That still doesn't make what I said wrong. Every person can have a voice, but the society has to have a level of accepted ideals that fit inside democracy. People can have differences within that system, but if beliefs do not exist within the function of that system, then it's not functional.

You've completely lost me there. I don't even know what your argument is, but I will stop derailing this thread at this point.

I honestly don't know how you can't, but as usual, best wishes and everything.

My tests and my parent's tests came back negative. Which means my nephew got it from the other grandparents. But they refuse to get tested.

Just found out a former director from my long-ago summer theatre days died this morning in NC. Be careful out there folks.

Re: Brian, PilotMan, molson, et al

I've struggled with this a bit over the last couple of years.

I think, in a lot of ways, Brian is right - cutting off all ties to people who disagree will just isolate them. They might have listened to you, you might have been able to stage that intervention that gets them out of the hole. It's one thing for some random person to be shouting dogma at you but it's another for your trusted friend/family member to feel differently and to make you think about it.

But I also get where both molson and PilotMan are coming from - you do have a duty to protect those you love. I'm fortunate to not be in a position where I've had to do that. My family has similar political beliefs but not all and even those who are longtime GOP members wouldn't back Trump this year. So I've only had to make that choice with friends and acquaintances - not family.

Even beyond that, I think there's a real danger in elevating those extreme viewpoints to where they appear "mainstream". Just talking about two things - one rational and one extreme - in the same breath moves the Overton window towards that more extreme viewpoint. I can guarantee there are some people that view overturning a Presidential election no different than debating tax policy and that seems really dangerous. I definitely understand the idea that you can't just let something like this breeze by - the whole idea of "silence is compliance" or whatever catchy slogan.

So, I mean, I guess all I'm saying is I think both are right and I don't know a good answer here and I'm glad I haven't had to deal with it personally.

SI

JFC

The other grandparents now said they were exposed to someone with COVID, and the grandmother not feeling well, when they traveled from Indiana to Texas.

In addition to UK delaying the 2nd dose, the US is now exploring giving half-dose for Moderna. I'm all for it if the efficacy is still pretty high. Haven't heard from Fauci though.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/03/us-c...erna-shot.html

We currently are at less than 20% of vaccines delivered being administered. There's no need right now to look at ways to increase doses per vial. The effort needs to be put towards greatly expanding the speed of getting vaccines into people.

I was reading some of the hurdles California is running into getting their vaccines out and it seems like the administration shipped the vaccines, celebrated, and spiked the proverbial football thinking it's all over when an enormous amount of work and obsticles remain.

We're going to end up throwing away a ton of vaccine in January when we reach the expiration dates.

Another problem is how much concern there is for not giving the vaccine to anyone outside of the protocols. There should be a wait list and as vials get to expiration, anyone on the list can get a vaccine.

I know someone who works in a hospital here in Houston and they've done just that. During Phase 1A, they had Phase 1B people on standby so they didn't waste a single dose. With Phase 1B, they had general population people who worked there on standby. They even have a few hundred doses not claimed over the holidays and they opened those appointments up to the general employee population.

I can't say every facility or institution is that on top of it and I'm sure there will be some waste. But the places I've heard of it are treating it like liquid gold right now. Whether that is still the case in a month... I dunno.

SI

My wife's place did the same thing, but they can't go beyond employees. Cuomo is making a big deal about penalties for vaccines given outside of protocols. I understand not wanting the vaccines to go to the healthy and connected, but they should be operating on the idea that every dose needs to be given to someone.

I had an antibody test back in August when it was much easier to get than a full one & a nose swab the week before Christmas (both negative). I don't know what the current science is saying about immunity from re-infection or different strains, but I'll probably try to get another antibody test & I'll at least feel a little more comfortable if it now shows I've had it.

Iirc, there were several different antibody tests with different rates of false positives, but most of the false results were positives instead of erroneous negatives, and it was both cheap & fast.

Purely anecdotal here in SC, but my wife had surgery at the main hospital this AM. She's now staying overnight, but I visited her from 9-1 so far today.

At 9, the COVID drive thru testing line at the hospital was full. My best guess about 150 cars in line based on having done it before. When I left at 1, I couldn't see the end of the line as it extended down the street and around a corner just to get to the line.

A very thoughtful post, and I don't want to gotcha or nitpick here. I agree that silence can often be compliance. My objection to this line of thought doesn't say that we should be silent about problematic views, but rather to ask who gets to decide when something is too extreme and dangerous to be discussed? This is the sort of vein in which I completely agree with Hitchens, and find modern thought on the left to be lacking when it comes to the value of encouraging people to express what they think, whatever it is.

