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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

Atocep 03-02-2020 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3266752)
Being in fairly close proximity to the Washington breakouts, some people around here suspect they've already had it - based on the descriptions of mild cases having a cough and shortness of breath rather than the more varied typical flu symptoms.


I started getting sick at the end of last week and didn't think much of it since my county (Pierce, which sits right below King and I'm 40 minutes from Seattle) hadn't shown any cases yet. That changed yesterday when I read an article that stated they now believe it's been in Washington for up to 6 weeks. I have the symptoms and I'd describe it as an awful cold. The cough sucks and I've had slight shortness of breath and a slight fever. The fever broke last night and today is the first day I've felt a bit better since Friday.

If it's been in Washington spreading for the past 6 weeks, which looks likely now, we can assume it's nearly everywhere by now.

PilotMan 03-02-2020 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3266771)
I started getting sick at the end of last week and didn't think much of it since my county (Pierce, which sits right below King and I'm 40 minutes from Seattle) hadn't shown any cases yet. That changed yesterday when I read an article that stated they now believe it's been in Washington for up to 6 weeks. I have the symptoms and I'd describe it as an awful cold. The cough sucks and I've had slight shortness of breath and a slight fever. The fever broke last night and today is the first day I've felt a bit better since Friday.

If it's been in Washington spreading for the past 6 weeks, which looks likely now, we can assume it's nearly everywhere by now.





This also describes my oldest son. He was sick last week, fever, aches, bad sinus issues, broke by the end of the week, but no vomiting like you'd see with the flu. We're in NKY. No cases officially, but it wouldn't surprise me. He's a janitor at a local university and tons have been out sick, employees and students. Nobody else in house has gotten it yet.

miami_fan 03-02-2020 04:45 PM

The wife has begun getting texts from parents of her students concerned with what may happen in school this week. The kids in her class are grade level K-2 and some of them have compromised immune systems. Being that it is elementary school, this is a troubling situation on most days since there are also children throughout the school who are brought to school despite being obviously sick.

JPhillips 03-02-2020 05:45 PM

The clip of Trump asking if a good flu vaccine would help against coronavirus is too perfect.

Edward64 03-02-2020 06:07 PM

My wife is a Special Ed teacher. I asked her tonight if school had given any guidance on coronavirus and she said nada.

I would think school systems would tell teachers that if they notice any of the symptoms to send kid to nurse and have kid checked out, or an email to parents saying if your kid is sick the kid has to "really, really" stay home (even if you think its just the flu) etc.

No afflicted yet in GA but am surprised at the lack of pro activeness here.

FWIW, I guess Washington State will be our prototype on how (or not) to react to an outbreak. Some schools were closed today.

miami_fan 03-02-2020 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3266819)
The wife has begun getting texts from parents of her students concerned with what may happen in school this week. The kids in her class are grade level K-2 and some of them have compromised immune systems. Being that it is elementary school, this is a troubling situation on most days since there are also children throughout the school who are brought to school despite being obviously sick.


The count is now for the state:

2 positive tests, one in Tampa area who just came back from Northern Italy.
5 tests pending
15 tests negative
184 being monitored.

RainMaker 03-02-2020 07:43 PM

This is a really good tracker of cases.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

The CDC removed the "Tested" stat from their site which I hope is not a sign they are trying to hold back data because they fucked up.

Lathum 03-02-2020 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miami_fan (Post 3266819)
The wife has begun getting texts from parents of her students concerned with what may happen in school this week. The kids in her class are grade level K-2 and some of them have compromised immune systems. Being that it is elementary school, this is a troubling situation on most days since there are also children throughout the school who are brought to school despite being obviously sick.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266832)
My wife is a Special Ed teacher. I asked her tonight if school had given any guidance on coronavirus and she said nada.

I would think school systems would tell teachers that if they notice any of the symptoms to send kid to nurse and have kid checked out, or an email to parents saying if your kid is sick the kid has to "really, really" stay home (even if you think its just the flu) etc.

