I'm pretty sure most of em are jerks or Lega Nord types, but man, they don't mess around do they? :) (actually, going to stop that line, this is supposed to be non-political)

My frustration is that if all we have to guide us are the worst possible outcomes (hospitalization or death) it is just going to lead to continued fear. Everyone has different tolerances for risk they are willing to take in their life. Some people are willing to bungee jump while others will "nope nope nope" away because there is always a chance of the worst possible outcome.

What does the death and hospitalization rate need to look like at each of the following levels before one should feel comfortable going about daily life?

a) the world
b) your country
c) your state
d) your county
e) your city
f) your workplace

Throw personal circumstances into the mix on top of all that (age, health issues, financial strain, etc...) and mix it with the need to maintain the collective good to make it more difficult.

My answer - no clue yet. I am just a nerd who plays simulation games and is trying to keep his family safe. But as a point of reference my county has a population of about 600,000 people and as of today has 108 confirmed cases. The state is currently on lockdown. When you step back and look at those numbers is there any wonder that many people are going to treat this like the flu and try to go about their daily life like nothing has changed? (I am not one of them, for the record)

The only thing I know for certain is that I tend to be cautious about these types of things and am not a big risk taker. I remember reading this comic strip as a kid and something about the final part of it always stuck with me:

Calvin and Hobbes by Bill Watterson for May 02, 1989 - GoComics

This would help a lot.

Korea finished developing the 10 minute Covid-19 diagnostic kit and is now ramping up production. They plan to export 300.000 test-kits per week - pic.twitter.com/DpJCph9RT7

— Florian Witulski (@vaitor) March 21, 2020

Bed, Bath and Beyond stores are closing from tomorrow through April 3. I expect some other “home goods” stores will follow suit

Not sure I understand Australia's approach. Shutting down except for essential businesses and ... schools.

Coronavirus: Australia to close pubs, cafes and places of worship - BBC News

I get what you're saying here but from my perspective it basically boils down to missing the forest for the trees. Fear is natural in a situation like this, and on its own I'd say it's healthy and even useful. At a certain point, when public health officials are speaking with a virtually unanimous voice on something and advocating measures that would have been considered extreme in the past, I think there's basically a choice to either accept what they say, or to not to do so.

In terms of being comfortable in daily life - I don't see that happening until a vaccine is widely available. I'd give you a softer answer if I could, but I think that's where we are. I expect this to be a defining experience for most who live through it. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that since the Greatest Generation lived through the Great Depression and World War II, there will not have been any singular collective experience that changed the world more. I don't think it ever goes back to quite the way it was, and I don't know how exactly things will change because I don't know how bad things will get or for how long. I don't think anybody does.

It's a lot of uncertainty for sure, and that's scary. But I think it's far better than the alternative of trying to keep on top of something we have no chance of actually keeping on top of, and costing more lives in the process. I totally understand how others would come to different conclusions.

Yup I agree. Before now I would have said 9/11 or GR but pretty sure those will pale in comparison to what we have experienced and whats to come.


I predict people will stock up on more toilet paper, hand sanitizers and n95 masks for the foreseeable future.

My mom's being moved into hospice care this week. She has stage 4 pancreatic cancer and it has totally surrounded her liver. Her eating has reduced dramatically and it is now a major thing to get her out of bed to go to the washroom. So we likely only have weeks to go.

I"m even worried about visiting her in hospice care. I'm from Toronto, and in her town, they probably perceive all of us as having the virus. Their town only has 3 cases to date. So I could see them not letting me into the place to visit.

She was a teacher in a small town and really affected the lives of a lot of people so it would have been a big funeral. However I don't think they can have a public funeral. Maybe something small for direct family only. She deserves more than that, but funerals are for the living, and we have to take into consideration the health of us.

As I said to my dad earlier today, the coronavirus is one thing. My mom's deteriorating health is another. And the stress from both is definitely more than the sum of the individual parts.

I'm very sorry to hear. I can't imagine what you and dad are going through. Best wishes, seriously.

From what I can tell, the Australian school year just started in late January. I guessing that and giving the parents an option of keeping their children at home gives him coverage. I just don't know how much of an option that really is for the parents.

Brian Swartz, an you please cute your source on warm weather not affecting this thing?

The Latest: China says all 39 new cases from overseas - Houston Chronicle



I will eat my house, brick-by-brick, if that is factually correct. Even if they did everything right, there would still be some cases that slip through the cracks, especially this close to when the quarantine was. It's just not statistically possible. Unless, of course, they were going to do the same bs like we're doing where it's impossible to get a test. Even after getting a national testing apparatus up and running a couple of months ago.

SI

I don't think you give up on testing. It's still really important to know if you have it and whether you should isolate yourself. If Rand Paul didn't have access to a test, he'd be out infecting countless people right now.

