Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread
Hello, again. Been a while.
Some time ago, I did a recurring write-up on my FOOL Ravens, a team in an unusual FOF league where the whole regular season is simmed in one day. I used the dynasty thread to help organize thoughts and maintain my own interest. That league has folded, but there's now the GML that has much the same setup. So, I'm going to take another swing at this. The goal is to write something more or less every day, get readers familiar with the team and what I'm trying to do. Oh, and to win a title. That's still on our long term "to do" list. More on that later. Hard to call this a "dynasty thread" when we don't win anything. |
The league: GML
Part of the legendary BELCO network. Praise deserved. Join. The team: Baltimore Ravens, natch The setup: This is a fast-moving league, not for everyone. A file every day, a full season every two weeks. The history: My Ravens have always been good, sometimes elite, but never a champion. Not even a conference champion. I don't know if that's just bad luck, some strange mismatch with my gameplan, or something else. Regardless, it makes for a centerpiece of this whole exercise. Just win, already, guys. The guy: We might as well mention Leo now. I failed to export, blew a season, won a coin toss, and got pick 1.1, drafted a stud QB. He put together a regular season career better than anyone I've ever had in any MP league, I reckon, and easily the best in this league's history. Laid eggs in every postseason. Uncanny. Not sure what more to say. |
Lately, the story has been mostly sad. After Leo retired, we basically wandered through the QB-starved desert for a few seasons. Not terrible enough to go 3-13, but not good enough to really compete, despite having a pretty good framework of players otherwise. I put some real dogs out there, stubbornly sticking to my affinity system rather than get a somewhat-credible non-affinity passer. That's me.
We signed FA QB Rob Gunn, fairly cheaply, and he gave us a great season, leading us to a Leo-esque 13-3, #1 seed, and early playoff exit. Then, last season I managed to fail to export in the key stage, my roster got all messed up, and we slipped to 8-8. We come into this season with a few noteworthy issues: -Gunn is in his final contract year, and likely will want to extend (unsure whether I do) -WR Luke Duran is a monster and the guy who we run the pass-happy offense through -We've built up the OL but are amidst some chemistry woes there -Defensive front is thin, but in a no-injury league that's manageable -Seconary is notoriously bad, despite being ok in talent (likely bad gameplanning) |
In addition to FA stages 2-3, it's also the first round of the draft. So, here's our pick at 1.17... not thrilling, but he looks functional to me. I passed on a big bars RB who looked like my BPA among good-fit players. I'm thin along the DL, so this guy fills a major need, should fit in for us, and looks solid to me.
We don't land anyone of note in the first two stages of free agency. This league is a little weird - we have talked about instituting a "cap crunch" but have not done so. But, we have a number of AI-run teams that make (unwise) decisions to let good free agents walk, so there are often pretty good players, including some 5th year guys. It takes big money to sign them, I have cap space but generally hold out for great fits. I put in a half-hearted offer on a non-affinity OL, but basically sat this stage out. |
I realize these don't work well, but here's our roster entering the preseason. Will try to do some commentary ahead:
Code:
Front Office Football Eight |
As I type, I am on deck for round two of the rookie draft. We have traded away the two third rounders we had this season (to get our current QB-in-waiting, more on him later I reckon), so this is our last chance to get a guy who maps out as a meaningful impact player.
The top four guys in my draft queue are defensive front guys, so we'll likely just add another log to that fire here. Overall, I'm pretty comfortable with where we are on offense, so this is a good fit. From above, you can see that our current starting DL are in seasons 9,11, and 12. That's fine for now, but we do need some promising players behind them. Thus Broomfield above, and a couple more DL in my queue now. We're similary situated at LB right now, too: Code:
Klecko, Jeremiah 1354SILB 10 43 43 --- Klecko is pissed off and won't re-sign, Klinghagen might not make it to opening day, and Lane is a sack of monkey shit. So, we really only have three credible guys -- Matthews is a solid run-stopper inside, DiGiacomo and Jenkins are mixed-bag familiar guys who help with cohesion and chemistry, but really shouldn't be in major roles on a contending team. Emerson hasn't played a down yet, but probably could play for us at WILB this season, and earn a chemistry connection too. So...a ready-to-go LB would be a nice pull in round two of this draft as well. We'll be looking for free agent possibilities too, naturally. |
As expected, we end up with a LB in round two...I don't think he's a change-the-world guy but he looks like he can play. Will have to get a sense of his development to sort out where he fits best, but SLB and WILB are the two most likely slots I think. |
So, for more background, here's where we were last season, statistically. I am reluctant to use this, as I failed to submit my file and had a very messed up roster for the regular season, but there are at least some takeaways, I think.
7.5 ypa passing is okay (but not great) for a pass-a-lot team, but the 19/12 ratio is totally unacceptable. Ideally, if we're going to pass the ball 600 times, I want to get at least 8 ypa, and more like 35+ TDs. (The prior season, Gunn put up 505/8.7/48/11 and was among the candidates for OPOY). We had to deal off our WR2 for cap reasons, that may have played a big role, but honestly the point of the offense is mainly to get the ball to Duran (still 9.5 ypt in an off year), and to try to keep things honest otherwise. Defensively, it's hard to tell from these stats, but I feel we were just not good enough. The in-game summary would be better, but sadly that won't come up without loading old files, etc. So, I'll just say that my overall thinking here is: it's an old team, with some young skill players to build around. We're basically ready to go now, but need to have some quality guys behind our current old starters, that's my main focus. Main areas I'm trying to target for future contributors: DL, LB, TE, S, C Thus far in the rookie draft, we have ticked off the top two slots in order. That's not a retrofitted list, that's honestly where I was looking anyway. From here, I know I'm not good enough of a drafter to be likely to land anything too serious in rounds 4 or beyond, so I will be playing some chemistry fit guys in hopes of finding some rotation-caliber types who can stick around a while based on having one skill, special teams, or whatnot. That's more or less my m.o. in this game. I do have a fair number of day-three draft picks from years gone by still on my team, but I am pretty merciless with guys who don't look like long term fits, especially on defense where it's laborious to manufacture starts for them. |
In stages 3-4 of free agency, we add (and retain) some defensive beef:
Julian Ricks is long in the tooth, but a solid starter for us, and a big cohesion/chem help Marty Collins joins up on a cut-friendly deal. He's got a profile that's perfect for us to play almost anywhere, but most likely on the outside. If the rookie doesn't look ready, this is probably our starting LB. Not a long-term solution, but this team seems good enough to be thinking short term. Mark Rudoff rounds out the acquisitions here, and he's a big one for us. Real money in this deal. 7th year guy, so again not "the future" but I suspect he will be a future 8-sack guy for us. Career PR% under 4, we can get more out of him than that, I'm confident, as he'll rotate inside and out. Big find. Lying in the background here is a certain reality. These guys were basically the two best fits for us of all the available free agent players, in terms of skill sets but mostly chemistry. Yes, that's how I build my teams, and part of that is overpaying when the right guy comes along. I paid Rudoff $30m oevr 4 years with a fair bit on bonus, his other offers came in at 24 and 26. Not a huge split - I have been on the hook for a good deal worse in my pursuit of "just the right guy" in many leagues. Collins is a different story, my offer there (to such an old guy) was basically only going to get accepted if nobody else was willing to put in a qualifying offer (he was asking for a lot). It worked, he's mine, if I want him. (That $13m price tag might prove costly, but I eat no bonus if we walk away) Side note: it's a game weakness that this sort of contract is even entertained in this game, in my view So... sorry for today's posts being sorta out of order, but my defensive front is in much better shape after today's stuff than it was yesterday. Honestly, these were the three main things I wanted to do in free agency this offseason. Still glad to have some youth via the draft, but I'd rather ease them in than force them into critical roles immediately. |
Update by the numbers:
51 players signed + 6 expected rookie draftees Legal roster already aboard, except short a long snapper Leading bidder on 12 free agents I have a max offer of $19m, but have to leave some space to extend contracts with DE Harmon (6-10m) and possible WR Crook (3-4m). The big unknown here is QB Gunn. Last year of his $7m/yr deal, and by rights he should demand an extension. I dealt to get Irving Mathews as our likely starter next season, but in theory could go to him right away, especially if Gunn demands to get paid. Gunn only wants $22m, but at the moment his only real edge on Mathews is one excellent season in the books with us. |
FYI, I'm seeing that LB Collins probably cannot stay on the roster. He'd take over our leadership role if we release Klinghagen, unless I can find a free agent who could resolve that problem. Looking now, but I'm betting we will have to do without.
