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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

molson 03-11-2020 03:58 PM

Looks like both of our upcoming trips are in big jeopardy. Denmark got hit hard the last few days and is taking aggressive measures.

Anybody doing anything fun with time they took off for trip plans that are now cancelled? There's probably a bunch of Airbnb cancellations, maybe we'll try to find something drive-able that would be fun to do with the dogs. My girlfriend suggested we do some deep spring cleaning, so I need to come up with a better idea fast.

spleen1015 03-11-2020 04:02 PM

The dominoes are starting guys.

Lathum 03-11-2020 04:06 PM

Am I crazy for wanting to keep about 10K in cash around the house in case I need quick money?

PilotMan 03-11-2020 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015 (Post 3268072)
The dominoes are starting guys.



Kind of my thoughts as well. The next couple weeks could be really, really interesting.

Ben E Lou 03-11-2020 04:08 PM

Trump to address the nation at 9pm.

Edward64 03-11-2020 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3268074)
Am I crazy for wanting to keep about 10K in cash around the house in case I need quick money?


Why? I don't see any indications that banks will collapse (yet).

Edward64 03-11-2020 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3268077)
Trump to address the nation at 9pm.


I saw him on TV with a bunch of Wall St. and Financials folks. If he didn't have all the baggage, thought he did okay other than at the end when he refused to take a CNN reporter's question ... "CNN, fake news, we're done".

tarcone 03-11-2020 04:30 PM

The University of Iowa has shut down. Virtual classes only after spring break.

Washington University in St. Louis has shut down.

If Universities start shutting down, Im not sure how they have any of the Winter sports final tourneys.

Edward64 03-11-2020 04:38 PM

Flattening the curve graphic

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/scie...fight-n1155636


tarcone 03-11-2020 04:46 PM

Just saw that March madness games will have no fans. Just family and essential staff.

NCAA: March Madness will be played without fans in attendance | ksdk.com

RainMaker 03-11-2020 04:47 PM

I'm surprised the Secret Service hasn't stepped in at these events yet. Maybe they've tried to no avail but considering his age, seems dangerous as hell.


Lathum 03-11-2020 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3268078)
Why? I don't see any indications that banks will collapse (yet).


Can't get money if all bank employees are sick. What if I need to pay someone off for something?

ISiddiqui 03-11-2020 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3268088)
Can't get money if all bank employees are sick. What if I need to pay someone off for something?


Venmo or Cash App may do. Unless you want to keep it super quiet, in that case, you'd have the cash on hand anyways.

Ben E Lou 03-11-2020 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3268079)
I saw him on TV with a bunch of Wall St. and Financials folks. If he didn't have all the baggage, thought he did okay other than at the end when he refused to take a CNN reporter's question ... "CNN, fake news, we're done".

The tone of his tweets changed fairly dramatically this afternoon as well. Makes me wonder if the medical folks finally got through to him.

Radii 03-11-2020 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3268074)
Am I crazy for wanting to keep about 10K in cash around the house in case I need quick money?


Not something I've thought about or that I've read of anyone in my social circles thinking about at all. That doesn't necessarily mean you're crazy, its just nowhere near my radar yet. I can go from my Discover Online Banking to my local bank to the ATM in just a couple days.

Lathum 03-11-2020 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3268092)
Not something I've thought about or that I've read of anyone in my social circles thinking about at all. That doesn't necessarily mean you're crazy, its just nowhere near my radar yet. I can go from my Discover Online Banking to my local bank to the ATM in just a couple days.


Can't get money from an ATM is the people who stock it and service it are sick, or if there is no power.

I am talking real societal breakdown shit, not just cash on hand. That being said cash won't mean much if society breaks down. Medicine and guns would likely be the new currency. I floated the idea to my wife of getting a handgun and she wasn't on board.

tarcone 03-11-2020 04:59 PM

BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! AND TOILET PAPER!

Radii 03-11-2020 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3268091)
The tone of his tweets changed fairly dramatically this afternoon as well. Makes me wonder if the medical folks finally got through to him.


I don't think we've seen any evidence that this kind of thing would last for more than an afternoon for him, if Fox & Friends contradicts his medical experts tomorrow morning, all bets are off. Absolutely terrified letting this guy address the nation to try to encourage awareness/some action but discourage a panic.

Lathum 03-11-2020 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3268095)
I don't think we've seen any evidence that this kind of thing would last for more than an afternoon for him, if Fox & Friends contradicts his medical experts tomorrow morning, all bets are off. Absolutely terrified letting this guy address the nation to try to encourage awareness/some action but discourage a panic.


Every time he opens his stupid mouth he makes it worse.

Vegas Vic 03-11-2020 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3268094)
BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! AND TOILET PAPER!


BITCOIN!!!

Edward64 03-11-2020 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3268094)
BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! AND TOILET PAPER!


Actually, some would say silver is better. But definitely toilet paper!

Atocep 03-11-2020 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by revrew (Post 3267959)
I confess, I don't understand all these closures and cancellations and general panic.

