Why is that chance so small? My intrepretation of the rules is that a wolf has just as much chance of being the medic as any individual villager (1/8). Presuming that there are 2 evil dukes (Still not sure about this but for the sake of argument) then there's a 25% chance that the medic is evil.

I was worried about this but the fact that Vaimes claims that Fonti blatantly claimed to be duke despite the evidence to the contrary makes me much happier about a vote being duked to Vaimes than I was before I noticed that. (when I had Vaimes as my most trusted villager).

There is also the bullhorn available which prevents any duking. Not sure if I think the situation would warrant using it at this stage. And, of course, it might be in the hands of the wolves.

Do I take it that all the people voting Martin agree with me that they would not protect a random player if they were the medic on day two? Otherwise I don't see why you would find Martin's actions particularly suspicious.

If martin is town, and we vote him he has to burn his duke ability and presumably he dukes to vaimes.

If vaimes is wolf in this situation, he's hosed, so the only way to save him is for a duke wolf to duke and hope for the best in the tie breaker, or use an item to prevent the duke.

Worst case is that the hunter peacemaker is a wolf, and nullifies the duke. Vaimes looks suspicious in this case.

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If martin is a wolf, and vaimes is town, martin dukes to vaimes. Vaimes turns up good and we still look at martin with suspicion.

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If none of them are wolves.. then vaimes actions, and the coincidence of martin protecting font, have just wasted a day for the town.

Can you recheck that. I am thinking that the chance has to be 0.9% or thereabouts! #cheekicorp :p

All joking aside... as I read the rules any combination of village/wolf and duke/hunter roles seems possible. I won't get into arguing the percentages but I believe it is an equal likelihood :)

I don't think obsessing over the Martin/Font/Vaimes triangle is going to do us good right now. There are a lot of possibilities, and with time, we will begin to figure out which one. But letting the vote center simply on those three is going to hurt us in the long run. I suggest we find other candidates, and let that action be just one piece of evidence we keep in mind.

If I am medic in that situation I don't think I would protect a player who has not claimed. I'd likely wait for a good aux claim or someone I had a very good read on. It could be playing vegas odds in an unknown scenario but I am leaning evil there. The martin vote tells us the most about the vaimes/font/martin triangle. I am around all day so I am equally ok with moving to a suspected evil if things move in that direction.

#crosspost lol.

I also believe so. Chief is usually pretty fair and truly random and the rules don't forbade wolves from having Duke/Hunter roles, which would allow for such things.

I completely agree with this. We're working ourselves up over a small portion of the village. There is the chance that not a single one of the three are wolves. If that happens to be the case, we're really wasting today. At the same time, it's been hard to get a read on anybody. It's been kept really close to the vest all around.

I believe Chief said one kill/attempted kill per day, no?

We know a little about vaimes and can wait on him I think. Font is a non issue today. I am voting martin right now in order to at least get something out of todays lynch unless something else presents itself. There has been some traction with cheeki but he is reading more as a noob villager. I think evil cheeki has been more defensive of any votes going his way but I need to check his past few games.

Because I am horrible at math.

I will show myself out ;)

For some reason I was thinking the odds were lower than that.

I agree in theory. Obsessing about anything is never a good idea - as I, more than most, know in werewolf. But it is kind of hard when the two tangible question marks, for me, are about Vaimes and Martin.

Wow. I mean, based on all that there is no way Vaimes knew font was a duke unless they were in contact.

Meaning at best: educated guess.
At worst: they're both wolves trying to pull the wool over our eyes.

My suspicion of MartinD has nothing to do with thoughts of whether he could be Medic AND wolf (that's certainly possible). It was the fact that there's no way he both knew Vaimes was serious and had time to get in his protection order on font before Vaimes pulled the trigger (because Vaimes did so pretty quickly). In my eyes, MartinD had to have contact with either font or Vaimes, or both, to coordinate.

Answered below in my response to Grover.

Okay. This is much more compelling for me. Thanks, cheek.

unvote cheekimonk

Seems like a meta read from Vaimes. Not sure what to make of that... vaimes has been known to rock the boat as town. Going off of memory but vaimes seems consistent with last game when he was chaotic villager. Need to reread to compare.

With Vaimes apparently screwing up and outing font as a duke (he said she claimed when she never did), that screams wolf. So, if MartinD dukes to Vaimes, a wolf still dies. If MartinD dukes to anyone else, he's taking his chances that he doesn't duke to a Duke which would kill him, too.

I don't think so. I also had Font down in my notes as Duke. She didn't say it outright, but I thought it was clear from her posts. My vote is staying here on Cheeki, who seems to be excited to have this handle to push a lynch with.

