IIRC, SF wanted desperately to trade out of the #1 slot because the 2005 was not the most stellar college class in history, to say the least. In an average draft class, Smith would have been a much lower pick. Given that I think Smith exceeded expectations.

Here was that draft: 2005 NFL Draft Listing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

The best first player taken was likely Demarcus Ware at #11. Nobody in the top 10 really stands out as a great pick. Based on the average value from Pro Football Reference (not sure how it is calculated), Alex Smith basically doubled everyone else in the top 10 and one of those was Pac Man Jones.

3 running backs in the top 5. We aren't gonna see that again for a while (if ever).

Yeah, fun look back. The offensive and defensive rookie of the year were Cadillac Williams and Shawne Merriman... both guys who were basically done as productive players 3 years later. Bad year for 1st round WR outside of Roddy White.

Oh and some guy named Aaron Rodgers... feel free to not go back and look at any of my takes from around that time on him. Overall definitely one of the weakest drafts in regular memory. Smith is actually third in career AV, so outside of predicting what Rodgers would become I guess you'd say it's a pretty good pick.

It seems crazy that Heath Miller, who had a long career with two SB wins AND has been retired for 6 years, was in the same draft. It seems like he has been retired forever.

So painful to see the Jets take Nugent in the 2nd round.

I thought the Pace hire was good at the time. Anything to get away from Emery. And to be fair, Pace has picked up some good players in the draft. However, the trade for Trubisky and the free agent signings will define his tenure. I hope he doesn't bury us with an all out move up the board again.

Right? I think anytime you hit on a top 3 guy in career AV, it has to be considered a good pick. In retrospect, Rodgers was obviously the correct choice, but I think there were about 21 other teams (including Dallas twice) that passed on Rodgers, so it's hard to fault San Fran too much.

It's weird how unless the first overall QB becomes a franchise savior Super Bowl winning quarterback, there is a narrative that he is generally seen as a disappointment, or at least not living up to the hype. This despite the fact that there has been only one quarterback drafted first overall in the past thirty years who has won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him.

Triva: I went to the same high school as Mike Nugent. And Kirk Herbstreit, who was a class ahead of me. (I moved there in my junior year, so we overlapped for a year.)

Steelers sign HC Mike Tomlin to three-year extension

Tomlin extended. The kind of boring, under-the-radar non-move that good teams make in the offseason.

Tomlin is still only 49. He could easily coach the Steelers for another 15-20 years.

When he retires in the somewhat distant future, it will be remarkable that the Steelers will have had only 3 head coaches from 1969 until that point.

There is stability. And then there's the Steelers.

Yeah, I was thinking about Tomlin a little while ago and the (re-)realization that he was basically my age blew me away.

And he hasn't had a losing season.

Saw this on a blog. Pretty fun to pick your team and see what you end up with.

PFN Mock Draft Simulator

I run at least a full set of MIA mocks every day now with each of these sites:

Mock Draft Machine | The Draft Network

PFN Mock Draft Simulator

2021 NFL Mock Draft Simulator | PFF

2021 NFL Mock Draft | Fanspeak On The Clock Simulator

I think its likely my beloved Cards trade down as they have just 6 picks and the GM hinted as much. I think they go with secondary help or maybe TE depending on who is on the board when they pick.

Kansas City is trading its first-round pick Thursday night, along with three other picks in the 2021 and 2022 drafts, to the Baltimore Ravens in exchange for Pro Bowl OT Orlando Brown and one pick in the 2021 draft and another in 2022, per sources.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 23, 2021

Chiefs not playing around.

When you've got a superstar QB, you protect him.

The further we move away from the "He Got Blow'd Up" era of football, the more uncomfortable news like this becomes.

The 49ers are probably going to decide based on YOUR tweets! Keep 'em coming!

— Mitch Goldich �� (@mitchgoldich) April 26, 2021

I laughed.

Guys... we've all been put on notice!

Asked if he could guarantee that Jimmy Garoppolo would be on the 49ers’ roster Sunday, Kyle Shanahan said, “I can’t guarantee that anybody in the world will be alive Sunday."

