I do appreciate you not using "white" nationalism and eliminating the racist undertones. Yes, admittedly I call myself a nationalist and as a legal immigrant, proud of it.

I like the "slight" downturn comment. Let's agree to disagree or move it to the mano vs mano thread.

Nationalization is an economic term that has nothing to do with what you're talking about. There's nothing to agree or disagree about. You're talking about a different subject because you don't understand what these words mean.

Ah you are right. I read too fast and assumed we were back to your favorite subject - it's all about skin color. Only the brown ones though, haven't seen much concern about the yellow ones.

Again, glad to do this in mano vs mano if you want so we don't bore everyone else.

So South Korea has a rate of 0.7% which seems to be a goal most countries should strive for. I'm curious to fully see what they're doing different. Are their rates for the elderly the same and they are just limiting the exposure to them?

From what I've gathered, testing has been a huge part of their strategy. Find the people infected and get them isolated, especially from the people most at risk.

Seeing as how this virus just hammers older people, I wonder if there should be an edict soon for people over say 60 years old to stay indoors and avoid as much contact with others as possible. Obviously you have to make trips to the store and so forth, but skipping unnecessary events/contact would be beneficial.

I'm just surprised at the lack of suggestions coming from leaders. It seems there are random closing of events and a city here or there cancelling something. But nothing from the top saying "you should stop doing this if you're at risk" for the next few weeks. Or an edict saying "we are going to test every single person who works at a senior center or in a public building" or something. I'm just looking for a plan while it seems everyone is just looking around and throwing shit against a wall.

I know it's early and looking way too far ahead, but has anyone read any good estimates on how long things may be bad here in the USA? I'm supposed to be getting married in May and it's looking more grim each day.

@Purdue:

We're closed tomorrow and then on-line until at least the end of March.

That is rough. Sorry to hear.

I don't think anyone has much of a guess yet since it hasn't peaked in the US.

Maybe get married officially in a small ceremony and then, after this has passed, then do a big wedding with all the guests?

Unless you're having a massive ceremony I think people would appreciate the the chance to celebrate something like a wedding after, or during, all these disruptions to our lives. Just budget for hand sanitizer.

IU and Purdeue shut down their campuses, One of the biggest HS shuts down for 3 weeks.

Yeah, this is getting serious.

And the entire country of Italy is closed.

Wow

Nevermind. Saint Louis U has suspended in person classes.

This reminds me of National Lampoon's Vacation: "They don't close Florida"

Long timer who hasn’t posted in many years but have lurked. Been following this for a while and have been concerned. My wife and I are supposed to go to a cousins wedding in less than 2 weeks. It’s about and hour and 20 min flight and I am basically resigned to not going, however, my brother texted the bride tonight and it’s pretty clear she doesn’t think this is a big deal. My brother is local but he said he wouldn’t fly. My wife isn’t that concerned and wants to go. My mother, who we’d be staying with is over 70 and concerned with us staying with her and also concerned about going. My wife’s parents are over 70 with pre existing conditions so more at risk and would be watching our kids while at the wedding. I’m in my 40s and fairly healthy so I guess lower risk, but like others said could be putting others at risk by being in their presence. Oh and also live in a county that has just closed school for 2 days

Curious what some of you would do.

Is driving an option?

Flying to Florida in late March. Celebrating my Dads 90th birthday. We have recently brought up the virus around our areas. Which is Iowa and St Louis. He live in Florida.

he said bring it on. He told us he has lived his life and if it happens it happens. Not sure what to think of that. But then again, that is him.

My brother mentioned that as well. It’s about a 10 hour drive each way that I’ve done many times (and dread each time) but we are going for just for a weekend that’s why we were flying. Do you think driving significantly lowers risk?

I would not panic yet. Im flying to Florida at the end of the month as I mentioned earlier. Airlines are taking extraordinary measures to ensure safety from the virus. I would wait to buy tickets they will be super cheap.

Big time. Airports and airplanes are petri dishes.

They can take all the measures they want, if the guy in 13B has it and you are in 12B you could be screwed.

Considering if you fly and are within a couple of rows of somebody coughing throughout the flight, plus the risk of touching something infected at the airport either end or on the plane, I'd say that yeah. The risk is much higher flying. You can probably help with the touching something and getting it by practicing good hygiene but you can't do shit about sitting next to somebody who might have it coughing all up in your shared air space.

Now it still wouldn't stop me doing it, I just flew to Montreal and back and so far I'm fine (and nobody on the flight was coughing or sneezing their lungs out) but if you are concerned about minimizing risk then yeah, driving in your car and going straight through is going to be a good way to do that.

