FWIW, they're telling us here to call into an urgent care clinic rather than go in anywhere (unless it's an emergency).

But ya, any symptoms like that should be reported so they can have an accounting of what's going on in the area. They have detailed plans to deal with every phone call like that and can direct everybody what they should do.

THAT'S the last straw?

yeah, I guess what I meant is 100% consult a health care official.

Was talking with our old friend sterlingice this morning. Both he and his wife work at a hospital and have family who are doctors. He was trying to not sound like a conspiracy theorist, but the numbers tell the story.



As the current rate of 30% growth per day we'll be over 240k cases by the first weekend in April. Also, since we're grossly underestimating the spread of the disease by 10 to 20 times, which has been estimated, then we could be at 2-4 million infected by that same weekend. The current hospitalization rate of 10% with that number infected basically drowns the system as all ICU beds are taken before any other 'normal expected' emergencies show up.



Hospitals are treating people who have it already. We're seeing large groups of first responders and nursing home employees with 'symptoms' but without actual tests we really don't know the actual stretch of the illness.

I was reading that there's a major global shortage of RNA separating kits, so even when there's a Covid test, most labs can't process them.

Highlighted from Open letter to the US government, by a computer scientist professor from Purdue University : China_Flu


The Paths Ahead.

Path A. The US government takes decisive and proactive actions today and leads all countries fighting the potential devastation by COVID-19 in a coordinated effort to enforce aggressive social distancing measures to contain the spread. Looking at situations in China, this should be able to contain the virus in 4 to 6 weeks. Life should be able to return to normal by June or July. Economy should be able to quickly recover in a few months after that. Total number of cases in the US may be in the tens of thousands, with hundreds of deaths. There will be economic and other kinds of pains and suffering, but these are unavoidable.
Path B. Continue the current course of action. In no more than two weeks (by Mar 22), the number of confirmed cases will top 10 thousands. Health care systems in states starting with Washington, California, New York will be strained like Northern Italy today. US government may have to adopt drastic social distancing measures similar to locking down entire cities.

• The best case scenario is that the spreading can still be contained by these measures to be about 10 to 50 times the size as under Path A, i.e., with hundreds of thousands or a few millions of people infected, and thousands or more deaths. It will take longer for the lockdown effort to be effective because of the scale of spreading. It may be August or September before life can return to normal. And the economic damage will be a lot higher than Path A.
• Worst-case scenario is that spreading cannot be contained, and we are looking at situations predicted by some experts, with up to 70% of the population infected. Local communities will still try any conceivable containment method. Economic and social activities will be greatly disrupted. At least 20% of the population over the age of 70, as well as significant fractions of other age groups, will die while waiting for medical care, with family members desperately looking on. The situation looks to be at least as bad as the Spanish flu. We may be looking at the worst humanity and economic disaster since World War 2. The remaining hope after the devastation is that either virus mutates to a milder form, or effective vaccines can be developed before the next wave hits.

This is the big thing, and why any quarantines will not actually work, by the time you know you have something or are fighting something, you've already been unknowingly exposing people to it.

Heck, as I posted above, I've been sick for weeks (in hindsight). Outside of a 3 day window, I would classify this as nothing more than a cold. With those three days, maybe I had the flu. Could I have something worse? Maybe. Could I have exposed many around me? Certainly.

Here's the other puzzling aspect, my boss, my wife and kids, none of them have gotten sick. Friends I have interacted with in that time, no one else has gotten sick. The only other one that has been sick, is the guy I am shadowing, and we came down with the heavier symptoms at roughly the same time (he has me by a few days here, his worst was the weekend before I got worse, we started exhibiting symptoms at the same time).

For the record, seeing the doctor tomorrow. The fact I have to fly to Vancouver for more training Sunday was the determining factor, I do not want to deal with anything lingering especially if I have a secondary infection.

Quarantines will work if they last long enough.

Quarantines are working in China, SK, and Japan. Saying there's nothing we can do is just simply ignoring the evidence of what works.

What's the movie? Have to watch it.

Agreed, quarantines are normally the best defense against any infectious disease, but if the person is spreading the virus before any symptoms are evident who goes in to quarantine? Or, is the entire country supposed to go into quarantine? What will the effect of that be?

For something like the measles, ebola, or some other infectious disease, it is easy to quarantine. You show signs of the virus, in you go. For something like this, not so much, because you are infecting people before you get sick or exhibit symptoms. Also, in cases of young people, you might never know you are sick (similar to West Nile Virus).

Also, numbers for Japan are thought to be several times higher than officially reported for this very reason. In China, due to the government, I can see where it would be easier to institute a mandatory quarantine.

That's the point of better hygiene and social distancing. So far Western countries haven't been willing to go far enough in limiting contact and we're paying the price.

