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albionmoonlight 03-01-2021 04:09 PM

NFL 2021 Offseason/Draft Thread
 
Thomkal noted in the NFL 2020 season thread that we probably needed to start a new one. There's some JJ Watt talk over there that maybe a mod could move over here.

One guy I am interested in seeing what happens to is Trey Hendrickson.

He's a former 3rd round pick DE from Florida Atlantic. The book on him has been that he has a ceiling to his athleticism, but he plays incredibly hard. (And, yes, every white player from a small school is described as unathletic and a hard worker. But that's really all you hear about him from the coaches and local media. The guy plays every practice rep like it's the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. Even in a world where "great motor" is thrown around too much, apparently he really does have a notably amazing motor)

He's only 26 years old, and he's going into unrestricted free agency. And he just put up 13.5 sacks.

But if you really break down the numbers, you see that he got a lot of those sacks against single-team blocks b/c other guys on the D-line got extra attention.

And his high motor means that he's probably at or close to his ceiling.

I think that he's much more of a high-energy rotation guy/average starter than a double digit sack guy. If I had to predict, I would say that this season was a an outlier.

But, he's a 26-year-old DE with double digit sacks hitting unrestricted free agency. And those don't really ever hit the market.

So I am interested to see if some team overpays for him. All it would take is two teams to get into a bidding war to give him stupid money.

Or, do all 32 teams see him like I do?

Like I said, I'm interested to see where he ends up and for how much.

RendeR 03-01-2021 09:00 PM

All I know thus far is that if the Bengal's take another skill position player instead of the best possible OL available I just might jump ship to the bills for a few years.

I love the QB, I like the offense.

but for fucks sake stop talking about a worthless fucking overated TE and get the LINE FIXED!!!!


/end rant

QuikSand 03-01-2021 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3328816)
But, he's a 26-year-old DE with double digit sacks hitting unrestricted free agency. And those don't really ever hit the market.

So I am interested to see if some team overpays for him. All it would take is two teams to get into a bidding war to give him stupid money.

Or, do all 32 teams see him like I do?

Like I said, I'm interested to see where he ends up and for how much.


Same, I agree he's an intriguing prospect for the same reasons. I think there's NO chance that he gets overlooked here... he will have to get a fat deal, maybe not for a lot of years, but I feel confident he will land a fat paycheck based on that seemingly immense promise.

One other facet... players being let loose by teams in cap hell (like the Saints) lack the stigma of "well, they must know something" that others might carry.

Fool's gold. Have fun, Jags.

QuikSand 03-01-2021 10:23 PM

Last year, in the early phases of COVID, I ended up getting more into the draft than I ever had before, and I really liked it. So, I'm planning to try to do so again, if real life scheduling permits it. It's a fun sidelight.

I root for the Dolphins in real life, to a large degree, and they are a totally fascinating team to watch right now. Another year with a load of early picks makes it so, a young team with needs (but some real pieces to build around) definitely helps.

Right now, I'm strongly in favor of Chase > Waddle/Smith if the target is a WR as rumored (and which I support). I would be very open to sensibly trading down from pick 1.3 a few/several slots and still getting... Waddle, TE Pitts, or maybe LB Parsons.

QuikSand 03-01-2021 10:30 PM

My Dolphins Mock Draft, no trades:

3.
Miami Dolphins
Ja'Marr Chase
WR, LSU

18.
Miami Dolphins
Christian Darrisaw
OT, Virginia Tech

36.
Miami Dolphins
Trevon Moehrig
S, TCU

50.
Miami Dolphins
Javonte Williams
RB, North Carolina

81.
Miami Dolphins
Jabril Cox
LB, LSU

via Mock Draft Machine | The Draft Network

PilotMan 03-01-2021 10:41 PM

Nice to see Jarbil Cox getting a good look. He was such a beast at NDSU. Huge part of that defense. I get why he transferred, but it still sucked that he couldn't stay and finish it off with us.

albionmoonlight 03-02-2021 06:11 AM

Quik: How do you see Tua going forward? That seems to be the billion dollar question for the Dolphins. Based on your mock, I assume you are happy to keep riding with him?

