Yeah, watching the virus and paying attention does wonders. Im still worried about my FIL who has respiratory issues and is near 70. I imagine if he gets it he wont make it out.

Its an interesting virus. Seems to be like a cold which most younger peoples immune systems are able to cope with.

So is this the end of humanity as reddit wants me to believe? I do really hope it's either seasonal or USA mitigates it better than China in the early stages. I tend to really get anxiety over this stuff.

CNBC is losing their minds.

Rick Santelli from CNBC suggests the world would be a better place if we just gave #covid19 to everyone and “got it over with” so the markets can resume rising.

Rick is 63 years old.

pic.twitter.com/wJ2RhVfnqc

— Justin (@Trumpery45) March 5, 2020

Ya, the 3.4% is just 90,869 reported cases divided by reported 3,112 deaths (as of Tuesday).

By this rationale, the U.S. mortality rate was around 11% at the same time. (9 out of 80 through Tuesday, but now we're at something like 12 out of 223 so it's gone down already.)

The "real" mortality rate has to be way, way below both of those numbers. Otherwise China would have been decimated (as in REALLY decimated), and reports are they've stabilized and industry is starting to come back gradually. And the death rate of un-reported cases would have to be higher than the death rate of reported cases. Which doesn't seem possible.

I Lived Through SARS and Reported on Ebola. These Are the Questions We Should Be Asking About Coronavirus. — ProPublica

Apparently 80% of even the reported cases got better without any particular medical intervention. Not even counting the people who get better on their own and never seek medical care.

https://www.cnsnews.com/article/nati...eously-recover

Meanwhile at least two people from my office are home with a cough and fever. I don't know if they're going into get treated, or if there's even testing available around here, but, I could understand people just preferring to wait it out at home rather than become a part of a national and world news story unless things get too bad. Americans are good at avoiding the doctor.

My company is cancelling all in-person meetings of 20 or more, and forcing people who have traveled internationally to stay home for 14 days (with pay) after coming home to make sure they aren't showing any symptoms before they return to work.

We're similar except (strangely) everyone is also being asked to work from home if they are able to.

Woohoo, we have our annual sales convention starting this weekend in Nashville! 3,000 people with an average age of about 54 flying to a centralized location and socializing... I can't wait. Especially since I'm in our registration booth checking in all these people for the first day and a half... FML.

Use hand sanitizer after every handshake and spray every business card.

Don't forget to lysol wipe every door handle and elevator buttons before use. And of course, after you wash your hands, and close the faucet, lysol wipe your hands again.

That's just insane RainMaker. I suspect that's the last time we see him on CNBC

First two cases in Colorado. Took a tourist who had been in Italy to get that testing so I'm sure there are more.

Sounds like they are testing 5 in St Louis county.

I hope this is just a test to scare people into preparedness for when the real virus comes to wipe us all out.

Seems like a lot of these new cases are coming fro Italy?

It is good to know that price gouging doesn’t just happen with water. $9.99 for a 1 ounce bottle of Purell, $499 for a case of 12 8-oz bottles. Both on Amazon.

No, but it's going to cause a lot of disruption over the next several months.

And it will be worse here in the US than it should be because the WH is more concerned with PR than healthcare right now.

Fauci on CNN townhall on Coronavirus. He’s clearing his throat quite a bit and looks under the weather.

Says WHO is purely arithmetic formula. He said when you do modeling with some assumptions it’s lower. Basically won’t know until more US testing. My guess is the mortality is lower than the WHO estimates.

In the U.S. if mortality is 1% that means there are 1400 cases.

We don't know because we aren't testing anyone.

South Korea probably provides the best data we'll see for awhile. They are more advanced when it comes to testing (I believe they are doing 10,000 a day) and have a better health care system. We'll likely see what the rate is under the best conditions soon.

Right now it shows (in South Korea):

Confirmed: 6,284
Deaths: 40
Recovered: 135

“We closed it down. We stopped it.” -Trump this morning.

