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-   -   Werewolf LXII -- The BCS (Racer and Swaggs win) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=62336)

ntndeacon 12-05-2007 05:12 PM

Challenge chesapeake

Vote molson

Racer 12-05-2007 05:13 PM

Okay, here is the record breakdown by conference

Conference 1
Chesopeake 1-1 100 points
Molson 1-1 40 points
Lathum 1-1 42 points
Path12 0-2 -10 points

Conference 2
1. claphamsa 2-0 140 points
2. ntndeacon 1-1 100 points
3. Mr. Wednesday 1-1 90 points
4. St. Cronin 2-0 62 points

Conference 3
1. Racer 1-1 90 points
1. Barkeep 1-1 90 points
3. Chief Rum 1-1 65 points
4. Swaggs 1-1 48 points

Conference 4
1. Jeheinz 2-0 190 points
2. Sndvls 0-2 0 points
3. Anxiety 0-2 0 points
4. Render 0-2 -10 points

The people who received 10 point hits the first day were Chief Rum (conference 3), Render (conference 4), and path 12 (conference 1).

The people who received 10 point hits the second day were Barkeep (conference 3), myself (conference 3), and Mr. Wednesday (conference 2).

The only person who hasn't received a 10 point deduction in my conference at this point is Swaggs. I'm guessing the detractors are the ones hitting people with the 10 point deductions (since they don't seem to be tied to any roles). Of course this doesn't mean Swaggs is a detractor. They could just be trying to trick us.

Also in addition to the seer in my conference, conference 2's seer also has not chosen to throw a game at least one of the days.

Racer 12-05-2007 05:14 PM

Oh I didn't see that St. Cronin had already updated the standings.

RendeR 12-05-2007 05:16 PM

I don't see how revealing everything hurts the good guys much, sure the detratores know who we are, they know that already, but if we all reveal we know who they are too and can keep voting sanctions accordingly to keep them out of the BCS game.

Racer 12-05-2007 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR (Post 1608516)
I don't see how revealing everything hurts the good guys much, sure the detratores know who we are, they know that already, but if we all reveal we know who they are too and can keep voting sanctions accordingly to keep them out of the BCS game.


Barkeep, you're on right now. What are your thoughts on publicly revealing the roles in our conference? We already revealed them to each other which means the detractors probably know our roles also.

RendeR 12-05-2007 05:20 PM

I'd like to start a list of Scanned people and the results:

Please post who you scanned and what they turned up as:


I scanned Lathum, he scanned villager.

Mr. Wednesday 12-05-2007 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer (Post 1608512)
The people who received 10 point hits the second day were Barkeep (conference 3), myself (conference 3), and Mr. Wednesday (conference 2).

And claphamsa, also in conference 2.

As I said before, either ntndeacon is the detractor in our conference (and also is either the detractor seer, which I doubt, or is being erroneously vouched by Alan/now path12), or the detractor took a -10 in order to foster trust.

cronin's continuing crusade against me is starting to make me a little suspicious.

Mr. Wednesday 12-05-2007 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR (Post 1608516)
I don't see how revealing everything hurts the good guys much, sure the detratores know who we are, they know that already, but if we all reveal we know who they are too and can keep voting sanctions accordingly to keep them out of the BCS game.

Uh, no, actually, we don't know who they are, because they all have roles as well.

I don't see that we have a huge amount to gain from knowing what anybody is aside from the scouts... among them, one is an unidentifiable detractor, but we should be OK if we can keep them in the bottom half of the conference. Everyone else... well, so we know that I'm a lobbyist, what good does that do you, exactly?

st.cronin 12-05-2007 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1608521)
And claphamsa, also in conference 2.

As I said before, either ntndeacon is the detractor in our conference (and also is either the detractor seer, which I doubt, or is being erroneously vouched by Alan/now path12), or the detractor took a -10 in order to foster trust.

cronin's continuing crusade against me is starting to make me a little suspicious.


I don't have a crusade against you; I'm playing to win my conference. Maybe that's too simple an approach, but I feel its the best way to play.

Racer 12-05-2007 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1608522)
Uh, no, actually, we don't know who they are, because they all have roles as well.

