GroupThink 3 - Kitty Hawk, 2024
 

GroupThink 3 – Kitty Hawk Flyers

The GroupThink concept includes several FOFC members working together to cooperatively manage a team in the latest version of the FOF game, FOF4. We have several people assigned to specific management roles, and others who just chime in as they want to -- all are welcome.

We’re up to the year 2024, our fifth with this franchise. We cleaned house in 2020, and posted the franchise’s first winning season in five seasons. Our second year, in 2021, we made it all the way into the league championship game, despite serious injuries (including once again a QB injury for the playoffs). In 2022, we kicked the door in with a sloppy, messy championship earned over a muddy field – and cashed in for the franchise’s first title. In 2023, we suffered some peculiar injuries, but still managed another title game run, only to come up short in the big game once again.

Here’s the official snapshot of our franchise history under our management:


If you are inclined to follow along, you may download the files below (the annual stat files are contained in the first update of each year – and will require some digging, I fear). Even without the files, all are quite welcome to join in the discussions and voice your thoughts or support.


Here are the house rules that we have been following:

PLAYER ACQUISITIONS
-Players other than undrafted rookies may only be acquired during the draft and the 20-stage FA process
-No initiating trades, other than tades during the draft involving current year's picks only
-Team may respond to trade offers that pass the standard fairness test (alter and confirm)
-Team may not accept a first round draft pick in trade for a reserve player
-Every FA offer to a player requesting any bonus (not including current team members) must include a signing bonus at least as large as the highest year's salary
-Team may make unlimited FA offers before the first week of free agency, and then no more than two more offers before the end of the FA process

ROSTER MANAGEMENT
-Team may not renegotiate or extend any player contracts
-Team may not enter the regular season with a chemistry conflict
-All positional team leaders must be starters for the team, except for “meaningless” games
-Positional team leaders must get playing time of 3
-All positional team leaders must receive at least a qualifying offer from the team for a new contract

FINANCES
-Ticket prices for each level must remain below the average of two closest teams, geographically
-If team runs an operating deficit, the following year the team must remain 10% under the salary cap
-The preceding effect is cumulative - two running annual deficits require staying 20% below cap, etc.
-Cannot have both scout and coach in the top ten salaries of the league

ACCOUNTABILITY
-A coach with a losing record the season his contract expires can not be rehired
-Last place in the division gets the coach fired (unless it is his first year with the team)
-Last place in the conference gets the "starting" QB sacked (unless he is in his first 3 seasons)
-Last place in the league gets the coach, starting QB, and scout canned.


There are always questions for every team – and we have many ahead for this one. Feel free to join in, catch up on the file downloads, and contribute to the ongoing Kitty Hawk Flyers’ campaign. Go Flyers!

We have had one retirement, TE Julio Diana. He was a marginal player, but a positional leader – and now he’s decided to hang ‘em up. For now, this makes our prolific receiver Peter Song our receiver group leader, but with a leadership rating of only 62, that hold might be tenuous. Song comes off a phenomenal season, with 1,364 yards in only 11 games—only injuries kept him from making the all-pro squad.

However, there’s a downside. As a Virgo, Song creates a new dynamic with our receiving corps. Indeed, he now has a conflict with our early draft pick from last year, Marc Willis. Our rules say that we may not come out of training camp with a standing conflict, so we will have to resolve this one – either by changing the leadership role, or getting rid of one of these players. So, we have one immediate issue to resolve.

Financially, we turned a modest $9 million profit in 2023, so we won't suffer any penalties this year. However, due to actions of our regional competitors our ticket prices are going to slide down a little bit for the coming season - so we may have trouble maintaining that proft margin. Might be a good year to watch our bottom line.

Since we have our staff already under contract, I zip ahead and go into the free agency period - with the latest TCY-generated draft file imported.

File #1 of 2 attached (This includes the annual stat file)

File #2 of 2

Iwonder if we would have gotten passed on any more with a guy making half as much as Perkins?