No afflicted yet in GA but am surprised at the lack of pro activeness here.

FWIW, I guess Washington State will be our prototype on how (or not) to react to an outbreak. Some schools were closed today.


My kids school sent out a communication over the weekend basically saying keep your sick kids home. They outlined what they were doing including extra sanatation, making sure kids are more proactive in washing, etc...

PilotMan 03-02-2020 07:59 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if my kid had it last week. Works at a University as a Janitor, people have been sick all over the place, but his symptoms are a mirror image of what they are talking about. Not the flu, but a fever, body aches, cough, shortness of breath, really bad sinus congestion. The whole thing was bad 3-4 days, by day 5 he was feeling better and the fever didn't last more than a couple days. Of course, there's a whole lot of crap out there like that, but if we believe that it's been in the US and spreading for weeks before the first cases are confirmed it stands to reason that it's far more widespread than we currently know, and as a corollary, that it's far less deadly than the current numbers we are looking at.

GrantDawg 03-02-2020 08:04 PM

Governor Kemp holding a press conference at 10pm, along with all the health and safety heads. I imagine this is to announce cases in Georgia.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Edward64 03-02-2020 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3266869)
Governor Kemp holding a press conference at 10pm, along with all the health and safety heads. I imagine this is to announce cases in Georgia.


Went to AJC and CNN and did not see anything. Thanks for the heads up, I'll tune in at 10.


BTW - what a great day for the stock markets. Honestly, I still think there is worse to come.

GrantDawg 03-02-2020 09:01 PM

Two cases are in Georgia. Both in the same home. One had recently traveled to Italy.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Edward64 03-02-2020 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3266880)
Two cases are in Georgia. Both in the same home. One had recently traveled to Italy.


Didn't seem to rise to the level of a last minute meeting, situation under control ... I was expecting more. Probably could have waited till the morning but appreciate their efforts in transparency.

JPhillips 03-02-2020 10:08 PM

Pence focusing on what's important:


Galaril 03-02-2020 10:24 PM

My 12 year old came home sick today from schoo. He has a slight fever, terrible cough, headache and nausea.
��

Lathum 03-03-2020 05:53 AM

Wife is traveling today Florida. I’m curious to hear how it went. She took airborn and brought Lysol wipes to clean the plane. She’s also in first class so she won’t be so crammed in.

Ben E Lou 03-03-2020 06:03 AM

Flying to Cali today. Zero face masks worn in GSO-ATL leg. Even here in Hartsfield, less than 5% wearing masks. People in both airports taking much longer than normal washing hands though. No lines for toilets, but quite a few beelines for sinks when we got off the plane here.

Edward64 03-03-2020 06:32 AM

TBH personally I think I'm almost resigned to catching it with all the travelling I do. My wife is a public school teacher, that's another pretty good vector for infection. Sooner or later, it'll be widespread.

In a way, wouldn't it be better to catch it early, get treated if needed (and before system is possibly overwhelmed), build up some immunity (I read that this may not be the case though with people catching it again) before it is widespread in the US?

Am I messed up thinking this way?

Butter 03-03-2020 06:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3266858)
This is a really good tracker of cases.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

The CDC removed the "Tested" stat from their site which I hope is not a sign they are trying to hold back data because they fucked up.


That's like a frickin' video game, so weird.

Lathum 03-03-2020 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266911)
TBH personally I think I'm almost resigned to catching it with all the travelling I do. My wife is a public school teacher, that's another pretty good vector for infection. Sooner or later, it'll be widespread.

In a way, wouldn't it be better to catch it early, get treated if needed (and before system is possibly overwhelmed), build up some immunity (I read that this may not be the case though with people catching it again) before it is widespread in the US?

Am I messed up thinking this way?


I had the same though. Better to catch it now while there are still beds available. That being said, from the sounds of it most of us here wouldn't be in too bad shape.

