Future of the USA?
 

I decided to make a separate thread out of the Trump thread since this topic was relevant way before him and will be long after he is dead and gone. I hope this can be a constructive thread on both sides I being moderate left leaning democrat moderate mostly in my view of trying to work with R's when it is reasonable discourse. Though we are I guess a 80 percent or more heavily left leaning forum we have a number of educated right leaning fellow Americans who should be encouraged to take part in the discussion despite our vast differences of opinion.

What do others feel will happen with the USA. Secession of Blue states eventually? 2nd hot civil war? Will we be taken down by an outside threat like China or Russian while we fight and implode amongst ourselves? Something positive instead? Constitutional convention that resolves many points of contention? Break up into 2 or three independent nations? This is not what happens this month or next but more in our lifetime or the next twenty years that time frame.

Interesting article though the author might be exaggerating a bit certainly provides some plausible futures for the USA that 5 years ago I would never have dreamed possible like a 2nd Civil War and also secession. I would say blue states would be the ones leaving this time. I think it is possible depending on the election either side could revolt. Is it likely....no I think 75-80% % of the country is too lazy, apathetic, or content to take up arms. But I also think if I asked the same question to myself 4 years or 2 I would have answered 5 % four years ago and 10% two years as to who would take up arms. I think we are rapidly trending in a bad direction.:-(
Disunited states: Could a second Civil War — and an end to the union — really happen?

Break It Up: Secession, Division, and the Secret History of America's Imperfect Union
I just picked up this book on audible and am listening to it and is a good one. Maybe others can recommended some books on the topic too.

I do feel like for all of my life there has always been that armed militia side of the right-wing, and it seems like just recently there have been more and more people willing to openly embrace those same flavor of extreme ideals on the left-wing & as a result armed conflict does seem like a much more likely possibility than at any other time in my lifetime (tho I hope that possibility is still rather low).

I am dismayed by the number of Americans that seem truly excited about the prospect of shooting their neighbors.

In 2024, 2028, 2032 and every four years after that, people will be saying "this is the most important election in the history of this country." Right-wingers will liken the Democrat nominee to Karl Marx, Left-wingers will liken the Republican nominee to Adolph Hitler and Attila the Hun.

In the end, not much will change and life will go on as usual.

Loeffler paints herself as 'more conservative than Attila the Hun' in new campaign ad | TheHill

Another great book that discusses in fascinating detail the history of the American people’s and cultures actually includes Mexican and Canada too into it. Is “American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America by Colin Woodward” it discusses them 11 unique cultures of people that were the original colonists (not just the English) of the American continent and why those are cultural identities have drove us part to where we are.

The Amazon synopsis “According to award-winning journalist and historian Colin Woodard, North America is made up of eleven distinct nations, each with its own unique historical roots. In American Nations he takes readers on a journey through the history of our fractured continent, offering a revolutionary and revelatory take on American identity, and how the conflicts between them have shaped our past and continue to mold our future. From the Deep South to the Far West, to Yankeedom to El Norte, Woodard (author of American Character: A History of the Epic Struggle Between Individual Liberty and the Common Good) reveals how each region continues to uphold its distinguishing ideals and identities today, with results that can be seen in the composition of the U.S. Congress or on the county-by-county election maps of this year's Trump versus Clinton presidential election.”

Although most of the time you are correct, there are enough 'outside' factors in the US and abroad - racial tensions, poverty, cyber propaganda, climate change, global pandemic, unemployment, geopolitics, etc - that makes this a particularly bad time to have a divided country & ineffective leadership. I'm creeping up on 40, and it feels to me at least that things are the most toxic they've been politically and socially in my lifetime at least.

Sums it up for me, with Trump being the outlier, only in the vitriol he spews will likely lead to even more violence than we have experienced as the fringe elements on both sides have never been this energized, at least in my lifetime.

As a very centrist independent I continue to have a hard time grasping how the extremes of both parties can be so unyielding in their beliefs and so unwilling to compromise in discussion or action.

