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-   -   Werewolf CXXIV - Watchmen (Game Over, Wolves Win!, endpost:704) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=80532)

EagleFan 02-04-2011 02:17 PM

Trying to do some number crunching.

If it's 6-3 now...

We take out a wolf tonight and subsequent night kill it will be 5-2 (unless we get the brutal and he takes out the 2 for 1 lover in that case it's 3-2).

One more wolf makes it probably 2-1 as we would be taking the brutal by getting one of those two.


If the jeff reveal is fake...

We take out a villager today which ends up making it 4-3. Once we take out the brutal we lose at that point.


If the wolves know that those roles are not in the game they may try to force end game with that play.

With that said, I would lean more towards sal/J23 as the wolves instead of jeff/DV.

EagleFan 02-04-2011 02:18 PM

I'll have to check in on my phone tonight to see how this plays out.

EagleFan 02-04-2011 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2419657)
Here is another look at the final votes.

Day 1:
Autumn - 6 (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
- Known Good = DT
- Presumed Good = PF, CR
- Scanned Good = EF
- Unknown = DV
- Unattached Bad = NTN
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
- Known Good = Lathum
- Scanned Good = Hoops, Danny
- Unknown = Saldana
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
- Known Good = Autumn, Thomkal
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)
- Unknown = Jeff
Did not vote = J23

Day 2:
ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
- Known Good = Lathum
- Presumed Good = CR, PF
- Unknown = DV, J23, Saldana
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
- Known Good = DT
- Scanned Good = EF, Danny, Hoops
- Unknown = Jeff
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)
- Unattached Bad = NTN

Day 3:
DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
- Scanned Good = EF
- Unknown = DV, Jeff, J23, Saldana

EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
- Known Good = DT
- Presumed Good = CR
- Scanned Good = Hoops
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
- Scanned Good = Danny
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)
- Presumed Good = PF


No way the wolves bunch all three votes on DT at that point. In hoops theory they are saving the cunning. Why? Why not gain trust by nailing the cunning. Especially when the seer outs himself and is presumed to be the night kill (since it seems that only PF knew about his chance to make a block).

jeff061 02-04-2011 02:27 PM

Day 3 was just a weird vote. We need to see who was or was not around at the deadline. I mean, Hoops aside, you have every single current suspect on DT that day.

EagleFan 02-04-2011 02:29 PM

Sorry, everything got me thinking.

ntn avoids me and sal like the plague on day two. Sal then votes me instead of voting ntn which could have saved him even more and ties me for the lead with him. Why would a wolf try to push the cunning into the lead at that point when it would do them no good at all?

hoops is a better player than that, he should be able to see all of that. Ask yourselves why he is conveniently overlooking all of that?

There are two posts that don't make sense to me. Two players posted consecutive posts with the same information. An attempt to signal the cultist? I know hoops was one of them but will have to find the other. It stood out because I don't remember seeing anything like that in previous games with people deciding to post the same information in back to back posts.

jeff061 02-04-2011 02:30 PM

And I didn't think of the Brutal. Bit of a risk gambling that the brutal will be picked, rather than just waiting out longer today and trying to steer the vote.

I made it 2 are good or 2 are bad. I think if I was a wolf I'd be wanting to keep that group of 4 murky. If a wolf or villager gets voted out tonight, then we still have 3 possibilities. That's no longer the case.

saldana 02-04-2011 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419767)
And now I feel like an idiot for reading that wrong. Hopefully not held against me. Sure it will be.


lol..yeah...you are saying you are Laurie and you didnt know the rules of your own role??!!!!!

What!!!!

unvote EF
vote Jeff

jeff061 02-04-2011 02:47 PM

Well it's more of our role than my role. Different conditions on who dies and whether Manhattan is alive for which person and who I can scan for in what scenario.

I know it's not rocket science, but I did misread it.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 02:48 PM

EF, you keep saying "my theory" - I'm hardly the only person considering that you may be the cunning wolf. If you are trying to get me to press the issue, you're doing a good job of it by playing it this way.

