I'm not convinced but here's one possible answer.

Coronavirus: How the world rushed to panic buy toilet paper - Business Insider

Ah yes I agree. Some people acting like it is end of the world stuff is ridiculous.

Well not sure why they saying 100k and tha5 is coming from head of the health there. I guess we won’t know since Trump does not want the real number exposed.

I did buy an extra 1,000 rounds of Ammo earlier today.
Partly because my son is coming home this weekend with 2 college friends and wants to shoot and partly because ...it’s the only guaranteed way to get tp and hand sanitizer hahah

Just buy a bidet. Problem solved

I admittedly did panic upon reading this earlier. You think It's safe to assume they overestimated by a lot?

My son is coming home too and may be bringing his roommate from the Netherlands. I was actually thinking about offering to take son & roommate shooting. Assuming it would be the first time for the roommate and was wondering if I should get permission from parents first :)

How's ammo availability & prices? Supply hard to find like n95, hand sanitizers and TP?

i mean it's common sense that the fact that they didn't even know the virus was here until a nursing home was full of patients and now suddenly there are cases across the country....that a TON more people have it than they know.

At least...i dunno what they aren't telling us. Perhaps they know that the 5 known cases have already been traveling around a lot.

Reading the article they are using math to calculate the spread. But none of that is a guarantee because you don't know how much contact has been involved. But the fact that they said something...makes me think they know something

On the other hand when has someone that made a statement to the news known anything

If you are going to let someone elses kid shoot a gun you should 100% get the parents permission.

I don't know if I really believe this but the thought has occurred to me that government doesn't want widespread testing because government knows the numbers of infected is huge.

Then the other side of my brain asks why would they want to hide this intentionally because it's going to come out sooner or later anyway.

In 2018-2019, about 35.5 million infected by Flu. The 100K may be premature now but don't think its unreasonable when all is said and done.

The number of confirmed cases is meaningless. The US has no real testing going on.

South Korea has tested over 200,000 people. That's like 0.3% of their population. 4% of those tests have come back positive. They've been aggressive at quarantining and found the epicenter and did a good job shutting it down.

I'm not sure why this is shocking. We know it transmits easier than influenza. And 5-20% of Americans come down with that each year. There's no reason to believe that we won't topple that number considering there is no vaccine.

The roommate is 21 or 22. I'm open to it but I wasn't sure it was really needed.

Still young enough to ask permission IMO.

At the very least float the idea out there to get a feeler.

#1 I don’t know . I have no direct knowledge and I don’t know how anyone does.
#2 just think about the implications to get to 100k. Using my math above if all 5 each infected 3 people. And all 15 of those people each infected 3 people then all 45 of those people each infected 3 people... 9 times over gets you to 100k. If one of the first folks only infects 1 then we got two more levels to go through. Of course if he infects 20 then it’s shorter. But this incubation /symptom/ possible positive cycle makes it unlikely based on current known info that we are on generation 9 in Ohio.
#3 the other side of the argument , if there are 100,000 infected and bodies aren’t piling up in the street ...then the mortality rate is lower than feared.

Also have you seen the Iran digging mass graves headlines?
Read deeper, in a current cemetery they have identified a 100 yard trench 5’ deep.
So if they stack 6’ tall folks head to toe no casket no space between each that’s 50 people. Tragic for sure but not 10s of thousands of bodies like the language imagery creates.

I’m simply not worried about it.

It’s either not that bad and no need to worry. Or it’s truly a plague and it’s going to wipe us out and I can’t do a damn thing about it so why worry.

I’ll just stay down on the farm, go out a bit less... and see what happens.

I am sure not getting sued is high on the priority list but I think it is as simple as they had no plan for dealing with this virus. The easiest thing to do is close the school and send the kids home until it goes away. Or until the they have to come up with a plan.

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated | medRxiv

Not that we need anything else to keep us up at night, but one of the best virus projecting labs in the country had this: "the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6"


SI

Catching a little Hannity. Are the liberals really calling racism for calling this the Wuhan Corona Virus?

Please tell me we are not politicizing this.

Going off of what some of the earlier models estimate, we should be at a 10-20x multiplier of what we're reporting now. That means we're probably looking at 30Kish cases in the US right now. Like that the Houston area has like "13 confirmed cases". Sure, because we're not testing anyone. but if you told me the number was in hundreds (say, 13x20), I'd buy it.



Open Letter 1 on COVID-19

Unfortunately, exponential growth is a real bitch. Assume about a 30% increase in cases per day (i.e. doubling every 3 days), those numbers get really bad really fast. That puts us at 2-5M cases by the first Friday of April. Hopefully the social distancing will put a dent in some of that because already having infected 1 of 100 people in such a short span is just staggering.


SI

I was really glad you were back until now

Trudeau's wife has just tested positive for it.

I got the R2 from Gupta on TV.

PGA Tour cancels its events for the next three weeks even though the first round of The Players Championship had been played.

PilotMan got on me about being gone more than 5 years and still being in the top 10 in posts so I thought this was as good a time as any to reconnect with old friends.

