Trying to do some number crunching.

If it's 6-3 now...

We take out a wolf tonight and subsequent night kill it will be 5-2 (unless we get the brutal and he takes out the 2 for 1 lover in that case it's 3-2).

One more wolf makes it probably 2-1 as we would be taking the brutal by getting one of those two.


If the jeff reveal is fake...

We take out a villager today which ends up making it 4-3. Once we take out the brutal we lose at that point.


If the wolves know that those roles are not in the game they may try to force end game with that play.

With that said, I would lean more towards sal/J23 as the wolves instead of jeff/DV.

I'll have to check in on my phone tonight to see how this plays out.

No way the wolves bunch all three votes on DT at that point. In hoops theory they are saving the cunning. Why? Why not gain trust by nailing the cunning. Especially when the seer outs himself and is presumed to be the night kill (since it seems that only PF knew about his chance to make a block).

Day 3 was just a weird vote. We need to see who was or was not around at the deadline. I mean, Hoops aside, you have every single current suspect on DT that day.

Sorry, everything got me thinking.

ntn avoids me and sal like the plague on day two. Sal then votes me instead of voting ntn which could have saved him even more and ties me for the lead with him. Why would a wolf try to push the cunning into the lead at that point when it would do them no good at all?

hoops is a better player than that, he should be able to see all of that. Ask yourselves why he is conveniently overlooking all of that?

There are two posts that don't make sense to me. Two players posted consecutive posts with the same information. An attempt to signal the cultist? I know hoops was one of them but will have to find the other. It stood out because I don't remember seeing anything like that in previous games with people deciding to post the same information in back to back posts.

And I didn't think of the Brutal. Bit of a risk gambling that the brutal will be picked, rather than just waiting out longer today and trying to steer the vote.

I made it 2 are good or 2 are bad. I think if I was a wolf I'd be wanting to keep that group of 4 murky. If a wolf or villager gets voted out tonight, then we still have 3 possibilities. That's no longer the case.

lol..yeah...you are saying you are Laurie and you didnt know the rules of your own role??!!!!!

What!!!!

unvote EF
vote Jeff

Well it's more of our role than my role. Different conditions on who dies and whether Manhattan is alive for which person and who I can scan for in what scenario.

I know it's not rocket science, but I did misread it.

EF, you keep saying "my theory" - I'm hardly the only person considering that you may be the cunning wolf. If you are trying to get me to press the issue, you're doing a good job of it by playing it this way.

Jeff, I didn't put the suspect there in that post - that is how they voted. Unless I'm somehow posting as them, that one is not on me :)

By suspect I mean the 4 under consideration today and potentially you/eagle as cunning. Out of those 6 all but you voted for DT.

Really meant to use it as an example of a crazy day, all the votes coming in after a Chief reveal.

For what's it's worth, with everyone here focusing on those four and Saldana makes a point of focusing and voting on Eagle? My speculation is it's a move meant to improve Eagle's standing if Saldana gets lynched. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

so you are trying to say that you got both roles in your PM?

i have been focusing on eagle for 4 days...my behavior hasnt changed at all.

I'm trying to say when forming a strategy and understanding our role you view it as one. I'm just saying there are a lot of and, if's and or's and I misread it.

As far as the PM question. I'd love to answer, but I thought spelling out PMs was frowned upon? Not sure why it's relevant anyways.

You are really crashing after this aren't you?

UNVOTE JEFF061
VOTE J23

I probably won't be around at deadline, which is unfortunate depending on how things turn out tonight...

Forgot to do this earlier. With Manhattan alive atm, it's a lot better to be wrong lynching DV than Jeff if this reveal is somehow legit.

Vote Darth

Well, with Manhattan voting for me, I guess I have to reveal. I'm Silk Spectre. The good news is that it's a provable role, unlike EF's claim. The bad news is that it will waste tonight's lynch to do so. If I'm the leading vote getter by 1 vote, there will be no lynch, I'll be revealed and lose the power.

I'd much prefer to kill a wolf tonight rather than wasting the lynch to add me to the COT at this point.

Agreed. If we go with testing the lovers, we need to lynch DV, not Jeff. Jeff takes out DV no matter what, but DV does not take out Jeff if PF is alive (which he is and will be at the deadline tonight).

Well damn it...somebody is lying out there...all this revealing going on is making my head spin

J23, you only have one vote. Don't you think it's a little soon to be revealing for that?

I definitely think someone's lying. I don't think The Jackal would have both Silk Spectres in the game.

Yep, strategy seems to be flood the game with fake reveals in order to get through today.

CR, I'm willing to listen to your gut on what roles are more/less likely for this game because I'm not well versed in this universe.

