Front Office Football Central - Some Combine Benchmarks (and Drafting Thoughts)

Page 1 of 4

Show 100 post(s) from this thread on one page

Front Office Football Central (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//index.php)

- FOF9, FOF8, and TCY Discussion (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//forumdisplay.php?f=33)

- - Some Combine Benchmarks (and Drafting Thoughts) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=72313)

MalcPow

05-11-2009 08:43 PM

Some Combine Benchmarks (and Drafting Thoughts)

It's been awhile since I've made much of a contribution to the community's knowledge base about the game, so I thought I'd post some helpful data I've gleaned over a lot of seasons of draft classes and some tinkering with imported draft files. I'll also try to share some general commentary on the things I'm posting. I haven't done a lot of FOF playing in a good amount of time (other than staying just ahead of the axe in my remaining MP leagues), so most of this stuff will be put to far better use as a starting point for discussion and analysis from you guys. I really hope somebody has it in them to polish some of my less formed thinking on some of this stuff for ease of digestion.

There's a fair amount of information to get through, so I'll likely post position groups one at a time until I have to stop for whatever reason. I'll pick up wherever that might be (if it's not the end), some time fairly soon. So here we go...

I'll use this first section as a way to prepare you for the formatting that follows. As many of you know, the game rates players on a scale from 375 to 625, with 375 essentially equivalent to 0 and 625 equivalent to 100 on the visible ratings in game. (No idea why 375-625, it must just work somehow.) In the charts that follow the first column will be an increment of 25 on that scale from 625 down to 375, basically taking you down the visible rating scale in multiples of 10. To the right of that column will be two rows, representing the max and min score observed for a player with all possible attributes set to the value in the first column (all ratings at 625, or all at 375, or all at 500, etc., etc., in an imported draft file of 1000 players for each position group).

The corresponding figures should make you reasonably confident of what might be possible as a ceiling (or basement) for a draftee you're looking at. Some guys have combines that are only possible for a truly elite player, and if the player's other combines fall within the constraints in these charts, he's a very attractive prospect. In my notes about each position group I'll try to highlight combines or scores that don't seem to matter as much for that particular position based on the observation of real draft classes. I'll also try to sprinkle in other random observations.

QBs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        8.4        9.6        4.3        55        22        6.92        120        99

        4.4        5        4.62        28        14        7.8        107        82

                                                                

600        7.9        9        4.3        55        22        6.94        120        99

        3.8        4.3        4.71        28        12        7.8        106        76

                                                                

575        7.9        9        4.33        55        21        6.99        120        98

        4        4.6        4.79        28        10        7.8        103        71

                                                                

550        7        8        4.47        50        17        7.14        117        92

        2.8        3.2        4.84        28        10        7.8        102        67

                                                                

525        7        8        4.47        49        17        7.12        117        93

        3.5        4        4.84        28        10        7.8        102        68

                                                                

500        6.7        7.7        4.55        47        15        7.22        114        87

        3        3.4        4.84        20        10        8.01        102        67

                                                                

475        6.4        7.3        4.59        47        14        7.24        114        85

        2.7        3.1        4.84        18        10        8.15        102        67

                                                                

450        6.2        7.1        4.61        46        14        7.12        114        83

        2.5        2.8        4.84        15        10        8.17        102        67

                                                                

425        5.8        6.6        4.84        45        10        7.17        108        70

        2.2        2.5        5        17        7        8.16        95        56

                                                                

400        5.9        6.7        4.85        42        9        7.33        107        69

        1.5        1.7        5.13        10        6        8.34        91        49

                                                                

375        3.6        4.1        5.02        41        7        7.33        101        58

        1        1.1        5.15        8        6        8.4        90        47

I'll make another quick note here that persists throughout: the Grade and Adj columns may have some innacurracy at the very very far margins. When dealing with a combine skipper, things can get wacky in very rare instances. If your guy went to the combine, however, he's going to fit within those constraints. Another phenomenon to note throughout: look at the lower constraint for agility on quarterbacks ranging from 100/100 guys to 60/60 guys. It's 7.80 for all of them. That is not to imply that agility scores are normally distributed between the two constraints for each of the buckets between those ratings, they're not. It's just a cutoff point, meant to do a very good job of making our lives interesting when evaluating the vast majority of prospects. You will see a lot 4.84/28/10/7.8/102/70 QBs, you'll have to look for other cues to figure out if you've got a 60/60 starter or a 20/20 bum.

So having made those points, some analysis...

-Don't draft QBs with a bench lower than 10. As we'll discuss with some other criteria, some of these constraints are best used as rules of thumb and not hard boundaries. (Remember, we're talking about guys with across the board attribute ratings at a certain level. It's quite possible you can land effective guys with a different mix of certain ratings or something. Just be dang skeptical of them.) I use 10 bench as a hard boundary for QBs. It's really just not worth messing with guys below that in my opinion.

-Masking... (I'll make these points where I can). Players that are being heavily masked as QBs often have high bars in certain attributes or certain paired attributes. Masked QBs, especially quality guys, will almost always have high sense rush coupled with a high long passing bar or a pair of high bars in the following combinations: med/timing, short/acc, 3rd/two min, and deep/read. No combine guys are more likely to be masked in this way.

