Dola, particularly one around that time after Simbo went up 6-4.

The 'you' in that being Mau.

oh i sent mine in.

I think I've got all mau's posts here. I don't know his style, but really I'm not seeing anything here (granted it is with 20/20 hindsight) that gives me any kind of wolfiness.

Fair enough, looking back at it all I don't get it either. That was my impression at the time the deadline was approaching though and my time was being split between the thread and getting kids ready for bed, so my concentration wasn't ideal.

OK, have to get this in and then out for the day. This is a vote of respect.

VOTE LATHUM

His placement in that run scares me the most. Good luck non-wolves!

What scares me about Lathum is that he mentioned watching for odd runs on certain people, right before he started the odd run on Mau.

My bad, Lathum said that thing about late day ties being very telling after he switched his vote to Mau. Murrayyyy was sort of the first, then Lathum followed suit.

Well crap. I had it narrowed down to sal or lathum because of their late votes on mau. Fifty fifty shot of being right.

vote sal

man i dont know who to vote for

Not really buying Lathum or sal to be honest. If you think there was a wolf that they were trying to protect in Simbo, that's probably who you ought to be voting for (strongly don't think Danny and Lathum for example would be wolf partners the way Lathum tried to drive votes to him, maybe you could make a case for Danny+sal though). There would be little other reason for a wolf sal / Lathum to try and make a vote they know will look damning when the lynch results are revealed when they can stay more out of the limelight.

My motivation was creating a three way tie to see where the late votes would go. I figure if one of those three was the wolf then the other wolves would switch out to save a wolf.

Classic situation of damned if you do or don't. If I leave my vote on Danny then I'll be looked at later in the game as having a throw away vote D1.

My impression of D1 voting in the wolves arent going to move their votes unless they are desperate to save a wolf. Anyone who knows me knows I would rather let one of my own die as a wolf than out myself.

That being said, you want to learn about the late Mau voters the best way is to lynch Simbo. If he is a wolf , then OK, the late votes on Mau look bad, if he is a villager the late voters on Mau look better since wolves really have no incentive to move late from one villager to another.

The worst thing to do is just start abritrarly voting the late Mau voters because they moved late, you learn the least in that scenerio.

the thing is if they are experienced wolves they wont. They will let him hang as opposed to making it easy to connect the dots later in the game

The part of the voting that interests me is when we went from a bunch tied with 1 to three tied with 2, and then the three with 2 votes each were brought up to 3-3-3. If there was a wolf among the people with one vote each, it's possible the candidates were nudged up to protect their wolf buddy from becoming a candidate. Have to go back and look at that sequence.

Why the hell is Chubby so quiet?

i can see your point, but we wernt even sure at that time how eliminations worked

Friday work 6am-6pm est. Just got on phone in bathroom to send in fight orders. (Shhhh)

Because he knows im going to bring the pain during the fight! hes just scared sh*tless at the Barbarians wrath!

It appears that the GODS... Are in the corner of The Ultimate Warrior... When I was blindsided by THE COWARD SHAWN MICHAELS.. *Snort* The GODS ABOVE REACHED DOWN WITH THEIR HANDS AND ALTERED DESTINY!!! Speaking with a fist forged in the shadows of the great mountainous regions of PARTS UNKNOWN.. I feel their power now, coursing... BURSTING... Through my veins and I know there will be.. much.. more.. blood yet to be shed. YOU ARE NEXT, RICK RUUUUDE.... *Snort* To feel the POWER of the Ultimate Warrior...

Last night my wife and I were getting intimate, and we were doing a little role playing. It was going well until I superfly skookad her from the dresser.

So far I don't see much behind the "simbo is a wolf" theory, at least late in the day. JAG and Lathum were big movers there, and no way they do that as a wolf pairing with Simbo.

Looking back further now. This vote is the one that stands out to me so far. Fairly late in the day, after 8 EST I think, bullet moves from one of the top votegetters to Danny who had only 1 or 2 votes. Weird.

I don't think they both are wolves. I think one of them is a wolf though so its fifty fifty to me. Sal was the one I could see being involved in the most scenarios. Simbo was also on my short list. Who knows. Maybe ill change to him later when I get to a computer. Studying this on my phone is tough. Damn you samsung!!!

Zinto's vote seemed like he was hedging his bets. He unvoted when it was something like 4-4-4-3 and then waited until someone else bumped Simbo up to jump on there. If we had a lot of villagers there, seems like a wolf move to get on a bandwagon rather than sticking their neck out.

