2015-2016 MLB Hot Stove thread
 

The transactions are heating up and the awards are starting to be handed out.

First awards are Comeback Player of the Year. Prince Fielder gets the AL award, and Matt Harvey gets the NL nod.

Link to the MLB Hot Stove tracker:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/hot_stov...nt_tracker.jsp

MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com is great for offseason tracking.

Royals news...

Alex Gordon has declined his option as expected.

Royals decline options on Guthrie and Rios.

Zobrist, Chris Young, Madson, F. Morales and Cueto (obviously) headed to free agency.

Would only like to see Gordon back if they can get him for $15-16M/yr. Zobrist would be nice on a 3 year deal, but someone will likely offer him four. Don't think Colon is quite ready to be the every day guy and Infante is still an offensive liability.

Would be nice to see Chris Young back for a year or two as well, nice stopgap option in the rotation.

I'd be fine with Dyson/Orlando platooning in RF next year with Rios gone.

Giants have declined the options on Marlon Byrd ($8m, expected) and Nori Aoki ($5.5m, not quite as expected).

They've said it's so they can be flexible while pursuing a top flight pitcher, and I want very much to believe that. Unfortunately, left field is now a pretty big gap. Gregor Blanco is an excellent 4th outfielder...not sure how I feel about him being a starter. Especially when he's a better CF than the guy they use in CF (Angel Pagan).

I was surprised to see that the Rangers and Mike Maddux couldn't agree to a deal on a new contract. Since the move to the new ballpark in 1994, the six lowest team ERAs were on his watch. Greg Maddux also moved on as well from his front office consultancy gig. That is a lot of baseball knowledge to replace.

Wouldn't mind seeing Gordon go to the Tigers. Biggest need is starting pitching and bullpen help though. Please oh please do not go out and sign another dedicated closer for too much money and term.

I think the clubs that have reportedly showed interest thus far are the Cubs, Angels, and Red Sox.

I guess that means he will sign with the Dodgers or Yankees. :D

Hopefully they are setting up shop in Detroit. Doubtful, but hopeful.

Mike Maddux just signed on with the Nationals

:(

Shit...

Explain where he would play on either of those teams?

Yanks have a solid OF and their #1 prospect is an OF. Dodgers always have like 6 OFers at any given moment

Was done tongue in cheek regarding those particular teams spending habits. Although the Yankees have toned that down the past few years.

I hope the Dodgers grab Zimmerman and Heyward

I hope they re-sign Greinke as quickly as possible do I can avoid hot takes about whether he could play in Boston. Give me Price or Cueto. (I like Samardzija as a bounce back candidate too, but it's clear we'll target "an ace" to appease the media/pinkhat fans, whether it's through FA or trade.)

Greinke at 4 for 120 for sure

Although it was probably the right move, I am still disappointed the Tigers couldn't keep Price. Team has taken a nosedive with starting pitching the last 2-3 years.

I can't imagine Greinke signs anything less than a 5 year deal, probably will need an option year as well.

Rumors are bouncing around that the Giants are going to be in big on him, if only to drive the price up for the Dodgers.

The price isnt the issue, it's the years

Saw it mentioned that Royals could realistically sig Gordon, Zobrist, and Kasmir. Yes please!!! That would be fantastic.

Yeah, I was using price as more of an "overall cost."

crazy


http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/baseb...d-at-29/npKLD/

it will be interesting to find out what happened.

My phone is telling me the Braves are deep in talks to trade Andrelton Simmons.

Well, at least they re-signed AJ Pierzinski /s.

Miami Marlins will leave Scott Boras out of Jose Fernandez, Marcell Ozuna negotiations

David, you can't say this if you really want us to be on the Marlins' side in this case.

Last offseason the mets tried and the braves supposedly asked for Syndergaard, Conforto, and other pieces. That price will probably have to come down a bit to move him.

The price would have to come down a lot, at least to the Mets. I'd give up Wheeler, but not Matz and certainly not the big 3. I understand he's excellent defensively but his bat is no better, and possibly worse, than Tejada's. Obviously there's a ton of value in that glove but I'm using the excess pitching for offense, not defense.

