FOF2K7 Solo Dynasty
 

I'm going to give this a try. I've constructed a set of house rules that won't annoy me and that I hope will challenge me. I'll adjust them along the way if I find them too restrictive or too easy.

STARTUP--53-round draft, with the following restrictions.

• I'm going to use draftpicklottery.com to pre-determine what positions I will draft in the first 22 rounds. I'll enter 22 "teams" (positions) with equal weights, and whatever order it spits out is the order in which I must pick my initial starters. Then for the next 16 rounds, I'll do the same to get one backup at each position group, a punter, and a kicker. The final 15 picks will also be pre-determined by position using the same site. This will keep me from doing what I would do if not restricted: draft offense with each of the first 20-25 rounds and pwn.
• I am not allowed to pick any rookies in the initial draft. The SP AI undervalues these guys tremendously.

SETTINGS

• Injuries=100. I want to move rather quickly.
• Cap Range: 0 to 99. What the heck? Randomness ftw!
• AI Handles Depth Charts: This will speed things up and keep me from having a tremendous and perpetual ST advantage.
• Chemistry Turned Off: I've come to realize that this is another place in SP where the human just has a massive advantage, and it also slows me down.

GENERAL HOUSE RULES

• 33% Cap Reduction starting in the 2nd year Best way I've found to increase the challenge in SP without having to do a bunch of other stuff.
• Undrafted rookies must be signed to a one-year deal. If they end up playing, they'll cost a little more in future seasons.
• Draftees must be signed to the 2nd/4th (most expensive/shortest) option. A little added difficulty, plus it helps move things along.
• No trading FOR any future draft picks. I'm allowed to trade my own future picks away if I so choose, but no acquiring future picks. If I'm acquiring a draft pick, it must be for the current season.
• No trading AWAY any picks after the third round. I'm going to force myself to draft and sign these guys.
• Any contract offered to a non-rookie FA rated 45 future or better must be for 3 years, minsal all three years, and a bonus that makes the first year of the contract worth at least the following percentages of the effective salary cap:

QB	7.5%
RB	3.4%
FB	1.3%
TE	1.8%
WR	10.0%
OT	3.9%
OG	2.5%
C	2.2%
P	0.8%
K	1.3%
DE	2.8%
DT	2.8%
OLB	3.2%
ILB	2.7%
CB	4.2%
S	2.7%

QB/WR HOUSE RULES
I don't enjoy playing FOF when I am not allowed to have decent QBs and WRs, but I want to make acquiring and keeping quality talent at those positions to be a costly proposition. You'll note above that they will cost much more in FA, and the following additional rules apply to them:

• No drafting a QB or WR outside of the top 10 in any amateur draft. If I want a QB or WR, I must trade up and go get one, and pay the big cap hit.
• No extending the contract of any QB or WR. They will always hit FA, forcing me to pay the premium price continually for them if I want to keep them. They may be capped out, but that's it.
• No franchising a QB or WR more than once in his career. In other words, if I want to keep a guy one extra year as a franchise player, I may do so, but then he hits FA the next year and he may hate me.

The draft pick lottery isn't very kind to me. That FB in particular is going to hurt, I'm sure.

Pick 1:	RB
Pick 2:	FB
Pick 3:	CB
Pick 4:	OG
Pick 5:	S
Pick 6:	OT
Pick 7:	S
Pick 8:	ILB
Pick 9:	DE
Pick 10:	OLB
Pick 11:	TE
Pick 12:	WR
Pick 13:	CB
Pick 14:	OT
Pick 15:	WR
Pick 16:	OG
Pick 17:	QB
Pick 18:	DE
Pick 19:	ILB
Pick 20:	OLB
Pick 21:	C
Pick 22:	DT

2010 Initial Draft
 

I get the #27 pick in the first round of the snake draft. Here are my picks in the first 22 rounds.

