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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

Kodos 02-25-2020 01:14 PM

CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S. - WSJ

This article is not encouraging.

C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S.

Nor this one.

Edward64 02-25-2020 02:17 PM

The US has the strongest (arguably) and/or most scalable healthcare system so we are probably the best to meet this challenge.

I do wish there was more information out there as far as "we have tried X and it has/not worked in treating the symptoms". You would think all the different existing drugs would have been tried by now. There's probably a wealth of sutdies/literature already out there but nothing has been synthesized by MSM to help educate the public.

I was reading an article about whether this was "airborne" or not. Yes, it doesn't fit the technical description of airborne but if I sneeze close by you and you can catch it, its "airborne" enough :)

RainMaker 02-25-2020 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3266124)


Stark contrast from the administration.


Galaril 02-25-2020 02:50 PM

Might be time to head down to Costco and by some bulk beans, rice,canned soup and mc n cheese. Is there any decent places that can give a idea of the type of things to pick up for a potential situation where schools, businesses and stores shutdown for a month or two?

Edward64 02-25-2020 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266129)
I do wish there was more information out there as far as "we have tried X and it has/not worked in treating the symptoms". You would think all the different existing drugs would have been tried by now. There's probably a wealth of sutdies/literature already out there but nothing has been synthesized by MSM to help educate the public.


This just popped up. Good news.

This event will inevitably be adapted to a movie one day. Looking forward to it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/us-h...n-6-weeks.html
Quote:

Human trials testing a potential vaccine for the COVID-19 coronavirus are expected to begin in six weeks, U.S. health officials announced Tuesday.

“We are on time at least and maybe even a little bit better,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services, told reporters at a press conference. “Hopefully, no further glitches.”

The White House reportedly asked Congress on Monday for $1.25 billion , including money to develop a vaccine and therapeutics to treat the virus. The National Institutes of Health has been working with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine using the current strain of the coronavirus

Edward64 02-25-2020 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266136)
Might be time to head down to Costco and by some bulk beans, rice,canned soup and mc n cheese. Is there any decent places that can give a idea of the type of things to pick up for a potential situation where schools, businesses and stores shutdown for a month or two?


Loads. Just search on google and reddit.

We have 30+ days supply of canned food already. After Katrina, it just made sense to buy "extra" stuff to put in the basement and rotate food that we would eat anyway - rice, pasta, Spam (!, love that stuff), Bush beans, canned corn, green beans, soups etc.

What I don't have yet is a couple months of toilet paper, dog food, lysol & alcohol !!

Galaril 02-25-2020 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266138)
Loads. Just search on google and reddit.

We have 30+ days supply of canned food already. After Katrina, it just made sense to buy "extra" stuff to put in the basement and rotate food that we would eat anyway - rice, pasta, Spam (!, love that stuff), Bush beans, canned corn, green beans, soups etc.

What I don't have yet is a couple months of toilet paper, dog food, lysol & alcohol !!


Thanks. This is a bit concerning for me with five kids at home and little confidence in the government especially these idiots to help us if it turns bad. I am not in panic mode but think it is prudent to have a bit of a small stock of food and like you said canned goods, dog and cat food etc. I guess it is off to Costco the am.

Edward64 02-25-2020 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266140)
Thanks. This is a bit concerning for me with five kids at home and little confidence in the government especially these idiots to help us if it turns bad. I am not in panic mode but think it is prudent to have a bit of a small stock of food and like you said canned goods, dog and cat food etc. I guess it is off to Costco the am.


I know Costco, Walmart, Target etc. keeps track of a person's purchases. It would be fascinating to see the analytics on what items are being bought now that a person would not normally buy or in that quantity.

I wonder if they have see a significant difference in buying yet from their members.

RainMaker 02-25-2020 03:46 PM

I have a friend in Florida that bought a case of MREs off Amazon (I think) when there were concerns of a hurricane last year. Seem kind of pricey but I guess in an emergency, would work.

RainMaker 02-25-2020 04:56 PM

So I thought stocking up was silly but maybe it's not a bad idea. :lol:


JPhillips 02-25-2020 05:28 PM

And it's not just mortality. The hospitalization rate is maybe the bigger worry as hospital beds fill up and then what? Even if the virus is in relatively few cities, it can still cause a lot of problems.

PilotMan 02-25-2020 05:41 PM

The rate of infection is about the same, which may have been what this person was talking about. However, the rate of death is higher with CV.