I am in the same boat as you. My wife travels 2-3 weeks out of the month for work. I am a stay at home dad, but I'm sure my kids would bring it home with them from school.

RainMaker 03-03-2020 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3266912)
That's like a frickin' video game, so weird.


Yeah, at first I was like this map is cool. Now I realize how morbid it is and it sucks.

albionmoonlight 03-03-2020 08:24 AM

Based on the facebook forwards I am seeing from my MAGA relatives, deciding not to protect yourself and others from the pandemic is now a point of pride because the whole thing is just designed to make Trump look bad.

I don't want to tell the Russians how to go about their business, but I'm starting to suspect that they are playing this game in Settler mode. At least kick it up to Prince, you cowards.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2020 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3266929)
Based on the facebook forwards I am seeing from my MAGA relatives, deciding not to protect yourself and others from the pandemic is now a point of pride because the whole thing is just designed to make Trump look bad.

I don't want to tell the Russians how to go about their business, but I'm starting to suspect that they are playing this game in Settler mode. At least kick it up to Prince, you cowards.




wait are you now saying that republicans WANT the virus?

albionmoonlight 03-03-2020 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 3266932)
wait are you now saying that republicans WANT the virus?


No one wants the virus. No one wants others to get the virus.

But I do think that some people (Russian bots, not the Trump administration) are peddling the idea that taking the virus seriously is bad for Trump, so people who support him shouldn't take it too seriously.

The Russians have figured out that they can make 50% of us do anything simply by casting anything as a red state/blue state issue.

albionmoonlight 03-03-2020 10:08 AM

When is the United States going to start widely testing?

Seems like we've passed the "people who have recently been abroad" point and should be testing pretty much everyone with flu-like symptoms or who has been exposed.

What's the holdup?

CrimsonFox 03-03-2020 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3266942)
When is the United States going to start widely testing?

Seems like we've passed the "people who have recently been abroad" point and should be testing pretty much everyone with flu-like symptoms or who has been exposed.

What's the holdup?


in order to perform these test, one must first take their head out of their ass

AnalBumCover 03-03-2020 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3266942)
When is the United States going to start widely testing?

Seems like we've passed the "people who have recently been abroad" point and should be testing pretty much everyone with flu-like symptoms or who has been exposed.

What's the holdup?


Insufficient numbers of available test kits, I would imagine.

JPhillips 03-03-2020 10:34 AM

The CDC actually removed the number of tested row from their public data. There are a number of anecdotal stories about the difficulty in finding a test and the lack of clear criteria given to local providers.

Ben E Lou 03-03-2020 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266945)
There are a number of anecdotal stories about the difficulty in finding a test and the lack of clear criteria given to local providers.

I have every reason to believe those anecdotes are true. This thing is likely far more widespread than we know.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2020 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3266942)
When is the United States going to start widely testing?

Seems like we've passed the "people who have recently been abroad" point and should be testing pretty much everyone with flu-like symptoms or who has been exposed.

What's the holdup?


firing the pandemic team a couple years ago and not replacing them could be a factor...

Did Trump Fire the US Pandemic Response Team?

molson 03-03-2020 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3266946)
I have every reason to believe those anecdotes are true. This thing is likely far more widespread than we know.


I think it's probably all over every state in big numbers right now, which would be very good if true. In that we don't have dead and sick clogging our rivers and whatnot despite its prevalence.

The death rate is much higher than the flu but I don't know how that number is impacted by people not getting tested, people recovering without hospitalization, most of the cases occurring in a place like China, etc.

Ben E Lou 03-03-2020 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3266948)
I think it's probably all over every state in big numbers right now, which would be very good if true. In that we don't have dead and sick clogging our rivers and whatnot despite its prevalence.

yup

QuikSand 03-03-2020 11:21 AM

widespread quiet spread (without widespread serious illness and death) = mathematically very good news, easily misunderstood as scary news

AlexB 03-03-2020 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3266933)
The Russians have figured out that they can make 50% of us do anything simply by casting anything as a red state/blue state issue.


