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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

whomario 06-03-2020 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3284353)
I saw a chart that had ten states with over 70% usage of ICU beds right now. Maryland was well over 90%.

And these are all pre-protest cases.


And presumably with lots of procedures deferred or patients treated in normal beds that would normally be done in ICU ? (unless it is done vastly different in the US, ICU beds are also used after lots of procedures). And you can't switch those beds easily between Covid and non-covid as all those other patients still need urgent attention but also need to be shielded.

And the same problem goes for medical personnel that a) can't really switch back and forth and also Covid needs a lot of personell in the ICU. In some regions in Germany they were stretched extremely thin despite being at less capacity than usual pre-covid. If we get to 60% there would be Trouble in most hospitals ... Partly though because we inflated the number of ICU beds massively without acounting for the chronic lack of nurses and medical technicians (like anaesthesiology technicians) and because it'd mean we got worse at keeping them from progressing to that stage. (Treating early prevents a lot of that)

Atocep 06-03-2020 06:26 PM

ACP Journals

While we're learning that Covid may not be as fatal as initially feared, we are learning that we still don't know much about it. We're still in a state of "we don't know what we don't know".

One of the key points for those that don't want to read the article:

Quote:

The finding that 54% of the 76 asymptomatic persons on the Diamond Princess who were examined by computed tomography appeared to have significant subclinical abnormalities in their lungs is disturbing. Further research will be required to confirm this potentially important finding, taking into account possible confounding factors, including the age of passengers aboard the Diamond Princess. If confirmed, this finding suggests that the absence of symptoms might not necessarily mean the absence of harm. The subclinical nature of the finding raises the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 infection causes subtle deficits in lung function that might not be immediately apparent.

Thomkal 06-04-2020 01:14 PM

So I was out and about today doing a pickup from Walmart (where I got everything but one item, and they still didn't have the TP we normally get) and then we headed across the street to Chick'a'fil to grab lunch from the drive-thru.

Let me tell you they win the "prize" for best organized for the virus. Everyone wearing masks and I think gloves. The drive thru is always very busy-so now they have it extended it to three lanes with people there to direct traffic, take orders,pay (with a plastic container to put money/credit card back and forth, then at the takeout window they have more people to bring your order out in another plastic container and direct you to where you can wait to get out of their parking lot without interfering to much with people coming in. Very efficient and thoughtful.

rjolley 06-04-2020 06:07 PM

Yeah, I agree. Chick-Fil-A has done a good job. They also do a good job during their rush hours. I hate the rush hour crowds, but they've found ways to manage the wait time.

RainMaker 06-04-2020 06:22 PM

I noticed the same at my local Chick-Fil-A. But they've always been very efficient even before this.

Culvers has been great too but not sure if everyone has those.

Edward64 06-04-2020 07:56 PM

Wow. If true, congratulations NYC.

NYC reports no new coronavirus deaths for first time since mid-March
Quote:

The Big Apple marked a major turning point in its battle against the coronavirus pandemic Wednesday with no new confirmed deaths from COVID-19 for the first time since March 12.

“In the face of extraordinary challenges, New Yorkers have gone above and beyond to keep each other safe throughout the crisis,” said City Hall spokeswoman Avery Cohen.

“With hope on the horizon, we will continue to do everything we can to reopen safely without losing sight of the progress we’ve made,” Cohen said.

There were zero additional deaths between Tuesday and Wednesday, according to the city’s Health Department data that is reported with a 24-hour lag.

Butter 06-04-2020 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjolley (Post 3284590)
Yeah, I agree. Chick-Fil-A has done a good job. They also do a good job during their rush hours. I hate the rush hour crowds, but they've found ways to manage the wait time.


I do Curbside at rush hours. You will get through 3x as fast as waiting in the wrapped around the building drive thru line. Pro tip

rjolley 06-04-2020 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3284635)
I do Curbside at rush hours. You will get through 3x as fast as waiting in the wrapped around the building drive thru line. Pro tip


They don't offer curbside here. I will go in if the line is too long.