That won’t age well.

It won't matter. He will claim he never said it and his followers will lap it up.

My alma mater closing classes until end of the quarter.

Starting Monday, March 9, classes at UW campuses will no longer be meeting in person thru the end of winter quarter March 20. Campuses will remain OPEN. This action is to support social-distancing steps the region is taking to fight #COVID19. More here: https://t.co/Gr0eGivlWG

— University of Washington (@UW) March 6, 2020

My work is pretty much decimated now by illness, most I've seen in the 12 years I've been here. 2 of my 3 supervisors out, and about half of 6 support staff I have dealings with are out.

Could be a coincidence. Or it could be running through here now. Business as usual otherwise though, things are moved around and delayed like is done in a bad flu season. The role and overall duties of the office haven't been impacted. (though it's not encouraged in normal times, we can do most of our work from home so I think there will be a lot more of that going forward).

One of the dudes that has a confirmed case of the 'Rona is a concessionaire for the Seattle XFL team.

At this point, we need to plan on everyone getting it eventually and just trying to slow the spread so our health-care infrastructure isn't overwhelmed. Everyone getting at once would be apocalyptic.

My employer (Capital One) is asking all NoVa based employees to work at home on Monday so they can stress-test the VPN in the event the decision is made to close all offices and branches and make the necessary upgrades.

Quad-Dola -

This is my first quad dola.

JP Morgan did it a couple days ago I believe.

We are having everyone work from home today as a test as well.

Congratulations! :party:

I was surprised when I read the US has less than one million staffed hospital beds. If there's a big hit all at once we'll be overwhelmed.

The hospital I work out apparently hasn't had access to test kits but is expecting enough to start testing staff soon. The current plan is for staff to voluntarily test and anyone that tests positive will be sent him with paid leave.

Absolutely crazy that test kits have been so limited that a hospital less than hour from Seattle hadn't received any.

Another 11 cases in NY with @4000 in precautionary quarantine(whatever that means).

My local hospital doesn't have tests yet despite a case locally. They are just telling people to self-quarantine if they think they have it.

She'd like to wash her hands of the matter, but...

We have no symptoms of it at all, just colds, but my daughter licked a handrail at Disneyland last week. And I am a teacher. I'm hoping my immune system can fight off most things

I admit I LOLed at this.

We did a disney cruise and my son has this tic where he chews his fingers to the bone. I constantly told him not to do it. Come Friday, luckily last day of the trip, he starts puking everywhere. He blamed it on the water he swallowed on the Aquaduck water slide.

The plus side was the next day customs leaving the ship apparently knew what was up because they moved us to the very front of the line. I'm guessing they didn't want a mess to clean up.

Mine licked an escalator rail in an airport at the beginning of spring break. Three days later, fever and puking. I don't think there's any other expected outcome.

This should work well in a state with all the old people.

Also one of the hottest and most humid. Just sayin...

Trump at the CDC.

AZAR tries to explain that more tests are coming, but Trump waves him off to jump in.

TRUMP: “Anybody that needs a test gets a test…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.” pic.twitter.com/A3hgYOJLUt

— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) March 6, 2020

Here's Trump rambling at length about how smart he is and how well he understands public health pic.twitter.com/1Co6MaRkzl

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 6, 2020

The whole thing was pretty sick. Wearing a campaign hat, having the CDC guy say the most important thing is praising Trump and then blatantly lying to the public about the threat and tests.

Also shouldn't everyone have been tested on this ship? Especially since such a high number of the tests they gave came back positive?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...pence-n1151936

It seems an open question as to whether the CDC has an extra 3 or 4 thousand tests.

dola

Two cases now in people that were at the AIPAC conference.

I really hope testing rolls out next week. I don't want to see millions of Americans dead. My state, Illinois, seems to have said screw it and are doing their own testing. Though, I don't know if they're testing outside of Chicago.

Connecticut now joins the list of infected states with a confirmed case in Danbury.