Which is exactly why we exist in a post-fact world where someone like trump can act and speak how he does, causing the damage he does specifically in that way. Extreme thought isn't extreme to extremists, what they see as extreme is the status quo that has kept things running for generations. Equating those platforms is damaging to society on the whole.

Unfortunately that is one of the paradoxes within democracy. Everyone has the right to a voice, but some of those voices risk destroying democracy.

Dola, back onto our scheduled topic - we’re back into full lockdown, likely until the beginning of March reading between the lines

Again, I do. I get to decide who I associate with. I get to decide what lines are too far for me. Not you. You indicated you agreed with that, but it seems you don't really.

Nah, I still think it's me, and not Brian, who gets to decide if I have to associate with racist Trumpers who want to overthrow the election and our Democracy. Brian can choose your associations if you think that's a better idea for you, but I'm not deferring that role to him for my life. I'm 42, I have zero interest in or ability to convert my 54 year old brother, or making new friends that are super into Trump and support the efforts of his party to overthrow the election.

I'm not continuing this in this thread, it's already gone too far here. Moving to the Trump one.

So Mick Foley and Larry King has the covids.

Could you imagine the virus killing Mick Foley? After all the abuse he has taken in his wrestling career it would just seem wrong.

They say Larry King is no longer in the ICU which is amazing. He is like 119 years old and has had 50 heart attacks.

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NY is now the 4th state to find the UK variant. Supposedly more contagious (not sure if more lethal).

I'm not sure I've heard from CDC a definitive "yes, the current Pfizer/Moderna etc. vaccines will work and est. efficacy is X% (or similar)".

I do think it's reasonable to assume it'll be lower than the 94-95% efficacy.

And know we know the reason.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/pros...s-unsafe-.html

Is it OK to destroy vaccines if you truly believe that they're harmful? I don't know. But I don't want to be friends with that guy either.

That has already been covered. His job should not force him to do anything that is against his personal beliefs.

Early stages of care rationing in California: http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dh...diacArrest.pdf

Definitely the right decision in my opinion, but also an indication of where we are with the hospital overcrowding crisis.

Maybe he should find a different job then.

We need a catchy name for this. Like "deadly panels" or something. You know, like whatever those warlock tribunals were called that Obama and Clinton set up to kill old folks.

With all eyes on the little thing going on in D.C. we missed this other little thing going on.

Officials reported at least 3,963 new COVID-19 deaths yesterday, a new single day record.

All right cool, back to D.C.

Are we even tracking this anymore? New variant in Houston now - not really unexpected.

NEW: We’ve confirmed the FIRST Texas case of the more contagious, “British” #COVID19 strand #B117 in Harris County. This is disturbing. Along with our recent trends, we could be on the road to a crisis if we don't change our behavior NOW. Do your part.

— Lina Hidalgo (@LinaHidalgoTX) January 7, 2021

SI

On the road to a crisis? You mean, we weren't already on that road?

Houston hasn't been as badly hit by this round as some other places and she's going to speaking specifically to our area (she's a county judge).

Remember, we got crushed back in June and July and we're not quite back up to those numbers again yet:
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...pitalizations/

However, our positivity rate has shot through the roof the last couple of weeks so it's only a matter of time, unfortunately:
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upda...pital-systems/

I'm almost certain this will be our worst month for the pandemic. This or February. Whereas I think some other places may have seen their worst in November and December (maybe?)

SI

Ok, makes sense. I forget sometimes not everyone is as bad off as CA.

Carry on.

I'm in San Diego and it looks like we are the lucky county with the new strain and my not so smart step son was exposed to someone with covid this past weekend. I just can't anymore with him.

My daughter today: Can I go to the diner for a birthday party?

No.

As bad as the more contagious strain sounds, it's likely to also be less lethal than the other ones since as has been discussed many times on here, that's generally how these things work. Do we have any data on that yet for this strain specifically?

I'm thinking it's way too early to really know, but just wondering if others have more info than me.

I can't seem to pin down that answer either

SI

Good friend just got diagnosed. He has fever and body aches. He is a big boy like me, so it is a bit of worry.

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My boss told me today that her 27 year healthy nephew had inflammation of his heart then a heart attack and then a stint put in because of blockage of half his heart, all related to covid.

