Island of Misfit Toys, Take 6.3 - and an invitation to join in
 

It's been quite a while since I played an IMT career, and a good deal has changed since I did so. I also have fallen pretty well behind the curve in terms of gameplanning, but from what I hear the more recent FOF game is more welcoming of the concept of "plan around your talent" that seems fairly attractive to me for this sort of thing. Anyway, I'm thinking about giving it a whirl.

Anyhow, I have set up an empty cupboard career -- playing in the Solecismized NFL, a QuikSim through 2009, and starting right after the 2010 draft with the empty-roster Buffalo Bills.

I am intrigued enough by this idea that I thought I'd post the game files, and see if anyone else might be interested in playing along. I honestly don't know what pace I might be able to keep... but we'll see what happens.

Anyway... if you're interested in a different take on FOF, doing some different evaluation of players (a lower grade of guys than you're probably used to), and maybe some collaboration or at least discussion, I'd welcome you to download the files here, and offer your thoughts on what to do from here. I can volunteer that historically, in my IMT careers, the first year tends to put in place an awful lot of guys who stick around for a decade (usually for lack of preferred alternatives) - so year one tends to be pretty important.

If you'd rather just look in and comment, that's fine too, of course. I haven't had a ton of FOF time of late, and it's my hope that I can maybe learn a bit more about the new game with this effort.

Oh, for the uninitiated, the Island of Misfit Toys concept is to build a team completely around undrafted rookie free agents. No player will join this team other than as a rookie who went undrafted. As you might imagine, I have turned off GM firing for this career, as this is usually a pretty long haul toward respectability. In previous versions, I have won titles with IMT teams, but if often felt much more like an exercise in happenstance... landing a creeper or six at the right positions was the real way to get somewhere. That may still be the case, but one thing I always find in these IMT careers is that I learn something about the lower-level players -- especially since many of them are getting tons of playing time, unlike on a more conventional team. So, in case you were wondering what the concept is -- there you have it.

A few previous attempts at (or discussion of) the same concept:

FOF 2004 - Return to the Island of Misfit Toys - Front Office Football Central

FOF4 - Island of Misfit Toys - Front Office Football Central

Before I let the thought get away, I will plant a seed right away. Before I exited the draft screen, I sorted the remaining QB by Solecismic test score, expecting just to note the top handful of guys so I could go look them up -- as I fully expect this team to be a "try not to lose the game" style, at least initially. Anyway, the top of the heap was this guy...who turns out to have four blue combines to go along with that 38 test score.



So, left to my own devices... I'd probably say that this guy was a lock to creep at least a bit in camp, and I would be thinking he's the very likely opening day starter. I suspect most of those zero-looking bars are phony, but I haven't given thought to what he might eventually look like, based on those combines. He does have pretty reasonable sense rush skills (a true rating) so it's at least possible to be thinking about an offensive line with mostly run-blocking skills.

Just a quick thought...

Okay... let's see if we can start off with another "maybe you didn't know this" tidbit. Did you know that after the draft, your scout actually sees the current and future ratings, bar-by-bar, of every rookie? All *we* see is the blue (or orange) bars projecting some sort of distorted future projection... but the scout already sees what he thinks is really going on. Now, how do we get him to cough up some of that information?

Work with me here...

Do a Recommend of free agents, seasons 1 to 2, sorted by Current Special Teams rating. Actually, this will likely yield us some useful players anyway - a guy with serious ST skill will always be os at least some use, so why not start building cohesion here and now while we have open tryouts?

Anyway... check out the sorted list. FB Russell Small doesn't have the run blocking I look for in a FB, but he's at least a notch or two above Donaldson's 74 (including the 2nd yr guys is the way to anchor our information here), and that's pretty solid. but that's not really all that exciting -- his blue bar already suggested big potential in ST, so this would have been a target guy for that purpose anyway.

Now, look a few guys further down that sort. What about rookie TE Les Meek? He's sorted here as having a current ST between 63 and 74... but his blue bar is only something like 30-63. Maybe not a shock, but it's at least possible that this guy's "true" ST bar is something like 60/70 right now, and that blue bar is a phony underrating of his actual skill/potential.

