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-   -   Werewolf CXXIV - Watchmen (Game Over, Wolves Win!, endpost:704) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=80532)

saldana 02-03-2011 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2419432)
I would really love to be cunning wolf one of these times in a game with a traditional seer role. But that, much like the traditional duke role, continues to evade me.

Anyway, I don't put a ton of stock in EF's reveal. The wolves know what roles are in the game and which are not. Therefore, EF won't be countered tomorrow but that proves very little.

I'm hoping new information emerges tomorrow, but I'm not hopeful at this point. This has been a very bad 24 hours for us, would only have been worse if DT was a roled villager.


this was the point i was alluding to earlier when i said we could fight about it tomorrow...he made a reveal of the one role that has no chance of being confirmed

since the wolves know what roles arent in the game, he picked the one that we cant do anything except leave him alive to verify.

EagleFan 02-03-2011 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2419438)
this was the point i was alluding to earlier when i said we could fight about it tomorrow...he made a reveal of the one role that has no chance of being confirmed

since the wolves know what roles arent in the game, he picked the one that we cant do anything except leave him alive to verify.


Actually, Jackal picked the role, or was involved in it with a dice roll (or however he picked them).

EagleFan 02-03-2011 11:59 PM

dola: Ater the night kill it's going to be 3ither 5-3 or 6-2 (my guess is 5-3). If I am right, we have to nail the three wolves on th enext three lynches or the wolves win. There is one hting that I can guarantee, if you lynch me the game will be over and the wolves will have thrown a shutout.

Danny 02-04-2011 12:48 AM

Ugg, this was not a good night. I find it odd that we had all this late movement towards DT who I pretty clearly read as a villager as he tends to be more active and involved as a wolf. I think we need to look back at EagleFan and Saldana for tomorrow. I think at least one of them has to be a wolf.

Danny 02-04-2011 12:56 AM

And quite interesting is that neither had a meaningful vote for each other today and both could be wolves. My guess is if they are both wolves, they know it's going to be the two of them in a showdown tomorrow and they will likely vote each other early to distance that possibility

Danny 02-04-2011 01:04 AM

Day 1

Autumn
- 6 - PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
EF - 4- (hoops 92[/color], saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)

I am putting CR as green. I'm pretty sure everyone other than me checked in after his reveal and I'm not the seer, so his reveal looks good.

Danny 02-04-2011 01:05 AM

Day 2 ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

Danny 02-04-2011 01:06 AM

Day 3
DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)

Danny 02-04-2011 01:07 AM

Saldana did place a key vote on EF during day 1, so that might detract some thunder from the idea that they are both wolves. But it did sure look like today that they tried to avoid getting one another lynched.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 01:13 AM

I don't have much to add at this point, although I assume I'll be dust in the morning. Although you all have to be aware of the possibility of the cunning having been scanned, I think you have enough candidates besides Danny and hoops to look elsewhere for a bit. I really do think both of them are good, on top of having read them as good.

I know there has been talk about DT being good means EF is bad or something like that. But I would also point out that DT being good was also in my scenario that had sal has a wolf.

The Jackal 02-04-2011 07:58 AM

Going to process results a bit early today since I need to pack and stuff, and everyone's gotten their actions in.

The Jackal 02-04-2011 08:06 AM

You wake up, and to your relief.. everyone is alive.

You do not know what has occurred, but it seems something has finally gone in your favor.

Day four begins!

The Jackal 02-04-2011 08:09 AM

Going to be posting from my phone today, so if someone else could take care of the vote counts during the day and at deadline, that would be appreciated.

saldana 02-04-2011 08:17 AM

2nd bodyguard? i cant imagine that with multiple wolves out there that none of them put in an order

jeff061 02-04-2011 08:30 AM

He said everyone got their actions in...so. Weird. Does this have any tie in with the CR reveal?

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 08:33 AM

Completely not what I expected. I guess I'm going to take a look at the roles and see if there is anything that could explain how all are accounted for in a game with no bodyguard and no conversions.

jeff061 02-04-2011 08:37 AM

Got it. They tried to attack Manhattan and he can't be night killed.

jeff061 02-04-2011 08:38 AM

Then again he hasn't been revealed. I don't know.

jeff061 02-04-2011 08:40 AM

Hidden Manhattan power?

J23 02-04-2011 08:43 AM

I'm guessing it has to be Manhattan. From reading the descriptions it says that he has unknown powers. Maybe inherits the other dead hero powers or something? That could have given him BG once Lathum died. The only other alternative, as jeff said, was a nightkill on Manhattan that failed. Maybe the wolves figured out who he was, but he wasn't considered revealed, which means he couldn't be nightkilled?