|
The backfield. Roster Reference
Okay, we have a bit of a mess on our hands here, but it will settle out, easily. Last year I had three first round picks (in the teens and twenties, natch), couldn't deal out, and ended up burning them on guys who looked good but not great. We drafted RB Gabe Banks among those spots, and got a useful-enough guy who looks like he has some solid skills, and posted 5.6ypc as the nominal RB1 last season with a wronged gameplan and roster. So, he's got a roster spot locked up. Banks is in the 10-11 group, part of the trio that we rebuilt our chemistry around to fit with WR Duran. He's 77 Leadership, 88 Personality, so he could end up as our long term answer as the group leader. The group leader spot is actually up for grabs here, as we released the 3-4 guy who was in that slot last season - he was angry about playing time, and we would have been unable to re-sign him anyhow. We have no fullback on this team (and no real plans to add one), so this is basically a game about filling in two remaining spots. On paper, I like the looks of Drake Bryant. He jumped on camp last year to 52/52 by my scout, and has no voids other than returning. So, he seems like the sort who would be a lovely RB2. In Atlanta, he posted nearly 5ypc in that role, then they let him walk. In BAL, in two seasons as a rotation guy, I have only gotten 3.0 and 2.6 ypc out of him - he's dead weight with us. Not a huge sample size, but... He's also in the same chem sign as Banks, which could be good or bad. Right now, he shows up as our chem leader, making Banks a non-affinity. Not wild about that. He's on the bubble as a possible cut. Veteran Tony Priar is a 9th year guy, who also got his start with ATL and roared to a couple huge seasons as the feature back in Ben's monster offense. In limited duty here, he was great two seasons ago, then sat last year out. Overall ratings of only 40/40, but he has a nice combo of Hole Rec and third down stuff that makes me think he could still give us another season as our third down back. 120 carries for 600 yards and a smattering of catches? I'd be fine with that. He's ideally suited as a chem follower (1/78) in the 5-6 grouping. So, the rest of these guys on the roster, signed or not, are basically auditioning for a role as RB3/affinity gimp: Charlie Nixon, 4th yr - 37/40, 3-4 group, 66L 86P - Decent mix of skills in the 40s Donnell James, 3rd yr - 29/38, 5-6 group, 86L 99P - 70ST, decent 3rd down skills Joshua Roberts, 2nd yr - 27/35, 3-4 group, 82L 99P - 72 Breakaway, 50/60 HoleRec Ernest Van Meter, 2nd yr - 23/30, 3-4 group, 82L 96P - 89 Breakaway, 66/74 Elus Relevant note: 3rd yr QB Mathews is in the 5-6 group with 87 personality - - - - - I know, nothing here is electrifying. But these are important guys for my way of team building. So, the fairly obvious thing to do here is probably: -cut either Bryant or Priar after Pre-season 2, depending on how badly Priar fades, but neither guy figures in our plans longer term -keep one of the 3-4 young RBs (Roberts?), get him starts this year to push him in as leader by the end of this season -see if James can lose weight from 220 to be a credible WR, thinking that a move to become an affinity leader there could be savvy longer term -figure the plan forward is Banks, [futureguy], and Roberts(?) in that order Chemistry figures into this, but RB is a strange position anyhow. Partially because I just don't understand what exactly makes guys good (seems like HoleRec is most people's #1, I'm still a sucker for the breakaway speed, and I have mixed experience with elusiveness)...and on top of that I seem to always have this situation I do now, where moderately-interesting marginal guys for a role like RB3/3rdDownRB, seem to be easy to come by. If we were cap crunched, another possible play here would be to keep two young guys this season, and have the depth chart look like: Banks / James / Roberts. The season would start out with Banks as the leader, but I think Roberts would take it after qualifying, and we'd have a strong triple affinity either way. Can't rule that out, especially with Banks having 76 endurance, and presumably being up for 18 carries a game (with the others getting maybe 6 total). |
Draft update: In rounds 4 and 5, we stay on the defensive side of the ball. Round 4 is LB Fernando Stephens, a run-stopper guy with a maxed-out punishing hitter rating - that along with his affinity is enough for my flyer here. Round 5 is CB Nathaniel Hakeem, one of those guys rated pretty highly on the in-game big board, but no really attractive bars to speak of. If he merely lives up to his apparent profile, he should be a marginal rotation-caliber DB with multiple skill voids. Not very exciting, admittedly. He'll likely need to give us a plus camp to make the roster this season.
By the way, round 4 v 5 is a big drop for the chemistry-obsessed. LB Stephens gets a free year of affinity effects, even without any starts. He's nearly a lock to make the final 53. Hakeem, not so much, because he'll need to rack up starts to get past "potential affinity" status. |
Round 6 - another DB, big hitter, ballhwak type but rotten zone coverage. 184 pounds. Tough to know where he would play for us. Coverage skills seem better for a corner. Special teams bar likely determines whether he has any future, it looks good, but the coming reveal will tell the story there.
|
And Round 7, defensive lineman. Another guy fairly far up the default "big board" but still available late, so Ben's AI routines must not like him. He's a modest-bars guy with no apparent voids. That sometimes yields a little preseason bump and some room for optimism - we'll hang out hat on there.
|
Free Agency, Stages 6-7
Nothing thrilling, one thing important to me. We re-sign DE Tommy Newton, he's a 10th year former 7th round pick, and sets up as our likely D7 affinity leader this year (after a retirement voided that role). He gives us great cohesion, a 90 personality in the right sign group, and some special teams capability. I wish he were a minsal guy, but I had to pay him 2.9+0.6 each year to get him to sign -- but for me, and how I run this team, it's worth it. Downside with him is his personality is only 60, so to clear the path for him to be our group leader for a few years, I will need to cut LB Klinghagen and Collins, meaning our LB corps will be thinned out considerably. That's our likely direction, though. Other FA 1:6-7 signings: $7m/yr (cut-friendly) RB Cooper Mayo who makes our decisions there even trickier $12m/yr TE Carlton Pearson signed to be a co-starter for us (perfect fit) minsal WR Larry Woodworth, strong affinity guy, could get 25 targets minsal OG Abraham Dawson, would need starts to fit, just camp fodder $5m/yr OG Luis Strong, weak affinity, basically an insurance play here $3.5m/yr LB Lance Shapiro, solid affinity guy and zone defender, good pickup minsal 98-rated long snapper Antonio Kampman re-signed Pretty big stage for us, especially since I just announced we were basically done. TE Pearson and LB Shapiro will play a lot, DE Newton isn't exciting statistically but he's important to the roster structure. |
Nothing of note today, really. Draft wrapped up, but we still have a FA stage before the big reveal -- most notably whether QB Gunn holds out on us.
