This has to be an attempt by the regime to drive people to religion.

SPCE is down 23% so far today. Still in the black though.

At least I got my 2 months of toilet paper and lysol spray.

How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

Timing the market is somewhere between hard and impossible.

Timing the market with the added complication of pandemic panic seems even more so.

Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)

I'm kind of in the same boat. I have some money I want to throw into my index fund but I'm waiting for the "low point". I might throw in some today.

I have no doubt that the world will get past the virus and the stock market will grow past where we are now.

And if you lose, just keep doubling until you win!

You could break the money you want to invest into a number of chunks, and buy in with another chunk every week or two.

Everything I've read says, unless you are a Warren Buffet like or have insider trading info, don't try to time the market. Assuming you have a long time horizon, investing in a solid, diversified fund/ETF(s) is the way to go.

With that said, we've hit correction territory already (-10% from high), I think there is a good chance it'll be real rocky and lean downwards (let's get the long overdue bear market -20% out of the way) until we get better news on the coronavirus (e.g. vaccine, its not as bad as China etc.)

Yep, I'm a big fan of Dollar Cost Averaging and just buy on a regular basis.

Noted virologists Mnuchin and Kudlow added to the coronavirus task force while Pence has time to deliver a speech at CPAC.

edit: The scientists have been told they can't speak publically without running it by Pence first.

Interesting. Every person I've talked to has said "red". Who can you believe?!

I can't imagine we're anywhere close to the bottom. Wait until schools close and sporting events are canceled. There's a lot of disruption still to come.

Yeah. I'm reluctantly in the camp that thinks things are going to get BAD with the virus. And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.

Japan has now closed all schools for a month to limit the spread.

I tend to be in the other camp just because the media likes to over hype these kinds of issues.

But then again I'm usually wrong about these things.

I sort of feel this too, but I feel like there is currently a massive amount of fearmongering and clickbait titles going around right now that doesn't seem helpful. I had a news notification on my phone this mornign and the title was something like "You'll probably catch Coronavirus at some point" :redface:

Right now I'm just stocking up a little extra on canned goods each time I go get groceries, so if things do get worse I don't have to do it in a panic when everyone else in the country is doing the same thing.


As far as stocks/401k's go, I'm in the "do not try to time the market" camp. Just keep contributing whatever you are right now on the same schedule. The market will recover, and you'll have been making regular contributions at various points all the way down and when it recovers you'll reap the rewards, all good.

I have a lot of my 401K money in a 2045 retirement fund (for exactly the reason of not trying to time the market). My brother in-law had an interesting idea I did last week. Basically, I just moved that 2045 fund money into a 2025 fund (much "safer" fund). Once things start to pickup again, I can just make a transaction to move it back to the 2045 fund. It probably won't make a big difference down the line, but even if I save 3-5% of the value - that's some decent money.

Yeah, that's a pretty simple way to adjust your risk level down.

I think that might have been The Atlantic article that was linked earlier in this thread. I think they estimated 40 to 70% of us will eventually catch it, but that for most of us, it will be a mild case.

Edit: Yeah, that was this: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/

Yeah, what's crazy (and stupid on my part) is I never would have put that together without talking to him. Guess that's why those guys get paid :p

I don't fully understand why people say you can't time the market. But I am a relative novice.

I manage my own pension. I pay in to various funds, a lot of them American. Once the Dow hit the early 28000s I stopped paying in to the funds and held the money within the pension as cash. Now the market is lower you buy in and get more units. So when it hits 35,000 in 5 years time, or 50,000 in 20 years you have done better as you got more units.

Surely this is a better time to buy then a month ago? Clear cut, end of story. Right? It may go down further but it will rise eventually and ultimately it will have been a cheap buy.

Conversely I sold my gold the day of the 7 year high. Only made 6% as I bought fairly dear, but profit is profit. Isn't this timing the market successfully? Now with that money I buy the cheap Dow...

I was thinking about why as it's unlikely a vaccine or cure is going to happen in a month, the virus will still be around.

Then I think I figured it out. It is to reduce the rate of infection but it's probably also so health services do not get overwhelmed all at once.

The company my wife works for, owned by Warren Buffet, sent out a memo today saying do not travel if you are even remotely sick as you may get quarantined. It also said have your laptop at all times and be prepared to work long stretches from home or wherever you can get online. They also have closed down a plant in China.

Does anyone else have travel coming up?

