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-   -   Werewolf CXXIV - Watchmen (Game Over, Wolves Win!, endpost:704) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=80532)

The Jackal 02-02-2011 10:02 PM

Believe that is correct. Anyone doubting?

saldana 02-02-2011 10:02 PM

wow, wasnt expecting that.guess we find out what the tiebreaker is

PackerFanatic 02-02-2011 10:03 PM

Ah, I thought it was a tie too. Got it now.

Danny 02-02-2011 10:03 PM

That looks right Jackal.

EagleFan 02-02-2011 10:04 PM

Something seems fishy...

The Jackal 02-02-2011 10:04 PM

Was 6-4 for saldana when he switched to ntn, making it 6-5, then with Lathum's switch it switched to 6-5 for ntn. Proceeding with writeup.

Lathum 02-02-2011 10:05 PM

If NTN is the duke and dukes it to me I'll shoot myself

PackerFanatic 02-02-2011 10:06 PM

Yeah I thought for some reason sal's unvote was from himself...obviously that wasn't the case, heh.

Still, the late movement will be very telling tomorrow methinks.

PackerFanatic 02-02-2011 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2418815)
If NTN is the duke and dukes it to me I'll shoot myself


lol

hoopsguy 02-02-2011 10:08 PM

As I noted earlier, Lathum tends to give Saldana the benefit of the doubt until there is no reason to do so.

I'm not going to read anything more into it than that unless someone has information to reveal that suggests otherwise. Hope that the switch tonight was a good one and that whatever vibe I got from NTN (which is hard to do, fwiw) was wrong.

The Jackal 02-02-2011 10:08 PM

Who will it be?

Saldana? Sure looked like it. He was ready to move to the guillotine until one of you made a late move to switch the result.

NTN is sent forwards. As he reaches the guillotine, you prepare to put a hood on him when you notice.. he is already wearing one! He laughs wickedly in no particular direction and steps up to his fate. Without further ado, his head is separated from his body.

NTN was Hooded Justice, the cultist!

PackerFanatic 02-02-2011 10:10 PM

Well hot damn.

Danny 02-02-2011 10:10 PM

Hmmm, that's not great, but not the worst lynch that could happen. Jackal, did the cultist know the wolves and vice versa?

The Jackal 02-02-2011 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2418824)
Hmmm, that's not great, but not the worst lynch that could happen. Jackal, did the cultist know the wolves and vice versa?


The cultist did not know who the wolves were, nor did they know who he was.

The Jackal 02-02-2011 10:12 PM

Night actions due by Thursday, 930 AM EST.

PackerFanatic 02-02-2011 10:12 PM

Technically it's a wolf, but not one that could have been found out - so it doesn't help us a whole lot.

saldana 02-02-2011 10:12 PM

i dont think he knew them

Danny 02-02-2011 10:14 PM

Not really, he counted as a villager. It's not a bad lynch, but nothing to get too excited about.

PackerFanatic 02-02-2011 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2418830)
Not really, he counted as a villager. It's not a bad lynch, but nothing to get too excited about.


But he also won with the wolves.

hoopsguy 02-02-2011 10:16 PM

Yep, no voting record information to take from the movement tonight.

The content of the posts may be a different matter, but not the votes themselves.

Lathum 02-02-2011 10:19 PM

decent outcome

saldana 02-02-2011 10:22 PM

honestly, i dont think we can complain at all about the last two deaths...yeah, they were villagers, but they were the most annoying villagers out there...they would have caused problems down the road.

EagleFan 02-02-2011 11:02 PM

Unless we see something from ntn that could have been a sign to the wolves we have to treat him being voted out like any other villager for vote history.

Darth Vilus 02-03-2011 02:05 AM

Yeah it wasn't the best lynch but if we were going to miss a wolf this would have been the way to go I guess. No harm no foul.

Overall not a terrible day I say

The Jackal 02-03-2011 09:43 AM

Results coming shortly.

The Jackal 02-03-2011 09:47 AM

You wake up for another day of decision making, and yet again someone is missing.

Lathum.

Upon searching his quarters, you realize that you have lost the very person you gathered together to protect.

Lathum was Edward Blake, the Comedian!

Day three begins with the culprits still at large.

Danny 02-03-2011 09:53 AM

Crap, just erased my post. Anyway, in short, I said that sucks and need to get going.

PackerFanatic 02-03-2011 09:57 AM

That's no good...

Lathum 02-03-2011 10:03 AM

poop

saldana 02-03-2011 11:20 AM

odd choice to kill Lathum...most wolves leave him alive on the concept that he will eventually get lynched for simply still being alive...

hoopsguy 02-03-2011 11:37 AM

Yep, I'm not grasping the wolf logic on Thomkal and then Lathum as the night kills.

