Does anyone have a vote flow diagram for today? I'm not so much interested in it right this minute as I will be at the conclusion of the Day 1 festivities.

As I mentioned earlier, I'm not 100% sold on keeping my vote where I put it this morning. I would, however, need at least some kind of logic to move it to another candidate when my current horse is in the run-off.

As of post 201:

Day 1 vote

PurdueBrad 6 - JAG (140), MartinD (157), J23 (162), Danny (185), Telle (192), ntndeacon (195)
Abe Sargent 6 - hoopsguy (121), PurdueBrad (141), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (170)
Raiders Army 1* - EagleFan (88)
hoopsguy 1 - Abe Sargent (128)
KWhit 1 - Coffee Warlord (136)
ntndeacon 1 - Raiders Army (159)

Still to vote: KWhit, GE


No idea what my schedule is this evening, so I may not be around at deadline.

I need to go back and try to find a better option to vote for than me. So let me do this:

unvote Abe

Quoted to show the Lathum-Lerriuqs vote placement.

How to prove myself good on day 1? Ummmm, like wow, I guess all I can do is point out that there were essentially two runs on me.

Run one: JAG, MartinD, and J23 all vote me in a 22 post span. The votes are all attributed to my recent games as a means of defense.

Run two: The second run takes place in a 10 post span with people moving to "keep things close" as a means of defense and moving off of their initial vote. My guess is that if Abe is a wolf, then there is a wolf here in this mix voting to control the outcome. If Abe is not a wolf, then I would say that there are no wolves in this mix as why put yourself out there in this case.

I'm not arguing to lynch Abe from that, even though I may end up voting there for self-defense. I really do want you guys to find an alternate candidate just because I would like to keep playing.

Well, you did place the second vote on a legit candidate, which according to the LSG theory* means that you are a wolf.

* - No she did not come up with this, but I have coined the term in her name.

You'll note no SD vote from me yet. I'd prefer to go elsewhere.

That's true GE, but at the same time, what would the reaction have been had a thrown out a sixth or seventh candidate? I've had that burn me too and since I didn't have an argument for anyone else, I picked from the menu presented. Darn.

Abe, is Hoops your best choice at this point?

VOTE ABE SARGENT

I would like to keep things interesting. This will make it 7-6 in favor of Abe, but he can switch his vote to PB to tie things back up again. This may tell us something about those who have yet to vote for one of these two candidates. We may also see some suspicious vote changes.

Don't love trying to argue my way out a lynch on a Friday night.

As I noted when I first put my vote in, It was tied at 2 between 4 people, and I had to choose someone. Without any other info, I have no idea what to go on.

Sort of, it was tied at 3 (RA, Abe, and PB) and I understand to some degree not putting up a fourth. Out of curiousity, why me over the other two?

I haven't played with RA ever before, and last game I missed Abe's clue to me that he was Hitler (I was the one that could PM him, and told him what clue to give me). You've lasted until the bitter end a couple games in a row, so I didn't feel too bad about voting for you. I wish I had a better reason for it, but I don't have anything to go off of really atm.

That's cool J23, just want to get some information out there for later.

And honestly, I'm actually quite the opposite of Abe lately. I've made it to the end of 4 of the last 5 games I've played (the one I didn't was a "small" game) so I may be due. I was just hoping this wouldn't be the game that that gets broken.

Nope

Not that there's gonna be a big swing, but this sorta kinda feels like the good old "sorry dude, I already know what you are, and I wanna sound remorseful" wolf comment.

Everybody knows day 1 is a crapshoot, I always wonder about the people who sound too apologetic about their votes.

Yeah, but since PB isn't; voting for me either, it doesnt move into a tie like you claim.

That's kind of what I'm driving at with a couple of the votes on me CW. I know day 1 voting sucks, we all do, but I do get suspicious of certain reasoning. It just sets up one of two things:

Villager doesn't want the guilt of being wrong (which most of us are)

or

Wolf wants a defensible position

There are a couple votes on me that I'm rather intrigued by.

Okay, can we not ever again begin a game on a Friday? I have to believe that the reason so many people aren;t paying attention is because of the day of the week. Friday + Day One must equal sucky.

I will not be voting Abe, even in self-defense. If I get saved, it'll be done by the village and I feel (yeah, the Alan T gut feeling idea) that I have a good reason to be this way.

Seconded there.

Well then, let's go somewhere with our vote.

We are villager-villager right now.

I'll put up somebody (and it is odd why he struck me but he doesn't normally throw a day 1 on me at all):

vote danny

Abe, if you don't like Danny, let me know another place you would prefer.

From my pov, he rarely votes me day 1 because he assumes I have a role or am a wolf, so he usually waits to find out a day or so. His vote just seemed weird because of that.