There's no way I'd trade for Wheeler without seeing him healthy first.

But, Synd and Conforto are clearly worth more now than they were at the deadline.

Apparently when the Mets heard he was on the market again, they inquired... the Braves said for either Harvey or deGrom.... wtf?!

It's hard to quantify, but he's clearly the best defender in all the land - down year or not. I don't think you can give up your well-established front-line starters for him, but I think Wheeler's probably a fair value.

And I agree that I wouldn't expect Atlanta, or any team for that matter, to give up a significant asset for Wheeler before he comes back.

Well either him or Jason Heward... someone else Atlanta dealt away.

Definitely.

Mets have excess pitching, every fan base thinks they can get one of the 4 cheap, so there's going to be a lot of dumb rumors. And a lot of them will be true - if the Mets inquire why wouldn't Atlanta ask high to start?

I know the Red Sox are talking to them, although I think the Mets are asking for Bogaerts, which is a non-starter. Even though I think he's a (slightly) better player and I still hope it doesn't happen, I actually could see Mookie Betts being used as the headliner in our trade for an ace due to our current CF/2B depth, but we just have no other SS options.

There is asking high and then there is asking for something ridiculous that shuts down all future negotiations. If you ask for Harvey or deGrom, you aren't being serious, IMO. Asking for Matz is more realistic.

Simmons to the Angels

Holy Shit, the Braves got Mike Trout?

Ok, I'm done with the Braves for a few years.

Heyward I understand, you probably won't pay him. Wood was less understandable, but Ok, he has a weird motion. But Simmons, who you have for 5 years $50 million?

If I'm Freddie Freeman, I refuse to play until I'm traded.

Reportedly the Braves were down on Simmons' bat. So they traded for a guy who hours worse and is worse on defense

Newcomb could well be a very good #3 starter in a few years but holy hell I am excited about this trade for the Halos. Talk about incredible defense up the middle for the next 5 years.

I just don't understand the Braves - I mean I get rebuilding through trades but they are basically trading everything down to the bare walls, and what do we end up with? Like 40 pitching prospects? What about bats?

yeah just doesn't make much sense

They were demanding Matz and Conforto. Enjoy the return you got.

That's a bummer. I followed him pretty closely because I had him on my fantasy team his first two seasons. Really seemed to have a lot of troubles after that though. Always got the sense that something was not right in his life.

Mainstream seems to have danced around it but the strong rumor when the story broke was a massive (or at least catastrophic) cocaine overdose.

Totally agree. When they've pissed off the last fan will he please turn out the lights?

That wouldn't shock me. He was highly touted when he came up, and pitched phenomenally, but there was always this sort of detachment from the media about his ability level, and the corresponding hype. Like, if he's this good, and you think he's going to be this good, shouldn't he be getting a ton more pub? It was odd, like they were purposely not exposing him to much or avoiding talking about him.

The same thing happened with his subsequent trade and injuries and issues. It always felt like, "we don't really wanna talk about him too much because we don't want to convey, or dig too deep into what's going on".

Then he just sort of disappeared. And now he's dead.

How likely is it for the Jays to land ANTONIO BASTARDO? They need lefty bullpen help, and I seriously just came across this guy today. What a name!

re: the Braves trade of Simmons. The new GM spins it as being an offensive upgrade, says they might even win more games just through this one trade. Let's look at this "upgrade"

Simmons 2015: .321/.338/.660
Aybar 2015: .301/.338/.639

Maybe Aybar just had an off-year though so maybe ... oops, the peaks of the two players over three years are virtually the same. And Aybar is older by five years, so room for improvement is considerably less.

In other words, the new GM is full of crap.

Canned response from a new GM. It is 100% a move for the future, and honestly not a bad one at all.

I've been saying this for a while now, but I thought they were looking at a HOU-level tear down and trying to get the payroll as low as humanely possible going in to the new stadium. Aybar makes half of what Simmons makes and is on the final year. The Braves are currently 23rd and may move down after this deal.

