38 Players in One Draft - The Anxiety Story
Hello folks and welcome to the exciting One and Done challenge, and this is my entry. Yay.
Over the next while I will be posting my strategy going into the challenge and then looking at trades before the actual draft begins and I have pages of the draft. So, without further ado, let's begin
Going into the off-season, I decided to focus on offense. While I wanted to emphasize the passing game, I truly wanted a balanced attack. Going in, I wanted the Pentagon of Offense - OTx2, WRx2, QB, which gives you maximum passing ability. Toss in a top RB, and a few late Gs or Cs, FBs and TEs, like there often are, and I would have an offense that could score at will. At least, in theory...
With a lot of early picks invested in offense, and some later defensive picks, I;d like to come away with fantastic special teams players, which te comptuer can sometimes wait on. I'd love to draft the top P, top K, and then some great returners and gunners.
Let's begin with some trades:
1st /1 to Atl for 1st/4, 1st next year, and 4th, 5th and 6th.
I shop the Falcons picks. I have to go down to the Jets at 1/16 before they agree to accept it. As expected.
Traded Atl’s #1 next year for NJY 1/16 and I get their 7th this year too.
That means I traded the #1 pick for the #4, #16, and a 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th this year. I’m happy with that.
I feel like I can drop down again in the first and still implement my strategy. The problem with trading with the 8th overall Giants, is that their later round picks deviate greatly all the way to the 13th pick in that round, and that’s not good for me. The Colts at 7 are consistent throughout the draft. What can I get if I trade to their spot?
I am unable to get their first and second. I go lower. I can try to trade for their 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. Let’s try that. Nope, that doesn’t work either. Hold on, let me make another offer.
I try 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 to no dice. I drop the 7 and it works. That is accepted. I acquire the 1/7 pick, and their 3rd, 5th and 6th selections.
I have now turned the top overall selection into 1/7, 1/16, 3, 4, two 5s, two 6s, and a 7. All near the top of those rounds. Alright, I’m comfortable sitting at 7.
Time to trade my future picks in. I need as many 2s and 3s as I can get, while also getting a few more 1s. I want at least one more first round selection.
I want a pick somewhere around 20, so I dial up the Patriots. I offer a future #1 for their 1 and 2. No dice. How far back can I fall and make this offer work? Just in case I get a hit soon, I sneak in a couple of low round picks to make thing seven.
I slide down to 26 at Minnesota and no dice. I have no desire to keep dropping. I jump back up to a higher team and try to get some later picks. I can’t get a 2, obviously, but what about something else?
I can’t even get a 1 and 3 out of Chicago for a future 1 with them at 1/18.
I offer a future one to the Eagles for a 1, 3, 6, and 7, and they accept.
I trade a future two to the Saints for their second and 7th round picks this year.
I trade with the Eagles again, my other future 2bd rounder for their 2nd round this year and their 5th rounder.
Note This Section Did Not Happen
This section is for posterity:
I’m considering trading my last future number one for a bevy of picks instead of another mid to late first round selection. On the other hand, a fourth first round pick would be handy. Let me see how many number twos I can get.
I offer my future first to Oakland for their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th, but no dice. Hmm. Let’s try dropping to the three spot.
I finally get an offer for the 49ers to work, a 6th, 7th 2nd this year, and a future 2nd for my future first. I rarely decline an offer that the computer says yes to, because you can only do that so many times. However, I know I can trade this pick for a mid round first, 17th overall, and I just feel like I have more value with a 1/17 than I would with a 2/3, 6/3, 7/3 and the 2/16 or so that I can trade the future pick for. I know that it runs one player into four, but frankly, more late picks aren’t exactly thrilling me right now. Can’t I get more high picks?
I reject the trade, but again, I hate to burn bridges. Let me try a different angle.
I try a trade for the 49ers second round selection, plus their 3rd round this year and the next two years. One two and three threes. Will this work? Nope. I drop a future three for a four and a five, and still no dice. I can’t even get a trade for 2, 3, 3, 6, 7. I can’t trade a 2 for two threes apparently.
I’m stuck. I have no desire to go back to my original trade. What if I changed dancing partners and dropped again?
I make a few offers to Pittsburgh. I finally make a deal.
I trade my last future first to Pittsburgh for their 2nd, 3rd and 7th this year, and their two future 3rds.
Some of my low round future picks are traded for low round picks of the same caliber this year. I am able to nab Denver and Chicago’s 6th and 7th round selections for my future 6s and 7s.
This Section Also Didn't Happen
Today was the day I learned that not all future picks are treated the same by the AI. I offered the Saints a future Steeler 3rd for their 3rd/17 this year, and they said no. As a lark, I offered them my future and they agreed. Funny. Maybe I should have asked for another seventh. Ah well. I didn’t expect them to say yes, but I felt bound to the offer.
The Jets at 3/20 don’t even want a straight up trade for the Steelers pick. How far do I have to fall back to trade these things off? Maybe that trade wasn’t as good as I thought it would be.
Even Tampa says no at 22. The Vikings at 24 decline a straight trade. St. Louis at 26 says no. This is a team that is at number 5/6 in the bracket, it has a lousy season last year, and no one wants their draft picks. Ugh. I feel like starting over. How far back are these things worth?
Kansas City at 28 says no thanks. Even Seattle at 32 says no a 3rd round 32 overall for a future third round is a guaranteed deal! So these picks are going to be made into multiple mid round picks. Yuk.
