I've been wondering what the hospitalization rate was and I just saw 16%, with at least 4% in ICU. That's an enormous problem for our medical system.

Thanks, nice tracker graphic.

Think I saw something similar in a zombie movie.

I've always wanted to try the board game "Pandemic". I hear it's pretty good.

There was some payment app years ago that called themselves Isis right before.

Hey, I've played Plague Inc, and I can tell you from experience, that this virus is nowhere near strong enough to kill off the planet. It's a weak ass joke in comparison to some that I've developed.

I remember that!

Pre-Isis Isis, Isis was an Egyptian babe.

Yes it is. I love mutating those viruses, especially the stuff that affects the brain.

Look its the beginning. This thing learns that its not strong enough to survive and mutates. Its only a matter of time.

There's a Pandemic board game adaptation on Steam. There's also a Plague Inc on Steam.

May have to check them out if we are quarantined.

The Atlantic did a fine job -- notable for the quick turnaround -- on a piece debunking this particular steaming pile of "news"

edit: I ain't mad at you for sharing it, my anger is reserved for the lazy-ass oh-my-lets-live-on-panic-clicks mentality of virtually every "news" organization on the planet these days

Good article. Thanks.

Well dang, I've gone and gotten sick just in time for the weekend.

Nice knowing you all.

Hope you get better. I've been told a nice stroll in the city does wonders for you.

And people love it it when you cough and sneeze on them. I understand that is a friendly form of greeting in urban areas.

Suspected case a couple towns over from me.

First US death. Trump now stopping travel to Italy and S Korea is certainly needed but too little too late. It appears there are thousands of cases across all of the country now. Take your vitamins all.

But I was told he stopped flights days ago?

I’m super stoked about flying to Cali for work on Tuesday.

Wife and I have a trip planned for a friends 50th birthday to Cancun March 21-28th. Grown ups only. We have only paid the deposit of a few hundred dollars up to this point. The balance, a few grand is due next Saturday. We finally breached the topic if we should seriously consider cancelling.

I'm not worried about getting sick, far more worried about not being able to get back in to the US.

One of my closest friends flew to San Diego today, she’s the photographer for a 5000 person convention at the San Diego Convention Center for the next few days. Really bad timing with that one.

Tilburg (case 1) yes
Amsterdam (case 2) longer than an hour
Delft (case 3) 15 minutes or so

Time to hog fruit and vegetables?

We have a trip to Northern Europe scheduled for April - hoping things are stable enough that flights aren't cancelled, but otherwise, hoping that tourist levels are low with people cancelling plans now and over the next few weeks. Traveling to Istanbul while they were invading Syria made a few acquaintances question our choice, but, security was high, crowds were low, people were happy we were there, the trip was spectacular. Also hoping Disneyland crowds are lower when we're there next month. That's kind of my mindset, making the best of whatever the situation is.

Travel disruptions are a concern but I'll just have backup systems in place. Bringing important work with me, making sure I have a plan for the dogs. It's easier without kids at home. All travel carries some risk, I try not to over-exaggerate it and just take whatever logical steps I can to mitigate all risks, and also try to take advantage of others' different risk assessments by finding deals, beating the crowds, etc.

I saw that too. Do you know what it is for the flu?

I know that the mortality rate right now is 10 times the flu.

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I'm supposed to teach in Ireland for the month of July and GT is starting to cancel summer programs. Don't want to have to entertain kids in 95 degree ATL weather for a month.

We haven't canceled summer study abroad yet, but the Spring Break programs were killed yesterday.

Curious which summer programs are cancelled. Going to Metz for a summer was one of my favorite things about Tech.

Have a trip planned to Hawaii in early April. wife just asked same question especially with number of Asian tourists.

Yep. We have a trip slated there as well. Still holding out hope this clears up by then.

It would really suck to live in a nursing home facility with an outbreak.

https://apnews.com/f175d89567a26d59cab27725c9e8a0d7

The after pic is as of Feb 25. This would imply Chinese factories aren't ramped up yet which is no surprise (but would like to see a later pic) and I bet internet usage has spiked.

Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown - BBC News

Right now, I believe just the China one, with ones in Japan and South Korea seemingly questionable. Hopefully it won't spread to Ireland, but they've had a case or two and you never know.

