2018 MLB Thread
 

It could be titled Otani watch, but for now, the M's tske on Dee Gordon's salary to gain more financial freedom to sign the Japanese star

I've been telling people for several weeks now that Ohtani will be a Mariner.

Apparently Stanton will only approve a deal to the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Cubs

Please come to New York!!

Yankees probably want their money with Harper

Rumors coming out today that the four team list was premature and that Stanton has not officially ruled out any team.

Ohtani to the Angels.

Interesting.

Did not see that one coming. I thought he was Seattle bound for sure.

The Angels were the only team that would agree to let Ohtani both hit and pitch every day
— Sam Miller (@SamMillerBB) December 8, 2017

Hope they can keep that story straight for the inevitable investigation.

I think he is a good fit for the Angels. If his power translates, gives them some much need left handed pop in the lineup, a nice 4 man OF rotation and pitching depth, in which he could end up anywhere from a 1 to 3 starter.

Yanks have a deal with Marlins for Stanton. Not sure yet what they're giving up. Starlin Castro and prospects is all I've seen reported.

That's a pretty strong RH lineup and essentially takes them out of the. Bryce Harper sweepstakes

Yeah, not fun facing Sanchez, Stanton and Judge consecutively. I am okay with Castro going as it opens up second for Gleyber Torres, who should be fully recovered from TJ surgery. Torreyes could slide in their too if they can't get rid of Headley.

If they can add another starter to shore up the 4/5 spot in the rotation that is a lineup that can contend for years.

I just want to stop by and say, Fuck the Yankees, and Fuck Stanton. I won't miss seeing him in the NL, and I was secretly holding out hope that LA could figure out a way to get the deal done, but knew it probably wouldn't happen. Otani (sp) took away the Angels for him, but still. Fuck everyone.

Yanks will take Kershaw for him :)

YOU! GO BACK TO YOUR CORNER! YOU'LL TALK WHEN I SAY YOU CAN!

So after this, Jeter can leave the Marlins and attempt to hook up with the Cubs, right? Kris Bryant would look good in pinstripes.

Yeah it's a lineup that could post close to 300 homers.

If the reported 35 mil from FL is correct, with Castro included the deal could be almost salary neutral up to Stanton's option year.

I'm so surprised the LA didn't get Stanton. That team has more money than God. Can't stand em.

Dodgers don't really want to take on bad contracts anymore. They also care about the luxury tax because of draft position implications

Bad contracts are guys like Albert pujols. Not reigning MVPs that still play the field at an acceptable level

A guy averaging 120 games a year and a mediocre fielder with 10 years left, is a bad contract. Doesn't make him a bad player

I think Pujols was measured as the worst every-day player in the majors last season (may have been 2016). Nothing to do with salary, just simple awfulness.

EDIT: nope, this year https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...r-in-baseball/

Yeah, while that contract is perfectly fine for the next two or three years, it's eventually going to be categorically awful.

Makes him a nice DH though :)

If he falls apart, it's a bad deal. If he continues to play well, he'll opt out so this could only be a 3 year deal for the Yanks.

I don't conceivably see him opting out and getting a better deal

Dang, I wish Ozzie Smith was the Marlins GM

Ted Simmons finished 1 vote short of the HOF?

Yeah I think it's past time to fold the veteran's committee .

If he puts up three healthy years at a high level - not necessarily threatening 60 every year, just 'I'm healthy, and I'm raking,' somebody will give him 7/210 and not even blink. That's his floor in an opt-out scenario. How much higher he goes depends on other circumstances.

Isn't he already getting that in the current deal?

I think the opt-out depends on what Harper and Machado get.

Yes. And that, IMO, is his floor, provided he stays healthy and productive.

Unless his production craters or he goes back to being hurt every year, there's no reason for him not to exercise his opt-out.

That's the thing. Unless he is going to get significantly more, he won't opt out. Now I would guess after three productive years, he will find someone to give him significantly more, and he would opt out. But if all.signs point to him signing a similar contract to what he already has, what is the benefit of opting out?

If what you have is the floor of what you'll get, then the benefit is that there's nothing but upside to opting out, and that upside isn't necessarily fiscal.

At minimum, opting out gives him the freedom to choose his destination for the first time, and maybe that choice is driven by other-than-financial considerations.