I did a few cap-out renegotiations, but my only new signing is minsal veteran TE Brendan Houston, who is just a fallback plan for us (a possible affinity FB if I were to decide to go that way, looking unlikely now). |
Oops, I take that back. We signed another LB here, run-stopper Amir Roller. Our LB corps is crowded now with mediocre guys, and he fits into that mix nicely. We will suffer in cohesion, but I'm past worrying too much about having rotten talent. We'll be okay at least. (Though I think we are skewing a bit toward run-stopping now)
|
I think this will be the roster we take into late free agency, prior to adding rookies. I cleared out LB Klinghagen and Collins for affinity/cap reasons, and also released RB Bryant (if I'm keeping a veteran at RB2, it will be newly signed Mayo instead).
Code:
Front Office Football Eight |
To do list for internal roster solving:
-if Gunn holds out, decide whether we can cut him -figure out who plays where at LB, especially the Sam -same thing at CB/S, a few guys either need to get starts or get out -sort out RB situation (detailed above, but Mayo in the picture now) Crisis level is pretty low. If we go with Mathews at QB, there's a chance that he's just a pick machine, and will kill us. He was 24/21 in his rookie season which is okay, but the 6.6 ypa suggests it might have been a conservative offense, and that's a lot of picks for a dumpoff guy. In our system (which I am not changing) he would be asked to throw a lot, and if he's just pick prone, he could put up an unacceptable stat line of something like 4400-7.5-28/25 and play himself right out of our long term plans. |
So, why not change the offense? Basically because of this. I signed an unwanted hobo free agent Dave Fox, who had never thrown a TD pass in his short career, and he gave me one season like this -- 5275 yds, 8.5 ypa, 35/14 and the #5 QB in the league. (Side note - he did take 71 sacks and that's why he didn't get a second season, we went 7-9 after all)
My best player is my WR1. We targeted him 233 times and still managed to get 9.3 ypt from him, which is crazy. Average game for him is basically 14 targets, 9 catches, 130 yards and a TD. So... bottom line: Duran is a monster, this league doesn't let opponents overgameplan around him, and nobody gets hurt. Put it all together, and this is what we are going to do. If it's Gunn back there, I'll be hoping for another season with a passer rating well over 100. If it's Mathews, I'll be less optimistic, but still expect us to be up and down the field by the air. I like the guys we have in place at RB, and our running game ought to be credible, but make no mistake -- we run just to keep teams honest. We win by throwing the ball to our best player(s). |
Gunn holds out. Yup. Easy to see coming.
So, let's take stock. I have $19m under the cap, and am going to need around $10m to extend DE Harmon, which I plan to do. DE Bernard is also holding out, and is a cut candidate - that would save us another $10m or so. If I wanted to extend WR Crook, that would cost me another $5m or so. Gunn wants to go from $7m to $24m, and get another year. He's rated 43/43 now, and in year 13 is a candidate (but not a certainty) to slide down another 5 points or so in overall rating. We have Mathews on the roster and just re-signed chem backup Barton, so cutting Gunn is firmly on the table here. Not really because we are cap strapped, just because the case for him being leaps and bounds better than Mathews isn't that strong, and Gunn is not the future under any circumstances. So, this isn't the crisis it seemed like it could be. I'll consider a fat one year deal, but won't sacrifice a major re-signing to do it. |
Ben's algorithm rates our rookie class #27 out of 32. That's not adjusted for draft position, it's not "value," it's just quality of the picks by a fairly reliable metric that I don't understand. Ben's Falcons finished #1, despite drafting from the #25 slot.
So, that's probably a fair assessment of how we did in adding talent. From my eye: DT Broomfield looks fine, but nothing special, i.e. no maxed-out ratings - ought to be a rotation caliber guy for some time, and will be a chem monster (36 leadership, 99 personality) which helps (and is impossible to forecast in the "improved" FOF game) LB Lincoln looks like he should be pretty good, I think, I like that pick now, though I don't think he's the Sam we were hoping for, but he may be our Will for a long time My other defensive picks all look... meh. Even if we get a couple of these guys show some signs of life in preseason (that fickle move from 24/36 to 29/41 from a guy like CB Hakeem) it will still be tough to see anyone truly earning starts to get plugged in as a long term asset. Yeah... bad draft overall, probably. Fairly typical. |
So, what should I make of a guy like RB Cooper Mayo?
I realize he's an 8th year guy, this is not a build-around player for us. What interests me is his productivity. Drafted in the late 1st round, after one decent-not-great rookie year he gets traded to STL, a team that's usually a contender (so I don't suspect a dumbass gameplan in this mix). To my eye, Mayo looks pretty good... hardly any bad bars, big breakaway/outside ratings, and no voids. Seems to me like he should have been a solid RB1 for a long time. Instead, he muddles around, getting three total seasons with 200+ carries, and a few more as a rotation guy. One season, he posts nice numbers - 201-1,041 for 5.18 ypc. He had another season with a weird 14 TD tally. But for his career, he's barely 4 ypc, and in FOF I think you expect more from that if you're investing in the position with either an early pick or a fat contract. So... is this guy basically no good? I concluded that my recent castoff Drake Bryant was apparently just no good, despite a set of bars that looked decent-to-good to me. I confess I don't understand running backs in this game. Maybe it's sample size. Maybe it's gameplan. Regardless... I would really like to have a sparkplug RB2 in this offense, and on paper, to me, Mayo looks like he should be that guy... I'd love to see him post 80-450 on the season, as a change-of-pace to our straight-ahead starter Banks getting me 200-1100. But if Mayo instead delivers 80-350, I'm flushing money down the drain, and should instead just be using one of these young high-personality affinity clowns in that job. Anyone can give us 4 yards a carry behind this line, and in this offense. So... beats me. I suspect I will just trust the bars that I see, and give him that hundred carries to prove me right or wrong. |
Late free agency, pretty quiet. Biggest signing is a 4th year CB Chester Williams, who looks like a usable rotation player at CB, and who already has enough starts to earn chemistry effects (meaningful to us). My guess is he makes the roster and maybe sticks around for us for a long time as a CB4/CB5 type, but he's in a weird zone where he's not exactly "good" at much of anything -- decent coverage, decent special teams, some kick returning, and mediocre chemistry strength. Some of these guys get washed out in this league, since it's a no-injury league. In another league he'd be a much more valuable pickup, a guy who could actually step in give you 8 starts if a key starter suffered a big injury.
|
...the guy who Williams (above) might edge out is last year's 2nd round pick (sigh), Raymond Fenimore. Fenimore hasn't earned any starts, and has a bit less going for him in the apparent ratings department, and no special teams. We would have to manufacture starts for him to make a chem connection -- often with a former 2nd rounder I might do that, but here, perhaps not. Despite whatever I thought I saw in Fenimore last season in the draft, he looks like an odd man out for all those reasons.
|
Interesting guy I missed out in during the FA bidding this stage:
WR Skip Springer Not a perfect fit for us - we throw downfield more than this guy really wants to, but if we were building this team up and looking for role players, have to like this guy's potential for big YAC, right? I'm kinda miffed I didn't push harder to land him, even just for a strong affinity and maybe 40 targets a season. |
whiny, bitchy voice
Yesterday, I had prepped a file including a handful of things to do - some training camp weight changes, a contract offer to DE Bernard, that sort of stuff. But I failed to send it in from my work computer. Then my remote-in app failed me for some reason, and I DARE NOT send in a file from my home computer, lest my gameplan be rendered a total mess. Alas, no file in a critical stage, once again. It's my mistake, but the game sure doesn't make much of an effort to soften the blow when this sort of thing happens. I know, it's my fault for playing the game in an unconventional manner. /rant |
Okay, so the missing file basically means a few fairly small things.