Ben Cohen on Twitter: ""We would recommend that there not be large crowds," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the most respected public health official in the United States. "If that means not having any people in the audience when the NBA plays, so be it.""

Wow. That's Dr. Fauci, head of the NIH suggesting playing sporting events in the US without crowds.

This is quite consistent with the comments that our pulmonologist friend was making at dinner Sunday night.

W.H.O. officially declares this a pandemic.

Just got an email from the doctor's office wanting to know if I have been travelling in the past 4 weeks...

About 2-3 weeks late.

Fox News is so slimy.

I threw it on in the car and they had some woman on who was an MD. She stated very emphatically the economic impact is way worse than the virus itself, and she is relieved someone with the strong economic track record of Trump is managing that aspect and letting the medical experts handle the virus.

Don't have the cards yet, but is it certain that you do actually have coverage? or is a potential snafu there and that's part of what insurance/employer are still messing with?

Some doc offices will probably freak out if there's no card, but if you've got coverage you should be able to get your Member Id and Group Number and just give those to the front office staff and be fine.

That's why you test as many people as you can. South Korea didn't just quarantine those with symptoms, they tested as many people as they could get their hands on. Notified them and got them away from everyone else.

South Korea is the standard for how this should be handled. Their numbers are now dropping and their death rate has been really low in contrast to the world.

Drive-thru testing that was so successful in SK would cut into profit margins here too much.

Robert Redfield, CDC Director, said there are no plans to set up drive through #COVID19 test centres because "We're tryinjg to maintain the relationship between individuals and their healthcare providers."

— Julian Borger (@julianborger) March 11, 2020

Just decided to cancel out Cancun trip. I wasn't all that excited about it but my wife didn't want to let her friend down. We were all going for her friends 50th birthday and apparently we were the last couple to stay on board.

Main reason is my MIL had a heart transplant 11 years ago and is already in less than ideal health. A full week of my kids staying with them, and potentially more should we get quarantined, could expose her and it just isn't worth the risk.

Yea this shit worries me. Fort Wayne voted 65/35 for Trump and my interactions with actual people here have been pretty bad pretty frequently, lots of very stereotypical Trump supporters. Neighbor has radios in every room of her house so she won't miss a minute of Rush or Hannity or whoever, as an example. At least 3 other neighbors are the same way and are older than me. Do they think this is just a democrat conspiracy and am I going to get screwed over by that mentality at a city-wide level here? Ugh.

+1, their model for this is great. With the lack of testing done/available in the US, our numbers of confirmed cases are going to prove to be dramatically low, right?

I have the group ID, no member ID.

My guess is this is a backside computer foul up. Everything is supposed to be automated, there was a website I (my wife) went to, filled everything out. I checked with my employer to make sure everything was good. Everything checked out. Double checked the website on Monday and again today. I called Aetna today and they are saying they have not seen anything yet.

I shot a note to HR to ask if everything can be resent. Everything on my end has dates for effective coverage and what is covered, so I have printed this all out and will take it with me.

My wife is in a panic, I am not. We need to pay everything out of pocket until the deductible is met anyway. Worst case, we get the receipts and submit after it gets set up.

Sent you a PM

Here is a good article I came across:

https://www.fast.ai/2020/03/09/coron...BjIo5Q_ZvwiSRU



Hopefully this "it's just the flu" stuff disappears. However, we need the administration to step up for that to happen, but I don't see that happened :(.

Bing video

Coronavirus patient

I remember thinking about this movie a lot in the days after 9/11. Pretty crazy.

I've read the symptoms are similar to the flu - cough, fever, tiredness but the additional symptom is shortness of breath. Have you experienced that?

PSA: Here's a reddit AMA

I’m Dr. Ali Raja, Vice Chair of the Department of Emergency Medicine at Mass General Hospital, and Associate Professor at Harvard Medical School. I’m joined by Dr. Shuhan He, an Emergency Medicine physician at Mass General Hospital. Let's talk treatment & self care during COVID-19 outbreak. AMA. : Coronavirus

Right. SK in particular are flat out kicking its ass at this point.

I think the key is to jump on it quick. Once it is rolling it is an SOB. But even then China brought it under control relatively quickly, IF you believe the numbers they are throwing out.

Having said that another key is to have a vaccine for next winter or it could be on a different level.

No, not at all. The two odd things right now are the lingering cough, sore throat (which I believe is linked to the cough, but maybe secondary strep infection), and the crackle (sounds like carbonation) when exhaling (although after some breathing exercises, those are now intermittent).

EDIT: As an asthmatic (although typically exercise and cold weather triggered), I am sensitive to any changes in my breathing and realize for anything lung related I am particularly susceptible to it. So I practice some basic breathing techniques, breathe using your stomach not your chest, inhale deeply, hold it for a couple of seconds, exhale, etc. I learned by doing this (completely anecdotally), I tend to keep infections that would have sidelined me in the past, I can keep from setting in, or mitigate the damage if you will, instead of a severe case of bronchitis it is more mild, etc.

