Back soon. Interview and then lunch.

Sorry Josh. I wish I could stick around and see if better evidence comes this way, but I doubt anyone has any big revelation to save ya. I have a final today in a little bit and I'll be stuck at school til the deadline at least.

Vote Sackattack

PS - First day of FA ran in the DKBL

I'm one of very few people who even bothered to try and look at this objectively at all today!

Your "well last time I threw out some analysis that was flawed but essentially looked right" routine didn't cut if for me.

Being the first to respond to your post, it seems to me you decided as a last-ditch effort to avoid being hanged (and revealing that we are on the right track by catching a mafia), you're coming out swinging. I was willing to give you a shot to provide me with more convincing evidence than henry's that you aren't a mafia, and you failed in that challenge. Since henry, as I've said, has NOT been at all convincing, you came up with basically a totally empty statement.

~rpi-fan

I vote for SackAttack

I wonder if this will change the strategy next game away from the tit-for-tat voting seen in this game.

Well, given that it seems Henry is confident enough to put himself on the chopping block over this, and the lack of evidence against anyone else, I'm going to Vote Sackattack . Nothing against you Sack, but I think you've been outed unless Henry is mirroring Blade's play last game.

in which case we will lynch him tommorow, and have traded 1 for 1...statistically that is a good exchange

I agree. At this point our odds will still be in our favor even if we have to lose one of our own.

Well no matter how this turns out we've traded one for one as I can't see Henry lasting more than one more night, if that. At best Henry is the informant, doesn't get killed tonight, successfully views another person, and gets killed tomorrow night giving us a 2-1.

It seems Henry has traded his own life so we can get a mobster.

VOTe SACKATTACK

the only way i was going to believe sack was if he came out and claimed to be a key role for good meaning that henry could me mafia trying to kill a key villager...he didnt, and now hes dead...but for purposes of avoiding a bandwagon my number 2 right now is ardent, solely because he seems to be the only one i can never finger..and when i do hes bad and so i am too(last game)...i just want to know what ardent is...oh well

Vote Ardent

I want you guys to think about two things.

1) Everybody is piling on voting for me. If I am what you all believe I am, does that help you guys at all to determine who the rest of the Mafia are?

2) Right now, 17 of us are left alive.

We know one of two things. Either:

2a) The Mafia can make multiple kills each night, or
2b) There is a Werewolf faction alive and well.

We know that among the 17 exists a Mafia Turncoat, working for the Mafia's ends, but showing up as a Villager on scans. Let us assume that there are either two or three Mafioso in either scenario 2a or scenario 2b. In scenario 2a) If there are two plus a turncoat, that means 14 villagers remain. If the Mafia can make multiple kills each night, then there will be two more villagers dead tomorrow morning whether I am Mafia or not. If I am innocent, then by lynching me, you will have reduced the numbers to 11 villagers plus the three remaining 'bad guy' roles. If there are three Mafia plus the Turncoat, then it becomes a 10-4 advantage.

But it doesn't even stop there. Let's say there is also a werewolf role in addition to the previously established 3/4 Mafia sympathizers, and that that's where the extra kill is coming from. Do we know that there is only one wolf? Do we know that the wolf cannot convert anybody? Without knowing that, even if there's only one kill tonight, we don't know what's going to happen from there. Will there be two wolves the next night, plus any remaining Mafioso?

Let's look at the absolute worst-case scenario here. There are three Mafia, a Mafia Turncoat, and a wolf of the remaining 17 villagers. That gives the villagers a 12-5 advantage.

When you lynch an innocent villager tonight, that advantage drops to 11-5. If there are two more kills in the night, unless one of the kills ends up being the Turncoat, then you guys will wake up tomorrow with just a 9-5 advantage and still no idea of where to turn, except possibly henry. That means you'll *have* to get somebody tomorrow, or else wake up the next day with just 6-5 advantage (assuming the wolf cannot convert anybody), and one wrong step ends the game.

I'm not going to change anybody's mind, I'm sure, but I urge you to carefully consider ALL of the dynamics here. Piling on me because of henry's claim will make it easier for the bad guys to hide, but not only that, when you lynch an innocent villager tonight, you're going to set in motion a nearly irreversible chain of events that will lead to a victory for the Mafia - unless the luck that worked for the Mafia last game works against them this time.

this would be correct if, in fact, the wolf faction and the mafia faction are working in concert with each other, which i doubt, since apparently the only people that knew about the werewolf were the priest and neon chaos. therefore, there is a possibility that the wolf did the village a favor and ate a goodfella last night, and could easily do the same tonight, greatly altering your mathmatical model

I'd love to hear how it was flawed. I nailed his strategy. The only difference was that he thought I was Mafia and that Shorty was clean, and I thought the opposite was true - which it was.