-It bears repeating, sense rush is a great indicator. It's very reassuring to see a high sense rush bar. Be skeptical of guys with a sense rush bar way out of whack with the rest of their bars.

-Forget about dash. It correlates to scramble frequency. You can use these boundaries to check against that bar if you want, but I wouldn't rule a guy out based on his dash.

-Look for outliers, guys with a bench >17 or bjump>117 should jump out at you anyway (because they'll likely have great other scores), but every once in awhile you can grab a steal.

-Be very wary of guys with even one score outside the constraints of a bucket you think he might be in (unless it's dash). It's simply a bad sign, and unless you really feel pressed to roll the dice, it's best to stay away.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 08:58 PM

RBs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        8.2        8.7        4.29        43        27        6.82        132        40

        4.4        4.7        4.55        18        19        7.13        120        26

                                                                

600        8        8.5        4.29        43        27        6.82        132        40

        4.5        4.8        4.6        18        17        7.22        117        22

                                                                

575        7.6        8.1        4.3        43        27        6.83        132        40

        4.1        4.3        4.64        18        16        7.31        117        17

                                                                

550        7.4        7.9        4.41        42        22        6.98        129        37

        3.8        4        4.65        12        15        7.35        115        17

                                                                

525        7.2        7.7        4.39        43        22        6.99        128        37

        3.5        3.7        4.65        15        15        7.35        114        17

                                                                

500        6.8        7.2        4.45        42        20        7.07        127        33

        3.5        3.7        4.65        13        15        7.35        114        17

                                                                

475        6.1        6.5        4.48        35        20        7.1        126        32

        3        3.2        4.65        10        15        7.35        114        11

                                                                

450        6        6.4        4.48        38        19        7.13        124        32

        3.3        3.5        4.75        10        15        7.35        114        9

                                                                

425        5.8        6.2        4.5        37        15        7.35        120        30

        2.7        2.8        4.8        8        11        7.58        108        7

                                                                

400        5        5.3        4.65        34        14        7.37        119        20

        1.9        2        4.85        8        9        7.77        103        4

                                                                

375        4        4.2        4.71        32        11        7.6        113        16

        1.5        1.6        4.85        8        9        7.8        102        4

-To elaborate somewhat further on the sense rush bar noted above... some bars (especially ones more intuitively associated with purely physical skills) seem to (almost?) never be masked. With RBs, breakaway/power inside/speed to the outside seem to be those kinds of ratings. If they're high and other bars are low, you might have something. I usually go looking for high speed to the outside guys in FA that have a high breakaway bar as well.

-RBs are kind of tough to be honest. I've seen good players with position scores and bjumps below the constraints here.

-Masking: I'll note this with WRs/TEs as well, but it seems the mask pairs for receving skills are GD/End and RR/SS. If you see some high bar pairs there and other reasons to be optimistic, it's a very good sign.

-Blitz pickup... there might be something here as well.

-I don't have RBs figured out really. Use these figures as a guide, look for some high bars, cross your fingers... it might even be worth interviewing them. :)

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:02 PM

FBs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        7.5        6.1        4.52        43        34        6.92        120        50

        4.5        3.6        4.78        20        24        7.36        107        29

                                                                

600        7.1        5.8        4.56        43        34        6.94        119        50

        4        3.2        4.78        20        22        7.47        105        26

                                                                

575        6.7        5.4        4.59        43        33        6.97        117        47

        3.7        3        4.78        20        21        7.56        102        23

                                                                

550        6.3        5.1        4.63        40        28        7.12        116        47

        3.3        2.7        4.78        15        20        7.6        102        22

                                                                

525        6.2        5        4.63        41        28        7.13        115        47

        3.4        2.7        4.78        17        20        7.6        102        22

                                                                

500        5.7        4.6        4.78        41        26        7.23        115        45

        2.7        2.2        4.87        14        20        7.6        102        22

                                                                

475        5.7        4.6        4.78        38        26        7.25        115        42

        2.6        2.1        4.88        12        20        7.6        102        15

                                                                

450        5.5        4.5        4.78        38        25        7.28        113        41

        2.2        1.8        4.89        13        20        7.6        102        15

                                                                

425        5.2        4.2        4.78        38        24        7.35        111        37

        2.3        1.8        4.92        10        20        7.6        102        13

                                                                

400        4.4        3.6        4.82        36        19        7.61        107        25

        1.3        1        4.95        10        14        8.15        91        7

                                                                

375        2.7        2.2        4.88        33        16        7.93        99        19

        1        0.8        4.95        10        14        8.2        80        7

-Some of the same receiving attribute mask pairs noted above apply here.

-High blocking strength is a good sign, and again, it seems to be one of those physical stats that isn't really masked. (For whatever good it does.)

