Front Office Football Central

Front Office Football Central (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//index.php)
-   Off Topic (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//forumdisplay.php?f=6)
-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (http://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

Edward64 02-03-2020 09:00 PM

COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)
 
NYT and WP are reporting this will be a Pandemic.

Doesn't feel like a Pandemic aka in the movies, but wanted to start this thread to get some thoughts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/h...mic-china.html
Quote:

The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.
:
:
The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading more like influenza, which is highly transmissible, than like its slow-moving viral cousins, SARS and MERS, scientists have found.

“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”
:
:
In the last three weeks, the number of lab-confirmed cases has soared from about 50 in China to more than 17,000 in at least 23 countries; there have been more than 360 deaths.

But various epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases is 100,000 or even more. While that expansion is not as rapid as that of flu or measles, it is an enormous leap beyond what virologists saw when SARS and MERS emerged.

When SARS was vanquished in July 2003 after spreading for nine months, only 8,098 cases had been confirmed. MERS has been circulating since 2012, but there have been only about 2,500 known cases.
:
:
The biggest uncertainty now, experts said, is how many people around the world will die. SARS killed about 10 percent of those who got it, and MERS now kills about one of three.

The 1918 “Spanish flu” killed only about 2.5 percent of its victims — but because it infected so many people and medical care was much cruder then, 20 million to 50 million died.

By contrast, the highly transmissible H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic of 2009 killed about 285,000, fewer than seasonal flu normally does, and had a relatively low fatality rate, estimated at .02 percent.

The mortality rate for known cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has been running about 2 percent, although that is likely to drop as more tests are done and more mild cases are found.



Groundhog 02-03-2020 09:38 PM

I think it's still a bit of a beat-up at this stage - early signs have me thinking that the steps China took this time have prevented what could have been much worse. Currently 1 death outside of mainland China (HK), and although the numbers coming out of China are murky and filtered through the state media lens, I think it's safe to say that the overall health and living conditions of some of those contracting the disease also played a part in the mortality rates within the region.

RendeR 02-03-2020 10:27 PM

Based on current info less than 2% die from this and all of those have been from an underlying health condition, not the disease itself.

Its a really nasty new "ick" best not to let it spread, but not panic worthy.

tarcone 02-03-2020 10:31 PM

Or is it China testing weapons of mass destruction? Hunan, which borders Wuhan, has killed thousands of chickens after a bird flu break out.

Conspiracy theory for the win.

Edward64 02-03-2020 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3263875)
Or is it China testing weapons of mass destruction? Hunan, which borders Wuhan, has killed thousands of chickens after a bird flu break out.

Conspiracy theory for the win.


Something I read somewhere proposed a theory that China knew this was going to get bad and that's why they did the Phase 1 with Trump. Not sure the timing works though.

AlexB 02-04-2020 07:27 AM

Coronavirus outbreak not yet pandemic - World Health Organization - BBC News

Edward64 02-04-2020 10:07 AM

MSM is putting some perspective on this e.g. comparing it to the flu.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-...ronavirus.html



China stock markets were down 8% but rebounded 1%+ today. US stock markets have (so far) rebounded pretty well too. Wonder how much will this affect China's economy and impact global companies with some/most their supply chain in China.

Edward64 02-05-2020 11:23 PM

Another graphic to put things into perspective. The chart is as of Jan 31 and I believe the infected nos. are much greater now.

FWIW, I never realized the H1N1 "swine flu" was that widespread and cause that many deaths.

How The New Coronavirus Compares to Past Zoonotic Outbreaks, in One Simple Chart


So what I don't get is - unless I'm mistaken, the drastic measures of city(ies) quarantine, restriction on border crossing, and flight embargoes didn't happen this extensively on the other outbreaks ... so why on this one?

Groundhog 02-06-2020 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3264199)
So what I don't get is - unless I'm mistaken, the drastic measures of city(ies) quarantine, restriction on border crossing, and flight embargoes didn't happen this extensively on the other outbreaks ... so why on this one?


