I'd expect more stay-at-homes to be coming this weekend. Next week figures to one where most hospitals start getting slammed

I am not religious, but the Pope giving Blessings on the empty square gives me the shills ...

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/image/sz...8?v=1585336148


And since it is important not to loose sight of small successes and signs of hope:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/u...-kindness.html

just passed 100k cases in the US

bars

The small story at the bottom shows the huge issues hospitals face. Ideally every admission (broken foot, stroke whatever) would need to be tested and treated as if he had it until the result is ready. And even after, there cant be personnel overlap ideally and especially with areas like oncology etc.

Also, another reason why those fast-tests or antibody tests better be close to 100% accurate.

With North Carolina moving to stay at home, that leaves 23 states that have not (by my count), with 4 states not even having social distancing in place. The current trajectories for US cases has them doubling every 2-3 days.

Not to pick on Cartman, but what is the point of these case numbers? We all know the number of people with the virus in the US is well over a million, right? If tomorrow, NY decides not to test that many people (or tests the wrong people) and they only increase by 500 - are we all going to feel better?

The only things that matter at this point are deaths related to it (as best as we can tie them) and the hospitalization rate. If we got an influx of tests and see the US numbers increase to 250K tomorrow - but don't see a non-proportionate spike in deaths or high hospital rates - who cares. If, instead, we only see an increase of 100 tomorrow but the hospitals are overrun and the numbers of deaths associated goes up 3,000, that would really worry me.

It's just funny to me how these numbers are overtaking everyone's focus when they are almost insignificant. It's like a dark room full of 100 potential alcoholics and we shine a flashlight on 4 guys. If only one is drinking, we think we are solving alcoholism and rejoice! If three are drinking, we think the wold world is going to have massive liver issues and panic. Until we can massively increase the testing rate (which I'm not sure is even feasible), all these numbers aren't very indicative of what's really going on.

Our governor refuses to issue the stay at home order.

He just tells people to social distance. He is about personal responsibility. And he said the mayors of the cities are doing a good job.
Meanwhile the cases are skyrocketing.

And as an example of why this is dumb. My SIL, BIL and a friend traveled from their small town in south central MO to Illinoi and then to St Charles to help her move.

Yeah, good call governor.

I'm with Arles on this one.

Number of ICU beds/ventilators available vs. number of beds/ventilators occupied by COVID patients is what matters at this point. Based on what NY stated yesterday, the COVID patients are in these beds for a significant amount of time compared to what they see from non-COVID patients. (I don't recall the exact number off the top of my head).

Same thing in Georgia, governor had a worthless town hall the other night and the director of health had no idea how many respirators we had or needed. Meanwhile the state is 7th in deaths.

Positives/Test would also be usefull. Not perfect (tests arent distributed equally each day between likely/less likely cases), but that number going down or at least not ul would be sth that is telling.

Italy f.e. Between 5 and 6k new positives since March 19th but Tests have gone from 15-20k to 25 to now 33 yesterday and today. Meaning the new infections can actually be presumed to be down considerable, especially if seen on a curve (how much it goes in terms of % day to day)

Same is happening in Germany right now as capacity is increased in labs massively (and they were high anyway).

I don't think we know the number is well over a million. We know that we don't know what the real number is, and that's about it. But on the general point, I've definitely been in agreement for a while now. I think it's really just media-driven; gives them something to report, which leads to people talking about it, etc.

'We just don't know' is hard to build a narrative around.

Interesting side note, look at the tiny island nation Faroe Islands, about 50k inhabitants:

Corona Ã* Føroyum

Their 144 cases are coming out to twice the per-capita for Italy. And consider their remoteness and how much more unlikely it was for it to get there in numbers via travellers and commuters.

But their 3000 tests means 1) only 4.5% of tests have been positive (22 for Italy) and 2) that they have are at 6,5% tests per inhabitant (Italy 0,6%). So in essence more tests per capita and less positive per total test. But the number of 'cases' is high for how tiny the populus is.

Now, not every tests means a person (health care workers and quarantined get multiples) but it shows you why tests/cases have to be loookes at together.

The comment about positive test rate is making feel ok right now. In PA where they have been reporting bout it has stayed around 10% this whole time, so the increase in cases in just a resulting of testing.