Butter 06-04-2020 10:11 PM

What the crap

QuikSand 06-05-2020 08:24 AM

We in MD are moving along with our re-opening. Celebrating the great progress that we are down to 9% positive tests.

Wait, that's still among the highest in the country and far short of accepted guidelines? Fuck it, we want our haircuts and endless breadsticks.

sterlingice 06-05-2020 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3284725)
We in MD are moving along with our re-opening. Celebrating the great progress that we are down to 9% positive tests.

Wait, that's still among the highest in the country and far short of accepted guidelines? Fuck it, we want our haircuts and endless breadsticks.


But, hey, Hogan put a couple of guards around his PPE and did well the first few weeks so it's all good.

SI

stevew 06-05-2020 08:47 AM

If we’re talking about restaurants, nearly every drive thru in my town sucks. Those suicide type drive thrus should be illegal. If I’m dissatisfied with how long it takes, I should be able to leave. Instead of sitting 20-30 minutes, trapped, with my car in idle.

JPhillips 06-05-2020 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3284725)
haircuts and endless breadsticks.


My new business plan.

albionmoonlight 06-05-2020 10:43 AM

In hindsight, I have more respect for the states/cities that said "Fuck it, we're reopening" than the ones that said "We are establishing metrics, and criteria, and benchmarks and we will let the science guide us" and then just reopened anyway.

whomario 06-05-2020 10:43 AM

Not meant as a "This Virus is so bad, let's all stay in our room for a year !" Post, but i thought that this warrants mention as we move into the phase where more and more people will wonder if any of the hassle was necessary (in germany more so than the US or even UK, admittedly)

While absolutely a ton less young people get seriously ill or even die, this also has a lot to do with this being the case in general (duh, young people die less frequently) and the risk rises disproportionally with age and/or other health issues no matter what diseases you are adding to the mix.

The US as a whole, despite only a small part being heavily affected before measures were taken in time, in Week 15 of this year had 20% more people aged 25-44 die than in any other week, not merely above an average, since the start of 2015 and 28% more than in any week between 12 and 20 (relevant time frame due to general trend being lower there every year than before or after. Basically definitely post-flu/Winter and pre-heat/summer) since 2015.
And there are 7 weeks already during this pandemic where more people in that age group have died than in any week in the 5 years prior. (and death numbers for 2020 are still not complete for any of those weeks, 15 included)
Might even be higher if one would only take natural causes, but the CDC does not have that easily available in combination with age group.

And of course the total numbers of surplus deaths are still only in the high 100s (young people rarely die)

Other age groups:

45-64 = 14 % / 30%.
65-74 = 24% / 42%
75 - 84 = 21% / 39 %
85+ = 8,5 % / 38 % (bad flu seasons also disproportionally harm the most vulnerable)

* looking at those same increases for NYC is going to ruin your whole day ...

sterlingice 06-05-2020 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3284754)
In hindsight, I have more respect for the states/cities that said "Fuck it, we're reopening" than the ones that said "We are establishing metrics, and criteria, and benchmarks and we will let the science guide us" and then just reopened anyway.


YEEHAW! GO, MY TEXAS HOMELAND!

SI

thesloppy 06-05-2020 12:34 PM

Meanwhile in Portland we're at like 62 covid deaths all-time and our county hasn't even submitted a plan/date for reopening yet.

https://katu.com/news/local/multnoma...-1-application

Brian Swartz 06-05-2020 12:44 PM

Michigan is mostly reopening on the 8th. A lot of social-distancing requirements, restaurants at half capacity, etc. I think we'll survive this summer fine. All bets are off after that.

molson 06-05-2020 12:46 PM

I had my first patio bar beers yesterday, that was pretty nice.