Pick 1:	RB--Donnie Watson (59/81, yr 2)--We start off with a true stud RB. 97 Breakaway, 72/81 hole rec, 75/100 elusiveness, 63/86 endurance. He's not particularly good at pass-catching, but given that I have to draft a FB in the 2nd round, I'm thinking I can get a guy there who can take care of any needed out-of-the-backfield pass-catching.
Pick 2:	FB--Mack Ostwald (55/69, yr 2)--Ostwald looks like a solid blocker and a great pass-catcher. He also has 92/93 endurance.
Pick 3:	CB--Glen Covert (47/87, yr 2)--Monster cover guy with 96/100 interceptions and 81/91 KR skills to boot.
Pick 4:	OG--Bart McIntyre (65/76, yr 6)--All-around G
Pick 5:	S--Thomas Banks (77/77, yr 7)--He's older than I would have liked, but there were no high-quality young guys left. I didn't want a 63/63 type with 50 endurance, so Banks it is.
Pick 6:	OT--Kenyon Brovins (47/64, yr 5)--More of a run blocker than pass blocker. Great endurance.
Pick 7:	S--Jake Conley (37/61, yr 2)--And I end up grabbing the other safety who caught my eye at the #5 pick. Coverage guy.
Pick 8:	ILB--Bubba Royster (54/62, yr 3)--Will provide good pass coverage and blitzing from ILB.
Pick 9:	DE--Gerald McArthur (51/51, yr 8)--Pure pass rusher. 18 run defense, 81 PRT, 57 PRS.
Pick 10:	OLB--Rex Spolane (52/52, yr 8)--Another strong pass-rush guy, though his endurance is only 45.
Pick 11:	TE--Dave Morris (40/63, yr 2)--I'm concerned about his 40 Endurance, but otherwise should be a very solid pass-catching TE.
Pick 12:	WR--Roosevelt Rogers (26/56, yr 3)--Our first WR is a solid all-around guy, no standout ratings in any category, but probably good enough to be a decent #1. 34/60 GD, 11/52 RR, 56 BPR, 60/72 Endurance
Pick 13:	CB--Todd Messbauer (49/55, yr 5)--Solid all-around and has PR skills.
Pick 14:	OT--Bernie Witt (25/46, yr 2)--High strength and endurance. Not sure if his run/pass blocking bars will end up above 40 or so, though.
Pick 15:	WR--Rex Wicker (39/53, yr 4)--Good-looking WR with only 41 endurance
Pick 16:	OG--Roderick Finch (33/54, yr 4)--Looks pretty solid.
Pick 17:	QB--Benjamin Ward (43/43, yr 7)--Best at short passing, accuracy (90), and he's a scrambler (87). Also has 62 sense rush.
Pick 18:	DE--Wally Jacobs (44/44, yr 6)--Not great at anything, but at least decent in everything.
Pick 19:	ILB--Morris Barnes (36/50, yr 4)--Good at run defense and blitzing. Lousy coverage guy.
Pick 20:	OLB--Frankie Quick (40/40, yr 8)--Pass rushing and coverage. Weak at run defense.
Pick 21:	C--Kenneth Preston (46/46, yr 12)--Best Center remaining by my estimation.
Pick 22:	DT--Earnest Umphenour (32/40, yr 3)--Good endurance and decent skills.

Cool!

Of course, the talent got worse as the draft continues. Not worth going into much detail. Here's a look at the roster:

QB Ward spent much of the year on the bench. I'm not sure that wasn't a good thing. His backup performed better...


Other thoughts...

• We were really bad throwing the ball. (Thanks, draft lottery!)
• I'm quite surprised that RB Watson only had 3.97 ypc. I would have expected better from him.
• Good to see that we generated a solid pass rush.

AWARDS
S Thomas Banks: 1st-Team All Pro.
G Bart McIntyre: 2nd Team All Pro

2011 OFFSEASON
 

The early contracts really hurt me with the tight cap, and I'm forced to make cuts immediately. Gone are the following starters:

WR Rex Wicker (45/52)
G Roderick Finch (35/54)
C Kenneth Preston (46/46)
LT Bernie Witt (30/45)
DE Wally Jacobs (44/44)

Some other less significant guys are released as well such as the #3 QB (just gonna have a minsal rookie there.) We open up just enough cap room to extend a couple of contracts, not enough to sign anyone in FA besides minsal vets.