Oakland at 4/1 doesn’t want the Steelers future third, and that’s crazy. Let me try an experiment. Okay, Pittsburgh at 4/5 was willing to swap for my 3rd overall. It seems like the AI treats a second hand future selection differently that it does a future one I own. I can trade my futures for a 16 or 17 pick in the beginning of the middle of that round.
I call an audible and restart the dynasty. This was an element to the game I did not know. I could have deleted the info, but I wanted to be intellectually honest.
I am back to the Pittsburgh trade after redoing the previous trades from start. I decide to shop this future first elsewhere. I now know that my strategy of acquiring multiple picks of the same round in the future and then trading those picks in for numerous picks in that round will not work. I either trade my future first for a lot of picks, but nothing special, or I get a first round out of it. Hmm, maybe I can get both if I drop down a bit.
Nothing really happy comes my way.
I go back to my idea of trading with Oakland I offer my pick again for their 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and again, no dice. Then I do my Abedraft. I make the smallest change and see if that works. In this case, I drop a 6 for a 7. Then, if that doesn’t work, I drop the 7. Then I drop a 5 for a 6. Then for a 7. Etc. I offer the next closest thing in order to negotiate for the best deal.
Oakland accepts the next offer. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7. All this time, I was this close to a deal. Here’s the 411: With these picks, I have the top two selections I n every round but the first and sixth. I get two picks in between the picks I would get with a 1st and 3rd rounder of a later first round pick.
I gain the following picks, without regard for round:
Or I could trade with a team like Cincinnati and get their:
Which list would you rather have? Which list gives you the best group of five players?
That’s not really a question, is it?
We trade our remaining future first to Oakland for their 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7.
I still trade my future 6s and 7s to Chicago and Denver for theirs this year.
I trade a future second for Chicago’s. I trade the other for the Saints 2nd and 7th. I also trade my future 3rd and 4th to the Saints for their current 3rd and 4th.
I exchange a future 3, 4, and 5 to the Patriots for their 3, 4, 5 and 7 this year
I trade my final future pick, a fifth, to the Jets for their 5th
I currently have:
For a total of 38 draft picks. That seems doable to me.
Let’s head to the draft.
I scout out a bunch of players. I am going to emphasize offense in my draft, so I emphasize it in my scouting. I want the best offensive players I can get, and then I’ll take defense later. For now, I want to focus on offense. I need ot get a QB, a RB, a WR with my top picks, and then hope for a good second WR, O-Line to fall to me in the next few picks, before sliding into defense for a lot of picks until I can snag the good offensive players late, classic underdrafted positions like TE, C and FB I can take starters for later. I want to come out with a K and P, but I don’t feel that I have to.
I interview the top 30 rated offensive players according to my scout, which included 13 QBs.
The top rated FB is from WVU, so I want him .
I decide to spend all of my interviews on offense. Let’s now go to the draft.
My scouts like QB Peter Briggs and Bert Mayhem. Briggs is also our top match, so we hope to nab him at 7.
We’d lose OT Bryan Clemons, but he’d have to seriously fall to be available at 7. If he is there, I may take him, as the rock of my team, the Tony Boselli I build my franchise around.
In the draft, the following players are taken:
Atlanta – QB Roy Harrison
Oakland – QB Myron Mason
SF – QB Malcom Sweeney. Wow, I totally didn’t see trip QBs going. Who got Cade McKnown and who got Donovon McNabb?s
Indy – OLB Kelvin Bushon
Buffalo trades to Oakland
Oakland – MLB Darren Kieta
Pittsburgh – OT Bryan Clemons - There goes my Boselli.
What do I do?
With three players on the board I can take, my choices are essentially QB Briggs, WR Harris Powell or RB Bryan McMillan. With that many choices it’s easy. Trade back.
I drop to 1/9 and take Washington’s 1/9. 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th.
Washington – CB Bernard Delgado
Giants – S Kendall Anderson
Well, I screwed up. In hindsight, its obvious that I should have traded farther back than 9 and gotten higher round picks for my time. Maybe I could have gotten a 3rd rounder if I had dropped back a few more places. I still have the same three players on the board as before, only now, I have a decision to make. Dropping back gets less and less lucrative every time you do it. Time to swallow my pride and make a choice.
However, all three of the players I covet are on the board. Even if one falls to me at 16, the other is not at 21. I wonder.
The run on QBs has stopped for now. Let’s go with that stud WR.
Pick 9 – WR Harris Powell of Nebraska
Let’s hope the right guy falls to me.
Miami – OLB Norbert Lyons
Detroit – QB Peter Briggs – I was hoping to get him at 16, but oh well.
Arizona – QB Chris Taylor
Tennessee – G Steve O’Field
Jacksonville – TE Wes Chevrier
Green Bay – ILB Shane Kolsrud
Pick 16 is up and I have another decision to make. I can take RB McMillan, and although I would love to, I feel that I have to make the QB decision now, I just can’t keep waiting
Again to recap, here is what I know about ye olde QBs.
QB Bert Mayhem has a high grade, and our scouts believe he is underrated, but looking at his bars is like looking at an undrafted free agent. Maybe I’d take a risk later in the draft, but at 16, I want to pick a more reliable QB prospect.
QB Kim McGregor looks to have nice bars, and he is rated the same at Bert, but my scouts believe he is very overrated, and that’s a problem.
QB Shaun Erickson is also rated at about the same level and listed as very overrated.