I'm really not worried about being nightkilled with the Seer and Manhattan both still alive. I don't expect to be around much this evening, if at all, so I didn't see a downside to revealing really.

Well, I would be lying if I said I was really versed in it. I haven't read the comic. I saw the movie, and I followed along in the Watchmen threads to see where the breaks from the comic happened, and the general reaction of the hardcore comic book fans. By and large, the movie did a fair job of representing the comic, from what I recall. The main characters in the movie were The Comedian, Ozymandias, Night Owl II, Silk Spectre II, Dr. Manhattan and Rorschach.

Those are the six I would be surprised if the Jackal, presumeably a dyed-in-the-wool Watchmen fan, did not include.

Silk Spectre I is in the movie as well, but her character is really more of an offshoot to understanding some of the other main characters' histories.

As such, and once again, this is all rather meta-gamey, but I am more inclined to buy jeff's reveal over J23's right now.

Keep in mind, for all we know, both Silk Spectres could indeed be in the game.

I've deliberately not read up on it because I may end up reading Watchmen when this is over. Have heard a lot of good stuff about it and I read a ton of comics when I was younger, but almost exclusively Marvel (see the two games I ran :) ).

Anyway, I feel like that is crimping my style a bit with sifting through the reveals, but given that we've had a couple of vanilla villager and I know I'm one as well I'm skeptical of everyone under pressure having roles.

But we're going to need to figure out where we want to go today or the wolves will be in good position to take the vote from us late. I'm trying not to force the action since there are others that are more cleared than me ... just lay out data for people to interpret and throw a hissy fit if I think stuff is clearly wrong ... you know, like voting for you (Chief Rum) yesterday.

Packer are you going to be around or not? I need you to know something, but I don't really want to drop it now :D.

I will be around for another hour to hour and a half, after that I will be out past deadline.

I think we should choose between lynching DV and J23. I would prefer to lynch J23 over DV, because I actually lean toward jeff's reveal being correct, and not so much on J23.

The problem is, if we lynch J23, we give the wolves a great dilemma in choosing between the duke (and probably the game's most powerful player), the seer and taking out two at once (killing jeff).

So I would take out DV, and hope jeff's lying. If he's not, we have another cleared player anyway. I would assume the wolves will take me out then, although the cunning presence has probably lessened my value somewhat. But it's still probably greater at this point than PF with his duke ability being his only remaining ability (or so he's told us ;) ).

In fact, I'll put my money where my mouth is.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

Packer, I would encourage you to draft up a conditional duke order if you are not going to be around at the deadline.

Sure, it could end up screwing us but I'm worried that we don't have enough clarity in our voting block to subvert the wolves. So your power can make sure it is a villager decision today.

Keep it to yourself, make it conditional so if we do reach same conclusion you don't burn it needlessly, and don't say where you are going because that kills vote discussion in the thread.

Just my two cents on how you might maximize your role. Take it for whatever you feel it is worth.

I agree. So here is what I was going to say. Important for everyone if Packer doesn't send an order.

Darth is Laurie. I am Daniel. I swapped that during my reveal. I did this simply to draw the wolves to me during a night kill. Though at the time I was planning more for the future because I thought Manhattan had to be dead.

So basically. Please don't kill Darth :D.

At first, I was thinking, "Damn, man, you're killing us!" :)

My first thought was that you were trying to get us to kill the wrong person in the couple to accidentally kill both, as wolves. Then my brain officially kicked in and noted, well, if they were wolves, they aren't the couple, so that can't happen. ;)

Okay, I'll switch then. You had a good idea in doing the switch; sorry if we end up blowing that up.

Jeff, if you're on the up and up and we lynch you, my apologies in advance. I will no doubt be joining you in the "killed" thread Monday morning.

UNVOTE DATH VILUS
VOTE JEFF61

Well I am quite confident they scanned one of us either last night or the night before. Were delayed because of you. And they started the roll on Darth, not the good guys :)


Heh, thats' what you get when they were discussing my reveal vrs their scan results.

So you believe his change on the reveal but then vote for him? At this point I would guess that saldana is the brutal and J23 is one of the other wolves trying to steer us towards saldana for the two for one brutal.

Crap, or with my theory jeff could be the brutal tryng to do the same thing, steer us to him.

My head is going to explode soon...

I must say this is gettnig rather interesting.

Him, which adds a dilemma. I think it's pretty important we don't take the brutal tonight, as he can attack Darth.

Lynching the brutal may be disastrous. Takes out 2 villagers with him then a 3rd tonight. Something to keep in mind and makes EF's trustworthiness a more immediate factor.

Yeah, except if that was the case I would have just directed people at me from the beginning :).

Unfortunately I don't have much more time before heading out.

Thinking out loud:

If we lynch DV we are sitting at 4-3 after the night kill if jeff is telling the truth. We lose as soon as we lynch the brutal unless we lynch the brutal last.