I don't see that we have a huge amount to gain from knowing what anybody is aside from the scouts... among them, one is an unidentifiable detractor, but we should be OK if we can keep them in the bottom half of the conference. Everyone else... well, so we know that I'm a lobbyist, what good does that do you, exactly?


Okay, lets say you're a detractor and a seer scans you and announces that you are a detractor. Since we know the detractors have exactly one of each role, we would then know every other lobbyist is a good guy and then the seers wouldn't have to scan them.

Racer 12-05-2007 05:42 PM

Okay, so I feel the best route to go in terms of getting points is to play a team with a similar amount of points to me so

Challenge Mr. Wednesday

SnDvls 12-05-2007 05:56 PM

challenge 75

this is the best way for me to get some points and try to catch up to others without helping others as well.

claphamsa 12-05-2007 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer (Post 1608512)
Okay, here is the record breakdown by conference

Conference 1
Chesopeake 1-1 100 points
Molson 1-1 40 points
Lathum 1-1 42 points
Path12 0-2 -10 points

Conference 2
1. claphamsa 2-0 140 points
2. ntndeacon 1-1 100 points
3. Mr. Wednesday 1-1 90 points
4. St. Cronin 2-0 62 points

Conference 3
1. Racer 1-1 90 points
1. Barkeep 1-1 90 points
3. Chief Rum 1-1 65 points
4. Swaggs 1-1 48 points

Conference 4
1. Jeheinz 2-0 190 points
2. Sndvls 0-2 0 points
3. Anxiety 0-2 0 points
4. Render 0-2 -10 points

The people who received 10 point hits the first day were Chief Rum (conference 3), Render (conference 4), and path 12 (conference 1).

The people who received 10 point hits the second day were Barkeep (conference 3), myself (conference 3), and Mr. Wednesday (conference 2).

The only person who hasn't received a 10 point deduction in my conference at this point is Swaggs. I'm guessing the detractors are the ones hitting people with the 10 point deductions (since they don't seem to be tied to any roles). Of course this doesn't mean Swaggs is a detractor. They could just be trying to trick us.

Also in addition to the seer in my conference, conference 2's seer also has not chosen to throw a game at least one of the days.


I received both a 10 and a 50 point hit last ngiht

Racer 12-05-2007 08:04 PM

I've thought this through. If all conferences reveal their conferences roles, then the probability of each conference being able to win should increase while the probability of the detractors winning should decrease. The reason for this is because if a scout finds out that a detractor in a specific conference is lobbyist and a second scout confirms it (since there is one bad scout), then the three good scouts don't need to scout any of the remaining lobbyists since they all have to be good since there is only one lobbyist who is a detractor. Thus revealing roles can eliminate people from being detractors without ever scouting them assuming the scouts hit just one detractor. Here are the roles in my conference:

Barkeep: Lobbyist
Chief Rum: Saboteur
Racer: Equipment Manager
Swaggs: Scout

Again, whoever the detractor is in my conference probably already gave this information to the other detractors since everyone in my conference role revealed to one another.

Abe Sargent 12-05-2007 08:10 PM

I challenge path

Racer 12-05-2007 08:11 PM

Schedule Team 50

in case Mr. Wednesday doesn't accept my challenge and

Vote Swaggs

He definitely didn't throw the game in week one to scout someone since he won and I haven't received a PM with any information he might have gained in week two so I can't comment on that. He could just have been busy lately. However, everyone except him in my conference has also received ten points deductions so far although I think there is a chance the detractors could be setting him up.

st.cronin 12-05-2007 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer (Post 1608607)
I've thought this through. If all conferences reveal their conferences roles, then the probability of each conference being able to win should increase while the probability of the detractors winning should decrease. The reason for this is because if a scout finds out that a detractor in a specific conference is lobbyist and a second scout confirms it (since there is one bad scout), then the three good scouts don't need to scout any of the remaining lobbyists since they all have to be good since there is only one lobbyist who is a detractor. Thus revealing roles can eliminate people from being detractors without ever scouting them assuming the scouts hit just one detractor. Here are the roles in my conference:

Barkeep: Lobbyist
Chief Rum: Saboteur
Racer: Equipment Manager
Swaggs: Scout

Again, whoever the detractor is in my conference probably already gave this information to the other detractors since everyone in my conference role revealed to one another.