Fair point... looks like this year, we'll have young Barton in there, in all likelihood. But that is puzzling - we got good numeric performance from our CBs, but opponents were very effective throwing against us.

I assume that Finley wants a king's ransom?

If so, I think we can make the hard choice and let him walk. We will give Harden and Rubble a chance to shine.

As far as Francis goes--he had a QB rating over 100 last year. And he wins--which means something to me, even if it is not an actual variable in the game. At the same time, he has never completed a 16 game season, and his red bars are not that great.

What kind of money is Francis wanting? I would be inclined to want to resign him, but I would also want to see what other QBs were out on the market and the prices they were demanding.

For the last two years, we have been averaging over 30ppg and have given up a lot of yards through the air. Perhaps teams are throwing against us because they have to.

Also--how much zone did you play? I played very little. Maybe the game is set up so that M2M and BnR defense will always give up a lot through the air.

Not exactly sure what you mean by numeric performance.

There are several things that might explain how our CB's could perform well, but us still give up a lot through the air.

* Were we running Man 2 Man? Zone? Bump N Run? If heavy man 2 man, I don't have much explanation. If Zone, then the Corners might not end up defending the top recievers. If bump N run, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect some long gains as there are going to be times when the WR's blow past the attempted "bump"

* Passes to the backs out of the backfield. Would result in LB coverage usually.

* Passes to TE's.

* 3 WR sets against a base defense.

Just thinking out loud.

I think there's some truth to that. We score a lot, get a lot of leads, and teams have to throw against us. Makes sense.

Last year, while our aggregate pass defense was among the league's worst, the yard per attampe by our opponents was only 6.80, which was just about the league median. We're not super-strong against the pass, but we're not god-awful either.

Add in the fact that opposing teams ran against us a great deal less than average (our rushing yards allowed was either #1 or #2 overall last year) and that further supports the theory that they passed on us because they had to.

Well, I mean that according to the numbers generated by the game, our corners did awfully well.

Bo Perkins -- 24 PD/53 CA, 6 Int over 605 PPlays = 20.8 PDPct
J Henderson -- 17 PD/45 CA, 7 Int over 606 PPlays = 20.7 PDPct

These are very solid numbers for starting corners -- Perkins was again named first team all-pro, and Henderson could have made a case to be considered. (For reference, the league records for top numbers of passes defensed only shows 20 players ever gettint 25 in a season -- Perkins getting 24 here is a career high for a six-time pro bowler)

Since the game doesn't give us other numbers that might tell us how many time our guys got "beat" on patterns (other than catches allowed, which is a little too broad) it's tough to say a lot more. So, I'm left with the same kind of speculation you raise about schemes and so forth. It doesn't seem like we can/should hang this on our corners and their ability or performance.

CHEMISTRY REFERENCE


And our CURRENT position leaders are:

This is what I assumed you meant, but wasn't sure if you were perhaps lumping tackles and assists in there as well. Those might have been misleading and that's why I was looking for clarification.

And now back to the show...

During the past season we played 4 or 8 games with my Def, which was a lot less extreem than what the computer would have done.

I then pressed the recomend button, and started tweaking from there.

My observation was that redoze, 3rd down, and 4th Q (lead or not) needed adjustments. I never did get 4th Q right. Go through the logs with a calculator, and you will see that teams gained most of their air yards vs us in the 4th Q. This next season I will probably have us just play for the pass in the 4th, unless we are way behind.


For the folks who staff: I am off the B&R kick. I will save that for a solo career where i have 10 season to figure it out. This off-season, lets focus on strong zone players.

How well does this mesh with the players we have? Does that matter?

CB Perkins can do it all, so no problem there. Young CB Barton is a bit better with man than zone, but it's not a huge difference. S Hawkins is okay either way, and S Cassidy is weak in zone.

Probably not a huge shakeup... but certainly a new direction than where our focus has been.

I know, but I think we will need to use more 3 zone to beat back the wolves.

