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Butter 05-06-2019 10:23 PM

Sports betting?
 
So, anyone on here do any sports betting, now that we're on the verge of massive nationwide legalization? Seems like more states are adding it each week. ESPN and FS1 now both have daily shows devoted to it.

I certainly have been doing some, and would love to share picks or tips or whatever. I know some frown upon this, and that's perfectly fine if this thread dies a slow death, but wanted to gage interest.

Responsibly of course. My stake is relatively small, but trying to build it slowly into some actual money. Or lose a small sum trying and give it up.

Anybody?

tarcone 05-07-2019 06:21 AM

I only bet college football. And usually parlays. Im really bad at gambling. So i am probably not one to give advice. but I will listen.

Lathum 05-07-2019 07:57 AM

I bet a lot. Being in Jersey I am about 10 minutes from a sportsbook, plus have access to several apps. I was betting a lot during football/college basketball, but now that it is baseball season I slow down and focus mostly on DFS.

I like the futures market. Went 4/5 on NBA win totals, which was a nice boost.

Do you have sirius/XM? My advice would be listen to VSIN. Lots of good info on there. Tons of good trends, etc... I also follow several sports bettors on Twitter. You just need to be able to weed through some of the nonsense.

albionmoonlight 05-07-2019 11:35 AM

As a federal attorney, I've avoided online betting unless-until it becomes totally legal in my state. When I have made predictions that I would have bet, they tend to be wrong about 55-60% of the time.

When/if I start betting real money, I am going to see it as a hobby that I plan to lose (i.e. spend) some money on.

I am, however, looking forward to a world where I can put $20 on the Jaguars +6 and have some sort of more vested interest in caring about random Thursday Night Football games (since I stopped playing fantasy a few years ago).

Butter 05-07-2019 11:40 AM

I have been trying to figure out MLB a bit, and have basically just been combing through lots of information and then settling on what I feel are good picks for the day. I have been winning more than I'm losing so far on MLB.

Where I have hit a decent run, when I have time, is live betting on tennis. That's rough to do because most matches occur during the work day, but when I am able I certainly do. Live betting is very much about timing the match itself and trying not to get in at the worst odds, but trying to figure out when a match is about to swing momentum, or is in the middle of a swing. Plus, it's gotten me into watching more tennis, which I enjoy.

I do have Sirius / XM, but haven't spent much time on VSIN. It's actually programmed in, but it is like 33 of 36 presets so I don't spend much time there.

As far as parlays, my understanding is that those are a good way to lose money overall. Advice I have gotten to this point is to flat bet everything and only parlay when you have a very high degree of confidence. Which for me is not often.

What I find I have trouble with is narrowing it down to just a couple with high confidence. Which I guess if I could do on a regular basis, I could make money consistently. Instead, more common for me to end up with 8 plays and go 5-3 or 4-4 which is really just spinning your wheels.

I'll post some MLB plays here once I settle on today's and we'll see how it goes.

Butter 05-07-2019 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3237969)
When/if I start betting real money, I am going to see it as a hobby that I plan to lose (i.e. spend) some money on.


This is exactly how I've been treating it. Basically as part of an entertainment budget. I haven't won anything significant really, but neither have I lost any amount of money that I would miss.

JonInMiddleGA 05-07-2019 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3237971)
As far as parlays, my understanding that those are a good way to lose money overall.


Naturally therefore those are what my son prefers to play #smdh

Butter 05-07-2019 11:51 AM

I think parlays get romanticized because of stories like this:

How a 14-cent parlay won $1,300 - A March Madness love story

I guess not a big deal if you want to bet 14 cents. But hitting a 10,000-1 shot isn't going to work for most people.