Another factor is knowing you have it and recovering. You now have antibodies and may become real valuable to society.

Oof, that's so hard. My condolences to you and your dad. I hope you guys get as much quality time with your mom as you can.

I've heard mixed things on this, and I don't remember exactly where I read it - I've seen multiple sources on both sides. I think the real answer is frankly we don't know. But the idea that it doesn't is based on what we are seeing right now in warm-weather climates. I.e., Singapore and Australia are two good examples, China to a lesser extent. It averages about 65 F in China in December and the thing had no problem spreading. It's in the 70s right now in Australia, and still bad enough there with over a thousand cases that they are shutting stuff down.

It may well be that it's warm enough in the peak of summer (i.e. 80s and 90s) to make a significant difference. I do think these observations give reason to think it's not as vulnerable to heat though as your average flu is.

I agree that this is still important. I just think we can't afford to do it with the PPE shortage, because I don't think knowing more about who has it is worth increased danger to medical professionals and the critically ill when the virus has no chance of being contained.

Those observations don't tell you much without some kind of data comparison on how those locations would have fared if they were more humid, and warmer.

MIT researches (and others) thinks it spreads more slowly in warmer temperatures, in more humid air. Even within China, for example, more humid cities with higher temperatures saw a slower rate of infection than drier cities with lower temperatures.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/h...ronavirus.html

It's been nice here for the past week or so, but we are about to head into some extended springtime rains. I'm not concerned about the effect on the virus so much as my mood.

Jesus man. I’m sorry to hear.

Anyone know how Canada's response was during all this with testing and containment and such?

Oh wow. Italy has apparently told their doctors that if you're 60 or greater, you don't get a respirator (there are just none available)

Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 - The Jerusalem Post

and the US is right near or above the Italian trend right?

Canada is at 1470 cases and 20 deaths, so good but not great (38 million people in the country for what its worth).

Prevention wise, it seems we are synched up quite a bit with America. The caveat to this however is that COVID-19 really took longer to get here. So we are implementing similar steps to the USA at the same time but we are ahead (behind?) in the curve.

I think the neighbouring relationship really helped. Once the NBA shutdown, the NHL followed suit. That forced the country to pay attention (not a joke) even though the cases and spread were minimal at that point. After the NHL shutdown, all the junior and minor leagues immediately announced they were also shutting down.

Schools in most provinces are shut down for at least a few weeks, most businesses are shut down or work from home and there's a really big push on social distancing.

The international border is essentially closed and international flights are restricted to four cities and basically comprised of incoming ex-pats. Every province is in a state of emergency, including where I live (which has about 20 cases in a 1.4 million population).

There also doesn't seem to be the same scarcity regarding testing.

Like I said, I think having the benefit of the neighbouring relationship with America but not getting hit by COVID-19 at the same time has helped us be where we are at. Otherwise I feel as if we would be closer to where America is some countries in Europe are at right now.

That's a good point. Hope this pans out and the US/Europe/whoever else can get some good respite for study and treatment improvements. I have also read that coronaviruses in general do tend to be more resistant, but SARS waned in the summer months even so. One of the rare times we can be thankful for global warming.

That is both chilling and entirely expected on the respirator age limit. It's really hard to know honestly in terms of the trend. We aren't seeing nearly as many deaths and with the testing still being limited … but in terms of how the hospitals are filling up, I think we're on a slower but similar path. Can't prove it though.

*sigh* so many unknowns.

Jason Altmire on Twitter: "Florida still not taking #COVID19 quarantine seriously. Beach goers flocking to Ponte Vedra Beach today. #Floridalockdown… https://t.co/BgAc9ijfAS"

One can only hope it slows down by itself ...

Neil Diamond playing modified Sweet Caroline.

Made me chuckle some. Some humor needed these days.

Neil Diamond Gives 'Sweet Caroline' A Less-Touchy Makeover For Coronavirus | HuffPost

Is the UK still doing the herd mentality or not? This is a pretty good way to infect the herd.

Coronavirus: Tube drivers 'furious' at crowded carriages - BBC News

Sorry the graph is this size, but I thought it was an interesting one.

Mayor of NYC was just interviewed and said massive gouging with regards to PPE. Said he spoke with the POTUS and VP and begged them to put some sort of system in place where those that need the equipment most get it. Said that they thought they had tens of millions of masks secured just to be outbid by another state/government. Also said NYC has enough ventilators to make it through the week then people will start dying who shouldn't.

The USA today article on Appalachia was spot on. Between loss of income, rampant drug use and addiction, lack of infrastructure, and now this, they are going to be much higher than typical mortality rates in these small communities.

I heard yesterday that our company had purchased 5 million single use sani-wipes, which we use all the time, and regularly have for cleaning in the cockpit and service areas, only to have the government seize them for someone else. They were able to get some small bottles of sanitizer, but you can't wipe stuff down with that.

