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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

JPhillips 03-03-2020 09:15 PM

8% of Iran's parliament has tested positive so far.

tarcone 03-03-2020 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267109)
8% of Iran's parliament has tested positive so far.


Maybe the USA started this virus. Conspiracy theories for the win

Atocep 03-03-2020 09:38 PM

My son is showing the same symptoms I had. His cough isn't as bad as mine but he has a higher fever. If this is what I had I'd put it among the worst colds I've ever had. Definitely not fun, but you'd think it's the apocalypse here. Costco was sold out of water and toilet paper, the safeway next to us is sold of nearly all cleaning supplies, drinks, medicine, and essentials. The shelves at rite aid were nearly empty throughout the store. They told my wife they got a shipment of hand sanitizer in today and 4 boxes with over 100 per box sold out in 30 minutes.

Radii 03-03-2020 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3267133)
you'd think it's the apocalypse here. Costco was sold out of water and toilet paper, the safeway next to us is sold of nearly all cleaning supplies, drinks, medicine, and essentials. The shelves at rite aid were nearly empty throughout the store. They told my wife they got a shipment of hand sanitizer in today and 4 boxes with over 100 per box sold out in 30 minutes.


Ugh. I got my canned goods sorted via amazon pantry, but I really do need to make sure I'm up on over the counter meds, disinfectants and I'd prefer to stock the freezer with some fresh(er) food so its not ONLY canned goods. Nothing overboard, just following NPR's "basic preparedness" story they put out last week.

I don't do good in crowded places on a good day, I wish I'd done that before this week.

Lathum 03-03-2020 10:15 PM

Chicago State men’s basketball cancels upcoming road games due to virus concerns | WGN-TV

Edward64 03-04-2020 07:26 AM

Would like it to be confirmed but not surprising as we always talk about mutations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coro...-covid-19.html
Quote:

Researchers in China have found that two different types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections worldwide.

In a preliminary study published Tuesday, scientists at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai found that a more aggressive type of the new coronavirus had accounted for roughly 70% of analyzed strains, while 30% had been linked to a less aggressive type.

The more aggressive type of virus was found to be prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan — the Chinese city where COVID-19 was first detected late last year.

But, the frequency of this type of virus has since decreased from early January.

The researchers said their results indicate the development of new variations of the spike in COVID-19 cases was “likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination.”

Edward64 03-04-2020 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267119)
Maybe the USA started this virus. Conspiracy theories for the win


Toss in China and how this has reduced their growth and encouraged companies to look elsewhere for manufacturing/redundancy. I looked for more current pics of before/after pollution over China and didn't find it, I do wonder if the manufacturing engine has restarted.

JPhillips 03-04-2020 12:48 PM

Did Pence really brag about having 2500 test kits available?

Only 2500.

RainMaker 03-04-2020 02:04 PM


NobodyHere 03-04-2020 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267216)
Did Pence really brag about having 2500 test kits available?

Only 2500.


And some people still want the government to run the nation's health care system.

Edward64 03-04-2020 02:20 PM

At the Atlanta airport. Only one person with a mask. Look lighter than normal (but is a wed).

BYU 14 03-04-2020 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3267224)


So they are all going to look like a Detroit Tigers game in August

RainMaker 03-04-2020 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3267226)
And some people still want the government to run the nation's health care system.


It has decimated other countries.

The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency

thesloppy 03-04-2020 03:06 PM

And don't discount the horrible effects on mental health:


JPhillips 03-04-2020 03:22 PM

Trump says coronavirus is having a positive effect on the U.S. economy.

Groundhog 03-04-2020 06:01 PM

We have a toilet paper shortage crisis in Australia due to idiots stocking up on toilet paper. Canned foods also, but toilet paper is my main concern with 5 family members flying over the States to stay with us next week...

tarcone 03-04-2020 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog (Post 3267243)
We have a toilet paper shortage crisis in Australia due to idiots stocking up on toilet paper. Canned foods also, but toilet paper is my main concern with 5 family members flying over the States to stay with us next week...


Tell them to bring some. Lots of TP in the good ol' USA

Groundhog 03-04-2020 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267244)
Tell them to bring some. Lots of TP in the good ol' USA


Yeah as usual they asked me if I wanted any shoes or anything from the States, and I did just say TP please. :D

spleen1015 03-04-2020 06:27 PM

BYOTP!

molson 03-04-2020 07:16 PM

The water hoarding is interesting. I don't get how water will be impacted.

