To double check - there are currently zero prepared plans, correct?

Correct

Not really. I was just wandering around trying not to fall asleep.

And 10% for both to be Spawn.

:)

16 versus 9 seems like really flimsy ground to base any kind of determination when saldana brought back 33 and this game has a heavy RNG element. Not that that was the crux of your argument, at all.

Well I've had two successful exploring missions and one not-so-hot but better than hoops mining mission. So I'd say that's at least something in my favor. But beyond that it is as others have said, a case of he said / she said.

Yeah, I think so.

It wasn't the crux of my argument, but I believe I saw multiple people say they would base their vote on it.

The fact that LSG was on Hoops' mission also plays into the result though.

I have to say, anyone who bases their decision on the hoops vs. Telle mining result I will consider to have made their decision based off flipping a coin and will view them accordingly.

I was exhausted yesterday and slept lsat night, I had 1 of the 5 beds. Didn't sleep well, but well enough to remove the exhaustion tag.

Just so it doesn't get lost in the shuffle... People with outstanding AP for today:

Alan T - 3 AP
Danny - 1 AP
Path - 1 AP
Bullet - 1 AP
Jackal - 1 AP
oliegirl - 1 AP
Pass - 1 AP
Mrs.Schmidty - 1 AP (No action available)

Right. Since you and PackerFanatic were exhausted Night 1, you guys are probably not the spawn that doesn't get exhausted. That leaves claphamsa, The Jackal, LoneStarGirl, and Chubby.

Here's my breakdown of hoops vs Telle

Known Spawn odds

Telle - 25% as of when hoops tailed here (staring 15% + 10% from first mission). 35% of Spawn at the moment, 45% of Spawnling+ at the moment

Hoops - 15% starting odds, 25% at Spawnling+

Expeditions

Telle - 2 successful explorations. 16 Crys in today's mission, with the less trusted scientist (figuring Packer is less trusted than LSG, though close if any difference)

Hoops - 1 sub-par mission of 9 Crys

Really, the Expedition weight for me isn't heavy. Worth noting.



Now, for me, this whole thing boils down to gains. I bring it back to how would hoops act in each case, Survivor vs Spawn.

In the case of Survivor, I don't see hoops who we generally all believe is a great villager to come after me (a vital role at the moment it happened) with little more than a gut feeling, come after Render (who happens to be the person above him on the food chain), come after Danny (also an Engineer) and now Telle (an officer). I don't see him making 4 pretty big flails when, if he's a Survivor, hoops knows that he just has to wait patiently for an eventual path scan to clear him. I don't think he plays it that agressively.

Now, in the case of hoops as Spawn. I think he absolutely plays it agressively. I think he knows he's going to get scanned, and I think if he dies via the scan, that's ok to him since it at the moment while we can get a new doctor, we can't verify the cleanliness of them. I think hoops came AWFUL close to getting lynched yesterday. I think he takes his shot here with Telle, trumps up a story in a manner that no matter her response he can make it appear as though she's lying. He gets himself into a 1-on-1 situation knowing there are 3 outcomes

A) He gets scanned, which he's probably ok with (better than lynched)
B) He wins the 1-on-1, takes out an officer before he goes
C) He gets lynched, which was a plausible possibility going into today anyhow.

Catching up. I'm waiting for something specific before scanning. I'll send a PM to Barkeep.

Can't say I'm surprised clap and Jackal could be spawn. I know this is a chunk of jamming a round peg into an already surmised theory but that clap pinging of me combined with hoops just reeked of two wolves in conjunction and Jackal, being someone who can be promoted to doctor and being spawn would aid in the benefit to hoops getting scanned and taking out our present doctor.

Not much, but personally I try to put myself into the minds of the bad guys and figure out what they are thinking. Admiteddly some out there thinking to everyone else, but I like to note them (early and often baby!)

Pretty compelling. But hoops has every reason to be aggressive as a villager, too - he'll still get cleared eventually, and he has to be aggressive because the entire darn ship DOESN'T ACTUALLY WANT TO DO ANYTHING. He's generally always probing, stirring up different people -- it's how he plays. And how you might act in each situation does not equate to how he might act, because he generally always seems like a wolf early on because he's the only person actually suggesting someone else is a wolf.

Forget that. I'd rather kill someone that isn't offering any real suggestions about what we should do -- the ultimate, underlying strategy for me is to lynch the quiet people, because they're the ones that don't have to defend themselves. I'm not going to lynch hoops just for doing what he does.

This is sort of my thinking too. The other scenario is that they're both Spawn and Hoops knows that they are both likely lost causes. Hoops because of yesterday and because he is always a likely early scan candidate. Telle because she's gone out on the most away missions and has the biggest chance of being a convert.

So maybe Hoops figures he can become trusted by "outing" a spawn today and cruising into a CoT.

This is fairly far-fetched, I suppose, but not out of the realm of posssibility.

I don't know. I think I have a pretty good read on wolf-hoops. We were both wolves a couple games back and I saw how he played it and called him on the next game when he was a wolf as well.