I agree with most everything here, especially with respect to the NHL shutdown being the eye-opener for the majority of Canadians. However I feel like Ontario (Toronto) and BC (Vancouver) are in a bit rougher shape than this lets on. They are large, international hubs and got hit earlier than the rest of the country and it's showing.



I do think that our nationwide response since the NHL shutdown has been pretty solid. Our province (Manitoba) feels like it's a bit slow to react comparatively, but so far it hasn't had a hugely obvious negative impact so perhaps the response has been adequate enough.


I think the next major domino to fall will be closing of provincial borders, which will be annoying if this extends into May and beyond because my cottage is on the other side of the Manitoba/Ontario border and that would otherwise be a great place to go socially distance.

Michigan is finally going to go on lock down today. The governor was ahead of the curve when it came to certain things - like closing all schools - but she was really dragging on the "shelter in place" order. It's long overdue based on the number of cases we have.

I have taken vacations with the sole intent of living a "shelter in place" lifestyle, so I'll be fine.

I haven't seen this graphic before - scroll down to the end and there's a dynamic chart showing confirmed cases on a cumulative daily basis.

The late run in the US is startling, and hopefully just because they are testing a lot more...

Coronavirus symptoms: What are they and how do I protect myself? - BBC News

First world problem possibly...

So our first grader's school was closed and the school district is going to teach virtually. Kudos to them, my wife and I fully expect to do the best we can with it.

We just go an email today about our twin boys who are both in pre-school in the same district. They apparently are going to try to go virtual as well. Ummm... I know we are all in this together but we pay for two things really socialization and daycare, we don't expect much academically nor do they get a whole lot academically out of it. Am I wrong to think we should not be expected to pay for April and May for "virtual learning" for 5 year olds?

@JAG : Does this take into consideration some sort of 'minimum occupancy' if you manage to move everybody you reasonably can ? Because other patients still need ICU beds as well.

Just read a report where the Lombardy had 640 ICU beds before this started and now 'more than 900' (remember there are limits due to space constraints as well, not just getting the equipment. You need way more Square Feet per bed). Which, again, is not the true number available for Covid19 even if you clear as much as possible you will need a decent percentage for other patients and those will be in different buildings/wings from Covid 19 patients, too. So can't swap around at will.

The last 4 days you had about 450-550 patients dying in Lombardy every day and average time from hospitalization to death is 4 days and longer for recovery. So best guess there are likely 3-4 times more patients in need of an ICU bed than available. That is just utter insanity.

Friend of mine works in an ICU and he is basically at the edge already simply knowing what might happen ...

https://www.esahq.org/esa-news/analy...hesiology-esa/

@whomario - I don’t know as it is not my graph. I would assume it is a very rough estimate in any event.

You combine late testing with a population that 6-7 times the population of Spain, and we are going to have higher numbers.

Its a spiral. If you don't pay, they can't pay their employees and bills. Not telling you what to do, but I'm trying to continue paying things short term at least. Obviously would change if I lost my job.

Yeah that's the internal debate I am having. I mean if this were a couple hundred bucks it would be a no-brainer but we are talking appox 3K over the two months. We aren't hurting right now exactly but we are definitely in the red just during normal times due to the large preschool payment. They haven't sent a bill yet for April so maybe they will have some sort of reasonable compromise anyways.

That is insane. I am far from a developmental learning specialist, but zero chance kids that age are able to garnish anything other than extreme frustration from that experience.

My almost 10 year old had an epic meltdown this morning and my almost 7 year old is struggling to stay in one place. Not a chance 5 year olds can handle it.

Yeah I'm pretty sure the only reason they are doing it is to try to continue to get payments. Like if a daycare closed there is no chance they get any money right? Not saying their teacher is at fault or her heart isn't in the right place but it has to be a money grab.

I don't think you are wrong at all.

I was wondering about this the other day. When does it become OK to ask for refunds for things such as gym memberships, etc...

It totally is. The problem is if daycares by you are similar to many other places in the country there is a long wait to get into one, so if you cancel now you could be screwed. They know they have everyone over a barrel.

Will they be starting kindergarten next year? good chance they won't even be going back anyway if they are.

Got an e-mail from Georgia State University today that they will be refunding people for student fees that went towards things that are now closed, such as activity fees, parking passes, or meal plans.

Yes kindergarten next year. I figure we did pay them for March and totally understandable that nobody saw anything happening this quickly and would never expect a refund. Mine is for April and May which I am 99.9% certain will not happen.

Thought maybe the webpage from which you took it said sth about it, i kinda figured you didn't whip it up for the heck of it :D

I think its just a decision everyone has to make with the context of their own situation.

My gym is a small one that just opened in September and have been very supportive of me during the past few months. As long as I can afford, I will continue to pay as I want them to survive as well as pay their bills in the meantime. For their part, they are posting at home exercise programs daily.