Also of note is that QB Benjamin Ward only signed a one-year deal last year, and is a Free Agent. There's no way I'm spending the required 6.9M per year on him, especially when his backup performed better.

On to the draft...

2031 AMATEUR DRAFT
I'm sitting at #14. I'm thinking this may be the year to trade up to #10 to get a QB or WR if one is there. Clearly I need some help in those areas. With my cap situation, I don't see trading any higher, though.

I actually end up having a tough decision at 1(10). Two WRs are there. One has a crazy-low 40 time, but his Endurance is showing up very low. That could be a big deal in a career where I don't foresee having much depth at WR. The other guy has solid-not-ZOMFG combines, but is showing a very strong Endurance bar. I decide to risk the fast guy. I do love me some speed. 1(14) and 2(13) go to Houston in exchange for 1(10) and 4(14) so I can draft Gabe Helm. Here's the draft in its entirety.

1(10)--SE Gabe Helm (25/42)--Obviously heavily masked, but is Endurance masked (and is RR high enough.)
3(12)--RDE Amos Barlow (27/47)--Pass-rush DE who will start immediately barring VSOD.
4(11)--C Bo Muterspaugh (21/64)--2 reds and a blue. Also a very likely starter
4(14)--LT Marco Lyon (18/36)--With me having cut our LT, this guy also has a clear path to a starting slot.
5(10)--K Steve Blanchard (24/36)--Our kicker was terrible last year. This guy looks like a 65-70 type.
6(16)--RDT Bernie Jefferson (20/25)--I let NT Umphenour's contract expire, and the only other guy under contract is in year 10. This 2-blue guy will see playing time.
7(15)--MLB Korey Taylor (19/31)--Same deal as above. I didn't extend SILB Morris Barnes, so there's playing time to be had at ILB.

FA2 is uneventful. Backups and roster-fillers. No one gets more than minsal as that's all I can afford.

2011 TRAINING CAMP

• 1st-round pick Helm is +7/+9. He's showing 39/41 endurance and 22/44 RR. I suspect that those are going to have to improve by 20ish points for him to be the long-term solution there.
• K Blanchard is +3/+9
• Two big hits on defense to young-ish players. SILB Royster (yr 4) is -10/-10, and CB Messbauer (yr 6) is -11/-11.

FOF puts our roster strength at 40.

2011 Roster/Outlook
 

I'm going with a balanced attack, keeping the FB and TE on the field a lot. We'll try to stretch the field some with the shiny new WR and see how that goes.

A very surprising outcome. The defense and running game absolutely dominated, and the passing game was good enough. But then disappointment in the postseason:


Other thoughts...

• I really can't say enough about the defense. Wow.
• I've never seen running game numbers like that. I did increase the FB usage considerably, so maybe that paid off.
• We head into next year over the cap again, so at this point I'm not terribly concerned about being too dominant, but we'll see.

AWARDS
WLB Rex Spolane: Defensive Player Of The Year and 1st Team All Pro
RB Donnie Watson: 1st Team All-Pro
SS Thomas Banks: 1st Team All-Pro (2nd year in a row)

2012 Offseason
 

I slap the Franchise tag on DPOY Rex Spolane, which may have been a mistake. He wants considerably more than the required amount. I might have been able to get him more cheaply.

The initial-contract bloodletting is not yet done. The following starters get cut:

CB Todd Messbauer (47/47)
LB Frankie Quick (37/37)

No money to do anything in FA1. On to the draft...

