NFL 2023 Offseason/Free Agency/Draft Thread
 

Hell of a Super Bowl! Congrats to future Hall Of Famers Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid on continuing to build their legends.

And now let's talk about the rest of our teams.

The first big news will be Derek Carr hitting pre-Free Agency in a few days. His brilliant agent structured his extension so that Carr got a no-trade clause AND the Raiders had to decide to pay him a huge bonus right after the Super Bowl.

That meant that he'd actually get the value of his contract or he'd get a month to himself in free agency before the other QBs hit the market.

And all signs are that they are going to cut him.

As a fan of a QB-needy team, I hope the Saints grab him. But, much like we were with Kirk Cousins, I think that we will all be shocked by what he gets.

He's a top 15-ish or so QB. And those guys rarely hit pure free agency. Even those big 40 and 50 million dollar per year extensions for guys are in places where the team still has some leverage over the player.

All he will need is two teams to get in a bidding war, and he will make "Wait, Derek Carr got how much?" money.

Still waiting on my beloved Cards to hire a new head coach-I think they may have been waiting for the Super Bowl to be over. There isn't a "name" out there that gets me excited for my team again just want them to hire someone with a solid NFL background this time.

Can you explain how the Saints can sign someone in the 30-35 million a year range when they are like 60 million over the cap? It seems like the Saints are always grossly over the cap, but they still seem to sign big ticket FA every year.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

I think Anarumo will make a good HC but I thin Arizona needs an offensive-minded coach to try to handle Murray. It may not work, but they've invested in him and they have to try to make it pay off.

Here ya go, step by step path


How the Saints can get under the salary cap and afford Derek Carr

From what I gather, mostly through Nick Underhill, the Saints are just very heavy into (a) backloading contracts with big no-guaranteed base salary numbers, that eventually serve to make a future year look terrifying cap-wise, but then (b) renegotiating away a lot of the non-guaranteed numbers into more workable but guaranteed numbers as the contracts progress.

But yes they seem to start in cap hell every year and rarely look like they are suffering from it.

The bears are the first team to have the number 1 pick and the most cap space heading into free agency according to what I've read. It's every FOF player's dream scenario.

Supposedly Poles is open to trading down multiple times if the deals are there in order to stockpile picks over multiple years.

I'm expecting the Colts to be aggressive trying to move up. They'll likely want to pair Steichen with a young QB to develop.

Supposedly Plan A in free agency is Orlando Brown so they can move Braxton Jones to RT.

Agree with you. You went all in on Murray when you hired the last coach. Far too soon to give up on the investment

As a Bears fan, my wish is they trade down to #2 with Houston. Then trade down to #4 with the Colts. Then they get either Anderson or Carter.

I'd like to stay in the top 4 to guarantee one of the defensive studs. But I would not have a problem dropping further if someone threw an insane deal their way.

Accountants. Lots of accountants. Probably lawyers, too.


And all they had to do to get here was suck for a generation.

Jerry, all these big companies, they write off everything.

I'm sure Carr will get a big contract. Also sure he will be vastly overpaid and won't be leading anyone deep into the playoffs. I rooted for him for many years but it's clear he does not have what it takes to lead a team to greatness. He's physically talented but mentally weak (in regards to football).

I think there's an emerging consensus that when it comes to QB and salary cap, there are various ways to do it, and there's something of a hierarchy of best to worst...

BEST
.
dirt cheap guy signed from grocery store who becomes MVP
.
.
really good young QB under cheap rookie contract
excellent veteran QB on expensive market contract
.
pretty good young QB under cheap rookie contract
.
veteran role-filler on cheap contract
unknown young QB on cheap contract
.
pretty good veteran QB on expensive market contract
terrible QB under just about any contract
.
.
terrible veteran QB on expensive market contract
.
WORST


While most of this is intuitive, it's the "pretty good guy now up for a new contract" situation that is daunting. Washington just let Kirk Cousins walk in this situation, but most teams don't have the guts to do so. I know Minnesota just came off a nice regular season, but there's a solid argument that they are in fact hindered, not helped, by having a huge contract with Cousins as a "pretty solid" QB who doesn't seem to elevate the team to higher levels. Carr seems like that guy, too, and a team paying him $35m/yr or more for the years ahead might find themselves in a similar spot. You need a really hot roster/scheme around a so-so QB to be something special.