But in terms of straight compensation, as JPhillips alluded to, next year's FA market could reset what "market" means for Stanton. If he's making $32m or so AAV and Machado and Harper push more like $40m AAV, there's upside there for Stanton even if he doesn't join them in the $40m AAV club.

And even without that, having the leverage to play 29 other teams against the Yankees - particularly if he's been productive - gives him the opportunity to boost his take.

Shoot, if nothing ELSE, he can tell the Yankees "look, I signed the deal I signed because I was playing half my games in Florida, where there's no income tax. If you want me around for the long haul, we need to talk about a new contract that addresses that." This year, the Yanks kind of had all the leverage. Nobody else he wanted to play for was willing to assume enough of the contract to make anything happen, from the sound of it. Everybody in the world knew he wanted out of Miami. Three years from now, that changes.

He has the leverage then, with the ability to opt out, the threat of signing with Boston or another major media market, and the aging and development of their young players could mean that, draft-wise, they won't have been able to get a franchise-level talent to plug into the hole he leaves behind (because they'll have been winning 90+ every year).

It's a no-lose scenario for him. If he gets hurt again or just sucks, he's got $295 million coming that nobody can take away from him. If he maintains or even improves his performance, there is no downside to opting out. Just upside; the question is how much.

Yea but you said 7/$210 M. That's the entire crux of what I'm saying. All of what you say are sensible reasons to opt out, but almost all of those are for money reasons. If he is going to opt out, he needs to have a really good idea he is going to get significantly more than what he is already set to make. Which is not 7/$210 M. Just as hypothetical, let's say he would get 8/$280 instead, maybe with another opt out after three years. That's a reason to opt out.

I guess what I am really saying, in your original argument, you shouldn't have tossed out 7/210, but a significantly better new deal. Otherwise, outside of non-baseball reasons, as you mention, why opt out?

I feel like I'm missing something, but if he knows he's going to get AT LEAST what he's already making, why wouldn't he opt out? Why does it need to be significantly more? Isn't even $1 more a "successful" opt out?

Sack didn't say a $1 more. He said he's getting the same amount (in his hypothetical).

Just to clarify, after the 2020 optout date, Stanton's deal has 7 years and 208 million guaranteed, and an additional team option at $25 million with a $10 million buyout. That said, opting out makes sense even if you don't think you'll get more money, if it lets you choose where to go in three years. Right now, Stanton had the leverage to force the move to the Yankees. Three years from now, he may want to go somewhere else.

The real question, as has been suggested, is what do the deals of Harper, Machado, and Trout do to the market? Harper is probably the most relevant next domino to fall because of two reasons: first, he apparently wants a record-breaking contract, and second, he's really only had one season that merits record-breaking. His established level is at the 5 win WAR mark, with significant upside, but also the likelihood of missing about 20 games a year with one injury or another. Supposedly the $500 million figure has been thrown around, but if you pay him that, what the hell does Mike Trout get when he's worth about $15-20 million more a year than Harper?

I think when all is said and done, the contract number for Harper is 10/$380. That gets him:
The largest total contract in American team sport history,
The largest single season contract in MLB history,
The largest AAV in MLB history,
And will put his total career earnings by the end of the deal above A-Rod.

But, it doesn't overvalue him all that much. The upside on Harper is that even at the end of that deal, he's only 35. The real key to that deal is if he can produce more than 5-6 WAR a year during the meat of the deal. If he can, then he should still be an asset at the end of the deal. More importantly, if Harper is worth $38 million a year, then Stanton in 2020 can probably get $40 million. The only problem for Stanton is that he's at best the 2nd best OF on the market, because that's when Trout hits FA, as well. Trout's going to be the guy breaking (likely Harper's) records for salary.

If Stanton opts out he already knows what kind of offer is available to him. Tampering almost always happens.

Since his current deal includes a full no-trade clause, I'm guessing he would need a lot more money to opt out (and potentially give that up).

Are we sure that the contracts are going to keep going up? Take Harper for example. How many teams can realistically offer him the kind of massive money we're talking about here? I feel like we have enough good GMs in the game now that these giant deals are going to be rarer.