I believe the number of cases would be considerably higher if we had the true figures in China, but I don't believe the mortality rate would be much higher. I think it's good practice to implement strong/harsh controls (travel bans/quarantines/etc) any time something like this rears its head, but I feel like one of the few people I know who isn't actively panicked by the whole thing.

PilotMan 02-06-2020 04:21 AM

Flight embargoes as you call them are not the result over worry about spreading these virus inasmuch as it's about bookings that have fallen off a cliff. Initially anyway. Even coming from Tokyo yesterday I had nearly 100 seats empty. Two weeks ago, that safe flight maybe only had 8 empty. It's so much worse going to China. It's going to cost a fortune in lost revenue.

Edward64 02-06-2020 05:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Groundhog (Post 3264202)
I believe the number of cases would be considerably higher if we had the true figures in China, but I don't believe the mortality rate would be much higher.


There is an article floating out there where Tencent had posted higher infections and deaths before lowering them match up with the official tally. Agree that it is probably higher and that mortality rate probably won't go up that much higher (unless there is a massive cover-up which I guess is possible).

Another article on folks quarantined on cruise ships. Assuming they are actually stuck in their rooms vs going down the waterslides and enjoying a nice seafood buffet ... must suck.

I am also surprised that China markets are going back up after their 8% decline on Mon. I can understand the US markets' stability/rise because it hasn't really hit us and/or we are more confident in being able to meet the challenge if it does come over, but China's industries must really be hit right now. I did read that Chinese government is spending or allocating $180B or stabilize the market (but that number sounds small to me).

Edward64 02-08-2020 07:34 AM

I was wondering how the folks quarantined on the cruise ships were doing. Here's and article, he posts his meals on twitter (doesn't look too bad for "prison" food).

It must suck for those in the interior without windows.

Man tweets food reviews from ship quarantined for coronavirus

Galaril 02-08-2020 08:01 AM

Well my company a Fortune 50 multinational has suspended all travel to from Asia Pacific as of Friday and thee are quite a few large companies doing the same. This is certainly going to affect revenue eventually.

Lathum 02-08-2020 08:09 AM

American Citizen Diagnosed With Coronavirus Dies in China - WSJ

Edward64 02-13-2020 09:21 PM

Pretty much still a jumble mess of confusion and FUD. Read WHO team is on the ground in China but not getting cooperation supposedly, China firing some big wigs in the area, China stats not accurate and/needed to be redefined etc.

From the CDC. Yeah, I'm okay to restrict to/from, require quarantine etc. until we get a better handle on this (and no, it's not racist to do this).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/healt...ntv/index.html
Quote:

As an outbreak of a novel coronavirus has swept through Hubei province, China, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been preparing for its worst case scenario -- a widespread outbreak of illnesses in the United States.

"Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told CNN's Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday.

"We don't know a lot about this virus," he said. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."
:
:
While more research is needed to fully understand the virus, Redfield told Gupta that the CDC has focused on surveillance to track cases and containment strategies to slow possible progression of the virus in the United States. Slowing progression gives more time for researchers to work on developing and testing a vaccine and antiviral drugs for this novel coronavirus. Currently, there is no known cure for the virus

Groundhog 02-14-2020 05:45 AM

Given the mortality rate sits somewhere between 0.5 - 4% outside of Hubei province in China, the best cure for the virus seems to be recovering from the virus.

JediKooter 02-14-2020 09:23 AM

Should I be fueling up the Zombie Survival All Terrain Vehicle?

Ben E Lou 02-14-2020 09:43 AM

I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.

Edward64 02-14-2020 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JediKooter (Post 3265039)
Should I be fueling up the Zombie Survival All Terrain Vehicle?


Pics or I'm calling BS.

(But yes, get ready !!)

JediKooter 02-14-2020 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3265043)
Pics or I'm calling BS.

(But yes, get ready !!)


I'm still waiting for the financing to come through. Going to be cutting it close.

Kodos 02-14-2020 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3265042)
I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.


Wow.


JPhillips 02-14-2020 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3265042)
I can't muster up any anger at Jim Bakker over this. We know who he is. If you're foolish enough at this point to send him a dime, that's on you.