We are going to Cancun last week of March without our kids for a couples trip. We haven't paid the balance yet, we have a couple weeks to do it and I am waiting until the last minute. I'm more worried about getting back in to the country than anything else.

I have travel to NE next Wed-Fri for a client meeting. TBH, I wouldn't mind if they cancelled it or just made it a conference call.

I struggle with this.

One one hand it is horrifying that the government is basically saying they will tell us what we need to know and only them.

One the other hand we live in an era when misinformation spreads so quickly it does make sense to ensure the proper information is going out to the public.

I think for me what it boils down to is I have little issue with the government wanting to vet the information coming out, but I have zero faith in THIS government to do so properly or ethically.

I would be comfortable with domestic travel, it;s the international aspect of it I am worried about.

On average, though, it doesn't work.

Yeah, every quarter I look at my 401K to see if anything has changed in the funds I use - but I rarely do anything. This time, though, it seemed like a pretty safe bet that putting your money in a low risk fund for a couple months will equate better value given the election and virus.

Vetting it through Fauci would be a lot better than through Pence. Pence doesn't know anything about the science, so he's almost certainly there to look at everything through a political lens.

I almost feel sorry for Pence:

The "you" who can't time the market isn't the individual "you," it's the collective "you." As in all of us.

Sure, you can win at roulette. There's a great thread on here how to do it. You'd probably enjoy it a lot. A person can go play roulette and come away a winner for that sitting. It happens all the time.

But, it's still true that you can't beat the game of roulette. It's a fixed odds game. You can get lucky, but there's no real way to beat it systematically. So, "we" collectively always lose at roulette.

The saying about timing markets is meant as a generic aphorism. Sure, people get lucky and manage to buy low and sell high. Some others end up guessing wrong and do the reverse. Making decisions based on thinking we know where the bottoms and tops are is, in general, a tough way to find alpha. Anecdotes included.

That's what the saying means. In the off chance that was useful.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/u...e=articleShare


Not good.

It was just a matter of time until it reached within the borders of our country. The virus is now about 60 miles away, an hour drive by car.

Yeah, it looks like the article is quarantined under a paywall.

Hey, at least one quarantine worked!

Isn't nearly everything within an hour by car?


j/k ;)

Always bet on black.

Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.

It sounds like as long as you are under 70 or even better 60and are relatively health and don’t have a diabetes or something like a recent heart operation you should be ok.

No way near end of world scenario. If you haven't already, just buy some extra canned foods, pasta, rice etc. (whatever you already eat) and bottled water for 2-4 weeks.

Wife, daughter and I did talk tonight at dinner. Told them there was a fair chance school shut downs will happen here. Told her nothing we can do about it, we have food etc. I also told her that young people don't have to worry much, it's primarily 60+ where mortality is higher than the 2.1%.

I've read and agree that virus is probably going to mutate and here to stay. We'll eventually find a vaccine and it'll be the new normal like the flu ... but that's next year. For now, a bunch of FUD unfortunately.

Well, I have type 1 diabetes. And Im 52.

So if you see a really long period of me not posting, assume the worst.

Coronavirus: Sick Korean Air attendant served Tel Aviv, LA flights, reports say - Business Insider

Bold emphasis mine. That one-night layover was most likely at the new InterContinental Hotel in Downtown Los Angeles, owned by Korean Air. This hotel is adjacent to my place of work, and I walk by this hotel daily. COVID-19 could be closer than I think.

It's very reasonable to be concerned about yourself or people you care about, esp. with certain health conditions. But end of the world? No.

It's easy to forget with the press coverage of the 3000 or so who have died from this that 12k-50k die annually from plain ordinary flu. This is a scary virus, but it's not remotely close to end of the world territory. It would need to be several orders of magnitude more lethal for that to happen. I wouldn't be shocked to see deaths worldwide hit 6-7 figures eventually, or to see a global recession result. It's not good at all. But humanity will easily survive it on the whole and it could well not end up nearly that bad either, depending on response, how long medications take to be developed and become widely available, etc.

Some light hearted humor for this thread ... especially since futures are currently down -234 or .92%.

I typically check and update my spreadsheet on all my finances and investments at month-end. I'm going to skip it for Feb since it'll be too painful

Americans are avoiding Corona beer amid coronavirus outbreak, survey finds

Yeah, this isn’t Captain Trips. But it should be a real concern with older people with compromised immune systems. I’m worried for my 78-year-old father who is not in the best of health already.