And lastly, saldana makes his move after I voice my concern about Simbo not being around for a reveal, which again is a safe spot for a wolf to move and make a vote that they can then say, 'well people were worried about simbo notbeing around'.

That's all I've got. I'm not sure we've got much out of this vote until we learn a few more allegiances.

that makes good sense,


Vote Simbo

and Autumn if you wernt my tag team partner and did some suspicious stuff id be voting for you right now.

woops, i messed up my vote above

unvote Simbo

vote Zinto

i was curious about him earlier being very inactive, this reason is as good as any right now to suspect him

I have no idea what the vote count is. Monday, if I"m all better by then, I'm going to start keeping vote counts!

Do you mean I have done suspicious stuff, or you'll vote for me if I do?

Interesting statement.

Why are you sure you will be alive on Monday?

Maybe this will help?

D2:

2 saldana: murrayyyyy (410), Julio (425)
1 DT: Lathum (389)
1 Chubby: Simbo (392)
1 path12: ntn (395)
1 Lathum: path12 (407)
1 Zinto: bullet (429)

no you havnt really. i meant if you did do any plus that accusation i would be compelled to vote for you. im not nearly as good at this game as others, so im a little simple in my voting

1 DaddyTorgo - Lathum (389)
1 Chubby - Simbo Klice (392)
1 path12 - ntndeacon (395)
1 Lathum - path12 (407)
2 saldana - murrayyyyy (410), Julio Riddols (425)
1 Zinto - bulletsponge (429)

Ha. Thanks, JAG.

Post numbers aren't right, but from yesterday.

2 Suicane: Simbo (200), Danny (110)
6 Simbo: ntn (111), PackerFanatic (115), britrock88 (154), Chubby (160), mauchow (162), bullet (232)
8 mauchow: Julio (142), Autumn (166), DaddyTorgo (170), murrayyyyy (229), JAG (112), Lathum (104), Zinto (287), saldana (116
2 Danny: Suicane (186), Path12 (192)

(And thanks, suicane, for putting this together. And sal, for fixing your vote.)

Wish I had more time to do the Narcanalysis.

I suppose people voting for saldana today don't like him trying to seal the lynch. Though neither of murrayyyyy or Julio were in the last game with 3 tied lynches. I'll give them a pass for it.

Of the other 5 guys getting votes, 3 of them had their vote on mau yesterday. Is this the best approach? We have 2 confirmed villagers on Simbo, who I think is the likeliest candidate for a wolf or two to have hidden on. And the odds are 1/4 as opposed to 1/8.

That said, I'll add some traction behind today's single candidate who is in that camp.

Vote Chubby

I actually really like this bit of analysis.

Maybe the wolves are behind pushing us towards the 1/8, or jumped into that early.

Not saying we should "second-level" it today, but something to keep in mind for later as a vote history is built in the game.

Hahah

It was more like 4-4-4-3-2 when I unvoted Sal who only had 2 votes and it was around 9:10ish but I was not going to vote for Danny there because Danny is someone I never vote for on day one. I wasn't going to vote for Suicane because I don't think he has played in a game recently so voting him out day one is no fun. So it was down to Mau or Simbo and I couldn't decide because it was day one and such.

Just for people to see my mindset going into voting there.

So to restate, my premise is that we appeared to go to 3-3-3 quickly yesterday and I think it may be because a wolf wanted to drive the vote away from a wolf who had a single vote (seeing as statistically you'd expect we had a wolf on the block with 9 people getting votes).




So the three people who put down third votes here are bulletsponge, britrock88, and Zinto. The people at the time with one vote (not counting the revealed villagers) are Danny, path12, murrayyyyy, and britrock88 again. Since britrock happens to be on both lists, I'll call him the lucky winner and go back there again (he's getting a hunka hunka burnin love from The Honky Tonk Man):

Vote britrock88

Nice logic. Of course I just liked britrock's logic too...lol

for those that are looking at me because i put the proverbial nail in the Hulkster's coffin yesterday, if you play enough of these games with me, you will learn that I abhor ties...entire days have been spent arguing over whether or not they are good for the village...i dont believe that they are.

the last game we played, we had 3 ties in the first 4 days...there were all kinds of shenanigans at the deadline, and only by luck of the tie mechanic did we pull out a win...no way was i letting the vote stay at an interval that could be tied.

we need vote history...thats how the village wins...ties dont help that as much as lynches do.

Suicane with the random attack on me...hmmm.