Edit: actually they only work in 2 hospitals in CT, but are a NY resident.

KY officially as well.

An Update on SXSW 2020. Please read our full statement here: https://t.co/P56nF8KFmE pic.twitter.com/ouJPKM9GNy

— SXSW (@sxsw) March 6, 2020

And MN, OK, and NE.

Seems fairly obvious that this is already here and widespread which seems to be nothing but a good thing. Not to say Trump is doing anything right but we arent seeing 20 year olds dropping dead in the streets and while maybe 70-80 year olds have been dying from this apparently their loved ones must not have been to shocked of their death to investigate whether it was coronavirus.

2 in SC now

Rate of spread is important not just for deaths from this virus, but also because hospitals can get overwhelmed which will cause problems for anyone with a serious health problem.

I don't like this slow burn.

We know it's here but we don't yet know the extent due to lack to test kits. We saw this in China a month ago (and earlier) and government + private sector should have mobilized and be much more prepared. I get hiccups and confusion here and there, but lack of testing kits is a big miss.

Over the next 4-8 weeks (or until we get good news on vaccine trials)

• more testing that shows many more infected; but do think the elderly are the most vulnerable and younger people without pre-existing don't have to worry as much
• school quarantines, remote work
• market uncertainty and wild swings; theme parks, airlines & hospitality taking more hits
• ... and because I'm feeling pessimistic this morning, a recession for US and a near/recession for China

In-laws called and said they won't be coming over for daughter's graduation in mid-May. Perfectly understandable.

Looks like May-June for results of vaccines.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

That looks like treatments rather than vaccines for that timeline.

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:

96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths

vs flu in 2019:

35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths pic.twitter.com/GDAADwmg4n

— Seth Bannon ��‍�� (@sethbannon) March 7, 2020

I will believe it when I see it. Those are some pretty bold numbers. It doesn't seem like the world numbers (of what we know) support those estimates either.

Yeah believe me I want our hospitals and government to prepare for the worst and don't mind them erring on the side of extreme caution but China's numbers don't support this at all. And my guess is there are a lot of Chinese, Italians, and now Americans that don't even know they have the virus skewing those death rate numbers way off.

More like best "worst case" guess.

If those nos. really happen in 2 months, it will overwhelm the system.

At least one person at CPAC has tested positive.

Which means the Insurance companies, Big pharma and hospitals will be jacking up prices just because they can.

CPAC attendee shook hands with Matt Schlapp who then shook hands with Trump.

All the old people running or looking to run the country are at high risk.

Next tweet from trump will be about how he got the Corona virus, was treated perfectly, and recovered already and is in perfect health, because he's so strong and always wins.

The senior leaders for the company my wife works for has a call tomorrow at noon, on a Sunday, to update their policy. She is pretty sure they are suspending all travel.

Israel announced a 14 day mandatory quarantine for anyone traveling from WA, CA or NY.

Well I'm sure glad that it's the media taking all the blame for all this. I mean, how powerful is the media that entire countries are running in fear because of them.

I referenced it a while back but throwing it back out because I would love some thoughts.

We have a trip to Cancun planned, leaving 2 weeks from today. Without our kids. A few couples going for ones 50th.

I am becoming very nervous about it. I have zero concerns about getting sick. I am far more concerned with getting stuck in Mexico or quarantined on the way back in to the country for several weeks by an inept government. In laws watching them. My MIL had a heart transplant 11 years ago, no way she survives if it hits.

We have been keeping a close eye and can cancel up to 4 days before with a small fee. I just don't know. I don't want to disappoint my friends, but I am really thinking about bailing.

Any time you get on a plane right now you're running the risk of a quarantine.

1st case in Missouri is in St. Louis county. A girl in her 20s that was studying abroad in Italy has it. She and her parents have self quarantined herself with her parents.

One man and one example of how quickly the CV can spread.

Coronavirus: Concern over New Rochelle case stretches to Washington D.C.