QB Jack Yoo is slightly below those in ratings, still has good looking bars and is very overrated as well.
Finally there is QB Dan McElroy who is hard to read, rated just below Jack Yoo and has an atrocious accuracy rating with a high volatility.
All but Dan did very well in intelligence. Jack and is a poor jumper while Bert is good, but who cares? All but Shaun are fast and Kim is strong.
I can veto Dan easily.
Let’s look at the bars.
Who has the highest accuracy? Shaun and Jack
Worst? Bert, by far
Who has the most well rounded pass bar? (the one with the best overall passes from screen to deep) Kim by far
Best 3rd Down? Shaun and Jack
The other two are nasty in 3rd down passing
Timing? Jack and Kim
Worst Timing? Shaun who is atrocious
Who is the best at sensing the rush, not a key skill, but nice? Only Bert is any good, and he’s still not that good. The other three can’t even draw a rush on a blackboard.
All but Bert are good at reading defenses, Kim is best though
When I look at the most well rounded QB, who is doing the worst? Bert. Bert’s out for now. Again, I might grab him later if I have a chance.
I can make a case for Kim the consistent passer no matter the distance so long as it isn’t a screen, or accurate and read defense Jack or solid all round Shaun. So who do I go for?
The guy from, West Virginia, Jack Yoo.
1). He’s from West Virginia, and that’s cool,
2). He’s probably Asian, and that’d be cool to have as your starting star QB.
This is a fun dynasty, so we might as well have some right now. I can’t pick between these three, but I need one, so I’ll snag the one I’ll have more fun with.
16 – QB Jack Yoo from Miami
The next picks are:
Denver – CB Bo Granados WR Sammie Newman
Chicago – OLB Leland Hamill
New Orleans – QB Kim McGregor
New England – QB Bert Mayehm
I hope NE didn’t get an egg with Bert. There are way too many QBs taken early in this draft.
Okay, time to make a pick. I’ve been eyeing RB Bryam McMillan all day. Do I take him here? Let’s look around and gauge the board.
The one thing keeping me away from Mr. 6.0 is that I already have two “Very Overrated” players taken. When I was grabbing Peter Briggs early, it was one thing, but now I have two overrated players. What to do? Grab a third?
RB Bryan McMillan very overrated at 6.0. Average breakaway speed, which I like a lot of. Extreme elusiveness, which I like as well. Great workout with good numbers in everything except broadjump.
RB Tyrus Torres is at 5.8 and rated hard to read. Torres was 0.1 faster than McMillan at the 40 yard dash, and has more speed to outside, but a bit less elusiveness, still a lot though.
RB OJ Winters is like Bert Mayehm, with ratings and scouts liking them, but bars of suckitude I no draft him.
RB Lonnie Staggs – Mr. 5.7 with an as scouted rating. Slower times and I don’t like his lack of strength in areas like breakaway and elusiveness. What you see is what you get with him, however.
Since these two – Torres and Staggs, are right behind McMillan, maybe I should think about going elsewhere. Should I trade down? You need to trade down a lot to make stuff here. For example, were I to trade down five picks, I’d only net 100 points on the trade calculator, enough for a late 4th rounder.
Other options to take here?
Our scouts think WR Sammie Newman is very underrated and he ran the 40 in sub 4.40 time. He can’t catch a cold in a rainstorm, but he has top notch big play ability, and if he is underrated, then he could end up a lot better. Volatility 82 though. Still, take a QB and two receivers in the first round, and you have a real offense, no matter what (I hope). We interviewed the top nine receivers and took the first. All of the rest after the next three were all very overrated. Taking one of the three ones that was rated well makes sense here. It also shores up our passing game in case our top choice busts.
Eh, why not move then. I want to get a low 2nd rounder so I grab my draft calculator and figure out a decent trade. Okay, I figured out this trade an the calculator, so hold on:
I give up to the Chiefs:
I get from the Chiefs:
I move down, and get to jump from mid third to bottom 2nd. Then I get an extra 4th for a seventh. Note this trade is in Cleveland ‘s favor by a mere 0.2 points.
By pick 28 I hope to have a clearer picture as to the RB/WR question.
Chiefs – WR Sammie Newman
Bengals – RB Bryan McMillan
St. Louis – QB Shaun Erickson
Tampa Bay – DT Marcus Danek
Houston – DT Tim Laing
Minnesota – WR Zach Ciscone
Cleveland – DT Mario Colson
Where do I go now? The last WR that my scouts really liked is Jerry Reeves. I have two picks after five more selections. RB Torres and Staggs are still there. Normally, I have a better chance of one RB falling with two on the board than of one WR falling, so I’d go WR. However, Torres fits my system better than Staggs who looks more like a traditional power back.
Pick 28 – RB Tyrus Torres from good ol’ Kentucky
The rest of the first round:
Carolina – RB Lonnie Staggs
San Diego – DT Harris Johnson
Baltimore – RB OJ Winters
Seattle – OLB Cornell Logan
Well I got lucky that WR Reeves fell. No way Torres made it through that RB selection I think, so I’m happy.
I have the next two picks. The WR pool is getting thin quickly. If I want another top WR I should nab one now. The G talent has a few players that aren’t really worth drafting here, but there isn’t much, so I am afraid that if I wait on OG too long, I get stuck with losers.