Maybin is a 2017 option, and I believe Swisher and Bourne have 2017 options. That is also when Freeman's contract goes to over 20M (why they think he's worth that I have no idea). So I believe the idea was to get the payroll as low as possible going in to 2017 when they can go on a spree, call up a bunch of young players, and open the new stadium with some excitement.

Yup, they got some decent pitching prospects for a guy who just had a really disappointing year...at least, relatively disappointing. He's still one of the very best defenders in the game, even in a down year.

Down year = 4.0 WAR ;). Why exactly trade him when he's cost controlled until 2020 again?

And not one of the, the absolute best defensive player in the league at the most important position. A lot of the Angels boards don't like the trade because it empties the worst farm system in the league but I love it. Ellis and Newcomb will both have to overcome a major lack of control to ever be big leaguers. Not that it can't be done, but they are major risks

Defensive metrics aside, for those of you who watched a lot of Braves games, is he as good defensively as people say, based on the eye test?

Easily.

Yes. Probably the best infield arm I've ever seen (maybe some of the elite 3B could compare), which lets him play much deeper and have insane range.

Yeah, he's pretty crazy good. Like, good enough that I can't be righteously indignant when he beats out my guy for Gold Glove every year.

We disagree on the assessment {shrug}

It's penny pinching at this point, to the extent that I think you could see a fan uprising against the current ownership.

That new stadium deserves to sit empty afaic.

Every Braves fan I've seen on Facebook has been up in arms about this trade. At least two have sworn off the Braves as long as Liberty Media owns them... and I don't think they are being melodramatic either.

So why is Freddie Freeman allegedly off limits? You're clearly going for a tear down, and while I think Freeman is worth his contract, he's clearly not a bargain.

I'm one of those on Facebook who said they're done. I'm through for a while. My wife said last night that she still wants to get to a game this season since it's the last year of Turner Field. I told her she can go without size the Braves don't give a shit about me enjoying the product they put on the field.

Maybe he's got bad karma to work off? I mean, suffering through that franchise right now has to be punishment for something

Braves may as well deal off Freeman and Miller. Let the fans take all the hits at once.

Freeman can go, he's not worth 20M :)

Well, Dave Dombrowski wasting no time trading away the farm system. Manny Margot, Javy Guerra, Logan Allen to San Diego for Craig Kimbrel.

My phone just told me the Braves are shopping Freeman... So fuck them. Forget not following them for a few years until they wanted to give a shit, I'm done. I've followed this team since I've been old enough to walk, going to games since then, but its one thing to try and get prospects, but they're getting rid of guys who will be in their their prime when they plan on actually competing.

Isn't a 26-year old star the kind of guy you want to bring in when you're rebuilding? Or is this an 8-year rebuilding plan?

he may have quietly asked out.

You may have said the same thing for Heyward or Simmons ;).

The most fascinating FA of the winter, Rich Hill, to Oakland, early reports saying 1 year, $6m guaranteed. I was hoping we'd re-sign him, but if he wanted a guaranteed rotation spot it wasn't going to work out.

Bryce Harper is the NL MVP, Josh Donaldson the AL MVP.

Rumor mill here has the Giants looking into obtaining Miller.

Dodgers hire Dave Roberts

Barry Bonds under consideration to become Miami Marlins hitting coach

Let's do this. With his obvious hitting knowledge and the legal anti-aging/age management/optimal wellness clinics in South Florida, the sky is the limit.:D

Jordan Zimmerman for 5/110 looks like a pretty solid deal.

Wow - David Price to the Red Sox for reportedly 7 yrs / $217MM. $31MM per year seems so steep, but it's hard to gauge when salaries keep rising and rising. Makes the Zimmerman deal look even better.

That's a lot of money for your #4 starter in the playoffs.

They should have just re-signed John Lester. Of course that was a previous regime.

But with that mistake in the past, they're not going anywhere without a better starting rotation, they didn't have to give up any prospects, and they have lots of money, so whatever.