-Don't overthink the FBs dude. Use the numbers as a guide. Don't draft one in the first round unless you're vulturing for Subby.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:11 PM

TEs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        7.9        6.9        4.44        47        36        7.12        128        55

        4.8        4.2        4.68        21        22        7.53        110        39

                                                                

600        7.5        6.6        4.44        47        36        7.12        128        55

        4        3.5        4.72        21        22        7.62        107        36

                                                                

575        7.3        6.4        4.47        46        36        7.16        126        53

        3.9        3.4        4.76        21        22        7.72        106        32

                                                                

550        6.8        5.9        4.58        45        36        7.31        122        51

        3.8        3.3        4.78        18        20        7.75        102        32

                                                                

525        6.5        5.7        4.58        42        35        7.32        123        51

        3.3        2.9        4.78        15        20        7.75        102        32

                                                                

500        6.2        5.4        4.62        42        31        7.41        118        48

        2.9        2.5        4.78        15        16        7.75        102        32

                                                                

475        5.9        5.1        4.63        41        31        7.42        118        47

        2.9        2.5        4.78        13        16        7.75        102        23

                                                                

450        5.7        5        4.65        38        31        7.46        117        47

        2.8        2.4        4.78        13        15        7.75        102        16

                                                                

425        5.5        4.8        4.67        38        30        7.51        115        45

        2.5        2.2        4.78        13        15        7.75        102        15

                                                                

400        4.7        4.1        4.79        37        27        7.76        107        35

        1.5        1.3        4.99        10        15        8.42        91        8

                                                                

375        3.9        3.4        4.91        33        22        8.17        101        29

        1.3        1.1        5        10        15        8.5        90        7

-Same mask pairs for receiving skills noted above.

-Look at Big Play. This will be even more important with WRs, but a nice Big Play bar on a tight end is both fairly rare and a good sign. As with all this stuff, use it as a way to confirm the other things you're seeing.

-Blocking strength. Again, you can be fairly sure this bar isn't masked. I sometimes look at a really high strength bar with what might otherwise be a more middling bench combine (but within the high constraints) and make a guess that a guy's other more middling combines (within high constraints) might be indicative of high bars in those corresponding skills as well. Probably worth noting as another broad observation that a guy with great combines is usually pretty good in all of them and not a total stud in some and at the very bottom of the constraints in others.

-I don't get too excited on these guys. But another general note for both TEs and WRs seems to be that the agil score is not totally critical. You'll see quality players with pretty crappy agil scores, but not studs.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:21 PM

WRs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        7.9        8.2        4.25        45        21        6.72        136        70

        4.8        5        4.43        18        14        7.01        122        52

                                                                

600        7.7        8        4.25        44        21        6.72        136        70

        4.1        4.3        4.46        18        13        7.08        119        47

                                                                

575        7.4        7.7        4.26        45        20        6.74        134        69

        3.4        3.5        4.49        18        11        7.15        117        42

                                                                

550        6.8        7.1        4.37        45        16        6.87        133        67

        3.4        3.5        4.51        15        11        7.2        114        42

                                                                

525        6.6        6.9        4.37        44        16        6.88        132        65

        3.4        3.5        4.51        14        11        7.2        114        42

                                                                

500        6.4        6.7        4.4        41        15        6.94        130        60

        3.1        3.2        4.51        10        11        7.2        114        42

                                                                

475        6.2        6.5        4.41        42        14        6.99        127        60

        2.4        2.5        4.51        9        11        7.2        114        33

                                                                

450        5.8        6        4.42        40        14        7.01        126        59

        2.3        2.4        4.51        10        11        7.2        114        31

                                                                

425        5.5        5.7        4.51        39        11        7.2        120        57

        2.3        2.4        4.66        9        7        7.4        108        23

                                                                

400        4.4        4.6        4.52        35        10        7.22        119        45

        1.6        1.6        4.78        7        5        7.55        103        18

                                                                

375        3.7        3.8        4.67        31        7        7.42        112        37

        1.2        1.2        4.8        7        5        7.6        102        17

-I think the numbers will be pretty helpful here. My general opinion, and I think it's shared by many, is that dash is king. This should give you a sense of what a truly elite dash might be though.

-Big Play. It's a great check. You can have some pretty good receivers with low big play, but you'll also note they usually had a dash score within the constraints commensurate with their overall talent.

-Basically, don't draft a guy with a dash over 4.51.

-BJump is just return skills. I'd only use these numbers to check those bars if you're looking for a return guy.

-Masking. Same receiving pairs noted above. Basically you're looking for GD/End and RR/ST coupled with a high Big Play. Adjst, 3rd, Courage, and Avoid can all be single high bars along with a high Big Play as well. Look for these patterns and use other data to draw conclusions.

-I've seen some solid guys with crappy agil scores. A great agil score (and the corresponding getting downfield bar) seems to have some performance benefit though, so let your own personal preferences rule there.

-Don't fall in love with >15 bench guys. I do it regularly, but it's not clear to me it's really all that sound.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:26 PM

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp

625        8        8.8        4.86        47        43        7.32        114

        4.4        4.8        5.14        9        29        7.64        98

                                                        

600        7.9        8.7        4.86        47        43        7.32        114

        4.3        4.7        5.2        9        28        7.71        94

                                                        

575        7.4        8.2        4.88        47        43        7.36        112

        3.8        4.2        5.25        9        28        7.78        93

                                                        

550        7        7.7        5.01        47        42        7.48        110

        3.5        3.8        5.27        9        24        7.8        90

                                                        

525        6.8        7.5        5.01        47        43        7.49        110

        3.1        3.4        5.27        9        25        7.8        90

                                                        