2012 AMATEUR DRAFT
I'm sitting at #30 (ugh) and I can't afford to trade up.

1(30)--C Earnest Haggan (26/69)--A 3-red/2-blue guy at a position where my mediocre starter's contract has expired. No-brainer pick.
2(30)--RG Jason Wheeler (21/58)--Another position where my former mediocre starter has no contract. Wheeler has three blues and a red.
3(30)--LDT Scottie Tisdale (29/40)--Our 6th-round pick of Bernie Jefferson last year for NT isn't looking like it's going to pan out. Tisdale has one green combine, but it's in agility (run defense,) so I'm happy to see those other three blue ones.
4(30)--RDE Anthony Seiferling (24/36)--I'm in need of depth and youth at DE, and Seiferling looks like a solid pass-rusher.
5(30)--RT Barry Odle (16/35)--Probably nothing special, but I only have two tackles under contract.
6(30)--FB Casey Ricker (19/35)--Not much left in the draft at this point. This guy has three blues, so why not?
7(30)--LT Fred Gil (16/36)--Probably the BPA at this point.

FA2 is uneventful. Backups and roster-fillers. No one gets more than minsal as that's all I can afford.

2011 TRAINING CAMP NOTES

• 1st-round pick Haggan is +7/+3. Nice.
• 2nd-year WR Helm is up to 57/57 with 66 RR and 58 Endurance. Solid.
• No other major hits.

FOF puts our roster strength at 22.

2012 Roster/Outlook
 

Five rookies are set to start, but if the running game and defense can come close to last year's performance and the passing game improves a bit, I guess we could remain legit.

2012 Summary
 

Made it all the way to the Bowl, only to see both our running game and defense fail us.
Other thoughts...

• The run defense disappeared this year, but the passing defense was still stellar. The former is no surprise, as the new defensive guys aren't good at run stopping.
• RB Donnie Watson was a beast in the first two postseason games: 21 carries for 143 against ARI, and 23 for 203 against CHI.
• The Bowl wasn't close. It was 44-13 with 3 minutes to go before we scored two cheap TDs. They shut down the running game and we were toast.
• The passing game didn't really improve this year. I don't think Jamie Kriner can take us any farther than he has, and his contract is up. I don't think we can afford a real QB yet, so we'll have to find another 35/35 minsal type to take his place, I suspect. I'm guessing he'll want starter money in FA, and I don't see giving him that.

AWARDS
TE Dave Morris: 1st Team All-Pro: 58 catches, 811 yards, 7 Tds, 9.22ypt, 9 for 17 KRB with 1 pancake.
G Bart McIntyre: 1st Team All-Pro: 48 for 118 KRB, 10 pnk, 3 sk
SS Thomas Banks: 1st Team All-Pro (3rd year in a row): 119 tkl, 44 ast, 4 INT, 30 ctc, 10 def, 83.2 PDPct.
K Steve Blanchard, 2nd Team All-Pro: 37 for 42 FG, 7 for 9 from 50+

2013 Offseason
 

FRANCHISE: SS Thomas Banks. Yeah, I couldn't afford an extension for him. I can, however, afford to extend him.

I make only one cut of a starter:

NT C.J. Patton (40/40)

However, it's worth noting that another key guy wasn't re-signed: LG Bart McIntyre (75/75) is a free agent and I can't afford to offer the contract he wants. I pursue a cheap QB with decent Accuracy and Sense Rush. It looks like the worst of the cap woes from the initial draft are about to pass, so this guy should hold us over.

NEW FA STARTER(S) SIGNED

QB HOWIE ROBERTS (43/43)--50 Accuracy, 48 Sense Rush, and knows all 18 formations. He gets a two-year deal for $4.9M.

2013 AMATEUR DRAFT
I'm sitting at #31. If there's a QB worth having, I could afford to get to 1(10), I think.

Well, both QBs worth having went too high for me to make a move, so I stick at 1(31). Here's my draft:

1(31)--SLB Jimmy Bullock (19/42)--A 2-red/3-blue guy. I don't have a particularly good SLB, so he should be a nice fit.
2(31)--LT Randy Myers (27/58)--Red strengh, blue in dash/agi.
3(31)--TE Edgar Dawkins (22/37)--I don't need a TE, but this guy is so far above everyone else left that I can't resist him. 5 blues, 1 red.
4(31)--RG Vincent Walker (25/33)--I could really use another guard with the departure of McIntyre. This guy looks like he could have a lot of masking.
5(31)--P Cornell Abrams (43/54)--4-blue punter. I haven't had a good one so far.
6(31)--SILB Travis Harward (18/43)--4 blue, 1 green. Could be a solid player.
7(31)--LT Andrew Szott (8/52)--No-combine guy with decent-looking bars.