I think Lathum might have drawn some attention today for his late vote swing, seeing as how it did not net a wolf and it "saved" a player. So that seems odd, although he might also have been a scan candidate for the same reasons (plus his reputation). So maybe that was a reason to go for it ... dunno.

I'm going to run some voting numbers, but more as good practice than having an agenda in mind.

hoopsguy 02-03-2011 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2418243)
Autumn - 6 - (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)


Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2418802)
ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)


Those are the vote totals for the first two days, listed just before lynch results.

saldana 02-03-2011 11:43 AM

ok, while i still have a bad feeling about EF because of the way he started the run on me for no reason yesterday, i am going to start today in a different direction.

Darth is playing a very similar style game to what he did in the last game (when he was a wolf)...drive by votes, popping in and out and not really saying much (i know he is working, but i seem to remember in the past, that he was somewhat more insightful)

the playstyle just seems very much the same, so i am gonna go with my hunch.

vote darth vilus

jeff061 02-03-2011 11:52 AM

I think at this point I want to put a spotlight on some of the more silent players(purposley or not). See how voting goes around and hopefully get them to defend. There's a few to consider but for now:

VOTE J23

jeff061 02-03-2011 11:55 AM

I only see 2 possibilities for the Lathum kill. He was scanned or the wolves were just trying to throw some confusion around a late vote switch. I tend to agree with him being scanned.

I found the Thomkal slaying much stranger.

Chief Rum 02-03-2011 12:06 PM

Preliminary trust list. We don't have much to go on just yet without a wolf kill, so hopefully Rorschach is having some luck.

Feeling Good

Danny
hoopsguy

Leaning Good

jeff61
DaddyTorgo

No Real Read

Darth Vilus
J23
EagleFan (my EF read is best descibed as "confused")

Slight Distrust

PackerFanatic

Distrust

saldana

Most of my feelings either way are based on vibe alone, I'll admit, so take that into consideration. Some of it is from the vote yesterday. Although the wolves couldn't have known what Lathum would do, nor do we know if they cared (re: sal's allegiance), most of the village was involved in that head to head, and the wolves would have been a part of it. And what happened, a tight vote with a last minute switch that killed a villager (from all outward purposes, no one knew ntn was the cultist).

So I feel suspicious toward late voters on ntn and less suspicious of late voters on sal.

Of course, it could have been villager-villager and this is all meaningless. but that's my read on things so far.

hoopsguy 02-03-2011 12:16 PM

Here is the voting record (including switches) from Day 1, along with a couple of other notes that I took while going through the posts.

#74 - DT votes Hoops 1-0
#78 - Lathum votes Danny 1-1 Hoops/Danny
#81 - Autumn votes J23 1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23
#82 - PF votes Autumn 1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn
#84 - Hoops votes DT 1-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn/DT
#85 - Thomkal votes Jeff 1-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#89 - Jeff votes Hoops 2-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops over Danny/J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#90 - EF votes Danny 2-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny over J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#91 - Hoops unvotes DT, votes EF 2-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny over J23/Autumn/Jeff/EF
#94 - EF unvotes Danny, votes Hoops 3-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops over J23/Autumn/Jeff/EF/Danny
#95 - CR votes Autumn, 3-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops over Autumn over J23/Jeff/EF/Danny
#97 - Saldana votes EF, 3-2-2-1-1-1 Hoops over Autumn/EF over J23/Jeff/Danny
#100 - NTN votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1-1 Hoops/Autumn over EF over J23/Jeff/Danny
#104 - Lathum unvotes Danny, votes EF 3-3-3-1-1 Hoops/Autumn/EF over J23/Jeff
#109 - DT unvotes Hoops 3-3-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#111 - DV votes Autumn 4-3-2-1-1 Autumn over EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#112 - Danny votes EF 4-4-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#117 - Autumn unvotes J23, votes Danny 4-4-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over Jeff/Danny
#123 - Thomkal unvotes Jeff, votes Danny 4-4-2-2 Autumn/EF over Hoops/Danny
#126 - EF unvotes Hoops, votes Danny 4-4-3-1 Autumn/EF over Danny over Hoops
#152 - DT votes Autumn, 5-4-3-1 Autumn over EF over Danny over Hoops
#157 - EF unvotes Danny, votes Autumn 6-4-2-1 Autumn over EF over Hoops

Role claims:
Vanilla - Hoops, CR

Day 1:
If EF is bad, who looks good/bad?
Good - me, Saldana, Danny
Bad - DT, DV

EF had a measured approach to his votes on D1 - nothing wildly out of character, but cautious and showing he was going to be around for the duration to protect himself. That suggests either roled villager or wolf to me. Roled villager obviously a possibility, but wolves didn't go in his direction over first two nights.

saldana 02-03-2011 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2419088)
Preliminary trust list. We don't have much to go on just yet without a wolf kill, so hopefully Rorschach is having some luck.