500        6.3        6.9        5.07        47        38        7.57        106

        3.2        3.5        5.27        9        22        7.8        90

                                                        

475        6.2        6.8        5.08        47        38        7.57        105

        3.2        3.5        5.27        9        20        7.8        90

                                                        

450        6        6.6        5.1        47        37        7.59        105

        2.9        3.2        5.27        9        19        7.8        90

                                                        

425        5.7        6.3        5.13        47        37        7.62        104

        2.5        2.7        5.27        9        19        7.8        90

                                                        

400        4.7        5.2        5.28        47        34        7.81        95

        1.6        1.7        5.56        9        19        8.35        81

                                                        

375        3.7        4.1        5.46        47        28        8.13        90

        1.3        1.4        5.6        9        19        8.4        80

-Blocking strength is one of those not really masked bars. Look for a strong man to keep you warm.

-Masking. Common mask seems to be a single high blocking strength bar with lower run, pass, and end bars. Another one seems to be all bars except pass blocking high. Again, look for this stuff and use other data to draw conclusions.

-Look for the outliers in dash and agil. I keep an eye out at all times for a sub 5 dash and an agil in the 7.4s. Usually these guys are obvious studs, sometimes you get a steal.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:28 PM

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp

625        8.2        7.8        4.85        47        43        7.42        110

        4.5        4.3        5.14        11        28        7.74        94

                                                        

600        8.1        7.7        4.85        47        43        7.43        110

        4.5        4.3        5.18        11        28        7.8        92

                                                        

575        7.9        7.5        4.88        47        43        7.44        108

        3.8        3.6        5.25        11        27        7.88        89

                                                        

550        7.3        7        5        47        41        7.58        107

        3.8        3.6        5.27        11        25        7.9        88

                                                        

525        7.1        6.8        5.01        47        42        7.59        107

        3.4        3.2        5.27        11        24        7.9        88

                                                        

500        6.8        6.5        5.06        47        41        7.65        103

        3.4        3.2        5.27        11        21        7.9        88

                                                        

475        6.5        6.2        5.07        47        38        7.66        103

        3.2        3        5.27        11        21        7.9        88

                                                        

450        6.4        6.1        5.1        47        35        7.69        102

        3        2.8        5.27        11        21        7.9        88

                                                        

425        5.9        5.6        5.13        47        35        7.73        100

        2.8        2.6        5.27        11        21        7.9        88

                                                        

400        5.1        4.8        5.28        47        33        7.92        92

        2        1.9        5.48        11        21        8.45        79

-Basically the same stuff as the Ts.

-Apparently I didn't grab the scores for the 375 guys. You'll likely get over it.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:30 PM

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp

625        7.5        6.5        4.87        49        39        7.52        110

        4.2        3.6        5.17        13        26        7.84        95

                                                        

600        7.3        6.3        4.87        49        39        7.52        110

        4.1        3.5        5.23        13        25        7.91        94

                                                        

575        6.8        5.9        4.9        49        39        7.54        109

        3.5        3        5.29        13        25        7.98        91

                                                        

550        6.5        5.6        5.03        49        39        7.68        106

        3        2.6        5.31        13        21        8        88

-I'm not that into the Cs. Apologies. Probably best to stay away if a guy's outside these numbers.

-And yeah, same masking stuff as Ts/Gs.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:31 PM

P/Ks

-YOU THOUGHT YOU WERE GETTING ALL MY SECRETS???!!!1!!11

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:38 PM

DEs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp

625        8.2        9.1        4.53        46        40        6.92        130

        5.1        5.6        4.76        21        28        7.36        115

                                                        

600        8.1        8.9        4.53        46        40        6.92        130

        4.8        5.3        4.8        18        28        7.47        110

                                                        

575        7.8        8.6        4.55        45        40        6.98        129

        4.6        5.1        4.84        15        27        7.56        109

                                                        

550        6.9        7.6        4.66        43        36        7.12        126

        4.3        4.7        4.85        13        27        7.6        106

                                                        

525        7        7.7        4.67        45        37        7.14        124

        3.9        4.3        4.85        12        26        7.6        106

                                                        

500        6.5        7.2        4.7        44        33        7.23        122

        3.2        3.5        4.85        9        21        7.6        106

                                                        

475        6.5        7.2        4.71        40        33        7.24        121

        3.1        3.4        4.85        10        21        7.6        106

                                                        

450        6.1        6.7        4.73        41        33        7.28        120

        3.2        3.5        4.85        9        19        7.6        106

                                                        

425        5.8        6.4        4.75        41        32        7.33        118

        2.7        2.9        4.85        9        18        7.6        106

                                                        

400        4.7        5.2        4.86        40        31        7.61        111

        2        2.2        5.12        9        18        8.14        95

                                                        

375        3.8        4.2        5.02        38        27        7.94        104

        1.6        1.7        5.15        9        18        8.2        94

-I've started looking for agil outliers lately and have had some real success. Every few draft classes you'll see a <7.12 guy who isn't a clear stud.

-Masking. Rush strength and punishing hitter seem to be the physical skills that are seldom masked. Look for a guy with big bars in both and check the other data points. Another common mask seems to be all high bars and a low PR Tech bar.

-There are some decent guys with dash scores slower than the constraints. Not studs, but useful guys.