I, too would be ashamed to order a Corona in public. But that was before the virus.

Yeah, that's my hometown and everyone is freaking out. Eventually, this is going to hit the US, but hopefully more is known by the time it really gains steam.

This real-time Johns Hopkins map is pretty neat. Especially if you want to pretend this is all a video game.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

I've been wondering what the hospitalization rate was and I just saw 16%, with at least 4% in ICU. That's an enormous problem for our medical system.

Thanks, nice tracker graphic.

Think I saw something similar in a zombie movie.

I've always wanted to try the board game "Pandemic". I hear it's pretty good.

There was some payment app years ago that called themselves Isis right before.

Hey, I've played Plague Inc, and I can tell you from experience, that this virus is nowhere near strong enough to kill off the planet. It's a weak ass joke in comparison to some that I've developed.

I remember that!

Pre-Isis Isis, Isis was an Egyptian babe.

Yes it is. I love mutating those viruses, especially the stuff that affects the brain.

Look its the beginning. This thing learns that its not strong enough to survive and mutates. Its only a matter of time.

There's a Pandemic board game adaptation on Steam. There's also a Plague Inc on Steam.

May have to check them out if we are quarantined.

The Atlantic did a fine job -- notable for the quick turnaround -- on a piece debunking this particular steaming pile of "news"

edit: I ain't mad at you for sharing it, my anger is reserved for the lazy-ass oh-my-lets-live-on-panic-clicks mentality of virtually every "news" organization on the planet these days

Good article. Thanks.

Well dang, I've gone and gotten sick just in time for the weekend.

Nice knowing you all.

Hope you get better. I've been told a nice stroll in the city does wonders for you.

And people love it it when you cough and sneeze on them. I understand that is a friendly form of greeting in urban areas.

Suspected case a couple towns over from me.

First US death. Trump now stopping travel to Italy and S Korea is certainly needed but too little too late. It appears there are thousands of cases across all of the country now. Take your vitamins all.

But I was told he stopped flights days ago?

I’m super stoked about flying to Cali for work on Tuesday.

Wife and I have a trip planned for a friends 50th birthday to Cancun March 21-28th. Grown ups only. We have only paid the deposit of a few hundred dollars up to this point. The balance, a few grand is due next Saturday. We finally breached the topic if we should seriously consider cancelling.

I'm not worried about getting sick, far more worried about not being able to get back in to the US.

One of my closest friends flew to San Diego today, she’s the photographer for a 5000 person convention at the San Diego Convention Center for the next few days. Really bad timing with that one.

Tilburg (case 1) yes
Amsterdam (case 2) longer than an hour
Delft (case 3) 15 minutes or so

Time to hog fruit and vegetables?

We have a trip to Northern Europe scheduled for April - hoping things are stable enough that flights aren't cancelled, but otherwise, hoping that tourist levels are low with people cancelling plans now and over the next few weeks. Traveling to Istanbul while they were invading Syria made a few acquaintances question our choice, but, security was high, crowds were low, people were happy we were there, the trip was spectacular. Also hoping Disneyland crowds are lower when we're there next month. That's kind of my mindset, making the best of whatever the situation is.

Travel disruptions are a concern but I'll just have backup systems in place. Bringing important work with me, making sure I have a plan for the dogs. It's easier without kids at home. All travel carries some risk, I try not to over-exaggerate it and just take whatever logical steps I can to mitigate all risks, and also try to take advantage of others' different risk assessments by finding deals, beating the crowds, etc.

I saw that too. Do you know what it is for the flu?

I know that the mortality rate right now is 10 times the flu.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I'm supposed to teach in Ireland for the month of July and GT is starting to cancel summer programs. Don't want to have to entertain kids in 95 degree ATL weather for a month.

We haven't canceled summer study abroad yet, but the Spring Break programs were killed yesterday.

Curious which summer programs are cancelled. Going to Metz for a summer was one of my favorite things about Tech.

Have a trip planned to Hawaii in early April. wife just asked same question especially with number of Asian tourists.

Yep. We have a trip slated there as well. Still holding out hope this clears up by then.

It would really suck to live in a nursing home facility with an outbreak.

https://apnews.com/f175d89567a26d59cab27725c9e8a0d7

The after pic is as of Feb 25. This would imply Chinese factories aren't ramped up yet which is no surprise (but would like to see a later pic) and I bet internet usage has spiked.

Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown - BBC News

Right now, I believe just the China one, with ones in Japan and South Korea seemingly questionable. Hopefully it won't spread to Ireland, but they've had a case or two and you never know.

Hey everyone, I think I found the answer to combat pollutants and global warming...




Or maybe it was Mother Nature....I've heard she's a real bitch.

It's in the Seattle area now :(

From Howard Forman:

“People have asked about case fatality rate. Everyone quotes "2%." We do NOT KNOW, with reliability. I believe it will be lower than 2%. In this report, data suggests it is coming closer to 0.7% w/newer cases in China. ”. https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf

Best guess is then 7x mortality rate than flu

An assisted living facility is the last place you’d want an outbreak of this virus.

The CDC looks shockingly inept so far. Just off the top of my head there's the bad test, then very few tests, refusal or inability to make American protocols available to doctors, and now we learn that a patient in TX was released by the CDC who then later returned and tested positive.

Congress should quickly dive in to see what's wrong at CDC.

Probably the hundreds of open positions, or being only allowed to discuss and study what the admin says is cool.

GOP playbook. Cripple and mismanage the government, then run on the platform that the government sucks.

I just wish it wasn't in the context of a pandemic this time.

Futures up 230 and talk on bloomberg about possible 50 basis point cut. China government takes over big conglomerate Hainan. More fun to come this week I'm sure.

I am starting to wonder if it's not already fairly widespread in the US and we're not noticing because it looks like the flu.

Costco was a mad house yesterday as people appeared to be panic-shopping. The store was sold out of water, toilet paper, and paper towels.

A friend who lives in the town where the virus hit in Oregon went to Costco. Said the lines were literally to the back of the store.

I was thinking the same thing. Wondering the same about China and maybe the asymptomatic or low symptom just not being figured into the 2%. Of course people with a much higher pay grade at the CDC etc have probably considered these things as well. I think it is important to note the CDC's advice vs the mass media. Not sure much more than limit exposure, wash hands, etc have come from them. The mass media is all over 2 deaths, Captain Trips has arrived!

It's definitely more widespread than we know given that there's community spread. We haven't tested many people so far, and when we start testing like SK or Italy we're going to find a lot more cases.

I'm left with the question, just how serious is this?

Is this just another illness like the flu? More serious than the flu?

Should we be freaking out about it?

Is the media hyping it more than it should be?

I have a feeling that unless this thing wipes out large numbers of the world's population, we'll never get a real sense of what this thing is. You won't get the truth from any where.

Being in fairly close proximity to the Washington breakouts, some people around here suspect they've already had it - based on the descriptions of mild cases having a cough and shortness of breath rather than the more varied typical flu symptoms.

If you are older and have pre-existing conditions that make you vulnerable (there's a list somewhere), pretty serious. Not end of the world though.


For right now, more serious than the flu. Mortality rates and infection rates seem higher. This is based on China data right now so I suspect the %s will go down. (or higher, Iran seems to have higher %s but who knows)

For next year, likely vaccine will be out and so it'll be like the flu.


Because there are quarantines in western-like countries and some panic buying, I suggest you buy extra canned food, soups, rice, pasta, water etc. that you would normally eat anyway (and toilet paper!).


I'd break this down on (1) markets and (2) health to you. Unless there is good news on vaccine progress ...

For markets, I don't think its overhyped at this time with a 12% correction. No doubt supply chain has been impacted (e.g. supply of iPhones) and demand from consumers hurt because they see their savings decrease (me), concerns about job stability, and who wants to fly on an international flight or get on a cruise. There will be reduce profits overall, not sure if its recession level though.

For health, if you are a healthy younger guy and in the US, then probably overhyped. If you are an older person with pre-existing, it seems pretty serious (70+ is 8%, 80+ is 14% mortality; flu overall is .1% but not sure about age breakdown for flu).


China may be fudging nos. But I think it'll come out as the western nations fight this thing.

From what I've gathered, it's essentially a flu that's 5-20 times more deadly and is spread just as easily.

Since the flu kills around 20,000-45,000 a year in this country, the math is sobering. Although note that a lot of people dying of the flu are the same kind of people who would die from this new virus.

Either way, if it spreads, we could be looking at 100k plus deaths.

This is a good podcast(about 25 minutes) that lays out possibilities.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000466938203