I think the social awkwardness aspect of going out will keep me from going out much though. Every place has their own rules and if they're not clearly stated on the facebook page, you have to call in. The place yesterday, they wanted people to call in 10-15 minutes before you got there, and then they'd tell you if there were any tables available. But you had to call another time before that to know that was their policy.

Plus there's a dynamic that if there's only a few people there, it's OK and everyone's being responsible, but then if a few more people arrive when you're there (which is not in your control), then suddenly things are "out of control" and you risk being socially shamed.

So for introverts, there's a lot of social capital you have to spend just to patronize these businesses.

We are going to venture out to Tillamook County on the Oregon coast in a few weeks though. I guess they're doing a county-by-county approach in Oregon. I've been closely monitoring the facebook pages of our usual haunts there and they are open and eager for business (and showing off their outdoor patios and takeout options), unlike Portland.

stevew 06-05-2020 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3284737)
My new business plan.


you're missing the 4XB tactical gear though.

thesloppy 06-05-2020 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3284779)
We are going to venture out to Tillamook County on the Oregon coast in a few weeks though. I guess they're doing a county-by-county approach in Oregon. I've been closely monitoring the facebook pages of our usual haunts there and they are open and eager for business (and showing off their outdoor patios and takeout options), unlike Portland.


For a while there were definitely whole coastal towns that were definitely not eager for the influx of business/tourists, but I think that has changed.

stevew 06-05-2020 01:13 PM

My wife didn't get to go visit her parents over Easter/Spring Break so we're going next week. She's been stuck in endless school, having to show up in person to do remote type work because #clusterfuck

molson 06-05-2020 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thesloppy (Post 3284783)
For a while there were definitely whole coastal towns that were definitely not eager for the influx of business/tourists, but I think that has changed.


Yup, I've been trying to monitor that general mood as best I can. I know in April there was an understandable anti-tourist sentiment. The Old Oregon Smokehouse in Rockaway Beach for example, opened early, weeks and weeks ago, but then closed again because they didn't realize that so many out-of-towners would be there and they didn't want to encourage that. Of course this was back when the hotels in the area were closed.

May 29 seems to have been a significant day where most of the hotels and dining establishments in Tillamook and Clatsop Counties were opened and soliciting general business, and, when the general sentiment around there seemed to be "let's open up but with restrictions", and where the local businesses and city social media pages seem to be inviting people back.

It could change and I could cancel up to the last minute. (and we're still several weeks out). But, we plan on being responsible and keeping to ourselves as much as possible and I'm inclined to go for it.

Edward64 06-05-2020 11:09 PM

Not sure I believe this is accurate.

Any of you wash fruits & vegetables in bleach before eating?

403 Forbidden

Quote:

In all, they surveyed 502 US adults and used statistical weighting to make it representative of the country’s population. The findings—published Friday in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report—are stunning.

Overall, 60 percent said they were doing more cleaning and disinfecting amid the pandemic and 39 percent admitted to doing at least one non-recommended cleaning practice the CDC considers high risk.

The most common risky practice was washing fruits, vegetables, and other foods in bleach solutions. A total of 19 percent said they did this. From there, 18 percent said they used household cleaners—not hand soap—to wash their hands and/or other body parts. Ten percent said they misted themselves with household cleaners and disinfecting products.[

sterlingice 06-05-2020 11:21 PM

Nope. But I also made fun of some dufus who said: "And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning?"

Meanwhile, there were others who were parsing this to say he didn't really mean it like that or it was a misspeak, etc.

SI

rjolley 06-05-2020 11:22 PM

That's how you get the disinfectant inside. Duh.

Damn, SI beat me to it. :)

thesloppy 06-06-2020 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3284787)

It could change and I could cancel up to the last minute. (and we're still several weeks out). But, we plan on being responsible and keeping to ourselves as much as possible and I'm inclined to go for it.