Fact with this strain/these strains: none of the mutatations are in areas of the genome associated with severity/how it replicates in the organism. So neither more nor less severe is expected on this front.

The reason you read in articles stuff like "so far no empirical evidence of higher severity" (not lower as an option) is that there is a possible/likely mechanisms (hard to proove in humans though obviously) where initial viral load and severity are connected. And that's sth that is definitely a reasonable concern here along with increased efficiency in 'docking' to a new host via ACE Receptors.

Overall it's playing russian roulette hoping the inevitable relevant mutations (there thousands of irelevant ones*) that get more and more likely with increased spread turn out to be a net positive. Especially with vaccines being administered right now.

* Just for clarity: Mutations are all random. It's simply the internal 'proofreading' mechanism (which this virus has, unlike say influenza or hiv) messing up during replication of the viral RNA. So the more often a new person gets infected, especially many in a short time from the same source, the more mistakes happen. There's no direct mechanism where it mutates to be more transmissable and less deadly unless by pure chance both things are caused during the same screwup of the proofreading. Or one happens, then the other in a subsequent host (again, chance). The latter is one that is most likely, if it happens often enough or gets enough lucky breaks (say it's just transmissable enough to spread during periods where others almost or wholly disapear (say in spring + vaccines) to then be the dominant one come the next autumn.
But that'd be a regional thing at first.

The whole "what is good for the virus" comes afterwards from evolutionary pressure and simply chance ("founder effect") which variant gets the jump. This particular virus already has many features that make "less deadly" not especially advantagous. 1) it has a very wide range of outcomes, includingba comparatively high amount of asymptomatic and very mildly symptomatic hosts, 2) it has a comparatively long incubation period and high viral load even before symptoms and the first day where even those getting very sick and dying have ample time to still spread it.
So it would not be sth that happens due to 1 mutation, at best sth that happens over a longish time due to many mutations. More spread however gives a direct and immediate advantage in a situation where R of other variants under current measures hover around or even under 1 and this suddenly is 1,5 or sth under the same constraints.

Definitely kudos to Israel for being on the ball (like the US should be). But 9.3M people ain't that big of a deal IMO. Yeah, it's all relative but end of March for 9.3M people actually seems slow to me.

But regardless, good job.

https://www.cnn.com/webview/world/li...6b33c1053d005a

With how complex it is to ship, store and prepare the BionTech Vaccine ? Which can only be given at central Locations or via delivery by schooled teams ? Yeah, it kinda is. Especially given it is 1 country with a proportionate number of available personell. 9 of 330 mio might be slow. 9 of 9 is a whole different beast. More like a US state doing it's whole Population with no outside help. Not 50 states with their respective ressources splitting 9 between them for 2.5% of each states Population ;)

But note the qualifiers: 1) no children and 2) "everybody who wants to" which will ultimately mean it is closer to 5-6. But that would still be an impressive feat of Public Health Logistics.
Plus they might go the 1 dose route, about which there are fierce debates among Scientists and medical professionals/PH officials. It might actually make sense if you can do most 'older' (say above 60-65), of which Israel has a much lower share than the US, very soon , get to summer and then have everybody get a 2nd shot. But if you can't go that fast (you also simply need the doses) ...

I' ll be shocked if they actually manage that.

Edit:28% in Israel are under 14 (could not quickly find it for 16 which is the cutoff for BionTech), only 10% over 65. US at 18,5 u14, 16 over 65.

Agreed, you can't just say '9M isn't that much' when it's their whole country. The %, not the raw number, is a more useful comparison (assuming you have sufficient supply in both cases).

It is essentially same as UK approach of giving everyone their first shot and don't worry about 2nd shot because (1) first shot will help "some" and (2) assume manufacturers have the next "rolling" supply of 2nd shots ready in X weeks and (3) if the 2nd shots are not ready in X weeks, there will still be some benefit from the first shot.

Fauci was against the UK approach so not sure what he thinks of this. Thanks UK for thinking outside the box.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/08/polit...egy/index.html

They still need much better organization to administer all the vaccine that is delivered. We're now throwing away vaccine and it's criminal.

Hows your Mom doing?

Much better than I expected. We spoke via Zoom twice this week. On Monday she was prone and not very responsive, but she didn't seem to have any difficulty breathing and there was no coughing. On Thursday she was laying on her back and looked better. She was a bit more responsive and even smiled once. She's still 86 and has other health problems, and I know this disease often leaves people looking well until the moment they are in crisis, but at the moment things are much better than I had feared.

Thanks for asking.