He can opt out after the first 3/90, or at least hold them hostage for an extra year or two(ala CC)

Shurg. David Price is 18 months (and 350 ML innings) younger, and has a career ERA 0.50 less... Lester has the better postseason track record and is $5m/y cheaper. (I'm also not sure why everyone always says the Red Sox should've signed Lester and no one ever says we should've signed Max Scherzer.)

I'm with you on the second part. Hate the idea of paying for any FA starting pitcher, but if you're gonna do it go for the best, and I hate the idea of trading multiple stud prospects for a starting pitcher even more. It's not like they drop ticket prices or NESN carriage fees when the payroll is "low".

Mark Trumbo to Baltimore for a backup catcher. Guess DiPoto just couldn't drum up the same interest he did the last time he traded Trumbo.

Yeah if you're going to pay that much, it is probably in your best interest to get a guy who has under a 5 ERA in the playoffs. I know the sample size is small, but we now have several years of data showing that.

I'm pretty sure that Cueto and Greinke just celebrated Price's deal last night. It certainly makes me less than optimistic about another high level, front line starter coming to LA.

We can't know for sure, but Lester seemed willing to sign earlier and for less (or at least, he said as much), and the Red Sox low-balled him with that $70/4 offer. He was as good as gone after that.

Edit: They could have had both guys (or Lester and another Price-like ace) if they made Lester a serious offer and refrained from making some of the other terrible deals they they made last off-season.

You're really going to acknowledge sample size but then imply "years" of data make it mean something? :lol: It's 63 IP with a 59/12 K:BB ratio and a 1.16 WHIP. Jon Lester had a phenomenal postseason track record with us, and since he left his teams haven't won a playoff game he started and he has an ERA around 5.50. Did he magically lose his clutch ability, or can we acknowledge that he got a little lucky during his 5 starts in 2013 and a little unlucky in his 3 since?

Besides, didn't you get the memo from the last two postseasons? Bullpens win playoff games, so Price only has to get us there and then Kimbrel will single-handedly win it! ;)

Really the only thing that matters with these massive pitcher contracts is if the team can still be competitive in the event of a big injury or massive drop off in performance after a couple years. Even the Yankees seem to have been affected by the $25MM+ they owe CC.

Was listening to the radio earlier talking about the Mets having a billion dollar rotation at this rate, and how this would be the best time for the Wilpons to finally sell before they put themselves on the hook for those commitments a few years from now. I would approve.

Of course he would've accepted less that winter - his track record wasn't that of an "ace". Jon Lester was coming off ERA's of 3.47/4.82/3.75 and a K/9 that had fallen from 9.7/10.0 in 2009/2010 to 8.5/7.3/7.5 in his last 3 seasons when they offered him 4/$70. I liked Jon Lester - homegrown guy, seemed like a better person than Beckett/Lackey/Buchholz, ate innings and had shown times when he'd been a borderline ace/top #2 - but truth is he'd sucked for 2012 and the first half of 2013 before having a very good 2nd half/postseason run. The idea that he was a sure thing, or that 4/$70 was an outrageous low-ball offer is pure hindsight (And it shouldn't matter but we had gotten burned on a Beckett extension, the Lackey deal still looked bad at the time, and obviously Dice-K hadn't worked out). You had to bet that an innings-eater who had just posted a half season out of line with his career norms would keep that up. Btw they did pretty much exactly that the next winter with Rick Porcello, except he was younger and coming off a good full season. Most people hated it at the time, and it looks terrible now (although I think it'll end up like the Lackey contract where by the end it looks like just an average deal.)

I'm not sure what the point is in talking about perfect hindsight scenarios (especially because there is no chance they would've signed another big ticket FA starter if they had Jon Lester signed coming off his 2014 or 2015 seasons.) Sure, we could've signed Lester at the perfect time the winter before, or added Scherzer and Andrew Miller and Chase Headley last winter, but we could also have Shin Soo-Choo, Nick Swisher, CC Sabathia or James Shields on the books - all guys we pursued pretty heavily only to be outbid. You can't just pick and choose which guys you wish they'd signed after the fact.