I will put in a reneg offer for DE Bernard, but it's all-or-nothing. I feel I need him this year, to have a credible DE rotation, so I'll give him what he wants - even though that may well leave us with $3m+ in dead cap next year. Even if he fades in preseason (likely) a returning affinity DE with 65 PRTech and PRStr should be worth the money this year. Suck it up, buttercup. DT Rudoff is probably an equal partner in the DE rotation this season, and will presumably be our DE1 next year. I do not expect to re-up now with DE Dillon Harmon, he wants $45m/yr and I just can't swing that much cap space his way. I will consider a strong offer next offseason, but it won't be $40 plus. Past that, not a ton to report. We'll see how some of the young'ns look after a couple clicks of preseason. But I'm not really counting on them for a lot here. This year will mostly be about whether this offense is basically idiot-proof because of our skill position players, or whether a shaky QB can mess it up. The defense... well, who the hell knows? |
Okay, today's a big day. Preseason is over, and we have to set things up for tomorrow's one-shot regular season.
Quick news: my draft has moved up the ratings to 17th in the league...not great, but not near the top, either. My overall assessment is that DT Broomfield (+1 to 44/71) will develop into a solid starter, LB Lincoln will be a longtime starter for us (solid skills but low endurance), 5th rd CB Hakeem may be a rotation guy, and undrafted LB Charlie Knight probably sticks, too. Trying to sort out the RB situation, and that's proving tricky as presumably my last cut-down. Will post the roster as we head into the regular season later today. |
Code:
Front Office Football Eight Pretty sure this is it. We are not optimized for chemistry, falling short in a few slots, but we'll be better off there than anyone in the league, even the others who are trying to use this route to build rosters. For reference: Code:
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Attitude Advisory So, a few weaknesses here. RT McWilliams sat out last year on my missed-file mistake, and is pissed off. We lost our good OL group leader, and couldn't find a strong replacement. But if things work out, McWilliams will be happy after starting this year (despite a ratings slip), and will step into that role and bring everyone together in time. RB should shift midseason, after Roberts gets his starts, and they will be major exceptional affinities. Roberts doesn't look like much, but he projects as RB3 forever for us, now -- he'll anchor our chemistry and connect with both our young QB and RB starters. We won't be able to get WR Woodworth plugged in this year, just not enough starts to go around. I'm not willing to sacrifice 16 targets to Duran to get that taken care of, so it will wait until next year. Rest looks fine. One DE and one CB grabbed for skills, ignoring chemistry, everyone else on the whole defense is on board. A couple guys are just steeping until ready later, like S Patten and LB Knight. We'll see if they ever graduate to get starts. |
Goals for this season:
-offense back into top tier, at least in gross yardage and points -defense...idano, middle of the pack overall -QB Mathews not a pick machine, give me 8.5 ypa and better than 2:1 ratio -12 wins and a bye week We'll see. |
In Ben's preseason power ratings, we are 8th.
Cleveland is rated #2, and comes off another outstanding draft, so maybe my hopes of a bye week are a bit ambitious. We should be in the mix for the playoffs, and I'd like to think we are a possible elite team, but if I were simply predicting (rather than hoping) I'd peg us more like a 10-6 #5 seed. |
So, today is (for us, usually) the BIG reveal day. Since we tend to just lay an egg in the postseason anyway, we basically just live for regular season glory.
Yesterday, I had waffled on predicting 12-4/bye and 10-6/WC... but I had not considered a blended option... Code:
Front Office Football Eight So, we end up 12-4, but that's only good enough for the wild card, as the Browns lived up to billing and went 12-3-1 for the bye week. Ugh. |
First things first. Luke Duran. How does this performance NOT merit being named league MVP? 2500 yards on 9.3 ypt and 30 TD?
|
Okay, some grade-carding, quickly:
QB Mathews - he's good enough. Too many picks, but we can take the bottom line numbers (being buoyed by a superstar WR getting an insane 17 targets a game). WR Duran - monster. Running game - barely acceptable. Mayo just stinks, as we feared, those bars are just a lie, I guess. Banks only fumbles 4 times and gives us B-grade stats...we'll take it. Pass rush - fine. 20.7 PR% is top-five, DE Rudoff fit right in. Harmon is still our best guy. Rotation was fine. Run defense - meh, too hard to gauge. I suspect we're okay there, but we lack a true run-stuffer at SLB, which I prefer. Pass defense overall - 6.4 ypa allowed, I like it a lot, especially given how young/new we are. Over time, give guys like Upshaw and Evans a few years to become cohesion assets, and we ought to be above average here for a long time. Anyway... basically pleased with this offseason, and the payoff here. Tough luck to be in the division with a top-tier foe like ... Cleveland? Anyway, we'll hope for the best in the playoffs, anything can happen, but we fully understand that it just doesn't happen for us. |
Hmm, looking at our TE situation. Without revealing a ton of junk about the gameplan, I had expected to see my top two TEs more or less split the targets this year. I had Doss in as the FB in most of the formations where we had one (have zero on the roster), but also used him in the 1-2-2 and 1-3-1 personnel as the Y. Pearson, the $12m/yr new guy, was supposed to be the nominal starter, and I thought he'd probably get around 80 targets, and Doss maybe 50-60.
Turns out: Pearson (55/55, GD 40, RR 49, BP 54) 452 pass plays, 56 targets, 68% comp, 9.8 ypc, 6.6 ypt, 107 yac Doss (48/48, GD 79, RR 50, BP 47) 414 pass plays, 83 targets, 80% comp, 9.8 ypc, 7.9 ypt, 405 yac Hmmm... I initially found it hard to believe that Doss was actually picking up a lot of FB targets and making that much hay out of them, but I'm leaning toward that theory. The impressive YAC seems to seal the deal for me (and his GD rating backs it up). Might be onto something there... if half of that production came from the FB slot, that's way above replacement, right? |
Relevant side note. Should have extended QB Mathews. He was asking for $12m/yr I think, and was open to a 4yr deal. Next year is year 4 of his rookie contract, and we will have to pay him. I'm guessing that will costs me twice that, after this 5,100yd/47TD season.
|
*crowd noise*
IR-VING MATH-EWS clap, clap, clap-clap-clap IR-VING MATH-EWS clap, clap, clap-clap-clap IR-VING MATH-EWS clap, clap, clap-clap-clap *crowd noise* |
Oh boy...Matthews came apart at the seams.
|
So..postseason. About what I might have expected.
2067 Postseason Complete We get a road win, then lose at Kansas City (chanting corbes, from above, the GM who dispatched us). It's fine, we got what we deserved, more or less. Good season, and I feel like we have some solid momentum toward next year, an presumably the Irving Mathews era (which is really just a chapter of the continuing Luke Duran era, truth be told). |
Yup, Mathews is gonna get paid. Asking for 4/118, so my guess that he'd end up with $25/yr sounds just about right. Don't really have another option here, I don't think, after that first season.
|
Setting up for early free agency, and we are surprisingly set already. 45 players signed, and looking quickly, no more than a few who are obvious candidates to replace easily.