PackerFanatic 02-04-2011 08:45 AM

Since the wolves now know who I am, there is no point for me to hide anymore - I am Dr. Manhattan and once The Comedian was killed, I gained his BG power. I wasn't intending on using it last night, but once CR came out, I figured it would help us gain a little more insight to see if he truly is the seer. Since my block was successfully, that is obviously clear.

I cannot block again tonight, and now that I am revealed, the wolves do have a way to kill me as well (although I don't know what it is). I still have my duke powers as well.

PackerFanatic 02-04-2011 08:46 AM

Had they tried to NK me, they would have failed and I would have been revealed to them as well...but they specifically attacked CR, as I was guarding him.

EagleFan 02-04-2011 08:50 AM

Why would they not go after CR?

Did they go after that rogue wolf? Would that lead to no night kill?

EagleFan 02-04-2011 08:51 AM

Oh, PF explained it while I sat on the reply. :)

EagleFan 02-04-2011 08:54 AM

This is the first good news of the game. We now have...

jeff061
PackerFanatic - duke
saldana
Darth Vilus
Danny - seer cleared
EagleFan - hunter
hoopsguy - seer cleared
Chief Rum - seer
J23

That leaves at least 2 wolves in the group of J23, jeff061, saldana and DV.

Still a possible cunning among Danny and hoops but that is for us to worry about at a later time.

Plus we have the CR scan result to see for last night.

jeff061 02-04-2011 08:55 AM

Hopefully CR didn't give up and did send a command in. Could be a huge night.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 08:55 AM

Doc Manhatten also has unknown powers, which is only thing I can see that could fit. There was a role that could "disable" but it was only a day phase option.

I want to take a minute to talk about the roles that we've seen in the game so far and what we think might be in the game.

14 players
Dead Villagers - Bodyguard, Fake Seer, 2 vanilla villagers
Dead Wolves - Cultist
Unconfirmed Reveals - Seer, Hunter

Now that we know that the Fake Seer and Cultist were in the game, would anyone care to speculate about what the starting ratios would have been for villager/wolf?

EagleFan 02-04-2011 08:56 AM

vote saldana

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 08:58 AM

OK, update to post #427:

14 players:
Dead Villagers - Bodyguard, Fake Seer, 2 vanilla villagers
Dead Wolves - Cultist
Unconfirmed Reveals - Seer, Hunter, Uber-role (Manhatten)

I'm not well versed in Watchmen, but I expected Manhatten to be in the game. And just about every game of WW has a seer, so unless someone challenges CR on it I'm prepared to accept that reveal.

Now that we know that the Fake Seer and Cultist were in the game, along with a villager uber-role, would anyone care to speculate about what the starting ratios would have been for villager/wolf?

jeff061 02-04-2011 08:58 AM

I am leaning very heavily towards Saldana right now. But I want to wait for CR.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 08:59 AM

Packer, how were you sure that the wolves knew who you were? Often, a "block" in games doesn't reveal identity to either side.

jeff061 02-04-2011 09:00 AM

Quote:

That leaves at least 2 wolves in the group of J23, jeff061, saldana and DV.

Still a possible cunning among Danny and hoops but that is for us to worry about at a later time.

This is what it boils down to right now and what we need to focus on.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 09:01 AM

jeff, why are you leaning towards Saldana over EF?

I'm also waiting to see what CR might have in terms of scans, but I'm curious why you are gravitating towards one candidate (Sal) over another (EF) at this stage.

Is it tied to his reveal, or other reasons?

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 09:03 AM

I think everyone more or less agrees on the pool of people to look at for today, barring a clear target being offered by the seer (I put EF in the pool he provided) but I'm curious about why people are drifting towards candidates with the currently available info. It makes for good discussion while waiting for west coast CR to get in here :)

jeff061 02-04-2011 09:04 AM

That'd be a pretty big bluff revealing as hunter with a decent amount of villagers alive that could be one as well. But that's why I haven't cast a vote yet, waiting on CR.

Wish I had more background on how EF usually plays, he seems to have played a very erratic game so far.

PackerFanatic 02-04-2011 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2419603)
Packer, how were you sure that the wolves knew who you were? Often, a "block" in games doesn't reveal identity to either side.