I get it. Crew members aren't really subject to the same restrictions most places, so I'm perhaps a bit more jaded than Joe Public, but I get it.



My Mom just got back from a cruise to the Bahamas and Mexico. She was a bit worried, but the whole thing ran perfectly.



Of course, I'm commuting to work tomorrow and the flight is full, because that just seems like the way that things go, even in the midst of whatever this is.

NJ has a population of 8.88 million. 29 people have been tested. Totally contained.

Honest question: how do quarantines help at this point, with this specific virus? With the huge asymptomatic period and the slowness in which the world has reacted to this point, isn't it too late? It's clearly everywhere, and by the time a person is discovered to have it and quarantined (or a region, like in Italy) they have been out and about spreading it for 2 weeks already.

I think they are encouraging people who have been in contact with someone who has it to self quarantine regardless of symptoms. Will never work here, people are way too selfish and our government doing everything they can to try and save their own asses just makes it worse.

At this point I am resigned to likely getting it and hoping the blood condition I have doesn't kill me.

The quarantines are to slow down the infections so it does not overload the health system. Yeah, I'm resigned to getting it catching it also.

Went grocery shopping this morning. Plenty of stuff (and toilet paper). No hand sanitizers though and know that n95 masks were no where to be found last week.

All in all, GA is taking it pretty well. Not sure what the reality on the ground is for Washington folks though.


GA numbers are going up!

BREAKING: Grand Princess cruise passengers to be quarantined in Cobb

I think Lathum hit it on the head and unfortunately for some members of the board the answer isn't Trump. We are fucking selfish and Americans are more entitled than anyone. We spend half this thread bitching about Trump but then go on and discuss about how we are young and can get great travel deals. Outside of this thread what is our biggest fear about Trump? We don't want him to be an authoritarian dictator. Where would quarantines work the most effectively? Authoritarian places like China.

One side will blame it on the "red state" people who say I can do what I want I am an American. The other side will blame it on the "blue state" lawyers who say I can do what I want I am an American and you want to restrict my travel I will sue.

Trump is a convenient punching bag but he isn't forcing us to attend sporting events, attend political rallies, go out to eat in crowded restaurants, or to find cheap travel deals. Sure sucks though to think that it might be us that are the problem and not the central government not being Authoritarian enough.

I think our country as a whole has the attitude "well that won't happen to me!" Look at mass shootings, terrorism, etc...we see it all the time but it is on that little box in the living room happening to others so we don't do much about it except maybe bitch on social media.

It will be interesting to see what happens if and when people start catching this thing and if older loved ones start dying. Will peoples collective attitudes change about it? It will likely be too late by then.

I think most Americans will try to do as authorities ask if they feel like the authorities are being honest. Right now, that's the big problem. We can handle a lot of accommodations if we know the threat, but testing is way behind and the authorities aren't being transparent.

Here's Surgeon General Jerome Adams telling Jake Tapper that President Trump "sleeps less than I do and he's healthier than what I am." �� pic.twitter.com/bDpQWWAgUU

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 8, 2020

The cure for Covid-19 will be developed from the blood of our God-king.

Me, too. I am at high-risk, but I know that there is little I can do to prevent exposure if it spreads as rapidly as it seems. I work in the public, but not as close to people as my wife and daughter (both work in eye doctor's offices).

20 minutes ago, I told my wife that a China-like quarantine would be hard to implement in the US because people believe pretty deeply in their personal freedom. I don’t really think it’s selfishness as much as it is culture.

Re: all the political stuff, honestly all anyone should want is for our government to be open and transparent about what’s going on, for them to provide states with the resources they need, and to provide us with the best possible advice based on medical professionals and infectious disease experts. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. I’m not confident that’s what we’re going to get based on the initial response, but hopefully there’s still time to mitigate this as best we can.

I’m not personally concerned about contracting the virus, I’m reasonably healthy as are the rest of my immediate family, but I’m starting to get worried about the health care system getting overwhelmed by this and what that would mean for treating other medical issues that occur, along with other community problems (supply disruptions and the like).