To no one's surprise at this point:

Shane Steichen Officially Named Head Coach of the Indianapolis Colts - Stampede Blue

Yeah, I feel that way about Carr too. I mean he's not awful but he's what, maybe 8th-best at the position in his current conference? Maybe he'd be a little better in the NFC (ok -- he would be, most of the conf is either aging, untested, or crap) but eh, big money for him??

Anyone know where you can find another HOF QB from a local grocery store?

SI

The QB disparity between the AFC and NFC is pretty significant at this point.

Beyond Jalen Hurts are there any superstar quarterbacks in the NFC?

Brady retired and who knows who will even be a starting QB for any of the NFC South teams next year.

Kyler Murray is currently injured, plays too much CoD and is a jack ass.
Stafford is old and beat up.
Geno Smith is still Geno Smith.
Brock Purdy has know throwing arm and who knows what Trey Lance even is.

Aaron Rodgers is still around (at the moment), but his play was pretty sporadic last year and he's a complete weirdo.
Justin Fields is an amazing running back, but hasn't show the ability to be a passer in the NFL (granted he has zero weapons and a terrible O-Line).
Kirk Cousins is Kirk Cousins.
Jared Goff is Jared Goff.

I mean, heading into next year, it's possible that the Lions' Jared Goff could be one of the three best QBs in the conference!

I believe I saw the Cardinals listed as a 200-1 longshot to win the next SB.

I'm not saying I love their chances. but at the midpoint of the 2021 season they had the best record in football and were atop many "power rankings." I know the last year wasn't kind to them, but they will have a new regime/scheme in place, and it's hard to imagine it being worse than before.

I know it's hard to back longshots, but I think the proper odds should be more like... 60-1? Flawed as they are, this isn't the Texans and their roster.

I get, and agree with, your main point, but...


...are we sure about that?

...and yes, I am indeed the guy who puts down a $20 win ticket on a longshot horse, and when he makes a middling move to finish a semi-competitive 4th place, I feel like a winner as I crumple up my losing ticket.

This is a very fair point. Geno was pretty great for the majority of last season, markedly better than he has been in the past.

HB: I mean, call me crazy but I still think Dak is pretty good.

Geno Smith has made ~$17 million over 10 years.

The Seahawks can offer him a team-friendly slightly under-market contract, and he'll still make more in signing bonus than his entire career earnings.

It feels like there's a lot of room for a deal where both sides walk away very happy.

I did forget to breakdown the rest of the NFC East after Hurts:

Dak is pretty good, but, also, he threw a ton of picks.
Danny Dimes played well last year, but is currently a free agent and isn't blowing the doors off aynone.
Sam Howell is currently QB1 for the Commanders.

If Rodgers ends up getting traded to an AFC team, that makes Dak very likely the number two QB in the NFC? Could very well be the case even if Rodgers stays.

Jim Irsay giving a press conference on how much he wants Bryce Young.

I'm sure his GM loves that bit of table setting before he calls Chicago to inquire about the #1 overall pick.

Detroit Lions Offseason (brought to you by: Being Forced To Go To The Office.)

This will be a huge off-season for the Lions. For this first time in a long time, the team is finally on the upswing. They finished the season incredibly strong, ended up with a winning record and could very likely be the favorites to win the NFC North (something the Lions have never done since the NFC North was formed 21 years ago).

The Bears are in the midst of a massive re-build. (Let's hope they go crazy and decide to trade Justin Fields and draft Bryce Young!)

If the Packers trade Aaron Rodgers, they should take a step back with Jordan Love.

The Vikings have to shed salary and should regress some after winning so many close games.

So, for the first time in over two decades the Lions may have a shot at this thing.

The Lions have picks 6 and 18 in the first round and three more picks in the top 82 (thanks to the Hockenson deal) and have a decent amount of cap space available and will have more once they shed some contracts from players who didn't really contribute last year.

Offense

Offensive Line
The Lions had a pretty great offense last year. Their offensive line is their strength with Decker, Jackson, Ragnow and Sewel. They still need a RG, but the other four are really solid. Getting a solid starting RG and making a position of strength even better is a strategy I support.

Running Back
Jamaal Williams is a free agent and D'Andre Swift is always hurt, so the Lions will need to address RB in free agency or the draft. The RB class in this draft is super deep, so I think they could get a decent player in the later rounds. I love Jamaal Williams. He's a heart and soul guy, loves anime and runs hard. You just can't spend a ton of money on a RB in this league. So, not sure how this will play out.