Hey everyone, I think I found the answer to combat pollutants and global warming...




Or maybe it was Mother Nature....I've heard she's a real bitch.

It's in the Seattle area now :(

From Howard Forman:

“People have asked about case fatality rate. Everyone quotes "2%." We do NOT KNOW, with reliability. I believe it will be lower than 2%. In this report, data suggests it is coming closer to 0.7% w/newer cases in China. ”. https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf

Best guess is then 7x mortality rate than flu

An assisted living facility is the last place you’d want an outbreak of this virus.

The CDC looks shockingly inept so far. Just off the top of my head there's the bad test, then very few tests, refusal or inability to make American protocols available to doctors, and now we learn that a patient in TX was released by the CDC who then later returned and tested positive.

Congress should quickly dive in to see what's wrong at CDC.

Probably the hundreds of open positions, or being only allowed to discuss and study what the admin says is cool.

GOP playbook. Cripple and mismanage the government, then run on the platform that the government sucks.

I just wish it wasn't in the context of a pandemic this time.

Futures up 230 and talk on bloomberg about possible 50 basis point cut. China government takes over big conglomerate Hainan. More fun to come this week I'm sure.

I am starting to wonder if it's not already fairly widespread in the US and we're not noticing because it looks like the flu.

Costco was a mad house yesterday as people appeared to be panic-shopping. The store was sold out of water, toilet paper, and paper towels.

A friend who lives in the town where the virus hit in Oregon went to Costco. Said the lines were literally to the back of the store.

I was thinking the same thing. Wondering the same about China and maybe the asymptomatic or low symptom just not being figured into the 2%. Of course people with a much higher pay grade at the CDC etc have probably considered these things as well. I think it is important to note the CDC's advice vs the mass media. Not sure much more than limit exposure, wash hands, etc have come from them. The mass media is all over 2 deaths, Captain Trips has arrived!

It's definitely more widespread than we know given that there's community spread. We haven't tested many people so far, and when we start testing like SK or Italy we're going to find a lot more cases.

I'm left with the question, just how serious is this?

Is this just another illness like the flu? More serious than the flu?

Should we be freaking out about it?

Is the media hyping it more than it should be?

I have a feeling that unless this thing wipes out large numbers of the world's population, we'll never get a real sense of what this thing is. You won't get the truth from any where.

Being in fairly close proximity to the Washington breakouts, some people around here suspect they've already had it - based on the descriptions of mild cases having a cough and shortness of breath rather than the more varied typical flu symptoms.

If you are older and have pre-existing conditions that make you vulnerable (there's a list somewhere), pretty serious. Not end of the world though.


For right now, more serious than the flu. Mortality rates and infection rates seem higher. This is based on China data right now so I suspect the %s will go down. (or higher, Iran seems to have higher %s but who knows)

For next year, likely vaccine will be out and so it'll be like the flu.


Because there are quarantines in western-like countries and some panic buying, I suggest you buy extra canned food, soups, rice, pasta, water etc. that you would normally eat anyway (and toilet paper!).


I'd break this down on (1) markets and (2) health to you. Unless there is good news on vaccine progress ...

For markets, I don't think its overhyped at this time with a 12% correction. No doubt supply chain has been impacted (e.g. supply of iPhones) and demand from consumers hurt because they see their savings decrease (me), concerns about job stability, and who wants to fly on an international flight or get on a cruise. There will be reduce profits overall, not sure if its recession level though.

For health, if you are a healthy younger guy and in the US, then probably overhyped. If you are an older person with pre-existing, it seems pretty serious (70+ is 8%, 80+ is 14% mortality; flu overall is .1% but not sure about age breakdown for flu).


China may be fudging nos. But I think it'll come out as the western nations fight this thing.

From what I've gathered, it's essentially a flu that's 5-20 times more deadly and is spread just as easily.

Since the flu kills around 20,000-45,000 a year in this country, the math is sobering. Although note that a lot of people dying of the flu are the same kind of people who would die from this new virus.

Either way, if it spreads, we could be looking at 100k plus deaths.

This is a good podcast(about 25 minutes) that lays out possibilities.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000466938203