I said 7/$210 is his floor, as that's approximately what would be remaining on his contract at that point. And, actually, looking at bb-ref, 7/208 is what remains of his guaranteed money after this year ($10m buyout on his $25m option year also), so a 7/$210m contract is still a marginal improvement.

But the crux of what I'M saying is that even if, financially, 7/$210M (or $208M) is what he stands to make if he opts out, there is zero reason not to do so, because even if the dollars don't change, he can improve the contract in other ways.


I tossed out the numbers I did because they represent a floor. In any world in which an opt-out is likely, he's not dropping below that point. Given that, there's no reason not to opt out (or make the team believe you will) and see if you can improve your contractual terms, whether that's guaranteeing the 8th year that's currently an option, seeing if you can play the market for more money, making the same money you're already slated to make but for a team you'd rather play for, or any of a dozen other creative options that his agents would no doubt brainstorm.

It's the whole point of a player option. You don't negotiate for something you there's no point using, assuming (as players will) that you perform up to the standards you expect of yourself.


Pretty much this, and again, that ignores the possibility that there may be tangential improvements to new the contract that aren't directly tied to financial compensation.


I said he's not getting less on the open market than what he's already making. That's what "a floor" means. Please don't misrepresent my argument. As long as he stays healthy and productive - and productive needn't mean a repeat of 2017 - what he's slated to make represents the minimum he can expect on the open market. Given that, there is zero reason not to explore the upside potential.

There's a limited pool of players who could expect to command that kind of money to begin with. Machado, Harper, Trout, Kershaw, Bumgarner, Stanton.

There's dudes a tier down who've enjoyed the rising tide effect of those top salaries, but that's the tier I'd expect to be affected by the "good GMs." The elite are likely to still get paid. Yes, their market shrinks some because there's a more limited number of teams that can realistically play in that pool - Tampa Bay is never going to be a threat to sign Harper. Neither is Milwaukee. So forth.

But as long as there are a half-dozen or so markets who have to contend with outsized fanbase expectations, generational talents will get paid.

Padres totally fucked the rest of the league by taking on the Headley deal. Means the Yankees can easily sign CC, probably Frazier and a few reliever types(or take a gamble on Pineda for a 2 year UCL rehab)

What in the heck do the Padres get out of that deal?

Like Sack said, the top of the baseball market has always gone up higher & faster than people a decade before would've thought feasible.

Glad to see the Yankees going back to being hated for buying players. Since Dombrowski showed up in Boston we've been the ones overpaying for players in FA/trades while the Yankees grew a homegrown core.

Sounding like Ozuna is going to end up on the Cards

Yeah, looks like for a package involving Sandy Alcantara and some lesser prospects. I like the move. As much as Stanton is a stud, I think I'd rather have the younger and cheaper Ozuna (who still hit 37 bombs with a .924 OPS).

I'm really worried that the ball will change again and the HR numbers will drop league wide. I wouldn't want to commit much money to guys that had career years in 2017.

Yeah, Ozuna is amazing. Bummed the Giants' farm is so thin they couldn't get him - he's exactly perfect for what the Giants need.

Im hearing Piscotty to the As

Cards OF is clogged. Like 10 deep. They are not done by a long shot.

Yeah, but Ozuna hit .312 last year as well and plays great defense - so he's not just power. At an arbitration deal of around $10 mil for next year (and then under control for 19 as well), it seems like a pretty solid move. If he does really well next season, they can try to extend him. Worst case, he comes off the books after 19.

Yeah, I was speaking more generally. Some people are going to cash in this year and the revert back to 2016 stats and look like busts.

Im surprised they would go away from a juiced ball. MLB is always talking about getting fans and keeping them. I know they realize scoring and home runs attracts the average fan.
Why would they go away from that?

They might not. The problem is that it's an unknown as to how juiced the ball will be. It makes things very unpredictable.

I like it! Stanton was a ton of $$$$$ so I hope we are not done. We need a closer badly and probably another SP at the very least.

Cards just traded Piscotty to the A's for SS Yairo Munoz and 2B Max Schrock. Munoz hit hit .300/.330/.464 in a season spent at Class AA and Class AAA. He hit 13 home runs this past year, drove in 68 runs, and played 112 games. MiLB.com ranked him the 13th-best prospect in the Oakland A's organization.

Seems like a solid move. Piscotty was going to be a bench player with a history of injuries (and a new $33 mil contract). I'd rather use his money on an infielder like Evan Longoria.