So did Swaggs throw his game yesterday, or did he lose randomly?

Racer 12-05-2007 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1608612)
So did Swaggs throw his game yesterday, or did he lose randomly?


I have no idea. I haven't received a PM from him.

st.cronin 12-05-2007 08:19 PM

Ok. Well I'll just say that in our conference we know who the scout is, but not who he has scanned (if anybody). We're still working on whether its a good idea to let that out.

Lathum 12-05-2007 08:20 PM

schedule team 36

chesapeake 12-05-2007 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer (Post 1608512)
The people who received 10 point hits the first day were Chief Rum (conference 3), Render (conference 4), and path 12 (conference 1).

The people who received 10 point hits the second day were Barkeep (conference 3), myself (conference 3), and Mr. Wednesday (conference 2).


Just to be complete, St. Cronin also got hit on day 1 and Claphamsa and jeheinz got hit on day 2.

Mr. Wednesday 12-05-2007 11:00 PM

Racer, unless I were to play one of the teams with 100 points or more (and on their side, I don't see why they would want to play me), I get more benefit from playing one of the team XX's. If I play you, I have a 50/50 chance of winning 45 pts. If I play team 50, I have a 50/50 chance of winning 50 pts. (I'm actually making a less-than-max-EV play by scheduling team 60, but I rather go for the bigger total...)

Mr. Wednesday 12-05-2007 11:01 PM

Dola, that is, jeheinz, who I've already played, and claphamsa, who's in my own conference, might benefit by playing me, but they're off the table for obvious reasons.

Swaggs 12-05-2007 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin (Post 1608612)
So did Swaggs throw his game yesterday, or did he lose randomly?


I lost randomly.

Racer 12-05-2007 11:38 PM

I changed my mind. I'm not ready to vote to sanction someone in my own conference yet.

Unvote Swaggs
Vote claphamsa

Just going off what Mr. Wednesday said earlier.

Racer 12-05-2007 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1608705)
Racer, unless I were to play one of the teams with 100 points or more (and on their side, I don't see why they would want to play me), I get more benefit from playing one of the team XX's. If I play you, I have a 50/50 chance of winning 45 pts. If I play team 50, I have a 50/50 chance of winning 50 pts. (I'm actually making a less-than-max-EV play by scheduling team 60, but I rather go for the bigger total...)


Ah that makes sense. For some reason I was thinking the winner would be getting 90 points.

Chief Rum 12-06-2007 12:47 AM

All right, another set of mass actions...

Public Poll

1. Racer
2. Barkeep
3. Chief Rum
4. Swaggs
5. path12


Sanctions...

VOTE NTNDEACON

And I will play...

SCHEDULE TEAM 40

Racer 12-06-2007 06:19 AM

Now that I'm actually awake and have reread the rules I'll go ahead and officially

Unchallenge Mr. Wednesday

claphamsa 12-06-2007 06:30 AM

challenge team 79

Alan T 12-06-2007 07:04 AM

Schedule team 40

Vote jeheinz72
- obviously with such a huge lead, they must have alumnis paying highschoolers to commit to their school!

Poll:

#1 Notre Dame
#2 jeheinz72
#3 claphasma
#4 st.cronin
#5 chesapeake

Passacaglia 12-06-2007 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T (Post 1608759)
Schedule team 40

Vote jeheinz72
- obviously with such a huge lead, they must have alumnis paying highschoolers to commit to their school!

Poll:

#1 Notre Dame
#2 jeheinz72
#3 claphasma
#4 st.cronin
#5 chesapeake


Sorry -- Notre Dame doesn't get a vote!

Lathum 12-06-2007 09:05 AM

vote Jheinze

Alan T 12-06-2007 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 1608799)
Sorry -- Notre Dame doesn't get a vote!