QFT

PilotMan 03-03-2020 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266905)
Wife is traveling today Florida. I’m curious to hear how it went. She took airborn and brought Lysol wipes to clean the plane. She’s also in first class so she won’t be so crammed in.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3266909)
Flying to Cali today. Zero face masks worn in GSO-ATL leg. Even here in Hartsfield, less than 5% wearing masks. People in both airports taking much longer than normal washing hands though. No lines for toilets, but quite a few beelines for sinks when we got off the plane here.



I traveled yesterday and today domestic and people aren't there, because it's not really that widespread (that they know of). Besides, the masks are really for sick people to not spread the illness as opposed to healthy people. I think that the majority of people see this for what it is, and are being cautious, but most people understand where the true risks are.



That damned 38% of people are avoiding Corona beer is such bullshit. Just to show how shit gets twisted around. I didn't hear the exact question, but early on it was phrased "38% of people won't drink Corona beer." None of that was in the context of would they normally drink it, that I am aware of. That immediately was translated to 38% of people think drinking Corona beer will make you sick. I know it was all supposed to be tongue in cheek, but people read into the numbers what they want to see, instead of critically thinking about it.



I still think it's going to be a here or there thing, and ultimately it'll settle down and people will learn to deal with it.


Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266945)
The CDC actually removed the number of tested row from their public data. There are a number of anecdotal stories about the difficulty in finding a test and the lack of clear criteria given to local providers.





Meanwhile in Korea.....


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/asia/...ntl/index.html

molson 03-03-2020 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3266956)

That damned 38% of people are avoiding Corona beer is such bullshit. Just to show how shit gets twisted around. I didn't hear the exact question, but early on it was phrased "38% of people won't drink Corona beer." None of that was in the context of would they normally drink it, that I am aware of. That immediately was translated to 38% of people think drinking Corona beer will make you sick. I know it was all supposed to be tongue in cheek, but people read into the numbers what they want to see, instead of critically thinking about it.



I choose to believe that those poll results were based upon conscious hipster irony.

Edit: If someone bothers me on the street or in a phone call and asks me if I think Corona beer causes the coronavirus I'm probably saying yes.

JPhillips 03-03-2020 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3266946)
I have every reason to believe those anecdotes are true. This thing is likely far more widespread than we know.


NYC finds a case on the first day of locally controlled testing. There's no way that's the only case in NYC.

Ben E Lou 03-03-2020 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3266954)
widespread quiet spread (without widespread serious illness and death) = mathematically very good news, easily misunderstood as scary news

Yeah, that’s what I was trying to say. Starting to land in that camp.

Ben E Lou 03-03-2020 12:23 PM

Semi humorous side note: flight attendants on the leg to Oakland are holding true to stereotypes. Black female has on plastic gloves as she serves and retrieves. White female picked up my empty water cup with her bare hand, fingers holding to lip of cup where I’d been drinking. ������

Kodos 03-03-2020 12:29 PM

Did she take a swig?

JPhillips 03-03-2020 12:47 PM

Pence met and shook hands with military academy students in FL last week and now one of them is suspected to have coronavirus.

How long before Trump has Pence sanitized with fire?

Kodos 03-03-2020 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266970)
Pence met and shook hands with military academy students in FL last week and now one of them is suspected to have coronavirus.

How long before Trump has Pence sanitized with fire?


:D

GrantDawg 03-03-2020 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266970)
Pence met and shook hands with military academy students in FL last week and now one of them is suspected to have coronavirus.

How long before Trump has Pence sanitized with fire?

All they have to do is throw him in a lake. If he floats, he is a witch.

CrimsonFox 03-03-2020 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266970)
Pence met and shook hands with military academy students in FL last week and now one of them is suspected to have coronavirus.