Tight End
After trading Hockenson, the Lions tight ends were Zylstra, Brock Wright and rookie James Mitchell. That group was quite productive, especially in the red zone. I know there has been a lot of speculation that the Lions might spend a day one or two pick on tight end in this draft (and it's a pretty solid tight end class), but I am not sure if that'll happen given how well the TE-by-committee approached his year. Maybe if one of the TEs falls.

Wide Receiver
The Lions will, essentially, have a third first rounder this year due to Jameson Williams barely playing last year. He caught one pass (a 41 yard touchdown) and had one rush (a 40 yard run). That's it. He showed his explosiveness and a healthy, fully-integrated J-Mo could be a huge addition. Amon St. Brown is fantastic. After Jamar Chase, he could be the best WR in the 2021 draft class (Waddle and Devonta Smith the other two). After that, things thin out considerably. Chark is UFA and played well when healthy. They'll need do something here.

Quarterback
This is the big one on offense. Goff played exceptionally well last year. He seems to have really clicked with OC Ben Johnson and had a great statistical year. That being said, he's still Jared Goff and has all the limitations that come with it. After watching the Super Bowl and Hurts and Mahomes super human performances, it's hard to imagine winning it all with Goff as your QB. I just don't see what the other options are.

I don't think the Lions are in a position to trade for or sign a veteran QB that would supplant him.

I am not in love with the draft class. Even if all of the QBs happened fall, such that the Lions wouldn't have to give up draft capital to move up, (which won't happen), I am not sure if Bryce Young, CJ Stroud (who seems to be like a young Goff in that he can be really good so long as he isn't facing pressure), Levis, or Anthony Richardson are really all that.

The Lions are poised to make a push now - and even making or dare I say winning a playoff (a feat that has only happened once since 1957 and that was back in 1991) would be huge for this franchise - and spending that pick on a QB wouldn't help the Lions next year or could even push them back a few years. They will need to address the QB position at some point. I have no problem with them using a lower round pick on a young, back-up QB without any intention of him becoming the full time starter, because I can't recall the last time the Lions had a back-up QB of note.

The Lions can hang onto Goff this year without having to make a big decision on his future, but after that something will have to give.

I think the Lions view Goff as their starter this year and into the near future and, unless something weird happens, stand pat and don't draft a QB early.

Defense

The first half of the year, the Lions defense was historically bad. Absolutely awful. They started to turn it around the second half of the season. They weren't amazing, but played well enough (save that game against Carolina) to keep the Lions in most games.

The positive spin is that, a lot of the second half success was due to younger players coming through and playing bigger rolls. Aidan Hutchinson became a bit of a force as the season went on. I think he got injured in that Commanders game early in the season, which slowed him down, but the Lions started to move him around more and deploy him differently, which really helped. Josh Paschal was injured the entire first half of the season and came on late. Malcolm Rodriguez played exceptionally well at LB for a 6th round pick. James "The Problem" Houston (6th round pick) had 8 sacks in 8 games. Kerby Joseph (3rd round) started to make plays.

So, there are a few decent young pieces on the defense, but, overall, the defense needs significant upgrades on all levels. You have to imagine that the Lions will spend some money in free agency and use some of their early round draft picks to try to significantly improve their defense.

Defensive Line
Aidan Hutchinson did almost everything you'd want out of a second overall pick. He led all rookies in sacks, had three interceptions and was a disruptive force as the season went on. Second year DL Alim McNeil really showed some flashes (especially against NYG). Isiah Buggs was solid and John Cominksy, who the Lions got off waivers, was really productive. He'sa UFA, so they will need to re-sign him. Lions 2nd round pick from 2021, Levi Onwuzurike, has been injured his entire career so far and has done nothing. It's beginning to look like a wasted pick.

Romeo Okwara just came back from an achilles and was limited. He's a candidate to be cut. There isn't much after that. Brad Holmes has shown a propensity to draft in the trenches early on (Sewel & Onwuzurike in the first and second rounds last year and Hutchinson and Paschal this year). I could see that trend continuing this year.

Linebacker
The league doesn't seem to value this position as much as it once did and based on the Lions roster construction, neither does Brad Holmes. Rodriguez was a sixth round gem, but the fact that a 6th round pick can come in and start right away tells you everything. Alex Anzalone, who came over with Campbell from New Orleans, is the leader of this group. He's fine and he's all in, but he's not a difference maker. Neither is Derek Barnes (a former 4th round pick). James Houston was a revelation as a pass rusher from Thanksgiving on, but it remains to be seen what he can beyond being an excellent situational pass rusher.

I think this could be a great place for a free agent. Lavonte David would seem to be a great fit. I wouldn't mind Drew Sanders out of Arkansas at 18 either.