The biggest issue seems to be the incubation period. The common flu is like 3 days, and this can stretch up to 14 days, and one case of 27 days (although it's possible that person was exposed to more than one person who had the virus).

Izulde 02-25-2020 06:00 PM

Also that the incubation period is largely asymptomatic.

Edward64 02-25-2020 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3266164)
The rate of infection is about the same, which may have been what this person was talking about. However, the rate of death is higher with CV.


FWIW ...

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science
Quote:

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science previously reported.


Re: Death rate, per the link below, it's primarily the older folks that have to worry. It was a little < 15% for 80+ and pretty high for 70+

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

tarcone 02-25-2020 06:23 PM

Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO

Lathum 02-25-2020 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266171)
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO


We can't get people to use their blinkers....

PilotMan 02-25-2020 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266171)
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?




Because of libertarians, that's why.

NobodyHere 02-25-2020 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266171)
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO


I wouldn't mind a 2 week vacation.

PilotMan 02-25-2020 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266170)
FWIW ...

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science



Re: Death rate, per the link below, it's primarily the older folks that have to worry. It was a little < 15% for 80+ and pretty high for 70+

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News




Regarding the first number:


There's lot of numbers none of them hard yet.



How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13]
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23].
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Edward64 02-25-2020 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266171)
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Give people a 48 hour window to stock up and GO


Great idea but unfortunately I'd still have to work remote.

I do wonder if there is enough food at grocery stores for each family to buy 2 weeks worth of food?

Which leads to another question - how are the folks quarantined in cities like Wuhan getting food?

Galaril 02-25-2020 07:21 PM

So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .

Lathum 02-25-2020 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266182)
So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .


Not a chance I would take a hastily developed vaccine for a disease I have 98% chance of surviving.

Galaril 02-25-2020 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266195)
Not a chance I would take a hastily developed vaccine for a disease I have 98% chance of surviving.


Yes the vaccine would need to be proper tested and be considered as safe as the common flu vaccine . Do you get the flu vaccine or are you against vaccinations in general?

Lathum 02-25-2020 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266201)
Yes the vaccine would need to be proper tested and be considered as safe as the common flu vaccine . Do you get the flu vaccine or are you against vaccinations in general?


I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.

tarcone 02-25-2020 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266214)
I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.


You realize there is great chance your kids get cancer is they dont get the HPV virus? Even if the chance is remote, why not negate it?

As much as I am a conspiracy theory guy and I dont trust the government, Im sold on vaccinations.

Galaril 02-25-2020 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266214)
I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.


Fair points.

Lathum 02-25-2020 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266224)
You realize there is great chance your kids get cancer is they dont get the HPV virus? Even if the chance is remote, why not negate it?



How do you know that? Have you done the research? Seen independent research? Are there even independent studies that exist or is it what the drug companies have told you because they profit from it?

Again. I am not saying that is what I believe, I am saying I need to do more research.

tarcone 02-25-2020 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266231)
How do you know that? Have you done the research? Seen independent research? Are there even independent studies that exist or is it what the drug companies have told you because they profit from it?

Again. I am not saying that is what I believe, I am saying I need to do more research.


Damn you. Im as big an anti Pharma guy as there is and yet I buy into the vaccination stuff.

What do I believe, What do I think is fact or fiction? Who do I believe?

I hate big pharma, yet Im buying into their propaganda.

Radii 02-25-2020 09:28 PM

Yeah I'm absolutely no expert here but using the HPV vaccine as the example here seriously surprises me. I was under the impression that the cancer risks in women who contract HPV are well understood and accepted and that this was seen as a godsend for women's health by virtually everyone who isn't strict anti-vaxx.

Again, not anywhere close to an expert and I can't bring you sources for any of this, just my general understanding with the impression that this understanding comes from many sources who don't stand to profit or have ulterior motives.

Edward64 02-25-2020 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266182)
So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .


TBH I would not want to be the first tranche to take the vaccination even after successful human trials.

I'll wait after first tranche + 1 month just in case anything comes up. Now if everybody was dying left-and-right, yeah I'll go first.

Galaril 02-25-2020 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266247)
TBH I would not want to be the first tranche to take the vaccination even after successful human trials.

I'll wait after first tranche + 1 month just in case anything comes up. Now if everybody was dying left-and-right, yeah I'll go first.


Agree.

