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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

QuikSand 03-10-2020 09:21 AM

Quote:

Going to be incredibly bummed if they do cancel.

Don't mean to single you out, but we collectively have to get past this frame of mind. We're going to lose travel plans, abandon prepaid things, forfeit deposits, lose entertainment, break traditions, and lots of things like that for a while. That is what is going to happen. Pushback isn't going to prove helpful. We need to save our neighbors' lives, that is literally what this is about.

bob 03-10-2020 09:28 AM

To be fair, he said he was going to be bummed, not that he was going to break quarantine.

JPhillips 03-10-2020 09:51 AM

Quote:

Coronavirus prevention signs go up at immigration courts.

Trump Admin orders them removed.

Outrage ensues.

Trump admin reverses course and allows flyers.

Hard to see this as anything other than trying to kill immigrants.

NobodyHere 03-10-2020 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267755)
Hard to see this as anything other than trying to kill immigrants.


I'm actually surprised Trump isn't being louder in using the virus as an excuse to block all illegal immigration, refugees applicants and legal immigrants from certain countries.

Arles 03-10-2020 10:36 AM

I always wonder about the mortality rates for new illnesses. I feel like they start out high because the milder cases never get reported. If 20 people get it and it looks like a cold/mild flu to 8 of them - how do you know those 8 had it? Throw in the sitgma of having it and my guess is the number of cases are extremely under-reported at this point. I'm not saying that we shouldn't take reasonable precautions to minimize the impact, but shutting down half the US seems a little extreme.

Ryche 03-10-2020 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob (Post 3267754)
To be fair, he said he was going to be bummed, not that he was going to break quarantine.


Yeah, I'll understand, just be bummed. More concerned about my trip to Scotland this summer. I'm lucky that, if it comes to it, I can easily stay home for work whether on sick leave or teleworking.

NobodyHere 03-10-2020 10:44 AM

My coworkers are spreading rumors that my city now has the virus. I don't know if it's fake news or what.

JonInMiddleGA 03-10-2020 10:51 AM

Leaving Aldi this morning I coughed -- on my own cigarette mind you -- and I thought m'fers in the parking lot were going to run into traffic in terror. Given that the closest person was at least 20 YARDS away, I choked worse while trying to cough & laugh at the same time.

Lathum 03-10-2020 11:00 AM

Ivy League just canceled it’s conference tournament. Yale is awarded the bid.

molson 03-10-2020 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3267759)
I always wonder about the mortality rates for new illnesses. I feel like they start out high because the milder cases never get reported. If 20 people get it and it looks like a cold/mild flu to 8 of them - how do you know those 8 had it? Throw in the sitgma of having it and my guess is the number of cases are extremely under-reported at this point. I'm not saying that we shouldn't take reasonable precautions to minimize the impact, but shutting down half the US seems a little extreme.


I'm also wondering how to interpret the number of reported cases. We know that South Korea is testing the most, we also believe that they were "hit hard" by this - and that they may have stabilized and passed the peak of it now. They only found 7,500 cases so - about 0.15% of their population. That's a lot of negative test results when they're testing 10,000 per day. That % applied to to the U.S. population comes out to 45,000 people - and we know we're testing way, way less and we'll have many more cases that go unreported.

South Korea isn't done with the virus yet, many infected people must have gone un-reported there as well, and they may have been better at stopping the spread to begin with (though I think U.S. private industry and the worried public end up slowing the spread more than a government ever could outside of a police state), but, the prevalence does seem a little lower than you'd think from the headlines, or what I expected at this point.

Edit: And while I 100% want to see some brand of universal healthcare in the U.S. someday, I wonder if medical facilities are more easily overwhelmed in places where going to the doctor is a more ubiquitous part of life that everydody just does when they're sick. Americans prefer to stay home, it's kind of become a part of the culture that's propped up by the financial disaster that can come from entering a hospital's front door. That shortens our life span, but it may make us more resilient where the #1 potential issue is hospitals being overwhelmed.

spleen1015 03-10-2020 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3267759)
I always wonder about the mortality rates for new illnesses. I feel like they start out high because the milder cases never get reported. If 20 people get it and it looks like a cold/mild flu to 8 of them - how do you know those 8 had it? Throw in the sitgma of having it and my guess is the number of cases are extremely under-reported at this point. I'm not saying that we shouldn't take reasonable precautions to minimize the impact, but shutting down half the US seems a little extreme.