Feeling Good

Danny
hoopsguy

Leaning Good

jeff61
DaddyTorgo

No Real Read

Darth Vilus
J23
EagleFan (my EF read is best descibed as "confused")

Slight Distrust

PackerFanatic

Distrust

saldana

Most of my feelings either way are based on vibe alone, I'll admit, so take that into consideration. Some of it is from the vote yesterday. Although the wolves couldn't have known what Lathum would do, nor do we know if they cared (re: sal's allegiance), most of the village was involved in that head to head, and the wolves would have been a part of it. And what happened, a tight vote with a last minute switch that killed a villager (from all outward purposes, no one knew ntn was the cultist).

So I feel suspicious toward late voters on ntn and less suspicious of late voters on sal.

Of course, it could have been villager-villager and this is all meaningless. but that's my read on things so far.


i realize being at the bottom of this list puts me into a certain bias, but this is horrible...what exactly have hoops and danny done besides being hoops and danny to be so trusted?

conversely, what have i dont to be so distrusted?

all i did to set EF off was defend hoops, so hoops is auto-trusted, but me, for defending him, is auto-distrusted?

:confused:

jeff061 02-03-2011 12:31 PM

I only trust Danny because the 2 people that voted for him were killed, which puts a focus on him. I wouldn't expect the wolves to do that, but who knows.

I have absolutely zero trust for Hoops at this point :D. And his opinion on EF seems to be a bit manipulative.

Chief Rum 02-03-2011 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2419094)
i realize being at the bottom of this list puts me into a certain bias, but this is horrible...what exactly have hoops and danny done besides being hoops and danny to be so trusted?

conversely, what have i dont to be so distrusted?

all i did to set EF off was defend hoops, so hoops is auto-trusted, but me, for defending him, is auto-distrusted?

:confused:


Well, first, recall, I said most of this based on my vibe about how things are going. So it's not entirely something I can explain, and for that reason, the rest of the village should properly take that into consideration. It's a suggestion of the ways I am leaning, not any clearcut proof one or another on anyone.

Danny and hoops (along with jeff) are the only players left in the game who did not to our knowledge vote to kill a villager. Their vote targets are all still uncleared players, but you and I and everyone else have all placed at least one vote that got a villager killed. That's inconclusive overall, but it gives them a little benefit.

Where I find you look bad is more perhaps for being in a circumstance you may have not had much control over, which was yesterday's vote. A tight vote with switching around gets a villager killed. It makes sense to look askance at the other vote target. If two villagers are up, it seems less likely we would see such movement and late voting, even if the critical voter Lathum himself turned out to be a villager. Of course, this could have been manipulated by the wolves to make us waste a day lynching you to be sure, and I am perfectly aware of that. But that doesn't mean it's an angle we should not explore.

Like I said, though, that's just what I can point to in the thread and vote history. But a lot of this is just a vibe. I guess how you read it is based on whatever your opinion of my vibes is.

hoopsguy 02-03-2011 01:02 PM

I'm not going out of my way to be trusted, at the moment. I don't think I've done anything deserving either high or low trust.

I do, however, think that EF was one convenient person to look at in trying to make sense of the Day 1 vote. I would think you could do the same thing looking at either me or Danny, in terms of votes moving later in the day. But I'm not going to make cases with me=bad because it serves no point in my mind. If others want to do so, they should absolutely take the data I posted and run with it.

I'm going to turn my attenion towards Day 2 later this afternoon, and then start working towards a vote if there is no new information published that helps sift through the data.

Chief Rum 02-03-2011 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2419110)
I'm not going out of my way to be trusted, at the moment. I don't think I've done anything deserving either high or low trust.

I do, however, think that EF was one convenient person to look at in trying to make sense of the Day 1 vote. I would think you could do the same thing looking at either me or Danny, in terms of votes moving later in the day. But I'm not going to make cases with me=bad because it serves no point in my mind. If others want to do so, they should absolutely take the data I posted and run with it.

I'm going to turn my attenion towards Day 2 later this afternoon, and then start working towards a vote if there is no new information published that helps sift through the data.