Fever is generally found in like 90% of those infected with COVID-19. It's shortness of breath that distinguishes it from the flu - you may find gunk in your lungs and find it slightly more annoying to breath, but feeling like you are constantly out of breath or winded (even while doing something like just talking) is a sign it's not flu and more likely coronavirus.

My kid is home for 2 extra weeks of spring break

Ohio governor just said he'll be issuing an order regarding mass gatherings in the coming days.

Probably means First Four in Dayton and first and second round in Cleveland will be played behind closed doors.

Only for indoor events. His family owns a minor league baseball team and one of the biggest state senators family owns the Indians. So outdoor events are fine for now.

I wonder if they move the games to another location - might as well play in a HS gym if they don't move the games to another state.

To continue the interesting bits, got another email from my doctor's office, he will see me at my appointment, but if there is a high fever or shortness of breath to go to the ER.

I understand why they sent the last part, but never had all this before a doctor's appt before. I feel like I should show up in a Hazmat suit.

I've been opposed to tele-docs, but in this situation we should all have access to that as a first screening tool.

It seems like the NCAA tournament would be a pretty bad scenario. Bunch of people from all over the country come to one site and then go back to their varying parts of the country (or if they win to new parts of the country).

Not sure why you wouldn't just play in an empty gym but maybe the travel is concerning too.

Saw on twitter that the Ivy League has cancelled all spring athletics.

No fans at all ncaa tournament games. The economic impact will be huge.

Wondering what's going to happen with Little League sports and such.

One (UV light) shining moment (that is long enough to disinfect)

Our local Little League sent out a email getting rid of the postgame handshakes. We are heading into spring break so I am sure there will be meetings held for the way forward.

Looks like both of our upcoming trips are in big jeopardy. Denmark got hit hard the last few days and is taking aggressive measures.

Anybody doing anything fun with time they took off for trip plans that are now cancelled? There's probably a bunch of Airbnb cancellations, maybe we'll try to find something drive-able that would be fun to do with the dogs. My girlfriend suggested we do some deep spring cleaning, so I need to come up with a better idea fast.

The dominoes are starting guys.

Am I crazy for wanting to keep about 10K in cash around the house in case I need quick money?

Kind of my thoughts as well. The next couple weeks could be really, really interesting.

Trump to address the nation at 9pm.

Why? I don't see any indications that banks will collapse (yet).

I saw him on TV with a bunch of Wall St. and Financials folks. If he didn't have all the baggage, thought he did okay other than at the end when he refused to take a CNN reporter's question ... "CNN, fake news, we're done".

The University of Iowa has shut down. Virtual classes only after spring break.

Washington University in St. Louis has shut down.

If Universities start shutting down, Im not sure how they have any of the Winter sports final tourneys.

Flattening the curve graphic

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/scie...fight-n1155636

Just saw that March madness games will have no fans. Just family and essential staff.

NCAA: March Madness will be played without fans in attendance | ksdk.com

I'm surprised the Secret Service hasn't stepped in at these events yet. Maybe they've tried to no avail but considering his age, seems dangerous as hell.

Brazilian Communications Secretary Fabio Wajngarten suspected of carrying COVID-19. He was with Trump last weekend at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. https://t.co/ev0z20ITyW

— Vincent Bevins (@Vinncent) March 11, 2020

Can't get money if all bank employees are sick. What if I need to pay someone off for something?

Venmo or Cash App may do. Unless you want to keep it super quiet, in that case, you'd have the cash on hand anyways.

The tone of his tweets changed fairly dramatically this afternoon as well. Makes me wonder if the medical folks finally got through to him.

Not something I've thought about or that I've read of anyone in my social circles thinking about at all. That doesn't necessarily mean you're crazy, its just nowhere near my radar yet. I can go from my Discover Online Banking to my local bank to the ATM in just a couple days.

Can't get money from an ATM is the people who stock it and service it are sick, or if there is no power.

I am talking real societal breakdown shit, not just cash on hand. That being said cash won't mean much if society breaks down. Medicine and guns would likely be the new currency. I floated the idea to my wife of getting a handgun and she wasn't on board.

BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! BUY GOLD! AND TOILET PAPER!

I don't think we've seen any evidence that this kind of thing would last for more than an afternoon for him, if Fox & Friends contradicts his medical experts tomorrow morning, all bets are off. Absolutely terrified letting this guy address the nation to try to encourage awareness/some action but discourage a panic.

Every time he opens his stupid mouth he makes it worse.

BITCOIN!!!

Actually, some would say silver is better. But definitely toilet paper!

