World Politics
 

Since it came up in the other thread ... Why isn't/shouldn't there be one ? Gonna start with my countries election.


Well, there kinda is. They only got 10% though (way more in some eastern states though), so would be a bit more silly even to do more than allude to "irregularities". There's also an anti-vaccine/measures party now that got 1,3%, unfortunately means they get state funding. Imagine calling your country a dictatorship reminiscent of Nazi Germany, yet still get paid by said country. Oh the irony ... *

As for the question of future government in Germany: Most likely a 3 party Coalition between Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals with current finance Minister Olaf Scholz as Chancellor. Not exactly an inspired choice and had some scandals (like doing a shittastic job around the "Wirecard" fraud, which some might recall). He basically won his party the election by being the lesser evil and mostly keeping his mouth shut for the most part and then in debates carefully avoid offending anybody. His nickname among detractors is "Scholzomat" (Scholz the Automat) because no one can pull off sounding good with nondescript phrases quite like he can ;)

Gentlemans Agreement (broken only once before) is for the Party with most votes to get first go at negotiating with other parties. Not as left as it sounds though (for a minute it looked like a 3 party coalition with an even more left wing party was possible, but their results tanked big time), especially since it'll be tough to turn around this oil tanker and there's considereable conservative/right wing population as well. Still, anything is better than the CDU getting another shot. I think Merkel is a great character, but her parliament choices weren't exactly convincing and the party really stiffled her as well.
Their current head is kinda like Boris Johnson. A bit less right/elitist, but similar talent for hitting all the potholes and being aloof to what actually happens in the country.

Both the CDU and the SPD (who got the most votes with a last minute resurgence, where 10 points lower in polls only 2-3 months ago !) are very much the old guard parties, who routinely got 30-40% (or more) up until recently. Very much visible that older people vote for them, younger not nearly as frequently:

Bundestagswahl 2021

(Don't need to read German for the graphics really)

---------------

* In Austria a similar Party got 7,5% in a state election.

On the other hand, a genuine Communist Party won the local election in Austrias third largest city, Graz (or as it may now be called: Leningraz ;) ).
And i gotta shock you: Expect them to do a banging job. Were in coalitions before and have done great work helping to improve the city. And got lots of respect for walking the walk as well. Ever since '98 every member elected to council put 2/3 of his 'salary' into a fund for charitable causes, from paying for legal fees to paying for clothes or school books.

We in the U.S. have the military driving school buses. In the UK, they will be driving fuel tankers.

Nearly half of UK’s independent petrol stations still lack fuel | Supply chain crisis | The Guardian

So when do we abolish all these silly national boundaries and get on with the business of a global government?

First contact will be April 5, 2063. I think it happens after that.

In the meantime, you'll just have to settle for the UN.

Good chance that Duterte would have won as VP, especially in a rumored Daughter-Father run. He failed at Covid (but hey, who didn't), he failed at FP with China (didn't get much) but seems to be pivoting to the US now, he killed a lot of drug dealers, druggies etc. (and probably some innocents along the way). But overall, high popularity ratings.

E3B1C256-BFCB-4CEF-88A6-1DCCD7666635

I have a co-worker from the Philippines that LOVES Duterte. She says she voted for him and would do it again if ever given the chance. According to her you couldn't walk down the streets without some drug addict on a motorcycle trying to steal your purse. So she loves his tough stance on drugs.

One of those cute times when the people confront an elected official turned out not to be so cute.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/15/uk/uk...gbr/index.html

What are your go to sources for world news and politics?

I've been trying to get DW into my reading rotation. Seems like I can get a much wider scope on the world by going to non-American sources.

Just curious of what others use.

Because that is a sign of the world coming to an end

ELI5: What's going on in Kazakhstan? Like the real story - who is pulling which strings and why did the government resign?

SI

Trending in the World- Storming National Houses of Power


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sri-lan...CNM-00-10aag7e

Another head of state has resigned/been pushed. More of a normal thing in Italy though.

Mario Draghi to resign as prime minister of Italy | CNN

Any country that has a parliament. I really wish we did to be honest.

Dunno how the Situation in the US is but thought i'd mention that large parts of Europe is sleepwalkinh into mass poverty from energy prices (Gas of course the major culprit) with hikes up to 500% not thought to be all that unlikely anymore, actually already a reality for many looking for new providers. And Germany isn't even the worst off and definitely not least capable of offsetting it with state money ...

