Sorry man. I'm not crusading against you whatsoever. I put the second vote on you to see what would happen (since day 1 is a crapshoot, right?). I put a vote on you today because it was down to you and Pass for the lynch and Pass turned out to be a villager.

I sort of give the no-shows a bye since (not sure if this is logical) the vamps were definitely active yesterday with the night kill and neither of them was around...statistically speaking, it is probable that they are both (or at least one) villagers.

I'll be back in a while, gotta put the monsters to bed.

Interesting.

Why? I did exactly what I said I wanted to do earlier, which was look back at the votes and see which was most suspicious. I've already said I wasn't going to vote Chief, so voting one of the two 1-vote getters with three hours left to go doesn't seem real imperative.

Well, Lathum and Render were the two people that swung the vote onto Pass and got him lynched. Lathum obviously was a good guy, but the late vote by Render on the good guy that got lynched obviously puts him on the radar.

I'm hoping that Hoops shows up at some point. I'm also hoping that Danny shows up to put in his thoughts. I'm not used to him being this quiet, so that's making me wonder a bit. Of course, maybe I'm just more suspicious of him simply because he said he was up for voting for me day one :p

I will be voting J23 or Raiders Army. I know people are looking at those late voters, but there is almost always a wolf or two that puts a second vote on someone.

The second votes from yesterday were J23, Raiders Army and myself. I'd bet at least one of J23 and Raiders is a wolf.

I'm not really quiet compared to usual, more absent though. I actually fell asleep yesterday after putting in my vote, but was planning to be around after deadline. I'm more well rested today, so will be around up to deadline.

Vote J23

I realize this a new candidate and it's likely too late to swing the candidates, but there's still time to see. If there is no swing, I will be switching to Raiders Army and not Render.

I will switch to make my vote relevant later, as need be. But I think DT is a more reasonable vote than many here. He put Pass up front when there was a lot to pick from. That's the time that a wolf wants to vote, precisely because it gets a bit buried by later voters.

I looked back and DT appears to be a solid vote as well. My thinking is along the same line as yours, but I was looking more at 2nd votes because it's a very common spot for a wolf and I happen to have been one.

Indeed I did. There was a lot to choose from, but i had no better way of knowing who was or wasn't a villager than anybody else. It wasn't some master plan by me to push Pass into the lead or anything.

Unvote J23
Vote Raiders Army

I already don't see a swing happening, and I feel much better about voting him than Render

lol, not the best wording there Danny.

I'll assume you're just pointing that out for brevity and not really trying to draw attention to me for what is clearly referring to something else :P

I had to read that a few times, trying to figure out why you would be revealing yourself at this point ;-)

You mean revealing as a wolf won't add to my trust level? haha

Anyone have the vote count?

Raiders Army 3
Chief Rum 2
Render 2
DT 1

I believe

So still three votes missing. I will be here, so I'll wait to move my vote to see if we get those three.

I'm here and reading, I haven't voted SOLELY for reasons of self preservation. I will vote before deadline.

I'm pondering between DT and Chief Rum right now for reasons I will state later.

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE RENDER

Self-preservation and other reasons.

Going to be in the subway at deadline. Even though at least one person has said they are avoiding render I see no reason to change at the moment.

I'd feel better voting Render than RA, though I don't wish to see a tie vote. I guess we'll see how the pieces fall, and try to stick around to move my vote to avoid a tie if need be.

Vote Render

If you're around Danny, I'm wondering what your reasoning is for throwing the vote on me earlier.

Well, I'd bet that you or J23 is a wolf. :)

That being said, if Render turns up as a wolf, you'd be my first pick tomorrow...knowing I'm a villager.

Why did you switch your vote, RA?

reasoning is above and quoted by RA

So it would have been better to bring in a 5th (or was it 6th) candidate with one vote?

I've seen that reasoning thrown around a number of times, but I honestly don't remember the last time that going by that logic caught us a wolf.

Self-preservation first and foremost. At the time, I was the led the votes with 3. My switch made it a tie. I know I'm not a villager (then again, that's what a vamp would say!).

er... :eek:

The second vote theory? It's help me catch a wolf probably upwards of a dozen times.

Umm.....yeah, really?

lol, we've had two wolf reveals in one night! wow, lol

I'm tempted to go back through games and see how often it's actually true for day 1. I also wonder how much impact the fact that people know a lot of people throw out that theory influences their votes. I know it has affected mine in the past. I guess it's just one of those meta-game kind of things I don't put much faith in.

I'd like to hear your thinking, Render, since I'm having to decide whether to move my vote to you or not.

You're not making any sense whatsoever. If you're going by a second vote theory and trying to convince others to do so, then they should vote for you since you put a second vote yesterday.

It's not meta game though, it's a strong statistical play for wolves to place second votes on villagers to establish them as candidates for the day and making it less likely a wolf is on the block. It's something I know I've done too often as a wolf, and it's very tempting to do as a wolf in general.

This is going to sound very cliche, but:


You really don't want to vote for me.

I'm one of the three yes, and I never eliminated myself from the list when talking about 2nd votes.

So, if you know that and you're a villager then why would you put yourself in a position to bring suspicion on you?

I'm going to post my thoughts about what I think is the best play regardless if it brings suspicion on me or not.

Well, yes you did in a way. I understand you aren't going to vote for yourself, but you also didn't put yourself out there as a candidate based upon the logic you presented.

I made sure to include myself on the list. I'm not really sure what else I am supposed to do, should I argue why other people should specifically lynch me? :p

dola, in other words you never presented a good argument why we shouldn't vote for you instead of J23 or me based upon the "2nd Vote" logic.

Somebody's got to place the 2nd vote on someone at some point though right?

I mean I get the "2nd vote theory" thing, but you can just as easily turn it around. I know when I'm a wolf I try actively to place votes later, particularly towards the end to break ties so that I can pull out the corollary of that and say "see...i'm not afraid to stand by the logic of my vote."

I dunno...it has value, but I don't think you can look at it in a vacumn

guys, stop bickering and start fixing the votes. We're getting screwed here. Please don't vote my way tonight.

And I didn't need to, I haven't received any votes. I would be happy to make that argument if it was needed.

I'm reading it 4-3 me over Raiders. Right now. Am I wrong?

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Purely self preservation here.

unvote Render
vote RA

Not sure why, but I'm buying it right now.

Of course not, but we don't have a ton to go on right now. I think looking at voters that set the candidates is generally a better play than looking at the late voters in this case.