But, after researching for weeks about the complicated process involved with procuring passage on the Rise of the Resistance Ride at Disneyland, I'm pretty optimistic that this will be the absolute best time to ever go to Disneyland in a week and a half, midweek in March during a pandemic. (Unless they close it down).

I finished booking our hotels for northern Europe in mid-April and paid a little extra for refundable rates as I understand the virus is now a "known event" that travel insurance, or your credit card, will fight you on from here on out. We will go unless the airline shuts us down.

My next-office-over colleague at work has a Japan trip planned for the end of the month and he doubled down, cancelled, and re-booked because his hotel there was aggressively discounting fares to get people in. If the plane takes off, he's going. (And our agency may make him work from home for a week after he returns, as another benefit).

Groundhog 03-04-2020 07:47 PM

Honestly, if you are young(ish), healthy, and have time off from work, there's probably never been a better time to travel in recent history. We had an intern finish up here late last year with a year-long gap year planned all through Asia, and I've been looking at her Instagram shots in Japan this past week and seeing her photos at the same sites I went to 3 years ago that were jammed with tourists, she's getting amazing tourist free shots and talking about how peaceful some of these places are.

molson 03-04-2020 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog (Post 3267250)
Honestly, if you are young(ish), healthy, and have time off from work, there's probably never been a better time to travel in recent history. We had an intern finish up here late last year with a year-long gap year planned all through Asia, and I've been looking at her Instagram shots in Japan this past week and seeing her photos at the same sites I went to 3 years ago that were jammed with tourists, she's getting amazing tourist free shots and talking about how peaceful some of these places are.


I joked about the concept of "virus chasing" today at work and think it's a viable strategy depending on your own personal risk tolerance and family situation.

I would not cancel a trip to Japan if I had one scheduled. I'd follow any government mandate to self-quarantine, etc., but life's too short to hide away at any threat.

tarcone 03-04-2020 08:16 PM

If you are not over 60 and healthy, there is no reason to fear. Unless this thing mutates, this is strictly an old person killer.

JPhillips 03-04-2020 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267252)
If you are not over 60 and healthy, there is no reason to fear. Unless this thing mutates, this is strictly an old person killer.


Mostly, but not strictly and severe illness and hospitalization impact lives, too.

PilotMan 03-04-2020 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267254)
Mostly, but not strictly and severe illness and hospitalization impact lives, too.



BYU is always in the hospital and he's fucking old. RIP bro.

tarcone 03-04-2020 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267254)
Mostly, but not strictly and severe illness and hospitalization impact lives, too.


I swear to God you just wait for me to post to contradict me. :)

JPhillips 03-04-2020 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267256)
I swear to God you just wait for me to post to contradict me. :)


Only when you misspeak. ;)

JPhillips 03-04-2020 09:30 PM


Edward64 03-04-2020 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog (Post 3267246)
Yeah as usual they asked me if I wanted any shoes or anything from the States, and I did just say TP please. :D


Just go to any mall, restaurant etc. and stock up. Easy.

Edward64 03-04-2020 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267254)
Mostly, but not strictly and severe illness and hospitalization impact lives, too.


I know someone that is a sole proprietor. He is cancelling his trip abroad. He's not worried about getting the virus and dying, he's worried about being quarantined for an extended period of time (which obviously would negatively impact his business).

PilotMan 03-04-2020 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267259)



The WHO estimate is bonkers high, if that truly is the estimate. I think the number is far under 1% as well.



Still doesn't stop from the fact that he called the whole thing a 'hoax'.


Edward64 03-04-2020 09:47 PM

95,000 global cases with 3,200 deaths. But agree that the number of infected (mild, ignored as the flu) is higher than the 95,000 which makes % mortality lower.

Need more testing kits for the West to come up with a good estimate.

JPhillips 03-04-2020 10:14 PM

I don't know what the death rate is, but I'll listen to the trained epidemiologists before people who just have a hunch.

Groundhog 03-04-2020 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267260)
Just go to any mall, restaurant etc. and stock up. Easy.


In our office there are usually spare rolls in each cubicle. Gone. No joke.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 06:51 AM

As of yesterday the USA had done @500 tests total.

The spread of this virus is going to be alarming if we ever decide to mass test.

PilotMan 03-05-2020 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3267266)
95,000 global cases with 3,200 deaths. But agree that the number of infected (mild, ignored as the flu) is higher than the 95,000 which makes % mortality lower.

Need more testing kits for the West to come up with a good estimate.


Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267277)
As of yesterday the USA had done @500 tests total.

The spread of this virus is going to be alarming if we ever decide to mass test.