So tell me, which part of it was flawed?

True. But at the same time, we know absolutely *nothing* about the wolf's role. In a normal werewolf game, the wolves would know who was wolf and who was human - just as the Mafia know who other Mafioso are and who's at least nominally a villager. Neither group knows who their "lesser" allies (like the sorcerors and turncoats) are, but they know the main players.

Now, it's possible that it's totally double-blind, that neither wolf nor Mafia know one another. It's also possible that the groups ARE working in concert. But isn't there also the possibility that, as a wild card, the wolf knows who the villagers are and who the Mafia are, while neither group knows who the wolf is? Keep in mind we don't even know that there IS a wolf. We just suspect it.

If Neon_Chaos has already thrown us one curve by introducing the wolf element, who's to say he hasn't monkeyed with the role description to give the Wolf a little bit of a leg up? I mean, consider this: The Mafia know who the villagers are, but not who the Turncoat is. That's their advantage. The villagers can use seer roles to out the Mafia. That's their disadvantage.

The villagers have numbers. That's their advantage. They can be killed at night by either wolf or Mafia. That's their disadvantage.

What's the wolf's advantage? What does he have to give him some kind of level playing field?

I'm clean, blade.

This is an interesting point. I really wonder what the wolf's (or wolves???) role is in this game. What do they hope to do? Clear the village out of villagers and mafioso? Just villagers? Just mafioso? Its definately an interesting twist to the game.

Ok, we'll take your word for it. ;)

I wish Neon_Chaos would answer my questions I asked before:

#1: Do the wolves and mafia know who each other are?
#2: By the investigator's description, he can check people out to see if they're mafia. Can he check them out to see if they're wolves?

I think these are reasonable questions to ask and essential for us to survive.

That's the other half of it. We *don't* know that there's only one wolf. If there's two, it further changes the math I posted earlier.

When you guys lynch me tonight and discover that I'm innocent, there could be as many as five active bad guys still running around out there, as well as the turncoat. That means that right now, between active and passive bad guys, it's potentially an 11-6 advantage (12-5 if there's only one wolf). By the end of the night actions, there's the very real possibility of it being as low as 8-6.

With the wrong answers, survival may be a long shot anyway.

You should :)

wow, a lot to read through since my vote yesterday. I'm going to stick with what I had yesterday, and

vote: saldana

I was wondering where you had been.

any specific reason for your vote?

Nothing has changed my mind from the previous reasons I mentioned in my original vote.

Do you not believe a word I said? I think it is pretty obvious that you should vote for Sack if you believe me, if not you should vote for me instead.

interesting tactic

Here is what I think....


As am I....


Ok....


My thoughts exactly....


Oh, how nice, now that we question what you saw you magically throw in more information.

Anytime anyone questions what Henry has to say he "magically" has something else to add. He finds a gun in Sack's room, we think prehaps he's a cop? No, Henry comes back with the fact that he "also" found a mafia symbol. Why didn't he mention that the first time? Who knows, I don't believe him. It looks to me like he's playing like Blade did last time, and just like Blade, even though the common thought is he was a seer he lives through the night...


Gladly....Vote henry296

I'm not quite sure strongarming votes is going to get it done. Sack is obviously getting lynched at this point so I don't think Cartman's vote is so necessary. I'm not quite sure what you are doing here....

Ok I've been doing some thinking about the wisdom of Henry's move and have decided that there's a good chance he'll live through tonight (I'll present this below) and the villagers come out ahead by his having done this (assuming of course he's right and Sack is mafia). Here's why:

We know there is a protector. For the moment let's assume that there is a 50% chance that Henry will be protected tonight. I actually think it's higher, but there is the chance that he was protected last or that the protector will try and do something fancy by doing a double fake-out (a mathematically inadvisable idea btw for any of you protectors out there as there's only about a 13% chance of success of preventing a death that way). So let's go on the supposition that it's 50-50 for Henry being protected. This model assumes that the two factions can't work together, and that there is an equally likely chance that each will or will not attack Henry. The math obviously changes if this is more or less than 50% likely. This model assumes that Sack is a bad guy and it will leave two of one kind of bad guys and one of the other kind. For simplicities sake I will say there will be two mafias and one wolf (as that has been the most frequently talked about)

