Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )
 

Far away from here there are wizards, some of whom live in Fortune. They specialize in training diviners here, seers that then cover the globe in search of wolves, their mortal enemy.

That made it all the more embarrassing when Felix's Divination Nation! (motto: 'If you buy, we'll scry!'), one of the leading diviner schools, had an infestation of wolves. Wolves, student diviners (who are not fully trained yet!) -- Felix's reputation must be saved!

This is a 9 player game. The basics are very simple. There are 6 seers (students) and 3 wolves. A role for everybody!

The students have a 75% chance of correctly identifying the faction of another player. Each student can scan another player every night.

There will be a night zero where everyone gets a scan to start the game.

Each day the players will vote on a player to be lynched. The player with the most votes will be killed. Ties will be broken by coin flip. The faction of the player lynched will be revealed upon death.

The wolves do not know each other. They have a 80% chance of correctly identifying the faction another player. Each wolf can scan another player every night. The wolves will each vote on a kill attempt each evening. The player with the most votes will be killed. If there is a tie it will be settled by the first kill vote received. Note that it is possible for the wolves to kill one of their own.

The wolves must eliminate ALL the students. The students must eliminate ALL the wolves.

Rules may be modified at the whim of the GM until the game starts. Let's have fun! Day deadlines 9PM Eastern, results around there somewhere. Night deadline 9AM Eastern, results closer to 9 Pacific. We'll figure out start date when we fill.

Signups:

1. st.cronin -- wolf, lynched day 3
2. Alan T -- student, killed night 2
3. Chief Rum
4. ImTheCrew -- wolf, lynched day 2
5. ntndeacon -- student, killed night 4
6. RendeR -- student, killed night 1
7. DaddyTorgo -- student, lynched day 4
8. Lathum -- student, lynched day 1
9. hoopsguy -- student, killed night 3

I'll play...

I love your sense of humor path, but I'm going to sit this one out.

Oh gosh, this game should be crazy. I won't be signing up (at least right now), but I'll follow with interest.

I'm imagining it as a wild, fun free-for-all. A game to just have a good time with.

I'll play. I need something fun to do for 3 days!

Ditto. Im in.

In

In

sign me up.

Well, I guess either people are waiting for the big game to start, need a break or this idea isn't really going over well right now. We'll give it another day or two and see what happens.......

this sounds classic. I'm in

dunno how I missed the signup thread

in

Any problem running this game with 8 path? Seems like a decent number for a small person game!

I'd like to get at least one more. I think we could do it with 9. If we don't have any more takers by end of today we'll go with what we have.

Update.

I do have one player who has offered to play if we can't find anyone else, but I know his schedule is full right now and I'm hoping we can get one more volunteer.

If we don't have one by 9PM Pacific, we'll roll with nine. I'll update rules, send out PM's and ask for night 0 view choices at that time.

Woot! First to post. :)

I'm a villager, but then, what's the point? I figure by the end of Day Two, we'll all have pretty strong suspicions about who is who.

I recommend we don't ALL scan AlanT on the first night. :)

Actually, seriously, if we had more time, I would recommend coming up with a "scan plan" so we can get roundabout reveals going. But I don't know if that gets any support.

I will be around a little early on in the morning, but then I'll probably be out the rest of the day. Thursday is also pretty shot working both jobs. Expect some late night posting and/or early Thursday posting tomorrow.

If I am still alive on Friday, I should be around a lot more.

Good luck, everyone!

OK, first question - what happens on the 25% of scans that fail? Do we get incorrect faction info or no result?

I did not put in my scan order for AlanT, fwiw.

And I'm expecting that I won't be around a ton this week, so please don't come stalking me just because I'm more quiet than usual (see post #16).

My guess is that that 25% wll just see the wrong thing. (Or 20% in the case of the wolves) I hope I am wrong as wrong info could be costly.

Got my pm, and sent my scan order in already!

