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Some Combine Numbers
Since I've seen a couple threads pop up lately about combine scores I thought I'd post some of the info I've been using to evaluate the numbers we have to look at in the draft screen. I figure since no one really comes in here there won't be any problems with people who don't want to share their "secrets" with MP opponents. Hopefully we can share observations and learn some things without spoiling anything for people that don't want to know.
Ok, essentially I did a breakdown by position of each of the combine categories. I tried to get a general range for each score. Essentially a range where distribution seemed logical and somewhat flowing. Then I tried to find an average number, more of a number that seemed to have a dense clustering of prospects, a number that would assumedly be the peak point of a bell shaped distribution. In many cases the number isn't really an average but a mode, but in any case it's a fairly good bar of what an "average" prospect would do. The ranges are by no means all-inclusive. There will probably be a couple players in each position group that exceed the ranges one way or the other, the ranges are meant to help identify these players that seem to be outside of the regular distribution or on its fringes. I don't have a lot of concrete analysis to go along with these numbers, but what I do have I'll offer after listing the info. I'll start by establishing the highest scores I've seen in looking at some fifty or so drafts. Dash The fastest draft eligible player I've ever seen was a 4.26 WR. I've seen a veteran player run a 4.25 in the Fastest Man screen, so conceivably a prospect could run 4.25, but 4.26 is the best I've seen. Essentially anything better than 4.4 is very good. Only a handful of draftees will crack 4.4. Most drafts will have at least a couple, or just one, player in the 4.3 range. Some drafts will have a player that breaks 4.3 but these guys are rare. I've seen a draft with 3 guys running 4.2something, but I've seen as many five consecutive drafts without a 4.2 runner as well. It seems that WR's and CB's are the players capable of breaking 4.3. I've seen an RB at 4.31, and QB, RB, OLB, and S seem to be able to run in the 4.3 range. Sole The highest score I've ever seen is a 57. I've seen a Safety and a QB put up 57. A couple OLineman seem to break 50 in most drafts. 55 or above is extremely rare however. Strg The highest I've seen for a draft eligible player is 47, but again, I've seen veterans put up 48 on the Strongest Man screen, so 48 may be possible. 47 is rare but you'll see it a number of times, T's and G's seem to be the positions that can hit 47. DT's and DE's seem to max at 45. Agil 6.72 is the best I've seen. I've seen it a few times, CB's and WR's, but I've never seen better. 6.7 seems to be about the same as a 4.2 dash as far as rarity, although it does seem like I see a few more 6.7's. Here are the breakdowns by position QB Dash 4.5 - 5.2 range 4.74 - 4.86 avg (the other avgs are a little more precise) Sole 12 - 40 28 avg Strg 6 - 15 10 avg Agil 7.3 - 8.2 7.8 avg RB 4.5 - 4.9 4.75 avg 8-34 Sole 21-22 avg 9-20 Strg 14 avg 7.1 - 7.7 7.35 avg FB 4.6 - 5 4.8 avg 12 - 36 Sole 22-23 avg 14-27 Strg 18-21 avg 7.2 - 8 7.5 avg TE 4.7 - 5.2 4.96 avg 12 - 35 Sole 24 avg 15 - 27 Strg 22 avg 7.2 - 8.5 7.75 avg WR 4.4 - 4.8 4.51 avg 9 - 35 Sole 22-23 avg 5 - 20 Strg 11 avg 6.8 - 7.6 7.2 avg C 5 - 5.5 5.22 avg 13 - 41 Sole 26 avg 17 - 33 Strg 27 avg 7.7 - 8.4 7.96 avg G 4.9 - 5.5 5.12 avg 12 - 50 Sole 28 avg 21 - 35 Strg 26-27 avg 7.6 - 8.5 7.9 avg T 5 - 5.6 5.27 avg 10 - 48 Sole 29-30 avg 19 - 35 Strg 25 avg 7.45 - 8.4 7.8 avg DE 4.7 - 5.15 4.92 avg 12 - 35 Sole 24-26 avg 18 - 35 Strg 27 avg 7.1 - 8.2 7.75 DT 4.9 - 5.4 5.07 avg 10 - 33 Sole 20-22 avg 21 -34 Strg 26-28 avg 7.4 - 8.5 7.8 avg ILB 4.7 - 5.1 4.82 avg 18 - 35 Sole 27 avg (24 and 31 seemed to be cluster points) 14 - 27 Strg 21 avg 7.3 - 8.1 7.53 - 7.6 avg OLB 4.5 - 4.95 4.71 avg 12 - 39 Sole 26 avg 10 - 24 Strg 18 avg 7.1 - 7.8 7.4 avg CB 4.4 - 4.7 4.51 avg 9 - 32 Sole 25 avg 6 - 14 Strg 11-12 avg 6.9 - 7.6 7.2 S 4.45 - 4.85 4.58 avg 12 - 40 Sole 29 - 32 avg 9 - 20 Strg 15 avg 7 - 7.8 7.35 avg Alright, I'll give some brief info in a new post. |