Secondary
The Lions secondary is pretty awful. Kerby Joseph stepped up really nicely and Jerry Jacobs (UFA) was a huge addition once he got back from his ACL injury last year, but there just isn't much here. Team leader, Tracy Walker, tore his achilles early in the year (the third time in two years that the Lions lost one of their top defensive players to an achilles - Okudah and Okwara went down last year). After being destroyed by Patricia and then blowing out his achilles, Okudah finally started to come around a bit this year, playing some solid ball, until he didn't and was benched for long stretches at the end of the year. I can't see the Lions picking up his 5th year option. Yet, another turd from the Quinntricia era. There isn't much to talk about beyond this.

So, the Lions will need to upgrade their secondary either through free agency or the draft.

The Draft

It still kills me that the Rams pick isn't better. That stupid Bakery Mayfield comeback against the Raiders and that ridiculous Houston victory over the Colts did not help. Two games that should have ended very differently and in the Lions favor. (The Denver/Rams game was, also, very bad for the Lions, but that was such a blowout for the Rams that it's hard to get too upset by it.)

As a result, the Lions are picking sixth. By all consensus, defensively in this draft there is Jalen Carter and Will Anderson and then huge cliff and no consensus third best player.

A lot of mocks have the Lions taking some combination of a defensive lineman and defensive back with their top two picks. In some, it's Tyree Wilson (DE) at six in others its a cornerback - Witherspoon, Porter or Gonzalez. I don't love taking a cornerback that early, but I am not sure what the options are with that pick. Maybe if one of the quarterbacks slips, the Lions could trade down? But that's rather speculative.

With the 18th overall pick - the Lions could, also, go D-Line or secondary. Other potential options would be linebacker, safety (if Branch were still there), or build on their strength and draft a guard to fill that final piece on the O-Line (O’Cyrus Torrence would be amazing along side Penei Sewel). Do they go crazy and draft Bijan Robinson? Given how deep the running back class seems to be, I would think not.

Beyond that, the Lions need to address the defense, as noted, will likely need another running back, maybe a late round back-up QB, and then use picks to fill holes not addressed in free agency.

As it stands now, I'll give Holmes the benefit of the doubt. His drafts have been pretty solid so far. Last year, in particular, seems to be a really solid draft class if trends continue.

Free Agency
I haven't looked too closely at the free agent class yet. Holmes hasn't signed any big time free agents so far. It's been pretty much all one-year deals or two at the most. I don't blame him. The Lions haven't been in a position yet to where spending money a free agent made sense. I feel like that has changed and now could be the time to add a piece or two. Lavonte David would be ideal at LB. There a ton of good free agent running backs who could be had for cheap. The Lions have money and needs, so they could address some here to give them more flexibility in the draft.

Would have really liked an offensive guy here but if he can get players like former Cardinal Haason Reddick, who the Cards gave up on way too early, to play at such a level that would be great. They need sack generators pretty badly and the secondary needs a lot of work too.



I guess like the previous head coach, I'm a wait and see with Gannon. Let's see who he brings in on the offensive side of the staff first.

Going back ten years your starting SB QBs were:

Flacco / Kaepernick
Wilson / Manning
Brady / Wilson
Manning* / Newton
Brady / Ryan
Foles / Brady
Brady / Goff
Mahomes / Jimmy G
Brady / Mahomes
Stafford / Burrow
Mahomes / Hurts

Which I feel supports your thesis, QS.

Edit: Another two things. One, I suspect it's really easy for franchises to overestimate the quality of their roster and believe they can go far with a good-but-not-great QB. Two, the Patriots really tested exactly how crappy your supporting cast around a great QB can be and still go far and win Super Bowls.

*noodle-armed Manning

Hiring a DC that got torched in the Super Bowl worked out great for Detroit and Matt Patricia. /s

Unsubscribe.

given what has transpired in the current and last offseasons, we can infer that the league views Carr more as an Andy Dalton than a Kirk Cousins. No one would give him a big contract (including the raiders) and a meaningful pick.


the contract extension signed last season was a pretty good deal for the raiders. Carr was on the last yr of the contract and sold his future franchise tags as cheap team options with yearly expirations but 'free' roll over. he got back the no-trade clause and the timing of the team decision on guaranteeing the next yr's salary pushed earlier by a month compared to a franchise tag. it's probably the best deal that could have been done for both parties at that point.

