FOFC GroupThink 2024: We take over the (beloved) Arizona Cardinals
 

Fresh off our GRAND SUCCESSES of recent years:

FOFC GroupThink 2022: We take over the NY Football Giants

FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

...we now set our sights on a goal, to, uhh, idano, what do we do down here in cactusville anyway? RED STORM RISING or something? Maybe that needs to be part of the plan, let's get some of them Mad Men in here to help us sell this turd sandwich.

Looking forward to helping out Thomkal’s beloved Cardinals. When we step in, the team makes the playoffs. Can we do it again?

god knows we need all the help we can get. A suggestion-only schedule teams who no one thinks they can beat.

...and we start right off by fumbling the #2 overall draft pick. Nice. Could make the QB decision that much stickier, right?

yeah but i don't think that QB is the way to go-Murray appears to have recovered from his injury and they have so many other holes to fill.


The cards in my view have given up way too early on good talent on their team only to see them go on and have good success elsewhere, especially on the defensive side. so they need to keep players like Budda Baker who can be difference makers.

yayayaya I was going to make this if someone else didn't! Love those birds! Let's make them chirp!

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the obvious dream, but he may be gone. If one of the top 2 QBs is still available I'd look for a trade partner and see how many picks I could get for next year. I'd feel pretty good having 20-22 picks over the next two drafts.

I agree. QB isn't quite.. solved.. per se (I need to see another good year from Murray before I say he's as good as people said he was), but the team has a LOT of need. Trade down, get as many high draft picks as possible, and look to kickstart a fast rebuild with needed positions.

ok, the internal trend feels like we stick with QB Murray, but I'd like to have a clearer sense of the contract/cap implications of a trade before doing so...

Kyler Murray Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

wow, Kyler is only 26, yeah...

Well, a post-June 1 trade looks like it hits the Cards for "only" $13m a year for 24-25-26 ... that is a surprisingly team-friendly situation, in my mind.

My one vote here is still in play for the "move on from Murray and draft a QB here," FWIW. Not fully sold, but I'm not entirely in on him - and I'm not sure what we are trying to build here merits a top-tier QB salary for the 24 and 25 seasons. I'm thinking our focus is on being the obvious up-and-coming team for 2026 (thinking the 21-22-23 Lions arc).

...and a trade for Murray would yield the Cards...what, do we think? I'm guessing maybe one first round pick, or possibly something like the McCaffrey deal with more than one later picks. I don't think it's a Russ-like haul (two firsts plus players) but more like the Rodgers deal. 26, still coming off an injury but playing pretty well, but on a massive contract that would mostly be inherited.

Would you then trade up? I don't think you want the third-best QB which might be what you get picking fourth. Is Daniels an upgrade?

From a Chicago perspective, I'd love to have Arizona as a trade partner. If I can get the two firsts plus that fills a lot of holes.

I will try to think about it this way... let's say that whatever we could get for Murray would be enough to move up from our pick to 1.1 to get the top QB on our board. For now, that doesn't feel too fanciful, but maybe it's a bit optimistic. Maybe I will mentally add in a 2025 2nd as well.

But that's how I'm thinking about it, I guess.

Mentally my rankings are about here:

BEST
.
.
.
-build around top drawer rookie QB
-build around Murray on current contract
.
.
.
-fill-in at QB while we build, develop long tern QB plan later
.
.
.
WORST

This is probably not needed on a sports management sim site but we have to consider salary and everything else in a Kyler Murray deal. This article from Bleacher Report suggest that Kyler's contract makes him untradeable. I don't know about all that but we might want to temper our excitement on what we might get back from a Kyler trade.

Aside: Where do we discuss what we think the Bears should do with the first pick, another first rounder, and Justin "I-don't-know-what-we-have-here" Fields? Dueling GroupThink threads?!?!?

Do we hire a new coach that was recently fired from his college job?