-Bjump correlates with endurance. It seems you can get some good guys with low bjump scores. But that's another one where I look for a big time outlier score as a stud sign.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:40 PM

DTs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp

625        8.3        9        4.8        44        43        7.12        120

        5        5.4        5        20        29        7.55        106

                                                        

600        8.2        8.9        4.8        44        43        7.12        120

        5.2        5.6        5.03        14        29        7.67        102

                                                        

575        7.9        8.6        4.81        44        42        7.15        118

        4.5        4.9        5.06        15        28        7.76        100

                                                        

550        7.4        8        4.92        44        40        7.32        115

        4        4.3        5.07        12        28        7.8        100

                                                        

525        7.3        7.9        4.92        42        38        7.34        113

        4        4.3        5.07        11        26        7.8        99

                                                        

500        6.6        7.1        4.96        40        37        7.43        112

        3.4        3.7        5.07        8        24        7.8        98

                                                        

475        6.5        7        4.96        43        36        7.44        112

        3.2        3.4        5.07        9        23        7.8        98

                                                        

450        6.3        6.8        4.97        44        36        7.49        110

        3.2        3.4        5.07        9        22        7.8        98

                                                        

425        6        6.5        5        37        34        7.54        111

        2.9        3.1        5.07        8        21        7.8        98

                                                        

400        5.4        5.8        5.08        37        34        7.81        103

        2.1        2.2        5.38        8        21        8.44        80

                                                        

375        3.4        3.7        5.26        35        28        8.19        90

        1.7        1.8        5.4        8        21        8.5        78

-Basically all the DE points apply, just look to the DT numbers above.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:47 PM

ILBs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        7.8        7.6        4.52        51        35        7.07        124        50

        4.1        4        4.76        24        22        7.42        109        36

                                                                

600        7.6        7.4        4.53        51        35        7.07        124        50

        3.6        3.5        4.81        21        21        7.5        106        33

                                                                

575        7.3        7.1        4.53        50        35        7.11        123        48

        3.6        3.5        4.85        17        21        7.57        104        29

                                                                

550        6.7        6.5        4.65        51        34        7.24        121        46

        3.5        3.4        4.86        16        20        7.6        104        27

                                                                

525        6.5        6.3        4.66        51        33        7.25        122        44

        3        2.9        4.86        17        20        7.6        104        27

                                                                

500        6.1        5.9        4.7        46        29        7.33        119        41

        2.5        2.4        4.86        15        17        7.6        104        27

                                                                

475        6.2        6        4.71        47        29        7.33        119        42

        2.8        2.7        4.86        14        15        7.6        100        27

                                                                

450        5.8        5.6        4.72        47        28        7.37        116        40

        2.6        2.5        4.86        13        14        7.6        97        27

                                                                

425        5.6        5.4        4.75        44        27        7.4        115        38

        2.3        2.2        4.86        13        14        7.6        94        27

                                                                

400        5        4.9        4.87        43        25        7.61        110        29

        1.6        1.5        5.04        13        14        8.06        91        9

                                                                

375        3.2        3.1        4.98        39        21        7.89        107        18

        1.2        1.1        5.06        13        14        8.1        90        7

-Seems like dash can be slower than the constraints, but I'd still look to that score for stud material.

-The Pos score is a little wacky. You'll never see an actual draft class guy with a 50, because you'll never see an LB with maxed ratings in Man and Zone coverage, Interceptions, stuff like that. (LBs max at ~75ish or something there.) You also won't see a ton of guys over that magic 27 bottom constraint, even clearly good players come in beneath there sometimes. So take it for what it's worth. I basically just assume that a guy a less than 27 pos score probably won't be much use as a coverage guy, but he'll still have some value.

-Rush strength and punishing hitter. Look for those high bars and other data points for some good guys.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:49 PM

OLBs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        7.8        7.5        4.4        49        30        6.92        128        50

        4.1        3.9        4.62        22        19        7.24        113        35

                                                                

600        7.7        7.4        4.4        49        30        6.92        128        50

        4.1        3.9        4.66        19        18        7.31        110        31

                                                                

575        7.1        6.8        4.43        49        30        6.95        128        47

        3.8        3.6        4.7        18        18        7.38        109        28

                                                                

550        6.8        6.5        4.53        49        26        7.08        127        45

        3.4        3.2        4.71        15        18        7.4        108        27

                                                                

525        6.6        6.4        4.54        49        26        7.09        125        43

        3.4        3.2        4.71        14        16        7.4        108        27

                                                                

500        6.2        6        4.57        48        25        7.16        123        42

        3.2        3.1        4.71        13        13        7.4        108        27

                                                                

475        5.8        5.6        4.58        44        24        7.16        123        42

        3        2.9        4.71        12        12        7.4        103        27

                                                                

450        5.7        5.5        4.59        42        24        7.19        123        39

        2.5        2.4        4.71        11        11        7.4        100        27

                                                                

425        5.5        5.3        4.62        43        23        7.23        121        38

        2.2        2.1        4.71        11        10        7.4        98        27

                                                                

400        5.3        5.1        4.72        42        20        7.41        114        27

        1.8        1.7        4.93        11        10        7.77        94        9

                                                                

375        3        2.9        4.85        42        18        7.62        108        18

        1.2        1.1        4.95        11        10        7.8        94        7

-Same as the ILBs. Same wackiness with pos scores as well.