How long before Trump has Pence sanitized with fire?


well p[ence already wiped his nose with his hand before shaking hands with doctors.


and oh yeah North Korea is shooting people for being infected. Hopefully that won't give stupid any ideas

JPhillips 03-03-2020 03:27 PM

Quote:

WHO estimates coronavirus death rate at 3.4 percent – higher than earlier estimates

Well, that's not good.

Lathum 03-03-2020 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267005)
Well, that's not good.


I wonder if that number goes down once developed nations start to battle it. You have to think the numbers from China are heavily skewing those results.

JPhillips 03-03-2020 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267006)
I wonder if that number goes down once developed nations start to battle it. You have to think the numbers from China are heavily skewing those results.


I actually think Iran, SK and Italy are what has led them to increase the estimate.

Toddzilla 03-03-2020 03:50 PM

I'd think, since the number of infected is likely grossly under-reported, the mortality rate is actually quite a bit lower than 2-3%

RainMaker 03-03-2020 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3266929)
Based on the facebook forwards I am seeing from my MAGA relatives, deciding not to protect yourself and others from the pandemic is now a point of pride because the whole thing is just designed to make Trump look bad.

I don't want to tell the Russians how to go about their business, but I'm starting to suspect that they are playing this game in Settler mode. At least kick it up to Prince, you cowards.


Trump did allude to this whole thing being a hoax at a rally the other day. And he has criticized media for blowing the story out of proportion. I do think some of the MAGA folks genuinely believe that anything negative happening in this country is a plot to hurt Dear Leader.

RainMaker 03-03-2020 05:17 PM

There is a briefing right now with the VP. They aren't allowing audio or video for some reason.

Says you don't need to buy masks which I've heard from other health professionals. 77 domestic cases, 3 more deaths today (9 total).

JPhillips 03-03-2020 09:15 PM

8% of Iran's parliament has tested positive so far.

tarcone 03-03-2020 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267109)
8% of Iran's parliament has tested positive so far.


Maybe the USA started this virus. Conspiracy theories for the win

Atocep 03-03-2020 09:38 PM

My son is showing the same symptoms I had. His cough isn't as bad as mine but he has a higher fever. If this is what I had I'd put it among the worst colds I've ever had. Definitely not fun, but you'd think it's the apocalypse here. Costco was sold out of water and toilet paper, the safeway next to us is sold of nearly all cleaning supplies, drinks, medicine, and essentials. The shelves at rite aid were nearly empty throughout the store. They told my wife they got a shipment of hand sanitizer in today and 4 boxes with over 100 per box sold out in 30 minutes.

Radii 03-03-2020 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3267133)
you'd think it's the apocalypse here. Costco was sold out of water and toilet paper, the safeway next to us is sold of nearly all cleaning supplies, drinks, medicine, and essentials. The shelves at rite aid were nearly empty throughout the store. They told my wife they got a shipment of hand sanitizer in today and 4 boxes with over 100 per box sold out in 30 minutes.


Ugh. I got my canned goods sorted via amazon pantry, but I really do need to make sure I'm up on over the counter meds, disinfectants and I'd prefer to stock the freezer with some fresh(er) food so its not ONLY canned goods. Nothing overboard, just following NPR's "basic preparedness" story they put out last week.

I don't do good in crowded places on a good day, I wish I'd done that before this week.

Lathum 03-03-2020 10:15 PM

Chicago State men’s basketball cancels upcoming road games due to virus concerns | WGN-TV

Edward64 03-04-2020 07:26 AM

Would like it to be confirmed but not surprising as we always talk about mutations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coro...-covid-19.html
Quote:

Researchers in China have found that two different types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections worldwide.

In a preliminary study published Tuesday, scientists at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai found that a more aggressive type of the new coronavirus had accounted for roughly 70% of analyzed strains, while 30% had been linked to a less aggressive type.