I would love to see a complete breakdown of the two party system and see a process based solely on platform with no party identification, but like anything else, money and power will always influence the day.

Meanwhile most of us will go about our lives hoping the elite and the lunatic don't fuck things up too bad so we can continue to live enjoying America and the freedoms/opportunities it brings despite it's warts, while pushing for a level playing field for the marginalized. I know that is a very idealist hope for the future, but I have no energy or desire to live in a negative, contentious mindset.

In our day-to-day lives, not enough will change that most people will be able to say they notice it, I suspect.

In terms of geopolitical prestige and influence, China will overtake us as the leading international superpower very soon.

Kind of the opposite of a civil war, I read an article suggesting that the slide into total authoritarianism is something we imagine would be drastic and immediately noticeable, but effectively your day to day life would be no different, we would even protest and hold elections exactly the same as we do today, and the only difference would be that those elections would be entirely worthless theater (insert joke about current political theater here).

My wife and I have had serious talks about moving out of the USA if Trump wins again. This is not the country I love anymore.

Maybe that sounds petulant and taking my ball and going home, but when a very loud minority is allowed to just run roughshod over the political agenda, we're no better than a lot of countries out there.

The recent shift to 100% work at home for both of us has made this more than just a pipe dream. We shall see what happens. But it's not getting any better anytime soon, just seems like it's going to get worse and worse for a while.

Yeah, for all the talk of how things are always largely the same, if we elect a President for a second term based on a minority of voters, that will be entirely unique in American history and certainly seems significant.

Sunny with a chance of rain?

............you aren't alone here.

I don't think we'd actually do it (I don't think the gf would want to), but I've already lost faith in us, and have pretty bitterly turned away from nearly everyone save for close friends. My students are my saving grace, it appears.

We actually had the talk too and I have dual British/US citizenship, but a move would not be financially prudent for me with only a few years to retirement, but who knows.

I am fed up with the bullshit in our government, and disappointed in our regression as a country when it comes to unity and acceptance, but making that big a move at this point would be rash.

I think the move to more European-style government will continue. I don't think any revolution happens - nowhere near enough people really care enough. People aren't willing to disrupt their comfortable lives for things like that, I think the last 60-70 years are proof positive there. Eventually the EC, the Senate, what remains of the Bill of Rights, etc. will go the way of all flesh as more and more social engineering occurs, and the few parts remaining of the American experiment will go away.

I also think, as I've said before, that none of that really even matters. The future is global, not national. What matters is what the planet does, not what the US does, or China does, or Russia does, etc. The whole ballgame is us figuring that out before it is too late on energy issues, climate change, etc. I'm not certain a third world war, or a general collapse of civilization the likes of which hasn't been seen in the modern world doesn't happen. Probably not until late in our lifetimes or after we are gone, but it's an avoidable danger that is likely IMO.

(Appreciate the effort to set ground rules)

I'm sure many on the radical left thinks Trump is the worst, he's taken the country down the wrong path etc. Just like how many on the radical right thought Obama was the worst, taking the country down the wrong path etc. Sure one can argue "but I'm right, it's true" but in the long run, big scheme of things, and short of a nuclear war, we'll be okay.

I've organized my response into "Big Challenges" and "Really, Really Big Challenges".

I'm not hung up on a conservative SCOTUS, the pendulum will eventually swing the other way in 10-20-30 years time. We'll survive. Abortion rights may be constrained but does anyone really believe it'll become illegal? No more favorable gun law rulings? It's really Congress' job IMO. Chipping away at peoples' rights, yeah the radical right thought the same back when it was their turn.

Political extremism on both sides? I agree it is the worst that I've seen so far but every cycle it's gotten "worse" and we've survived so far. I can remember when Newt Gingrinch was the worst and here we are 25+ years later with a new level of "worst". We'll survive.

Second term for Trump? That would be pretty bad but we've survived the first 4 years. Short of a nuclear war, we'll survive the second term.