It's been a busy 5+ years. I moved back to Houston not long before leaving and that's had its plusses and minuses but is a net positive. The Royals won the World Series. That was pretty awesome.

I originally walked away because I knew I had to cut some things from my life to rebalance. We were gearing up for the arrival of my kid, who is now 4 1/2 (that half is important at his age). And, boy, that does a number on one's life.

But I'm happy to be back. I've missed you guys (and gals). I only wish it was under better circumstances.

SI

Yes I agree it is good to see you back.

That is assuming that there are only 5 people infected in Ohio which there surely aren’t.

Understood which is where R0 and R2 get conflated and murky.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...spread/605632/

Vs
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...xqYXfu21GLVhb_

I agree completely. But there is a grand canyon between suggesting 100,00 cases today in Ohio alone vs 2m nationwide in 3 weeks.

100,000 in Ohio today at growth rates estimated, would put this beyond 500 milliion by the april date.

Just for perspective .

And
Btw
F Trump for politicizing this and F Pelosi for trying to leverage this for abortion funding.
Can we fire them all?

After the acceleration in the last two days I'm not so sure... Basically all sports & now schools are being shut down within 48 hours despite not a lot of confirmed deaths. I think there will be a problem when people realize how severe the societal & economic effects of our currently voluntary choices are, but the response by private organizations in the last 48 hours has exceeded my expectations.
I'm more on the lacrosse side, but yeah... I get pro leagues shutting down with the travel & large crowds, but how long are we going to eliminate youth & HS sports that are played outside in front of very few fans by kids with almost no risk of getting sick from this? You tell me 2 weeks & we'll have a vaccine, cool! But if it's obviously only a delaying tactic where does the pendulum swing back to "umm, I don't want my kid inside my house all day"?
Yes. Or alternatively, if they didn't... I'm actually on the side that this is much more widespread than reported (because we can't test properly), but 100k in one state seems wildly past anything we've seen from actual testing, very irresponsible for a government health official to state, and if true then past the point where quarantines/social limiting matters.

(Northern) Italy seems to be giving is the worst case developed world scenario, South Korea seems to be demonstrating a best case response, and I still think in the end we'll be in the middle of those two, closer to the SK side. Considering that SK has done the best job testing people, is not hiding any numbers, and is reporting what, 60? deaths I think we'll need to have a real conversation in two weeks or so about what level of economic and societal pain (and how long) we want to voluntarily choose.

A HS friend and hard-core Trumper that's now a pharmacist posted a video on Facebook of Dr. Drew complaining that the media is overhyping the virus and that it's not that dangerous.

A lot of Trumpers are going to get sick just so that Donald's ego isn't burst.

Here's a sobering graphic from Italy:



Italy Coronavirus: 15,113 Cases and 1,016 Deaths - Worldometer

So, if Rudy Gobert doesn’t get the virus yesterday, do we still have all sports playing today? I think we do. I’m not saying it’s wrong either, it’s just crazy if you think about it.

Italy is almost an inverse pyramid, so you would expect a higher mortality rate than other younger countries.

I don't know if it's as simple as that (and it seems mostly coming out of one region so far), but yeah can we please identify why Italy's situation is this much worse before assuming it *will* happen here?

On the flip side, Trump is tweeting about how nice the Japanese Olympic construction is & how much Joe Biden messed up during the swine flu outbreak that killed 12,000 Americans... Please tell me why we should cancel everything for weeks & assume the government will actually find a solution in that time? If it's just "delay the spread" the disease will still be there in 7/14/30 days unless there is intensive testing & quarantining, and people will start asking why we're going through the voluntary hardships...

It buys us time, which may allow us to figure out what we need to address somethings. Also, often as a virus spreads among a population the morbidity rate goes down since it is not beneficial for a virus to kill its host.

Also, for the record, our population pyramid is tower like, so we may have a lot of deaths due to sheer size of the country, but I would expect our death rate to be lower.

From a former YL kid, 37 years old. Attorney. Kidney transplant maybe 6-9 months ago. Lives in the Savannah area. This was posted a few minutes ago. Several things in this jibe with what my pulmonologist friend indicated to us on Sunday. Funny how all of these anecdotes are so similar. It's almost as if we're seeing a pattern...

I asked this too and the real answer is resources.

If we slow the spread even a little bit across the country we can avoid the issue italy is seeing where dr's have to choose who gets a ventilator and who doesn't and dies.

We have too few beds and ventilators to manage a massive short term peak, where as if we start segregating everyone apart NOW, we can flatten the curve and stay ahead of the resource battle.

Without the beds and ventilators available the death rate triples or quadruples.

With an infectious rate of 1.5-3.5 we cannot afford to let this thing get ahead of us. So as much as the cancellations and the travel bans and all that stuff is a pain in the ass and seems like overkill, its not, its just there to help us stay afloat so we can give the best possible treatment to every single patient that comes down with covid-19.

Yup, pretty much this. It buys time, allows for at least some of the needful steps to be taken (administration of hospital beds, maybe bringing some more , getting a reliable test in place and the infrastructure to support it, working on procedures and best practices, etc...). There's a good graph going around that shows the effects of flattening the impact on the health system vs having the peak hit mostly at once.