The more aggressive type of virus was found to be prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan — the Chinese city where COVID-19 was first detected late last year.

But, the frequency of this type of virus has since decreased from early January.

The researchers said their results indicate the development of new variations of the spike in COVID-19 cases was “likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination.”

Edward64 03-04-2020 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267119)
Maybe the USA started this virus. Conspiracy theories for the win


Toss in China and how this has reduced their growth and encouraged companies to look elsewhere for manufacturing/redundancy. I looked for more current pics of before/after pollution over China and didn't find it, I do wonder if the manufacturing engine has restarted.

JPhillips 03-04-2020 12:48 PM

Did Pence really brag about having 2500 test kits available?

Only 2500.

RainMaker 03-04-2020 02:04 PM


NobodyHere 03-04-2020 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267216)
Did Pence really brag about having 2500 test kits available?

Only 2500.


And some people still want the government to run the nation's health care system.

Edward64 03-04-2020 02:20 PM

At the Atlanta airport. Only one person with a mask. Look lighter than normal (but is a wed).

BYU 14 03-04-2020 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3267224)


So they are all going to look like a Detroit Tigers game in August

RainMaker 03-04-2020 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3267226)
And some people still want the government to run the nation's health care system.


It has decimated other countries.

The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency

thesloppy 03-04-2020 03:06 PM

And don't discount the horrible effects on mental health:


JPhillips 03-04-2020 03:22 PM

Trump says coronavirus is having a positive effect on the U.S. economy.

Groundhog 03-04-2020 06:01 PM

We have a toilet paper shortage crisis in Australia due to idiots stocking up on toilet paper. Canned foods also, but toilet paper is my main concern with 5 family members flying over the States to stay with us next week...

tarcone 03-04-2020 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog (Post 3267243)
We have a toilet paper shortage crisis in Australia due to idiots stocking up on toilet paper. Canned foods also, but toilet paper is my main concern with 5 family members flying over the States to stay with us next week...


Tell them to bring some. Lots of TP in the good ol' USA

Groundhog 03-04-2020 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267244)
Tell them to bring some. Lots of TP in the good ol' USA


Yeah as usual they asked me if I wanted any shoes or anything from the States, and I did just say TP please. :D

spleen1015 03-04-2020 06:27 PM

BYOTP!

molson 03-04-2020 07:16 PM

The water hoarding is interesting. I don't get how water will be impacted.

But, after researching for weeks about the complicated process involved with procuring passage on the Rise of the Resistance Ride at Disneyland, I'm pretty optimistic that this will be the absolute best time to ever go to Disneyland in a week and a half, midweek in March during a pandemic. (Unless they close it down).

I finished booking our hotels for northern Europe in mid-April and paid a little extra for refundable rates as I understand the virus is now a "known event" that travel insurance, or your credit card, will fight you on from here on out. We will go unless the airline shuts us down.

My next-office-over colleague at work has a Japan trip planned for the end of the month and he doubled down, cancelled, and re-booked because his hotel there was aggressively discounting fares to get people in. If the plane takes off, he's going. (And our agency may make him work from home for a week after he returns, as another benefit).

Groundhog 03-04-2020 07:47 PM

Honestly, if you are young(ish), healthy, and have time off from work, there's probably never been a better time to travel in recent history. We had an intern finish up here late last year with a year-long gap year planned all through Asia, and I've been looking at her Instagram shots in Japan this past week and seeing her photos at the same sites I went to 3 years ago that were jammed with tourists, she's getting amazing tourist free shots and talking about how peaceful some of these places are.

molson 03-04-2020 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog (Post 3267250)
Honestly, if you are young(ish), healthy, and have time off from work, there's probably never been a better time to travel in recent history. We had an intern finish up here late last year with a year-long gap year planned all through Asia, and I've been looking at her Instagram shots in Japan this past week and seeing her photos at the same sites I went to 3 years ago that were jammed with tourists, she's getting amazing tourist free shots and talking about how peaceful some of these places are.