I get this, but he's mostly looking to scam lonely old people, so fuck him.

tarcone 02-14-2020 12:05 PM

Who knew there were literal snake oil salesmen still running around. I get the con artists, but this goes back to the old west.

JPhillips 02-16-2020 01:46 PM

I read that estimates are that China has twice the population of the US under lockdown now.

NobodyHere 02-16-2020 02:53 PM

At least this isn't as bad as Birdemic

PilotMan 02-16-2020 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3265074)
Who knew there were literal snake oil salesmen still running around. I get the con artists, but this goes back to the old west.


You should hear what his kid has to say about him.

Edward64 02-16-2020 05:18 PM

Watching "The Martian" right now and it's where they play "Starman" with numerous montages including the NASA folks working with their Chinese equivalents to launch the Chinese resupply ship ... great scenes with the perfect song. It did well in China with $52M in first week.

Sure would be great if we had that type of relationship with China. Seems like the coronavirus provides a "similar" opportunity where both countries can really grow closer but there doesn't seem to be as much trust, transparency etc.

Edward64 02-18-2020 07:01 AM

Some stats from China's CDC.

2.3% death rate, over 60+ is most vulnerable, infections peaked around Jan 23-26.

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News
Quote:

Health officials in China have published the first details of more than 44,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began.

Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly most at risk.

The research also points to the high risk to medical staff.
:
:
The report by the CCDC shows the province's death rate is 2.9% compared with 0.4% in the rest of the country.

The findings put the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%.
:
:
It finds that 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical. The number of deaths among those infected, known as the fatality rate, remains low but rises among those over 80 years old.

Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

The study also identifies which existing illnesses put patients at risk. It puts cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.

Quote:

This is by far the most detailed study of the coronavirus outbreak within China. It gives us incredible insight into what is happening, but the picture is far from complete.

You can study only the cases you find, and other scientists have estimated there could be 10 times as many people infected as are ending up in the official statistics. That means the overall death rate is likely to be lower than the one reported in this study.

The report also suggests the outbreak peaked in late January, but it is too soon to know for sure.

Looking forward, the paper finds that "the epidemic curve of onset of symptoms" peaked around 23-26 January before declining up to 11 February.

Edward64 02-21-2020 01:25 PM

The coronavirus feels like/is a slowburn but an inevitable eventuality. If it spreads like how it spread in China (and seemingly now in SK and Japan), definitely won't be good news for the US. We do have better healthcare and more people able to work remote, so that is good and there'll be an opportunity to see if SK and Japan can control the spread with their better healthcare.

Not worried-worried but I think I'll stock up on toilet paper, SPAM, canned beans etc. ... going to use it eventually anyway.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-h...-pandemic.html
Quote:

U.S. health officials are preparing for the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has killed at least 2,249 people and sickened more than 76,700 worldwide, to become a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

“We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it’s very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. “Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread.”
:
:
Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.

“The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country,” she said.


PilotMan 02-21-2020 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3265793)
The coronavirus feels like/is a slowburn but an inevitable eventuality. If it spreads like how it spread in China (and seemingly now in SK and Japan), definitely won't be good news for the US. We do have better healthcare and more people able to work remote, so that is good and there'll be an opportunity to see if SK and Japan can control the spread with their better healthcare.

Not worried-worried but I think I'll stock up on toilet paper, SPAM, canned beans etc. ... going to use it eventually anyway.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-h...-pandemic.html





Jade Helm 15


NEVER FORGET!


Thanks to all the brave men and women of the Texas National Guard who kept us safe all along. Who knows what Obama would've done?!

Edward64 02-21-2020 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3265794)
Jade Helm 15

NEVER FORGET!

Thanks to all the brave men and women of the Texas National Guard who kept us safe all along. Who knows what Obama would've done?!


So you don't see the coronavirus becoming a bigger threat this year than let's say the annual flu? And the quarantines that are happening right now, an overreaction?

PilotMan 02-21-2020 08:23 PM

You mean like the spot on reactions to that Ebola breakout?