Hope it works out for you! It's lovely out there.

molson 06-06-2020 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thesloppy (Post 3284889)
Hope it works out for you! It's lovely out there.


Thanks, I love it there, we've gone somewhere on the coast in that vicinity every year for the last 10 years. Before that I went to law school in Eugene and got out there a bunch, that's when I fell in love with it.

whomario 06-06-2020 04:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3284886)
Not sure I believe this is accurate.

Any of you wash fruits & vegetables in bleach before eating?

403 Forbidden


Well, the massive increase in cases needing medical attentionnis definitely true:

Error Page

Quote:

The AAPCC’s National Poison Data System, which pools information from poison control centers countrywide, saw a spike of 122% in reported cases of accidental poisonings related to disinfectants, a 77% jump for bleach and a 56% increase for hand sanitizer.

This is an increase over last month, which also saw a year-over-year jump related to cleaning products—94% for disinfectants, 59% for bleach and 75% for hand sanitizer

While this shows people are capable being frightened, dumb or careless (a lot might be kids playing around with new stuff lying around) without any help , it would be nice to have a President tell people to stop being stupid, not egg them on when others have tried to keep people from doing it (there were quite a few big news Outlets putting out warnings in April and also telling people they don't need to go Overboard as that is not how the virus spreads)

ISiddiqui 06-06-2020 08:41 AM

This is a new CDC page on hospital capacity by state:

COVID-19 Module Data Dashboard – Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity Pathway | NHSN | CDC

The ICU bed map is really concerning to me living in the South. Looks like Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee have over 70% of ICU beds full. (I do wish they'd say how many of those ICU beds are occupied by Covid patients as they have for all inpatient beds)

whomario 06-06-2020 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3284910)
This is a new CDC page on hospital capacity by state:

COVID-19 Module Data Dashboard – Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity Pathway | NHSN | CDC

The ICU bed map is really concerning to me living in the South. Looks like Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee have over 70% of ICU beds full. (I do wish they'd say how many of those ICU beds are occupied by Covid patients as they have for all inpatient beds)


I think 70% as such is not unnormally high, but of course 70% pre-covid is not the same as 70% now:
1) because a lot of beds were added, but it is easier to add beds than medical personnel.
2) ICU needs more Staff per Patient by default and covid more than normal for longer per patient.
3) ICU staff needs to be more highly trained than regular staff, so again you have a big problem increasing staff easily.
4) With it being an (highly) infectious disease you have less options to reorganise beds and staff as demands change. So you depend on keeping a decent portion empty for both types of patients and with the average covid patient needing that bed for longer you end up prioritising that by default.
5) There is actually a lower need for ventilators than first thought or rather: You should aim to avoid having to use them by treating as early as you can with non-invasive oxygen therapy (there are, at least as i understand it 2 possible variants before ventilators). But of course those patients also need to be treated seperate from all other groups of patients.

This is mostly from the german POV based on people involved that are making clear that the problem is not solved by adding ICU beds and Equipment. But i figure the basic parameters apply to the US situation as well.

ISiddiqui 06-06-2020 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario (Post 3284913)
This is mostly from the german POV based on people involved that are making clear that the problem is not solved by adding ICU beds and Equipment. But i figure the basic parameters apply to the US situation as well.


You are correct. My friend who is a hospital administrator indicates that is a major challenge - ICU requires far more training.

Edward64 06-06-2020 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario (Post 3284898)
While this shows people are capable being frightened, dumb or careless (a lot might be kids playing around with new stuff lying around) without any help , it would be nice to have a President tell people to stop being stupid, not egg them on when others have tried to keep people from doing it


Can't argue with this.

Brian Swartz 06-06-2020 11:24 AM

An interesting local observation; I have a relative who works in the Traverse City area, which due it's location on Lake Michigan, casinos, etc. is one of the state's biggest tourist hotspots. While they kept it quiet, apparently they were at one point within a ventilator or two of running out during the first of the first outbreak. That's during the quiet season. Now that things are opening up they are getting an influx of tourist travel, some of which are apparently saying brilliant things like 'I'm so glad that we don't have to worry about masks, distancing, etc. up here since nobody in this area has the virus'.