FA2 is uneventful. Backups and roster-fillers. No one gets more than minsal as that's all I can afford.

2013 TRAINING CAMP NOTES

• 1st-round pick SLB Bullock is +5/+7.
• Ouch. Backup RB Jermaine Cornell is -11.
• 3rd-round TE Edgar Dawkins is +4/+9.

FOF puts our roster strength at 52.

2013 Roster/Outlook
 

I'm not going to change much about the offense. Let's see what a higher-rated QB can do in it.

Roberts did a better job at QB, but he we ran into a buzzsaw in the NFC Championship Game.
Other thoughts...

• We could stand to improve the run defense. No real complaints on offense, except for our weak 3rd down conversion percentage.
• That said, the running game did take a step in the wrong direction.
• WR Helm really stepped it up.
• The QB on an AI team (Denver) had a monster year:

• QB George Blair

  Denver

  379-503 (75%, 30 bad, 304 suc) 4641 yds pass (9.23 ypa), 43 TD, 2 INT, 18 sacked, 130.2 rat, 28-134 yds rush (4.79 ypc), 1 TD, 0 forloss, 1 suc, 4 fumb (0 lost) ( 2017.974565 )

Um....wow.

AWARDS
WR Gabe Helm--1st Team All-Pro: 106 catches, 1795 yards, 18 TDs, 9.65 ypt.
WLB Rex Spolane--1st Team All-Pro: 13.5 sacks, 28 hurries, 61 tackles

I realize you've began already, but for future tries (hah!), you might want to make that top6 for the real in-game big money contracts. the margin of difference between pick7 and pick11 is smaller than the margin between pick6 and pick7. Just a FYI.

Edit: never mind, actually. The gap from pick11 to pick12 is also pretty large, usually even bigger. Makes top10 make easier to work with and challenging enough. Nothing to see here, move along.

Two questions:
* How'd you come up with these particular numbers?
* For the speed of the dynastry, won't it be easier to not go with the 3.4 and 2.2 kind of stuff, but keep 5 tiers or some such? (something like 10%, 7.5%, 4.0%, 2.0%, 1.0%) Or are they printed in memory already? :D

Quick analysis: once again, challenging loses out to interesting

1. I did a data-dump from WOOF and CCFL (25% cap reduction leagues) a while ago of all FA signings rated in the 45-55 overall rating range and just figured out the averages from MP. And then I bumped up QB and WR considerably. Those are subject to change when I have actual cap room.
2. Neither. It wouldn't be easier and I don't have them memorized. What I do have is a very simple spreadsheet that does this for me. I only have to make one entry at the beginning of FA each year: the in-game salary cap. From there it tells me exactly how much a 3-year deal has to be to a FA of each position:

	SALARY CAP	153.1
	Effective Cap	102.6
RATE	POS	TOT CONTRACT	CAP HIT
0.075	QB	23.08	7.7
0.034	RB	10.46	3.5
0.013	FB	4.00	1.3
0.018	TE	5.54	1.8
0.1	WR	30.77	10.3
0.039	OT	12.00	4.0
0.025	OG	7.69	2.6
0.022	C	6.77	2.3
0.008	P	2.46	0.8
0.013	K	4.00	1.3
0.028	DE	8.62	2.9
0.028	DT	8.62	2.9
0.032	OLB	9.85	3.3
0.027	ILB	8.31	2.8
0.042	CB	12.92	4.3
0.027	S	8.31	2.8

Column 4 tells me how much cap room at a quick glance, then when I enter the actual contract, I look at the third column to tell me the total value it needs to be. I've messed around with this idea in non-posted SP careers, and it's much faster than coming up with contracts on my own.
So far, yes. However, it turns out that a comment I made last season about cap relief coming was dead wrong: I had forgotten to put the reduction in for 2014, so I was off by over $50M on my cap room for this year; instead of starting off $20M over the cap, I'm $31M under. I'm about to do this season, and I think there will be significant cuts this year. We'll see where this goes...