-Although I'm a bit more interested in dash here.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 09:59 PM

CBs

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        8.4        8.7        4.27        46        21        6.72        136        60

        4.8        4.9        4.45        19        13        7.04        121        45

                                                                

600        8.1        8.4        4.27        46        21        6.73        136        60

        4.7        4.8        4.49        15        12        7.11        118        42

                                                                

575        7.7        8        4.29        46        21        6.74        134        58

        4.4        4.5        4.51        14        12        7.17        115        38

                                                                

550        7.6        7.9        4.39        45        19        6.88        130        55

        3.5        3.6        4.52        10        12        7.2        115        37

                                                                

525        7.2        7.4        4.39        45        18        6.89        131        55

        3.4        3.5        4.52        11        11        7.2        114        37

                                                                

500        6.6        6.8        4.42        45        18        6.95        129        52

        3.4        3.5        4.52        12        8        7.2        114        37

                                                                

475        6.5        6.7        4.42        44        16        6.97        128        52

        3.2        3.3        4.52        9        7        7.2        114        37

                                                                

450        6.5        6.7        4.43        441        16        6.99        128        49

        3        3.1        4.52        9        7        7.2        114        37

                                                                

425        5.9        6.1        4.45        40        15        7.03        127        48

        3        3.1        4.52        9        6        7.2        114        37

                                                                

400        5.3        5.5        4.53        37        15        7.21        119        39

        1.9        1.9        4.7        9        6        7.57        105        14

                                                                

375        3.7        3.8        4.63        39        12        7.42        113        25

        1.7        1.7        4.72        9        6        7.6        102        12

-Masking. Ok, I forgot to mention this with the LBs, but this applies to them as well, paired masks for coverages appear to be Man/End and Zone/ST. Punishing Hitter also seems to be one of those physical high bars. I look for guys with a high Pun and Int bar, or high Pun and one of those mask pairs.

-Agil seems to be one of those scores that can be crappy for a quality guy, but not a stud.

-Bjump is again just return skills, so don't pay much mind.

-I'm partial to the fast guys, but really the guys with the knockout dash scores don't come along that often. And when they do, they're megastud guys at the top of a draft.

-So look for the high punishing guys with strong other data points.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 10:03 PM

Code:

        Grade        Adjst        Dash        Sole        Strg        Agil        BJmp        Pspec

625        7.5        7.1        4.3        53        27        6.82        132        60

        3.7        3.5        4.51        26        17        7.17        118        45

                                                                

600        7.5        7.1        4.3        53        27        6.82        132        60

        3.6        3.4        4.54        23        15        7.25        114        42

                                                                

575        6.9        6.5        4.31        53        27        6.94        130        58

        3.2        3        4.58        18        15        7.32        113        39

                                                                

550        6.7        6.3        4.42        53        27        6.99        127        56

        2.8        2.6        4.59        16        15        7.35        110        37

                                                                

525        6.2        5.8        4.43        53        22        7        125        55

        2.6        2.4        4.59        17        15        7.35        111        37

                                                                

500        5.9        5.6        4.46        53        22        7.08        125        51

        2.4        2.2        4.59        15        12        7.35        110        37

                                                                

475        5.7        5.4        4.47        48        21        7.09        124        50

        2.1        1.9        4.59        14        10        7.35        110        37

                                                                

450        5.6        5.3        4.48        46        21        7.11        124        50

        2.2        2        4.59        12        10        7.35        110        37

                                                                

425        5.3        5        4.5        47        19        7.16        122        49

        1.9        1.8        4.59        12        9        7.35        110        37

                                                                

400        4.9        4.6        4.6        45        19        7.36        115        38

        1.3        1.2        4.79        12        9        7.76        95        15

                                                                

375        2.8        2.6        4.72        44        15        7.61        105        25

        0.9        0.8        4.81        12        9        7.8        94        12

-Same points as the CBs basically.

-Look for the guys who have weights at or below 207. A weight of 191 transfers perfectly to CB. Between 191 and 207 you can usually move a guy at 90% of his ratings and it's usually worth it.

MalcPow

05-11-2009 10:05 PM

So that's it. I hope people find this stuff useful. If you have questions, ask away. I'll be upfront that I'm not around nearly as often as I used to be, but I'll try to be helpful if I can.

Yoda	05-11-2009 11:14 PM

Wow... that's great stuff MalcPow.

It's greatly appreciated.

But, just want to be sure I am reading this correctly.

Using QB's for example- you can have a top QB (625) that's rated in the draft as a 4.4?

3ric	05-12-2009 04:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yoda (Post 2018338)

If I get what MP is doing with this experiment, the only reason there's a QB in the file who's rated at 4.4, is because every player in the file is rated at 625 (is that current or future rating?). In a normal file, that player likely would be 8.5-9.0, I guess. That's relative to the competition.

MalcPow

05-12-2009 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3ric (Post 2018403)

Actually no, but that's what I would have assumed as well. You can see a 100/100 quarterback with a 4.4 grade. The guys on the lower bounds of the Grade/Adj spectrum are almost always combine skippers though. I did a little extra digging with QBs one time, I think the worst 625 QB with combines had a 5.5 Grade.