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 26, 2021

I'm so far beyond fatigue of 49ers picking at 3 coverage it's absurd. I think the worst part about it is it won't be over on Sunday. It won't even be over when the season starts. I might be over by the end of the regular season. I don't know if I can stomach this.

The Pats are in the same boat.

"They're going to trade up! No, They're going to trade back! No, they want this DB, No, they're going to..."

I unequivocally love draft hype

So what's your ideal Dolphins' outcome at 6?

(1) Trade back down?
(2) Pitts/Chase/Smith?
(3) Sewell/Slater?
(4) Something else?

Same. I can’t get enough of it. Articles, podcasts, I want it all.

hmm.

So when everyone keeps saying that your team is going to draft Mac Jones, you are sick of draft coverage.

Otherwise, it's fine.

That checks out.

dola

My somewhat unlikely prediction:

49ers are going to draft Jones. They want Garoppolo out of the building so there is no QB controversy. So they are willing to sell low on a trade.

The Saints (according to local reporters) have been "in" on a lot of the QBs floating around this year (Darnold, Watson, Wilson, etc.). I don't think that they are going to overpay, but I also think that they are smart enough to know that Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill does not mean that you shouldn't keep looking.

So, the 49ers want to dump a QB. The Saints are in the market for the right-priced QB.

I think Jimmy G to the Saints for, like, a 3rd and 5th round pick happens before camp (and probably soon after the draft).

I think the only issue with that thinking is that the 49ers don't care about a controversy. They've got a team that isn't far removed from a Superbowl appearance, and the ready-made excuse that the new draft pick is injury insurance. They don't NEED to sell low, so they can wait around for the price they want. Or just hold on to him.

That is 100% the smart play. They should keep him or trade him at a premium price to a team who loses its starter to injury in week 1 of camp.

But sometimes teams aren't smart. They get emotional. If they do draft Jones and everyone gives them shit for it, I could see a petulant reaction along the lines of "OH YEAH? WELL MAC JONES IS SO AWESOME THAT WE JUST TRADED AWAY EVERY OTHER QUARTERBACK BECAUSE WE DON'T NEED THEM!"

If I were a 49ers fan I wouldn't be happy with the idea that there are four or five QBs that would work at #3.

You don't think that's just posturing so they can try to avoid being held hostage when #2 says "I've got someone who is going to trade up to take the guy you've publicly ID'd as your pick?"

There’s basically zero chance of that happening in this draft though. The first two picks are completely set in stone.

It does sound like there is a lot of split opinion in the niners draft room, on top of the usual smokescreen.

With trading Flowers away, although it was needed for cap room, does that increase the likelihood that the target at 6 is Sewell/Slater?

This. It could be posturing, but there's no need for it. They aren't getting Lawrence or Wilson, but they will have their choice of everyone else. That was all knowable when they made the trade. It's a silly move if they didn't have a specific target.

Fascinating article over on PFF I found via FiveThirtyEight today. Basic conclusion is that being good at drafting is only worth pushing your odds to a little better than a coin flip when you account for round and positional bias. And even that little push might be survivorship bias because if you've drafted well you are more likely to keep your job.

Absolutely fair. And there's a semi-reasonable argument to be made that if you are that certain about the draftee, you get as many assets as you possibly can to support him. Blargh.

My order of preference:

Chase
Pitts
trade down to net a future 1st, no less than that
Sewell

I am increasingly worried that it starts off QB-QB-QB-Pitts-Chase and then I really want them to deal down for value, let someone come up to take Sewell or a QB. A deal down to pick 9, or even 13, could see them still land a Bama receiver.

Then resist the temptation to take the first RB off the board. Please.

Then I'm just resigned that they will target different players from there than what I have been doing in my mocks. Last year I must have mocked the Dolphins' draft at least 100 times, and I never ever ever selected CB Igbinoghene, T Hunt, or DL Davis in any of them, all of whom went to Miami with 1st/2nd round choices. I was SURE they would take one of the interesting safeties, and watched them blithely skip past them all, only to take someone I never considered with a reach in the 3rd.

I think that it does. It seems almost certain they will put at least one early pick toward the OL, but both T and C are real possibilities.