This is probably my hopefulness but I think the SK numbers are telling. They are testing a lot of people, finding a lot of people with the virus and not a lot of those people are dying.

I think only the most severe people are getting tested so we have no idea who really has it.

I don't know how much caution is enough.

I would be bummed if this impacted HS softball season, but since that would not be looking out for my neighbors I guess I won't be.

PilotMan 03-10-2020 11:55 AM

It's severely hammering my industry right now. I think we could handle a draw down on this magnitude for a couple months, but if it continues any longer people will be out of work. You're probably going to see some of the more precariously positioned companies go out of business as a result.

Lathum 03-10-2020 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3267771)
It's severely hammering my industry right now. I think we could handle a draw down on this magnitude for a couple months, but if it continues any longer people will be out of work. You're probably going to see some of the more precariously positioned companies go out of business as a result.


Could we see an auto industry style bail out or would Trumps pride prevent that

NobodyHere 03-10-2020 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267772)
Could we see an auto industry style bail out or would Trumps pride prevent that


That depends, are the people being bailed out democrats or republicans?

Ryche 03-10-2020 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267772)
Could we see an auto industry style bail out or would Trumps pride prevent that


Include the hotel industry and he'll be all over it.

Lathum 03-10-2020 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryche (Post 3267774)
Include the hotel industry and he'll be all over it.


He is already talking about that. The corruption never ends.

IlliniCub 03-10-2020 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3267759)
I always wonder about the mortality rates for new illnesses. I feel like they start out high because the milder cases never get reported. If 20 people get it and it looks like a cold/mild flu to 8 of them - how do you know those 8 had it? Throw in the sitgma of having it and my guess is the number of cases are extremely under-reported at this point. I'm not saying that we shouldn't take reasonable precautions to minimize the impact, but shutting down half the US seems a little extreme.

The early mortality rates of h1n1 pandemic were grossly over estimated if I remember correctly. I think the south Korean model is good to go by, and looks like maybe it should be the blueprint for dealing with this. Mass testing and deal with cases early.

JPhillips 03-10-2020 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryche (Post 3267774)
Include the hotel industry and he'll be all over it.


He's apparently also going to try to bail out oil and shale folks. Dems need their own bill so they can fight all the corruption coming with Trump's bailouts.

Ryche 03-10-2020 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryche (Post 3267761)
Yeah, I'll understand, just be bummed. More concerned about my trip to Scotland this summer. I'm lucky that, if it comes to it, I can easily stay home for work whether on sick leave or teleworking.


Well, it has been cancelled. Probably the smart call.

Mike Lowe 03-10-2020 01:08 PM

Yesterday, Israel's Prime Minister has put a 14-day quarantine on all travelers, including locals (who may home-quarantine).

Thus ends our trip overseas which is a bit of a relief as I really didn't want to make the call to go or not on my own.

AlexB 03-10-2020 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3267771)
It's severely hammering my industry right now. I think we could handle a draw down on this magnitude for a couple months, but if it continues any longer people will be out of work. You're probably going to see some of the more precariously positioned companies go out of business as a result.


FlyBe here has already gone, but they were in dire straits already

RainMaker 03-10-2020 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267776)
He is already talking about that. The corruption never ends.

No can't be true, socialism is bad. They tell me all the time.

Edward64 03-10-2020 01:51 PM

One mile radius quarantine with National Guard.

If this was a zombie movie, it'll be doomed to failure but ... interesting test case for those that say quarantines won't work in the US.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...11d28c8f83c0fd
Quote:

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said a containment area will be set up in the city of New Rochelle as Westchester County works to stop the spread of coronavirus. Schools and facilities within will be closed for two weeks, and the National Guard will deploy to this area to help support the community.

Health Commissioner Dr. Howard Zucker said the area is a circle with a radius of about one mile.

Starting on Thursday, facilities and schools within the area will be closed for two weeks. The National Guard will help deliver food to homes and clean public spaces in the containment area, Cuomo said, describing the plan as a "dramatic action."

This will go on through March 25.