As another note though, the guys at the edges of these boundaries are pretty rare. The likelihood of getting a 625 across the board QB in a random draft class is pretty low. This study looked at a 1000 guys like that and had one blip at that 4.4 grade and probably a small handful of guys spread out over what was clearly the far tail of the distribution. Keep that in mind as you get dizzy over some QB with a grade in the 4s and some high bars (which I manage to do pretty often).

Celeval

05-12-2009 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3ric (Post 2018403)

I don't think there's any grading relative to the competition there. In that case, it'd be a super-creeper QB with no combines.

gstelmack

05-12-2009 08:50 AM

Thanks for sharing MalcPow. I'll certainly be digesting this.

wade moore

05-12-2009 09:10 AM

Amazing information - thank you MP!

MalcPow

05-12-2009 09:59 AM

Probably worth another note here along the lines of combine skippers being the really low graded guys in the stud buckets. As you move down into the 30/30 range, the top of the Grade spectrum becomes combine skippers. So don't take a no combine guy as a sure sign of being underrated or anything. They simply become good gambles as you get down into the poorer portions of a draft class if they have other good signs.

Draft Dodger

05-12-2009 11:43 AM

amazing stuff

Jughead Spock

05-12-2009 11:46 AM

Is this as to what you can expect once they've signed, or TC, or at their fullest potential?

As a f'rinstance, my 2nd year QB combines looked like this -

29 4.84 13 7.61 110 66

Which would put him between 450 and 550, but for his 66 PosDrill. Came in at 20/48, currently 41/49 3 weeks into season 2. Most likely he's a 500, with just a one-point variance on the PosDrill?

MalcPow

05-12-2009 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jughead Spock (Post 2018796)

At their fullest potential. And the "one point variance in the PosDrill" would be a big concern for me when the data seems to imply there's a pretty hard boundary at 67/68 for quality guys. But hey, this stuff is mostly just food for thought. I wouldn't go crazy over miniscule differences at the margins. But I also wouldn't expect your guy to creep to 80/80 or anything.

Jughead Spock

05-12-2009 12:10 PM

yeah, just throwing him out for discussion. There's also the matter of volatility (his is 65), so his TC this year (+7/+6) might be throwing everything out of whack. But the 66 PD was odd.

MalcPow

05-12-2009 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack (Post 2018585)

Thanks for sharing MalcPow. I'll certainly be digesting this.

Oh, and if there's some way to incorporate this information into Analyzer... um, I would like you a lot. :D

gstelmack

05-12-2009 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MalcPow (Post 2018871)

Oh, and if there's some way to incorporate this information into Analyzer... um, I would like you a lot. :D

Well, one way would be to use your numbers and give a range of possible ratings (like 450-550 or something). Another is marking thresholds on the combines.

I'm not real happy right now with the values used by Analyzer for average / standard deviation to generates scores and blue/green markers. I think I need to separate the number for evaluation from the highlighted values. I switched from calced average/stddev to something based on red/blue/black/green bar ranges which works better for highlighting but worse for calcs and I need to re-evaluate that. These numbers may fit into that.

I may also be able to mark masked guys based on the bar info you provide above.

I'm always open to detailed suggestions on what to do with new data...

flere-imsaho

05-12-2009 02:34 PM

Wow. This is incredible stuff. :D

MIJB#19

05-12-2009 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MalcPow (Post 2018230)

-Look at Big Play. This will be even more important with WRs, but a nice Big Play bar on a tight end is both fairly rare and a good sign. As with all this stuff, use it as a way to confirm the other things you're seeing.

It's rare because the game seems to tone down the Big-Play skill by roughly 20-25 rating points in game.

Just like what is mentioned with LBs and the M2M and Zone defense skills.

MalcPow

05-12-2009 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MIJB#19 (Post 2019066)

It's rare because the game seems to tone down the Big-Play skill by roughly 20-25 rating points in game.

Just like what is mentioned with LBs and the M2M and Zone defense skills.

Yep, nice being a relative thing here. An actual drafted TE with a Big Play greater than 60 is worth looking at as somebody pretty intriguing. You'll see the occasional absurd guy with a 4.5something dash get a very high Big Play bar (and the initial roster TEs have a much higher average Big Play bar than a mature universe of drafted players will have), but you shouldn't expect to see maxed Big Play bars on your potential TE draftees.

cuervo72

05-12-2009 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MalcPow (Post 2019140)

For reference: fof-IHOF.com : Ratings Search

(oh hey look - the highest 2nd year guy is with Tucker ;) )

Completely with you on noodle-armed QB. Though even with this info, I don't know what to make of Heath Day, unless his drill and jump should have been signs.

cyril

05-12-2009 06:40 PM

noob question: what are "masked pairs"?

MalcPow

05-12-2009 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyril (Post 2019213)

noob question: what are "masked pairs"?

Not really a noob question, it's basically something I'm using for the first time in this thread. If I describe a pair of bars as a masked pair, like medium passing and timing, it essentially means they move together in masking situations. That can mean they're both lower than they should be (a sign when all other indicators point to the high bars being accurate), or it can mean that they are high together when all other bars other than some of the physical non-masked bars are low (and other indicators seem to imply the player might be pretty good).