If we lynch DV and jeff is lying we are sitting either 5-2 or 4-2 (depending on brutal) after the night kill and we then get jeff to make it 3-1 and we have one shot at getting the cunning.

If we can get J23 one vote ahead at the deadline and he is lying we are in the same position as the lynch DV with jeff lying approach.

If he survives and is revealed we are 5-3 after the night kill and we go through the jeff/DV lynch and get to a 2-1 game with the last vote being for all the marbles.

If he is lynched because of funny business we are at 4-3 after the night kill and need to get the brutal last.


I think the best percentage would be if we could get J23 to be up by one vote at the deadline but that is a risky proposition as someone could try to manipulate a late tie (though if we set it up now we can make it easy to see who is screwing around at the end).

EF, I want to vote J23, because I think we might get a wolf there.

But with the cat out of the bag with jeff-Darth (if jeff's telling the truth), the wolves will have a way of killing both of them at once if we don't do it first to save one. That's why I am voting jeff. By us lynching jeff, Darth (with Dr. Manhattan still alive) will be free of being linked to jeff in death, and will also be a cleared player. If we don't lynch jeff, the wolves nightkill Darth and both he and Jeff go tonight.

And, yes, I do think the wolves would go for the duo kill instead of killing me--my scans help, but with us presuming the cunning is out there, I'm not as effective as I could be.

Of course, if it turns out jeff and Darth are actually wolves, we will instead lynch a wolf and then proceed to lynch the other one on Monday.

But this isn't open and shut. It's just the way I would go. I think as long as we make sure it's jeff and J23 we're looking at, we'll do something that benefits the village in the long run.

That is what you would have been doing with your reveal but you would have gotten a villager lynched first before we came after you by that reveal.

Wow, that's a really great point. J23's reveal seemed oddly timed. I'll bet he is the brutal.

I really think we need to vote Jeff and get a cleared DV for Monday's vote.

So probably my last post for a bit, I hope. Something to chew on.

My trust feeling on Eagle is pretty low. I personally feel he is trying to steer the vote to the brutal. Based on the fact that Eagle is unvoting and steering his people away from Saldana and to presumably J2D(that or potentially an innocent)......

I'm keeping my vote on Saldana.

This is my current layout.
J2D: Brutal
Eagle: Cunning
Saldana: Other type of wolf

Well Darth would presumably be guarded. I think they'd know this and go for you.

Then EF goes and posts before I could and changes things up :).

I know J2d and Saldana are wolves.

God damn eagle's got me all scatter brained though.

No actually, EF's post seems to go along with my thinking and I agree with Chief. Like I said...scattered.


J2D: Brutal
Eagle: Cunning
Saldana: Other type of wolf

Crap, I was including the brutal aspect into the J23 lynch as a wolf theory but forgot about the 2 for 1 brutal now with jeff/DV. If we had just stuck with going after one of either sal of J23 after jeff's reveal without forcing his hand to reveal again (if he is not lying) then we would have been in a better position.

Very wrong about me, and now making me wonder about you.

Well christ man, I've been pointing the cunning finger at you and Hoops for days. This isn't something new :).

But at this point I'd about bet money on that lineup.

I'll bet the house against your lineup.

I would say hoops is the cunning at this point, but not willing to bet on that one yet.

I am going to go as far as saying they specifically picked that role for J2D so they could make a reason to vote him.

Honestly, I am aware of why Chief wants to vote me and I was aware that my logic was dooming me. My logic was solid as is Chief's.

But at this point I am VERY certain Saldana is the right call for tonight.

J2D: Brutal
Eagle: Cunning
Saldana: Other type of wolfI'd be amazed if this doesn't pan out.

Whatever happens it's been fun. Might as well go with what I have been trying. You guys can take it from there. If you are going to lynch me you might as well do it now so we can lose the game sooner instead of later.


vote saldana

UNVOTE J23
VOTE SALDANA

Right, Darth should be protected. Okay, I am less concerned about leaving jeff/Darth untested through tonight, so long as PF is paying attention (and it looks like he is; he just posted).

I am also leaning toward jeff talling the truth. I'll be honest, I would be shocked if jeff is a wolf. My read on him all game has been good, and although I'm no hoops, I'm not usually so off either.

Why does that matter? Consider the roles then for the village (calling BS on J23 at the moment): seer, BG, duke with BG inheritance powers and lovers (at least). We had a fake seer and a cultist, which I'll call a draw. Point is, though, that's a lot roled villagers with some power. As such, I just can't see the wolves having just two, which had been my thinking from my night time post. They must have three wolves, and for sure, one of the three I already scanned is a cunning wolf, because there aren't enough uncleareds, otherwise.