Okay, some thoughts on free agency…

We have to put in offers to our positional leaders, so we can start with these deals:

4.4 FB Rubble
3.6 DT Littlejohn
3.4 S Hawkins

That’s about 11.5 million tied up in deals that we have every reason to think will get accepted.

That’s 35 players + 3 re-signees + 7 rookies = 45 slots. * remaining positions, and $55 million to spend on them. We have money to spend for this year, it’s pretty clear. Where do we need to spend it, all things equal?


QB – Heath Sparks is our only proven player currently signed, Ethan Francis wants over $20m/season, so I have to think he’s out of the picture. We need to start a search for another affordable QB, I think… unless we want to take the big plunge and invest heavily here.

RB – RJ Harden is back on his $6m deal and is the presumptive starter. Daniel Finley has given us four straight 1,000+ seasons, but his request for a new deal starts at about $15m per season – I think we can do okay without him at that price. We’ve done well with #2-caliber guys in the draft.

FB – If Earnest Rubble returns, we are set and deep here.

TE – We have Wylie and a decent backup Humphrey both signed, plus FB spillover as needed.

WR – Song, Thomas, Newsome, and Willis (if we can get all four to coexist) look like a promising squad. I think we’re fine here – but we have had good luck with late draft picks, also.

T – With Willie Andrews, four-time defending all-pro left tackle, up for a new contract – we either need to re-sign him )the bidding starts at around $13 million) or else come up with a plan. Timothy Johns and David Huntley are okay players, but neither is ready to be our starting left tackle, I don’t think. I think a serious pursuit of Andrews makes the most sense.

G – Dave Hausermann continues to run block well, and is basically highway 72 against the pass. Johnson and Stewart are signed and ready to play – I think we’re okay here unless great value comes along.

C – Should be Kenneth Alston’s year to finally play, after sitting for two seasons as a first round pick. Chuck Drake is asking for a king’s ransom ($8m+) so the starting job is for Alston now. Need a backup.

We probably can look for young punter or kicker this year – neither guy we have is untouchable. Drafting a long term guy might be wise, when we’re stammering around in round four or so.

DE – JC Sinclair comes off a great postseason, and Sam Upshaw is rounding into solid form – both are solid players. We don’t have a bona fide star here, though. We could probably use one more solid player, due to the injury frequency.

DT – Assuming Littlejohn re-signs, we are three deep here, and solid enough to rotate guys into the DE spot.

OLB – We are four deep, with Custer, Wallace and Middleton all in starting roles somewhere. Boyd gives depth – never hurts to add quality, but we’re okay here.

ILB – Otis Mitchell started last year, and was okay – but is asking for nearly $5m/season now. My best guess is that he’s not worth it, but he’s a backdoor if we need it later in free agency. I think we need another run stopper here.

CB – Perkins is a horse, Barton coming along and should be playable this year. That’s it. Devitt and Henderson are mostly man-up guys, don’t fit in the proposed new scheme. Need to grab at least one playable guy in free agency, I think.

S – Assuming we re-sign Hawkins, we’ll have three startable guys in the fold. Hawkins has to start (did we neglect that last season?) but McNair and Cassidy are both solid guys, and Cassidy can back up at CB also. A cheap 4th might be nice, but isn’t a top priority.


Overall – I think our top “need” areas are:

LT starter
QB starter
CB depth
LB depth
DE depth
RB depth

Most of these are places where we can easily spend a lot or money, so even though the purse is pretty open – we’ll have to spend wisely.

So that we can keep this moving along, we know that we will have to make offers to our position leaders (Rubble, Hawkins and Littlejohn are the ones out of contract I think). Are there other players who are out of contract that we are pretty sure we will re-sign? If so, we should go ahead and sign them so we can determine how much $ we'll have to throw at various need positions.

Two notables - Willie Andrews is out of contract. Based on history, I think we can find a suitable replacement for a lot less than what he is asking. Also, in regard to Ethan Francis, I think he wanted somewhere in the neighborhood of $15-16 million a year. Kinda pricey if you ask me.