There are lots of reasons why outbreaks are worse, start and spread faster elsewhere.

My issue isn't with the way it's handled. It's the panic and insanity that comes with it. Cheeto isn't really wrong saying warmer weather will weaken it. People want to draw this line from a causing b, but they don't think about all the steps in between. That's all.

NobodyHere 02-24-2020 02:15 PM

Looks like the pandemic has spread to the stock market. Yikes!

Edward64 02-24-2020 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3266040)
Looks like the pandemic has spread to the stock market. Yikes!


Steady ... steady ... ste ... aaargh

It’ll be a bumpy ride.

BTW my SPCE is up 2.16% !!!

JPhillips 02-24-2020 03:19 PM

Ken Cuccinelli, the Acting Deputy Sec. of Homeland Security asked for help reaching Johns Hopkins coronavirus map because it's apparently behind a paywall.

We're all gonna get sick.

Lathum 02-24-2020 04:30 PM

Can anyone think of a worst case scenario then Trump being briefed on a pandemic and actually having to make life or death decisions.

tarcone 02-24-2020 05:43 PM

Is it killing like the flu and taking the very young and old only? Or will this kill anyone?

What does it matter what a leader will do with a virus running around? Its not like anyone can stop it.

Edward64 02-24-2020 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266071)
Is it killing like the flu and taking the very young and old only? Or will this kill anyone?

What does it matter what a leader will do with a virus running around? Its not like anyone can stop it.


From the link below, the death % is primarily the boomers and older.

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News

What I've read is we are trying to "contain" it to buy time to develop a vaccine or figure more effective treatments. Differing estimates as to how far along a vaccine is, unproven stories that some existing drugs can cure or help etc.

China's infections and deaths seem to be decreasing but who really trust those metrics. China cancels the National People's Congress because of the flu etc.

On a more positive note, futures are up 200 right now.

JPhillips 02-25-2020 10:49 AM



That's not comforting.

Edward64 02-25-2020 11:35 AM

Quote:

On a more positive note, futures are up 200 right now.

Well, nevermind.

I do wonder how much of this is Bernie's momentum but I'm sure the main driver is coronavirus fears. Unfortunately, this means Trump gets a free pass if there is a sustained downturn in the economy this year.

(But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock).

panerd 02-25-2020 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266112)
Well, nevermind.

I do wonder how much of this is Bernie's momentum but I'm sure the main driver is coronavirus fears. Unfortunately, this means Trump gets a free pass if there is a sustained downturn in the economy this year.

(But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock).


Yeah I remember the enlightening discussion about welcoming a stock market crash to elect a Democrat. What if the crash is caused by an Asian flu epidemic and so the more protectionist/imperialist/authoritarian candidate wins? So we get 4 more years of Trump and a stock market crash! Hooray! Hate to go all Godwin's Law but what could go wrong with that? Be careful what you wish for right?

Lathum 02-25-2020 12:21 PM

Talk about cancelling the Olympics. The quote came from a long time IOC member named, wait for it......Dick Pound.

https://apnews.com/58043910be7bdc681...source=Twitter

Edward64 02-25-2020 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by panerd (Post 3266113)
Yeah I remember the enlightening discussion about welcoming a stock market crash to elect a Democrat. What if the crash is caused by an Asian flu epidemic and so the more protectionist/imperialist/authoritarian candidate wins? So we get 4 more years of Trump and a stock market crash! Hooray! Hate to go all Godwin's Law but what could go wrong with that? Be careful what you wish for right?


I'll let the others speak for themselves but I said if a recession was overdue (which it is), let it happen early enough to impact the elections where Trump can't crow about a strong economy. Unlike many here, I figure the economy is the key driver ... not climate change or healthcare.

If it doesn't help then let's not have it as it the case now. If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.

Kodos 02-25-2020 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266116)
If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.


I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.

Lathum 02-25-2020 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3266117)
I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.


He will 100% get a pass. The man can do no wrong when it comes to his supporters. They will find an excuse for him on the worst of situations let alone one where he actually may have a legit excuse.