I would think the Justin Fields (and whatever else) could go well in the general NFL thread.

i just think there in no rookie QB that can duplicate what murray can do right now. just look at the qb's who went to carolina and houston this draft-they are a crap shoot-so I think the cards need to build around murray at this point. Go after some quality free agents and fill in with the draft.

Not to mention that even if the rookie QB pans out (always debatable), the first few years of his rookie deal are going to be wasted building up the rest of the roster. Cards are 9th in available cap space for next season, so there's plenty of room to build the roster out, even without moving on from Murray.

I think the play is keep Murray, build the roster out and move back where feasible to continue to accumulate future picks (except with the 4th overall pick if Harrison is still there).

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't think Murray is that bad. If I'm the Cardinals, I'm going hard for MJH.

Let's look at Murray:

154-238 (64.7% Completed), 1537 yards (6.5 avg) 9 TD, 5 INT #17 in the league in QBR.

Not super great, but not bad, especially when you consider he was working back up to live game time.

4 years left on the 5 Year deal he signed: It'd be an $81 million cap hit to drop him (pre-June 1, after June 1 it's a $48 million next year, $10 or so million the three remaining hits)

So, obviously cutting him is a non-starter.

Right now, they have #4 and #17 (Houston's) as well as Murray. You're probably not getting a first rounder back for Murray. Is it worth spending the draft capital to move up to the top 3 to get one of the QB's in this draft?

I don't think so. Instead, 2024 should be Murray's make or break year. If it's break, you're likely drafting high again anyway. If he makes it, his contract is not as much as an issue. (relatively speaking, a big name QB is going to cost AT LEAST that much).

Instead, look to improve around him. Marvin Harrison Jr, is probably the best play at #4 if available, and then top OL talent middle of the first round to protect him (remember, he's missed three games at least a year due to injury). I would also look to see if Brissett, Joe Flacco, or someone at that level to be the backup, just in case.

In the offseason, they have about $53 million in cap space, so again, let's work on building up.

If you can get Pennix with one of the third-rounders that's a nice development plan. I don't know if he'll last that long, though.

I'm not high on a 6th year senior that's going to be 24.5 at the start of his rookie year. He's going to get drafted way too high.

My initial feeing is keep Murray and draft the best non-QB at 4.

subject to change, etc.

Unless we're willing to trade up to number one or two, I don't think the the third QB overall is worth giving up on Murray and the headache of having to trade him.

I just ran two three-round mocks through PFF and Marvin Harrison JR was available both times. I don't think we can rely on that, but, as of now, it looks like the fourth pick overall will either be MHJ or tackle out of Penn State.

If we had a choice between Maye and Williams and Murray, I think it'd be a harder call.

I'm not high on him as a first rounder, but for a team with three third rounders and a need for a backup, I think he'd be a nice fit. I like the fact that he's older and has experience in multiple systems. He's accurate, runs progressions well, and is always calm. He'd be a nice backup with the potential to start if Murray is hurt and he wouldn't cost much.

Admittedly this probably means you start with a QB controversy and that isn't ideal.

Let's get the Titans former head coach in here and lead us to victory!

Overall, I'm fine daydreaming about getting MHJr but it's probably more productive to heavily consider the seemingly likely situation that pick 4 comes up with him and the top two QBs all off the board.

That puts us at the start of a new "tier" (as I see it) and that's usually a provocative place to be selecting. We get a top-graded tackle, or a pass rusher, or the next best WR, most likely. Or we deal down if there's a demand.

I don't know if Gannon's the answer but I wouldn't replace him at this stage. Cards went 3-5 in their last 8 games once Murray got back. Most pre-season win projections had them as the worst team in the NFL. They played hard from the start of the season to the end. Guys not quitting says something to me about coaching.

I also look at the disaster that the Philadelphia defence was this season compared to last year and attribute at least some of that drop to Gannon's absence.

Jayden Daniels creeping into the top 2-3 slots in mock drafts is VERY good news for our Cardinals. Keep the hype machine rolling.