Personally am lucky my local communal provider seems to have done a terrific job on the market and preparing with prices 'only' going up 50% from October and me being lucky to have a very efficient system in my flat (well in the lowest group for amount needed despite largely working from home) and having a decent enough income. But hearing about others i know things will get hairy, fast.

And, to bring it on topic, you can likely guess which sort of parties and groups are salivating over the opportunities a pissed off population offers...

I've said that particular situation is the thing the actually could drive Europe into war with Russia.

Oh, large parts of the US walked into mass poverty ages ago.

I don't expect the US to be dramatically affected by energy prices this winter (compared to Europe), due to, mainly: a) only a small percentage of our overall energy comes from Russia, and b) large parts of the US don't actually need heating in the winter.

I'm sure the energy companies will try and find a way to raise prices, though.

Texas jacked their prices up 30-50% last year, following the freeze and associated man-made crisis that transferred a ton of money to politically connected energy companies. It's expected to cost us something like $25B over the next decade or two (https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertb...er-storm-uri/). That's billion with a "b". And it was basically almost all artificially created and we're all going to get to pay for it. Stupid ass criminal state.

SI

I'm willing to guess that for significant portions (perhaps most?) of the US, it's cooling costs that are higher than heating costs. Or, say, energy used to cool is higher than energy used to heat.

Aware of the first part, was (trying tp) refer to the energy prizes. One add here though: other countries seeking alternatives to russian gas also raises prices for everybody else presumably, with more countries competing for fewer ressources ?

And yeah, as Flere said there's more to it than heating. Gas is also needed to produce power (from what i gather 38% of electricity in the US, which is a lot)

Also, is it really that many people living in areas that don't need heating ? Sure there's a few warm states but East Coast and Midwest are plenty cold enough i would think ?

I take it back, though I searched for a bit and couldn't find useful data. What I did find, however, is that it's actually less energy-intensive to cool air (because basically you're moving hot air outside) then to heat air (because you have to, uh, heat air).

Anyway, back to the original question. While I expect heating costs to rise, the U.S. will probably be more insulated (sorry for the pun) than Europe because a) it produces almost all of the natural gas it consumes and b) oil imports are mostly from Canada & OPEC.

Something might be brewing in Iran, protests started after a young woman "died in custody" of the so-called morality police and despite multiple violent crackdowns keep getting bigger ... The head of the morality police was sacked yesterday, protests still continuing


https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...ath-in-custody

Eine neue Dimension der Proteste im #Iran - absoluter Ungehorsam gegen das Regime pic.twitter.com/4lTi7UNWKd

— Natalie Amiri (@NatalieAmiri) September 20, 2022

The protest looks interesting, but this wouldn't be the first time there was wide spread unrest there that eventually dissipates.

Sure, doesn't make it any less remarkeable. Apparently the regime now shut down WhatsApp and Instagram as well as the largest cell service provider , on the other hand Anonymous forced the central bank offline. And i have seen like half a dozen vids of police being utterly pummelled by large groups of protesters and Protersters charging units, including those that operate on motorbikes. This is likely going to be ugly ...

Italy about to make a hard right, getting a government where Berlusconi is the moderate one. Fun Fact: This will technically be the 71st (!) government since 1945.

Giorgia Meloni may become Italy's 1st far-right leader since World War II : NPR

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midt...9bf2b4ba14c543

Is it just me or is Europe in general moving to the right. Any reason for that?

The fact that you said that Europe in general is essentially the reason. Whatever the problem, the far right can put the blame on outsiders whether that be the EU, immigrants, the World Bank etc.

Crisis (well, the plural of it), easy solutions and strong men (or, in this case, women) being en vogue, age pyramids benefitting parties promising to preserve the status quo or restore that of the past, 'conservatives' moving so far to the right in attempts to retain voters that they become indistinguishable from the hard right (and thus shifting the discourse), a media landscape refusing to learn from what has happened in the US. Also a sort of similar effect that iirc is a "thing" in the US re: midterms 'correction', only that it's subsequent main elections. Meaning in a lot of countries more progressive a left(ish) parties making inroads and now, especially due to the Pandemic and the Ukraine war/energy crisis, resulting in a big backlash as things aren't going exactly smoothly. Makes the stupidest done and dusted ideas and policies make a comeback which then benefits those that held those positions all along. (Be it in terms of energy policy, societal issues or just stupid manifactured culture war shit suddenly making headlines).
In general the developments mirror the one in the US and the talking points and issues, real or imagined/manifactured, are often the same, only coming a bit later later.