Social injustices, equal opportunities? My perspective is as bad as many here think it is, what I see is good progress over the years and also with the reassurance that demographics will continue to reduce (not eliminate) racism, bigotry. It's not being done as quickly as many want it to be, but I see a world of difference since the 80s. Wait another 20 years when the new generation really takes hold.

American Dream? Takes hard work, some luck, persistence/discipline, getting an education etc. Is it equally available to everyone? No, but that's life. Make the best lemonade out of the lemons you have. May not be the best place to live in the world according to some surveys but still the #1 country, by far, that would-be immigrants want to come if they could. Compared to developing and third world countries (which is like 3/4+ of the world), many Americans don't appreciate how good they have it (e.g. cost of goods, free Coke refills etc.), even more so if one is a minority.

* * * *

What I see as the really, really big challenges are below. They aren't all immediate problems but if not addressed, they will get to a point where we won't be able to respond effectively. Admittedly, many of the above will influence the below but so will countless other inter-dependencies, and so I chose to keep them separate.

1. Our deficit, debt, entitlements. There doesn't seem to be political will to address this issue. It'll get to a point where we are truly screwed (if not already)
2. Our competitiveness on the world stage in the long run. Simple answer is encourage as many of the world's best & brightest to immigrate to the US. I do not understand why we don't do this already.
3. China. The US needs to acknowledge that we are in the beginnings of a Cold War with China and need to plan accordingly. China is currently an economic/technology threat. It isn't currently a military threat (like the USSR during the 80's) but will be in the future. China, arguably, will be more of a formidable foe than the USSR and they play the long game.
4. Coronavirus. I assume this will be resolve by 1H 2021. But if it is not, we'll be in a world of hurt. This is obviously the #1 really, really big issue we have to deal with right now

So to sum up, I think many on this board see the current-in-the-news societal and political challenges as their big issues. They are definitely big issues but IMO not as big as my top 4, especially when talking about the long run. We are not at the point of no return yet, still time to fix issues or for them to resolve themselves through demographics or passage of time.

One of the few benefits of a plutocracy is that it quells great civil unrest.

Business is the crux of the United States and any major conflicts would be bad for business. We've killed 200,000 this year to make sure the DOW stayed up. Plenty more where that came from too.

Once a conflict in this country starts costing the wealthiest some money, they'll make sure it ends.

Agree on this. We ignore so much suffering collectively because we're comfortable, and a massive number of people who are in a "struggling to downright suffering" class are fine as long as they have black people to hate. So we're probably not going to see a revolution.

** I'd be happy to go into the long history of our wealthy class pitting poor whites against poor blacks so they don't join together to tear down the wealthy if need be.

Honestly though, there are more than enough Americans suffering for revolution, and the wage and income gaps get worse faster and faster. This is something that I don't think we're ready for now, but if we don't put the breaks on things enough to raise the standard of living for folks on the edge (think folks who lose medicaid if they get a raise, etc... putting food on the table, but one medical problem = bankruptcy, and "bettering themselves" actually causes more suffering, etc) and the middle class, in 10-15 years I wonder if we could build up to a boiling point.

I'd still bet against it, but the level of greed by the ruling class today is pretty hard to imagine.

LOL we went down similar roads at the same time. I guess I thought the wealthiest already would have - but you're probably right, they're pushing pretty hard against the edges right now, but maybe in that next 10-15 years we get a paltry minimum wage hike and medicaid expansion (this time not proposed by a black man, so the poor/republican states that need it will feel okay taking it) to keep people going just enough that the rest of us can convince them its their own fault that they're stuck and suffering and enough of them believe us that we chug along awhile longer.

Ah well.

Perhaps. But when in the last 100 years have we had a party telling their people to openly resist policies they disagree with and egging on armed protest (against COVID regulations) and armed resistance against peaceful protesters (BLM).

When it devolves into something more than "1 guy got shot in Portland", it's going to happen FAST.