In many cases you will see patterns in how these bar pairs move together, that's all it's meant to capture. Using other information you can guess at whether it means much, but you should keep an eye out for the patterns.

rjp7424

05-12-2009 11:32 PM

-Masking: I'll note this with WRs/TEs as well, but it seems the mask pairs for receving skills are GD/End and RR/SS.
what does SS stand for?

cyril

05-13-2009 02:04 AM

what's the implication once you think you've discovered a masked pair?

a) it means other attributes are probably masked too.
b) it means other attributes are probably not masked since only a few attributes could be masked.
c) there's no correlationship between a masked pair and whether other attributes are masked or not.
d) none of the above, pls explain?

also, do masked pairs have to have very similiar values to be considered as such? ie. two bars both pointing at 80% range is a masked pair, whereas one bar at 90% and one at 70% is not?

MalcPow

05-13-2009 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjp7424 (Post 2019747)

-Masking: I'll note this with WRs/TEs as well, but it seems the mask pairs for receving skills are GD/End and RR/SS.
what does SS stand for?

Sorry, should be ST for Special Teams.

MalcPow

05-13-2009 06:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyril (Post 2019844)

It most often means that pair of bars will be wildly out of line with the other bars. Once you spot that, look to the combine data to take a guess at whether it means the player looks better or worse than you'd expect from the majority of his bars (which will quite often be distributed pretty evenly).

This isn't some perfect solution for every guy. It's most effective at helping you discover the solid number of draftees that have a very obvious bar pattern linked to these masked pairs. The blue bars can be pretty imprecise at times, so don't get caught up on them being exact just look for the general pattern.

nickelback

05-13-2009 10:18 AM

Probably a stupid question but I'll ask anyway. What happens when you have a player with combines that fall in say the 600 type player range but two of them fall in like the 425-450 range. Would you want to stay away from this type of player despite four other strong combines?

MalcPow

05-13-2009 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nickelback (Post 2020177)

It depends. If it were a WR and the two low combines were Sole and BJump, I wouldn't care that much. If the two low ones were Dash and Pos, I'd care a lot.

All of this is meant to be food for thought to help you make "better" decisions. Very little here is going to offer you absolute certainty on anything. Take it as greater context for how you look at these scores. I know I would've assumed a 4.45 was a really great 40 time for a WR before looking at this stuff (as really there aren't more than a few guys better than that in most draft classes), but this data gives me a better sense of where that fits. It could be great, it could be pretty pedestrian, and I need to really look at other things. A 4.31 though? Now I know that's damn fast and if a guy has solid other combines I "know" I'm looking at a very good player.

I don't want to over or understate the value of this stuff. With some guys it is going to help you a ton. With many others it's just going to be another indicator.

Subby

05-13-2009 12:02 PM

I guess this makes up for all of the cheeting you have done.

MalcPow

05-13-2009 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Subby (Post 2020371)

I guess this makes up for all of the cheeting you have done.

Does this mean we can me a masked pair again?

RedKingGold

05-13-2009 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MalcPow (Post 2020402)

Does this mean we can me a masked pair again?

ONLY IF YOU LEARN HOW TO POST WITHOUT TPYOS!

TheMeat

05-17-2009 04:31 PM

This is super-super awesome, thanks MP. I'm at that stage where I'm trying to really get into analyzing rookies, needless to say this is vital in the FOWL, and just started using draft analyzer a couple months back. This is a very nice compendium of knowledge regarding combine scores. Top notch.

Most interestingly to me it explains some masking details that I had noticed but now make more sense like the fact that almost every draft class will hold one or more LB with a great AGL combine but seemingly 0 Rush Def, I've known for awhile that these guys are studs but now I can see how it applies to other scores/positions.

It makes me think of my RB Scottie Sturm in the PFL, I drafted him just because he looked odd, had full bars in Breakaway and Outside Speed but rock bottom in others. He has climbed about 15 points so far and I feel so smart for scooping him up in the third round.

Ben E Lou

05-20-2009 09:35 AM

For those who don't understand what a "masked pair" means (I've always used the term "bar signature," but "masked pair" is more precise,) here's a perfect example. Behold, CB Alonzo Cappe in FOWL. First, his reds and blues:

...and the bars. Note the Zone/ST pair.

Now in this particular case, it's obvious from his combines that he's a stud, without MP's excellent data. But it's such a big mask here that it was worth noting.

Chubby

05-20-2009 11:45 AM

I'll let you know tomorrow how useful this was ;)

Sef0r

05-20-2009 03:53 PM

Guess I will be targetting CB Alonzo in FOWL then...lets see, 3 years for $70 mil? I think that will land him.

nickelback

05-21-2009 09:13 PM

So is the 625-375 for each rating or is it for the overall player rating?

TheMeat

05-22-2009 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sef0r (Post 2028832)

Guess I will be targetting CB Alonzo in FOWL then...lets see, 3 years for $70 mil? I think that will land him.

Well I got him for 3 yrs at the bargain price of 5mil per season, so we'll see. Unless this is some big joke at my expense I'll be very happy with that price.

:withstupid:

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:17 AM.

Page 1 of 4

Show 100 post(s) from this thread on one page