The way I read the rules it made me think there is just a chance of failing the scan, not that you would get the wrong info from. Clarification would be good I suppose!

well i guess if everyone gets a reading on night 0 then we can suspect that we get bad info. even if we all get good info on night 0 after night 1 we will be sure. :)

Ok I may be real new to this whole werewolf genre, but this, based on the rules of this particular game seems utterly idiotic?

No matter your role you don't want to divulge that information because there is no one out there to protect you. Anyone announcing their role, truly or falsely will not survive any given night.

One faction or the other will kill you just because you've given them the opportunity.

Scans that fail will give incorrect faction info.

Checking in. I also didn't scan alanT. I won't be around for a few of the nights and is we go into the weekend I will barely be around.

To answer Renders question it is common for the "seer" to give themselves up in a 1-1 trade in these games. I have yet to see a seer make it to the end of a game. In this game some people will need to give themselves up.

RendeR, everyone is going to claim to be a seer. The other game you played there was only one seer. So protecting that person, as is usually the case in WW, was a high priority for the villagers.

However, with multiple seers how is one seer more valuable than another seer from the wolf perspective?

That is why I think that everyone is going to divulge their role (or fake reveal as a seer) and only one person is going to die (if I read the rules correctly). It won't be because they are the seer, as the importance of that role is marginalized by the abundance of people in that role.

I did, in the Jack the Ripper game. :p

I like the idea of a plan for scans ... I'm scanning DaddyTorgo.

I'm certainly willing to talk about a plan for scans, but I would prefer to start tomorrow when we have time to coordinate it.

I haven't really gone through the pros/cons of doing so quite yet but I think we would have to decide on a subset of people to run the scans against given the 25% chance of failure. So if we pair up in groups of two at the end of Day 1 (can debate what to do with odd man, if needed) and also agree upon the order that info is released between that pair. I think that would be the way to go, while trying to preserve teams of two who report identical information.

I would have liked to have a game the size Path initially intended for this plan because I think it would be harder to lose in that scenario. Here, with fewer days to implement the plan there is a little higher likelihood of failure.

well aren't you cool :)

dodn't you mean you scanned daddytorgo last night?

We should at least TRY to get some coordination for night 0, hoops, even if its not total. If everybody scans Lathum, for example, that's a bit of a waste, isn't it?

Considering I haven't gotten a result, I think the scan is still underway. Meaning I assume I can change it up until deadline, should circumstances dictate.

I encourage multiple people to scan me( but not to many).

I scanned ITC last night

I was operating under the assumption of a 9:00AM deadline.

Cronin, I would have been all for trying to coordinate if we had more than ten minutes or if we had a room full of people in here chattering when I posted.

FWIW, I did scan Lathum. I wanted to pick someone that someone else would likely scan so we could have something resembling validation. And because I thought it was important to remove the world's greatest wolf early if it came to that :)

I thought deadline was noon. Anyway, DaddyTorgo is a student.

Noon eastern.

Ah. I thought path was using pacific time.

wanted to get that out there.


He is a wolf

wow im shocked lathum that you would come out this early with false accusations i am villiger, did anyone scan lathum to see if he was a wolf??
25% chance you got the wrong info 75% your'e a wolf so right now ill go with the % and

VOTE LATHUM

ps i scanned Render and he was clean

hopefully my scan was accurate

I scanned Lathum and he came up wolf. Given the 25% chance of failure, I'm not looking to go bananas with this, but I'm certainly not jumping on his vote for ITC right away either.

So, we've got two wolf scans out there right now:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf

And one villager scan:

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student

ITC, who did you scan and what was the result?

then you got an incorrect scan.


If I was a wolf the last thing I would do is come out guns blazing on the first day.

Lathum, it is certainly possible. That is why I'm not voting right away here and hoping that someone else scanned you to verify/dispute the result.

ordinararaly I wouldn't come out swinging but since longest help vote could be a tie breaker I wanted to get it out there early.

Lynch ties will be broken by coin flip per the vote last night. I'll update the rules post.

damm. that was a quick turnaround. got my role-PM at 12:45am with a deadline of noon for a scan request. didn't check the board this AM so didn't even see that. fortunately dear Path randomly scanned someone for me, and i have interesting results. going to go and check and read through the rules and what-not to try to see if there are disadvantages to revealing what i learned.