Right now they have, more or less:

T 2020 1st rounder Austin Jackson, veteran Jesse Davis, and maybe 2020 wnd rounder RT Robert Hunt

G 2nd year players Solomon Kindley and maybe Robert Hunt if moved inside to RG, journeyman DJ Fluker, washout youngish G/C Michael Dieter

C Raven castoff Matt Skura, young castabout Cameron Tom

Trading down for Vera-Tucker has to be an interesting option for the Dolphins if they can pull it off. Jackson and AVT having instant chemistry having played together on the left side of the USC line before.

Not a flashy pick, but a guy who is a day one starter to replace Flowers and can also play RT if needed.

Has anyone seen enough of Pitts to tell if the hype is legit? From reading about him, he seems to check all the boxes, physically and intangibles. If that's the case, choosing between him and Chase would be sort of choosing whether it is more valuable to have a potentially good #1 WR or a more unique player at a less impactful position that is potentially much better than all or most players at that position.

I haven't watched film or anything but in game viewing he certainly looked like the real deal to me. As a receiver he's an immediate difference maker and his blocking never stood out as bad or anything.

PFF certainly loves him

I think it will be hard to find a trade partner for an OL. That's the one area where the draft is very deep. Why give up picks when you can get Slater or Darrisaw, etc.?

Cross posting...

My feeling is if you're trading up to 3 & picking a QB because Kyle Shanahan can make a rookie look great that could be an organizational decision, but when it comes to the guy of the 3 options you listen to freaking Kyle Shanahan & take the guy he wants.

Re: the Patriots I think we're in the same spot we've been in for awhile - let the Niners take who they want at 3, wait until the 4th QB gets taken (unless you're very convinced one of the left is worth trading up for, and fwiw while I like Lance the best early reports did have us zeroing in on Jones, though that was before he was mocked to others at 3), and then decide if you want to trade up to beat Washington(/maybe Pittsburgh or New Orleans), or if the cost is too high & you want to hope a Jimmy G or Teddy B is available for like a 5th post-TC.

The wildcard in that is just how much WFT or the others value QB #5, because as much as I'm not convinced we can be more than an AFC semifinal team with Cam I'm also not convinced we need to drop multiple future picks including at least 1 1st to trade up from 15 when there's a solid chance QB#5 falls to 15. (At which point Bill would pass him up for Parsons or be the one trading back with WFT to mess with people;) )

I'm more on the Quik side, but admittedly I'm all about the draft hype *for other teams* while really not caring about it when it involves the Patriots. Even this year when drafting & possibly trading up for a QB are very much in play it's not interesting to me because I'm convinced the Patriots(/Bill) have their value chart & will play the board as it goes. Frankly most of my contributions have been "no, the Patriots won't be trading multiple future 1sts + #15 for the 4th best QB when those teams don't need a QB", which isn't the most fun lane in a draft hype conversation ;)

(PS who are you listening to that is predicting they'll trade back or draft a DB (Surtain?) - it's possible, but that idea doesn't get people talking so I could only see someone like Felger & Mazz doing it to be haters on the idea the Pats would get a QB this draft.)

Patriots Trade Back: NFL rumors: Patriots more likely to trade back than up in 2021 draft?

the DB one, I can't find now, but I think Pats Pulpit

It's just places arguing the counterfactual with zero intel. I mean if you're putting a question mark in the title of the article...

Pats/Bill will play the board. If they think a QB is worth trading up for they will, if they think 4+ defensive guys are the same at #15 they'll trade back. The DB part seems crazy to me given the strength of our secondary & our recent success finding UDFA CB's.

Because a certain former Oregon QB is actively campaigning for his team to deal up for a certain former Oregon OT...

Caleb Farley--either the first or second most talented corner in the draft--has had two back surgeries, so his draft stock is all over the place.

He just got diagnosed with COVID (asymptomatic).

He's either gonna be the biggest steal of the draft or have his career over before it starts for medical reasons.

dola: Forgot that he also had an ACL injury before the back injuries.

I feel bad for the kid. You spend your whole life working for something, and injures might take it away before you reach 25.

Wherever he goes, I'll be rooting for him.

I think CIN will take Chase due to the depth of OL, but if ATL takes Chase, Sewell goes at 5.