild card if you dont want them winning a World Series. Also, what's the origin of having division winners make the playoffs rather than the best 4 records in each league going to the playoffs?

I still don't know what's the deal between SD and Bochy. He's been there for 12 years and that's an awfully long time. Alderson did tell him that they were not going to extend his contract beyond next season so I guess they allowed him to walk, giving him the opportunity to get a nice multi-year deal while his stock is up.

Why not more double headers? Besides the players not liking it.

Hell, they could even run 159 games, and have a bunch of "if necessary" type game setups for the final weekend after the playoffs start. Start games 1 and 2 of the WC round while the rest of the non-playoff teams are burning off the rest of the regular season.

I'm all for it, it's about time they discussed the WC situation. If you can't win your division, you should lose a home game. If they do that, I think they should just have 1 play 4 also.

Errr... did you miss that Pedro was basically a .500 pitcher for the Mets this year? I don't think anyone else aside from the Mets are going to be the 'front runners' in the NL East next season... especially if they end up getting Zito or Schmidt in the offseason.

I'm in favor of the WC losing a home game. I mean if you can't win your division who are you to ask for additional benefits? Actually I think I like Costas' idea to get rid of the WC and just give the #1 team in the league a bye for the first round of the playoff. Get the other division winners to play in the LDSs. Though I doubt that'll happen (less money).

I also do agree with a balanced schedule. Perhaps have that as well as the WC losing a home game. That may be more feasible.

Phils are supposedly hot for Soriano, offering like 75/5 or thereabouts. He would be great protection for Howard.

Guillermo Mota has been suspended for 50 games.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2645976

Claims that the Mets and Glavine are in talks of a 2 yr, 25M deal. Being a Mets fan, not so sure what i think of this if it goes through. Seeing the way he pitched this yr, he kind of re-invented himself and it kinda seemed like maybe he can go another couple of yrs. But, that 12.5M a yr might be more useful in other areas, although SP is the number 1 concern.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2645628

Hm... that might go a long way to explain his erratic performance.

SI

Please tell me you're not judging a pitcher by his W/L record? Pedro has slipped from his heyday, and he slipped a bit more last year, but he was still one of the top 10-15 starters in the NL when healthy.

Just to be a homer for a minute, although Giles is probably gone and the Braves lineup still has some holes, with relatively little offseason activity, and the prospect of a Smoltz, Hudson, Davies and a healthy Mike Hampton rotation isn't anything to sneeze at. That could be a very good rotation.

In claiming that the Mets are not favorites or front runners for the NL East as a result of losing a starting pitcher, that pitcher's W/L record during the preceding year has some weight. I mean the fact that Pedro was a .500 pitcher indicates that he was not central to their success in winning games this finished season. If you are claiming a 12 game swing between the two teams you need more than a pitcher who went 9-8 for the team isn't going to be playing much next season.

Furthermore, Pedro Martinez had an ERA+ of 96 this past season. Indicates that he wasn't exactly the key to their number of wins.

But the discussion was about prospects for next season, and judging Pedro by his W/L record this year is a very poor way to project the Mets chances with him presumably back next year.

ERA+ does a great job of showing he did, but it's not the best predictor of future performance. I'm assuming you know of DIPS theory and what events over which a pitcher has the most control - xFIP is a very good metric measuring these factors. Based off of xFIP, Pedro was among the upper echelon of NL starters - had he had enough innings to qualify, he would've ranked 11th in xFIP.

The biggest factor with Pedro obviously is his health - how much will he pitch next year, and will his recent injuries along with another year of wear and tear on his arm degrade his performance? If the Mets get the Pedro they had last year for 30 starts, he'll be their best starter.

Yes, it is about prospects for next season and saying that because Pedro won't be back for many games next year as a reason why the Mets won't be front runners in the NL East is silly considering how much he actually contributed (which, yes, focuses on the fact that he got only 9 wins and the Mets finished 12 games ahead of the Phils).

So basically, Pedro being 'out' for the Mets is not that major a deal since he didn't do all that much this year and they finished so far ahead of anyone else in the NL East. Pedro had a 9-8 season with a below average ERA+ and the Mets STILL won the division by 12.

Pedro actually pitched reasonably well - the Mets just didn't score a ton of runs for him. If he pitches about the same as he did last year (in terms of the factors he has a great deal of control over - K rate, walk rate, flyball ratio), he'll probably have a better ERA than he did this year.

Look at it this way - the Mets scored a certain amount of runs when he pitched. Had Pedro not pitched as well as he did, they would've lost more games than they did. A pitcher's W/L record is a mix of the pitcher's performance and the hitters.

Looking at the pitching metrics that best predict future performance, Pedro should be the Mets most effective starter next season, presuming he's not spending most of his time on the DL. If that turns out to be true, he'll by definition be a critical component to their ability to repeat as a playoff team. To characterize him as a ".500 pitcher" is selling him short.