This is my point. You're capturing all the deaths from the disease and you're only capturing the sickest of the people who are infected. Certainly the number of people infected is far greater than 95,000. Sure, only going by the raw numbers (which is the only real number that scientists can go by, because it's the only numbers they have), those numbers are correct, however you really can't presume that it's an accurate number.

albionmoonlight 03-05-2020 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267277)
The spread of this virus is going to be alarming if we ever decide to mass test.


Like Q said above, if it is widespread (without the resulting deaths) then that is actually good news that will look like bad news.

But, because it will look like bad news, I don't think that the Dear Leader is going to prioritize testing. He was on Fox News last night saying that its fine for people to go to work with the virus.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 07:41 AM

I'd say good and bad news. Mortality for those over 65 is supposedly 8% or so. That population isn't prepared for it to be in their area and they're also the most likely to believe the Fox News line that this is no big deal.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3267278)
This is my point. You're capturing all the deaths from the disease and you're only capturing the sickest of the people who are infected. Certainly the number of people infected is far greater than 95,000. Sure, only going by the raw numbers (which is the only real number that scientists can go by, because it's the only numbers they have), those numbers are correct, however you really can't presume that it's an accurate number.


I don't know where the death rate will eventually fall, but those uncertainties are being taken into account in the modeling. They aren't just dividing known cases by known death.

panerd 03-05-2020 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267282)
I don't know where the death rate will eventually fall, but those uncertainties are being taken into account in the modeling. They aren't just dividing known cases by known death.


I think that is exactly where that 3% number is coming from.

Kodos 03-05-2020 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266471)
Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.


Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266474)
Well, I have type 1 diabetes. And Im 52.

So if you see a really long period of me not posting, assume the worst.


Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3267252)
If you are not over 60 and healthy, there is no reason to fear. Unless this thing mutates, this is strictly an old person killer.


Well, that was certainly a rapid evolution in your opinion of the virus. :D

Lathum 03-05-2020 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267281)
I'd say good and bad news. Mortality for those over 65 is supposedly 8% or so. That population isn't prepared for it to be in their area and they're also the most likely to believe the Fox News line that this is no big deal.


How is any of that good?

My mother in law is in her late 60s. Had a heart transplant 11 years ago. Is in OK shape, but it would be a virtual lock this thing would kill her. She is as hard core a brainwashed Trump supporter as you will ever find. Reposts memes on FB, not capable of having a rational conversation, thinks he was sent by Jesus to undo everything Obama did, etc...but I certainly don't want her dead.

NobodyHere 03-05-2020 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267288)
How is any of that good?


Fewer Fox News viewers?

JPhillips 03-05-2020 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3267288)
How is any of that good?

My mother in law is in her late 60s. Had a heart transplant 11 years ago. Is in OK shape, but it would be a virtual lock this thing would kill her. She is as hard core a brainwashed Trump supporter as you will ever find. Reposts memes on FB, not capable of having a rational conversation, thinks he was sent by Jesus to undo everything Obama did, etc...but I certainly don't want her dead.


I'm saying the reduced death rate from finding more mild cases isn't the only thing to think about. There will be a lot of severe illness and death if the virus runs rampant through the U.S. because we aren't prepared and so far we haven't really been looking for the virus.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 12:01 PM

dola

The one million tests promised by the end of the week won't happen.

Everything's a con.

molson 03-05-2020 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3267281)
I'd say good and bad news. Mortality for those over 65 is supposedly 8% or so. That population isn't prepared for it to be in their area and they're also the most likely to believe the Fox News line that this is no big deal.


I'm no scientitian, but it seems like we should have a lot more dead people around by now, based on the speed this spread around the world.

(I don't know shit, that's just something I don't understand.)

Kodos 03-05-2020 12:07 PM

I'm guessing we've had a number of people die from coronavirus that were incorrectly labeled as flu deaths.

JPhillips 03-05-2020 12:36 PM

Or pneumonia.

Lathum 03-05-2020 12:47 PM

So my wife is VP of Sales for a major company and manages offices all over the US. We live in NJ but her main office is in Portland, Or. She just had an employee text her to let her know someone in a Hazmat suit is going through all the offices in that building testing for the virus. It is a shared office building, and it includes several doctors offices. They wouldn't say if it is preventative or if there was a connection to someone infected. She is on the phone with HR right now. Crazy shit.

PilotMan 03-05-2020 01:03 PM

Well this is starting to really cause issues for the airlines. We're losing craptons of revenue per day, putting holds on training and new hire classes, reducing flying by 10% across the board and parking planes. That hasn't happened since '08. It's not to panic level yet, but guys assholes are starting to really tighten up.


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