And yes, it would be easier to jump on to somebody with a vote already but unless Abe deduces something on them that I've missed, I don't have much of a read on ntn, RA, or KWhit. And I love voting Hoopsguy but trying to branch out.

The time difference means that I need to put in my votes earlier than I'd like most of the time - often means that I vote early, and don't have much opportunity to change my vote later on. (I'm only online this late because it's a Friday night, and I don't have to get up quite as early in the morning...)

I really don't like putting a vote on a player for no reason, but that's often the way that things work out on day 1 - there simply isn't enough information out there to be able to make an informed decision.

A day 1 lynch isn't much fun for anyone, but it's part of the game - everyone who plays the game regularly is going to be a day 1 casualty at some point.

I'm about to finish up for the night, so my vote is set - will hopefully make it through the night without a visit from a monster, and see what's going on at the other side of the weekend.

Martin, before you leave, I strongly urge you to go elsewhere than Abe or I.

Okay.

Unvote hoopsguy
Vote Danny

Torn between throwing my currently useless vote somewhere else or waiting awhile longer.

There aren't really many other viable options available - either vote for Danny and be part of what appears to be a pretty sizable run, or bring in a new candidate, with somewhat limited time for others to shift their votes that way...

What happens tomorrow if you and Abe manage to convince the village to go in a different direction, and the person that ends up getting lynched is a villager? (Yes, I know that this is me being a bit sceptical - sort of comes as standard in the line of work I'm in :p )

There are 7 of us here plus a guest (assuming wolf) but that is enough to generate some movement I hope.

Unvote Abe
Vote Danny

Danny I am really, really sorry but I want to see if this develops anything. If you are good I am so sorry or if you have a role I am so sory. even if you are a wolf, I am so sorry you will get busted day 1. I will feel really, really bad that you can't continue on.

I'm dragging butt at the moment, and need to get dinner started. Can we get a quick count again with all this push to Danny?

I'll do a vote count, give me a sec...

As of post 235:

Day 1 vote

PurdueBrad 6 - JAG (140), MartinD (157), J23 (162), Danny (185), Telle (192), ntndeacon (195)
Abe Sargent 5 - hoopsguy (121), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (170), Lerruiqs (199), GoldenEagle (210)
Raiders Army 1* - EagleFan (88)
hoopsguy 1 - Abe Sargent (128)
KWhit 1 - Coffee Warlord (136)
ntndeacon 1 - Raiders Army (159)
Danny 3- PB (224), Abe (226), Lathum (233)

Still to vote: KWhit

Double-checking quickly, but that looks right to me.

ACTUALLY FIXED HERE.

Does anyone think both Abe and PB are wolves? That's my first thought, seeing this cooperation and lack of willingness to vote one another. It's suspicious on one level, but it also asks me to believe that, straight off of luck, we have hit the 5-6% chance of having a wolf-wolf Day 1 showdown. That's a bit difficult to believe.

It makes me think maybe my vote is better used elsewhere than either of them, at least for today.

I don't know if Danny si the choice, though. PB is right that Danny (and others) calls him out for the "always has a role/is a wolf" thing, so a quick vote is a curiosity. But is it enough to lynch someone? Especially something that is really said sorta tongue in cheek?

As far as I am concerned, it gives us a better chance than now. How many times have you seen VvV later on Day One, and no one moves off, and then the other V is voted off a day or two later "Just in Case" even though they were likely scanned by the seer. I'd prefer this.

So it is 6 on me, 5 on Abe, and 3 on Danny with throw-aways (don't love that term so no offense intended) on RA, KWhit, and ntn plus no vote from KWhit. I would like to see some movement here (obviously).

Hmm.

If it were Wolf v Wolf, I would sac one of us so the other looks good, avoids scans, gets some trust for a few days, etc.

Chief, I haven't seen anything in the PB/Abe posts that has convinced me that there is a need for bringing in a third candidate. Obviously this will sound really dumb at some point if it turns out that they are both villagers. But for now I'm only considering moving my vote from Abe to PB rather than to "Candidate X".

I think this is my 3rd or 4th game now. I guess I'll get it out of my system soon enough, but I do hate voting when I have zero info. The thing I've learned over those games is that no matter what you say, people find a way to spin it where you're being suspiscious. PB asked me my reasoning, so I gave it. If he ends up a villager, I feel bad about it.

The way he's reacted to being the lead vote getter reinforces my doubts about voting for him honestly.

Maybe, but that's a pretty aggressive move for so early in the game.

Right now, torn between voting Abe to tie it up and see who flinches, or voting Danny to get it very close to a 3 way tie.

So how differently do you think PB would play this if he is the wolf in this little rundown?

J23 can attest to the fact that I would in fact sacrifice a wolf if it would buy me (or any wolf) trust so this is a mistake, honestly.

Ifm off to get some food.