This is the entirety of the Russian disinformation plan, IMO. Republicans ultimately want authoritarian rule, which is seen in their many, many attempts to position the executive as above checks or balances. Most of all, they just want to win, and will ignore any prior perceived "rule of law" to do it. Russia has aimed to weaken us as a world leader, and it remains to be seen if our reputation has already been damaged beyond the point of no return.

I really want to believe this. However, it's also been said in a lot of places that war is the most profitable enterprise of all. So I'm not certain we're not being driven towards it towards those ends.

SI

Hah! We do try to encourage it - it's what having the best university system in the world does. But we're trying hard to dismantle that. And, if you're the "best and the brightest", why would you come work in the US when, no matter how good of an upper middle class lifestyle you have, you're always one medical issue away from being bankrupt? You can go anywhere else in the "Western world" and have a more moderated variance on how successful/unsuccessful you can be (if you're the best and brightest, you know the narrative about "come to America and become a millionaire" is just that - a narrative) and not risk losing it all on a stupid health roll of the dice.

SI

IMO not even close, so much more we could do. Yes, we are getting a ton of students in Higher Ed but we also need the professionals (e.g. medical doctors from India, nurses from Philippines, PhDs from China etc.).

The H1-B process is very arduous, complex and there are limited quotas. I'm thinking, if you qualify (e.g. let's just say people with Masters/PhD, in STEM, pass a security background check etc.) you get into the fast line for a green card/naturalization.

(BTW- an additional "want" stipulation is you give up citizenship of birth country. Another discussion from a while ago re: dual citizenships).

Healthcare is obviously a major issue but don't think immigrants care too much about that initially.

Re: immigrating to other western countries. Sure they can if they are the best and brightest. My point is to make it much easier for them to come here and immigrate than to other western countries. Admittedly, western countries' best and brightest probably won't come here to the US as much as other best and brightest from developing, third world countries, and Asian countries (think of all the knowledge capital we can get from HK, Taiwan as an example). That's where the US competitive advantage is.

This is why I'm all for moving towards merit-based immigration vs family-based immigration. And even though Miller is championing merit-based, I don't view this as inherently racist (although per Brian's point there is some component of it in the decision making). Instantly help our competitiveness, hurt other countries' competitiveness (in the long term), declining birth rate, SS contributions etc.

"If the day should ever come, (may Heaven avert it,) when the affections of the people of these states shall be alienated from each other; when the fraternal spirit shall give away to cold indifference, or collisions of interest shall fester into hatred, the bands of political association will not long hold together parties no longer attracted by the magnetism of conciliated interests and kindly sympathies; and far better will it be for the people of the disunited states, to part in friendship from each other, than to be held together by constraint. Then will be the time for reverting to the precedents which occurred at the formation and adoption of the Constitution, to form again a more perfect union, by dissolving that which could no longer bind, and to leave the separated parts to be reunited by the law of political gravitation to the centre."- John Quincy Adams speech in 1839 upon the 50th anniversary of George Washington’s inauguration.

War is good for business if it isn't happening in your own backyard. And any breakdown of the country would result in them losing their biggest customer. Our economy relies a lot on this country having the standing to borrow immense amounts of money to pay defense contractors.

But beyond that, I just don't see wealthy people allowing it to happen. Are these people going to shrug their shoulders if the DOW drops 50%? Are banks just going to go with it if states break off and the old laws regulating their customers are no longer in place?

This pandemic is the closest we've seen to businesses really being hit by a stoppage in some time. And they put immense effort into keeping things open and running. I just don't see billionaires losing their shirts without putting up a big fight.

Also remember that most politicians are wealthy. Some incredibly so. While they might be fine bootlicking and playing revolutionary on Twitter, I don't think they're willing to take a personal hit to their finances for long. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler aren't giving up their personal fortunes.

I agree with this 100%, so many that are happy to wage war on foreign shores would not be so eager for that to happen here.