Offseason targets, more or less: -long term help along the DL (Broomfield fine, but have nobody else young) -right side of offensive line (improve on old RG, faded RT) -D7 chemistry leadership after retirement loss -RB2 (I guess this Mayo guy just sucks) -WR chem leadership I'm always open to a big move that turns a B into an A somewhere, but as far as serious needs go, the list is pretty short this year. If I can land a long term pass rusher asset in the draft, that would pretty much be all we really need. But...with $100m in cap space, we have to at least dabble around. So, stay tuned. |
So, we can neither confirm nor deny the rumors that the Ravens actually talked with another team about trading away QB Irving Mathews. We would aggressively restate that we are committed to him as our build-around passer going forward, and resist any suggestions to the contrary.
Now, it is also true that we will be watching a certain combine-freak QB Kai "The Golden Hurricane" DeVore with some particular interest in the seasons ahead. Just for, you know, academic purposes. |
I'd also take the wager that over DeVore's likely brilliant career, if we use a simple additive total of passing TDs plus 100yds passing, he will never have a season that tops Mathews' 51+47=98 from last year. So, there's that.
|
First stage of free agency, there are HUGE fish out there, and with all this cap space, I had to drop in my pole. Several solid offers, but only one lands my my target - I overpaid for a top tier CB who should be a great fit, Pedro Sutter. $27m/yr is a lot to pay a guy who has yet to really deliver CB1-caliber stats, but we should get more from him, I think.
We also re-up with DE Dillon Harmon. With those two moves, and an anticipated extension with QB Mathews, we are probably done with big splash moves this offseason, already. I know I said that last offseason, and didn't follow through, but here I think we're just splashing around the rest of the way. |
In round one, we take a DL, pretty much as I pledged we would. I'll skip the screen shot, but Damian Baker is a 314 lb DT (late in the first round, it's far more likely to get quality at DT than DE) whom we hope will lose a little weight and slide out to play at LDE for us. Maxed-out PRStrength, no void skills, pretty solid combines -- but not the "perfect bar" combination, and his PRTech looks like it might project to something in the 40s or 50s. This isn't a home run swing, much like last year we're just trying to get a base hit with a need-driven pick. I have a devil of a time getting quality D-linemen anywhere past round one, so this is pretty normal for me to draft at this position.
|
QB Irving Mathews signs my first serious contract offer -- presumably meaning I could have screwed him more than I realized. 5/110 is less than he would have made in the open market, I guess. He's not an apparently massive talent -- only rated 50/50 overall by my scout -- but getting a "good enough" guy at QB is pretty essential, just like in that other league. So, he fits the bill, fits in with our chem scheme, and we're done for a while at that position. Yay.
|
No new F signings this stage. We weren't even beat out for anyone. Told you I was mainly done.
We are the high bidder on 5 free agents, none over $5m/yr, so we are still active - just not in the exciting tier. We have competition for DT Chandler Mallard, a nice rotation-caliber DT who is mainly a pass rusher. A 10th year guy, not exactly our future, but he's an affinity and a guy who has played with us for three seasons, so we will have to weight an offer to retain him over Kansas City (snarls at corbes). Not a crisis either way, really, especially after spending a first round pick on the DL already. For the stages ahead, I really don't have any fires I'm trying to put out. We will likely sign a few more of my style of guys (rotation-caliber skills, affinity, not hotly pursued by anyone else) to cut-friendly deals, just to have some camp stiffs. Every year a couple of these guys stick on something like 2xMinSal and end up staying on the team for 3,6,9 seasons. In a no-injury league, you can plan more firmly for the long term, and can afford to further marginalize some of the positions on your depth chart at the moment. |
This spot is always fun. The guy who was #2 on my draft target list when I selected in late round 1 - he's still there at pick 2.19, only 7 pics away from us at 2.26. He's not a super standout, just an affinity fit at a need position who looks like he'd make a nice long term starter for us in this league. Fine for a 2st rounder, bur GREAT for a 2nd rounder -- at least as far as my experience goes.
Recall, my quick self-confession is that I am not a talented drafter... in part this is because I really only look seriously at a sixth of the players out there, but there's no way to fully chicken-and-egg this stuff. Do I play/organize through chemistry and sacrifice great draft picks to do so? Or do I play/organize through chemistry because I'm not good enough to make great draft picks, and this is a workaround for that? Anyway... in a more nearly perfect world, I'd burn up the phone lines trying to deal up for this pick. But I'm getting ready to check out of a hotel room in Austin, I have my sights set on a bak'n cheezeburger for lunch, and I simply don't have the luxury of attending to much FOF stuff right now. So, if my guy lands in m lap, I'll be delighted -- it's not out of the question, but my usual luck would dictate that he'll fall to one pick before mine, just to maximize the irritation. |
Well, anguish resolved quickly. My target guy, a low-endurance but otherwise big-bars Guard, went at pick 20. We'll be fine.
|
Oh, and while I'm here in Austin, I'm getting a lot of pressure from the townsfolk to extend our contract with Zach Chritakes, our hard-hitting strong safety who sadly can't seem to figure out how to play zone coverage. I reckon I will do so, and make the local fans happy - he grew up in Dripping Springs, just a little ways out of town. I've been seeing a fair number of Ravens "39" jerseys being worn by local lesbians, I don't even know what to make of all that (is it some sort of sexual position?), but I'll take whatever demographic edge I can get. He wants $15/yr, I figure we'll settle around $11.
|
With our 2nd round pick, we grab WR Kirk Jacobs, a guy we target to complement our downfield targets (Stallings and Vukmir, BPR 100 and 94, respectively). Right now, we have WR Larry Woodworth in this role - he's nothing too special, but a 71 GD and 67 3rdD guy. But Woodworth has an 8 in courage, and a void in both route running and adjusting to ball.
So...if WR Jacobs develops the way we want, he will become the guy we work underneath for something like 60-80 targets, hopefully settling in at 8-9 yards per target, meaning maybe 600 yards. He's also got special teams skills to contribute there (but not a max/gunner type). Low endurance, not a WR1, but a good WR3, I think. |
Draft update:
Rd3: uninspiring OT, if he lives up to his bars, he’d project out as a good-enough-to-start LT (pass blocking focused), but not that thrilling, no reason to think this is a big sneaky pick at this point. Rd4: intriguing pick here, a 314lb DT one-trick pony, but it’s the one I like best, pass rushing. Lukas Shepherd was rated #34 on the FOF big board (whatever that means), my scout legs his PRTech at 62-99, and his 4.96 dash backs it up a bit. So, if he develops into a 5-sack pass rush specialist in time, great 4th rounder for us here. I’m optimistic. (Don’t recall why we passed in Rd3) |
...to be fair, RT is a major problem areas for us, so getting a young player there does make sense. We had our hoped-for long term good-enough guy fall apart after a year on the bench, so we’re awfully thin there. If rookie Francisco McDonald looks promising, he definitely could walk right into a starting job. That’s presumably the main logic behind picking him.
|
Quote:
RB Mayo has had an oddly star-crossed career. To start with I used a first round pick to draft him, which I would normally never do for an RB but did anyway because I thought he was an affinity. Then I realised I pasted the csvs into my spreadsheet wrong and he wasn't an affinity. His bars were great so he had some trade value and I dealt him away, fully expecting him to be a star elsewhere. But somehow he just hasn't, and eventually despite the bars it just became replacement-level production. Only one season where he lived up to potential. I thought slotting him into an affinity system would tease it out...but no. Really don't get this guy. Burned a few of us. |
Yeah, I honestly just don't get the RB position in this game. My underlying theory is that Jim did some research/modeling based on real-like NFL RB production, and put something into the game in some fashion to leave us with the same basic impression that most of us have about the NFL RB position-- that it seems like it's the easiest position to get replacement-level production from late-round or unheralded, undrafted guys. There's some logic there, I reckon... growing up lots of the most athletic and talented kids would play RB because it was a high-impact position, so it does make sense that the 10th best RB in, say, the SEC in a given year's draft class is probably a really good athlete/player.