Yeah. Just entered the numbers into my other cap-related spreadsheet. I need to clear around $35M, and looking at my "Save If Release" numbers, that's not likely to be easy.

Yeah, renegs only get me within ~$15M of where I need to be. Significant cuts coming...

2014 Offseason Part I (Just the cuts)
 

FRANCHISE: None.

I start the cuts with the older guys. Gone are the following starters:

RB Donnie Watson--yr 6, 79/79. Every way I sliced it, this guy had to go. I suspect that these house rules simply don't allow a stud RB long-term.
WR Roosevelt Rodgers--yr 7, 54/54. I'm hoping my 42/42 former WR3 can be a "good enough" WR2, and I will use more 2-TE since I drafted that good one in the 3rd round last year.
LT Kenyon Brovins--yr 9, 44/44. Hasn't performed well enough to be making over minsal imho.
DE Gerald McArthur--yr 12, 36/36. He was the easiest cut with his production dropping off, but doesn't save us all that much, either.
DE Anthony Seiferling--yr 3, 28/28. Again, not expensive, but I can't afford a guy like this above minsal.
WLB Rex Spolane-yr 12, 45/45. Still had 76 PRT, 92 PRS, but old and expensive.
SS Thomas Banks--yr 12, 76/76. 3-time all-pro is old, expensive, and struggled a bit in pass coverage last year.
With these 7 starters gone, I am able to field a legal team. I'm thinking I will do no more than this, mostly sit out FA, and evaluate how things go. The monster-stud CB is in the final year of his deal, so there will be some flexibility next year, it appears.
I also cut some former draftees who were clearly not up to snuff.

With the cuts above, I'll be able to field a legal roster with several minsal starters, but those will need to be picked up in FA2 after I know what I get in the draft.


2014 AMATEUR DRAFT
I'm sitting at #28, and can't really see trading up. We have tons of needs after those cuts.

1(28)--RG Vinny Bishop (26/45)--2 reds and 2 blues and we have only one decent guard under contract.
2(28)--RCB Glen Stokes (15/41)--2 reds and 2 blues. Only CB rated above the mid 30s under contract.
3(28)--RDT--->LDE Wade Martin (23/50)--We have zero DEs under contract and this guy is a pass-rush specialist weighing only 285. He switches with “no change to ratings.”
4(28)--SILB Darnell Kirk (14/36)--Another weak position. Hopefully this 2-blue dude can help out.
5(28)--RB Seth Bronson(19/32)--3 blues and obviously we have a huge void at this position now.
6(28)--WLB Kirk Bell (20/26)--Interesting combines: 3 blues, 2 greens. Looks like he should be able to get after the QB, and we've only got one OLB under contract.
7(28)--LT Bart Dodge (19/28)--Hey, I just cut my starter, so why not draft a mediocre replacement?

We have a small amount (less than $1.5M) to spend in FA2. We sign ok-looking guys at RB and WR:


RB Jimmy Gribble (42/42)--Good breakaway, but weak in HR and Elusiveness. Solid (52) endurance. Might end up being our RB1 this year.
FL Joel Huffman (40/42)--Could be a decent WR2/WR3, though his avoid drops rating of 20 isn't exactly getting me revved up. This third-year guy gets a one-year deal.


All other signees are rookie FAs.


2013 TRAINING CAMP NOTES

• 1st-round pick RG-->LG Vinny Bishop is +4/+4.
• Our 2^nd and 3^rd round picks, CB Stokes and DE Martin, are both +4/+5.
• All other draftees dropped a hair or stayed the same in future. Meh.

FOF puts our roster strength at 44.

2014 Roster/Outlook
 

Lots of newness and our cohesion has dropped. I'm not really sure what to expect, though if I had to predict, I'd say something like 10-6/11-5.

Yeah, 10-6. We upped 2-TE a bit on offense, and I think that paid off. I also instituted a couple of restraints on game planning that I probably should document. It's basically “no tricking the AI.” So...