The top players on my board are OTs, but there is a lot of depth here on the draft board. I could compromise and take the top OG and OT, netting 40% of my starting o-Line right now. Still, I can’t justify wasting a top 2nd round pick on a guy who shouldn’t be picked here. It’s not frugal.
Pick 33 – WR Jerry Reeves from Boston College
With the obvious pick out of the way, where do I go from here?
I could take that OT. That would be using my talent well. I could also go defense here. DE, DT, S and CB all have legitimate choices but I want a good offense first, and using the 34th choice on those positions does not help that cause.
There are no obvious places to go on offense besides the deep OT pool. No player sticks out. TE, WR, C, G all have their best player way below this spot in talent level. RB, QB, WRx2 all have already been picked by me. There are two great FBs, but I don’t want to go there.
Sigh. I hate choosing defense this early, but it is obviously the best choice for me to do so, who is the best player on the board?
It’s basically between S, OLB and DT. I go for the guy who looks better based on his numbers and the fact that the S has a volatility of 94.
Pick 34 - SLB Raymond Turnbull of Oklahoma State
He’s the best player I have left that’s not at OT which is full of players. I’ll make a move for my OT if he is still around after a few picks.
The safety I was eyeing went the very next pick. The players that go are largely on defense.
FB Nicky Whalen from WVU went and that saddens me.
I make a trade to move up and nab my OT before he goes.
I make a dead even trade offer but no dice. It has to be at least a tiny bit in the Ai’s favor. I add my last 7th rounder to the deal:
I then happily take the man I wanted all along, because two OTs just went in the last few picks, and I want to ensure that I get my man:
Pick 40 – OT Darryl Dotson from Tulane
He’s really good, and probably has late first round quality, worth trading up for.
I am feeling that one f the few quality OGs is about to go prior to my pick, so I trade up three and give up my late 6th rounder to grab:
Pick 47 – OG Preston Blake of Oregon State
He’s one of the best OGs in the draft after the guy from the first round, and another OT went in the last two picks, and when I looked, two of the three teams left before me needed OG as a position of need. I felt I had to jump up and grab him.
With our Kansas City pick, I simply take BPA.
Pick 61 – OT Dennis Dotson from Illinois.
This finishes the most important OLine positions. On offense, I now have the entire pentagon of talent (Qb, two WRs, two OTs, make a pentagon). In my estimation, if you have a pentagon of talent, you have a good offense, and now I have spent five of my top seven picks on the pentagon, and my offense is fixed. I am now free to pick wherever fro here on out.
Oh, and selecting Dotson gives me two things over other possible OT talent – dual Dotsons at OT, which is cool, and he’s from WV!
I feel that the talent here is defensive and not offensive.
Pick 65 – RDE William Caldwell of Tennessee Tech
He’s the top DE on our board, and I like emphasizing the trenches.
The best players on the board are all defense, so I decide to get my money worth with this pick as well.
Pick 66 – CB Robbie Ramon, from WVU!
I take him over competition because he is from my alma mater. He’s also good on special teams.
I’m up again after just a few picks. I still have several ways I can go with my draft. I feel like I could take another defensive player to keep up, since my offense is frankly doing well. However, why pass a chance to get the best center in the draft, despite the poor quality of the position’s players?
Pick 71 – C Orlando Patchet from UNLV
I have two picks in a row, so let’s get some talent.
Pick 81 – G Vinny Malone from Syracuse.
My scouts loved this guy in the interview, said he was a great deal, and he matches the place where I am drafting, so I grabbed him. As of right now, we have all of our offensive starters except for FB, TE.
I waited too long and the last good FB was taken, and now I have crap to choose from. No sense choosing a FB now, I’ll just wait for a while.
Ah well. I screwed up, and no sense mucking about, we just move on.
I have two receivers, two tackles and two guards, nothing keeping me from going two with something else:
Pick 82 – CB Chris Augustson
Of the five corners I was reviewing, he can’t pick his own nose, let alone the ball, but he appears to have the best coverage skills, plus good run defense too. Having good passing defense is key to a good passing game, because it can prevent opponents from running up the score, instead running it with their back, which is the secret reason that a run defense corner is good for my team. That makes Chris an ideal corner, despite his lack of intercepticons. He’s also good on special teams.
At the beginning of the fourth, its time to patch up some holes
Pick 97 – DT Floyd Hicks from Miami, Florida
I need more defensive players and he seemed to have some skills that I like, such as run stopping.
Pick 98 – TE Reuben Rasmussen from Notre dame
Sure, there are better DTs, DEs, CBs, Ss, OTs, Ks, Ps all available, but he is the best lesft at a weak area. I need to shore these up before too long, and the fourth round is my last real chance to get starters with any quality.
I missed out on one of the last good OLBs of any value left, and that’s sad. It does make my next choice easier, however.
Pick 108 – ILB Eric Haslett of Arkansas
Again, I needed players, and he was the best left at the position. I then let San Francisco pick third before taking the fourth pick of the fourth round. There are a lot of ways to go here. Take the top S. The top punter is available still. I could nab a backup RB or QB. I could take another defensive position I still need a starter at. However, you don’t want to go too long without a good MLB, it’s an important position.
I trade up a few spaces and give my last 7th rounder to Green Bay for the privelage. I am targeting by far the top safety on the board after the previous top safety as taken the pick after mine at 109. Green Bay only has two ont eh roster, so I jump now, for a seventh so late that it might as well be a UFA.
Pick 110 - S Lee Kinney of Washington
He fits my system very well and I need good pass defense. He was the last real good player here.