QuikSand 03-02-2021 07:41 AM

On Tua, I think the reasoned take is to lower expectations, but not trash them. I think in my mind, I still see his floor being something like... maybe young/prime Andy Dalton, a competent and careful QB who can steer a good team pretty far. And I still think the original upside is there, it's just more hidden than it seemed before. The 2020 season, with an OC who didn't trust the young QB to use the whole playbook, is a weird data point, but not the only one.

With that in mind, I am open (more than many fans) to a trade for Watson. I'm actually more in love with the 1.3 pick than I am with Tua at this point, but that's human nature I guess. But if they could land Watson for Tua, 1.3, and another 1st... I think I would do it. Watson is pretty young and performing right around the upside you might hope for from Tua, and they have the cap framework to absorb Watson's contract. So, I'd do that, more or less. If the price tag is way higher, maybe not, but I am sellable there.

I would love to have a hero on the team, a guy I could root for for a decade, a face of the franchise. It's been quite a while. However, I would also be pretty happy to have a team built "fundamentally sound" and able to contend every year based on a sharp front office, including one that senses when its name players are not worth the huge contracts.

albionmoonlight 03-02-2021 08:12 AM



Dan Campbell will either be the worst coach in the league or the best.

bhlloy 03-02-2021 08:34 AM

I can tell you which one if you’d like

NobodyHere 03-02-2021 08:41 AM

Dan Campbell is an alpha and the Lions will finish omega.

I don't think I've ever been this depressed about a Lions season.

Honolulu_Blue 03-02-2021 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3328849)
I can tell you which one if you’d like


The best? Yeah?

Honolulu_Blue 03-02-2021 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3328850)
Dan Campbell is an alpha and the Lions will finish omega.

I don't think I've ever been this depressed about a Lions season.


While I am not yet on the Dan Campbell or Jared Goff trains (I doubt I'll ever be on the Goff train), anything is better than Quinntricia. I couldn't stand them. I'd much rather have a crazy-ass knee-biter than that smug, idiotic smarter-than-everyone-else pencil- behind-the-ear dude.

The Lions are in pretty bad shape with respect to the cap thanks to Quinn, have probably the worst defense talent-wise in the league, may have no wide receivers of note, and a very mediocre baby-handed quarterback, but at least, I hope, they have a plan and people who can execute it. They were never going to be bad enough to get good with Stafford, so hopefully they will be with Goff and maybe things will finally get better.

Honolulu_Blue 03-02-2021 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3328816)
Thomkal noted in the NFL 2020 season thread that we probably needed to start a new one. There's some JJ Watt talk over there that maybe a mod could move over here.

One guy I am interested in seeing what happens to is Trey Hendrickson.

He's a former 3rd round pick DE from Florida Atlantic. The book on him has been that he has a ceiling to his athleticism, but he plays incredibly hard. (And, yes, every white player from a small school is described as unathletic and a hard worker. But that's really all you hear about him from the coaches and local media. The guy plays every practice rep like it's the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. Even in a world where "great motor" is thrown around too much, apparently he really does have a notably amazing motor)

He's only 26 years old, and he's going into unrestricted free agency. And he just put up 13.5 sacks.

But if you really break down the numbers, you see that he got a lot of those sacks against single-team blocks b/c other guys on the D-line got extra attention.

And his high motor means that he's probably at or close to his ceiling.

I think that he's much more of a high-energy rotation guy/average starter than a double digit sack guy. If I had to predict, I would say that this season was a an outlier.

But, he's a 26-year-old DE with double digit sacks hitting unrestricted free agency. And those don't really ever hit the market.

So I am interested to see if some team overpays for him. All it would take is two teams to get into a bidding war to give him stupid money.

Or, do all 32 teams see him like I do?

Like I said, I'm interested to see where he ends up and for how much.


From The Athletic:

He’s a tricky player to project. Hendrickson finished second league-wide with 13.5 sacks and tied for eighth with 25 quarterback hits. But according to Brandon Thorn’s True Sack Rate, just three of Hendrickson’s sacks were high quality. In other words, he benefited from coverage sacks and clean-up sacks where teammates produced the initial pressure. Hendrickson had never played more than 38 percent of the defensive snaps in a season prior to 2020, when he was on the field 53 percent of the time. Teams will have to weigh his 2020 production against previous years to determine whether Hendrickson is a one-year wonder or an ascending player. He had 6.5 sacks and 18 QB hits during his first three seasons.

larrymcg421 03-02-2021 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3328846)
On Tua, I think the reasoned take is to lower expectations, but not trash them. I think in my mind, I still see his floor being something like... maybe young/prime Andy Dalton, a competent and careful QB who can steer a good team pretty far. And I still think the original upside is there, it's just more hidden than it seemed before. The 2020 season, with an OC who didn't trust the young QB to use the whole playbook, is a weird data point, but not the only one.