Am I wrong to say that those people are practicing personal responsibility but not social responsibility?

Florida's governor is taking an interesting tactic. He has also refused to issue a shelter in place order but he is fine with local officials doing it.

So far, the counties that include Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Gainesville, Orlando, and the state capital Tallahassee have all established some sort of shelter in place order.

He started off by saying he saw how people were not listening to the suggested shelter in place orders in other places so why would he do the same here. The numbers rose

He then said most of the cases were pocketed in certain areas of the state and he did not want to stop someone from working in one part of the state that did not have any issues. The numbers rose.

He then said New Yorkers who ran away from the shelter in place order up there to fly down here were driving the numbers up. He asked those New Yorkers to self quarantine for 14 days. And the numbers rose.

Now he has said that New Orleans residents are running away from there and driving to Florida and that is driving the numbers up. So he is going to set up a checkpoint or checkpoints on I-10 so that the highway patrol can let them know they need to self quarantine for 14 days. Not sure if he is setting up checkpoints on the other roads that lead into Florida or just I-10.

Meanwhile, he has also acknowledge that, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission, people continue to “violate social-distancing requirements as people tie boats together and have group parties.” I am sure what the penalties are for not following the requirements.

I guess we shall see where the numbers go from here.

Coronavirus: How do 3 million newly unemployed people get health care? - Vox

It still boggles my mind healthcare is such an issue in a country as rich as the US


The US also seems at even more risk of people dying with those ominous pre-existing conditions in combination with Covid19 because a lot will have them undiagnosed or not properly managed due to costs.

Lancaster teen whose death was initially tied to COVID-19 died after being denied treatment at care center: Mayor | KTLA

Also imagine how many people who will not go to a doctor to get tested because they feel they can't afford it and will spread it to others. It's not just hurting people without it, it causes people to spread it easier to others.

Oh one more thing because, Florida. A hospital in Hialeah is/was charging $150 per test. The federal government has said the tests are free.

Who's up for some 4 on 4 then?

Abbott is supposed to start shipping 50k tests a day next week that provide a positive response in 5 minutes and a negative in 13 minutes.

If you take one of these tests, how would you feel at the 6 minute mark?

HEY ABBOTT!!!!

"Who's up first?"

"Yes he is"

"If you start that routine up, I'll smack you."

edit: "So Who's tested first, what's in quarantine and I don't know's in ICU???" "Exactly!"

So China has 3-4x more people than the USA. But we have passed them a little over a month into this mess while they showed massive improvement about 6 weeks after it first struck. What exactly worked for them that is slowing it down? I keep hoping in a couple weeks we will see that same progress but not feeling overly optimistic right now.

Assuming you believe the numbers from China, which is a big assumption, it boils down to culture.

Freedom and sense of entitlement are a horrible combination.

They were putting folks in complete lockdown. (one person who had grandparents over there actually said no one was able to leave their house, but each block had a runner who would get them groceries and stuff)

Well. They seem to be opening their business back up

China's Kind of Back to Work, but the Coronavirus Economic Recovery Will Be Ugly

The consumer arent buying yet....but its a start....

We are sitting around trying to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

At least 100 inmates and 80 COs at Rikers are confirmed positive.

Unfortunately there will always be people looking to make mischief wherever and whenever. There are a lot of different ways to prevent this from happening with the most basic one being to add a password to your meeting.

Best Practices for Securing Your Virtual ClassroomÂ* - Zoom Blog

Full disclosure I work at Zoom.

One thing that Kirk Herbstreit mentioned is that he'd be shocked if the NFL and college football opened up normally with fans this fall. I can understand why (The Atalanta-Valencia game is thought to have spread COVID-19 to up to 40,000 fans).

Do we really want gatherings of 100,000 plus people while there's still not a vaccine for it?

(I think there will be fans, at least at the beginning.. )

It was either CNN or MSNBC, they interviewed a former head of (something relevant). The guy said he was optimistic there would be therapeutics available to treat the virus by this summer and listed out some stuff in development.

I don't think we have to have a vaccine, we need treatment for the symptoms.