My positions of need: DT, DE, OLB, S, FB, P, K
Pick 113 – P Tracey Gomez of San Diego State
The first punter just went, and I suspect a run is about to start. Better to lead than follow.
I have Kansas City’s pick to finish out the round. I fill another hole.
Pick 125 – DT Cedric Garrard of Boston College
He’s simply the best left at his position. Tick off another position of need.
I could take a WLB here, the top kicker, a S, a DE, or go with a backup. What to do?
Pick 129 – QB Dan McElroy of Rutgers
This is my safety pick in case Jack Yoo doesn’t pan out. He is the highest rated QB on our board and our scouts found him hard to read. He has the accuracy of an Abe, so he isn’t a Jack Yoo type QB, but he does have well rounded passing stats, and he;s a fifth round pick, so you can’t be as choosy.
Pick 130 – S Andy Hammond of North Carolina
I discussed taking this position earlier. Now its time. He’s poor at man-to-man but at FS I expect him to zone a lot, he’s also real good at stopping the run and a great special teams player.
After waiting for a pick, we are up again.
Pick 132 – DE Peter Hill from William and Mary
I wanted to shore up one of my last holes before I move to more backups. This pick should surprise no one.
With just FB, WLB and K left open, is it time to grab one?
Two more picks pass
Alright, time to make a decision. Backups and role players, or patch the holes?
Pick 135 – WLB Jonathan Krueger of Lehigh
I’m surprised he is still available, and its time to grab him before another surprised team takes him.
Pick 139 – WR Wendell Frederickson from North Carolina
I need another receiver and he seems serviceable. In case I want to go three wide at at times
Pick 144 – OLB William Bernard from Ferris State
Since I don’t have good backers, I figure I should get one of the better backups for them.
Pick 146 – CB Emmitt Spencer of Pittsburgh
I needed a nickelback and he was the top corner on the board.
Pick 162 – K Fernando Sigman of California
Someone has to take him. We wait a pick and then are up again.
I want to get one good backup for each area. Time to start picking those up.
Pick 164 – DE Lamont Harrison from Syracuse
He’s solid and since the starting DE taken last round was one of the latest selections I took for a starting position, let’s take a good backup just in case.
Pick 167 – OT Bart Ramirez from the Other Miami
He’s solid enough, and we interviewed him. He did come back as overrated, but of those around, he has an affinity with our team leader thus far, so I’m taking him.
Pick 170 – G Ellis Murphy from Louisiana State
He had really good bars, and may be a nice surprise.
Pick 176 – DT Billy Joe Jenkins of Iowa State
Again, I want serviceable backups at least in each position group, and I got a DE< but I was surprised at how good his bars looked, so I’m taking a shot.
Pick 179 – CB Jerry Copeland of Colorado State
I need a dimeback, and I had to dig into the CBs in order to find one that might work in my system, but I hope that I did. Even if he isn’t a good dimeback he’s a great special teams player
Despite trading away several of these picks to move up earlier, I still have six picks in this round
Pick 194 – RB Tyrone Kight of Michigan
Time to take a backup for Torres.
Pick 201 - WR Preston Segreaves of Arizona
I was REALLY hoping he’d fall to me. He was back in the pecking order, so I hoped I could hide him until late. He’s a great punt returner and may be a good fourth or even third option in spread offense packages, He does have a red flag, so watch out. Still, for what he offers, he looks like a seventh round steal and I’m very excited about him.
I have four picks in a row, Time to finish this draft.
Pick 208 – MLB Shane Bronson from Northwestern.
Pick 209 – OT Joe Sutter of Virginia
Pick 210 – S Walt Robinson of Illinois
Pick 211 – TE Johnnie Worthington from Virginia
All of these players contribute to special teams or are expected to develop into real backup.
Whew! There we are, one draft class of such enormity that it took hours and hours to pore through the stats and trade possibilities and bars of the candidates. I’m tired.
Enter Free Agency. Here is my current position breakdown
QB – 2
RB – 2
FB – 0
TE – 2
WR – 4
OT – 4
OG – 3
C – 1
K – 1
P – 1
DE – 3
DT – 3
MLB – 2
OLB – 3
CB – 4
S – 3
Now, with 19 million in cap room, I have every intention of taking as many undrafted free agents into camp as I can possibly cram onto my roster. That’ll take a while, so why don’t we come back when I’ve got them all
I drafted 38 players - not that bad actually. Free agents should fill the gaps quite nicely.
We got an A+ in our draft rating and everybody else got Cs.
I have made offers in the first pass to 59 undrafted free agents.
The “first pass” means that I take the top undrafted free agents, then look at each position and that the top 3-5 players then take a look at each of the special teams (KR, PR, LS, Holding) abilities and grab a few for each.
Now I’ll go back and try to find the diamonds in the rough.
These are the players with lower ratings but their bars just happen to be right, or they have a large volatility combined with intriguing scores. I make offers to an additional seven players here.
In fact, practically every player with a potential score of 40 or higher has an offer, no matter the position.
I’ve now made offers to 66 players, and in addition to my 38 draftees, that brings our class to 104 players.
They all sign with me.
I hop a few players to positions of need. I move Jerry Reeves to SE, for example. That way they get camp experience at their new position, but when I see the final numbers, I’ll move around even more.
Let’s go to camp
We sold 36,100 season tickets
This is a quick roster comparison pre-cut
Jack Yoo is 29/62, and looks alright, I suppose.