Agreed on the self-introspection. For instance, I don't include myself in that last because that would be nonsensicle to me. I know I'm good.

But to the rest of you who don't know, you would use my system and note I voted to kill villagers both days, which certainly doesn't help my cause.

saldana 02-03-2011 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2419109)
Well, first, recall, I said most of this based on my vibe about how things are going. So it's not entirely something I can explain, and for that reason, the rest of the village should properly take that into consideration. It's a suggestion of the ways I am leaning, not any clearcut proof one or another on anyone.

Danny and hoops (along with jeff) are the only players left in the game who did not to our knowledge vote to kill a villager. Their vote targets are all still uncleared players, but you and I and everyone else have all placed at least one vote that got a villager killed. That's inconclusive overall, but it gives them a little benefit.

Where I find you look bad is more perhaps for being in a circumstance you may have not had much control over, which was yesterday's vote. A tight vote with switching around gets a villager killed. It makes sense to look askance at the other vote target. If two villagers are up, it seems less likely we would see such movement and late voting, even if the critical voter Lathum himself turned out to be a villager. Of course, this could have been manipulated by the wolves to make us waste a day lynching you to be sure, and I am perfectly aware of that. But that doesn't mean it's an angle we should not explore.

Like I said, though, that's just what I can point to in the thread and vote history. But a lot of this is just a vibe. I guess how you read it is based on whatever your opinion of my vibes is.


and here is why i almost never put out "lists" like yours...

you throw people out there at various levels of trust that are completely arbritrary, and unless you are challenged on them, you never actually explain anything besides saying its based on vibes...

if i hadnt come back at your list, you would have just left me under the proverbial bus without ever saying that I havent actually done anything myself to deserve being there.


unvote Darth
vote Chief Rum

Chief Rum 02-03-2011 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2419129)
and here is why i almost never put out "lists" like yours...

you throw people out there at various levels of trust that are completely arbritrary, and unless you are challenged on them, you never actually explain anything besides saying its based on vibes...

if i hadnt come back at your list, you would have just left me under the proverbial bus without ever saying that I havent actually done anything myself to deserve being there.


unvote Darth
vote Chief Rum


If you'll forgive me for saying it, sal, but I think you're getting too emotional about it, or at least that's the way it looks to me.

Anyone using my list alone as a basis for their vote should really be questioning what they are doing or are looking to hide behind someone else's post so as to not take any chances themselves.

As for the list itself, it may appear arbitrary to you, but I have my reasons. I talked about some; I have other feelings about certain things, but nothing but hints at this point. If you want full exposure I could write a book about it, but I don't think any of us here wants that.

Also, if you can't see that Lathum's move yesterday, with a villager dying puts the spotlight on you, then I don't think there's anything else I can see that will get you to recognize that.

J23 02-03-2011 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2419109)
Danny and hoops (along with jeff) are the only players left in the game who did not to our knowledge vote to kill a villager. Their vote targets are all still uncleared players, but you and I and everyone else have all placed at least one vote that got a villager killed. That's inconclusive overall, but it gives them a little benefit.


In my experience, wolves end up with clean records more often than villagers when it comes to lynch votes. Especially when you're talking about day1 votes, where it is completely luck for the villagers.

Chief Rum 02-03-2011 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J23 (Post 2419139)
In my experience, wolves end up with clean records more often than villagers when it comes to lynch votes. Especially when you're talking about day1 votes, where it is completely luck for the villagers.


Yup, another reason why no one should be taking my list verbatim as the truth. I'm not likely to know much more than anyone else (besides wolves). It's an "at this point" post, and as we progress further in the game, I can take ti and re-evaluate as I go along.

jeff061 02-03-2011 02:26 PM

Actually agree with that. As much as I like having good stuff pointed my way, the bottom line is I just didn't vote for someone who has been killed yet. Don't believe that's a useful metric in a relatively young game where we don't have a single confirmed wolf.

J23 02-03-2011 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419082)
I think at this point I want to put a spotlight on some of the more silent players(purposley or not). See how voting goes around and hopefully get them to defend. There's a few to consider but for now:

VOTE J23


I'm not sure how I'm expected to defend this. I missed day1, which may explain why I was particularly quiet that day.

jeff061 02-03-2011 02:47 PM

Anything approaching a logical choice at this point in time is aimed at what people say, thus the people contributing and saying the most will be hung first. I just don't think that's productive.

I certainly have my own list, similar to Chief's, but I hardly have anything substantial to go on. And have nothing to go on either way with people that don't post much.

EagleFan 02-03-2011 03:11 PM

vote saldana


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