I do wonder if this is finally the straw that breaks the camels back in terms of an honest debate about whether you can truly run a national health system for profit. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but if some of the decisions and fuck ups made so far and the impacts we'll be seeing over the next month and beyond don't make everyone stop and pause I'm not sure anything ever will.

I have to say even though I lean on the side this will be really bad, that's a misleading graphic. It really should have included the other one which the ongoing cases and the # of people who are critical vs in a mild condition. Presumably the vast majority if not all of those 11,686 in mild condition are going to survive, they are just symptomatic right now.

And yeah, 1000 deaths is nothing to sneeze at, but it's obviously nowhere near a 45% mortality rate that graphic suggests. If you die from this you presumably die rather quickly whereas the recovery is at least 14 days.

EDIT - also worth noting that the worldwide mild vs serious/critical % on ongoing cases (90/10) from that site is actually slightly worse than Italy (91/9), so I imagine that's another sign that the overall stats from Italy will normalize, and it's actually a pretty compelling argument for quarantining and avoiding large gatherings here - to avoid the huge peak that overwhelmed hospitals in Italy that led to so many deaths once the overall numbers got serious.

also: they consider MILD to be "needs supplemental oxygen" in a lot of these

But from the available evidence either this disease is already out of the bottle (the Ohio 100k estimate) in which case it has a lower mortality rate on the spectrum, or it seems like we'll only run out of hospital beds if people who have a very low mortality rate start taking them up.

And I'm good with a short term ban if I had any confidence there was a long term solution, but I don't even think there is a good plan in place let alone a solution.

It seems like we're going to voluntarily go into a recession, shut down schools for 14-30 days etc, and my question is what happens when that initial period is over & Coronavirus is clearly still not contained, but also a very low mortality threat to anyone under 50? (Especially if our President & leadership is still focused on hiding cases instead of fixing it.)

Although Trump is a misogynistic megalomaniac, I do acknowledge credit where credit is due. I thought his January 31 directive to restrict travel from China (the source of the infection) was prudent, but he was accused by Pelosi and Biden as being "xenophobic". With that being said, I think that Trump's overall handling of the situation has been dismal. Opportunists from both parties are trying to score points with this crisis. I'm glad that I changed my registration to Libertarian in 2008.

This is really sobering.

Notes from UCSF Expert panel - March 10

Must be a whole lot of undetected cases in the U.S. judging by your death rates. Trump is delusional with his flight ban. Economy destruction for what? Based on death rates only France, Germany and Italy is worse off. Ban those countries by all means.

Trump is being exposed at this point for down playing cases. Number of deaths is the true indicator. Up to this point he performed better than I expected (very low expectations). Going forward it is pretty clear you guys can't trust a word he says.

These findings make no logical sense.

China and SK have been hard but are now are coming through it. Yes it hit hard but not even 1% of the population let alone 40-70%. What are we missing here?

3200 deaths in China. Estimating 320,000 infected. Population 1.38 billion.

On one hand there is complete denial on the other it appears huge exaggeration?

This seems like long term estimates. Like over 18 months. Its not over in China by any means.

There is a TON of misleading commentary out there. The thing I've noted from a couple different sources (Merkel's speech to Germany being the most recent) is that we're looking at something in the range of 70% total infection rate BEFORE this ends. And I'm using this as a worst case scenario. take that as pessimistic or optimistic, your choice.

Getting ahead of that isn't just an option while we wait for a plan of action, its a requirement if the death rate isn't going to leap logarithmicly at that point.

Buying time is the first best action we can take, time to build up supplies, time to prepare triage and treatment centers on a large scale and time, perhaps, for a vaccine to be discovered.

Even if we're looking at a minimal 1% casualty rate, this country alone is looking at a possible number just under 3 MILLION dead.

We have to slow this down if we're even going to have a chance. The infrastructure stress alone could destroy normal society as we've grown up knowing it. IF I have a heart attack during the peak I could be looking at a death notice instead of a week in the hospital and a quick surgery beacause of the heavy load already on the services.

Okay makes sense. Much depends on a vaccine and how accessible it is for everyone I imagine. Sounds like a worse case scenario to me.

I am reading this site. Reports China have it well in hand for the moment.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 134,930 Cases and 4,990 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Planning to move my mom (70, COPD + heart disease, on oxygen) from my house to assisted living on Monday. Starting to wonder if that is a bad idea right now.

Just can't see it. Economic meltdown quite possibly. But we will go all Italy on them before that happens. Shut everything and stay home for a month ftw.

Not to say it won't be bad, but not THAT bad. We will see.

I'm not in medicine or public policy, but the whole response is weird to me. Either we are over reacting or not reacting enough.

If schools are closing, why aren't they closing until next week? Why not immediately? Is this all just CYA behavior? A lot of things feel like that but then you see the situation in Italy and wonder why we aren't be more aggressive in our response. Overall it just leads to a bunch of confusion.