JonInMiddleGA 05-07-2019 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3237975)
I think parlays get romanticized because of stories like this:


As described earlier, "entertainment fee" so if it entertains him then {shrug} I guess ... but it definitely ain't the route to steady winning

EagleFan 05-07-2019 12:06 PM

I only do a little. I was happy that I turned a 50 dollar deposit on draft kings into 400 by the end of the NFL season, starting around week 6. All from the betting, was negative with the few fantasy tournaments I joined.

molson 05-07-2019 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3237975)
I think parlays get romanticized because of stories like this:

How a 14-cent parlay won $1,300 - A March Madness love story

I guess not a big deal if you want to bet 14 cents. But hitting a 10,000-1 shot isn't going to work for most people.


It's the same as buying a lottery ticket but more fun.

And I think a smaller parlay with some handpicked money line favorites can be a good value. Though obviously you're not seeing payoffs like that.

I bet rarely, but when I do, it's usually an MMA show I'm attending. I'll usually parlay some favorites I feel really strongly about, and maybe throw in an even money type fight where I think a fighter is undervalued. There's usually an underdog or two that should maybe be a bigger underdog but has some unwarranted hype behind him for a particular fight. And it is fun to have a lottery ticket or two on the side - 4-5 fights with a couple of underdogs thrown in. I've only one won of those but it more than paid for the other similar lottery tickets I've thrown out there and lost. And the entertainment value of winning the first few events of a big parlay and anticipating the last couple of outcomes is basically worth the modest bets I put down.

Lathum 05-07-2019 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3237971)
I have been trying to figure out MLB a bit, and have basically just been combing through lots of information and then settling on what I feel are good picks for the day. I have been winning more than I'm losing so far on MLB.

Where I have hit a decent run, when I have time, is live betting on tennis. That's rough to do because most matches occur during the work day, but when I am able I certainly do. Live betting is very much about timing the match itself and trying not to get in at the worst odds, but trying to figure out when a match is about to swing momentum, or is in the middle of a swing. Plus, it's gotten me into watching more tennis, which I enjoy.

I do have Sirius / XM, but haven't spent much time on VSIN. It's actually programmed in, but it is like 33 of 36 presets so I don't spend much time there.

As far as parlays, my understanding is that those are a good way to lose money overall. Advice I have gotten to this point is to flat bet everything and only parlay when you have a very high degree of confidence. Which for me is not often.

What I find I have trouble with is narrowing it down to just a couple with high confidence. Which I guess if I could do on a regular basis, I could make money consistently. Instead, more common for me to end up with 8 plays and go 5-3 or 4-4 which is really just spinning your wheels.

I'll post some MLB plays here once I settle on today's and we'll see how it goes.


I have been betting sports for about 27 years. I am far from an expert, but have learned a lot.

Parlays are 100% terrible bets. Know that moving forward. That being said, they are fun, etc...During the football/ basketball season I'll throw an 8 team $20 parlay down, usually pays about 3500. I missed 4 times this year by one game, it was maddening. The worst being UNT needed to cover -4.5, led at the half by 12, won by 4. Lost 3500 by the hook.

The odds of making money consistently are slim, that said the #1 most important aspect is bankroll management. You have to be willing to pass on a night where you don't like the plays, or just admit you don't like them but want the action.

Butter 05-07-2019 12:40 PM

Yeah, I'm not saying I will never do a parlay. I have one open for tennis today, in fact, that I thought could be of value:

Djokovic -3.5 / Thiem -2.5 / Federer -4.5, for +204.

I had one in NHL hit earlier this year that was +1900, that was the night the Blue Jackets and Islanders swept their first round playoff matchups and both won by 2 goals or more.

I could definitely see doing some for fun during CFB season, as I feel like I have some knowledge of how to bet that.

Here is what I have tonight for MLB, all bets to win 2 units on favorites, or betting 2u on EVEN to plus odds:

TEX / PIT 1st 5 innings Under 5 total runs, -125
Padres +1.5, -140
SF / COL Under 10.5 total runs, -115

Tigers ML +115

Twins 1st 5, -0.5, -115

Lathum 05-07-2019 01:16 PM

I would stay away from Detroit, that kid Norris is a gas can. Any under in TX also worries me, especially with those pitchers and juiced that high.