Anyway...I don't understand Mayo, and basically tend to look at and trust stats more at the RB position than any other. |
(Returned from a conference)
So, the draft wrapped up unspectacularly: 5th: LB Robert Lester, coverage-first guy, possible gunner 6th: S Lamont Shireman, decent bars, mas Int, but troubling void at PH 7th: LB Joel Melchior, max ST guy with big PH bar, not much else In Ben's after-daft automated warp-up, we are ranked ... (drumroll) ... 29th. Ben's Falcons are rated 1st, naturally, from the 29 spot. From what I see in-game: DT Damian Baker looks like not much, we'll have to hope for a ratings boom, which I think is consistent with his bar profile, but he'll need a big bump to make that 1st round pick look good. WR Jacobs looks fine, but his GD is no longer maxed-out, so that doesn't look like great value either. The special teams LBs look like they'll be more or less what I wanted. Past that... yeah, 29th rated draft sounds about right. |
We have three holdouts, too, which is nice. S Christakes is asking for more money, for christsakes. He'll get paid. 4th year CB Brenden Upshaw wants $14m/yr after one very good season (7 picks and an 86 PD% rating). That would be awfully hard to choke down. And LB Erick Emerson comes off his first season as a starter, wanting $9m/yr. Also tough to justify. But these are the inherent dilemmas that come with emphasizing cohesion and chemistry-- replacing these guys with more affordable players with comparable skills can be done, but I lose a lot of what makes this team tick. Will need to look carefully at all three guys here, and sort out who really figures to be important to this team for the next 5 seasons.
Prior to the holdouts, my plan would have been to only reneg Chtistakes, and then pursue the other in open free agency. Now my hand might be forced. |
The holdouts are likely to put TE Carlton Pearson onto the bubble. He's making a cut-friendly $12m, won't reneg down from that, and comes of a very uninspiring season of 6.6 yards per target. If we think that Doss (costing $2.3m, netting 7.9 ypt) is going to be as effective, then dumping Pearson to clear out cap space is an easy call. That's a better than 50/50 proposition, I'd say.
|
Okay, late free agency wraps in one shot. We signed a bunch of minsal fill-in types, I tend to end up with one or two per season who actually make the roster, so this is not a wholly empty pursuit.
Holdout update: S Christakes signs his long term offer, he will stay around to patrol the strong side for a long time. We'll work around his weak zone coverage. CB Upshaw and LB Emerson both turn theirs down. In this fast-paced offseason, this stage is it -- either they sign, or they won't get in to play this year. So, I will need to either clear the way for their requested offers, or else be prepared to lose them. I have about $10m in cap space left, this is not an easy proposition. (Driven mostly by the fat contract with free agent CB Pedro Sutter, so yes, this is of my own doing mainly) |
...following up on earlier musings, we'll release TE Pearson and his $12m salary, to re-up with our two holdouts. My plan is basically to let TE Doss play out his 4th year under his rookie contract, and we'll see if we can re-sign him next year. I don't think he is a true $10m player, and that's what it would take to extend him. We'll have a capable rotation of guys at TE this season, and our goal is NOT to be winning by throwing to the tight ends anyhow.
|
Biggest issues to resolve for this year's roster:
RB2 again - just like last year, pretty wide open among several guys, nobody special in the mix, just hoping to get a guy who can give us 80-400. TE mix - with Pearon out, it will be Doss and a bunch of guys filling TE2, TE3, and FB1 roles. Nobody special here, either. CB rotation - we are now very deep here, and need to keep everyone content. If the offense works properly, we'll have a lot of leads, and will need to go 5-deep here. Chemistry stuff - hope to have an answer here tomorrow, if it doesn't work out I will be scrambling. This team needs all its hard-fought advantages to click. |
In training camp news -- division rival Cleveland let their 62/62 WR hold out, but against all odds he ended his own holdout and reported this stage. Rats.
Our two holdouts re-signed this stage, as expected. I did some position shuffling along the DL - rookie Baker will line up at LDE, and pass-rusher Shepherd at RDE. Honestly, I don't think enough people do this stuff to match up skills with roles... I've heard way too much chatter about draft picks ("he's not good at -pickaskill- and I need that for my strong-side backer") that suggest people don't treat these positions as fungibly as they truly are. |
Cutting down to 60 for preseason means making some decisions that matter:
At RB/FB, only two jobs are safe: starter Banks, and leader Roberts. Roberts is theoretically good enough to get some carries, but ideally he's just a spot duty guy in a no-injury league. 3rd year Les O'Dwyer is a shifty special teamer, but lacks the blitz protection to really be a major 3rd down back. Undrafted rookies Earl Blackburn and Van Aldridge are likely to be getting the main looks for the RB2 role. Minsal TE Duane Reed could slide into a FB role if we're unhappy with the RB group. I think Blackburn could get a preseason bump and win this thing. Nobody's getting cut right away. At TE, Doss is the starter, and Brenden Houston is the ballgagged affinity gimp. Myles Henson is locked in as the TE2 with his maxed-out GD rating. That leaves Reid on the fence, but unlikely to stay any longer than preseason. Ondre gets cut here, he's too catching-only. WR Larry Woodworth is cut, no longer an affinity after our leadership switch. FA Everett Buel steps into that role for now, and we hope that rookie Kirk Jacobs will hold it for the long term (though I'm now skeptical). Stallings will take the main SE role over Vukmir, but both will play a lot. Decent-at-everything Dusty Tatum is in the twilight zone, without a real role defined for him. 2nd year Cesar Jeffries has a 99 personality, but won't make it here to connect, he's out. OL: Have 8 guys, plan to carry only 7. Rookie T McDonald looks like spare parts, plus only had a 5 personality, so he can't be a long term asset for us I don't think. Hate cutting a 3rd rounder, but... it could happen. Neither he nor the other rookie (undrafted G Benson) will get starts for an affinity this year - we might even explore signing someone who would connect right away. LB: Biggest news is that S Cesar Howe bulks up to move up to WLB. He won't be a difference maker on the field, but we needed him for chem leadership. With that move, I have new signing CB/S Jon Hammond drift back to free safety, and he'll anchor our chemistry there. I do some trimming to get to 11 LB - we'll be watching rookie LB Robert Lester as the most promising of the young lot, which clearly needs more pruning still. Our last 7 cuts will likely include 3 more LB. I cut down to 60, and know that we have to do another tier. This team always has about 58 guys I'd really like to keep, it gets painful. Sunk costs always play a role, too -- I've been carrying a reserve S thinking he'd one day get his chance, but now I realize he won't, and I cut him here. Should have cut him two years ago and at least booked an affinity for the last two seasons. |
Our draft still rates #29 overall. Division champion Cleveland rated #1. We need to double down on all this smoke and mirrors bullshit, either that or...egad...figure out how to draft better.
|
Quote:
Ok, back to figuring out how to keep WR Duran under 200 yards and multiple TDs per game...ugh. |
Okay, preseason wrapped up. Let's have a look at the rookie class. Those with sensitive stomachs may wish to avert their eyes, this isn't going to be pretty.