You're probably fine, but the parents and in-laws are a real concern. Without a clear negative test I wouldn't see them and I would strongly urge them not to go to the wedding.

What measures are they taking? Having flown yesterday there's absolutely nothing being done out of the ordinary.

E3 has been cancelled for this year because of the coronavirus

Southwest is a big airline in St. Louis. They spent 7 hours the other day disinfecting their planes. Im not sure what else they can do.

Take disinfecting wipes with you and wipe down your seat and tray.

How important is the event?

I hear you, we would be flying Southwest. It’s not that important but I’ve missed family events in the past so feel like the bad guy again but this is different and things could be a lot worse in a week so we’ll see. Just texted my cousin in NY and he’s not going now

Which will make absolutely no difference if someone around him is coughing up a lung. Or someone who used the restroom before him coughed and touched the doorhandle, etc...

At what point do we go Italy then?

Do we live our lives or do we live in fear?

You social distance and practice better hygiene until the virus slows it's spread. You can choose to be safer for awhile and still live your life.

I hear you, we would be flying Southwest. It’s not that important but I’ve missed family events in the past so feel like the bad guy again but this is different and things could be a lot worse in a week so we’ll see. Just texted my cousin in NY and he’s not going now

Going to San Antonio in 2 weeks, will be at Randolph AFB for a Freedom Flyer ceremony for my Dad. There will be a lot of older people there, certainly a high risk group, maybe a 50-75 people over 3 days. Nothing from them about cancelling. But the next week after is an annual reunion in the same city with a lot, lot of older high risk people and younger, and much bigger. There have been questions about that cancelling, but they are still pressing on for now.



NKU sent out an email earlier this week that they are considering switching to online classes for the rest of the semester. Which should make my son's Public Speaking class interesting.



I'm beginning to have questions about how far this snowball will roll? Are we looking at losing graduation this year? Prom? I don't see how, at this rate of change of human behavior, that we don't see revenue just fall off a cliff and take GDP with it.

Daughter is graduating this year from HS. Wife and I are pretty sure they will cancel the ceremony and daughter is okay with it.

We aren't even at the peak/inflection point yet. So unless good news on vaccine comes out soon, we will go into a recession (unfortunately, not one that we can solely blame Trump on).

I saw your other note on 20% decline in flights. Was this for domestic and international? I'm guessing domestic as I think international would be greater.

I'm trying to understand how we might get to 50% of the population infected n the worst case scenario and the benefit of quarantine with past exposure to people who are diagnosed. In fact, my company has asked people to work from home if they travel to US locations that have confirmed causes even with no symptoms. Therefore, i have what might be a dumb question about this disease.

If I've been exposed and have no symptoms yet can I spread it to someone else?

I realize on of the biggest problems is that 1) It is hard to distinguish between cold/flu/coronavirus and 2) people in this country don't feel comfortable staying home when sick.

Those two things make it likely that this can spread, but I'm wondering if just having people stay home when sick is the biggest thing we can do and having everyone stay home is excessive.

International have already been, and are looking to get cut more as so much depends on what other countries are doing. That is a straight across the board number, taking all flights into account. We have a big international market, but it's tiny when you figure total number of flights. We might make 15-20 wide body departures a day (I'm probably overestimating, but just go with it) out of Newark, but we're doing that in an hour domestic. So yes, international is probably greater as a percentage, but across the board, that's a massive hit and most of it domestic. It's not a 20% cut to capacity, it's a 20% cut to flights.

Yale is telling students to stay home after spring break (which started last Saturday) and is moving all classes online. CT has declared a state of emergency.

The wording from CDC is below. It says "might" with some reports.

Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC

Quote:

Can someone spread the virus without being sick? People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest). Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

I do struggle if its excessive or not (e.g. see NY where they have quarantined a 1 mile radius).

Fauci said more people are going to get infected and more people are going to die. However, they want to "flatten" the curve. I take that to mean, people are still going to get infected, people are going to die but ideally over a longer period of time, slow it down. I think this makes sense to help make sure the hospitals etc. are not overloaded in your area at one time.

So testing, remote work, quarantine for those hot spots, and voluntary self-quarantine are our main weapons now. We also have education of the public on social distancing and good hygiene I guess. I think most in the US can handle 2, maybe 4 weeks of quarantine. If more is needed, my guess is that will be very problematic.

Is it excessive? Not for the older folks with pre-existing. Yes for the younger folks. Unfortunately we mix together and therefore, probably not excessive right now.

Yes. That is one of the problems is that people can show no symptoms yet still spread the disease to others. And without a test, it is hard/impossible to distinguish from the flu or a regular old cold.