I'm excited that I seem to finally understand things enough to analyze. Plus, this is an intriguing situation to ponder, so it's enjoyable in that sense.

What do you mean by this? Vaimes I believe had stated the day before that he was going to kill Font the next day. That seems like a lot of time, or do you mean he didn't have time to send the actual order in once deadline came about?

Did he hint on this yesterday? I only remember seeing Vaims mention it right after deadline yesterday. Early evening.

For the record, this is the sentence which I believe revealed Font as a Duke:

"I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay and go for a Hunter toMorrow, minor win condition be damned, because Hunters can be lynched if they fail to shoot scum."

This suggested that she was willing to start with a Duke kill despite it going against her own interests. Still a chance to take to target her, I had her down with a question mark, but not nothing.

Feels like we haven't heard from Font in a while.

Reread false claim martyr villager!vaimes in pokemon to compare to this vaimes. His activity seems to be fairly similar. His explanation of his martyr claim was much more details than what he offered up here. I assume that has a little to do with defending himself to the entire group in pokemon to defending himself to me here. His tone seems consistent but he is a little less focused on minor comments that show he is following the game closely (he provided nudges and input in pokemon). I am talking myself in circles but there seems to be a different vaimes, however slightly, in this game.

Looking at Vaimes posts just now I see him saying he will kill Font at 3, again at 5, and again at 8. So twice after deadline, admittedly, and once before it. Certainly enough that it doesn't seem shocking to me that Martin saw it coming. Still suspicious perhaps that he chose to use his power not knowing Font's allegiance, but not surprising he thought of her as a target.

As far as timing, there's no way MartinD had time to get his protection order in before Vaimes pulled the trigger unless there was some kind of coordination. Keep in mind I was reading posts after the fact, but Vaimes pulled the trigger pretty quickly. MartinD had to have made the decision to protect font before that because even if he protected her on D1 (can you protect someone twice?) it wouldn't have automatically carried over to D2.

From Chief's action post.

"FONTISIAN is not allowed to post or vote or take any action until after night actions for Night Two have been posted. She may not be lynched, and any votes on her will be considered invalid until Day Three."

I don't think she can post today.

Back to crossposting... arghhh.

font can't post today after being healed by Medic. But Vaimes didn't say he deduced that font was Duke. He said that font "blatantly claimed Duke" which never happened by any measure.

lol, whoops! That explains that.

I'm heading out for a few hours. Will be back before deadline, but close to it.

But font's own posts actually imply she is a Hunter, not a Duke.

Stepping back from the triangle of craziness... jackal is reading good to me yesterday. I like what I have seen from shoveler, narc, brit and EF. I have question marks with raven, cheeki and grover but I feel like I always tunnel there. Autumn seems consistent with his questions and content but possibly a little pingy. Mrbug has been absent it seems. I want to hear more from him.

Minor timewarp.

Certainly an interesting situation. As we look at it, remember that Martin may have wanted to protect Font either because of a positive village/wolf read or because she was a Duke claimant.

Vaimes's warning... I'm not quite sure what to make of it, but does it seem that it could be worse than alignment-neutral in effect? If you think through the reasons Wolf!Vaimes would have given a warning, you can essentially rule out the point of giving that warning in thread because the complicit actors of Font or Martin could have been in on it in wolfchat.

So I think the whole thing cuts toward Vaimes being good... but now that Vaimes has used his vig shot, he's probably a top candidate for a duking.

I think it also makes it more likely that Martin and Font have the same alignment, good or bad. (Though Good!Martin could have protected Bad!Font, which would stink.)

I gave it a desk-laugh (you know, where you exhale a brief burst through your nose :p ). It's just the timing... she can't defend herself today!

Auxes make things auxward sometimes.

I'm really starting to wonder if Vaimes is our Cultist. His play is still out front the better part of a day later; draws attention and a possible kill his way; ...

I think Font's probably set her posts up so that either D/H is a possible interpretation. How substantial is her D/H alignment in the bigger V/W picture?

I'm torn today. I like lynching into confusing situations like ours to begin to make sense of it, but I seriously think this could be a well set-up plan by Vaimes to draw a ton of focus, rid the Duke medic of his ability, and waste a lynch.

Where do we go from here?

Hang on. I'm a dolt. See ^.

So, chaotic good or chaotic evil for Vaimes, then? :p

(I'll stop the soliloquy for now.)

fontisian claimed Duke here.

"I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay [...] minor win condition be damned [...]."

As in, "I want to kill a Duke toDay even though I am a Duke because reasons."

Seems unlikely, since he would HAVE to be The Blank AND The Cultist.
I think we can rule out Vaimes being the Cultist.