I joked about the concept of "virus chasing" today at work and think it's a viable strategy depending on your own personal risk tolerance and family situation.

I would not cancel a trip to Japan if I had one scheduled. I'd follow any government mandate to self-quarantine, etc., but life's too short to hide away at any threat.

tarcone 03-04-2020 08:16 PM

If you are not over 60 and healthy, there is no reason to fear. Unless this thing mutates, this is strictly an old person killer.

JPhillips 03-04-2020 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267252)
If you are not over 60 and healthy, there is no reason to fear. Unless this thing mutates, this is strictly an old person killer.


Mostly, but not strictly and severe illness and hospitalization impact lives, too.

PilotMan 03-04-2020 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267254)
Mostly, but not strictly and severe illness and hospitalization impact lives, too.



BYU is always in the hospital and he's fucking old. RIP bro.

tarcone 03-04-2020 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267254)
Mostly, but not strictly and severe illness and hospitalization impact lives, too.


I swear to God you just wait for me to post to contradict me. :)

JPhillips 03-04-2020 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267256)
I swear to God you just wait for me to post to contradict me. :)


Only when you misspeak. ;)

JPhillips 03-04-2020 09:30 PM


Edward64 03-04-2020 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog (Post 3267246)
Yeah as usual they asked me if I wanted any shoes or anything from the States, and I did just say TP please. :D


Just go to any mall, restaurant etc. and stock up. Easy.

Edward64 03-04-2020 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267254)
Mostly, but not strictly and severe illness and hospitalization impact lives, too.


I know someone that is a sole proprietor. He is cancelling his trip abroad. He's not worried about getting the virus and dying, he's worried about being quarantined for an extended period of time (which obviously would negatively impact his business).

PilotMan 03-04-2020 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267259)



The WHO estimate is bonkers high, if that truly is the estimate. I think the number is far under 1% as well.



Still doesn't stop from the fact that he called the whole thing a 'hoax'.


Edward64 03-04-2020 09:47 PM

95,000 global cases with 3,200 deaths. But agree that the number of infected (mild, ignored as the flu) is higher than the 95,000 which makes % mortality lower.

Need more testing kits for the West to come up with a good estimate.

JPhillips 03-04-2020 10:14 PM

I don't know what the death rate is, but I'll listen to the trained epidemiologists before people who just have a hunch.

Groundhog 03-04-2020 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267260)
Just go to any mall, restaurant etc. and stock up. Easy.


In our office there are usually spare rolls in each cubicle. Gone. No joke.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 06:51 AM

As of yesterday the USA had done @500 tests total.

The spread of this virus is going to be alarming if we ever decide to mass test.

PilotMan 03-05-2020 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267266)
95,000 global cases with 3,200 deaths. But agree that the number of infected (mild, ignored as the flu) is higher than the 95,000 which makes % mortality lower.

Need more testing kits for the West to come up with a good estimate.


Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267277)
As of yesterday the USA had done @500 tests total.

The spread of this virus is going to be alarming if we ever decide to mass test.





This is my point. You're capturing all the deaths from the disease and you're only capturing the sickest of the people who are infected. Certainly the number of people infected is far greater than 95,000. Sure, only going by the raw numbers (which is the only real number that scientists can go by, because it's the only numbers they have), those numbers are correct, however you really can't presume that it's an accurate number.

albionmoonlight 03-05-2020 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267277)
The spread of this virus is going to be alarming if we ever decide to mass test.


Like Q said above, if it is widespread (without the resulting deaths) then that is actually good news that will look like bad news.