Edward64 02-25-2020 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3266117)
I don't think we can really know how that would effect Trump. He might get a pass, he might not.

But we are overdue for a correction. Bulls can't run forever.


Its true we don't know for sure and if the global economy goes downhill, I do think its valid to say coronavirus contributed "some".

We already had a market correction (defined as 10% decline from the top). We are overdue for a recession (defined as 2 quarters of negative growth).

bronconick 02-25-2020 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266116)
I'll let the others speak for themselves but I said if a recession was overdue (which it is), let it happen early enough to impact the elections where Trump can't crow about a strong economy. Unlike many here, I figure the economy is the key driver ... not climate change or healthcare.

If it doesn't help then let's not have it as it the case now. If there is a crash this year, it won't help because Trump can always point coronavirus impacting the global economy.


Trump's almost certain inadequate response to it will hurt him more then the stock market. We've coasted for three years while he golfed and tweeted because there were no real crises that required an effective President and Administration until now.

Edward64 02-25-2020 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronconick (Post 3266120)
Trump's almost certain inadequate response to it will hurt him more then the stock market. We've coasted for three years while he golfed and tweeted because there were no real crises that required an effective President and Administration until now.


I didn’t think about that. You are right if there is a Katrina like response it could hurt him significantly.

Kodos 02-25-2020 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266119)
Its true we don't know for sure and if the global economy goes downhill, I do think its valid to say coronavirus contributed "some".

We already had a market correction (defined as 10% decline from the top). We are overdue for a recession (defined as 2 quarters of negative growth).


The corona virus could definitely be a Black Swan event that finally causes a significant drop. Hopefully the world can contain the virus from doing its worst, but it is looking really dicey right now.

JPhillips 02-25-2020 01:07 PM

Quote:

"We have contained this, I won't say airtight but pretty close to airtight." -- Kudlow, on @CNBC now.

Yeah, we're fucked when it gets here.

Kodos 02-25-2020 01:14 PM

CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S. - WSJ

This article is not encouraging.

C.D.C. Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the U.S.

Nor this one.

Edward64 02-25-2020 02:17 PM

The US has the strongest (arguably) and/or most scalable healthcare system so we are probably the best to meet this challenge.

I do wish there was more information out there as far as "we have tried X and it has/not worked in treating the symptoms". You would think all the different existing drugs would have been tried by now. There's probably a wealth of sutdies/literature already out there but nothing has been synthesized by MSM to help educate the public.

I was reading an article about whether this was "airborne" or not. Yes, it doesn't fit the technical description of airborne but if I sneeze close by you and you can catch it, its "airborne" enough :)

RainMaker 02-25-2020 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos (Post 3266124)


Stark contrast from the administration.


Galaril 02-25-2020 02:50 PM

Might be time to head down to Costco and by some bulk beans, rice,canned soup and mc n cheese. Is there any decent places that can give a idea of the type of things to pick up for a potential situation where schools, businesses and stores shutdown for a month or two?

Edward64 02-25-2020 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266129)
I do wish there was more information out there as far as "we have tried X and it has/not worked in treating the symptoms". You would think all the different existing drugs would have been tried by now. There's probably a wealth of sutdies/literature already out there but nothing has been synthesized by MSM to help educate the public.


This just popped up. Good news.

This event will inevitably be adapted to a movie one day. Looking forward to it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/us-h...n-6-weeks.html
Quote:

Human trials testing a potential vaccine for the COVID-19 coronavirus are expected to begin in six weeks, U.S. health officials announced Tuesday.

“We are on time at least and maybe even a little bit better,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services, told reporters at a press conference. “Hopefully, no further glitches.”

The White House reportedly asked Congress on Monday for $1.25 billion , including money to develop a vaccine and therapeutics to treat the virus. The National Institutes of Health has been working with biotech company Moderna to develop a vaccine using the current strain of the coronavirus

Edward64 02-25-2020 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266136)
Might be time to head down to Costco and by some bulk beans, rice,canned soup and mc n cheese. Is there any decent places that can give a idea of the type of things to pick up for a potential situation where schools, businesses and stores shutdown for a month or two?