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works. *facepalm*

QuikSand 06-06-2020 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3284933)
Now that things are opening up they are getting an influx of tourist travel, some of which are apparently saying brilliant things like 'I'm so glad that we don't have to worry about masks, distancing, etc. up here since nobody in this area has the virus'.

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works. *facepalm*




Yup, that's how this works. Virus is canceled.

Izulde 06-06-2020 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3284959)


Yup, that's how this works. Virus is canceled.


I live right by one of the opened casinos. Needless to say, I am not happy about this and am staying cloistered.

Lathum 06-06-2020 03:07 PM

The comments are, interesting.

QuikSand 06-07-2020 07:12 PM

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...ndemic/612796/

albionmoonlight 06-07-2020 08:39 PM

Brazil stops releasing Covid-19 death toll and wipes data from official site | World news | The Guardian

Edward64 06-08-2020 06:42 AM

An article about Remdesivir and production challenges. The article was US specific and I was wondering how/if other countries were getting the drug?

The second link is from May 12 and essentially Gilead has licensed, royalty free (for now) the production of Remdesivir to 5 generic pharmas for 127 countries.

So that is obvious a class act but (1) there are 195 countries so what about the rest (2) I assume there are some countries that are being hit hard by the coronavirus that won't get as much Remdesivir as they would like because the US is "hogging" it all right now.

Not blaming Gilead as these decisions likely delve into politics and other things beyond their control but still a conundrum.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/healt...rus/index.html
Quote:

The US government's current supply of remdesivir, the only drug known to work against Covid-19, will run out at the end of the month, Dr. Robert Kadlec, a US Department of Health and Human Services official, told CNN.

The government's last shipment of the drug will go out the week of June 29. Gilead Sciences, the company that makes the drug, is ramping up to make more, but it's unclear how much will be available this summer.
:
:
Last month, the US Food and Drug Administration gave emergency authorization for remdesivir, an intravenous antiviral medication studied to treat Ebola but now used on hospitalized Covid patients. While not a blockbuster drug, a study shows it shaves four days off a hospital stay, from 15 to 11 days.
:
:
Kadlec said Gilead has given a "general range" of product delivery for July and August, which then "significantly expands beginning in September, October, and through the fall as they kind of open the spigot of their production and processing."

Gilead has offered few public details but has said it plans to have more than 500,000 treatment courses available by October, and more than a million by December.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/remd...countries.html
Quote:

Gilead Sciences has struck a licensing agreement with five generic drugmakers to make antiviral drug remdesivir for 127 countries, not including the United States, the company announced Tuesday.

Drugmakers Mylan, Cipla, Ferozsons Laboratories, Hetero Labs and Jubilant Lifesciences will manufacture remdesivir for distribution in “low-income and lower-middle-income countries, as well as several upper-middle- and high-income countries” that face health-care obstacles amid the coronavirus pandemic, the company said.

The deal is “royalty-free” until the World Health Organization says the Covid-19 outbreak is no longer a global health crisis or “until a pharmaceutical product other than remdesivir or a vaccine is approved to treat or prevent Covid-19, whichever is earlier,” the company said.

Brian Swartz 06-08-2020 12:58 PM

You know there's a forum thread saying 'Why don't people just post about Trump here'?

Re: Remdesivir, yeah I think there's no way we have enough for everyone who needs it or anywhere close, but the more who can get it the better obviously. We won't do this, but I'd favor limiting how much we give out now so we can handle the second wave in the fall better.

QuikSand 06-08-2020 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3285157)
You know there's a forum thread saying 'Why don't people just post about Trump here'?