Reasons being:

1. The flu is potentially deadly, especially to the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Tens of thousands die from the flu in the US every year. So just how much MORE deadly is this strain? That to me is the single, most important piece of info, and I'm shocked that after searching for a while online, I couldn't find that info front and center.

2. California just announced 3 TSA workers tested positive. That, to me, seems like the last straw. This thing isn't contained and can't be, no matter how much stuff we cancel. So, what good are we really doing by cancelling flights and events and stuff?

I'm not a conspiracy theorist skeptic, just confused. I don't understand why this genie, which appears to be inescapably out of the bottle, is any more scary than the other genies that are already walking around every day.



The best case numbers we've seen puts the fatality rate at 0.7% while on the high end the rate is somewhere in the ballpark of 3%. The swine flu was twice as deadly as a normal flu and had a fatality rate of 0.2%

We do not have vaccines to help break the spread of this so it's best to get out in front of it rather than wait for it to become too widespread to contain. Why wait until millions are infected to start canceling events when we have medical professionals all over the world strongly recommending the steps cities and event organizers are taking? These aren't precautions being taken blindly. We have scientists and medical experts that are dealing with this in other countries making suggestions.

bronconick 03-11-2020 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3268091)
The tone of his tweets changed fairly dramatically this afternoon as well. Makes me wonder if the medical folks finally got through to him.


He's apparently waiting for Kushner to read up on it to make a decision about it.

Atocep 03-11-2020 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronconick (Post 3268102)
He's apparently waiting for Kushner to read up on it to make a decision about it.


Kushner has to figure out how to profit off it first.

Ben E Lou 03-11-2020 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3268095)
I don't think we've seen any evidence that this kind of thing would last for more than an afternoon for him, if Fox & Friends contradicts his medical experts tomorrow morning, all bets are off. Absolutely terrified letting this guy address the nation to try to encourage awareness/some action but discourage a panic.

To be clear, by "got to him," I'm thinking "Oh no, it sounds like if I don't do something I could lose the election."


Another out-of-character tweet a few minutes ago...



AlexB 03-11-2020 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3268093)
Can't get money from an ATM is the people who stock it and service it are sick, or if there is no power.

I am talking real societal breakdown shit, not just cash on hand. That being said cash won't mean much if society breaks down. Medicine and guns would likely be the new currency. I floated the idea to my wife of getting a handgun and she wasn't on board.


I think youíre overreacting somewhat.

RainMaker 03-11-2020 05:23 PM

Not trying to downplay this but this isn't some plague wiping out half the population. It sounds like the death rate will be between 1-2%, and that is primarily elderly people who aren't exactly stocking the ATM machines. And from what I've read, young people seem to handle this fairly well outside of a small percent who have complications.

Below are the numbers out of South Korea. The rates of death for people under 50 are right around flu levels.

This is a virus that really fucks up older people.



Edward64 03-11-2020 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3268093)
Can't get money from an ATM is the people who stock it and service it are sick, or if there is no power.

I am talking real societal breakdown shit, not just cash on hand. That being said cash won't mean much if society breaks down. Medicine and guns would likely be the new currency. I floated the idea to my wife of getting a handgun and she wasn't on board.


Okay, I see the scenario you are painting.

Cash for maybe some last minute spending before it all really breaks down. If you really think society can break down for an extended period of time, sure get some cash (but the value is questionable), and I would also suggest you make sure you have enough food & water, medicine, plan for immediate family, maybe pay off several months of bills, get to know your neighbors if not already, and then get a weapon.

Let me reiterate that you need to be a responsible gun owner. This means training, gun safe etc. and always be conscious (and accountable) for your actions.

As someone else pointed out, there are sheep (BAAAA-den - don't agree with the characterization but was kinda funny) and there are wolves, especially more so when society collapses for a while. Katrina is my use case but I don't think we are close to that extreme.

miami_fan 03-11-2020 05:28 PM

Per the BBC website,

Juventus have announced that Italy centre-back Daniele Rugani has tested positive for coronavirus.

Edward64 03-11-2020 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic (Post 3268097)
BITCOIN!!!


Unfortunately, Bitcoin is taking a dive too right now.

NobodyHere 03-11-2020 05:29 PM

Am I wrong that I'm beginning to think the country is overreacting to the virus?

AlexB 03-11-2020 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3268111)
Am I wrong that I'm beginning to think the country is overreacting to the virus?


You think? Jesus H Christ FOFC, get a grip!

RainMaker 03-11-2020 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3268111)
Am I wrong that I'm beginning to think the country is overreacting to the virus?


No. It's a virus at least 10 times deadlier than the flu that spreads easier and has no vaccine.

Some of the conservative estimates are putting deaths at 300k.

jbergey22 03-11-2020 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3268111)
Am I wrong that I'm beginning to think the country is overreacting to the virus?


Well its pretty much a yearly trend since social media became huge that something big is going to wipe out a large portion of the planet. It appears to be overreaction but I guess we wont know until later. Better to be safe than sorry!

Ben E Lou 03-11-2020 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3267659)
Two weeks from tomorrow, I'm scheduled to chaperone my daughters' school's annual 5th grade trip to DC. 3 buses. 5 hours each way. What could possibly go wrong in a confined space with 120 10-year-olds for 10 hours???