Love the under Col bet, shitty weather.

Butter 05-07-2019 01:59 PM

Texas game is in Pittsburgh.

Also the DET bet is more about who the Angels are throwing out... most numbers I saw had this game really close to a PK, which means getting +odds on DET is a value. Angels have also been OPSing much worse against LHP this year.

Not saying you're not right, but giving some reasoning.

Chief Rum 05-07-2019 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3237993)
Texas game is in Pittsburgh.

Also the DET bet is more about who the Angels are throwing out... most numbers I saw had this game really close to a PK, which means getting +odds on DET is a value. Angels have also been OPSing much worse against LHP this year.

Not saying you're not right, but giving some reasoning.


Angels have been terrible against lefties this year. That said, they have been sneaky good overall on offense in relation to who they throw out there in the lineup, and keep an eye on the newswire--Ohtani might be activated today.

One other concern, BTW, is that the Tigers are drawing Canning today. He was very good in his first start at the MLB level (first 10 batters out with 5 Ks) before getting touched up a bit after that. He is the Angels top pitching prospect and a potential future #2/#3. So there is some risk there, especially given the Tigers aren't a particularly frightening offense.

NobodyHere 05-07-2019 03:23 PM

I've never been a big sports gambling person except for the odd superbowl squares. I prefer to risk my money in the stock market where there's better historical returns.

**Looks at today's DOW**

Maybe I should reconsider sports.

tarcone 05-07-2019 04:57 PM

I only bet $5 on 3 or 4 team parlays. And just for fun. I have never hit one. But it makes it a little more exciting to watch a game.

I used a guy at work who was a book. But he moved money around in the wrong account and his wife saw how much was being moved and she squashed it. She was okay with it at first, as long as she was blind to it. But his mistake opened her eyes.

Im waiting for it to be legalized in Missouri.

TCY Junkie 05-07-2019 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3237983)
I have been betting sports for about 27 years. I am far from an expert, but have learned a lot.

Parlays are 100% terrible bets. Know that moving forward. That being said, they are fun, etc...During the football/ basketball season I'll throw an 8 team $20 parlay down, usually pays about 3500. I missed 4 times this year by one game, it was maddening. The worst being UNT needed to cover -4.5, led at the half by 12, won by 4. Lost 3500 by the hook.

The odds of making money consistently are slim, that said the #1 most important aspect is bankroll management. You have to be willing to pass on a night where you don't like the plays, or just admit you don't like them but want the action.


I used to do a 2 dollar 8 team parlay every week in college football, just to see how my top 8 picks did. Hit only 1. They were all easy covers except the last one that went into OT and the right team got a FG.

As said management is everything. But I used to bet 5 dollars on any game on tv so I'd watch it. Towards end of season I knew the teams inside and out so beat more. I wouldn't mind losing 5 dollars early in season to gain information for later in season.

Butter 05-08-2019 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3237990)
I would stay away from Detroit, that kid Norris is a gas can. Any under in TX also worries me, especially with those pitchers and juiced that high.

Love the under Col bet, shitty weather.


You called two of the losses, so well done. Finished 2-3, Giants score 2 in the 8th to end the Under bid. 2-3 is not terrible.

That came off sarcastic, I didn't mean it sarcastically, was legitimately impressed that the two you poked holes in lost.

Butter 05-08-2019 07:54 AM

I mentioned I bet tennis a good bit, here is an example of what I'm betting that I'll update throughout the day. I finished a big project yesterday, so work is slow, so I'll have a number of live bets going.

This is Madrid clay tournament, with both men and women competing.

All bets to win 2u on favorites, 2u on underdogs unless specified.