I agree with QS's analysis above except for LT Willie Andrews. He is in his 16th (?) year and if I recall, asking for a hefty bonus ($9 million?). I really don't expect him to play for two more seasons so I think he'd be stealing our money. I'd be more open to a one year deal.

Also, we have proven that we can get serviceable players for the OL at a value price. If we are going to spend at this position, which I'm not opposed to, I'd like to see us get a good young stud.

Any word on what the FA market looks like for LT'?

Group, discuss...

I like Francis, but he can go at that price.

Finley will be missed, but it is time.

Harden/Rubble and a late round draft choice give us RB depth.

My #1 priority is a stud LT or a stud QB.

Does it look like any stud QBs are available in the draft this year? I would propose trading up for one if he is. Play Sparks this year and groom the youngster for next.

Also, I would not be adverse to signing a solid QB in FA if he is available.

Hmmm....stud QB's and stud LT's. Sounds like somebody wants a bigger budget. Of course we did loosen the purse strings for the D last year with Perkins and Henderson and a first round draft pick.

I'm a little averse to picking a QB early in the draft unless they have a fair amount of red. After watching the QB I wanted to pick in the 2nd round go undrafted, and subsequently bust, I'm a little leery. But that's just me.

In regard to trading up, I think it might be a good idea. We have most of our starters and are just filling in depth. I think trading quantity for quality could be good.

Also, QuikSand, you might want to add to your Christmas list a starting WR with high leadership. Otherwise we'll be forced to cut Willis and eat his bonus money.

Hawkins went out for some time and I forgot to reslot him.

I'm with you on longetivity concerns, and would probably lean toward a solid one year deal anyway. But I think we absolutely must pursue him - this is, I think, a classic case of bar-versus-star, where the player's scouting report makes him look pretty good, but his year-to-year onfield performance is nothing short of spectacular. I'd hate to see us go save $5 million by letting him go, and then we get who-knows-what with a new player here.

Well of course I am going to advocate for lots of expensive toys.

Is there a QB on the market who has Francis' level of red but who is only asking for backup money? That would be the most cost effective choice.

I agree with a one year proposal to Andrews.

Finding a #2 caliber WR with high leadership should not be impossible. There is a dropoff after Song.

I think the best fit WR that I can find is, curiously enough, a guy we considered last year. Wes Gomez was looking for a FA deal last year, we decided we couldn't afford him, and he settled for a one year minsal deal with Ypsilanti. The result? 1,560 yards receiving and a trop to Hawaii! Now, Gomez is a free agent again, and asking for over $12m/season.

However, he would very likely become our receivers leader (69 leadership) and wouldn't pose a problem as a starter, since he's a very solid player anyway.

To the extent that we start contemplating lots of sily strategies here-- this is a straightforward one. We go out and spend the money for a legit starter and we start him.

"but his year-to-year onfield performance is nothing short of spectacular"

Do we know that this is true? We've had a great running game, but how much is attributable to Andrews? We've had great blocking TE's, great centers, and great running backs. It's possible that Andrews has been good, but not great.

I'm not saying he hasn't been a solid performer. I'm just curious if he really has had that much of an impact.

Don't have the game in front of me, and don't know if anyone has kept the year end stats but now I'm curious to know his KRO's vs. KRB's and the like.

And again, I'm not saying I'm opposed to going after Andrews, I'm just not convinced he's a must have.

And before we got nuts ovr WR Willis, let's recall:

a) he's a little disappointing already, and
b) the "cap hit" for cutting him would only be about $1m this year and $2m next year

It wouldn't be the end of the world if we just had to release him in the name of chemistry.

Chemistry check on Gomez as a positional leader? And how old is he? Gonna be around awhile or near retirement?

True dat.

Here's the skinny on Andrews - just his KRB% and SA%:

2020 40.0% KRB, 0.6% SA
2021 43.3% KRB, 0.6% SA
2022 35.2% KRB, 1.1% SA
2023 32.2% KRB, 0.2% SA

Some dropoff there on the run blocking side, but 2022 was the only season that he dropped down to second team all-pro. Those first two seasons are rare performances from a left tackle - that's HOF stuff there.