Loads. Just search on google and reddit.

We have 30+ days supply of canned food already. After Katrina, it just made sense to buy "extra" stuff to put in the basement and rotate food that we would eat anyway - rice, pasta, Spam (!, love that stuff), Bush beans, canned corn, green beans, soups etc.

What I don't have yet is a couple months of toilet paper, dog food, lysol & alcohol !!

Galaril 02-25-2020 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266138)
Loads. Just search on google and reddit.

We have 30+ days supply of canned food already. After Katrina, it just made sense to buy "extra" stuff to put in the basement and rotate food that we would eat anyway - rice, pasta, Spam (!, love that stuff), Bush beans, canned corn, green beans, soups etc.

What I don't have yet is a couple months of toilet paper, dog food, lysol & alcohol !!


Thanks. This is a bit concerning for me with five kids at home and little confidence in the government especially these idiots to help us if it turns bad. I am not in panic mode but think it is prudent to have a bit of a small stock of food and like you said canned goods, dog and cat food etc. I guess it is off to Costco the am.

Edward64 02-25-2020 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266140)
Thanks. This is a bit concerning for me with five kids at home and little confidence in the government especially these idiots to help us if it turns bad. I am not in panic mode but think it is prudent to have a bit of a small stock of food and like you said canned goods, dog and cat food etc. I guess it is off to Costco the am.


I know Costco, Walmart, Target etc. keeps track of a person's purchases. It would be fascinating to see the analytics on what items are being bought now that a person would not normally buy or in that quantity.

I wonder if they have see a significant difference in buying yet from their members.

RainMaker 02-25-2020 03:46 PM

I have a friend in Florida that bought a case of MREs off Amazon (I think) when there were concerns of a hurricane last year. Seem kind of pricey but I guess in an emergency, would work.

RainMaker 02-25-2020 04:56 PM

So I thought stocking up was silly but maybe it's not a bad idea. :lol:


JPhillips 02-25-2020 05:28 PM

And it's not just mortality. The hospitalization rate is maybe the bigger worry as hospital beds fill up and then what? Even if the virus is in relatively few cities, it can still cause a lot of problems.

PilotMan 02-25-2020 05:41 PM

The rate of infection is about the same, which may have been what this person was talking about. However, the rate of death is higher with CV.



The biggest issue seems to be the incubation period. The common flu is like 3 days, and this can stretch up to 14 days, and one case of 27 days (although it's possible that person was exposed to more than one person who had the virus).

Izulde 02-25-2020 06:00 PM

Also that the incubation period is largely asymptomatic.

Edward64 02-25-2020 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3266164)
The rate of infection is about the same, which may have been what this person was talking about. However, the rate of death is higher with CV.


FWIW ...

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science
Quote:

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science previously reported.


Re: Death rate, per the link below, it's primarily the older folks that have to worry. It was a little < 15% for 80+ and pretty high for 70+

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

tarcone 02-25-2020 06:23 PM

Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO

Lathum 02-25-2020 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266171)
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO


We can't get people to use their blinkers....

PilotMan 02-25-2020 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266171)
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?




Because of libertarians, that's why.

NobodyHere 02-25-2020 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266171)
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Givepeople a 48 hour window to stock up and GO


I wouldn't mind a 2 week vacation.

PilotMan 02-25-2020 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266170)
FWIW ...

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science



Re: Death rate, per the link below, it's primarily the older folks that have to worry. It was a little < 15% for 80+ and pretty high for 70+

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC News




Regarding the first number:


There's lot of numbers none of them hard yet.



How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13]
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23].
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Edward64 02-25-2020 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266171)
Why dont we just shut down the world for 2 weeks?

No one goes to work. No one leaves their house. Problem solved.

Give people a 48 hour window to stock up and GO


Great idea but unfortunately I'd still have to work remote.

I do wonder if there is enough food at grocery stores for each family to buy 2 weeks worth of food?

Which leads to another question - how are the folks quarantined in cities like Wuhan getting food?