• 1^st and 2^nd and short must be 51% running or more.
• 3^rd and Long must be 30% running or less.

I wasn't violating the latter, but I was using 25% running on 1^st and 5, and 40% passing on 2^nd and short. Anyway, the numbers:







Other thoughts...

• Pass defense is still stellar. Run defense is still weak. Not sure I want to do much to change that.
• 15 RB fumbles. Hmmmm...
• Loved seeing the tight ends both have solid seasons. We didn't go all 2-TE, more like 50% in most situations. QB Roberts knows four of the five 2-TE sets.
• We might be able to participate in FA1 a bit next year. Monster-stud CB Covert's contract expires and will be franchised, but even after signing him I think we will have $5M-$15M to spend

AWARDS
LCB Glen Covert, 1^st Team All Pro: 6 ints, 48 catches, 14 passes defended, 82.5PDPCt.

Nice to survive after those cuts

2015 Offseason Part I
 

CB Glen Covert gets tagged and extended.

As expected, I do have a bit to spend in FA: around $5M.


With only five players left from the initial draft, I think it's time for a detailed roster examination.


QB

Code:

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  Player                #  Pos  Start Exp  Current Estimate  Future Estimate Cntrct

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Roberts has been solid the last two years for us, but wants more than I would like to spend on a guy like him. That said, his major “bargaining chip” is that he knows 17 formations. Swann does know 3 of the 5 2-TE sets (as many as any of the QBs in FA right now,) so he could very well end up getting the call this season. He has 59 Sense Rush and 40 Accuracy, so I suspect that he wouldn't be terrible. The only QB in the draft that I'd want to spend top 10 money on is likely to go in the Top 3. I probably don't have the ammo to trade up to there, and if I did, I don't see affording it. So, all this said, it looks like I'm going to go with Devin Swann (25/25) as my QB this season. Yikes.


RB

Code:

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Gribble, Jimmy          32  RB          8    38                38                2 yrs

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Gribble had 7 fumbles in 153 carries prior to last season's 12 in 300, so I suppose it shouldn't have been a surprise. There's a low-priced 44/44 FA RB with only 1 fumble in 300 carries. He's like to be a primary FA target.


FB

Code:

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Ostwald, Mack          21  FB          7    67                67                4 yrs

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We're set here. No complaints.


TE

Code:

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Morris, Dave            83  TE          7    73                73                4 yrs

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Good to go here, though there's 40/40 guy in FA who could make a good #3 if, as I suspect, we continue to use a fair bit of 2-TE.


WR

Code:

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Ginsberg, Archie        85  FL          6    43                43                --- 

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This could well be Helm's last season with us. Ginsberg isn't asking for much and will therefore be pursued in FA. Torres is a modest creeper (started out at 11/22.)




OL

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Haggan, Earnest        55  C          4    74                74                5 yrs

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Pretty nice young offensive line, though we're lacking at LT. I wonder if another result of the house rules will be that I will go young here. I haven't really done this intentionally, but the fact that all 9 o-line guys are in year 4 or less is at the very least worth noting.


P/K

Code:

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Abrams, Cornell        13  P          3    53                53                1 yr.

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I suspect that these positions will be an endless parade of late-round draftees and minsal pickups.


DL

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Tiessen, Buddy          99  LDE        2    15                20                --- 

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Martin and Tisdale are guys I'd like to keep around long-term. It'd be nice to pick up another DE with a pulse.


LB

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Royster, Bubba          93  SILB        8    47                47                3 yrs

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Former undrafted FA Butler wants modest money. I'm thinking I'll just move Harward to WILB to avoid paying that. At WLB, I'm hoping Kirk Bell's very weak overall ratings will keep him cheap. He's got 65 PRT, 64 PRS, 52 Endurance, though, so he's looking like a pretty darned solid 3-4 WLB.


DB

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Covert, Glen            24  LCB        7    93                93                4 yrs

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Good pass defense has been the constant of this team through our 4-year playoff run. We've fluctuated in other stats, but we've been no worse than #4 in the league in passing yards allowed the past four seasons. We could use a safety.