With that in mind, I am open (more than many fans) to a trade for Watson. I'm actually more in love with the 1.3 pick than I am with Tua at this point, but that's human nature I guess. But if they could land Watson for Tua, 1.3, and another 1st... I think I would do it. Watson is pretty young and performing right around the upside you might hope for from Tua, and they have the cap framework to absorb Watson's contract. So, I'd do that, more or less. If the price tag is way higher, maybe not, but I am sellable there.

I would love to have a hero on the team, a guy I could root for for a decade, a face of the franchise. It's been quite a while. However, I would also be pretty happy to have a team built "fundamentally sound" and able to contend every year based on a sharp front office, including one that senses when its name players are not worth the huge contracts.


Pretty much +1 to all of this.

I think many of Tua's issues, especially checking down too much and playing it safe, can be minimized if he has a breakaway WR and a full camp.

Lathum 03-02-2021 11:33 AM

I think Tua is going to be a bust. I didn't see him do one thing well last year. He got benched for Fitz, and looked scared out there.

I'm not sure he was ever that good. He benefited playing behind an NFL offensive line and throwing to probably the greatest collection of WRs a college QB has ever had. Mac Jones was every bit as good as Tua evert was this year, and is he considered just as good?

albionmoonlight 03-02-2021 12:17 PM

I think that the Andy Dalton comparison for Tua is good. I would have said Alex Smith or Ryan Tannehill. A guy who can take a good team far, but probably not going to be the Tanking for Tua superstar that we all thought his junior year.

albionmoonlight 03-02-2021 12:19 PM

FWIW, I also think that all of the smoke around Russell Wilson leaving Seattle does not have any fire behind it.

Russ was signaling to the team "Hey, y'all get serious about getting me an offensive line." It feels much more like negotiating through the media than a real threat to leave.

In contrast, I don't think that Watson is going to play another snap for the Texans. He'll sit out the whole year if he has to. That relationship seems beyond broken.

QuikSand 03-02-2021 04:13 PM

Back to Watson... PFF has a mock draft up showing MIA dealing for Watson, and their projected compensation is:

Quote:

Miami receives: Deshaun Watson

Houston receives: Tua Tagovailoa (remember this for later), Xavien Howard, Pick Nos. 3 and 18 and another future first-rounder

Yeah, that's probably up to and past my "worth it" line, but who knows.



via: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-...tlanta-falcons

QuikSand 03-02-2021 04:18 PM

...and just musing here, but if that's what some wiseguys think that Miami might have to pay to get Watson... what does a team like, say, Washington have to put up to get him? They don't have the super-exciting early pick this year, nor the just-drafted-QB-prospect that Miami does. What would they have to pay" Double Ditka and then some?

I mean, I get it... a great young QB just does not become available in the NFL. I guess if this guy actually does, he deserves to command more in trade than just Joey Galloway or even Khalil Mack.

Lathum 03-02-2021 04:19 PM

If you are the Dolphins you do that in a heartbeat. Watson is a generational talent. Take the proven commodity.

Lathum 03-02-2021 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3328902)
...and just musing here, but if that's what some wiseguys think that Miami might have to pay to get Watson... what does a team like, say, Washington have to put up to get him? They don't have the super-exciting early pick this year, nor the just-drafted-QB-prospect that Miami does. What would they have to pay" Double Ditka and then some?

I mean, I get it... a great young QB just does not become available in the NFL. I guess if this guy actually does, he deserves to command more in trade than just Joey Galloway or even Khalil Mack.


It would start with Chase Young and at least 3 first round picks.

AlexB 03-02-2021 04:25 PM

That’s a long way past mine! I reckon this is a year to draft a bunch of extra weapons, give Tua a full season, hopefully after a relatively normal preseason (remember he hasn’t had one yet) and then if we need a QB sell the farm for the next couple of years for a QB next offseason

That way we can hopefully have a nucleus of young players that means we can afford to trade future drafts: if we trade this years picks, there’s no way of getting & affording the weapons Watson needs this year or next, and it’s more middle of the road stagnation.