1 - 27 Damian Baker DT Now 40/48, didn’t get preseason bump I wanted, looks like a rotation player 2 - 26 Kirk Jacobs WR 36/60 with 80/86, he’s a nice 5th round pick to play in the slot, whom we took too early 3 - 27 Francisco McDonald T Nope. He’ll get cut. 4 - 26 Lucas Shepherd DT 31/46 and will make the team just for his affinity, but doubtful to be here next season 5 - 27 Robert Lester OLB 31/48 and +3 by the league scout, so maybe he’ll stick but unexciting 6 - 26 Lamont Shireman S 29/40, better suited to CB than S, bubble guy 7 - 27 Joel Melchior OLB UDFA Rodolfo Benson RG +6 to 26/35, good chemistry makes him a tough call, cannot manufacture starts for him UDFA Earl Blackburn RB 37/37, solid set of ratings (top 6 bars 50+ except HoleRec 32), likely RB2 UDFA Van Aldridge RB 29/29 but 54/57 HoleRec, if that skill is everything, he’s better than Earl B |
Ok, all our marginal stuff resolved. RB Blackburn makes RB2. Rookie S Shireman will make the team but stay inactive (waste of a possible affinity, I know, but we're likely to have two retirements at S and I think he could actually be a long term guy at S3/S4).
For this season, we'll try again to keep pace with johnnyshaka's Browns, but another year with a good record but not a bye seems like a real possibility. My guess is Duran can't replicate last season (seriously, now) but we are capable of another 11-5 season and a #5 seed. We'll hope instead for 13-3 and a bye week. And then, presumably, a standard playoff flop. |
So, this happened:
Code:
Front Office Football Eight ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
In brief:
WR Duran remained unstoppable, we managed over 8.5 YPT when targeting our WR2 and TE1, so the whole offense was pretty credible, with Mathews settling in and calming down on the picks. We ran less, who cares. We yielded only 6.2 yards per attempt passing, so we basically won on both sides of the most important thing in football, the air game. CB Sutter had a really nice season as our top cover guy, and free agent signee Peter Douglas immediately doubled his career sack total in his first shot as a major rotation pass rusher. Can't be upset about 16-0. Sorry not sorry, johnny. |
Division foe or not, I gotta tip my hat to that performance...well done, Quik!
|
Nice work
|
Yes, yes, very nicely done!
|
Well, the good news is - we won a couple playoff games, that's nice.
In the title game, this happened. Not going to hang this on anyone, stuff happens. Great season, exceeded expectations. We get the ball to start overtime of the championship game seeking to wrap up a perfect 19-0 season, and we come out slingin' it like we did all year. Yup, that's a fine way to lose if you're going to have to lose. |
Well, it's the summer of '69. Looking forward, this is going to be a keep-it-together sort of year. We're still paying a lot for CB Pedro Sutter, and we'll feel it. WR/Demigod Luke Duran needs to get paid, and that will eat up maybe $20-25 of my $50m in available cap space. We'll have a couple more tough calls among re-signings. But the likely situation here is that we do all we can to hold together this team, and we can't do much to improve on it. After a 16-0 season, that's fair, but uninteresting.
TE Doss wanted $10m/yr last offseason to re-up, I decided that was too much for a decent but not special talent. Now, he's basically our only returning startable guy, and he thinks he's worth $16m/yr. I don't...but do I harm our offensive cohesion like that after he nearly topped 1,000 yards? Making some free agent hobo into our third option doesn't sound appetizing, so that will be its own challenge. Chem problems in multiple places, too. That's not exciting to read/write about, but we have work to do there as well. |
Ok. Fairly big news over the real-life weekend. Arizona calls, they’re a strong franchise coming off a rough season, and they want WR Stallings, whom we have blocked. We quickly agree to a deal, and we deal him for their pick at 1.11. So, that’s a pretty big, impactful move at this point of a tough offseason.
Context matters. First - this works out great on its surface. stallings came aboard via pick 1.17, gave us three seasons of well-over-replacement caliber play, and the nets us a higher pick. so, tough to complain there. Now, the downside. He was a meaningful part of ano overpowering offense last year, and we’re letting him scamper away? He’s younger then Duran, shouldn’t he be the heir-apparent there, the guy good enough to let us keep running this silly offense even after Duran hangs em up? Fair points, there’s a strong case to be made that Stallings is a keep-forever guy, a guy you work backwards from (like I am with Duran this offseason). My setup is basically this: the cost of re-signing Stallings would be pretty big. He’s likely to require $24m/yr, perhaps more. This offseason, affording that definitely means we can’t extend OG Corwin Mason, a star for us at LG. I know, guards are guards, but this guy is elite. I’d be cap crippled this season, and awfully thin, for years to come, if we re-did a long term deal with Stallings to be our WR2. Now, that role presumably goes to WR Clayton Vukmir. He’s signed for 9/yr this season and next, and could possibly extend longer this offseason because he was little-used last season. Vukmir has good skills on paper — 88 BPR, 59/59 overall, solid endurance. This guy will be, on paper, one of the top handful of WR2s in this eagle, I’d guess. So...that is come comfort. Also, it bears mentioning...Vuimir is an affinity, Stallings was not. Right or not, it matters in my thinking. So...it’s done. With an earlier draft pick than I had anticipated, we have a chance to add a foundation caliber player (at pick 11, not likely at WR, more likely at OL or LB) but that’s good. So, we will plug in that assumption as we think about this season ahead. |
Here’s Vukmir, the guy who’s thrust into the spotlight:
http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=47692 For this season, we’d like to see 90 targets, 750 yards, and 7 TD from him. |
Stage FA 1:2...I apparently managed to fail to upload. Shit happens. I guess I'm lucky that in this particular offseason, it isn't a critical failure. I wasn't hot after specific free agents, etc. I know I did interviews, all that crap, and none of it registers. Alas...I don't see any of my players being signed elsewhere, so I guess I'm okay. Dumb, dumb, dumb - and this league is usually unforgiving, I think I'm lucky this time.
|
Okay, next shoe drops.
We deal picks 1.11, 1.31, and next years 2nd to move to pick 1.4... for... another receiver. Didn’t think this would come together (lots of AI teams picking early) but I’m glad to lock up WR Artie Dodge for our gang. If he pans out, he could be good enough to step into the WR1 role after Duran wraps. That’s the hope, at least. For now, he ought to give us a fully credible rotation at WR, and I’m cool with that. He would not have lasted to pick 11, I am very confident, he likely only dropped to 4 due to an owner asleep at the 1.3 wheel. |
So, with pick 11, I likely would have landed a good-looking run-blocking OT, who would have slotted in most likely as our long term RT. Pretty much who I had expected would be my BPA there.