Nobody would give a meaningful pick because they knew the Raiders would have to release him and the cap hit would have been high. There are so many needy teams for a QB that I can see him getting a nice pay day. Jets, Colts, Commanders, Panthers, Saints, Bucs, Falcons, maybe the 49ers.

Thanks for the writeup. After Hard Knocks last year, I am a big fan.

So, let's say that Lamar Jackson wants a market-setting contract with a lot of guaranteed money that puts most of the risk of injury on the team.

So if there's a trade offer out there for 3 first round picks, what is the right play?

Should a QB needy team be willing to trade 3 firsts and give Lamar that contract?

Should the Ravens be willing to take 3 firsts for Lamar?

Should the Ravens just give him the huge contract that he wants?

No, yes, and no.

Lamar is a video game character when he is healthy. 26 years old and an MVP candidate every year.

So, to me, the "when he's healthy" part of that is what it really comes down to.

I *think* that if I were the Ravens, I'd have just enough worries about his health, and just enough confidence in my coaching and front office to think that I can turn those three extra first rounders and the cap space that I'd save into something pretty great. I think I'd take the deal.

On the other side of that, if I were a team in the NFC (which seems pretty wide open over the next few years), I might be willing to do what it takes to get him. If you are the Panthers or Falcons or Commanders, what do you really have to lose?

Every offseason in every sport, we always talk about amazing what-if trades that never actually happen. But I think that the Lamar trade is slightly more likely to happen than most because I see a world where it makes sense for all parties.

Travis Kelce hosting SNL is going to be brutal most likely.

I can speak for the Falcons....they can lose a lot. I have actually seen the number closer to 4 first rounders or 3 and another couple of picks. The Falcons need way too much roster help to give up thar much. Not to mention the crazy contract demands for a guy that is a season ending injury waiting to happen. I can totally see a trade going down, Lamar injured for the year in week two, and the Ravens getting the first pick of the draft in 2024. I think the fan base would literally jump off a cliff.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

That'd be some Smith family caliber stuff right there

Per source, Lions DL coach Todd Wash is leaving to join the Carolina Panthers' staff as DL coach.

— Dan Graziano (@DanGrazianoESPN) February 16, 2023

The Panthers ran for 320 yards vs. Detroit. Am I missing something?

Lamar not having an agent is going to make this process a zillion times more complicated than it needs to be. He should come in at around 5 years/215mlion with about 65%-80% of that fully guaranteed. But to even trade him you’d have to have him sign the tag first and then agree to the contract after compensation has been agreed upon. And while all of that seems doable, not having anyone at the rudder to steer the produces along is going to be difficult.

I don't blame Lamar for trying to break the bank here - he should be making more than Murray and Wilson and Watson, in my opinion. His two healthy years (+ rookie year), he was ridiculous. But, between the injuries and money, I think I would move on if I got a Godfather offer rather than sign him for $50M+ per season.

I think I would slot him behind Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and I think Lawrence (given his age and contract) and then put him towards the front of a tier with Herbert, Hurts, an interested Aaron Rodgers (if that is still a thing), a healthy Tua (is that still a thing?) and just above Dak and Watson (he has questions, but these other guys do, too)?

I think the Ravens are too smart and too well run of an organization to tie up so much of their cap in a player that seems likely to miss 20% or more of games most seasons. If they have to jettison 3 or 4 good starters in order to keep Jackson, I think I would rather go with keeping the team competitive and trying to find someone like Jimmy G. or Tannehill and grab a QB to develop.

Sign him to a huge contract and load the contract up with clawbacks due to injury and requirements for significant injury-prevention physiotherapy work.

Flere, he would never sign it. He won't sign a deal a dime under what Watson is getting. All guaranteed.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Thomas Brown is going to be the new OC in Carolina, and Eric Beiniemy is taking the OC job in Washington. From Super Bowl to....the Commanders.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

I assume that means all the conventional wisdom about him being seen as nothing more than Reid's clipboard holder was true.

I think it means he will always be considered that unless he takes a job where he is in total control of the offense. I really don't think it matters. Being a good coordinator doesn't necessarily mean a person would be a good head coach. You can jump from position coach to head coach if you have the right whatever it is that makes a good head coach.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Except in one specific way. His demand that the contract be fully guaranteed meshes neatly with the missing agent. Makes everything about the number, much easier to comprehend what offers are strong or weak.

The standard contract with multiple options and lock-in clauses would be very hard to understand if you're not really immersed in the language. Fully guaranteed is far clearer for everyone to assess.

Yeah, that's crazy.