This isn't the most jarring example I have ever seen, but it's a useful tool to sort through rookies. When I see a guy who has an *actual* rating that's demonstrably better than his supposed *future* (blue/orange) rating, I figure that guy might be hiding something good, and maybe he's worth a look.

On this team, I reckon both Small and Meek are worth a contract offer.

Curious case in OLB Ray Israelson. He has three bars of note, and they are all pretty good ones if we were to slot him at the weak side of a 3-4 front: PR Tech (68-100), PS Strength (48-78), and Punishing Hitter (63-98).

However, the scout doesn't even pick him up when sorting by current PR Tech, so he's no better than a 9/XX there right now. And that 4.70 dash doesn't really back up the pass rushing skill, either. On a normal team, probably not worth a real look... on this team, probably not mush downside, but I don't think this is a guy worth building our formation around. The 3-4 front might still make more sense, given the likely paucity of the talent we'll see at DL.

A few candidates for chemistry leaders -- one way this team has to get an edge is through chemistry, so landing some high-personality position leaders (with secure leadership ratings) would make sense here. These are the oldest guys we'll ever see on the team, so might as well make it count.

It wouldn't be a ridiculous move to decide to pick up G McClain, WR Lee, and TE Manning as offensive position leaders (we'd have to position switch someone to RB/FB). That way we'd have all three group leader in sync, enabling two things:

1) it's just easier to remember to look for the 9-10 and 12-1 guys, and to avoid the (whoever) guys at all offensive positions

2) we can grab multi-affinity guys at QB who can triple up with that group

FB Small seems to have better current ratings in several areas than his blues would suggest...

Intriguing concept to play with though I'd probably be horrible at it, especially since I haven't moved to latest 6.3b version :)

I look forward to reading and following.

And, I know that it is only cosmetic, but I still like to wonder about the backstory of the mildly talented Polish genius from El Paso who ended up playing for N.C. State. Only in America.

ping Izulde

Probably the obvious cases here, but SLB Todd Linquist looks like an interesting pass rush technique prospect and RCB Keith Buford has interesting man-to-man skills. LCB T.J. Edwards has some interesting skills (interceptions, special teams). Maybe RB Jessie Ogu as a 3rd down RB? WR Jose Rivero has an interesting 40-time and agility combo.

With a quick look at the DB talent available (and knowing a bit about what to expect in any IMT career) I was thinking that maybe the way to go might be to make this a zone-first team, and to look at guys who have good position skill scores from the combine. Sorting rookie DBs by current interception skills yields a handful of guys who look to have decent ability there (always nice) and several safeties with position scores of 40+, supporting at least some combination of zone and interceptions.

Dealing with the limited talent pool that we are... do not forget the ability to switch positions. Many of my long-term IMT starters at CB were former safeties, DE were DT (or LB), and so forth. Some positions are really tough to fill in the customary fashion after the draft, don't forget to think outside the box.

Fair enough... I may have some time tonight or tomorrow morning, and will probably fill in the initial roster using mostly common sense. Anyone mentioned here will certainly get a roster spot. if I notice anything else interesting along the way, I will try to document my thinking as best I can.

I'm thinking that for year one - where the team will stink anyway - I won't worry too much about creating a serious gameplan. We'll just run a big vanilla and see what players might stand out as "build-around" types afterward.

A glance prior to training camp, after a few position switches.

Won't be advancing until at least this evening... left the game files (pre-camp) on a thumb drive at home.

One note -- on this team, even a semi-credible SILB would have a shot at Defensive Rookie of the Year with the potential for maybe 120 tackles... but I'm not sure we're going to have anyone worth anything at all at ILB. Rivers looked like the best run stopper in the URFA class, but that's not saying much -- maybe a Run D rating of about 22 or so, I think. Not a big tackler in the secondary either, so I'm guessing we won't see any one guy with eye-popping numbers.

Also, SLB J.J. Beyer look pretty good, but he is impeding the D7 chemistry, so unless he has a great camp, he's likely getting cut.

I really like following these things. I know when I'm looking at scrubs I sort by all the "true" physical ratings to find guys that might have something going on. Go through all the guys with high sense rush, big play receiving, blocking strength, pass rush strength, and punishing hitter. For upfront defenders, a pass rush strength and punishing hitter pairing is usually worth a look. For the DBs, a punishing hitter and another high bump or interception bar can be pretty interesting as well. And I definitely try to dig up an RB with a high breakaway and speed to the outside combo. Those guys have a tendency to creep as well.