The best case numbers we've seen puts the fatality rate at 0.7% while on the high end the rate is somewhere in the ballpark of 3%. The swine flu was twice as deadly as a normal flu and had a fatality rate of 0.2%

We do not have vaccines to help break the spread of this so it's best to get out in front of it rather than wait for it to become too widespread to contain. Why wait until millions are infected to start canceling events when we have medical professionals all over the world strongly recommending the steps cities and event organizers are taking? These aren't precautions being taken blindly. We have scientists and medical experts that are dealing with this in other countries making suggestions.

He's apparently waiting for Kushner to read up on it to make a decision about it.

Kushner has to figure out how to profit off it first.

To be clear, by "got to him," I'm thinking "Oh no, it sounds like if I don't do something I could lose the election."


Another out-of-character tweet a few minutes ago...

The Media should view this as a time of unity and strength. We have a common enemy, actually, an enemy of the World, the CoronaVirus. We must beat it as quickly and safely as possible. There is nothing more important to me than the life & safety of the United States!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 11, 2020

I think you’re overreacting somewhat.

Not trying to downplay this but this isn't some plague wiping out half the population. It sounds like the death rate will be between 1-2%, and that is primarily elderly people who aren't exactly stocking the ATM machines. And from what I've read, young people seem to handle this fairly well outside of a small percent who have complications.

Below are the numbers out of South Korea. The rates of death for people under 50 are right around flu levels.

This is a virus that really fucks up older people.

These are the Covid-19 mortality rates by age in South Korea, where they are testing 10,000+ per day.

Source: https://t.co/C56cszM2Vn pic.twitter.com/LAhyCf7wOs

— Nicholas Carlson (@nichcarlson) March 11, 2020

Okay, I see the scenario you are painting.

Cash for maybe some last minute spending before it all really breaks down. If you really think society can break down for an extended period of time, sure get some cash (but the value is questionable), and I would also suggest you make sure you have enough food & water, medicine, plan for immediate family, maybe pay off several months of bills, get to know your neighbors if not already, and then get a weapon.

Let me reiterate that you need to be a responsible gun owner. This means training, gun safe etc. and always be conscious (and accountable) for your actions.

As someone else pointed out, there are sheep (BAAAA-den - don't agree with the characterization but was kinda funny) and there are wolves, especially more so when society collapses for a while. Katrina is my use case but I don't think we are close to that extreme.

Per the BBC website,

Juventus have announced that Italy centre-back Daniele Rugani has tested positive for coronavirus.

Unfortunately, Bitcoin is taking a dive too right now.

Am I wrong that I'm beginning to think the country is overreacting to the virus?

You think? Jesus H Christ FOFC, get a grip!

No. It's a virus at least 10 times deadlier than the flu that spreads easier and has no vaccine.

Some of the conservative estimates are putting deaths at 300k.

Well its pretty much a yearly trend since social media became huge that something big is going to wipe out a large portion of the planet. It appears to be overreaction but I guess we wont know until later. Better to be safe than sorry!

We just got the call. Cancelled.

So you and NobodyHere care to share what you think are overreactions?

Our band/choir trip to Boston -- for Apr. 23 -- has been canceled.

Of course I'm the music booster treasurer, so I'm going to have to figure out refunds for everyone assuming we get money back from the travel company.

Has anyone got information on the impact on kids? I've seen some higher death rates for older people, but I haven't seen much data on the impact to kids.

See post #550. Basically kids are around .2% assuming no pre-existing conditions. Not sure how precise the % is but it's accepted that kids and young adults are at much lower risk.

I am aware of how fucked up this sounds, but the end result of this could be a net benefit for some governments by the reduction of population from these age brackets in terms of sustainability of federal social security programs, pensions, etc. as well as long-term medicare/healthcare costs.

Literally just watched this, scary stuff from someone who seems credible.

Preliminary data shows kids are at less risk and as of right now science can't explain why. IIRC, even in China, there hadn't been a death reported of any child age 9 or younger.

Access Denied

True, but it’s still up 6.75% ytd and up 97.05% for 1-yr. Slightly better than the Dow. ;)

Well shutting down the economy because of a virus that is mainly lethal to the elderly with complications does seem like an overreaction to me.

The recession that our reaction is going to cause may be more troublesome than the virus itself.

The elderly still the most consistent voting bloc in the country, right?

Has there been a movie or TV series where a virus kills off all adults, leaving all the children in the world to figure it out? I'd watch that.

The Tribe (1999 TV series - Wikipedia)

It was young adult sci-fi from New Zealand, and it was gloriously bad.

Well, I know how I’m spending our upcoming quarantine.

Edit: Holy crap - 260 episodes? Never mind, quarantine won’t be long enough.

I feel like people would be OK with a recession over seeing half a million people die.