RainMaker 03-10-2020 01:53 PM

Also seems like South Korea is the model for how to handle this. They're already seeing a drop in new cases and look to have it contained for now.

cartman 03-10-2020 02:24 PM


Lathum 03-10-2020 03:06 PM

Hearing the governor of Ohio recommending all indoor sports events played with no spectators.

Edward64 03-10-2020 03:41 PM

And now for some light humor ...

French mayor defends Smurf rally after outcry over virus
Quote:

Rennes (France) (AFP) - The mayor of a small French town on Tuesday defended hosting a record-breaking gathering of 3,500 people dressed as Smurfs at the weekend, after accusations that the event increased the risks of spreading the coronavirus.

"We must not stop living... it was the chance to say that we are alive," mayor Patrick Leclerc of Landerneau in western France told AFP.

NobodyHere 03-10-2020 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267779)
He's apparently also going to try to bail out oil and shale folks. Dems need their own bill so they can fight all the corruption coming with Trump's bailouts.


Nah, the Dems are asking for things like paid sick leave and free virus testing.

Edward64 03-10-2020 04:21 PM

Need more details on the "corruption" re: possible "bailouts", haven't read it in the MSM so probably just Russian bots influencing twitter and FB.

Absolutely right thing to do to help out some industries, don't see anything wrong with something similar to auto companies bailout during the GR. Definitely airlines. Shale industry, premature right now I think but if SA & Russia extends the fight and threatens all/most of shale shutting down, yeah I'm for a bailout.

JPhillips 03-10-2020 04:23 PM

MGM is closing Vegas buffets.

molson 03-10-2020 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3267788)


I'd honestly feel better if there were some medium numbers involved.

Warhammer 03-10-2020 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267798)
Need more details on the "corruption" re: possible "bailouts", haven't read it in the MSM so probably just Russian bots influencing twitter and FB.

Absolutely right thing to do to help out some industries, don't see anything wrong with something similar to auto companies bailout during the GR. Definitely airlines. Shale industry, premature right now I think but if SA & Russia extends the fight and threatens all/most of shale shutting down, yeah I'm for a bailout.


Shale will survive, it will be painful, but what happens is the bigger companies buy the smaller ones to get their leases. Shale is a lot different from the airlines and auto companies in that regard. The one shale company that might be in trouble with all this is Chesapeake, but they were in trouble before all of this started.

Edward64 03-10-2020 04:56 PM

Watching the coronavirus briefing right now.

Pence was pretty good other than tossing in "the President" obeisance comments once in a while.

Fauci is good, telling it the way it is. All the nodding heads behind him are distracting though.

No Trump so far. Hopefully voted off the island because he's not helping to keep people calm.


EDIT: Surgeon General is irrelevant. Fauci is better

Lathum 03-10-2020 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267798)
Need more details on the "corruption" re: possible "bailouts", haven't read it in the MSM so probably just Russian bots influencing twitter and FB.

Absolutely right thing to do to help out some industries, don't see anything wrong with something similar to auto companies bailout during the GR. Definitely airlines. Shale industry, premature right now I think but if SA & Russia extends the fight and threatens all/most of shale shutting down, yeah I'm for a bailout.


He literally said on FOX news this morning he was considering bail outs for hotels. I saw it at the gym. Unless the CC was wrong.

Edward64 03-10-2020 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267811)
He literally said on FOX news this morning he was considering bail outs for hotels. I saw it at the gym. Unless the CC was wrong.


So where is the "corruption" on bail outs?

Lathum 03-10-2020 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267812)
So where is the "corruption" on bail outs?


You can't connect the dots that he owns many, many hotels?

Edward64 03-10-2020 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267813)
You can't connect the dots that he owns many, many hotels?


So you would penalize 99% of the hospitality industry because Trump owns some hotels?

Lathum 03-10-2020 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267814)
So you would penalize 99% of the hospitality industry because Trump owns some hotels?


I never said that, but you don't find it a bit odd that hotels are the first thing he referenced?

how about since he is so benevolent and tells us every chance he gets that he donates his salary, any bail outs get directly dispersed to the employees?