Pre match betting:
  • Verdasco +125 v. Khachanov, WIN 2.5u
  • Dellien +400 v. Nishikori, 1u bet, LOSS 1u
  • Pella +130 v. Wawrinka, LOSS 2u
  • Pouille +105 v. Hurkacz, LOSS 2u
  • Ferrer +225 v. A. Zverev, 1u bet, LOSS 1u
  • Half unit parlay on above for +17000, LOSS 0.5u
  • 0.1u on round robin on above for 2.5 total units bet, LOSS 2.5u
  • Djere EVEN v. Del Potro, WIN 2u
  • Pella Over 23 total games, -120, LOSS 2.4u
  • Dellien +5, EVEN, WIN 2u
  • Tiafoe O22.5 v. Kohlschreiber, -120, WIN 2u
  • Kohlschreiber -0.5, -165, LOSS 3.3u
  • Monfils -2.5, -140 v. Fucsovics, LOSS 2.8u
  • Fognini -3.5, -150 v. Millman, WIN 2u
  • Parlay above 2 for 1.7u, +200, LOSS 1.7u
  • Hurkacz / Pouille O22.5 games, -125, LOSS 2.5u

In match:
  • Osaka / Sasnovich 1st set U8.5 games, -140, WIN 2u
  • Chardy 1st set ML + Tiafoe ML parlay, -260, WIN 2u
  • Chardy to win in straight sets, -135, WIN 2u
  • Barty / Putintseva O26.5 games, -125, LOSS 2.5u
  • Fucsovics 1st set -2.5, +125, WIN 2.5u
  • Fucsovics -8.5, +300, 1.7u bet, LOSS 1.7u
  • Nadal -3.5, EVEN final set v. Auger-Aliassime, 4u bet, LOSS 4u
  • Nadal to win final game of match, +140, 5u bet, WIN 7u
  • Stephens / Zheng O21.5 games, -125, WIN 2u
  • Vekic / Martic O21.5 games, -125, WIN 2u

Record: 12-14
Running total: +0.1u

Lathum 05-08-2019 07:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3238064)
You called two of the losses, so well done. Finished 2-3, Giants score 2 in the 8th to end the Under bid. 2-3 is not terrible.

That came off sarcastic, I didn't mean it sarcastically, was legitimately impressed that the two you poked holes in lost.


Didn't read it at all as sarcastic. I can't really give myself credit for the Pirates game as I thought it was in TX, but Detroit is a team I would never back unless Boyd was going.

Unders in general these days are almost impossible to take. Between the juiced ball and horrific bullpens it is really hard to get there.

Lathum 05-08-2019 11:04 AM

Took the over 9 in the Pirates game, Miller is terrible, and the over 8.5 in the Brewers game. Think they may get it themselves but William Hill doesnt have a team total up. This is a break out spot for them

Butter 05-08-2019 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3238069)
Didn't read it at all as sarcastic. I can't really give myself credit for the Pirates game as I thought it was in TX, but Detroit is a team I would never back unless Boyd was going.

Unders in general these days are almost impossible to take. Between the juiced ball and horrific bullpens it is really hard to get there.


Unless the Reds are playing, I was making a lot of good bets early in the season betting Reds unders, as their pitching has been good, and their hitting hasn't.

Butter 05-08-2019 11:51 AM

MLB for me today:

KC team total O3.5, -115, LOSS

Cubs -1.5, -110, LOSS
O's +1.5, +140, WIN

D'backs F5 ML +130, WIN
White Sox F5 +0.5, EVEN, LOSS

Twins ML -115, WIN

Lathum 05-08-2019 11:57 AM

ugh. Rangers load the bases with 1 out and cant get anyone home. blech

Lathum 05-08-2019 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3238092)
Took the over 9 in the Pirates game, Miller is terrible, and the over 8.5 in the Brewers game. Think they may get it themselves but William Hill doesnt have a team total up. This is a break out spot for them


Boom!

Lathum 05-08-2019 06:02 PM

Red sox +8.5. Tigers-LAA -8

Butter 05-09-2019 11:43 AM

3-3 yesterday, mediocre MLB day.