You're right, my mistake, will remedy.

cuervo72 06-08-2020 01:32 PM

I never quite understood on what authority the "no political/Trump talk" in this thread was established, when dealing with the virus has been, well, a political/Trump endeavor. Is it because one non-admin said so?

Brian Swartz 06-08-2020 01:38 PM

It's been by general agreement because otherwhise it would have degraded into a political snipe-fest a long time ago. A lot, I would say most aspects of the pandemic aren't inherently political. Obviously some parts are but my opinion is this thread might as well not exist if we're going to turn it into that. I've done a couple posts here I probably shouldn't have as well, but I try to keep political comments out of it since there really is another thread for that.

Butter 06-08-2020 02:06 PM

Interesting

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asym...-who-says.html

albionmoonlight 06-08-2020 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuervo72 (Post 3285165)
I never quite understood on what authority the "no political/Trump talk" in this thread was established, when dealing with the virus has been, well, a political/Trump endeavor. Is it because one non-admin said so?


Because this thread would become a Trump thread otherwise.

And it still serves some value as a place to put non-Trump information about the virus.

It's a fuzzy line, but I like it.

Arles 06-08-2020 02:34 PM

So I've been on the side of "let's responsibly re-open things with guidelines and see how it goes". And, in many places, it was OK through the end of May (some cases were increasing - but hospital/ICU capacity was still good).

I also was on the side of letting everyone protest (safely where possible) because of the importance of the issue. Again, cases will probably increase - but that's OK given the situation at hand.

Now, I see everyone freaking out in Arizona because cases are way up because we had thousands of people protesting the past week across most major cities. There are people on my FB feed who were literally out protesting last Wednesday in a crowd of thousands and are now yelling at people who took their two kids to a restaurant without masks (you'd have better luck wrestling a tiger than keeping a mask on my 7-year old - esp while eating).

So, either you are OK with protesting and people going out to safely resume their lives (and the cost of Covid involved) or you are not. This is more just a rant from my part - but I'm not sure I can handle the redneck "Hey, I can go to the bar with my 40 buddies but you can't be out there wearing a mask with 100 other people protesting 'cause of Covid" or the leftist "I can't believe restaurants and bars are opening up to small crowds, but save a place for me at the town square in our BLM protest tonight with 2,000 other people". We have to have some form of consistency here (or everyone will go crazy).

Thomkal 06-08-2020 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3285175)
Because this thread would become a Trump thread otherwise.

And it still serves some value as a place to put non-Trump information about the virus.

It's a fuzzy line, but I like it.


Yep its nice to be able to talk about everything but Trump and his reaction to the virus.

Speaking of which, got my first haircut since the virus precautions went in place today. My usual spot at Walmart. They took my temp (first time ever) and had the salon area chained off to customers so they could control traffic flow through it. All stylists had masks.

And as a bonus, once I got my haircut, went and checked on TP and Napkins. Slowly getting more TP in stock (though not the Charmin we use), but they finally did have some Bounty Napkins-hooray! :)

ISiddiqui 06-08-2020 02:36 PM

Though, the protests this past week probably wouldn't show up in most cases yet. Incubation period is slightly longer than that. I wonder if this is Memorial Day numbers showing up?

Butter 06-08-2020 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles (Post 3285180)
So, either you are OK with protesting and people going out to safely resume their lives (and the cost of Covid involved) or you are not. This is more just a rant from my part - but I'm not sure I can handle the redneck "Hey, I can go to the bar with my 40 buddies but you can't be out there wearing a mask with 100 other people protesting 'cause of Covid" or the leftist "I can't believe restaurants and bars are opening up to small crowds, but save a place for me at the town square in our BLM protest tonight with 2,000 other people". We have to have some form of consistency here (or everyone will go crazy).


Or, hear me out, a lot of people found the protests just as life and death important as protecting themselves from Covid.

I mean if you want to make the case that eating out with a 7 year old = protests in an attempt to generate monumental societal change, then go for it.


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