Going with that, even though my vibe leans more toward villager now, I have to agree that saldana is definite possibility as a wolf.

He does seem to be the forgotten man here, and J23 does seem to be drawing attention away and toward himself.

UNVOTE JEFF61
VOTE SALDANA

I agree with your lineup here, jeff, except I don't know about Eagle as the cunning yet. I would pick him right now with a gun to my head, but if we don't get him tonight, I think we should keep an open mind to hoops or Danny (less likely, IMO) being the cunning.

Yeah one day at a time...though Eagle's push away from Saldana and toward J2D today is kind of my linchpin when it comes to identifying the brutal though.

I'm home now, you guys made a lot of posts for me to catch up on.

I can definitely see it. His early behavior suggests the possibility, too.

BTW, it's J23, not J2D. ;)

Looks pretty clear we are lynching Saldana. I agree with this move. I've had a good read on Jeff all game and I find it more likely the lovers are in the game than the 2nd silk spectre (or EF's role for that matter). I also got some desperation from reading J23's posts today. Though maybe that intentional because he is the brutal?

The only other possible move would be to follow what Chief said and lynch Jeff making sure the wolves don't get a double kill. Lynching anyone else would be a terrible play. That said, I think it's more likely we find a wolf with Saldana

J2D? Sounds like a star wars robot

I swear every time I type out his name my brain says J2D for some reason, then I check it and make the correction. Guess I forgot that time.

I'm going to work out now. I'll check in after and before I leave for bowling to make sure nothing eventful has happened.

again, not sure exactly what i have done to make anyone think i am a wolf...i have done nothing but provide analysis that no one has been able to refute, and get "saved" by a known villager.

is my voting record great, no, but neither are alot of other people that are "cleared"

im a vanilla villager, plain and simple.

Probably academic at this point, but moving off Darth in case the lovers reveal is legit.

unvote Darth
vote Saldana

I'll go ahead and put a vote on Saldana as well, with the expectation that PF may end up doing something different with the vote later.

VOTE SALDANA

About to get ready to leave. Fingers crossed*

SORRY!!! I was supposed to be home two hours ago but my asshole bosses made me stay. So I've got to catch up real quick

Better be real quick, we got business to take care of tonight. Dad has to work late so we are on our own. Got to bring our A game.

Aww crap really? Oh well, we'll have to both shoot 700 to make sure.

Vote Saldana

DV, Jeff shared some info about you - care to confirm/deny?

Yes, I am indeed the hot chick. Call me Laurie guys :-)

Silk Spectree II

*Spectre

heading out now, I'll catch you guys when i get back. Good luck

is the whole damn village on me?

Kind of appears that way, but only DV and I are around for discussion at this hour on Friday night.

well, I just checked in. So i am here. I'm still at work. Sucks.

yup

Awesome! Good call, jeff61!

Huzzah! Glad we got one :)

If you would have listened to me a couple days ago... :)

Where exactly did I push away from saldana? I have been saying him for days now.

Good news with the lynch. Bad news is Darth and I bowled poorly and we lost 3 of 4 games.

Yup yup, it wasn't in the cards for us tonight

The second half of yesterday. You weren't pushing away to save Saldana, that's not my point. You were pushing away to lynch J23 the brutal. Anyways, plenty of time to discuss.

J23=Brutal. As sure of that as I was Saldana. And still pretty sure Eagle's cunning.

And Lathum = Least valuable player for this game :D.

Made no push on j23 yesterday. All I did was present possibilities. We lose if we go by your list and the wolves win. There is one scenario where I can guarantee a victory for us but first two things need to happen. I am not going to say what they are at this time, however, as it does us no good to tip our hand during this time.

All of the analysis over the weekend doesn't really help too much. The wolves are going to have to make some interesting decisions and that will likely provide us with some clarity for the next day phase.

And I'm a guy that LOVES talking about this stuff, but at this point I don't see the point in it. We run the risk of providing the wolves with greater clarity for their night actions by excess discussion today. I just hope that everyone is ready for a good day of discussion on Monday.

yeah, I messed that up.

Exactly. This is one of the reasons I don't like to have night phases last a whole weekend (of course, I usually run one deadline games anyway, but you get the point...).

Vote Steelers

Go Packers!

+1

Prince Akeem: Sir, did you happen to catch the professional football contest on television last night?
Cleo McDowell: No, I didn't.
Prince Akeem: Oh sir, the Giants of New York took on the Packers of Green Bay. And in the end, the Giants triumphed by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big "H". It was a most ripping victory.
Cleo McDowell: Son.
Prince Akeem: Yes?
Cleo McDowell: If you want to keep working here, stay off the drugs.
Prince Akeem: Yes

Either smart bodyguard play or someone outsmarted themselves.