That is fine, those votes can remain as an indication on how all of the smaller schools should be voting. Lead by example, I always say.

chesapeake 12-06-2007 09:21 AM

Accept ntndeacon

molson 12-06-2007 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chesapeake (Post 1608482)
I do not believe that Alan T -- now path12 -- is the detractor. All the work and advice that Alan provided as a member of my conference appeared to me to be pretty useful and ultimately hurt the wolves. Lathum cannot be the evil seer, as our conference's seer is well known, leaving Molson and myself as the possible detractors. It ain't me. So if RendeR is telling the truth, than Molson is a detractor.

My only worry is this. Lathum and Molson are about tied for second in my conference (42 and 40 PPs respectively). This could be a ploy by the wolves to help Lathum cement his position in 2nd place with the hopes that he would secure the BCS at-large bid. That seems a bit far-fetched to me for day 3, however, as many things can change between now and then.

Vote Molson


My first thought here is that this clears things up and I need to vote chesapeake for sanctions. But I'm also always suspcicious of AlanT, even when he's helpful (because he's always helpful). Though that may be stretching it in this particular game, and I haven't digested everything they way I need to at this point.

I don't really have much better to go on anywhere else, though I'm also not a big fan of trying to impose sanctions falsely on someone in my own conference. That's something that could be the difference between us getting an at-large bit later on.

So I'll keep my non-sanction voting for now, though I might revisit it in a close vote

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

CHALLENGE 65

PUBLIC POLLL (Just going with my conference and then the overall points leader)
1. Lathum
2. Path12
3. Molson
4. Chesopeake
5. Jeheinz

molson 12-06-2007 09:34 AM

Shit - no idea why that posted 3 times - permission to delete 2?

Passacaglia 12-06-2007 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 1608815)
Shit - no idea why that posted 3 times - permission to delete 2?


That's fine. I was only going to count one of them, anyway. Nice job trying to trick me, though! :p

molson 12-06-2007 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 1608817)
That's fine. I was only going to count one of them, anyway. Nice job trying to trick me, though! :p


I can't get nothing past you.

2 Duplicate posts deleted.

st.cronin 12-06-2007 09:48 AM

CHALLENGE TEAM 45

Swaggs 12-06-2007 09:59 AM

Anyone want to schedule an OOC game with me?

First come, first serve.

Barkeep49 12-06-2007 10:50 AM

For the record: I delete multiple posts whenever I catch them.

Alan T 12-06-2007 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Post 1608855)
For the record: I delete multiple posts whenever I catch them.


How am I supposed to up my postcount then? :(

SnDvls 12-06-2007 11:10 AM

public poll

1. RendeR
2. Path
3. SnDvls
4. Anxiety
5. Lathum

vote no sanctions
(at this point)

going with my same voting pattern as last time

Mr. Wednesday 12-06-2007 11:16 AM

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

Public poll:
1. jeheinz72
2. Mr. Wednesday
3. claphamsa
4. chesapeake
5. Barkeep49

path12 12-06-2007 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anxiety (Post 1608609)
I challenge path



Sorry, I can't see where it's a good idea for me to accept challenges.

SCHEDULE TEAM 20

path12 12-06-2007 11:29 AM

Finally caught up. I've already been outed as the scout in my conference, so I just want the other scouts to know that both my first two scans were in conference #2, as will today's -- so I will know the detractor in that conference by the end of the day.

I'm not coming out publicly yet with who has been scanned though until I get a bit more feel as to what's what.

path12 12-06-2007 11:32 AM

Why are we voting jeheinz in the public poll? Doesn't it make a case towards him being the detractor by being 2-0 while the rest of his conf is 0-2 and 0 or -10 points?

Mr. Wednesday 12-06-2007 11:38 AM

At this point, the public poll doesn't matter, so I don't care if I might be voting for a detractor. I'll care a lot more once the poll counts.

Abe Sargent 12-06-2007 11:38 AM

Challenge Team 33

path12 12-06-2007 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday (Post 1608885)
At this point, the public poll doesn't matter, so I don't care if I might be voting for a detractor. I'll care a lot more once the poll counts.


Gotcha. OK then.

PUBLIC POLL
1) Chesapeake
2) Lathum
3) Molson
4) Mr W.
5) ntndeacon


VOTE JEHEINZ


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