Galaril 02-25-2020 07:21 PM

So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .

Lathum 02-25-2020 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266182)
So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .


Not a chance I would take a hastily developed vaccine for a disease I have 98% chance of surviving.

Galaril 02-25-2020 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266195)
Not a chance I would take a hastily developed vaccine for a disease I have 98% chance of surviving.


Yes the vaccine would need to be proper tested and be considered as safe as the common flu vaccine . Do you get the flu vaccine or are you against vaccinations in general?

Lathum 02-25-2020 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266201)
Yes the vaccine would need to be proper tested and be considered as safe as the common flu vaccine . Do you get the flu vaccine or are you against vaccinations in general?


I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.

tarcone 02-25-2020 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266214)
I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.


You realize there is great chance your kids get cancer is they dont get the HPV virus? Even if the chance is remote, why not negate it?

As much as I am a conspiracy theory guy and I dont trust the government, Im sold on vaccinations.

Galaril 02-25-2020 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266214)
I am very much pro vaccination. Usually I do get the flu vaccine but I didn't this year.

I will admit I am becoming more and more skeptical of some vaccines. Not that they cause autism or anything, more regarding the necessity. I have heard a lot about the HPV one. Now I am not saying I am for or against it, and I have not been swayed one way or the other by social media, I just want to read more on it before my kids get it. The health care industry has gotten out of control with profits and you have to wonder how much of it is marketing as opposed to really needing it.


Fair points.

Lathum 02-25-2020 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3266224)
You realize there is great chance your kids get cancer is they dont get the HPV virus? Even if the chance is remote, why not negate it?



How do you know that? Have you done the research? Seen independent research? Are there even independent studies that exist or is it what the drug companies have told you because they profit from it?

Again. I am not saying that is what I believe, I am saying I need to do more research.

tarcone 02-25-2020 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3266231)
How do you know that? Have you done the research? Seen independent research? Are there even independent studies that exist or is it what the drug companies have told you because they profit from it?

Again. I am not saying that is what I believe, I am saying I need to do more research.


Damn you. Im as big an anti Pharma guy as there is and yet I buy into the vaccination stuff.

What do I believe, What do I think is fact or fiction? Who do I believe?

I hate big pharma, yet Im buying into their propaganda.

Radii 02-25-2020 09:28 PM

Yeah I'm absolutely no expert here but using the HPV vaccine as the example here seriously surprises me. I was under the impression that the cancer risks in women who contract HPV are well understood and accepted and that this was seen as a godsend for women's health by virtually everyone who isn't strict anti-vaxx.

Again, not anywhere close to an expert and I can't bring you sources for any of this, just my general understanding with the impression that this understanding comes from many sources who don't stand to profit or have ulterior motives.

Edward64 02-25-2020 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266182)
So that 6 week vaccine human trial sounds like it is wishful thinking. Head of National Health said as much. Also, it will be interesting if they develop a virus and 30%of the country does not want to take it. I would be in favor of forced vaccinations and if need be by the national guard .


TBH I would not want to be the first tranche to take the vaccination even after successful human trials.

I'll wait after first tranche + 1 month just in case anything comes up. Now if everybody was dying left-and-right, yeah I'll go first.

Galaril 02-25-2020 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3266247)
TBH I would not want to be the first tranche to take the vaccination even after successful human trials.

I'll wait after first tranche + 1 month just in case anything comes up. Now if everybody was dying left-and-right, yeah I'll go first.


Agree.

Lathum 02-25-2020 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3266242)
Yeah I'm absolutely no expert here but using the HPV vaccine as the example here seriously surprises me. I was under the impression that the cancer risks in women who contract HPV are well understood and accepted and that this was seen as a godsend for women's health by virtually everyone who isn't strict anti-vaxx.

Again, not anywhere close to an expert and I can't bring you sources for any of this, just my general understanding with the impression that this understanding comes from many sources who don't stand to profit or have ulterior motives.


Like I said I haven't even thought about researching it yet. Maybe the bias has sunk in through osmosis on social media or something.