Jeff, I didn't put the suspect there in that post - that is how they voted. Unless I'm somehow posting as them, that one is not on me :)

jeff061 02-04-2011 02:52 PM

By suspect I mean the 4 under consideration today and potentially you/eagle as cunning. Out of those 6 all but you voted for DT.

Really meant to use it as an example of a crazy day, all the votes coming in after a Chief reveal.

jeff061 02-04-2011 02:58 PM

For what's it's worth, with everyone here focusing on those four and Saldana makes a point of focusing and voting on Eagle? My speculation is it's a move meant to improve Eagle's standing if Saldana gets lynched. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

saldana 02-04-2011 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419785)
Well it's more of our role than my role. Different conditions on who dies and whether Manhattan is alive for which person and who I can scan for in what scenario.

I know it's not rocket science, but I did misread it.


so you are trying to say that you got both roles in your PM?

saldana 02-04-2011 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419791)
For what's it's worth, with everyone here focusing on those four and Saldana makes a point of focusing and voting on Eagle? My speculation is it's a move meant to improve Eagle's standing if Saldana gets lynched. But I'm getting ahead of myself.


i have been focusing on eagle for 4 days...my behavior hasnt changed at all.

jeff061 02-04-2011 03:04 PM

I'm trying to say when forming a strategy and understanding our role you view it as one. I'm just saying there are a lot of and, if's and or's and I misread it.

As far as the PM question. I'd love to answer, but I thought spelling out PMs was frowned upon? Not sure why it's relevant anyways.

You are really crashing after this aren't you?

PackerFanatic 02-04-2011 03:12 PM

UNVOTE JEFF061
VOTE J23

I probably won't be around at deadline, which is unfortunate depending on how things turn out tonight...

J23 02-04-2011 03:13 PM

Forgot to do this earlier. With Manhattan alive atm, it's a lot better to be wrong lynching DV than Jeff if this reveal is somehow legit.

Vote Darth

J23 02-04-2011 03:20 PM

Well, with Manhattan voting for me, I guess I have to reveal. I'm Silk Spectre. The good news is that it's a provable role, unlike EF's claim. The bad news is that it will waste tonight's lynch to do so. If I'm the leading vote getter by 1 vote, there will be no lynch, I'll be revealed and lose the power.

I'd much prefer to kill a wolf tonight rather than wasting the lynch to add me to the COT at this point.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J23 (Post 2419802)
Forgot to do this earlier. With Manhattan alive atm, it's a lot better to be wrong lynching DV than Jeff if this reveal is somehow legit.

Vote Darth


Agreed. If we go with testing the lovers, we need to lynch DV, not Jeff. Jeff takes out DV no matter what, but DV does not take out Jeff if PF is alive (which he is and will be at the deadline tonight).

PackerFanatic 02-04-2011 03:25 PM

Well damn it...somebody is lying out there...all this revealing going on is making my head spin

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 03:30 PM

J23, you only have one vote. Don't you think it's a little soon to be revealing for that?

I definitely think someone's lying. I don't think The Jackal would have both Silk Spectres in the game.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 03:34 PM

Yep, strategy seems to be flood the game with fake reveals in order to get through today.

CR, I'm willing to listen to your gut on what roles are more/less likely for this game because I'm not well versed in this universe.

J23 02-04-2011 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2419810)
J23, you only have one vote. Don't you think it's a little soon to be revealing for that?

I definitely think someone's lying. I don't think The Jackal would have both Silk Spectres in the game.


I'm really not worried about being nightkilled with the Seer and Manhattan both still alive. I don't expect to be around much this evening, if at all, so I didn't see a downside to revealing really.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2419814)
Yep, strategy seems to be flood the game with fake reveals in order to get through today.

CR, I'm willing to listen to your gut on what roles are more/less likely for this game because I'm not well versed in this universe.


Well, I would be lying if I said I was really versed in it. I haven't read the comic. I saw the movie, and I followed along in the Watchmen threads to see where the breaks from the comic happened, and the general reaction of the hardcore comic book fans. By and large, the movie did a fair job of representing the comic, from what I recall. The main characters in the movie were The Comedian, Ozymandias, Night Owl II, Silk Spectre II, Dr. Manhattan and Rorschach.