RB Torres is the third most developed player on the roster after our Punter and top selection. He’s also our backfield leader. 47/62
WR Harris Powell is a hoss in every way. Glad to have drafted him. 51/78. Every stat is at 70 or above in potential or actual except for returning, where he sucks. He does have a 100 in special teams play, so I’ll need to make a decision whether to play him there or not.
Jerry Reeves doesn’t look that great, but my scouts loved him. So I hope he’ll grow into a good player.
OT Darryl Dotson busted down ten. Prior to camp he has a 72 potential, he now has a 62.
Best potential in my position groups:
QB – Jack Yoo
RB/FB – RB Tyrus Torres
TE/WR – FL Harris Powell
OLine – C Orlando Patchet
K/P – P Tracy Gomez
DLine – DE William Caldwell
LB – OLB Raymond Turnbull
Sec – S Lee Kinney
CB Robbie Ramon busted around ten potential too, down to 42. My major disappointment was WLB Jonathan Krueger who busted down to a 32 from 50. That’s a problem.
Here is the pre-cut roster:
It will be interesting to see if anyone that i end up cutting made it on your rosters, and then broke out.
Alright, let’s go position by position:
Jack Yoo is the best player, but Dan is right behind. In fact, if you had simply skipped past the first round QB runs, and waited until the top of the fifth to take McElroy, you would have made out by getting other players in that slot. Imagine who I could have gotten in the 16 spot if I had waited until the 5th round for McElroy!
I could have gotten a 46/73 WLB and shored up my major weakness on defense, that’s what I could have done. BTW, the 49ers third overall selection and third QB in a row taken busted down to 7/27. Ouch.
The QB I wanted, Peter Briggs is at 21/50. The other QBs I was looking at are Kim McGregor at 13/42 and Shaun Erickson at 24/48. The top QB ain;t too bad at 59 potential. It appears that Jack Yoo was the best first round QB by potential at 62, but again, the top overall pick ain’t too far off. Yay WV!
Get this, from the last QB taken in round 1 until I took McElroy at the top of round 5, not a single QB was taken! That means, the draft went from pick 23 until pick 129 before another QB was taken. Again, had I known that, I would have just waited and snagged McElroy!
After I take McElroy, another QB isn’t taken until pick 28 of round five. It looks like I may have taken McElroy too early. I take a look at the last QBs taken. There was a seventh rounder who is almost all green but has a potential better than most other QBs drafted at 51, Benjamin Irvin. He would have made a good backup for a career.
I want to keep four QBs. Who?
McElroy and Yoo obviously. Who else?
With Jack Yoo, I have a kick holding of 77. Therefore, I don’t need a third string QB to be a good holder unless they are really good. Tom Kearney does have a holding of 96, so that would be possible.
Ellard: A good west coast QB. Strong stats in short passes, screen, solid but not spectacular accuracy. Adequate medium passing poor long and deep passing. Timing is adequate. Sort of like Chad Pennington. Only a 41 sense rush and doesn’t read defenses at all.
Holliday: Like a bad McElroy. Where McElroy has just a 30 in accuracy, Holliday has 15. Holliday is also great at the long and deep ball while acceptable at the medium game. He doesn’t even know there are shorter plays in the playbooks. Timing of 70 is pretty good, but his sense rush is woeful. He can read a defense about as well as Ellard, which is to say that he thinks he is playing Madden out there, and not actually supposed to figure out what is going on. Good deep ball and third down passing with no sense of rush, short passes and reading defense. That he is similar to MeElroy means our game scheme would be the same if for some reason Jack Yoo went down for the long term or permanently.
Kearney: From the football powerhouse of Livingstone. It’s rare that I have never heard of a college a person is from, since I work in the higher ed world. Good medium passes. Acceptable short and deep passes. Poor at the long and screen balls. It’s hard to game plan around little deep ball and yet have some deep balls tossed occasionally. Accuracy potential of 52, timing of 100 and he has my attention. Adequate third down. Another back poor at sensing the rush. Read defense can get to 56, which is the first one who actually knows the defense exists. Summation – knows medium ball, has good intangibles, poor at long ball and screens and sensing the rush.
Newton: This is like a David Carr type back. 0 sense pass rush. Poor medium passes but adequate at the other four areas. In fact, this is Mr. Adequate. He’s at about 50 or 60 potential in everything except medium passť and sense rush. With no major areas of strength, he at last has no major weakness, except for that glaring hole at medium passes. You simply cannot scheme well with reduced medium length passes. On the other hand, you don’t need to worry about him with all of the weaknesses that the other QBs have.
All of these are weak at sensing the rush, so Newton’s weakness there isn’t as glaring. Ellard is the best and he’s barely adequate there, and the rest are just poor.
No one has a good pass list. I could take good short, medium, poor long and deep, that I could plan around, as an example. Every QB has a pass hole:
Ellard: Long, Deep
Holliday: Short, Screen sorta
Kearney: Long, Screen
Of those, the one that is easiest to gameplan around is Ellard. However, only Newton has just one hole.
Accuracy, which is important to me. In this order from most to least: Newton, Ellard Kearney, Holliday. Newton and Ellard each have mid to high sixties. Hollidya just sucks here. Kearney has a 52 which doesn’t suck.