I scanned Hoops and he turned up as a student for me.

So that means to me a 75% chance he is good and not lying about his 75% chance that lathum was bad. So worst case 50/50 for me that Lathum is bad Which is better than most day 1 votes.

It also makes me take any caution that Imthecrew is a wolf without more collaboration.

So to update our list:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf


Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.

I don't really understand this. Do you me it is 75% that hoops isn't bad and trying to save ITC?

No, the rules say I have a 75% chance of successfully scanning Hoopsguy. Since he scanned good to me, then thats a 75% chance that he is good.

So right now I trust Hoops more than anyone else, and put a bit more weight into his scan of you than your scan of ITC

well I think your math is off in terms of me being 75% bad.

I know I am a villager, so my scan is 75% accurate and it returned that the world's greatest wolf is a wolf this game as well.

i'll try to break down what that means in a second in terms of probabilities of him lying vs. being honest and getting the wrong scan result

i do think it only benefits us to be very open about scans and scan results though. that way we can start to build up trust...if multiple people who are double-cleared good scan someone and they come back as good then they are likely good

VOTE LATHUM

cuz he's a wolf, assuming my scan was correct

hoops and i both had lathum show up as a wolf? seems to me lathum is pretty darn wolfish

can someone run through the math. i guess we're looking at what...combinations? or permutations?

interesting.

Well once I come up good it will be obvious daddytorgo could be trying to protect ITC.

I suggest 2 people scan DT and 2 scan ITC tonight.

Lathum, Alan is working under the same 75% assumption for me that you would be working with for ITC.

We all obviously put the most trust in our own scan result. But after that, what scan results do you trust most? Alan is suggesting that he will apply the transitive property, trusting that the person he scanned as good (75% accurate) is accurately portraying their results (also with 75% accuracy).

I'm still very interested in seeing the other scan results. Both ITC and DT have posted since results went up, but haven't given their findings. Also, DT's post suggests that even if a result was not submitted that there will be a random scan - so everyone should have results.

From my perspective, it is clearly in our best interests to share information. We aren't trying to protect a role here. We are just trying to get the most data points to make an informed decision.

I never said we shouldn't share information and I understand Alan's perspective. I just think his math is off.

It really doesn't matter at this point.

The real question is weather or not people will believe DT

DT, there is a 1/4 chance of one person having a bad result. The second person would also have a 1/4 chance. So the chances of both getting it wrong is 1/16. I'll take my chances on this.

VOTE LATHUM

hoops...you just missed my results. per my random scan assigned by path, lathum is a wolf.

cronin has already scanned me as good, meaning the rest of you should have 75% trust in that i'm good. i know i'm a villager, so i trust myself 100%.

why would lathum want 2 people to scan ME and ITC tonight if we've both been scanned once? That seems like 2 wasted scans (if we're willing to go with 2 scans per person being a reasonable level of certainty). maybe he's trying to protect fellow wolves by diverting scans?

and meanwhile we have 2 people confirming (both of whom have been singly confirmed as students) that lathum is a wolf. Now maybe Hoops+me+Lathum all got the bad-25% (or bad 20% in the case of lathum) scans, but the odds of that are pretty damm low. and why would i try to protect ITC? I wouldn't even know he was a wolf. The more likely scenario is lathum is evil and trying to get us to take out one villager + divert scans to people he suspects are not wolves since they've been cleared.

did that make sense?

From the rules:

So it makes it harder to accept the concept of one wolf covering for another one at this point.

Here is how I could see that happening:
1. DT is a wolf and scanned ITC, identified him as wolf
2. DT scanned Lathum, identified him as a villager, and decided to back my "invalid" scan to put pressure on me the next day

I'm guessing there are other scenarios based on feel but I don't think the odds (12.5% choosing, or having chosen, ITC based on random numbers) really support DT having knowledge on ITC that would back the idea of him "covering" for him.