There are racists everywhere and hard line immigration stances are a great dogwhistle for racist policy that makes racists comfortable without having to necessarily be openly racist. It's crazy when reading reddit, ect how many europeans are pro trump largely because they hate immigrants of all walks of life.

Trump was and is largely despised in the UK. The strength of feeling was very unusual, even right wing voters I know dismissed him as an egotistical, misogynistic liar.

It does seem politics are moving more towards the right in several European countires. But I wouldn't group them all together as a whole. They are following different paths.

The only positive line I have ever heard on Trump is Putin wouldn't of had the balls to push in to Ukraine with Trump in charge. Who knows on that one. Personally I can't stand Trump, but in all honesty I do think that might hold some water possibly.

Europe as a whole is huge and diverse so I agree that you can't lump all European countries together.

I'm not sure on Trump and Ukraine. Putin was able to play Trump by constantly stroking his ego and saying nice things while bashing democrats. All things that played well with Trump.

Trump also seriously thought Ukraine was hiding Hillary's emails. I don't know if he would have been willing to take a hard line on a country that refused to help him with reelection and that he felt has covered for Hunter Biden.

I think a private meeting or phone call, a few nice words, some vague promises, and Trump would have looked the other way while Russia rolled into Ukraine. Keep in mind, QAnon believes this is a war against Nazi's and child trafficking so Trump would have had at least a couple people in his ear touting the righteousness of Russia invading Ukraine.

Trump would have pre-emptively sold out Ukraine and then claimed to be a peacemaker when Zelensky was overthrown by the Russians.

I think Putin entirely misread what he could get by Biden and Western Europe.

This. Remember Trump trying to pitch huge fits about NATO and paying their share? If Trump were in the White House, Zelensky would be dead and a Lukashenko-like puppet would be in Ukraine. Next Spring, we'd be wondering if the EU and NATO were dead after Russia rolled tanks into the Baltic states and the US did nothing (spoiler: yes, NATO would be dead). Trump would talk about how that used to be Russian soil, echoing Putin's talking points, and how this is Europe's problem and we need to protect our own interests and let them sort it out. Then, a couple days later, on the can, he'd spew out some other misogynistic or racist thing from Twitter and we'd be onto the next crisis and we'd be worrying about whether birth control will be covered by any insurance or just how close we are to making ghettos... I mean "sanctuary districts" in our major cities.

SI

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/b...cern-rcna49364

$1.03?! I know the Bank of England stepped in to bring it back up to $1.09 but still. I was shocked by $1.17 a month ago.

The irony is to many of us in the UK, myself included, a weak pound versus the dollar is a great thing. Certainly help my portfolio. But the strong dollar in itself is a curse to all economies, the U.S. included.

Liz Truss, embarrassing herself on local radio, condensed down to three awful, squirming, awkward, delicious minutes.

Everyone should hear this. ~AA pic.twitter.com/fFudJJBedA

— Best for Britain (@BestForBritain) September 29, 2022

Yes, the above account does not agree with Liz Truss' policy and edited this video. But I have seen anyone give a positive review of any of the eight different radio interviews she gave today. If you want to hear them yourself, they are here.

Newscast - The Liz Truss BBC Local Radio Interviews - BBC Sounds

Kudos to the BBC local radio interviewers for the tough questions but the Prime Minister's comm team needs to be fired. Well except the people who told her not to do the interviews. I can't believe they would allow her to be that bad over and over again.

Tough to dress up a turd. The tax cut is straight out of the neoliberalist handbook and the economic adviser allegedly behind it just gave an interview to a german paper that had the most "really?" Questions i ever saw in print. Complete dumbsterfire, both the presented plans the anticipated consequences of failure (say goodby to state institutions). I mean, at least he was honest: he's a 79 year old whose most modern influences are all dead by now

The proposed tax cuts and the ideas behind it are straight up betrayal of anybody not in the Top 5 or so percent with maybe a bit of wishfull thinking.. I mean, you get a glimpse in the snippets as well, straight furtune cookie wisdom.

A Times poll just had Labour with a 33 point lead, up like 15 since the announcement of the plans. (In the british system, which seems quite outdated itself) this would be an extinction level defeat as it would mean like 5% of seats for the Tories.

It's like applying GOP fiscal policy abroad: we're going to give a token tax cut to everyone just to say we're cutting all taxes, give a massive tax cut to the top, then cut a bunch of social services, and then wait for the wealth to pis- err... trickle down on everyone else.