Intangibles: Sense rush, timing, 3rd down, read defense.. What weaknesses do they have:
Ellard: Read defense, sorta third down, sorta sense rush (Sorta is high 30’s, low 40s)
Holliday: Read defense, sense rush
Kearney: Sense rush
Newton: Sense rush
Ellard does not look good hear, neither does Holliday. However, who just nails a stat? (70+)
Holliday: 3rd down passing and timing, each at 70 potential
Kearney: 88/100 timing
So, although Holliday has problems he is also gifted in areas
Who do I take and who do I drop?
I don’t want my backup to screw up. Therefore, I care more about problems than gifts. That makes Newton a strong choice.
I can also cut Holliday for the same reason.
It’s easier to gameplan Ellard, but he is the weakest at the intangibles after Holliday is cut. Who do I go for?
I go for Ellard, because he does have that strength in passing skills to fall back upon.
Therefore, I cut Kearney and Holliday.
This is an easier position to do despite the large number of stats. Being a good receiving back is nice, but not vital. I have seven RBs and I want to cut to four. Torres is good enough to stay.
Unfortunately, the backup I drafted, Tyrone Kight is the worst of the lot, and has not special teams skills to fall back upon. Therefore, he is cut.
Here are the traits I care most about:
Speed to Outside
Who has the best skills in these areas?
Total number of potential points in these three areas combined:
Hoffman: 143 with a significant deviation of 13 and 100.
Fling: 157, with a deviation of 90 to 7.
Kelso: 165, with a deviation of 100 to 28
Fletcher: 144 with a deviation of 60 to 36.
Bush: 102 with a deviation of 54 to 4.
Well, that doesn’t look good for Leland Bush, the WVU alum. On the other hand, Kelso and Fletcher look good compared to the rest.
Alright, what about the inside game? Nobody has more than a 31 power inside running trait.
3rd down running is alright. It doesn’t make or break a back, but I’d like it. Fling is at 67. Fletcher at 48. Bush at 64. The other two are in the 30s. That looks good for Fling and Bush.
Who are the best overall receivers? Again, nice, but not necessary.
Leland Bush is the best receiver. His stats are all at 50 up to 74 and 72 for two of them. Kelso and Fling are next.
Special teams, kick and punt return?
Bush is at 49 and 53 in the return stats. No one else is close.
I won’t be looking at those players yet, but I want to go ahead and cut some players. Since Bush might make the grade based on special teams and receiving play (making him a solid choice for a shotgun 4wr set or something), I’m not going to cut him yet.
I am making Fletcher officially a backup. He makes the cut because he is the only one with any breakaway speed. I have to leave the rest because of the Leland Bush question. If I bring him on, my choices change based on his stats.
I have a great undrafted free agent in Marcel Maloney with a 54 potential. I cut the other FB.
I want to take four with me into the exhibition season. I have seven so I need to cut three.
Rasmussen is the starter and clearly the best TE on the roster. He has a long snapping of 94, so there is no need to keep a long snapper.
Two TEs, Matos and Reynolds, and good on special teams, and may stay on for that purpose.
I prefer my TEs to block and catch, not specialize in one or the other. I’ll take a TE with no deficiencies against a great blocker who can’t catch.
Matos – He’s a red flag. Good on special teams (77). Barely adequate as a blocker. 37, 58, and 33 on the blocking stats. Spotty as a receiver – 80 3rd down and 76 downfield and even a 54 avoid drops, but a 7 at adjusting to ball, and 13 at route running. 24 big play receiving.
Reynolds – Good on special teams (75). While he is proficient at blocking technique, he has no strength. Worse blocker than Matos, better receiver though. Perfectly serviceable receiver.
Farr – 61, 42, and 16 blocking stats. Better than Reynolds at blocking, and a strong run blocker. Like Matos, also streaky as a receiver with a 0 in Big Play, 4 courage, 14 third down catching, but good stats elsewhere. Good at catching, running routes, adjusting to the ball, and getting downfield. Not a bad receiver in non-clutch situations. Would be a good target early in the downs with little on the line.
George – Best blocker so far. 46, 66, 40. 0 Big play receiving, 15 avoid drops, and 16 getting downfield against 81 courage, and 60’s in the other three stats. Another streaky receiver, but at least he is a good blocker.
Jensen – 36, 20, 48 makes him an adequate blocker but barely. Yet another streaky receiver, with low stats in getting downfield, adjusting, and big plays. Nothing more than alright in the other passing stats.
Worthington – 66, 52, 37 makes him a solid blocker. Worst receiver of the lot.
Now, who to cut? Although I drafted him, Worthington has to go. I have other TEs who are good blockers, but streaky receivers. He is just a poor receiver. Might as well cut him.
Who is staying for sure? Reynolds. As the only good receiver, it’s nice to have one TE you can throw a ball to
Who else is staying? Farr. As a great run blocker, Farr can open holes for Torres. He also is the only streaky receiver that can actually have a passing plan built around him.
That leaves me with one hole. I have left Matos, George, and Jensen. I need to keep Matos for now, until I’ve done the special teams works. Therefore, I cut Jensen, because George is a better blocker and they are both streaky receivers.
Choosing these players is tough, so I skip receiver for now. I move to OLine, which is easier to do:
I have six Centers on my roster, I want to cut three.
Buckner is the only player on my roster with a conflict with one of my leaders. He goes.
He had a run blocking of 80, but we needed to drop the attitude. Only harmony here.
All of the rest of my Centers are all solid. I could start and backup any of them.