Those are the six I would be surprised if the Jackal, presumeably a dyed-in-the-wool Watchmen fan, did not include.

Silk Spectre I is in the movie as well, but her character is really more of an offshoot to understanding some of the other main characters' histories.

As such, and once again, this is all rather meta-gamey, but I am more inclined to buy jeff's reveal over J23's right now.

Keep in mind, for all we know, both Silk Spectres could indeed be in the game.

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 03:50 PM

I've deliberately not read up on it because I may end up reading Watchmen when this is over. Have heard a lot of good stuff about it and I read a ton of comics when I was younger, but almost exclusively Marvel (see the two games I ran :) ).

Anyway, I feel like that is crimping my style a bit with sifting through the reveals, but given that we've had a couple of vanilla villager and I know I'm one as well I'm skeptical of everyone under pressure having roles.

But we're going to need to figure out where we want to go today or the wolves will be in good position to take the vote from us late. I'm trying not to force the action since there are others that are more cleared than me ... just lay out data for people to interpret and throw a hissy fit if I think stuff is clearly wrong ... you know, like voting for you (Chief Rum) yesterday.

jeff061 02-04-2011 03:53 PM

Packer are you going to be around or not? I need you to know something, but I don't really want to drop it now :D.

PackerFanatic 02-04-2011 03:56 PM

I will be around for another hour to hour and a half, after that I will be out past deadline.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 04:09 PM

I think we should choose between lynching DV and J23. I would prefer to lynch J23 over DV, because I actually lean toward jeff's reveal being correct, and not so much on J23.

The problem is, if we lynch J23, we give the wolves a great dilemma in choosing between the duke (and probably the game's most powerful player), the seer and taking out two at once (killing jeff).

So I would take out DV, and hope jeff's lying. If he's not, we have another cleared player anyway. I would assume the wolves will take me out then, although the cunning presence has probably lessened my value somewhat. But it's still probably greater at this point than PF with his duke ability being his only remaining ability (or so he's told us ;) ).

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 04:10 PM

In fact, I'll put my money where my mouth is.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

hoopsguy 02-04-2011 04:11 PM

Packer, I would encourage you to draft up a conditional duke order if you are not going to be around at the deadline.

Sure, it could end up screwing us but I'm worried that we don't have enough clarity in our voting block to subvert the wolves. So your power can make sure it is a villager decision today.

Keep it to yourself, make it conditional so if we do reach same conclusion you don't burn it needlessly, and don't say where you are going because that kills vote discussion in the thread.

Just my two cents on how you might maximize your role. Take it for whatever you feel it is worth.

The Jackal 02-04-2011 04:26 PM

Don't be surprised if results aren't up until close to midnight, especially if there are no vote counts! But since it's a long night phase.. More suspense!

jeff061 02-04-2011 04:27 PM

Quote:

Packer, I would encourage you to draft up a conditional duke order if you are not going to be around at the deadline.

I agree. So here is what I was going to say. Important for everyone if Packer doesn't send an order.

Darth is Laurie. I am Daniel. I swapped that during my reveal. I did this simply to draw the wolves to me during a night kill. Though at the time I was planning more for the future because I thought Manhattan had to be dead.

So basically. Please don't kill Darth :D.

The Jackal 02-04-2011 04:27 PM

I'll do everything I can to get it close to on time though.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419844)
I agree. So here is what I was going to say. Important for everyone if Packer doesn't send an order.

Darth is Laurie. I am Daniel. I swapped that during my reveal. I did this simply to draw the wolves to me during a night kill. Though at the time I was planning more for the future because I thought Manhattan had to be dead.

So basically. Please don't kill Darth :D.


At first, I was thinking, "Damn, man, you're killing us!" :)

My first thought was that you were trying to get us to kill the wrong person in the couple to accidentally kill both, as wolves. Then my brain officially kicked in and noted, well, if they were wolves, they aren't the couple, so that can't happen. ;)

Okay, I'll switch then. You had a good idea in doing the switch; sorry if we end up blowing that up.