Okay, finally had time to run a vanilla training camp with that batch of 57 players. Here's the back end:


A +5 for Wisniewski is a really good sign. I don't have access to any of the change-tracking utilities at the moment, so I will piece together what I need - but the raw materials are above, at least.

I see a nice jump for SLB Israelson right off the bat (15/29 to 18/35).

A few quick notes just looking at the bars of these guys before starting with anything...

Wisniewski is clearly the guy to play at QB, but his bars tell us precious little about what style of offense he can run. He has 9 formations, with no real slant among them. Next year, expanding that may be a priority.

At RB, Latham looks passable, rest are usable but nobody is special

FB Small will likely be a long term asset, but not a serious run blocker

TE Mitting looks like the starter there, but a void in RR means he's just beef, no gravy

WR is a mixed bag, no surprise... no strong bias between short-yardage (GD) guys and downfield (BPR) guys, really... some of each to a degree

G McClain had the best dash combine of any OL, and looks like he may be a long term asset for us... some run blocking potential there, and his 35 held

LT Alex Beyer has the look of a high BStr guy whose other ratings may creep over time... even after a -2 camp

I fouled up defensive front more than I had realized, and have to cut two guys just to get things close to realigned.

Looks like SLB Israalson posted a +6 camp and has some real potential -- he was the punishing hitter + pass rush strength profile guy who seems to have panned out well... not much potential as a run stopper, though

DB group is a mishmash of bars, no real theme there either... several guys with solid looking Int bar, at least

Okay, I loaded up a gameplan titled "Balanced" (I'm assuming this was from the library published some while ago) and a vanilla 3-4 defense, and I ran season one. I have played enough IMT careers to know what to expect here... if this is news to you, you may want to sit down before continuing...

Since the summary doesn't include this stuff...

While I have the draft app up, here are some notes to myself and anyone reading:

Dash: RB Stan Dillon 4.48, WR Gus Owens 4.47 has some bars, QB Carlos Schmigdall 4.53, C Everett Coffey 5.07, T Ethan Covington 5.02 big bar, LT Butch Penn 5.02, DE Joey Owens bar, ILB Damon Behrendt, MLB Jason Greenwood, OLB Carl Mustian 4.58, CB Edward Brodie 4.46

Sole Test: QB Harry Gosselin 40, S Antonio Lynch 39 3 blue combines, RT Alex Nixon

Strength: G Horace Andrews 37 (three reds!), RG Brad Lowery

Agility: CB Xavier Marx 6.92!,

BJump: DE Xavier Sebek, RB Oliver Bromley, WR Willie Crawford

PSpec: CB Leon Ethridge 52, TE Peter Fredrickson

Here's the latest incremental file, to bring you up to date -- into late free agency in 2011. (You need both this file and the one from the first post in this thread)

2011 files

At this point, there's a range of things to be done.

-Need to decide who among our young returning players is worth a new contract.

-Need to decide what to do with team chemistry, especially at the D7 where I inadvertently mucked things up significantly (making our SILB position a fairly tough decision).

-Need to scour for new players to add and bring along to camp

-Need to think about a gameplan to use that may fit this team better than the vanillas from year one... I'm wide open on both sides of the ball.

Okay, then. Basically, here's my thinking going forward:

-If this team is ever going to be winning, it will be because we have some combination of true quality breakout players, sufficient solid enough role players around them, and then a whole lot of cohesion and chemistry. Basically, if we can land 2-4 impact players a year (impact meaning "guys who might actually get playing time on a real roster") and then otherwise build for chemistry... that's on the path toward a winning season in perhaps 8-10 years from now.

So, in order to have cohesion and chemistry high through that period, I need to lock up a number of players -- pretty much regardless of their skill level -- pretty soon.

That is, I figure, the real path to a winning team here. I'm sifting through the initial roster now, handing out new contracts and probably finding 20 guys who will still be on this roster in 2020.

What do you do with your draft picks, QS?