Ok, so it's just about slowing it in order to not flood the medical systems, that makes more sense I suppose.


I hope we are learning a lot about how unprepared our society currently is and can apply some of that knowledge whenever the next pandemic hits, because someday it won't be 2% and only elderly, and I'd like to feel we can do more than just slow it down.

Don't think WHO has called this a pandemic yet. I wonder what the deal is, IMO it makes WHO lose some credibility. I don't think it will change how countries respond (seems like quarantines are the go-to thing now).

My wife’s company just told senior leaders no travel for the foreseeable future.

The local authorities on my area, after the 1st case, are saying only prolonged interaction with an affected person could lead to infection. He ws saying 20 minutes of conversation and yes, you are likely to get it. Passing someone in the store with it and you are okay.

I'd probably wait till the deadline and cancel if things haven't reversed. You're probably safe but it would really suck to be in another country if shit hits the fan. Especially a country that's not primarily white.

My dad is 87, and takes medication to control an irregular heartbeat, so is obviously very keen to know as much as possible about this.

He was in hospital just for a check last week, and a nurse told him pretty much the same thing (the only difference being she said 15 minutes), and they were on the clock to avoid exposing themselves to people beyond that 15 minute period wherever possible.

We have the highest incarceration rate in the world. Turned over our civil rights after 9/11. Applauded as part of Boston was turned into a police state following a terrorist attack.

Not sure what culture you're talking about but most folks will follow orders here and be labeled un-American if they don't.

So i was reacting to this ridiculous claim. And the airlines agree that this is stupid.

We had dinner tonight with friends, one of whom is a pulmonologist. He's done as much independent research as he has been able to above and beyond the guidance from CDC/WHO/etc. He's definitely extremely concerned. Probably the most chilling thing he said is that hospitals could be overwhelmed to the point of "this patient needs to be on a life support system, but all of them are currently in use and we can't get any more."

I don't have to travel, so I'm choosing not to for a while. Call it ridiculous if you'd like. It's a small chance, but with a daughter at home it's a chance I'm not willing to take.

Im hoping the government really kicks the response in gear this week in some way. We gotta mitigate this thing somehow

My sometimes morbid thought process can't seem to avoid this, that it is likely a when, not if. We're going to be having conversations with friends, social groups, whatever, about some of our parents dying from this. The only idea in my mind is how soon, and how frequent it might become.

Rep. Gosar and three staff in self-quarantine because of the CPAC case.

Kudos to them and Cruz for doing the right thing.

Is your daughter 70 with respiratory issues? If not, you are being ridiculous.

I'm with you. Honestly I feel like this is what would have happened to SARs etc with 24-7 media and all the social media. I really think they are miscalculating a lot of people who dont ever go to the doctor or report their symptoms to anyone.

With that said the difference between 2004 panerd and 2020 panerd is three children who would have a slight chance of losing one of their parents and really scary numbers for losing their 78 year old grandparents. So why not take extra precautions and stay informed?

My friends and I used to stay in a seedy motel for a Mizzou home games and paid like $40 instead of $250+. Nobody ever messed with us and it's pretty likely nobody ever would but as I got older I fjust started to figure you know it's just not worth it.

I have a flight on Allegiant at the end of the month. They are offering free cancellations and change of plans.

But they made sure you knew they are a domestic only airline with only non stop flights.

Taking lysole wipes anyway.

What if the 2-3% number is actually correct? In a group of adult friends of like 20 you really like the close to 50/50 chance one of them goes to the ICU or dies?

The thing that pisses me off most about this whole thing is how people on social media think they have a right to tell people what level of concern is justified.

Respectfully, I had to do an emergency backfill for a co-worker on a project because his 2 year old child died of the flu. I can't imagine the pain ...

I personally would not take a chance with my child.

When has this administration ever done the right thing?

all the grown ups checked out a long time ago. I think it is more likely we start seeing high level CDC, etc...employees resigning over the handling of this.