DT. I suggest 2 people scan each of you because I am going to come up good.

It is obvious to me that you DIDN"T SCAN ME LAST NIGHT as you claim and you are attempting to save a fellow wolf.

That is the only logical comclusion since the odds are so low.

Hoops, you are operating under the assumption that DT's random scan was on me and that I turned up bad.

Considering how long the odds are you don't see it likely DT is outright lying?

thanks. i don't do math. i couldn't figure if just multiplying the fractions together would be okay, or if we needed to get more statistical and do permutations or combinations or something

Dola- not to mention I claimed ITC as a wolf long before anyone revealed a scan about me. If I was a wolf I HAVE NO REASON TO DO THAT since I would have no knowledge of being scanned

lyncing me also takes away the possibility of a wolf being night killed

For two villagers, there is a 9/16's (56.25%) chance of both identifying the same player as the correct faction.

That isn't exactly a lock, as I see it. That said, two people both rolling wolf for Lathum is damning at this point, and if true, certainly does put his reveal of ITC in doubt.

I scanned AlanT, as I suggested I might, and he came up clean to me.

I am going to...

VOTE LATHUM

This is just in case I don't get back here to read new input later on. I should be able to check in later today before I go into work, but I wanted a vote in if I couldn't.

Still wrapping my head around the reveals and percentages.

BTW, to Render, it is fairly typical at the start of games for players to reveal they are villagers. That's all I did. Now here in this game, everyone is a seer, so saying this doesn't matter much. But it always seems like players who don't get unreasonably attacked, so I was covering my bases. I would ratehr we not waste a day on me.

Make sure to let Path know then, since his math is off too.

I agree it seems likely that Lathum is a wolf. However, I also think it is still plausible that ITC is also a wolf - at any rate I'll leave my vote there for now.

I am simply amazed no one is considering the possibility that DT is lying about who he scanned.

Go ahead and lynch me, at least we learn alot about people.

obviously my point isn't coming across

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.

Results unknown:

ImTheCrew
ntndeacon
RendeR

ITC said he scanned Render and he came up student

Well, it seemed to me you were trying to twist facts in an effort to wiggle out of a lynch.

Its a fact that a good person has a 75% chance of an accurate scan.

I scanned Hoops as good, so 75% likely that is true
Hoops scanned you as bad, so 75% chance that is true
Cronin scanned Daddytorgo as good so 75% chance that is true
DaddyTorgo scanned you as bad, so 75% chance that is true.

All in all, you have a chain of 4 seperate scans that tie together. Its possible that one or even two of them are wrong. But thats why I said before I felt it was 50/50 that you were bad. Chief posted something closer to 56% which sounds pretty decent.

Either way, right now I would be very suprised to see us end up with a better candidate than you.

I'm trying to figure out why if Lathum were a wolf, he would point to another player and say "wolf." Do people think

a) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a student
b) he scanned ITC, and ITC is a wolf
c) he scanned somebody else

Personally I think b) is most likely, even if you posit that Lathum is a wolf.

Its very easy for a wolf in this game to make a claim about someone and it end up being wrong.. "Woops guess the 25% chance I was wrong bit me there".

I'm not going to condemn ITC until we get some collaborating scans on him (like we did with Lathum). Likewise I think its important for us to get a second scan on people (like myself, Hoops, etc) and even more important to get a first scan on people who havent been scanned yet.

Can 2 seperate scans of someone be wrong? Yes. Is it likely they both would be wrong? No.

Oh, and before I forget.

Vote Lathum

You guys missed IMC's scan of Render, for what good at the moment that is (given doubts about ITC, I mean).

Whoops, Lathum beat me to the punch.

Like I said before, I have zero to gain by accusing ITC so early in the day unless I was positive ( or 75%) he is a wolf. It would be the dumbest wolf move ever since it would guarentee me being dead by day 2, not really an optimal strategy.

This would be totaly different if I was accused THEN came out and said I scanned ITC and he is bad but I cast the first stone.