If Henry is protected:
The wolves could attack, and the Mafia could not: Henry lives, 8% chance the wolf dies, 92% a villager dies
The wolves could not attack and the Mafia do attack: Henry lives, 13% chance a mafia dies, 87% a villager dies
The wolves and the Mafia both attack: Henry lives
The wolves and the Mafia both do not attack: Henry lives, [this discounts the possibility of both picking the same person because it is less than 1% to happen] 80% 2 villagers die, 7% chance that 1 villager dies and the wolf dies, 12% chance that 1 villager dies and 1 mafia dies, and a 1% chance that both a wolf and a mafia die

If Henry is not protected:
The wolves could attack and the Mafia could not: Henry dies, 8% chance the wolf dies, 92% chance a villager dies
The wolves could not attack and the Mafia do attack: Henry dies, 13% chance a mafia dies, 85% a villager dies
The wolves and the Mafia both attack: Henry dies
The wolves and the Mafia both do not attack: Henry lives,
[this discounts the possibility of both picking the same person because it is less than 1% to happen] 80% 2 villagers die, 7% chance that 1 villager dies and the wolf dies, 12% chance that 1 villager dies and 1 mafia dies, and a 1% chance that both a wolf and a villager die

This means that there is overall the following probabilities:
62.5% chance Henry lives and with in this a slightly greater than 20% chance that no villager dies
37.5% chance Henry dies and with-in that a 1/3 chance that no villager dies

In conclusion this means that there is not only a good chance that Henry will live, but that either he will have have identified another bad guy or that the bad guys will knock one of each other out, or that no villager dies. This sounds to me like it's far better than the 1 for 1 trade that this sounds like at first.

Well, I know I believe myself, so I guess that means:

vote henry296.

I don't know how inviting a showdown benefits you. If I'm Mafia, making it a you-vs-me scenario doesn't help you find anybody else.

If I'm not Mafia, you're risking your own neck on a play of dubious value. Since I'm not Mafia, I have to wonder what you gain by this.

This does have me questioning Henry here. I hadn't really thought of it, but I would like to know why he didn't mention the mafia symbol the first time around and only mentioned the gun. I think we really need to re-evaluate, because if henry is playing us, and Sack is really the cop, we are going to be losing a very valuable asset to us. Does anyone else feel the same way. I'm willing to be swayed either way I guess if anyone has any more convincing evidence. But, until Henry answers why he left that out, I'm going to unvote Sackattack.

Hmm. Slip of the tongue, saying 'wolf' instead of 'Mafia,' or did Raiders know there was a wolf in the game from personal experience?

Man, I like you barkeep.

Used to playing the other games. Slip of the tongue.

Why didn't I include the mob insignia in the room... didn't think it was necessary. I figured the presence of the gun, plus the accusation of SackAttack when everyone believed me to be a seer was enough. When pressured by Raiders Army, I added more information. In fact, I didn't think that they gun might have indicated the police officer.

Again, not sure why it benefits me to lie. The only benefit of the investigator is to come completely clean when I had concrete evidence which I do now.

That's as close as I can find in the entire thread to an accusation, and that was a first-day vote. A day before you'd even have had a night action to view anybody, and yet you had already posted "gut feelings" about Blade being a good guy.

So, yeah, I voted for you. Your play seemed an odd way to behave on day one, and with nothing else really to go on, I thought that was as good a reason to cast a vote as any.

I even posted earlier today that despite that, I was going to give you the benefit of the doubt, and then you incited a bandwagon against me with information that leaked out in convenient dribs and drabs. "Oh, wait, I forgot he had a mob insignia."

My vote yesterday? Maybe not justified, but when is anything justified on the first day? Today? The later it gets, the more convinced I become that I'm in the right here.

just for informations sake the votes stand as follows through post 286

SackAttack - 12 (henry, saldana, diagamma,raiders army,mr w.,king fc, ardent, rpifan,realdeal, mr bug, barkeep, lathum)
henry - 2 (dubb, sackattack)
ardent - 1 (blade)
saldana - 1 (cartman)

votes outstanding : pennywise

Looks like its Sack, I really HOPE that Henry is right and Sack is either Mafia or a Werewolf, but I'm not too convinced at this point. Just doesn't make sense to me as far a strategy goes to reveal yourself this early, but I'm not going to pressure people into voting Henry b/c all we have right now is Henry's accusation, you either believe it or you don't.