But, because it will look like bad news, I don't think that the Dear Leader is going to prioritize testing. He was on Fox News last night saying that its fine for people to go to work with the virus.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 07:41 AM

I'd say good and bad news. Mortality for those over 65 is supposedly 8% or so. That population isn't prepared for it to be in their area and they're also the most likely to believe the Fox News line that this is no big deal.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3267278)
This is my point. You're capturing all the deaths from the disease and you're only capturing the sickest of the people who are infected. Certainly the number of people infected is far greater than 95,000. Sure, only going by the raw numbers (which is the only real number that scientists can go by, because it's the only numbers they have), those numbers are correct, however you really can't presume that it's an accurate number.


I don't know where the death rate will eventually fall, but those uncertainties are being taken into account in the modeling. They aren't just dividing known cases by known death.

panerd 03-05-2020 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267282)
I don't know where the death rate will eventually fall, but those uncertainties are being taken into account in the modeling. They aren't just dividing known cases by known death.


I think that is exactly where that 3% number is coming from.

Kodos 03-05-2020 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266471)
Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.


Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266474)
Well, I have type 1 diabetes. And Im 52.

So if you see a really long period of me not posting, assume the worst.


Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267252)
If you are not over 60 and healthy, there is no reason to fear. Unless this thing mutates, this is strictly an old person killer.


Well, that was certainly a rapid evolution in your opinion of the virus. :D

Lathum 03-05-2020 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267281)
I'd say good and bad news. Mortality for those over 65 is supposedly 8% or so. That population isn't prepared for it to be in their area and they're also the most likely to believe the Fox News line that this is no big deal.


How is any of that good?

My mother in law is in her late 60s. Had a heart transplant 11 years ago. Is in OK shape, but it would be a virtual lock this thing would kill her. She is as hard core a brainwashed Trump supporter as you will ever find. Reposts memes on FB, not capable of having a rational conversation, thinks he was sent by Jesus to undo everything Obama did, etc...but I certainly don't want her dead.

NobodyHere 03-05-2020 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267288)
How is any of that good?


Fewer Fox News viewers?

JPhillips 03-05-2020 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267288)
How is any of that good?

My mother in law is in her late 60s. Had a heart transplant 11 years ago. Is in OK shape, but it would be a virtual lock this thing would kill her. She is as hard core a brainwashed Trump supporter as you will ever find. Reposts memes on FB, not capable of having a rational conversation, thinks he was sent by Jesus to undo everything Obama did, etc...but I certainly don't want her dead.


I'm saying the reduced death rate from finding more mild cases isn't the only thing to think about. There will be a lot of severe illness and death if the virus runs rampant through the U.S. because we aren't prepared and so far we haven't really been looking for the virus.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 12:01 PM

dola

The one million tests promised by the end of the week won't happen.

Everything's a con.

molson 03-05-2020 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267281)
I'd say good and bad news. Mortality for those over 65 is supposedly 8% or so. That population isn't prepared for it to be in their area and they're also the most likely to believe the Fox News line that this is no big deal.


I'm no scientitian, but it seems like we should have a lot more dead people around by now, based on the speed this spread around the world.

(I don't know shit, that's just something I don't understand.)

Kodos 03-05-2020 12:07 PM

I'm guessing we've had a number of people die from coronavirus that were incorrectly labeled as flu deaths.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 12:36 PM

Or pneumonia.

Lathum 03-05-2020 12:47 PM

So my wife is VP of Sales for a major company and manages offices all over the US. We live in NJ but her main office is in Portland, Or. She just had an employee text her to let her know someone in a Hazmat suit is going through all the offices in that building testing for the virus. It is a shared office building, and it includes several doctors offices. They wouldn't say if it is preventative or if there was a connection to someone infected. She is on the phone with HR right now. Crazy shit.

PilotMan 03-05-2020 01:03 PM

Well this is starting to really cause issues for the airlines. We're losing craptons of revenue per day, putting holds on training and new hire classes, reducing flying by 10% across the board and parking planes. That hasn't happened since '08. It's not to panic level yet, but guys assholes are starting to really tighten up.


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