I think giving him a pass at this crucial of a juncture because he posts a lot, something he'd do in any game, is a mistake.

So If I read things right we have the following people cleared, for now, and going into the brig tonight:

Alan T
Path12 (??)
Myself

and who else was in there last night?

And I'm thinking Marc Vaughn as the new Doc after what I expect is a path12 scan of him? (hopefully a clean one)

So we should have 5 cleared people safely locked in the Brig tonight?

is he even playing ?

I actually was thinking something similar actually.. I dont know that it is that far-fetched...

KWhit was also cleared.

Why not Schmidty and KWhit? And I can only put 4 in the brig.

If they're both Spawn, I'll just be as happy as anyone. My thinking on that though is, you vote hoops now and keep an eye on Telle. She could have been clean on Day 1 (not infected), clean on Day 2 and just been infected today. I think if hoops gets lynched and is Spawn I'm not clearing Telle. He could've still lied and then coincidence has her become Spawn after the fact. Just like if Telle is lynched and comes up Spawn I'm not clearing hoops, since he left today as well.

The warden can only place 4 people into the brig each night. So for now it is probably going to be me, Path, Kwhit like before + either you or Marc.. Which is why I was hoping Path would scan Marc so he could go in the brig. No offense to you since I think 2nd officer is also an important position, but we need to probably lock up the doctor also.

The other possibility is that I could leave the brig since it is obvious that I am part of an absolute trust group and people would know if I got converted.. but I don't think we should take that risk tonight as they could just outright kill me and it might mess up plans for taking off tommorrow.

So summary:

I think brig = Path, kwhit, Alan and Marc Vaughn (if he is scanned by path)

Schmidty is needed for security duty to guard the cargo hold

Awesome, I am useful! Am I supposed to get a pm about what happened here?

No, but so is seeking to hunt him because he's the only guy offering much in terms of opinions is also bad. Remember, we've had a ton of no lynch momentum for going on three days now -- there are a lot of trash posts in this thread.

Huh.. interesting.. so 79 total now? I like that news, but unless we know how that happened I'm not sure we can't trust it that it might be bad or fake crystilium... Anyone with ideas of how the extra 5 got in there?

No lynch momentum is not trash posts.. they actually make the most sense :)

Hoops will be scanned. If he is good, the brig should hold me, Alan, KWhit and hoops. If he's bad I'd suggest just KWhit and Alan, since we have no read on whether or not Schmidty is good or bad -- that whole thing could be a ploy.

My guess is GM miscalculation.

I assume this happened:

Guess again.

This post sticks out for me.

For one, it doesn't actually name Telle, or what he saw (perfect way to start the set-up) For two, it came well after he posted on a number of other topics (if you caught someone acting suspicious, wouldn't that darn near be your 1st post of the day?)

On top of it all, why would hoops tail Telle, and not RendeR? He made it clear RendeR was suspect #1A as of yesterday. Why the change (as of the time of night actions, we all know now that RendeR is clean, which is also a convenient fact given the time of this post).

Good call... well that is a nice break.. we still have to have the engines fixed though.

Got out of work a few mins early, catching up now...

So is a buffer of 4 enough to liftoff with or should we get some more to be safe? One more away mission in the morning?

The miracle worker thing was me. I wanted to make sure that went through before my scan.

ok caught up. i have no opinions to give

She's not a redshirt, she's an ensign. The privates are redshirts.


I have to ask this as well, as we have documented points of hoops doing suspicious things from day 2. Telle has only the act that she's been exposed more often than anyone else going against her. her missions have been successful if not spectacular.


The bold part bothers me greatly. The entire ship is trying to get things done to complete the mission, what are you talking about with this accusation? its wrong.

As for Hoops always probing and stirring tihngs up, damn right he does, and I cite the prime example of him stirring things up from the game he was pegged as a wolf and got an extra two days and at least one villager lynched instead of him out of it.

Don't trust him just because he's active, he's ALWAYS active and he's also most DANGEROUS when he's cornered or assuming that he's about to get pegged.

I'm still waiting on something more valid to vote for someone. I really don't see any reason to vote for telle at all, she's done nothing suspicious at this point.

1) No, they don't.
2) Well, there's not a direct causation between them, but we have 2k posts now and without us talking about votes, most of the posts don't really offer anything substantive. Lots of cross posts, trying to figure out the rules, important mission questions that while critical to the gameplay don't really offer us much when it comes to player's allegiances. We don't have two thousand posts of information, for sure.

My gut feeling is that he was going to go after Render and then had to change directions when Schmidty cleared Render.... as Schmidty threw him a curve ball.. but that was my gut feeling that I was trying to not say in thread <.< :)

ok, just a reminder that my weekend plans changed.... so ill be leaving for vacation at abotu 7..... i need to put in conditionals for tommrow. Im gonna shadow Tyrinth (cheif engineer) so whatever he fixes so do i.... I dont think i need anythign else :)

Mission > Spawn hunting.

unless osmoen has another idea :)

i'm catching up now, anything urgent I need to know about while I do so?