NEEDS/GOALS


So, based on that more detailed look, I guess these need to be our offseason goals this year:

• Resolve QB Situation
• Pursue the low-fumbling (so far) RB in FA
• Try to get the 40/40 TE in FA.
• Keep WR Ginberg
• Address LT, DE, and S, possibly through draft

2015 FA1 SIGNINGS

• DE Dustin Levin (35/35, yr 7)--Nothing special, but better than what I've had. Minbonus.
• TE Brant Clinton (41/41, yr 6)--Pretty solid pass-catching skills as my third TE.
• WR Archie Ginsberg (43/43, yr 6)--Re-signing.
• RB Mercury Anderson (44/44, yr 6)--70 Endurance and has only fumbled once in 300 career carries. I'm hoping he'll keep that up.
• SS Jim Garner (52/52, yr 5)--Garner becomes my first “in the money” FA signing. He gets ~$3M per year. The House Rule minimum for his position was $2.9M per year, but he wouldn't take that.

Signing Garner puts us in where LT and DE become our primary addressable needs in the draft. Looking at the class, I doubt we'll address LT. There are two guys I like, but both likely go in the Top 10. DE looks more promising, with one guy in particular that I might be willing to trade up to #15ish to grab if he's still there.

2015 Roster/Outlook
 

Major preseason injury: TE Dave Morris (72/72) tears his ACL and will not play this season. Here's the roster:


We'll scale back the 2-TE this season now...

As far as outlook, I really have no idea what to expect. I'm going to guess 9-7, though.

9-7 and a win in the WC Round. Not bad for missing a key player on offense. Swann did well enough at QB. I'm hoping his numbers were low enough that I can sign him to a cheap 3-year deal.

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2015 Summary for Atlanta Falcons

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Other thoughts...

• As hoped, there was a drastic reduction in RB fumbles this year.
• We might have enough cap room to re-sign WR Helm on the open market. That would be fun.
• I'm not sure why the pass defense dropped off a bit.

AWARDS
LCB Glen Covert, 1^st Team All Pro: 7 ints, 39 catches, 14 passes defended, 85.9PDPCt.
C Earnest Haggan, 2^nd Team All Pro: 32 for 108 KRB, 6 pk, 5 sacks allowed
SLB Jimmy Bulluck, 2^nd Team All Pro: 106 tkl, 26 ast, 10.5 sk, 2 INT.

2016 OffSeason Part I
 

No franchise tag. (No one worthy that I'm allowed to tag.)

After renegs/extensions/RFAs, we have a little over $20M to spend in FA. Of course, our #1 WR and starting QB are both FAs, so most of it will probably go to those positions. Per my house rules, WR Helm (73/73) is due at least $11M per year, which is exactly his asking price. Of course, I have to do that with an all-bonus deal.


Interesting decision at QB. Swann (26/26) wants a very affordable contract and is in his 6^th year on the team. There's also a 40/40 guy with 54 SR and 48 Accuracy in FA who would be even cheaper. I decide to go with Swann and his cohesion.


I'm going to assume Helm, with 100 Loyalty and a high-bonus contract for pretty much the same $$/yr as his asking price, is going to sign with us, and that Swann will be uncontested. That leaves me with around $7M to play with. I decide to go after an OT ($4.3M per year required). The 56/56 guy I want wants a little more than my minimum, and is offered $4.8M per year.



So, three deals offered prior to FA1:2. Signings in the next post...

2016 FA Signings
 

QB Devin Swann (26/26)--He re-signs immediately for 3yrs/$11.08M. I think it's the right move for us.
FL Gabe Helm (73/73)--Signs in stage 3 for flat deal of 3ys/$32.9M.
RT Ryan Friedlander (56/56)--3yrs/$14.4M. Very solid pass-blocking guy.

That leaves me a bit of cap room, but I'd like to keep that around just in case a trade-up scenario materializes in the draft. There are some solid-looking QBs that could fall a bit.

Pffft. The three QBs I liked went 1-2-5.

Yeah, sometimes the draft gods giveth, and some times they taketh away. You'll get someone soon!