Arizona gets all of them. It's usually semi-interesting to see what a franchise does by having a top pick (often 1.1) and a double draft just handed to them every season. Usually they end up in big cap trouble before they really get good. I'll try to keep track in the thread.

RB Jeremy Swift (bench press 25), sounds like that power inside (>64) is for real, the third down running (>62) could be lower than advertised, but that combo can be interesting.

RB Gus Gellings (10/15, punt returner, semi-decent receiving skills) might be worth a shot at WR, but the punt returning (>59) alone makes him interesting.

DT Corey Chapman has okay speed (5.00 is decent for a DT) and power (31 bench reps), which seems to be in-line with the advertised blue. He'll be a big liability on running plays (no run defense, so-so play diagnosis). Not sure he can be moved to DE, though.

A 52 position drill for a CB? That's pretty huge. Some of the return skills are bogus (at least the kick returning), but the solecismic score, 40-time and position drill are good enough. And Ethridge is even an affinity match. Must get player.

You probably didn't miss S Kim Alexander and his 48 position drill score.

TE Louie Cooper also interests me as a player with long snapping skills and additionally some run blocking, getting downfield and big-play bars, with some combine scores that support his case a bit (4.73 dash, 7.51 agility, 9'7" broad jump).

And then there's combine skipping SLB Shannon Wynn, with an 80+ special teams bar, 70ish punishing hitter.

Thanks... everyone on that list will get an invite to camp, for certain.

Pre-camp ratings:

Post-camp:

Buffalo Bills Player Report

(IMTBUF2011c - IMTBUF2011d)