Darvish O6 K's

Angels ML
Rockies ML

Lathum 05-09-2019 11:51 AM

Going over 10 in the chicago cubs game. Winds blowing out and Darvish likes to walk guys.

Under 8 in the Reds game. Roarke isn't terrible and Bassit has been brilliant.

Butter- I am not a fan of the over 6Ks for Yu. He walks a TON of guys, and with the wind blowing out I could see a blow up spot for him. good luck with it.

Chief Rum 05-09-2019 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3238206)
Going over 10 in the chicago cubs game. Winds blowing out and Darvish likes to walk guys.

Under 8 in the Reds game. Roarke isn't terrible and Bassit has been brilliant.

Butter- I am not a fan of the over 6Ks for Yu. He walks a TON of guys, and with the wind blowing out I could see a blow up spot for him. good luck with it.


You convinced me in DFS. So much rain concerns in Early morning play. Starters aren't safe in DET or CLE. The CLE game could be PPD and the game in COL is a risk too (so is DET, but I think it plays). So Darvish was one of my fallbacks.

Decided to go both Bassitt (already had him) and Roark as my.pitchers. My lineup is mostly Cubs and Marlins.

Butter 05-09-2019 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3238206)
Going over 10 in the chicago cubs game. Winds blowing out and Darvish likes to walk guys.

Under 8 in the Reds game. Roarke isn't terrible and Bassit has been brilliant.

Butter- I am not a fan of the over 6Ks for Yu. He walks a TON of guys, and with the wind blowing out I could see a blow up spot for him. good luck with it.


Yes, definitely a risk that he only pitches 3 or 4 innings or something like that. He is prone to the bad outing now and then. We shall see.

Lathum 05-09-2019 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 3238207)
You convinced me in DFS. So much rain concerns in Early morning play. Starters aren't safe in DET or CLE. The CLE game could be PPD and the game in COL is a risk too (so is DET, but I think it plays). So Darvish was one of my fallbacks.

Decided to go both Bassitt (already had him) and Roark as my.pitchers. My lineup is mostly Cubs and Marlins.


I went with Bassit on fd.

Butter 05-09-2019 02:50 PM

Got the win on Darvish, but it is quite a sweat. His 4 inning line:

4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 6 BB, 7 K, 97 pitches

Luckily the Marlins can't hit.

Lathum 05-09-2019 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3238216)
Got the win on Darvish, but it is quite a sweat. His 4 inning line:

4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 6 BB, 7 K, 97 pitches

Luckily the Marlins can't hit.


Haha. I was just coming to post. I still stand by my analysis

Chief Rum 05-09-2019 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3238216)
Got the win on Darvish, but it is quite a sweat. His 4 inning line:

4 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 6 BB, 7 K, 97 pitches

Luckily the Marlins can't hit.


What those stats suggest is that Darvish had no real clue whete his pitches were going today, but they landed in the right spots enough that no one could get a solid barrell on the ball. He was effectively wild. And probably fortunate. Ans the Marlins suck.

GoldenEagle 05-09-2019 10:21 PM

I have been betting sports for the last few years. I have made a decent amount of money at it but probably not worth the amount of time I put into it. I am just a sick degen and love a good sweat, but try to get the odds as much in my favor as possible.

Bottom line is unless you have some sort of inside info it is extremely difficult to handicap (pick winners). It is not impossible, but you have to exercise extreme patience.

I prefer to line shop instead. Essentially, I am looking for inefficiencies in a bet offered by one of the books I use. You would be surprised at some of the numbers you can find sometimes. This gives me a sweat while trying to put as much as EV in my corner as possible.

I think it is also so easy to tilt in sports betting, even more so than other gambling games. It is just you and your book knowing what you are betting and you are probably never getting your money in that bad, but I have definitely spiraled out of control and seen some of my friends do so as well.

