Interesting QB Dilemma/Discussion
 

As we come to the end of the CCFL preseason, (Weeks 4-5 were this morning, regular season starts on Monday,) I find myself in a place to make an interesting QB decision.

BACKSTORY: It's a cap-crunched league, meaning that we add 15% of the cap to every team in lost cap room every year, so that we're only working with 85% of the salary cap. As a result, FA is far more robust, with many top teams being forced to expose good players to the open market. My starting QB left via FA, but I was able to trade for a solid replacement. However, right after I acquired him, tzach made me a trade offer for him that I couldn't refuse, so now I don't have a clear #1.


First off, the offense is pretty strong everywhere other than QB, so the guy is gonna have some weapons:



Dropbox - Screenshot 2020-12-17 09.50.12.png - Simplify your life

My QB options are as follows:


Dropbox - Screenshot 2020-12-17 10.02.55.png - Simplify your life



Dropbox - Screenshot 2020-12-17 10.03.10.png - Simplify your life



Dropbox - Screenshot 2020-12-17 10.03.21.png - Simplify your life

Their estimated AvInt numbers are 33, 83, and 54 respectively. So, in short, my options are:


FAIRCLOTH--Triple-affinity guy who is quite strong with short/medium/long throws but will throw more picks than average.

HUDSON--Single-affinity game manager vulnerable to double coverage but shouldn't throw a lot of picks.

SAWYER--Young guy with solid upside and no major liabilities. Will never have any meaningful affinities or conflicts due to 2 personality. Sawyer is trending upward in ratings. (I rarely keep under-55ish guys who aren't.) He's 10/40-->25/51 so far.

I think this could make for an interesting discussion, as there's no obvious leader here imo. The other issue at hand is that I have 57 guys I'd like to keep, so cutting one of the older guys before the regular season starts on Monday is most definitely on the table.

(I have already decided how I'm going to handle this, so I'll weigh in a bit later after some folks have responded, probably this evening.)

Hudson - Avoid INT + Running Ability = Start (plus mentoring)
Sawyer - Sit to develop
Faircloth - I'd cut, too many INTs for my tastes

interesting choice, and i'm glad i made your choice easier :-)



i'd say if you are throwing league ave %, the triple aff qb with 95 PER would be the best choice. but with the receiving weapons you have, you will probably want to throw more than that, and the guy with high avoid int would shine. the triple aff qb will still impact the whole qb corp, as you know, so i wouldn't cut him

I'd start Sawyer. Faircloth looks like a decent veteran stop-gap pocket passer, with a less talented offense he'd probably be my choice. Hudson looks like a turnover machine passing and fumbling so I'd get rid of that guy. I've also never had consistent performance from QBs with intelligence scores as low as Faircloth and Hudson.

It's a full season in one sim league, right?

I would roll the dice with Sawyer (tiny bit of cohesion, decent enough sense rush, promising Sole score) and keep Hudson for mentoring. It would force you to tailor the game plan slightly into more short passing, meaning you'll need a bit more big-play ability to make things work, or have exceptional get downfield guys with adjust ability.

Faircloth's sense rush would never make my team, even though the difference is probably 1/2 a sack per game.

I'd start Sawyer and call it a rebuilding year. I would bet that by mid-season he will have improved considerably and you can be laying the foundation for several seasons of being competitive.

Start the rookie with Hudson on the bench.

same as the others. Your WR 1,2, and TE2 are young enough that cohesion with the rookie QB will be important (assuming you can keep them all under contract). with Hudson on the bench.


Now, if it was pre-training camp it is a completly different story. I would lean more towards Faircloth over Hudson, only because a decent o-line and a GP with lots of running and extra protection can mask a bad SR bar really well, and I like Faircloth's overall bar layout over Hudson's.



If I had the chance to make a playbook tailored to Faircloth, I would start him this year and start the kid next year, but that isn't the situation, so I'm agreeing with the others here. Low SR QB's are trash when they don't have a playbook designed around them.

Sawyer > Faircloth > Hudson

Ah, Ben explained it's a more traditional one week at a time league.

I would probably still go with Sawyer and stick with him throughout. Those that read my IHOF dynasty report or follow along there might note that I had a somewhat similar rookie QB on my team and although he's been a bit of a pick machine, I stuck with him throughout the season, despite that I had a veteran QB with cohesion value. I didn't feel like it was a lost season, wouldn't expect much better from the veteran anyway, but the turnovers did cost us a game or two. We would have still missed the playoffs at 10-6, so it wouldn't have made a difference in the end at all.