I just can't see MHJ getting to four, but if he's there he's the obvious pick. I think he's the most surefire prospect in the draft. He's big, fast, good hands, runs good routes, works hard, and has great pedigree. He's as close to a can't miss as comes.

Which is why I can't see him getting to four.

All three teams in the top three need quarterbacks, and there are three top quarterbacks available. If any of those teams don't want one of those three QBs, then they can get a ransom from someone who does. Unless one of those QB's fall on their face between now and the draft, they are going one, two, three.

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It may play out that way, but I'm not taking the third QB over MHJ

So the Patriots should keep rolling out Mac Jones?

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And if the Patriots don't want Jayden Daniels, the Falcons would happily trade up to get him. And I don't think they are the only ones.

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I don't think Daniels is anywhere close to a sure thing and I'd rather get a midQB like Baker Mayfield and then get the best WR available. If you pick Daniels you're all-in with that for the next three years. It's the kind of pick that gets GMs fired. Nobody will look back and blame a GM for picking Harrison.

Back to the Cards.

QB3 stock rising is excellent for us at 4. Increasing chances of us either getting MHJr or there being a desirable QB on the board for which someone may be willing to overpay (by the book). If we feel like there's a cliff effect after MHJr then that would be a really good thing...deal down to pick 10 and pick up "one of the tackles/edges" or whatever and accumulate other capital.

What if they got Big V to Head Coach!

If MHJ is there, he's the pick. I like trading down as there are a number of tackles and I don't think there's much difference between WR2 and WR5.

What about 4 for MIN 11, 42, & 109? If Daniels isn't the NE pick MIN would be a good team to lure up to take him.

IMO, by the time the draft is here, the consensus top three picks will be QBs.

Kyler and MHJr running around doing Kyler and MHJr things will be a Sunday Ticket staple.

I think I'm with you on both segments here. My ranked order:

Take WR Harrison and profit
Get a juicy trade-down deal for value this year or next, and take a quality guy
Take the top guy from our next tier

...and it sounds like this might be more or less consensus in the thread thus far.

Sadly the WR corps used to be one of the strongest, but now looks like one of the weakest. Guess it would depend on who fell to them at 4, and who might be willing to trade up for a QB if one of the top 3 is still available.

Do we have a good breakdown on what our team needs are?

I know WR is one and, based off PFF, OL, DL. LB and CB are, also, needs, but I don't know if its interior line, tackle, edge, interior defense, etc. It could just be all largely "all of the above".

With the raise of Jadyn Daniels and all of the picks we have in the first three rounds, a solid draft could really accelerate this rebuild. In some ways, it's not too terribly different than the Lions a few years ago. While no one (other than them) really thought they had the QB position locked up in Goff, they did and then were able to use that first draft - Sewell, McNeil, St. Brown, and others - to jump start the rebuild.

We have Murray at QB and if we hit on these early round picks, we could really be setting up something special for a while.

First question about the receiving corps, Marquise Brown is a pending free agent. I'm not in favor of pre-empting that by paying market price (or more) there, but that's potentially on the table for us as the incumbent.

I think I let him walk. While I really liked him coming out of college, I haven't been overly impressed by him in the NFL. With Michael Wilson coming on last year and the ability to draft MHJ, I think Brown is expendable and we can use our resources elsewhere.

We didn't trade a first round pick for him, that was the prior regime.

put the WR. WHo cares. There are 4 more crappy WR ready to play for nothing.

Looking only at his stats, he's averaging ~60 catches for ~650 yards and ~3 TDs for the Cards.

That seems very replaceable.

If he loves the desert, etc. and he's wiling to play for a team-friendly deal, then great. But assuming his assessment of his value is still based on 3 years ago, I think you let him hit the market.

dola: If MHJ is off the board, then having needs at CB and OT isn't the worst thing for this team b/c there seem to be some top guys at that position that could be justified at #4

This i agree with he really didn't show too much i think because he was injured a lot? He seems to have a bond/be friends with murray, so keeping him around if he doesn't break the bank is a possibility I guess.