OK, it won’t be Watson next offseason, but this way we might find Tua is the man, but if not and we draft well we might not need a top tier QB, we might just need a 2nd tier guy who should cost less too.

Lathum 03-02-2021 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3328906)

That way we can hopefully have a nucleus of young players that means we can afford to trade future drafts: if we trade this years picks, there’s no way of getting & affording the weapons Watson needs this year or next, and it’s more middle of the road stagnation.

.


Plenty of weapons available in the later rounds. The dolphins are a lot better and won't have the kind of equity in draft picks they have with not only the 3rd, but a QB taken top 5 they can send over. This is the best chance they have got at landing a top 5 QB just entering his prime.

Carman Bulldog 03-02-2021 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3328868)
FWIW, I also think that all of the smoke around Russell Wilson leaving Seattle does not have any fire behind it.

Russ was signaling to the team "Hey, y'all get serious about getting me an offensive line." It feels much more like negotiating through the media than a real threat to leave.

In contrast, I don't think that Watson is going to play another snap for the Texans. He'll sit out the whole year if he has to. That relationship seems beyond broken.


Have you read The Athletic breakdown on it by Michael-Shawn Dugar? I have not (and have let my subscription lapse) but he was on the Around the NFL podcast and apparently there have been breadcrumbs put out there for awhile about it. He's actually projecting more 2022 rather than this year, the caveat being that if the Seahawks have more success (ie. a run to the Super Bowl) things could obviously change.

albionmoonlight 03-04-2021 12:26 PM

Maybe a bit more fire there than I've suspected . . .


Vince, Pt. II 03-04-2021 01:04 PM

That seems insane to me.

larrymcg421 03-04-2021 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3328900)
Back to Watson... PFF has a mock draft up showing MIA dealing for Watson, and their projected compensation is:



Yeah, that's probably up to and past my "worth it" line, but who knows.



via: 2021 NFL Mock Draft: Panthers move up for BYU QB Zach Wilson, LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase heads to Atlanta | NFL Draft | PFF


I would take this deal if the Dolphins could keep either the #18 or Howard.

QuikSand 03-04-2021 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3329077)
I would take this deal if the Dolphins could keep either the #18 or Howard.


...probably around my line too, tbh

MIJB#19 03-04-2021 01:54 PM

Houston sends Watson
Seattle sends Wilson, 5th round pick

bhlloy 03-04-2021 04:19 PM

Assuming that's just a rumor or throwing something out there, there's less than zero chance of that. Wilson has a full NTC, a list of 4 teams he'll accept a trade to and Houston is probably the team with the least chance of winning over the next 3-4 years given the damage that BOB did there in terms of talent and futures.

miami_fan 03-04-2021 04:28 PM

Ben's back.

Ben Roethlisberger signs with Pittsburgh Steelers for 2021 NFL season

albionmoonlight 03-04-2021 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3329093)


Happy to see that as a Saints fan. The more teams that are out of the "we need a QB" sweepstakes the better.

MIJB#19 03-05-2021 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy (Post 3329091)
Assuming that's just a rumor or throwing something out there, there's less than zero chance of that. Wilson has a full NTC, a list of 4 teams he'll accept a trade to and Houston is probably the team with the least chance of winning over the next 3-4 years given the damage that BOB did there in terms of talent and futures.

Yeah, just throwing an idea out there.
If they want to come out of a deal with a quality quarterback, I think the best Houston and Seattle can do is exchange their players. But yeah, you do have much more valid points. :D

JPhillips 03-05-2021 01:25 PM

If I could get Watson for Wilson and a 5th I'd have it done within the hour.

A caller, 49ers fan, on WFAN said he wouldn't trade George Kittel for Watson. I love fans.

albionmoonlight 03-05-2021 03:14 PM

I love this idea. Kudos to the Ravens for thinking creatively.

Wild NFL rule change could be coming to overtime games if owners vote through Ravens' proposal, per report - CBSSports.com

Kodos 03-05-2021 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3329152)


Sounds pretty cool to me too.

bronconick 03-05-2021 03:47 PM

Article also says someone suggested going back to the old dumb sudden death version, which I think we can guess which one will be chosen now.

AlexB 03-05-2021 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3329156)
Sounds pretty cool to me too.