Back to the specifics of the question, some might choose to sit the youngster Sawyer another season, keep Hudson to mentor him and go with Faircloth starting, if the OL is solid enough (and knowing Ben's roster building tendency, it probably is) to protect the pass, making him slightly less of a pass rush prone QB.

lol there's no rebuilding year for gms of ben's caliber


CCFL: Atlanta Falcons 2049

Hudson all day long for me. SR and AI ftw. Nice trio though, they all earn their spot in the 53.

Cut them and your TE

Give me the division back

Without asking for "trade secrets" can someone tell me what you are estimating the avoid interceptions rating by? I know similar to injuries, it's a hidden rating but this has been something I struggle with (really drafting any QB is like poorly thrown darts for me). I appreciate any insights or common theme to look for.

https://sites.google.com/view/tzach/...ion-calculator

So, here's an expansion on how I see the pros and cons of each, specific to this team

HUDSON
Pros--Yes, low interception pct, but I've observed that I value that less than many others. For example, my current IHOF QB has taken us to six bowls (2 wins) with his low 30s AvInt and 17 picks per season. Part of it is probably because I tend to throw further down the field than most, so a fair number of my QBs' picks end up being more of the 25-yard "punt" variety. Anyway, I also like his Sense Rush, which I DO value highly. The best way to avoid the FOF sack-fumble-TD (which I suspect may be a little overdone) is...not getting sacked.
Cons--The low bars in most pass distances, as well as on third down, are concerning. Other than my TE, most of my receivers don't have a particularly good Adjust To Ball rating, so a fair number of those bad passes are going to be incompletions. He's also year-1 cohesion.

FAIRCLOTH
Pros--I think I've mentioned the main ones for him earlier--super-high triple affinity (95 for him, 93/100/87 for leaders) and low on the bad passes in the distances I like.
Cons--Yr 1 cohesion, Interceptions, SR, Acc.

SAWYER
Pros--He's likely our QB of the future, so getting him in there and developed would make some sense. He's not going to be terrible at any skill once he hits his peak.
Cons--Lotta green for a team that's almost always in "win-now" mode.

Him being affinity-neutral is both a pro and a con for me. Means I can focus on position-group affinities with my draftees without concern about the QB, but the QB will never have meaningful ones.


So, what do I plan to do? Unless one does really badly, I'm going to split starts between HUDSON and FAIRCLOTH. That way neither will ask for big money or hold out if I decide to stick with them next season (which is a pretty good possibility.) SAWYER will likely get a start or two when we're playing weaker teams. If I can keep him "Content" through the next year or two, then I can sign him to a cheap long-term deal after that.

:wagfingers:

I totally appreciate this and obviously also too tzach.

Of course. I had completely forgotten that's one of your QB approaches when you have no clear franchise QB and two similar guys on team. :lol:

Hey guys -- how is that figured out ? sol - RD (obvious factors involved in calc)

select round((future_overall*1.000 - future_screen_passes*0.082 - future_short_passes*0.078 - future_medium_passes*0.091 - future_long_passes*0.091 - future_deep_passes*0.062 - future_third_down*0.099 - future_accuracy*0.095 - future_sense_rush*0.033 - future_read_defense*0.045 - future_two_minute_offense*0.029 )/0.296,1) as avint

And,. psssssttt...it has been on the player pages for 10+ seasons. ;) Avoid Interception Estimate

Dola: Under the bars.

http://ccfl.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=24154

LOL --oops (about it being there on the player card); -


I always thought (SOL - Read Defense) ----used to be the main determinant -- (or was that in prior versions)

It used to be (more or less) Soleciscmic Score - Intelligence.

So QB/low intelligence is not a problem, Looking at dealing for a 5y QB that has all high scores, 86 OVR. Using the avoid Int. it shows 93.7, but his sol is VH 45 but his intel is VL 2 which bugs me.

I have never thus far had a lot of luck with players like your Sawyer...there are many reasons, some of my own doing, but much of their potential always drastically declines between that 2nd and 4th season.

I ended up not having time to create a custom game plan for the season until Week 2. Hudson did ok Week 1 with a plan not tailored for my personnel. Specifically, from Week 2 on we've run a LOT more 2TE. Point being, Hudson had a MONSTER week 2 (332 yrds, 143.2 rtg) and thus solidified himself as my "#1." Meaning I'm starting Hudson against the top teams, Faircloth against the mediocre ones, and Sawyer against the bottom tier. Hudson is 6-0, Faircloth is 3-1, and Sawyer 2-0.

Our remaining opponents are 3-9, 5-6-1, 5-7, and 6-6, but Hudson is "Unhappy" so he's probably going to need at least 2 more starts, and I'd love to work in Sawyer at least once more.