Totally agree.

Ozuna - Fowler - Pham (looking like a good OF there)

If we can end up pulling off Grichek, C Kelly and some prospects for one of Archer/Colome and Longoria - I will be thrilled.

These Marlins trades are quite comical. I feel bad for the city of Miami right now.

They have not managed to get a single top 100 prospect in any of these trades. Seems like they were just rushing to get rid of players. Had they taken their time I would think they could have gotten a better ROI.

I think the Yanks will probably pull off a Josh Harrison/ Gerrit Cole combo. The pirates would probably like to have Clint Frazier and then could flip Cutch somewhere for a few more kids.

I like Frazier, but that trade makes some sense, though the Yanks have two solid IF prospects that may be ready to step in. Of course here they don't bother to try and sign Todd Frazier to open up room for Gleyber as the utility guy, or outright starter at 3B.

I doubt we trade Kelly. He is the heir apparent. And with Matheny as manager, he will stay. Maybe Yadi to 1st?

Im hoping for 2 more big bats. Longoria and Machado?

Cards have an offer on the table for Machado. Hope its a good one.

Piscottys mom just diagnosed with ALS. She is in the Bay area. Classy move by the Cardinals to get him closer to home.

They could deal Andujar and Clint Frazier and a pitcher prospect for Cole/Harrison and have Gleyber for second with Torryes and Wade also around. Harrison could play 3rd or second or just play 3-4 positions. He's cheaper than Todd Frazier and not signed as long.(Frazier will probably require 3-4 years)

Ready to abandon my Mets fandom. Might as well just jump on the Yankees bandwagon. My dad was a lifelong fan, and I go to enough AA Yankee games.

That would be a pretty solid trade as well. Lose some power, but Stanton more than makes up for that and I think it makes the Yankees much better defensively.

They have debt payments coming due soon. They have to get these assets off the books in order to make payroll.

Call me puzzled but very little of this makes much sense to me. Why did the Marlins ever think they could afford that outrageous contract in the 1st place? Why did the new owners negotiate a deal in which the balance sheet was upside down and forced them into dealing assets or risk defaulting on payments so soon?

I mean Forbes values the Marlins at 940 million and they sold for 1.2 billion. In all probability the franchise will be worth 10 times that in 20 years but this franchise is being set back 5-10 years with all of these dealings. Will new ownership even want to deal with this headache for 5 more years?

Loria never thought he could afford that contract. Loria also knew he would never have to pay out that contract either. He had to sign Stanton to that contract though. The Loria group said for years that the reason they could not spend money on the team was the horrible stadium deal. The stadium was also given as the reason no one would go to the games. The promise was that with a new stadium, the Marlins would increase payroll. The Stanton contract did just that.


Good question and one that I would love to hear a non-nefarious answer to.

One of the local sports guys did a breakdown on what Loria put in and what he got out of owning the Marlins. Here is a quick breakdown:


Now you would think that after this, MLB would make sure that whoever bought the team actually had the funding to back the team and had a plan to put competent people in charge of operation. The new Marlins owners had to take out a loan in order to meet the purchase price. Derek Jeter is in his first six weeks running the baseball and business operations along with Mike Hill who was a part of the last administration.

They didn't care about Frank McCourt buying the team, they just didn't let him gut the team like he wanted to.

I don't know - 35% of their yearly salaries were in Dee Gordon and Stanton. Is that really a great move for a team? Gordon had suspension and injury issues while Stanton is coming off his best year and probably will regress a bit (never hit over 37 HR in his career before 2017). I don't think it's a terrible idea to move those contracts to get some flexibility for the future. This team isn't winning anything in the next 2-3 years - so why pay two guys inching closer to 30 elite money for their position? The one who is a little more questionable is Ozuna as he is still under control for between 10 and 16 mil via arb for two seasons. But, maybe they were scared he would walk and like Alcantara and Sierra as prospects. Either way, I can see the logic.

This isn't unlike what Houston did when it sold off Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Brett Myers, Carlos Lee and JA Happ over a couple seasons to reset. They key will be how Miami drafts and selects prospects for these trades. Winning 70-75 games with Stanton and some other vets isn't the best way to rebuild.