It's also worth pointing out that Lester still came down to the Red Sox, Giants and Cubs, and ended up picking the Cubs who offered $20m more. The idea that he had no interest in Boston "after they low-balled" him is patently untrue. Although, if you want to argue that they low-balled him by only offering 6/$135 at the end, go ahead.

Seeing these ridiculous offers to some of these starters makes me all the more happy with the way the Royals structure their staff. The starter salaries on some of these guys are going to blow up some teams for years to come. I'd rather see $10M starters paired with a couple of $4-7M bullpen guys any day. Much more room for error if an injury occurs.

Well it was also the $20m+ they owe Teixeira, and A-Rod (although those two ended up playing remarkably well and stayed healthier than predicted) and Ellsbury and Tanaka (who did not). Plus years of trading away most prospects, drafting poorly, and not really spending money internationally until 2 years ago :) Unless Dombrowski goes crazy, Red Sox should have cost-controlled guys starting at CF/RF/SS/C and 1-2 rotation spots for the next few years. Xander/Mookie don't hit FA until after the Hanley/Sandoval/Porcello contracts are off the books.

The opt-out math does get a little funny, and I generally hate them on principle. Weirdly though, it's not a huge injury that brings the downside risk - that gets covered by insurance if it's career ending. It's enough injuries (or just performance dropoff) that has him pitching below average, but still garnering a rotation spot that would kill us. a.k.a. the Yankees with CC this past year or what the Tigers appear to be in line for with $28 million man Justin Verlander for the next 4-5 seasons. Hopefully it doesn't get to that though, Price has 3 good seasons, then opts-out in 2018 and we debate all over again about whether he's worth 7/$210 before having a bitter, acrimonious parting of ways.

:thumbsup: to Boston for outbidding St. Louis. Much like with the Angels and Pujols, the Cards were saved from a potentially crippling deal with an older player by being outbid.

The St. Louis Cardinals finished runner-up in the David Price sweepstakes. #STLCards

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 1, 2015

Wow. That seems a really terrible idea. The pitching is already great and they'll have a lot of contracts to deal with over the term of Price's deal.

But as a Reds fan, I'm disappointed they didn't take on that anchor.

The Cards will actually have some payroll flexibility coming up. The Post Dispatch did a nice story about how they will have a bunch of money off the books after this season (ie, Holiday) and how their billion dollar TV deal starts in 2018. So, the rumor was they could sign Heyward or Chris Davis and a big-name pitcher. Still, I'd rather try and avoid a $200 million deal on a 30-year old pitcher with a spotty postseason record.

There are some pretty big red flags on Zimmerman. K/9 and FB velocity have been trending down the last 2 seasons. Might be nothing, but when pitchers go under the knife that's the type of warning sign everyone loves to point to after the fact. Fwiw, Yovani Gallardo and Jeff Samardzija also have the K rate dropoff - though I still really like Samardzija as a buy-"low" candidate. Wei-Yin Chen is another guy I really like for the amount of PR he gets. No he doesn't have a classic profile, but he's no fluke, and if a team gets him at 4/$50 that's a steal imo.

With the great tradition the Royals have they are certainly going about it the "right way." More teams should model the Royals history of long term success.

So were you mad about signing Matt Holliday, and will you be upset if the Cardinals drop a ton on Chris Davis? Just curious where you're drawing that line.

The Braves are the only team in baseball that hates great young talent! They gave away Simmons. That trade should get vetoed.

They've increased their win total for six straight years. One can argue they had nowhere to go but up, but they've had a great trend lately. If they manage to extend it to a seventh year, it'll be VERY impressive. Bar's a bit high at this point.

Jay Bruce has a very interesting list. Just seems random or something. Yankees AND Red Sox???? On the other hand he has a bunch of small markets in there.

Last week, Reds outfielder Jay Bruce had an opportunity to update his limited no-trade clause by changing the list of eight teams that he can block deals to. However, the 28-year-old decided to stand pat and keep the same clubs on his veto list, as Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com writes. Bruce can block any proposed deal that would send him to the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins,

So he doesn't wanna be in the AL East unless it's the Orioles?