I'm kind of resigned to it at this point, with 40 minutes 'til the deadline. It means we're going to be down another two, possibly three villagers come tomorrow morning, which will put the count at probably something like 8 or 9 villagers, one Turncoat, three Mafia, and at least one wolf, possibly two.

This game could be over by Saturday morning. I'd hoped we'd put up a better showing this time than we did last time. :(

he claims i was night zero, so that kinda kills your point sackattack

You're right, that could have been a possibility. I misread the night zero post. Not having had a major role yet, I'm used to night actions being the ones we see - the kills - so I just kind of glossed over the night zero instructions.

I still think henry's up to something, but his claim to have viewed you makes more sense now than it did an hour ago.

i dont believe him entirely, but he got me right and he is sticking his head out there...now i feel you are an excellent player sack, i respect you as much as almost everyone in these games...but on this one im going to go with henry...if im wrong, i messed up and will do better next time...but ive won half the games ive played in, and hope this is another W

Doesn't mean he isn't playing at something. Remember last time around you thought you were protecting me and exposing Shorty, even though it went the other way. I'm not suggesting you're Mafia, but I can't discount the possibility that henry is lifting a page from your book, either.


Thanks. It's mutual.


That means you've also been *wrong* at some point in half the games you've played in. Do you want to gamble this one on a coin flip? :)

Night 0 is variable... sometimes (as in this game) seers and the like are allowed to do their thing to give a little bit of a basis for the action on day 1. I tend to be in favor of it, since it makes things less random, if only marginally so.

i agree entirely with your first comment, and the third..hence my vote for ardent and not you or henry..im not sure either way on you, so why let one side win...its already over, but let it be known i voted for ardent and not sack or henry...henry got me right which makes me believe him, but he has less then convinced me on sack..hence my vote for ardent..wish it was different, and sorry if hes wrong sack...looks like if were wrong we are already all but done for

If nothing changes in the next five minutes, we probably are.

I'm headed home for some dinner, so if I don't return to find henry swinging, I'll just say:

"Good luck, and win one for the Gipper."

Or something like that.

SackAttack - henry296, saldana, digamma, Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday, kingfc22, ardent enthusiast, RPI-Fan, RealDeal, MrBug708, Barkeep49, Lathum
henry296 - dubb93, SackAttack
ardent enthusiast - blade6119
saldana - cartman

You all gather around SackAttack, who says that he's no part of any Mafia! As you get ready to string him up... he starts runnning away! You chase him all the way towards one of the deep wells in the Village. He stands precariously on the edge, and has a gun pointed to his chin.

"You're all idiots! There's some wierd shit going on... we're all getting eaten... and all you care about is nabbing Mafioso!? If I die, I die by my own way!"

Sack then turns the gun at henry296...

"Not before I kill you, you motherf-"

A bullet penetrates deep into henry296's skull. He slumps dead on the ground. SackAttack then turns the gun on himself. SackAttack pulls the trigger. His body slumps backwards and falls into the well. You all head towards his room and look around... you find a seal of some sort, perhaps Mafioso? You then decide that SackAttack was Mafia!

You look around henry296's room... and find a ton of stuff regarding mafia et al. henry296 was the Investigator!

1. kingfc22
2. Blade6119
3. Vince - ???, killed Night 1
4. SackAttack - Mafia Lieutenant, lynched Day 2
5. MrBug708
6. dubb93
7. ardent enthusiast
8. raiders army
9. Lathum
10. saldana
11. Mr. Wednesday
12. henry296 - Investigator, killed by Mafia Lieutenant Day 2
13. digamma
14. cartman
15. RealDeal
16. Barkeep49
17. Bek - Villager, lynched Day 1
18. pennywisesb
19. RPI-Fan
20. SnDvls - ???, killed Night 1

You feel a bit vindicated... it is, however, Night (2) once again...

NIGHT (2) HAS BEGUN! KINDLY SEND IN YOUR NIGHT ACTIONS BY 9AM EDT. :)

YES!!! Nice work, everybody. Kudos to henry296, especially.

SackAttack, valiant effort--well played.

Sack,

Nothing personal. I figured I would view the person that voted for me. It had the most logic other than a random person.

Good work henry!!

I hope you live through the night