Thanks. I realize this is idealism speaking, but if everyone who is sicks stays home, those of us who are healthy and practice good hygiene should be at very low risk of catching it and then passing it on to those who are higher risk.

I think the biggest challenge is people who might have the disease believe it is just a cold or the flu and continue to mix with the general population where I can come in contact with it.

I'm pretty sure that Barak Obama is to blame for all this.

That's not what's happening. Nobody is restricted from movement. Large gatherings are canceled and the National Guard is there to help clean and deliver meals to those in need. People can come and go as they please right now.

At the very least it is a Dem plot to crash the stock market on Trump's watch so that they can win in November.

The issue with those cases in New Rochelle is they can be traced back to 1 person and they don't know how that person got it.

50 cases can be linked back to that 1 person.

Live look into NY right now.............

Not sure if I posted this or not, I fall into this category.

Started a new job on 2-10, flew out to Orange County, CA. The next week flew out to Spokane, WA. Started fighting something that week, figured it was a mild cold. Next week was in Oklahoma City for two days. Last week, was in Charlottle for a day, still fighting the cold, but it has started to settle into upper lungs. Home on Wednesday, it blows up, 100 degree fever, feel like crap, coughing up stuff, sicker than I have been in years for 3 days, not bedridden, but close to it. Saturday, things clear up a ton, but I still have a bit of a cough. Sunday, feel 85-90%, still have a cough but feel well.

Flash forward to today, probably 75-80%, still have the cough, throat is sore because it is raw, at night I have some coughing fits. Wife and kids are fine, no one has gotten anything despite me fighting something for 4 weeks. I don't know if I should go to the doctor or not.

I probably had a bout of the flu, but this is just lingering. Not running a fever, dry (at this point) cough, bit of congestion, not much of anything at this point, just a little run down, that's typical for the common flu, right? Is there anything else I should be doing?

Oh yeah, other complicating factor, new insurance kicked in on 3-1, still don't have my insurance cards, insurance company and work are point at each other...

I would say 100% you should go to the doctor

I confess, I don't understand all these closures and cancellations and general panic.

Reasons being:

1. The flu is potentially deadly, especially to the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Tens of thousands die from the flu in the US every year. So just how much MORE deadly is this strain? That to me is the single, most important piece of info, and I'm shocked that after searching for a while online, I couldn't find that info front and center.

2. California just announced 3 TSA workers tested positive. That, to me, seems like the last straw. This thing isn't contained and can't be, no matter how much stuff we cancel. So, what good are we really doing by cancelling flights and events and stuff?

I'm not a conspiracy theorist skeptic, just confused. I don't understand why this genie, which appears to be inescapably out of the bottle, is any more scary than the other genies that are already walking around every day.

The WHO has been publishing numbers. World-wide it has been showing a just under 4% mortality rate, which is 8 times higher than the flu. In Italy the mortality rate is closer to 6%.

We have no idea what the mortality rate is because not everyone who gets it is reported. It seems to be more deadly than the flu, at least for older people.

It can't be contained fully. But it's not like a zombie scenario where if one person gets out of quarantine everybody'd fucked again. The goal is just to slow it. Slowing it eases pressure on the hospitals. Slowing it will also reduce the number of people who get it. The virus needs new hosts to keep going. It's harder and harder for it to find new hosts when there's fewer people in big crowds, fewer people using bad hygiene, and more people around who have already had it if the spread is more slow and gradual.

There's a fear of the unknown that people are going to process differently based on their own personal assessment and risk tolerance. If you want to feel optimistic, look to South Korea and even China, where it looks like the worst has passed. If you want to be more pessimistic, look to Italy, where hospitals are overwhelmed and everyday life has been hugely effected.

I lean optimistic, it's just who I am. The situation in Italy sucks but even there, the death toll doesn't equal the panic level and worst case scenarios you see out there. And this is the most aggressive private industry and public response to something like this I've ever seen. People are taking precautions, washing their hands; travel and events are being cancelled. That's all going to help a ton. The effect on the economy is big, but, people are going to be so psyched when it's over and we'll bounce back. It's an unique thing we're all going through but it will be OK.

You can get vaccinated for the flu, granted it isn't 100% but it is something.

We really don't know much about the virus, but by all accounts this is far more deadly than the flu, especially for the vulnerable population.

Studies indicate the average number of people an infected passes it to is much higher than the flu

You can be contagious and infected for up to 2 weeks with no symptoms

So basically early studies show it is deadlier than the flu, spreads to more people, and is far more deceptive because you walk around for 2 weeks not knowing you have it.

People comparing this to the flu are simply ignoring the info we have.