SI

And we've reached the point in the US where 1/3 of our wealth is owned by the top 1%. We had been headed in that direction for decades but the Trump tax cuts greatly accelerated it.

Bolsonaro down about 5 points in the presidential election, runoff at the end of October needed due to Lula not cracking 50% (2 other candidates took a few % of the vote).

The chances of Bolsonaro not giving up power is what 80-90%?

Hey, look, the italian fascist's (who we were told by the super intellectuals of the Both Sides School wasn't reeeeeaaaally that bad and more misunderstood and yaddayadda) first major apointment is a fellow fascist, Mussolini shrine in the living room and all. Who would have thought? But hey, the aforementioned super brain intellectuals of the Both Sides School will surely tell me how that's not really a true, soon.


Also, Liz Truss fired her chancellor/finance minister after loud rumblings she's on the chopping block herself already. I'm sure Jeremy Hunt, who opposed her and is now getting his pay off for not toppling her i guess, will see to it that a fair and balanced plan is enacted that helps those with lower income. Just kidding. At least Truss is "determined to keep her promises", should really put peoples mind to ease. Well, those with high income and inherited wealth at least.

Who convinced Liz Truss that this was a job that she should want and was qualified for? I would have to give serious consideration to a conspiracy theory that she was put in place to remind Tories how good they had to with Boris Johnson.

Who needs to be qualified for jobs as elected officials anymore?

I mean, fascist is going to fascist - I think a lot of us get that at this point. It's just baffling how many people are like "you know what, when I go into the voting booth, I'm all for fascist because gas went up 50c on the other guy's watch".

SI

People only care about what affects them personally. Always has been true.

A story that always sticks with me in this context: Two of the most important detractors and defectors from Jonestown were Jeannie and Al miles, and they helped to bring Jones' insanity to light, after they defected.....but they only left after Jones personally beat their daughter severely with a paddle & had Jones simply beat someone else's child they probably would've happily chugged the flavor-aid.

The Tories still don't realize the root of the problem is Brexit.

Conservative MP Charles Walker seems broken by tonight's events - tells @BBCNews he is livid with colleagues pic.twitter.com/H5ns9iWV3T

— Dan Johnson (@DanJohnsonNews) October 19, 2022

Just a bit of context: That is a nearly-TWO-decade member of Parliament sticking the dagger into his own party.

edit: So far in the last twelve hours:

It comes out that there's well over the normal amount of No-Confidence votes from her own party needed to trigger a "Leader of the Party" election have been submitted, and only the technicality of new Prime Ministers getting a year in power before being eligible to be forced to step down has prevented it from happening. (edit: To make it clear, this is a Party rule, not a government rule, and can be changed if the party agrees to it, so it's ONLY a technicality right now)

The British Home Secretary has resigned for showing confidential government material to a MP (it was a proposed government position paper, so it wasn't huge but sounds like it's a pretext for resigning and attacking the PM, or a pretext for firing the Minister for basically being a culture warrior needlessly stirring things up and causing the government trouble at a time when it's all teetering. It could plausibly be BOTH)

The Government declared that a vote (on fracking) would be a de-facto vote of confidence in the government, and instituted the strongest line of discipline (a "Three-Line" whip, meaning anyone who didn't vote for the Government would be kicked out of the party in Parliament)

Despite this level of urgency (including reports of a couple people being physically made to vote with the party), there are 40 people who didn't vote with the government, abstaining mostly.

This causes the party's whip and the deputy whip, fed up with the whole thing (having tried and somewhat failed to maintain party unity, partially because members of the Government were simultaneously saying "You vote for this or you metaphorically sleep with the fishes" and "Eh, vote how you want", quit.

It comes out that the Prime Minister was one of the abstentions for whatever reason (it's believed she missed the vote because she was dealing with the resignations)

A two-decade member of Parliament says what apparently many Conservative Party Parliament members feel, blaming the Government and predicting the party will lose something like 2/3ds ("Two Hundred or more") of their seats in Parliament as a result of the omnishambles the government(s) has been.

It's like a season of Twenty Four. All this in the space of just a few hours

Edit Oh, forgot to mention one of the Prime Minister's key aides being suspended for privately briefing against one of the PM's political rivals (in the same party) in a targeted attack. In fairness, that was like, HOURS ago. Ancient History.

Apparently the whips have been convinced to unresign.

This is making Boris' tenure seem like the paragon of competence and level-headedness.

So...the lettuce wins?


edit: Lettuce wins!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm-RE95lKJ0