TBH it ‘ll just mean every overtime drive starts on the 50.

sovereignstar v2 03-05-2021 06:02 PM

Why would the winner of the coin toss ever pick the 50 yard line? The loser would pick offense every single time.

BYU 14 03-05-2021 06:21 PM

Yeah, I would think the 30 would be most prudent. If you don't advance you can pin the other team inside their 30 too

AlexB 03-05-2021 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2 (Post 3329176)
Why would the winner of the coin toss ever pick the 50 yard line? The loser would pick offense every single time.


I misread it, I thought you had the 50, 40, 30, etc, and then chose O/D, and not the 50, 60, 70..

albionmoonlight 03-05-2021 06:27 PM

Fun to think which coach would be the best and which the worst at this. I think Bill Walsh would have been really good. Cold and calculating and really smart.

Lots of candidates for the worst. I feel like Mike Ditka would have misunderstood it and let the other team start on his five yard line and then fired an assistant coach over it on Monday.

AlexB 03-05-2021 06:31 PM

Edit: misread it again

Carman Bulldog 03-05-2021 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2 (Post 3329176)
Why would the winner of the coin toss ever pick the 50 yard line? The loser would pick offense every single time.


Right? It's interesting to consider how far deep to put a team. While on it's surface, own-25 may seem like a "safe" call, I think if I'm a coach I still take offence every time in that scenario.

The average drive is around 30 yards. Let's say the other team says own 25-yard-line. Even on a bad drive, we go 3-and-out, but hopefully still gain about 5-8 yards and then an average 40-yard net punt. That puts the other team between their 25 and 30, and they still need around 35 yards to get into field goal range. Even if we only manage say 25 yards, we can still then hopefully trap them deep on a punt.

So maybe own 15-yard-line becomes the point where you really need to start thinking about how does my offence match up against their defence, how does our defence matchup to their offence, etc. If we go 3-and-out from the 15, then we risk giving them the ball around midfield.

I do wonder if the rule gets more interesting if you abolish punting in overtime. Then you really need to have faith in your offence if you call something like the 25-yard line and the other team says "have the ball."

Carman Bulldog 03-05-2021 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3329182)
Yeah, I would think the 30 would be most prudent. If you don't advance you can pin the other team inside their 30 too


See my post above, but if you are Team A and say "own-30," I think I'm taking offence every single time if I'm Team B. Like you said, even if you don't advance much on offence, you still have a good shot at pinning them deep.

Carman Bulldog 03-05-2021 06:55 PM

Triple Dola:

Pro Football Talk explains it better than CBS does...

Quote:

It works like this: One team picks the spot of the ball to start overtime, and the other team chooses whether to play offense or defense.

If the one team picks, for example, the offense’s own 20 yard line, the opponent would then choose whether to play offense from their own 20 or to play defense, with the other team having the ball on its own 20. This would minimize greatly the impact of the coin toss; under this proposal, the coin toss would be used only to give the team that wins the toss the right to pick the spot of the ball (along with the end zone to be defended) or to choose offense or defense.

The article also says the break even point is believed to be around the 13-yard-line, so not far from what I speculated on with the 15.

bhlloy 03-05-2021 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3329183)
I misread it, I thought you had the 50, 40, 30, etc, and then chose O/D, and not the 50, 60, 70..


This would be the better rule for me. I think the Ravens proposal ends up with everyone playing it conservative and a ton of ties, FWIW. I'd be perfectly fine with the college rule to be honest.

QuikSand 03-05-2021 09:43 PM

This sounds like a classic game theory warmup puzzle about perfecting the way to cut a cake for two to share (first person cuts, second person chooses).

I think it is not a massive change to the way they do it now (I assume the detractors are mainly just missing the setup), but would just tilt the scales a bit closer to even. Good idea, but there wouldn't be wild variations in the way it worked out.

Carman Bulldog 03-06-2021 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3329208)
This sounds like a classic game theory warmup puzzle about perfecting the way to cut a cake for two to share (first person cuts, second person chooses).

I think it is not a massive change to the way they do it now (I assume the detractors are mainly just missing the setup), but would just tilt the scales a bit closer to even. Good idea, but there wouldn't be wild variations in the way it worked out.


I think you're right. I believe the idea is to basically eliminate the impact/imbalance of the coin toss and also negate anyone's ability to complain about the fairness.


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