Now, whether the Mets will need him to be great is another story. Their lineup is great, with the only real question revolving around whether Reyes' big season was an aberration. Given his youth, you'd think he should still be pretty good next year. The rotation isn't as great, but I expect they'll make some plays for a big-name pitcher. I don't know if the other NL East teams can match them for pure fire-power, but baseball's a funny game - a real good team can have a down year while a lesser team has everything going right.

Bottom line though, the Mets will definitely be a better team if Pedro is healthy.

... and kinda what the discussion was about all along (actually RedKingGold speculated Pedro would be 'out', but even if Pedro didn't pitch next year, the Mets would be the front runners).

Perhaps - depends on what they do this offseason to address the rotation. I'd argue that they are heavily dependent on their lineup right now, and they may not be able to get away with that next year.

My main point was to dispute the idea that Pedro was merely a '.500' pitcher, which suggests that he's just an average pitcher. He's much better than average is what I'm arguing.

But last year he WAS average, mostly due to injury... and the Mets still beat down the rest of the field in the NL East.

The Mets were a bit lucky last season - they beat their Pythagorean expected W/L total by 5 games, and other teams in the NL East underperformed their Pythagorean expected records.

Add to that the big jump the Mets made overall, Pythagorean or not, and the reality that such big jumps are usually followed by some regression.

Yes, Pedro's actual results were average - but as I've said, when measuring the factors he had the most control over, he was quite a bit better than average (and the best starter on the Mets), and so it's reasonable to conclude he was somewhat unlucky last season and if he pitches exactly the same next year as he did last year his actual results will improve.

They may be able to win the NL East again with little to no contributions from Pedro, but they'll be a lot better off and a lot more likely to repeat if they get a fairly full season of Pedro as he was last year.

Of course, but no one said that they wouldn't.

Isn't getting a "fairly full season of Pedro" pretty much out of the question for 2007? He's out until June or July at least, I thought. And that's if he comes back at all. This is the same injury that effectively ended his brother's career. So it's possible that even if he comes back, he'll suck for a few starts and be shelved permanently.

For him to give the Mets more than he gave them this year, he'd have to pull a Roger Clemens 2006 (with the added issue of overcoming the injury), which I'm not sure he's capable of.

Liriano OUT for 2007! that hurts. Hope he makes a full recovery, but I dunno.

hxxp://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AjE8YlY7sR0kQ5CEckVsygc5nYcB?slug=ap-twins-lirianosurgery&prov=ap&type=lgns

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Minnesota Twins pitching sensation Francisco Liriano will have major surgery on his left elbow and is likely to miss the 2007 season.

Liriano, who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA as a rookie, will have Tommy John surgery on Monday in California, the team said Friday.

The ligament transplant procedure usually takes at least a year for recovery.

Liriano pitched only six innings over the final two months because of pain in his left elbow. With veteran Brad Radke expected to retire, the AL Central champions will need help to bolster their rotation.

Watching his pitching motion, this isn't a shocker. He's very, very talented, but his pitching motion is an injury waiting to happen.

Well, they didn't get the payroll slashing part of my plan right (yet), but the Chicago Cubs are for sale.

Yikes... bad news for the Twinkies. The baseball gods giveth and then they taketh away.

Bud Black is the Padres new manager.

Barfield to Indians for Kouzmanoff, Triple-A pitcher

ESPN.com news services

SAN DIEGO -- Josh Barfield, who hit .280 for the San Diego Padres last season, was traded Wednesday to Cleveland for Triple A prospects Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andrew Brown. Barfield Barfield had 13 home runs, 32 doubles and 21 stolen bases in his rookie season for San Diego. The Padres, however, were content to deal Barfield because of Kouzmanoff, who hit .389 in Double A last season and .353 in 102 at-bats at Triple A Buffalo. He hit a grand slam on his first pitch for the Indians in September. He finished with a .214 batting average and three home runs in September duty with the Indians, but the Padres saw enough to deal Barfield. Brown was 5-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 62 innings for Buffalo a year ago. The trade was first reported on the Web site of the San Diego Union-Tribune, which noted that Marcus Giles, currently the second baseman for Atlanta and brother of Padres outfielder Brian Giles, might attract the Padres' attention. The Padres are also considering Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura, a third baseman who could move to second, according to the Union-Tribune. Iwamura plays for the Yakult Swallows.

The Orioles signed a lot of 25-year old AA players and got turned down in their quest to obtain a 38 year old outfielder (Sheffield) via trade.

It must be so easy to be an Orioles beat writer. You can basically write your articles about them your first year on the job and then just change the date each succeeding year because they're like a broken record of misbegotten futility.