RainMaker 05-09-2019 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3237958)
I bet a lot. Being in Jersey I am about 10 minutes from a sportsbook, plus have access to several apps. I was betting a lot during football/college basketball, but now that it is baseball season I slow down and focus mostly on DFS.

I like the futures market. Went 4/5 on NBA win totals, which was a nice boost.

Do you have sirius/XM? My advice would be listen to VSIN. Lots of good info on there. Tons of good trends, etc... I also follow several sports bettors on Twitter. You just need to be able to weed through some of the nonsense.


How is betting in New Jersey been? They are thinking of legalizing it here. I would absolutely love to avoid having to continue to use some shady overseas sportsbook.

Lathum 05-09-2019 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3238255)
How is betting in New Jersey been? They are thinking of legalizing it here. I would absolutely love to avoid having to continue to use some shady overseas sportsbook.


It has been great. Generating tons of revenue and growing every month. I think there will be a decrease once surrounding states get on bosrd, but we have such a head start.

where certain states are screwing up is not allowing mobile wagering. Majority of our bets come online and from in game. Its just where the industry is headed.

Lathum 05-09-2019 10:47 PM

I just had maybe the easiest bet I have won all year. Literally bet everything in my account on the Blazers +6 for the first half. Was a live bet at the end of the first quarter.

RainMaker 05-09-2019 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3238256)
It has been great. Generating tons of revenue and growing every month. I think there will be a decrease once surrounding states get on bosrd, but we have such a head start.

where certain states are screwing up is not allowing mobile wagering. Majority of our bets come online and from in game. Its just where the industry is headed.


Yeah I don't have a ton of interest going somewhere to bet. I mean at a bar it'd be fine. But my bets are usually just throwing a few bucks down on a college football game so I have some incentive to watch.

Butter 05-10-2019 06:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3238257)
I just had maybe the easiest bet I have won all year. Literally bet everything in my account on the Blazers +6 for the first half. Was a live bet at the end of the first quarter.


I bet them +6.5 first quarter when it was like 16-7 or whatever. Small bet, but was still annoyed it didn't hit and just went to bed. Guess I should've made the 1H bet. I honestly just didn't want to stay up that late.

Lathum 05-10-2019 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3238276)
I bet them +6.5 first quarter when it was like 16-7 or whatever. Small bet, but was still annoyed it didn't hit and just went to bed. Guess I should've made the 1H bet. I honestly just didn't want to stay up that late.


Watching sports in the East Coast is the worst. It is the thing I miss most about living out West

Lathum 05-10-2019 10:24 AM

Over 8 in the cubs game. Those offenses are too good. I think the cubs righties abuse Gio.

Butter 05-10-2019 11:02 AM

I've got:

Twins -1.5, -115

Phillies ML -145
D'Backs ML -140

I'm also betting Golden State ML tonight at +260 and team total over 102. I realize that KD is KD, but I don't think they are totally helpless. Moneyline is more of a flier, I think TT has a really good shot.

Lathum 05-11-2019 07:06 AM

Nice ML call on the warriors. I had them with the points.

Lathum 05-11-2019 01:42 PM

Bet the over 10.5 in the Red sox game. Nice to have a rocking chair game.

Butter 05-13-2019 03:12 PM

Twins ML -147

O's / Yankees F5 O4.5, -125

We're riding the Twins horse until it breaks down or until others jump on the bandwagon and drive their lines to an unprofitable point. Not blindly, but when it makes sense.

Lathum 05-13-2019 06:09 PM

Went to the book at Monmouth park today to get some decent sized action down. I do it every so often if I have free time

Took a 3 team ML parlay- Astros, Yankees, Twins.- just over 3-1 odds.

Cle/ ChiSox and Oak/Sea- both to score in the first inning

Over 8.5 in Sea/ Oak and Over 8.5 in NY/Balt

Lathum 05-13-2019 06:35 PM

My over bet in the Yankee game will be voided as they scratched the starter.


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