I think a lot of that depends on how much summer changes things. It could be that we get pounded but then by late May it's largely gone, returning in the fall. Football would be a nightmare scenario for that, and I feel compelled to mention again that the fall outbreak in 1918 killed more than the one in the spring because people assumed it was no longer a threat and stopped being careful. And who knows what drugs will be approved as therapeutic/preventative by then and how much of an impact that has.

Dola,


We kind of posted about the same thing, but I think we do need to have a vaccine. Ofc it depends on how effective the symptoms treatments really are, but they'd have to be awfully darned impressive by any relative comparison, to the point of keeping most people who have to go to the hospital now out of that scenario. I'll be surprised if any are that good at helping people breathe when the virus screws over their lungs, but I would be extremely happy to be wrong.

What works for them is having a totalitarian government who is using the military and drone technology to enforce quarantines. Somehow, I don't think that methodology would be well received by our citizens.

OMG New York up to like 46,000 infected :(

As has been pointed out, there are reasons to be skeptical about information coming out of China for how well they have controlled things.

Urns in Wuhan far exceed death toll, raising more questions about China’s tally – Shanghaiist

They had apparently opened cinemas 10 days ago, but are now closing them in the whole country for an indefinite period of time.

Having said that, they also tested a lot of people, built hospitals quickly to add capacity, and aggressively enforced quarantines, even to the point of bolting some people in their apartments.

In a worrying sign of what is likely to come, the ExCel Arena in London is being turned into a temporary 4000 bed hospital, the Municipality Stadium in Wales into a 2000 bed hospital, and the Manchester Arena and NEC in Birmingham on standby to do the same (I think it was 3000 and 2000 beds respectively)

It looks like we are about to be hit hard :(

Kroger converts store to pickup-only service | Grocery Dive

Happening now. My wife, who knows more about this stuff than anyone, her entire business is grocery and pharmacy, says it went really well.

Kroger pick up couldn't fill 35% (about $80 worth) of our order from yesterday. My wife ended up going in anyway and was able to pick up a lot of what they ended up not being able to fill, plus more.



Pickup is a great concept, but we've had plenty of problems with it. From kids now knowing the difference between a yam and a sweet potato to not knowing where to find a product. I can't tell you how many times I went in and grabbed the "item we don't have" off the shelves to head home. You take what you get a lot of the time.

I would rather take an odd substitution then go in to the store. For some strange reason the thought of going in to a grocery store horrifies me.

I know your situation is different due to your wifes dietary needs so that would complicate things.

That's just it. There were no subs. Usually there's like 4 items to sub or they are out of. This was 5 full pages of paper. They were out and didn't sub anything. Things like fruit, veggies, vegan products only she can eat, soap, etc. Across the board. She spends hours planning the menus and shopping list. So that much gone is critical.

Remember when I said that if the airlines needed to they could be back up and running in a couple weeks.


Yeah, that ship sailed now. They are all committing to the long run now. So things are getting scaled back and commitments to employees are now bearing an expense that will need months to come to fruition. So it's not going to be happening fast now. Buckle up.

We were able to order produce from a local wholesaler who delivered. Maybe look for something like that. We have to order a large amount so 4 families went in together and I divided it up and left it on my porch. . .

My chest and back in my lung area started hurting a bit in the last couple hours. I have no cough, but I could feel stuff a couple times. I have been holding my breath for the last couple weeks, just as a baseline. Dont seem to have lost any breath of my baseline. My daughter has a phlegmy cough. Hoping Im just getting something from her.
No fever, no cough. But damn, Im a little worried right now.

I'm all about social distancing and doing what I can, but I'd drive all the way across town to the store that lets me pick my own meat before I let someone choose it. Definitely any store in our semi-proximity that did this as the only option would lose some business.

I'm glad they are trying it and I hope it works out and can be expanded, but in terms of the large scale I'll definitely believe it when I see it. I have a brother who has worked at a local store of a different chain for years, and I've seen & heard nothing that would indicate this is actually feasible. Even if it only works in isolates spots though, still better than nothing.


:(

But there's no way he could have learned anything talking to the four living ex-Presidents.

This is the message my colleague sent us all (he was confirmed as having CV-19), which I think is worth sharing