Okay... I'll try to add something useful here. The last regime was unwilling to "eat their vegetables" and commit to unexciting spots like the OL (until last draft). So, let's have a look at the state of the OL right now... 2023 performance ratings from PFF:



(the three ratings visible are overall offense, then pass block, run block)

Here's the OTC analysis of our cap/contract situation:
Arizona Cardinals Salary Cap | Over the Cap

So, from that I take away:

T Parris Johnson is still penciled in as a long term asset, first year was okay, tackles tend to put it together in years 2-4, so... one spot down.

Veteran DJ Humphries, 30, sadly trimmed from the screenshot, sorry, rated just barely better than Johnson. Mediocre grade for a guy who's considered solid. $23m cap number for 2024. I think it's in play either to consider him part of the short term plan, or to explore moving him and getting younger, especially in a deep OT draft.

C Froholdt, 27, is a standard replacement-level IOL, making $3.8m next year and probably worth it, at least on a roster with a ton of other needs. So, keeper, I reckon.

RG Hernandez kinda similar... performance last year was solid, but he's costing $5.3m next year. Open to arguments either way here.

LG feels wide open. Wilkinson and Colon were both subpar, and are both free agents. If we keep both C and RG occupied by known quantity veterans, then maybe a 3rd/4th round pick at guard makes sense for us?

Humphries only frees 9 mil or so in cap space, so I'm not sure he's worth cutting now, but he frees up almost 16 mil after June 1, so that seems enticing.

One question with cap space though. Cap space to do what? It should never be an end to itself. One should always have some sort of a idea of what to do with it over the next couple of seasons.

So here's a strawman... team need appears to be interior DL. PFF says we might have something in young DT Roy Lopez, but little else of real value.

A top-of-market deal is likely coming for emerging star DT Justin Madubuike. It's going to take a lot of money and likely 4 years. Do we think that sort of move for us here, makes any sense?

I think JM is likely a good risk for a team in position to make such a move (thinking Houston, frex)... but with a losing record and a $50m QB, does it make sense for us here?

For easy reading, here's what OTC says is our overall 2024 cap situation:

Total Cap Liabilities: $218,364,582
Top 51: $196,020,670
Team Cap Space: $41,855,463

Offense: $126,647,216
Defense: $72,018,454
Special: $5,547,333

I don't think we are close enough to make a move like that.

I'm only cutting DJ if I can draft a solid tackle, which seems very possible with the first round picks. It' less I want to cut him and more I don't need a 23 mil bench player and almost anything I spend the money on is a better option.

I think the Cards should absolutely look for a big FA pickup. They are going to bring in a lot of guys in the draft and they need high character and high achieving role models around the locker room. And in the NFC there's no reason why they can't be a playoff team next year.

Early buzz is that the other two big WRs past MHJr would normally be WR1 in most other drafts.

If MHJr goes in the top three, then I wonder if one of our former teams (NYG) might be enticed to trade up from 6 to 4 to grab the third QB.

That keeps us in position to draft one of the two other stud WRs and lets us pick up a little extra draft sugar.

Or, if the the QBs go 1-3, then MHJr still seems like the "don't overthink it" pick.

dola

Or how about this. Daniel Jones has $35,000,000 fully guaranteed base salary this year. The Cards have a lot of cap space.

The Cards trade #4 to the Giants for #6 and Daniel Jones and a future first (for taking Jones contract off their hands).

Cards get a decent backup for Murry. Giants can move on and start anew with a rookie.

The only catch is that the Cards pick at 4, so the Giants could not be guaranteed to get one of the three QBs there . . .

So close.

So when we win the superbowl, we should NOT have a parade.

But do the Cards have anyone worth keeping for big bucks?

If MHJ is gone before 4 what about the late first rounder to Cincy for Tee Higgins?