Jeff, if you're on the up and up and we lynch you, my apologies in advance. I will no doubt be joining you in the "killed" thread Monday morning.

UNVOTE DATH VILUS
VOTE JEFF61

jeff061 02-04-2011 04:54 PM

Well I am quite confident they scanned one of us either last night or the night before. Were delayed because of you. And they started the roll on Darth, not the good guys :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by J23 (Post 2419802)
Forgot to do this earlier. With Manhattan alive atm, it's a lot better to be wrong lynching DV than Jeff if this reveal is somehow legit.

Vote Darth


Heh, thats' what you get when they were discussing my reveal vrs their scan results.

EagleFan 02-04-2011 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2419847)
At first, I was thinking, "Damn, man, you're killing us!" :)

My first thought was that you were trying to get us to kill the wrong person in the couple to accidentally kill both, as wolves. Then my brain officially kicked in and noted, well, if they were wolves, they aren't the couple, so that can't happen. ;)

Okay, I'll switch then. You had a good idea in doing the switch; sorry if we end up blowing that up.

Jeff, if you're on the up and up and we lynch you, my apologies in advance. I will no doubt be joining you in the "killed" thread Monday morning.

UNVOTE DATH VILUS
VOTE JEFF61


So you believe his change on the reveal but then vote for him? At this point I would guess that saldana is the brutal and J23 is one of the other wolves trying to steer us towards saldana for the two for one brutal.

EagleFan 02-04-2011 05:06 PM

unvote saldana

EagleFan 02-04-2011 05:07 PM

Crap, or with my theory jeff could be the brutal tryng to do the same thing, steer us to him.

My head is going to explode soon...

EagleFan 02-04-2011 05:08 PM

I must say this is gettnig rather interesting.

jeff061 02-04-2011 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2419852)
So you believe his change on the reveal but then vote for him? At this point I would guess that saldana is the brutal and J23 is one of the other wolves trying to steer us towards saldana for the two for one brutal.


Him, which adds a dilemma. I think it's pretty important we don't take the brutal tonight, as he can attack Darth.

Lynching the brutal may be disastrous. Takes out 2 villagers with him then a 3rd tonight. Something to keep in mind and makes EF's trustworthiness a more immediate factor.

jeff061 02-04-2011 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2419855)
Crap, or with my theory jeff could be the brutal tryng to do the same thing, steer us to him.

My head is going to explode soon...


Yeah, except if that was the case I would have just directed people at me from the beginning :).

EagleFan 02-04-2011 05:19 PM

Unfortunately I don't have much more time before heading out.

Thinking out loud:

If we lynch DV we are sitting at 4-3 after the night kill if jeff is telling the truth. We lose as soon as we lynch the brutal unless we lynch the brutal last.

If we lynch DV and jeff is lying we are sitting either 5-2 or 4-2 (depending on brutal) after the night kill and we then get jeff to make it 3-1 and we have one shot at getting the cunning.

If we can get J23 one vote ahead at the deadline and he is lying we are in the same position as the lynch DV with jeff lying approach.

If he survives and is revealed we are 5-3 after the night kill and we go through the jeff/DV lynch and get to a 2-1 game with the last vote being for all the marbles.

If he is lynched because of funny business we are at 4-3 after the night kill and need to get the brutal last.


I think the best percentage would be if we could get J23 to be up by one vote at the deadline but that is a risky proposition as someone could try to manipulate a late tie (though if we set it up now we can make it easy to see who is screwing around at the end).

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2419852)
So you believe his change on the reveal but then vote for him? At this point I would guess that saldana is the brutal and J23 is one of the other wolves trying to steer us towards saldana for the two for one brutal.


EF, I want to vote J23, because I think we might get a wolf there.

But with the cat out of the bag with jeff-Darth (if jeff's telling the truth), the wolves will have a way of killing both of them at once if we don't do it first to save one. That's why I am voting jeff. By us lynching jeff, Darth (with Dr. Manhattan still alive) will be free of being linked to jeff in death, and will also be a cleared player. If we don't lynch jeff, the wolves nightkill Darth and both he and Jeff go tonight.