Name	Pos	Team	IMTBUF2011c Current	IMTBUF2011c Future	IMTBUF2011d Current	IMTBUF2011d Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Duran, Tommie	QB	Buffalo	11	24	13 (2)	26 (2)	2	2
Stephenson, C.J.	QB	Buffalo	11	41	13 (2)	41 (0)	2	0
Wisniewski, Tracy	QB	Buffalo	8	21	10 (2)	21 (0)	2	0
Dillon, Stan	RB	Buffalo	25	34	27 (2)	34 (0)	2	0
Harmon, Herman	RB	Buffalo	30	45	32 (2)	44 (-1)	2	-1
Latham, Artie	RB	Buffalo	34	39	35 (1)	35 (-4)	1	-4
Ogu, Jessie	RB	Buffalo	25	32	27 (2)	32 (0)	2	0
Swift, Jeremy	RB	Buffalo	27	52	28 (1)	45 (-7)	1	-7
Brigham, Lorenzo	FB	Buffalo	25	45	29 (4)	45 (0)	4	0
Manning, Vernon	FB	Buffalo	10	20	11 (1)	21 (1)	1	1
Small, Russell	FB	Buffalo	33	35	36 (3)	36 (1)	3	1
Woodson, Charles	FB	Buffalo	22	54	24 (2)	47 (-7)	2	-7
Baillargeon, Riddick	TE	Buffalo	17	50	19 (2)	41 (-9)	2	-9
Cooper, Louie	TE	Buffalo	17	32	19 (2)	32 (0)	2	0
Fredrickson, Peter	TE	Buffalo	20	46	25 (5)	50 (4)	5	4
Lowery, Riddick	TE	Buffalo	22	55	24 (2)	47 (-8)	2	-8
Mitting, Isaac	TE	Buffalo	24	37	26 (2)	36 (-1)	2	-1
Rackley, D.J.	TE	Buffalo	25	52	29 (4)	47 (-5)	4	-5
Gellings, Gus	FL	Buffalo	14	31	16 (2)	29 (-2)	2	-2
McQuilken, Winfred	FL	Buffalo	28	30	29 (1)	29 (-1)	1	-1
Owens, Gus	FL	Buffalo	19	43	21 (2)	40 (-3)	2	-3
Spencer, O.J.	FL	Buffalo	23	43	26 (3)	44 (1)	3	1
Giles, Carlos	SE	Buffalo	21	39	23 (2)	39 (0)	2	0
Lee, Edward	SE	Buffalo	12	26	15 (3)	27 (1)	3	1
Pulido, Mel	SE	Buffalo	18	26	21 (3)	28 (2)	3	2
Greene, Ed	C	Buffalo	27	43	30 (3)	43 (0)	3	0
McKenzie, Shannon	C	Buffalo	13	53	17 (4)	53 (0)	4	0
McLain, Rod	LG	Buffalo	23	35	27 (4)	35 (0)	4	0
Musum, Ryan	LG	Buffalo	28	31	30 (2)	31 (0)	2	0
Lowery, Brad	RG	Buffalo	20	46	22 (2)	41 (-5)	2	-5
Beyer, Alex	LT	Buffalo	22	24	22 (0)	24 (0)	0	0
Nygaard, Gino	LT	Buffalo	20	30	21 (1)	30 (0)	1	0
Covington, Ethan	RT	Buffalo	4	40	6 (2)	40 (0)	2	0
Federspiel, Jimmie	K	Buffalo	38	56	39 (1)	57 (1)	1	1
Springer, Curtis	P	Buffalo	29	64	30 (1)	55 (-9)	1	-9
Barlow, Walt	LDE	Buffalo	20	40	22 (2)	37 (-3)	2	-3
Chapman, Corey	LDE	Buffalo	21	34	22 (1)	31 (-3)	1	-3
Ballard, Kendall	LDT	Buffalo	22	41	26 (4)	41 (0)	4	0
Grebene, Clarence	NT	Buffalo	21	27	22 (1)	29 (2)	1	2
Godfrey, Justin	RDE	Buffalo	19	34	23 (4)	34 (0)	4	0
Sanaee, Bubba	RDE	Buffalo	25	34	27 (2)	34 (0)	2	0
Israelson, Ray	SLB	Buffalo	25	38	28 (3)	38 (0)	3	0
Salerno, Quentin	SLB	Buffalo	15	39	17 (2)	34 (-5)	2	-5
Wynn, Shannon	SLB	Buffalo	19	41	21 (2)	37 (-4)	2	-4
Brownlee, Ben	SILB	Buffalo	22	35	25 (3)	36 (1)	3	1
Whitfield, Willie	SILB	Buffalo	19	29	22 (3)	30 (1)	3	1
Borders, Timothy	WILB	Buffalo	12	53	14 (2)	48 (-5)	2	-5
Hanaki, Bert	WILB	Buffalo	27	37	31 (4)	38 (1)	4	1
Linquist, Todd	WLB	Buffalo	21	35	24 (3)	35 (0)	3	0
Edwards, T.J.	LCB	Buffalo	15	34	17 (2)	34 (0)	2	0
Ford, Lincoln	LCB	Buffalo	24	46	27 (3)	46 (0)	3	0
Kawaguchi, Gary	LCB	Buffalo	15	22	16 (1)	22 (0)	1	0
Marx, Xavier	LCB	Buffalo	21	43	24 (3)	40 (-3)	3	-3
Blanchard, Allen	RCB	Buffalo	16	24	18 (2)	24 (0)	2	0
Buford, Keith	RCB	Buffalo	30	40	31 (1)	31 (-9)	1	-9
Dillon, Walt	RCB	Buffalo	7	23	8 (1)	22 (-1)	1	-1
Ethridge, Leon	RCB	Buffalo	19	58	21 (2)	47 (-11)	2	-11
Alexander, Kim	SS	Buffalo	19	52	21 (2)	46 (-6)	2	-6
Boyd, Kevin	SS	Buffalo	28	32	30 (2)	30 (-2)	2	-2
Robinson, Otis	SS	Buffalo	14	27	17 (3)	28 (1)	3	1
Wooden, Kenyon	SS	Buffalo	12	38	15 (3)	35 (-3)	3	-3
Finley, Julio	FS	Buffalo	11	30	13 (2)	26 (-4)	2	-4
Lynch, Antonio	FS	Buffalo	12	36	15 (3)	38 (2)	3	2
Rutter, Quentin	FS	Buffalo	26	45	31 (5)	46 (1)	5	1

So, I reckon everyone who bumped in camp gets a spot going forward... right? QB might be interesting now... I like the look of Duran a bit.

I'm curious what happens to Wisniewski. Unfortunately, he's got to play for us to see how he pans out in the end and it might be a whole lotta playing time for nothing...tough call.