Got an idea. Order some WRs from temu

What about something like-

Cards acquire Wilson, Jeudy and a Broncos 2nd for a 5th. The Broncos eat some amount of his guaranteed money(20 mil?) but not all of it. Wilson gets 2-3 million additional to accept the trade with the understanding he will be subsequently traded to a team of his choice. Arizona then gets a conditional 2025 4th for warehousing 20 mill or so retained salary on him in a trade when they ship him to Pitts or Min. Pick upgrades 1 round for Playoffs and elevates 1 more round for each playoff victory.

Cards end up with a usable WR, a second and an upside 2025 pick for 32 mil or so in cap space.

I would be very interested in something like that, if we could use the cap space as a bargaining tool. I think it's far fetched, but i like the spirit a ton and this sort of setup especially. Jeudy still feels to me like he could be unlocked and is a nice buy low candidate for someone roughly where we are in the build-up cycle.

https://snipboard.io/bYOsca.jpg
(image was huge, so just the link now)

First full run through. The PFF engine really skews toward the guys they grade highly, so this tends to bias the picks a lot that way.

Anyway, MHJr first T Alt went at pick 3) then a lot of logicals - assuming top needs are OL, DI, and CB.

I've heard they dissolve in rain, much like everything else from temu.

The Athletic takes a look at the top 10 picks after the combine. The Cards actually have the most draft capital coming into the draft, so i'm not sure a trade back is in our best interest depending on what the trade is. It really looks like they are going for WR Harrison with the 4th pick-and if he's gone maybe an OL?


What did we learn at the NFL combine about teams with top-10 draft picks? - The Athletic

If you order a QB from Temu you get Justin Fields

Fields is more Goodwill, gently used, Temu would be Zach Wilson

I hear Russell Wilson is available. Someone said he plans to win the super bowl.

The Athletic polled a six NFL executives to create a mock draft for the first 10 picks. The picks for the Cards were: 2 for MHJ (WR), 2 for Joe Alt (T), and 2 for Dallas Turner (Edge).

So, they're split among what appears to be our beloved team's three top needs: WR, offensive line, and some juice on defense.

In the mock, they ended up taking Dallas Turner.

I've run a lot of PFF mock drafts with the Cards and have never really entertained Turner.

It could make sense, I guess. The edge class is pretty thin, especially compared to the WR class. I am not sure how good the tackles are outside of the first round, but it could be possible to get a starting tackle with that second first round pick.

They are all needs for the Cards, so going with the dreaded 'best player available' would seem to be in play here. I'm still thinking they are going to go with MHJ, but i know they have talked to a couple OL men at the top of their list.

cards open up free agency by signing CB Sean Murphy-Bunting bringing much needed help to the secondary and DT Bilal nichols who i'm not familar with

From PFF instant analysis:

DI JUSTIN JONES SIGNS WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS
2023 PFF Grade: 49.3 (107th/130)
2023 PFF WAR: -0.02 (179th)
Fit/need grade: A
Value grade: C-
Contract: Three years, $30.1 million ($10.33 million per year), $19.75 million total guaranteed
PFF projected contract: N/A
Jones brings a high motor and was the Bears’ Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee in 2023, always quick to talk some trash and energize the defense. Nonetheless, this payday dramatically outpaces his down-to-down production. He does have some occasional splash plays that illustrate what made him a Day 2 draft pick, but this is probably the deal we view as the most player-friendly signing so far this offseason.

CB SEAN MURPHY-BUNTING SIGNS WITH ARIZONA CARDINALS
2023 PFF Grade: 57.6 (89th/127)
2023 PFF WAR: -0.02 (201st)
Fit/need grade: A
Value grade: C-
Contract: Three years, $25.5 million ($8.5 million per year), $17.5 million total guaranteed
PFF projected contract: One year, $4 million, $3.25 million total guaranteed
With the added and important context that there were virtually zero free-agent options at cornerback not nearing 30 years old, it makes sense that Murphy-Bunting was able to cash in big time. The former No. 39 overall pick has good size at 6-foot and 195 pounds, and he recorded four interceptions to go along with nine more pass breakups over the past two seasons. Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon used to coach defensive backs, so he’ll try to tap into Murphy-Bunting's physical gifts in his third stop.