I was told they now know who I am. I would guess based on my role - pretty much any type of other action against me would reveal me to them, so it's not surprising that this did too.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419610)
That'd be a pretty big bluff revealing as hunter with a decent amount of villagers alive that could be one as well. But that's why I haven't cast a vote yet, waiting on CR.

Wish I had more background on how EF usually plays, he seems to have played a very erratic game so far.


No, it isn't. The wolves know what roles are in the game per Jackal. So there is no risk in fake revealing for the wolves. I'll find the quote if this isn't understood by all.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 09:16 AM

Wow, okay.... I thought last night's post was my last in this game, short of maybe a goodbye post. Thank you, PF, and sorry for having you on my slight distrust list.

Two things of note beyond the event itself. One, Eaglefan came up good. Still subject to cunning possibility, of course, but he is good. Two, the description I was given indicated that two approached me at once. Now, that could have been the wolf killer and Dr Manhattan, but my impression from the way my PM read was that the "two" was actually referencing the number of wolves. I thought that might be useful information.

Not that that last matters much--we have to get to two wolves before we get to three.

We need to keep in mind that Ozymandias is a very powerful figure as well. If Dr. Manhattan has this nice power set, then certainly the wolves will have cards up their sleeves as well, and I have a feeling they're going to be using them big time now.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2417630)
A note that I will add to the rules section: The wolves will know which roles are not in the game, should there be any.

I changed my mind, if anyone saw the original post.


Post #58

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419610)
That'd be a pretty big bluff revealing as hunter with a decent amount of villagers alive that could be one as well. But that's why I haven't cast a vote yet, waiting on CR.

Wish I had more background on how EF usually plays, he seems to have played a very erratic game so far.


As someone who has played with EF a ton, I would describe his play this game as atypical of him. Not that he plays vanilla, but he's certainly not normally this erratic.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 09:19 AM

Cool, glad that CR got a scan in and agree that we move on to other candidates at this point rather than sweating cunning wolf options at this point in the game.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2419623)
Post #58


Yup, I had remembered that from the rules and when you brought it up last night, that came back.

That and the cunning means we can only clear two of the three seer scans so far (including EF), at least based on reveal as well.

jeff061 02-04-2011 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2419620)
No, it isn't. The wolves know what roles are in the game per Jackal. So there is no risk in fake revealing for the wolves. I'll find the quote if this isn't understood by all.


That's right, someone(you?) had mentioned that. I'm leaning towards either Hoops or Eagle being cunning(based on recent scan). Based on purposely making waves, Eagle. I still trust Danny to a certain degree...going back to the first day vote where the only 2 people that voted for him were dead the next day.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2419626)
Cool, glad that CR got a scan in and agree that we move on to other candidates at this point rather than sweating cunning wolf options at this point in the game.


A not so hard stance for you to get behind, I am sure. :devil:

(oh, and I agree with you ;) )

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 09:24 AM

Day 1:
Originally Posted by The Jackal
Autumn - 6 - (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)



Day 2:
Originally Posted by The Jackal
ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)


Day 3:
DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)

I expect formatting is going to be funky on this one, but wanted to post all the final vote stuff in one thread for reference.

jeff061 02-04-2011 09:26 AM

So let's simplify:

Quote:

That leaves at least 2 wolves in the group of J23, jeff061, saldana and DV.

Vote Saldana.

I am out for a couple hours. I have some thoughts floating around in my head that direct me quite squarely at Saldana and J23 out of this group. I'll likely put them in writing later.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2419629)
A not so hard stance for you to get behind, I am sure. :devil:

(oh, and I agree with you ;) )


I'm just not going to start mounting defenses unless people really want me to do so.

I've got more free time to work on this now than I've had all week, and I want to be on the offensive rather than defensive if that is agreeable to our group.

Danny 02-04-2011 09:29 AM

I was actually leaning towards voting EagleFan today, but at this point, it doesn't make sense to target a potential cunning so I will be voting elsewhere. Avoiding the cunning discussion for now, our potential votes are Jeff, Darth, Saldana and J23. Based on everything, I see little reason not to vote Saldana.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 09:30 AM

The first-glance takeaway from the votes is that if Saldana is not a wolf, then we haven't had votes on anyone (at the end) who sits in our current suspect list.

We've got a solid (if imperfect) trust list right now: CR, PF, EF, Danny, and me. That is five trusted, four not trusted.

Danny 02-04-2011 09:32 AM

And I agree with Jeff that J23 and Saldana both look like potential wolves right now. I don't have a read one way or the other on Darth, but he's been pretty inactive so far.


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