I'm saying 20% chance that they go ahead with the trip.

We just got the call. Cancelled.

Edward64 03-11-2020 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexB (Post 3268112)
You think? Jesus H Christ FOFC, get a grip!


So you and NobodyHere care to share what you think are overreactions?

cuervo72 03-11-2020 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3268115)
We just got the call. Cancelled.


Our band/choir trip to Boston -- for Apr. 23 -- has been canceled.

Of course I'm the music booster treasurer, so I'm going to have to figure out refunds for everyone assuming we get money back from the travel company.

PilotMan 03-11-2020 06:02 PM


Arles 03-11-2020 06:04 PM

Has anyone got information on the impact on kids? I've seen some higher death rates for older people, but I haven't seen much data on the impact to kids.

Edward64 03-11-2020 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3268120)
Has anyone got information on the impact on kids? I've seen some higher death rates for older people, but I haven't seen much data on the impact to kids.


See post #550. Basically kids are around .2% assuming no pre-existing conditions. Not sure how precise the % is but it's accepted that kids and young adults are at much lower risk.

Carman Bulldog 03-11-2020 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3268106)
This is a virus that really fucks up older people.


I am aware of how fucked up this sounds, but the end result of this could be a net benefit for some governments by the reduction of population from these age brackets in terms of sustainability of federal social security programs, pensions, etc. as well as long-term medicare/healthcare costs.

Lathum 03-11-2020 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3268118)


Literally just watched this, scary stuff from someone who seems credible.

Atocep 03-11-2020 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3268120)
Has anyone got information on the impact on kids? I've seen some higher death rates for older people, but I haven't seen much data on the impact to kids.


Preliminary data shows kids are at less risk and as of right now science can't explain why. IIRC, even in China, there hadn't been a death reported of any child age 9 or younger.

Access Denied

Quote:

Why Are Kids at Lower Risk?
Dr. John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the University of California—Berkeley School of Public Health, adds a note of caution. Yes, he says, “the preliminary epidemiological data suggest that children don’t seem to get as sick as adults, but I want to emphasize that this is very preliminary data out of China.”

However, the CDC reports that this is consistent with data from past coronavirus outbreaks, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, or SARS-CoV, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, or MERS-CoV, where infection among children was “relatively uncommon” in those outbreaks.

The reasons for this remain a mystery. “Nobody understands why,” Murphy says. “It just appears not to be impacting them to any significant degree compared to teens and adults.” Swartzberg is willing to speculate, though he says, “these are only guesses. There is no science to support it.” One guess is that the virus first entered adults and has mostly spread from adult to adult, so it may be genetically predisposed somehow to affect older people. Another guess is based on the fact that other forms of the coronavirus are very common in children. “About one-third of all coronavirus infections are in children, so the idea is that maybe children are getting these other coronaviruses and that may be some protection. But again, this is all conjecture.”

Swartzberg also stresses: “We don’t even know for certain that (children) are getting less disease. There are less than two months of data. We don’t know, in children and adults, how many are infected and don’t even have any symptoms. There could be a lot of us walking around with (what seems like) colds who have this, or they may be asymptomatic.” That, of course, would make the disease and death rates even lower than already thought.

Vegas Vic 03-11-2020 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3268110)
Unfortunately, Bitcoin is taking a dive too right now.


True, but itís still up 6.75% ytd and up 97.05% for 1-yr. Slightly better than the Dow. ;)

NobodyHere 03-11-2020 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3268116)
So you and NobodyHere care to share what you think are overreactions?


Well shutting down the economy because of a virus that is mainly lethal to the elderly with complications does seem like an overreaction to me.

The recession that our reaction is going to cause may be more troublesome than the virus itself.

miami_fan 03-11-2020 06:44 PM

The elderly still the most consistent voting bloc in the country, right?

molson 03-11-2020 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3268125)
Preliminary data shows kids are at less risk and as of right now science can't explain why. IIRC, even in China, there hadn't been a death reported of any child age 9 or younger.

Access Denied


Has there been a movie or TV series where a virus kills off all adults, leaving all the children in the world to figure it out? I'd watch that.

thesloppy 03-11-2020 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3268130)
Has there been a movie or TV series where a virus kills off all adults, leaving all the children in the world to figure it out? I'd watch that.


The Tribe (1999 TV series - Wikipedia)

It was young adult sci-fi from New Zealand, and it was gloriously bad.


bob 03-11-2020 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thesloppy (Post 3268131)
The Tribe (1999 TV series - Wikipedia)

It was young adult sci-fi from New Zealand, and it was gloriously bad.



Well, I know how I’m spending our upcoming quarantine.

Edit: Holy crap - 260 episodes? Never mind, quarantine won’t be long enough.

RainMaker 03-11-2020 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3268128)
Well shutting down the economy because of a virus that is mainly lethal to the elderly with complications does seem like an overreaction to me.

The recession that our reaction is going to cause may be more troublesome than the virus itself.


I feel like people would be OK with a recession over seeing half a million people die.


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