Did a mock draft for the Cards... with MHL off the board I dealt down with Chicago getting their 1st next year and still getting DE Turner at pick 9:

https://snipboard.io/XnlQkH.jpg

Not in love with the Jonah Williams deal, but I guess that takes OT off of the draft board.

Yes and no-Cards also released T DJ Humphries who is recovering from a knee injury. So there was a need for a replacement there and I was reading about Williams that he has almost never been hurt-maybe missed 1 game? So if he can keep that up, could be a very good signing,

well this was unexpected-falcons trading desmond ridder to the Cards for WR Rondale Moore.

With this trade, I have to think the cards will draft a WR in round 1

All signs seem to point that way. It has to be WR or maybe tackle.

You are very welcome to Ridder. The secret to him is only start him if you want to get your coach/OC fired.

Seems like WR in ink now. Yup. If not MHJr then just take whichever you you like best, or this year especially, maybe trade down a bit (again) and still do so.

Too early for that in Arizona. :) Cards didn't really have a good option for a backup with rookie Tune looking pretty awful in his start last year. moore never really showed flashes that he was going to be a good wr, so maybe the change of scenery will help them both

It is the right year for it. You are not going wrong with MHJ, Nabers or Odunze. Any of those three should be a solid choice.

Ridder is a coaches son and seems to be very smart. He has an arm, he has speed, he just doesn't seem to have the ability to process fast enough for the league. He also just can't take a hit and hold on to the ball. IDK if that can be coached out of him, because I have heard arguments it just might be because of his arm length on his frame.

If Minnesota calls and offers Justin Jefferson straight up for the number four, and Jefferson and his agent want a market setting contract, but not star QB money, the Cardinals should jump on that, right?

What about number 4 and your first next year?

right

I'd have to really think about 30 mil per year or MHJ and 20 mil worth of FA. In terms of wins, how much of a difference would there be?

ftfy, $20M isn't what it used to be

I'd pick Jefferson over any of the other draft eligible receivers, I just think MHJ is as close to can't miss as we've seen. I'd be very surprised if he isn't a multiple All-Pro over his career. Given that, I'd have to really think about what I could do with him and the money over the next four years.

I also worry that Murray as QB limits the peak production of any WR.

Everybody seems to be agreeing that MHJ will be there at 4. That alone makes this draft a big winner for AZ.

And if you want to trade down, there will be opportunities. The Vikings are going to be looking to move ahead of the Giants. The Cards are probably going to have the option between both of them and possibly another. If not you, then almost certainly the Chargers will.

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Did a 4-round mock draft for the Cards and was open to trading down... got what feels like quite a haul here:

12.
Laiatu Latu
EDGE UCLA

27.
Adonai Mitchell
WR Texas

35.
T.J. Tampa
CB Iowa State

66.
Kris Jenkins
DT Michigan

71.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger
OC Georgia

90.
Jermaine Burton
WR Alabama

105.
MarShawn Lloyd
RB USC

2025 DEN 1st
2025 DEN 2nd

via Just a moment...

and another one with no trades:

4.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR Ohio State

27.
Johnny Newton
DT Illinois

35.
Christian Haynes
OG UConn

66.
Bralen Trice
EDGE Washington

71.
D.J. James
CB Auburn

90.
Audric Estime
RB Notre Dame

104.
Josh Newton
CB TCU

I think Marshawn Lloyd is going to be a very, very productive NFL back if given the chance.

Getting that Denver 1st and 2nd could be a real gamechanger. Basically a repeat of CHI/CAR from this draft.

That first mock draft is just fire. If they could get that and those picks, they would be golden.

Insane value using the PFF Mock Drafter, and just taking need-influenced BPA:



Absurd.