Allen Arriaga has no blocking strength, despite great technique. I cut him. I hate to drop the guy from West Virginia State, but he is the worst of the remaining four, so I cut, unfortunately, Andrew Michaud.
I have eight, and I need to cut to five.
Despite good blocking skills, I drop Luther Sutter for having no blocking strength. So is Albert Fisk. Lionel Hanks has a run blocking of 10., He goes too. Easy cuts here.
I have seven OTs, and I want to drop two. I’ve been dropping O Linemen with no strength but Joe Sutter has 55 and 77 as his blocking potentials. That’s really good even with no blocking strength.
He is simply the best technique OT I have left, and so I am loathe to cut him at this time.
With a 26 run blocking, Dusty Drayson is gone. I hate to release a guy from WV, but Ike McWillams has just a blocking strength of 15 without the good blocking stats that Joe Sutter had. Time to cut him.
I cut my free agent K.
I want to cut two.
DE Lamont Harrison, despite being a 6th round selection, is by far the worst DE on the team and is cut. Herman Cassidy is a nice run defense specialist, but doesn’t have enough of the other skills for my tastes. He is releases as well.
I want to cut two here as well. The cuts here are easy. Leon Medsker and Don Morrison are easy cuts.
Cut two here as well.
Edgar Gunn is released with too weak of a run D for my tastes. I release Kris Jagger, another guy from WV, because he was too inconsistent in stats, although better in some areas that the other options.
I have six, want too drop to four.
O’Neal is an easy cut at the SLB side.
I move MLB Shane Bronson to WLB. He will now be my starter there. His stats got a bit better as result of the move.
I happily cut the bust that is Jonathan Kreuger
I’ll stay at 7 overall backers for now.
I have 10 corners. A lot of these players will be assessed for viability as starters vs nickel and dime backs vs returners vs special teams aces. Any obvious cuts? I cut Butch Bower.
Alright, time to look at Safeties:
I have nine and I’m comfortable cutting four. Again, we have the possibility of returners and special tea aces, so I’ll only cut those obviously below par.
Only Mike Henry is obviously poorer than other options, so I cut him. Now, let’s go back to WR.
I have fourteen receivers and am happy to get rid of a few.
Harris Powell is the star of our team, so no touching him.
Donny Rumbaugh never ended up being any good so he’s cut.
RJ Poff wasn’t good enough, but he was closer than Rumbaugh.
He’s another lost West Virginian, and we say goodbye to Phil Dillon.
Marc Hardy is good but very streaky, and with a 0 avoid drops and big play, I have to cut him.
Time to look at special teams. Let’s begin with returners. These are the players on my team that have return-ability.
RB Torres – 62 KR
RB Leland Bush – 49, 53 in each.
FL Lawrence Ramsey – 55, 31
FL Julio Idzak – 68 PR
SE Jermaine Weber – 58 PR
SE Preston Segreaves – 68 PR
LCB Emmitt Spencer – 62 PR
LCB Jonathan Buchanon – 53 KR
RCB Frankie Wilkins – 56 KR
I immediately release CB Daniel Williams, A PR man not as good as multiple people I currently have on my roster. I need two KR men. Torres is one.
Ideally I have a good PR, a good KR, and a good player that has both as a backup.
Julio Idzak is an odd person, who I may have to leave on my team. Before I grabbed my free agents, I saw that TE Rasmussen was the team leader and several players didn’t like him. Now, Idzak is my leader, and there is harmony. He’s the worst receiver by far, but I may need to keep him as the PR for the long term, with concern to harmony.
The problem with that is some of these receivers with PR specialization are simply much better receivers too.
Simply put, I really can’t but Idzak unless I bring in a TE or WR with a leadership higher than Rasmussen’s, which is 89.
Is that person out there?
TE Frankie Polston, 14/35 has a leadership of 99.
There is no WR that meets those requirements.
Is Frankie worth signing? Here’s one thing, Frankie can sit in the inactive list, but if we put Idzak in as my PR, he has to get played. He’s not that good though. Hold on, let me check something.
No one currently has an affinity with Idzak, so Frankie may have people like him.
I release Idzak. Time to find out what happens.
Rasmussen becomes the leader. Harris Powell, my star, has a mild conflict. I can live with mild. Maybe some of the players I cut had conflicts.
With Idzak gone, I consider the PR race to be between Spencer and Segreaves. If I deem either a good enough player to make the cut at their position, then my choice is made for me. Let me do some checking.
Segreaves is a better receiver than Spencer is a corner. So, for now, Segreaves is in as my PR. I’ll keep Spencer on the roster for now, in case things change.
I need to keep either Ramsey or Bush. Both are pretty solid receivers, but Bush is a RB, so that’s not as good credit. Ramsey is the better player for his position, but the problem for that is if I go with Segreaves and Ramsey, I might not have room for the top receivers. Do I have top receivers?
Harris Powell – top
Jerry Reeves – top
Would I be comfortable going to the season with Powell, Reeves, Frederickson, Segreaves and Ramsey?
Yeah, I would.
Let’s cut some receivers. I’ll keep a few extra just in case.
William Okobi is a good possession receiver, with high avoid drops and route running and adjust and courage, but poor 3rd down and big play and downfield. Would I want that?
I cut Randy Myers and Jermaine Weber
Now time for kick return. I have Buchanan and Wilkins, both corners. The question then is, which is the better corner?
I cut Wilkins
I now have my PR, KR, and backup PR/KR man. Excellent.
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