Factoring in the actual foregone picks is helpful in assessing whether I overpaid to move up for the WR here. |
Link to GML? DDS league is slow-paced, and the faster pace of this league intrigues me.
|
Quote:
Here you go: General Manager League Forum It's a great league |
I think the super fast pace isn't for everyone, but it's GREAT for sandboxing. I don't run this offense anywhere else, but I love searching for the pieces to run it here, and stuck with it for a few seasons even without a legit QB to give all those passes to. It's fun.
|
Free Agency, stages 4-5: One signing, I'm thrilled, you won't be. 5th year LB Micah McCarthy was a 6th round pick for Miami, started out 24/39, developed to 47/47 (my scout says 44/44) and they basically let him walk. We sign him to a 2yr deal, and I'm hopeful this will be a long term signing. He does everything okay - rated 50-ish in lots of stuff, including RunD and ZoneCov. He's got high endurance, and a 95 personality for an Exceptional Affinity. This is the cornerstone of the way I build my rosters. Big signing for us, even if he's merely a 40-tackle guy as our LB5 for the next 6 years.
Last season's two over-market re-signings both settle for less. LB Erickson will make about $8m/yr, and CB Upshaw will make a shade less. Both figure into my longish term plans, so I'm fine guaranteeing money to bring down the cap hits. WR Duran turned down 5/135, so we will have to sweeten that a bit more. I have other free agent offers in, but nothing earth-moving. Looking to bring in some camp guys, some of whom fit in as likely-inactive roster fillers. In this league, with injuries off, I find it viable to just stash high-affinity guys as my inactive players, to at least get the juice from them. That means, sometimes, cutting underwhelming rookies who aren't ready to go... but the good news is I tend to have plenty of them soon after each draft! Round 2 draft pick likely will come later today, will update then. Just looking at the prospects a bit now. |
I had a busy weekend so hadn't seen that you moved up to get the WR until late last night...f'sakes!
I need to find a way to sneak an extra DB, or two, onto the field when we play you guys! |
That's what we're looking for out of a division rival!
|
Round 2 - we reluctantly draft DT Elliot Lind, who looks too much like a clone of a guy we took two seasons ago (I think) with the same setup -- big PR Str bar, but not a lot else going for him. I am not thrilled about this, but in a couple seasons when our current top-tier guys are gone, I feel like we'll have a youth movement along the DL where we have DT Broomfield on the nose, Baker (last year's 1st) as at least a rotation guy outside, and maybe Lind as the LDE. They could be good enough that one mercenary could round out the bunch and have us above average.
|
Draft update:
3.31 DT Scott Peters, a two skill guy -- stop the run, and play special teams. If he develops both of those skills up over, say, 70, he could be a nice fit rotation guy for us for a long time. 4.31 WR Wade Stutler - typical rotation guy here, high end hopes i that he develops 70 GD and 60 Courage, and gets playing time in the slot. 5.31 S Shawn Ellison - decent looking zone/bump/ST guy, about what I typically select in these lower rounds, looking for something to stick |
In free agency, the big news is just a new deal with WR Luke Duran. He's unstoppable, and he'll be on our payroll until he's fading, after a 5yr extension for $145m.
We sign a few guys: 9th year LB Glen Wilcox is good enough to play a bit, and takes the lead role in our chemistry up front. Not wild about only a 66 personality, but he's the best we could do. He'll play a bit, and help with the chemistry. 6th year CB Kennedy Van Pelt is decent, with a huge bar for "play diagnosis," whatever that is worth. We're deep at CB, he will battle for a spot. 9th year LB Nathan Tomlin is a run stuffer, special teamer, and stopgap at the thin LB group. Solid pickup, he will play a lot. 5th year DT Shave Rivers will compete for a rotation role, minsal TE Omar Heath might get some targets, and G Caldwell will just look to make the team as a chemistry asset. |
So, by the numbers, we have:
42 players signed 7 incoming rookie draftees 13 offers in on free agents (mostly uncontested) So, per usual, we will have a lot of pruning to do. I typically grab at least 5 more players in the late free agency stages, so we'll likely have to cut down to 60 for preseason. I'm a raffle ticket buyer here, and fairly often end up holding onto one or two guys who didn't seem likely to make the team when signed... guys like TE Omar Heath from this stage's signings. |
Draft wraps up, we take fleet-footed QB Thomas Parrish in round 6, and project TE Lionel Fravert in round 7. Both will contend for roster spots, but neither has an easy path. Our QB2 role should be up for grabs, but Parrish is only a single affinity (strike 1) and is 1% developed (strike 2) so, we'll see.
|
Grrrrrr... I spent a lot of time on a file for yesterday, and none of the moves in it got used. Site says it used a file on 5/23, but if so, it wasn't a final version. Ugh. Lots to do today, in the last stage of early free agency.
|
Our biggest free agent signing is S Bo Dennis, a 6th year guy with decent ratings and plus in interceptions. He gets real money, so he will stick - likely as alongside SS Christakes in a rotation with either 2nd year guys Shireman, or underwhelming veteran Braxton Cooper.
RB Joshua Roberts re-signed, spurning an offer from the Patriots. :evileye: He is our chemistry anchor, and in a more conventional league he'd be good enough for spot RB2 duty if we suffered an injury. Here, he's just an active roster guy without much to do. |
Welp, big twist. WR Artie Dodge looks pretty good (though not great, tbh) on first look... but what stands out most is the big blue SUSPENDED label on him. Yup, hes out this year for off-the-field conduct. New one on me.
So, we're back to Vukmir as our WR2, and we'll have to hope that Dodge still pans out despite missing his rookie year. Ugh. I'm cap crunched, have to cut holdout LB Amir Roller, and also newly signed LB Nathan Tomlin. We will be softer against the run as a result. I can live with that. Rest of the draft class looks lousy, basically. Standard. |
That sucks about the rookie WR (not!) but I wonder why he doesn't show up in Ben's report as being suspended?
|
Quote:
I dunno...I’ve never seen it happen to a rookie before, but today I got hit in both GML and IHOF. Ben runs both leagues. Just sayin... |
CONSPIRACY ALERT!!!!!
|
Late free agency:
A few twists here. I worked out several renegotiations, in order to clear cap space to try to sign TE Doss for a one year deal. I think his asking price was too high, and I didn't think anyone would pay him - not even AVAILABLE. But for cohesion/talent, I did not want to lose him this year. So, a 1yr bonus-loaded $8m deal at least got him listening, and my hope would have been to re-up with him next year on fairer terms. Intead, a human-owned team decided to move in and pay him for 3 years, and he took that offer instead. I gambled, I lost, and now we are likely going to suffer -- two of our top three targets from last year's magic carpet ride are gone, and will be replaced by substantially lesser stand-ins. This year, it looks like we will use TE Ricky Maloney as our TE1 -- he's a minsal free agent signee. Big dropoff from Doss, who is good (not great) at everything we like. I could have blunted this with a free agent signing, but I got outbid earlier on a venerable guy who would have made a nice chemistry leader there too. Ugh. Elsewhere, we grab a few undrafted rookies, nothing special I don't think. I like the looks of CB Gavin Cortez the best of the lot, he's one of those no-zone corners who look decent on paper, but basically can't play in multi-CB formations, meaning he's good for what, exactly? Right. I have to skip this stage (training camp) today, as I don't have access to my main FOF computer and don't want to risk messing up my playbook/gameplan for the whole season. Alas, we'll head into camp looking a couple pegs down from last year, and without some of the tweaking that I'd prefer to do here. |
TL;DR
If we're going to be a serious contender this season, Luke Duran is going to have to LeBron us there. |
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:36 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.