Lathum 02-25-2020 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3266242)
Yeah I'm absolutely no expert here but using the HPV vaccine as the example here seriously surprises me. I was under the impression that the cancer risks in women who contract HPV are well understood and accepted and that this was seen as a godsend for women's health by virtually everyone who isn't strict anti-vaxx.

Again, not anywhere close to an expert and I can't bring you sources for any of this, just my general understanding with the impression that this understanding comes from many sources who don't stand to profit or have ulterior motives.


Like I said I haven't even thought about researching it yet. Maybe the bias has sunk in through osmosis on social media or something.

Toddzilla 02-25-2020 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3266177)
Regarding the first number:


There's lot of numbers none of them hard yet.



How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13]
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23].
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

If COVID is >= 3.0, then this is going to be a Spanish Flu level catastrophe, tens of millions dead.

RainMaker 02-25-2020 11:19 PM

Noticed N99 masks are sold out at Amazon.

PilotMan 02-26-2020 06:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toddzilla (Post 3266251)
If COVID is >= 3.0, then this is going to be a Spanish Flu level catastrophe, tens of millions dead.


I still don't see it. I believe modern countries, with strong medicine and high standards of cleanliness will not experience this on anything like that level. China, India, Africa, Russia all are at a substantially higher risk. Maybe it will and maybe that will be enough to crash these global economy, but warmer weather is coming too and like the risk will drop with that alone.

HPV vaccines for men massively reduce cancer risks for women. This has been shown. I would give them all day and twice on Sunday.

molson 02-26-2020 11:35 AM

I was reading about how one of the reasons coronavirus spreads so quickly and easily is that it's not particularly deadly or even debilitating. Young people get it, assume they have the cold or the flu - or sometimes feel no symptoms at all - and continue their plans and travel around. They tested everyone on that cruise ship and lots of people had it - even though they all felt fine. If they were just out in the world they wouldn't have even been tested.

That makes containment a lot more difficult. There's a Harvard professor who thinks that 40-70% of people in the world will get the virus at some point, but that most will get only mildly sick, or not notice at all.

Even though they probably under-report things, the fact that we don't have reports of bodies in the streets in China despite how easily this spreads seems to support all that. If China can avoid massive deaths, and there's some indications things are tapering off there, we hopefully will see even smaller death tolls in Europe and North America.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/

Warhammer 02-26-2020 01:24 PM

It sounds like this is a bit like West Nile Virus. Some won’t notice they have it, the elderly and very young die.

Edward64 02-26-2020 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warhammer (Post 3266300)
It sounds like this is a bit like West Nile Virus. Some won’t notice they have it, the elderly and very young die.


Not sure about the very young, see BBC link above. If it can be believed (have to take it with a grain of salt, its a Chinese study), it showed the very young were not impacted that much either. Primarily the older folks ... just under 15% for 80+, about 8% for 70-79, 3.5% for 60-69.

(Probably some ageist bio-terror plot to redistribute Boomer wealth IMO)

Galaril 02-26-2020 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3266252)
Noticed N99 masks are sold out at Amazon.


I was just listening to someone from the CDC on NPR and they said mask are only helpful for sick people not to spread the disease.

JPhillips 02-26-2020 05:14 PM

HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.

Galaril 02-26-2020 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266331)
HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.


WTF grifters.

Izulde 02-26-2020 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266331)
HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.


Gross.

Galaril 02-26-2020 05:42 PM

My worst fears have come to pass. We have national crisis that involves potential life and death decisions and we have to count Trump to protect us.

Galaril 02-26-2020 05:46 PM

Trump- “I am putting Mike Pence in charge as the Czar"........No!!!!

Though I guess better than Trump.

JPhillips 02-26-2020 05:51 PM

Pence making it clear that Dear Leader is using his powers as a God-King to protect all Americans.

GrantDawg 02-26-2020 05:53 PM

Don't worry. Pence us in charge. You know, the guy who doesn't believe in science.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Lathum 02-26-2020 05:59 PM

Pray the corona away. Perfect.

Galaril 02-26-2020 05:59 PM

Haha I forgot about that. We are all fucked!

bhlloy 02-26-2020 06:00 PM

I’m looking forward to scientists revealing that the gays are the reason Coronavirus is sweeping across America

RainMaker 02-26-2020 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266329)
I was just listening to someone from the CDC on NPR and they said mask are only helpful for sick people not to spread the disease.


I figured as much. Just thought it was interesting to see people stocking up.

Did find some N95 masks around the house I used during messy home improvement projects.


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