Edward64 03-10-2020 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267815)
I never said that, but you don't find it a bit odd that hotels are the first thing he referenced?

how about since he is so benevolent and tells us every chance he gets that he donates his salary, any bail outs get directly dispersed to the employees?


Okay. I thought you were saying that bailouts to the hotel industry was "corrupt" with your statement below.

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryche View Post
Include the hotel industry and he'll be all over it.

He is already talking about that. The corruption never ends.

RainMaker 03-10-2020 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267814)
So you would penalize 99% of the hospitality industry because Trump owns some hotels?


It's corporate welfare. No one is being penalized if they don't receive it. Sorry those businesses weren't prepared for a downturn.

Edward64 03-10-2020 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3267818)
It's corporate welfare. No one is being penalized if they don't receive it. Sorry those businesses weren't prepared for a downturn.


Hopefully tonight will give you some closure.

Let the extremism go, give up the radical Sanderism. Re-join the Joe-Hillary and like moderates where some of your goals may be achieved with some compromise.

PilotMan 03-10-2020 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267815)
how about since he is so benevolent and tells us every chance he gets that he donates his salary, any bail outs get directly dispersed to the employees?





These were the two headlines email out from the WH today:


Trumpís Style of Leadership is a Plus in This Kind of Crisis



and



President Trump secures no-cost virus testing for Americans



Every day is literally how awesome trump is. It's very little to do with America itself, it's all trump all the time.

RainMaker 03-10-2020 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267820)
Hopefully tonight will give you some closure.

Let the extremism go, give up the radical Sanderism. Re-join the Joe-Hillary and like moderates where some of your goals may be achieved with some compromise.


Just explaining to you that no one is being penalized for not receiving welfare. It is not a given right to receive a welfare check from the government every time your business has a slight downturn.

You're the one touting nationalization at every turn (well only when a special someone proposes it). I'm touting the moderate capitalist stance that if your business does poorly, that's on you.

PilotMan 03-10-2020 06:12 PM

The company put out some guidance today and other than some financial specific details this is the huge number that sticks out:

Quote:

Communicated that May schedule reductions are expected to be at least 20% and announced plans to proactively evaluate and cancel flights on a rolling 90-day basis until there are signs of a recovery in demand.


A 20% cut to capacity, even in the short term is massive. Those are 9/11 level draw downs. Rolling cancellations into the future is necessary, but could be scary if this goes months and months.

RainMaker 03-10-2020 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267779)
He's apparently also going to try to bail out oil and shale folks. Dems need their own bill so they can fight all the corruption coming with Trump's bailouts.


:lol::lol:

I thought you were kidding.

White House weighs assistance for oil and gas industry | TheHill

Pretty sure we'll get an airline bailout and one for the hospitality industry. I know people will think he's doing it for himself, but it probably has more to do with winning Florida. That's a big industry in that state which will likely be close in November.

Same philosophy when Obama cut a welfare check to the auto industry to win Michigan.

PilotMan 03-10-2020 06:17 PM

Wait, I thought the WH position was that low oil prices were GREAT for everyone?!?!?!?!

RainMaker 03-10-2020 06:19 PM

Also, if it is bad, can't he get on the phone with MBS and sort this out? What's the point of kissing Saudi ass all the time if we can't tell them to knock it the fuck off when they mess with our economy?

PilotMan 03-10-2020 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3267830)
Also, if it is bad, can't he get on the phone with MBS and sort this out? What's the point of kissing Saudi ass all the time if we can't tell them to knock it the fuck off when they mess with our economy?



He'd probably have to ship him another journalist to get any help.

Radii 03-10-2020 06:31 PM

I wish everyone would just stop arguing with the Russian Concern Troll Bot

Radii 03-10-2020 06:37 PM

Anyway, back to the topic of low death rates for younger people in general:

Coronavirus: How to protect yourself if you have underlying conditions


Death rates for cardiovascular disease 10.5%, Diabetes 7.3%, Chronic Respiratory Disease 6.3%, Hypertension 6%

These numbers would obviously change from higher sample sizes, but its more than enough for me as a diabetic to think about my own decisions from a different reference point than "you're not over 60, you're fine"

I think the idea that for the many folks who survive, some will have a serious bout with this, and if you've got heart disease, diabetes or some of these other things, the odds of serious illness is definitely going to be higher.


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