Finally, the reason they couldn't get much return for Stanton was because of the no-trade and the backloaded contract. Stanton would only go to the Astros, Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees. Had he agreed to go to St. Louis or San Fran, they could have gotten a higher return. Even the Dodgers were offering more prospects, but they didn't want to take back as much of the contract - so the Yankees ended up as the only real suitor.

Trading the players is not the issue. I don't think anyone would aggressively argue that a rebuild is the right move for the Marlins especially given their woeful farm system. What's the rush, though? Is this the best deal they were ever going to get for Stanton? Ozuna? They had the option of keeping them until they got the deal they wanted. Of the players you mentioned the Astros traded, none of those players were traded in December. All were in season trades. The trades the Marlins made have a desperation to them that should not be there for a team who is supposedly taking the long approach. These were salary dumps.

The key is going to be the drafting and selecting of prospects. According to Jeter, he has someone to do that job. That would be Mike Hill, the guy who has put together the current putrid farm system. Forgive Marlins fans for not believing Hill's abilities in this area.

As far as the return for Stanton, there were reports that the first time Jeter talked to Stanton or his reps was when he demanded that Stanton accept the trade to the Giants or be stuck on a team that consisted of him and a bunch of scrubs. Probably not a good way to build a relationship given you need Stanton's approval to complete any trade.

It is still early so things can improve. However, the new ownership was supposed the opposite of the Loria/Samson regime. The new ownership has come in and been pretty much more of the same.

With Stanton, they may not be saving any money. Between the salary for Castro and the money they are kicking in, the trade is potentially revenue neutral up to the opt-out.

CC back to the Yanks on 1/10m. He's got 230ish wins. Any chance he makes the HOF with 3 more seasons and 30 more wins?

Well it appears the veteran's committee will vote anyone in so one way or another he probably gets in.

In all seriousness, it would have to be 3 seasons more like '16-'17 rather than 3 seasons like '13'-'15 to have a chance.

Cishek to the Cubs for 2 years which seems to mean Wade Davis is not coming back.

Kemp to the Dodgers

With Gonzalez being DFA'ed by Atlanta immediately upon receipt.

Kemp is reportedly going to be DFA'd as well.

Im hearing a deal is being talked about between the Cards and Rays

Weaver, Flaherty, Grichuk and another player

For

Longoria, Archer, Cologne

OMG I would take that in a heartbeat!

I assume that trade idea is coming from someone in St. Louis.

Ya, I can't imagine something like that going down outside of fantasy baseball

Longoria to the Giants

Interesting...Curious to see which CF they land now that Span is gone.

Still going to need a lot more firepower to compete in the NL.

Yeah, the #20something third baseman in the majors last year is unlikely to be a difference maker honestly.

He probably isn't good enough to make a difference but not because he's bad but because the Giants need so much. He's at worst Top 15, and arguably a top ten at 3B.

Depending on the version of WAR, he's barely been top 10 in recent years and wasn't by either version last year. He's 32 and seems to clearly be on the downside.

The All-Overrated MLB Team: Eric Hosmer, Evan Longoria, Albert Pujols lead the way - CBSSports.com

"Barely" is still top ten (plus, I said that's arguable). He's definitely better than the standard Jon applied to him and within the Top 15 I applied to him, even last year.

My reference was from the upper portion of one of several summaries of the trade I'd seen earlier in the day, which noted that Longoria was either 22nd or 23rd in some third baseman metric last year (hence me going with 20something in my post). My guess is that it was probably an oWAR calculation, since at this point his value lies in his defense.

As one of the ESPN articles summed it up, he's a superstar name but no longer a superstar player.

I saw something that said that the Giants are still the 27th ranked team based on roster and they could have the highest payroll in baseball.

I think that's fair to say, though fangraphs had him at 15th & his 2016 was much better, so I'm comfortable still saying he's above-average. But it's also fair to say that he's going to be a huge upgrade for the Giants because they were #32 by far in 3B production, at -1.8 fWAR.

Yeah, kinda saw this coming after yesterday's signing.

Pittsburgh Pirates trade RHP Gerrit Cole to Houston Astros

Horrible return. No defending the Pirates front office. Basically 2 relievers and a utility guy. May as well kept him til the deadline

Pirates are going full rebuild. They traded McCutchen to the Giants.