If you lynch me tonight not only are we down a villegar but it eliminates the possibility of ITC being accidentaly night killed. HE will be scanned, come up bad, lynched tomorrow and we lose a day.

Dola-

You guys are going to lose this game early.

Follow this logic.

We lynch ITC today and he comes up good, I am dead meat tomorrow. Assuming you think I am a wolf we have 1 dead wolf and one dead villegar.

We lynch me today, I will come up good, we waste scans tonight on ITC and he gets lynched tomorrow. Still one dead wolf and one dead villegar, the only difference is we waste a day and valuable night scans.

Trust me, lynching me a a horrible move.

No, I don't believe this. I believe your move is the smart wolf move, and waiting to be accused would be the bad wolf move. You show confidence in your vote, that your scan of Imthecrew is infallible with your vote so quick before even listening for other secondary scans of him.

This tells me that you know you would be a popular target, you knew that it was likely that at least one person would scan you if not multiple. You knew that you might have a tough time dodging that bullet, so instead you pull out a day 1 target, and pick someone who likely doesn't have a history for talking their way out of a lynch.

You know that if imthecrew is lynched and ends up good, you wouldn't get lynched right away, as this isn't like other games. Being wrong on a scan doesn't make you bad, it just makes you unlucky. And you know you could talk your way out of that.

Unfortunatly for you 2 people scanned you as good, both of whom were scanned by other people as good as well. Is there a chance that you're good still? Sure. But right now we have a better chance of you being bad than anyone else in the game, and that says something.

If you somehow end up turning up good, then we know there is the 75% chance that Imthecrew is bad at that point and can be an ok day 2 target even without wasting more scans on him. Your turning up good would be a voucher for what you gave us in the way of information. Only if you turn up bad do we then have to question the motivation behind the delivery of your information.

That makes no sense. A 1 for 1 swap is a GOOD move for the village. Its pretty clear that one or both of you and ITC are wolves.

I understand that but either way it is a 1-1 swap.

Lynch ITC today and we don't lose tomorrow and tonights scans.

And AlanT, you can't seriously tell me at least one person will scan ITC tonight and IMO that is a wasted scan.

Either way, though, you're probably going to get lynched tomorrow, unless about 3 people scan you and all say you come up as student.

If you turn up bad? then people definitly need to scan ITC, but not everyone. I already stated my opinon on scans. Its important to have everyone scanned at some point, and also just as important to get second scans on people, including myself.

I assume you will turn out bad, and we won't be able to take your scan of ITC at face value either way. If you turn out good, then we know its a 75% chance that ITC is bad, and we probably don't have to really waste scans on it and look elsewhere instead.

With you being good, and his scanning bad, would make him a decent day 2 target if nothing else presented itself during the night. However I find that unlikely to happen, and think the more likely possibility is that you will end up bad and we won't know anything about ITC .

so your saying if ITC was to get lynched today, come up wolf I would still be a target tomorrow?

It would be foolish of us to lynch ITC based on your word alone rather than lynch you based on multiple other people's words.

Yes.

BTW- Daddytorgo made his reveal AFTER St.Cronin "cleared" him. It would be a solid wolf play to say he scanned me once he has a level of trust in order to save ITC.

why?

Because the suspicion of you has nothing to do with ITC. He's a totally different issue. The evidence against you has nothing to do with him.

dola

The evidence against ITC is colored by suspicions about you: It makes more sense for somebody else to scan him tonight.

So its like this:

2 claims that Lathum is a wolf by people that have been "cleared." Its impossible that all 4 of those players are bad, and its improbable that more than one of them is.

1 claim that ITC is a wolf by a wolf who has been outed.

There is no way we lynch anybody but you today, and even if somehow you are able to persuade the village that we should lynch ITC, the claims against you will still be strong enough that you will likely go down tomorrow.

Well I am done. I have to leave in a littlte bit and will be out until past the deadline.


Once I come up good I suggest you look at DT and ITC eventhough looking at ITC will be a waste since he should be lynched today.

I guess my only hope is NTN or Render scanned me.

For tonight I plan to scan ntndeacon.