Scratching my head here, all but one of my suggestions took huge hits. Especially CB Ethredge's hit is very disappointing and unexpected; -11, ouch...

MIJB, my general experience is that while there will be guys with good-looking bars who slide through the whole draft, and there will be guys with some great combines who slide through...it's very rare to find guys with both who do. My usual expectation here is to find *either* low bar creepers (guys like Wisnieswki) or good-bar guys who slide but remain worthwhile.

A guy like Ethridge, even after a -11 camp,might still be worth keeping around, at least for now. Here's a look at him post-camp:



With those reds in zone, int, and ST... I see a guy who could be very solid as a nickel back for the long haul, even.

At the start of the 2011 season, I decide to release RB Latham, for several reasons. My plan now is to go with Harmon as the main duty guy (63 power, 89 elus, decent receiving skills) and Swift (99 power, 68 3rd down) as the backup and short yardage guy. With two power-first backs, and better inside run blockers than our tackles, I will plan to push more runs between the tackles than I usually would.

In time, maybe this team becomes one Al Davis would like.

After a 1-5 start, Wisniewski has a 47 rating, and I think it's time to calm things down on offense, and just try to play it safer. I rein in the passing game, and we will try to move the chains on offense without doing much aggressively.

In four games with a play-it-safe approach, we post a total of 20 points (3-0-14-3) and I decide it's time to try something new.

So, for the final six games, i tweak some key settings -- and we will try to pass 75% of the time on 1st and 10, and then run 80% of the time on second and long. We'll try to benefit from doing the unexpected.

Basically, nothing to see here in terms of the team accomplishing anything. Pretty much as expected.

Tough to say what the stats tell us about DT Grebene, but he had a +2 rookie camp, a pretty good statistical season (9.2 T%, 4.7 PR%) and now scouts at 25/29.

I will advance to the next post-draft stage, and post a new file shortly.

Notes from the post-draft screen:

QB Winston Cooley - 86 PSpec and 4.37 dash!!! but three greens
C Raymond Booth - 5.04 dash and max run blocking bar
WR Bucky Pexna - 6.96 agil
S Richie Alexander - 47 Sole, 45 PSpec

Interesting stuff, as usual. I've always found this concept interesting and naturally, I'm not nearly good enough at FOF to attempt it, but I'm thinking a baseball variation could be in the offing.

Here's a new file... contents to be added to those from the previous ones.

http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/imtbuf_2012.zip

I hear ya. It was just a bit moaning about me giving some so-so advice.

I'll grab the new file and make another set of well educated guesses on guys who seem to be semi-decent but will still likely lose potential after camp. ;)

Some somewhat-obvious suggestions:
RB Michael Barker, 50+ for hole recognition and speed to outside in experience.
WR James Gillespie, returnman (and basically nothing but).
K Scottie Kirchhof, could be a top-notch kickoff specialist, if you're into using a roster spot for that. :D
DE Leo Gerken, run defense potential, punishing hitter.
DT Edgar Hoffman and Mark Terrell, 40-time under 5.00.
DT R.J. Tuholski, 22/29 and only 48% developed, decent strength and agility.
WILB Andy Fitzgerald, decent 40-yd dash.
MLB Jamie Fletcher and SLB Glen Clausen, strange set of bars, very developed for a rookie.
WLB Scott Rust, run defense, zone defense, speicla teams.
RCB Juan Sawyer, punt returning, interceptions, broad jump score.
LT Earl Linquist and LG Colin Huntley, pass blockers with good agility scores.
SS Roy Harrison, 43 position drill.
LDE Derek Alcott.

Okay, took a huge slate of stiffs into training camp this year. I think at the end of season three, we can start filling in the roster puzzle a bit -- basically reaching some conclusions on what guys on the roster then are long term keepers, and what slots we feel we have more or less in hand.

One interesting twist... QB Tommie Duran, our #2 last year who got around 100 passes in reserve, is already "angry" and unwilling to sign for a year two. I plan to re-sign him after camp if possible, staying at least broadly within my own rules... but will try to avoid such a situation again. In my history, guys who inexplicably are pissed off about playing time are often better than their visible ratings suggest. Interesting tidbit, we'll see if he gets grabbed in free agency before we can reclaim him.