Sorry, meant to include that. He's fine chemistry-wise, woudl have one affinity with current players and no conflicts with anyone who matters.

If anyone else wants to check for WR additions here, the best signs (two affinities) would be Scorpio or Leo, and the acceptable ones Taurus, Libra, Capricorn, and Pisces. (Gomez is a Libra)

Gomez is a 7th year guy, so he would be around a while. He's only one year older than Peter Song.

The numbers speak for themselves. Thanks for looking that up.

Guys, I have been working 18 hour days, so my availability right now is not good. If I am not working, I am probably asleep. Please don't wait for my input to make a desicion about anything.

Well, at QB, Nate Cote looks like the kind of guy we often pursue. He'd be okay on chemistry, is technically a 6th year journeyman, but has only thrown 38 passes in the league. He has prety respectable current ratings (around 25-35 acrodd the board) and some excellent potential in avoiding interceptions, timing, and scrambling. He'd probably sign a 3yr deal for around $3-3.5m per season, and I think he would immediately take the starting job (he appears to be better than Sparks already, even without developing any further).

I'm cool with the journeyman QB. It has worked for us so far.

How much of a drop-off, if any, is he from Francis?

You've shown a definite need for 2 QB's as well, so Cote sounds like a good solution.

Assuming we get the cheap QB and resign Andrews for 1 year--does that not leave us with a pretty serious chunk of cash in the bank?

Is there any stud out there for whom it is worth it to break the bank? (Kind of a BPA for free agency)

Well, there is a major standout in the free agent market: DE Darren Medzihradksy. This guy is an unbelievably solid defensve end-- first team all pro in five of the last six years. He's into his 13th season, with 164.5 career sacks... only once falling below 10 sacks per season... averaging about 17/season the last several years. His career numbers are just staggering: 9.2 PRPCT (that's ungodly) and 9.7 TkPct (that's pretty solid for a defensive end, too).

The bidding starts at around $15 million a season. With our miserable history in spending big money at DE, I really don't expect that we'll pursue this guy, but he looks like a damned house on fire.

As opposed to Manning, who was just a flaming bag of poo...

I just don;t think we ever see the return on these high priced def players. Better to get 2 7M per season DEs.

After "The Manning Experiment" I concur.

Wind...leaving...sails...

I was able to DL the files and take a look. I noticed we have a trade offer for J.C. Sinclair. The Ft. Wayne Pistons are offering C Al Uusutalo and a 3rd round pick. It passes the fairness test and might be worthwhile, except that it doesn't pass the Chemistry Test. Uusutalo is an Aries and would conflict with Aquarius Johns. Oh well.

Nate Cote caught my eye as well. I can support going after this guy.

Others for consideration:

FS - Mercury Goff - High Leadership. Would become Secondary Leader.

LG - Ross Vincent - May be a little pricey, but I think is reasonable. In his first full year last year, he put up a 39.3 block % in 16 starts. He is a Leo with low leadership

I must admit that the impending release of FOF2004 has made me a little less into GT. I am already thinking ahead to 2k4. I also feel like the GT offseason is more of a time where I make general recommendations, and then really get into it when it is time to sim.

How do others feel? Has the wind left our sails?

Honestly, after making it to the Super Bowl 3 straight years and winning one I feel the challenge is somewhat diminished. Also, as AML pointed out the release of FOF2k4 has been a distraction (Haven't DL the demo yet, but still...)

Also, this is the busy busy busy time of year for me work wise, so I haven't been able to devote as much time to the GT. I think there is a breeze still blowing, but the arrow is on target to strike the Albatross and thus kill the breeze.

I think FOF2004 definitely has something to do with it. I've been a little slow with my Tequilas dynasty too. Fritz stated he has been busy with work too. Of course, this won't get any better once the new game is released probably, but maybe we've just hit a lull.

Though I do wonder if there are any other pathetic teams out there looking for a new staff ;)