Toddzilla 02-25-2020 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3266177)
Regarding the first number:


There's lot of numbers none of them hard yet.



How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13]
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23].
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

If COVID is >= 3.0, then this is going to be a Spanish Flu level catastrophe, tens of millions dead.

RainMaker 02-25-2020 11:19 PM

Noticed N99 masks are sold out at Amazon.

PilotMan 02-26-2020 06:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toddzilla (Post 3266251)
If COVID is >= 3.0, then this is going to be a Spanish Flu level catastrophe, tens of millions dead.


I still don't see it. I believe modern countries, with strong medicine and high standards of cleanliness will not experience this on anything like that level. China, India, Africa, Russia all are at a substantially higher risk. Maybe it will and maybe that will be enough to crash these global economy, but warmer weather is coming too and like the risk will drop with that alone.

HPV vaccines for men massively reduce cancer risks for women. This has been shown. I would give them all day and twice on Sunday.

molson 02-26-2020 11:35 AM

I was reading about how one of the reasons coronavirus spreads so quickly and easily is that it's not particularly deadly or even debilitating. Young people get it, assume they have the cold or the flu - or sometimes feel no symptoms at all - and continue their plans and travel around. They tested everyone on that cruise ship and lots of people had it - even though they all felt fine. If they were just out in the world they wouldn't have even been tested.

That makes containment a lot more difficult. There's a Harvard professor who thinks that 40-70% of people in the world will get the virus at some point, but that most will get only mildly sick, or not notice at all.

Even though they probably under-report things, the fact that we don't have reports of bodies in the streets in China despite how easily this spreads seems to support all that. If China can avoid massive deaths, and there's some indications things are tapering off there, we hopefully will see even smaller death tolls in Europe and North America.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/

Warhammer 02-26-2020 01:24 PM

It sounds like this is a bit like West Nile Virus. Some won’t notice they have it, the elderly and very young die.

Edward64 02-26-2020 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warhammer (Post 3266300)
It sounds like this is a bit like West Nile Virus. Some won’t notice they have it, the elderly and very young die.


Not sure about the very young, see BBC link above. If it can be believed (have to take it with a grain of salt, its a Chinese study), it showed the very young were not impacted that much either. Primarily the older folks ... just under 15% for 80+, about 8% for 70-79, 3.5% for 60-69.

(Probably some ageist bio-terror plot to redistribute Boomer wealth IMO)

Galaril 02-26-2020 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3266252)
Noticed N99 masks are sold out at Amazon.


I was just listening to someone from the CDC on NPR and they said mask are only helpful for sick people not to spread the disease.

JPhillips 02-26-2020 05:14 PM

HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.

Galaril 02-26-2020 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266331)
HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.


WTF grifters.

Izulde 02-26-2020 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3266331)
HHS Sec says that he can't promise people will be able to afford a future coronavirus vaccine because the private sector needs to make money so they'll continue to invest.


Gross.

Galaril 02-26-2020 05:42 PM

My worst fears have come to pass. We have national crisis that involves potential life and death decisions and we have to count Trump to protect us.

Galaril 02-26-2020 05:46 PM

Trump- “I am putting Mike Pence in charge as the Czar"........No!!!!

Though I guess better than Trump.

JPhillips 02-26-2020 05:51 PM

Pence making it clear that Dear Leader is using his powers as a God-King to protect all Americans.

GrantDawg 02-26-2020 05:53 PM

Don't worry. Pence us in charge. You know, the guy who doesn't believe in science.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Lathum 02-26-2020 05:59 PM

Pray the corona away. Perfect.

Galaril 02-26-2020 05:59 PM

Haha I forgot about that. We are all fucked!

bhlloy 02-26-2020 06:00 PM

I’m looking forward to scientists revealing that the gays are the reason Coronavirus is sweeping across America

RainMaker 02-26-2020 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3266329)
I was just listening to someone from the CDC on NPR and they said mask are only helpful for sick people not to spread the disease.


I figured as much. Just thought it was interesting to see people stocking up.

Did find some N95 masks around the house I used during messy home improvement projects.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:24 AM.

Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.