And, yes, I do think the wolves would go for the duo kill instead of killing me--my scans help, but with us presuming the cunning is out there, I'm not as effective as I could be.

Of course, if it turns out jeff and Darth are actually wolves, we will instead lynch a wolf and then proceed to lynch the other one on Monday.

But this isn't open and shut. It's just the way I would go. I think as long as we make sure it's jeff and J23 we're looking at, we'll do something that benefits the village in the long run.

EagleFan 02-04-2011 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419859)
Yeah, except if that was the case I would have just directed people at me from the beginning :).


That is what you would have been doing with your reveal but you would have gotten a villager lynched first before we came after you by that reveal.

Chief Rum 02-04-2011 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419857)
Him, which adds a dilemma. I think it's pretty important we don't take the brutal tonight, as he can attack Darth.

Lynching the brutal may be disastrous. Takes out 2 villagers with him then a 3rd tonight. Something to keep in mind and makes EF's trustworthiness a more immediate factor.


Wow, that's a really great point. J23's reveal seemed oddly timed. I'll bet he is the brutal.

I really think we need to vote Jeff and get a cleared DV for Monday's vote.

jeff061 02-04-2011 05:24 PM

So probably my last post for a bit, I hope. Something to chew on.

My trust feeling on Eagle is pretty low. I personally feel he is trying to steer the vote to the brutal. Based on the fact that Eagle is unvoting and steering his people away from Saldana and to presumably J2D(that or potentially an innocent)......

I'm keeping my vote on Saldana.

This is my current layout.
J2D: Brutal
Eagle: Cunning
Saldana: Other type of wolf

jeff061 02-04-2011 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2419861)
EF, I want to vote J23, because I think we might get a wolf there.


And, yes, I do think the wolves would go for the duo kill instead of killing me--my scans help, but with us presuming the cunning is out there, I'm not as effective as I could be.



Well Darth would presumably be guarded. I think they'd know this and go for you.

jeff061 02-04-2011 05:26 PM

Then EF goes and posts before I could and changes things up :).

I know J2d and Saldana are wolves.

God damn eagle's got me all scatter brained though.

jeff061 02-04-2011 05:28 PM

No actually, EF's post seems to go along with my thinking and I agree with Chief. Like I said...scattered.


J2D: Brutal
Eagle: Cunning
Saldana: Other type of wolf

EagleFan 02-04-2011 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2419860)
Unfortunately I don't have much more time before heading out.

Thinking out loud:

If we lynch DV we are sitting at 4-3 after the night kill if jeff is telling the truth. We lose as soon as we lynch the brutal unless we lynch the brutal last.

If we lynch DV and jeff is lying we are sitting either 5-2 or 4-2 (depending on brutal) after the night kill and we then get jeff to make it 3-1 and we have one shot at getting the cunning.

If we can get J23 one vote ahead at the deadline and he is lying we are in the same position as the lynch DV with jeff lying approach.

If he survives and is revealed we are 5-3 after the night kill and we go through the jeff/DV lynch and get to a 2-1 game with the last vote being for all the marbles.

If he is lynched because of funny business we are at 4-3 after the night kill and need to get the brutal last.


I think the best percentage would be if we could get J23 to be up by one vote at the deadline but that is a risky proposition as someone could try to manipulate a late tie (though if we set it up now we can make it easy to see who is screwing around at the end).


Crap, I was including the brutal aspect into the J23 lynch as a wolf theory but forgot about the 2 for 1 brutal now with jeff/DV. If we had just stuck with going after one of either sal of J23 after jeff's reveal without forcing his hand to reveal again (if he is not lying) then we would have been in a better position.

EagleFan 02-04-2011 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061 (Post 2419869)
No actually, EF's post seems to go along with my thinking and I agree with Chief. Like I said...scattered.


J2D: Brutal
Eagle: Cunning
Saldana: Other type of wolf


Very wrong about me, and now making me wonder about you.


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