Essentially the only analysis I'll offer quickly right now is that using these numbers it's a lot easier to spot players in the 3rd and 4th rounds that have more potential than they seem. Guys that your scout rates in that 40-55 range that have seemingly breakout combine numbers are worth a look here. Volatility or no volatility they are often better than they appear. I would especially note players at weak positions (CB or WR namely) that put up a big strength score. A CB that puts up a 20 strength number seems to be a good bet in my experience. I haven't found any surefire signs, which is good, but there are trends. Using the strength scores to see if a player may be undervalued in blocking or pass rush strength is also useful. I've got a few more ideas, but I'd rather hear if anybody else has anything to add, or something they'd edit. I'm open to suggestion. I think there is a lot to talk about in the draft.
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Thanks a bunch for the info! Hopefully this will get the ball rolling on these kinds of discussions... I'm debating whether or not to put up some (what I consider), hard and very concrete data as to drafting OL - it's told me a lot about the theory of combine numbers.
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Here goes nothing...
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Name Pos Current Future Percent RunB PassB BlkStr Endur Reps Agil 40 PostCurr ChangeCurr PostFut ChangeFut PostRunBlk PostPassBlk PostBlkStr PostEndIf you'll notice, my conclusion is that the numbers give you a very good indication where in the range of a skill the player will fall. Also, more importantly, (for OL and DL, at least), each combine score has a direct effect on one and only one rating. Thoughts? |
I find this analysis very interesting.. unfortunately I haven't done enough good analysis to add much to this discussion.
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How do you guys extract that info from the draft view screen ? Is there any way to export to excel or such ? other than manually I mean ?
If it's possible to do that, I'll be running a bunch of statistical tests... |
RPI,
Yeah it seems clear just going through that for OLineman dash is tied to Run Blocking, Agil to Pass Blocking, and Strg to Blocking Strength. It's not really concrete or simplistic beyond that there seems to be a relationship there though. I like to go through and sort by the categories and if it looks like a guy is scouted well below what his agility score might imply for his pass blocking, then you have to look at other things. If a guy like this has high volatility as well then I see that as a point in his favor. Then I take a look at his other scores. Sometimes a guy like this will have something like a 20 for Strg, which has been a good sign for me that the lower pass blocking score is probably in line with where this guy is at. Players that seem to be under-valued looking at one combine score often have a very poor score in one of the other categories. This has been a consistent sign to trust my scout. But if the guy has other fairly average scores, or good scores, they usually end up being better than advertised. FFF, I did my analysis manually. If you break it down by position, just looking at a few drafts, not crunching any numbers, the info posted above will more or less jump out at you. I have an excel where I've been tracking a lot of these things, but it's been less than an intensive exploration of the stats and more casual trend finding. If you can find an easier way, I think those tests would be interesting. |
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I would be DYING to read that :)
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Be prepared: this thing is gonna be long. |
Awesome. This is the kind of information I've been waiting for for a long time.
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http://home.nc.rr.com/gstelmack/ Look for FOF Extractor. It won't do all the multi-season statistical comparisons that SkyDog has been looking for, but it will give you detailed breakdowns for every attribute that is displayable. |
Well thank you all for this baseline info. Because of this, I've already grabbed a breakout 4th rounder in my MP league. QB Nate Duncan, was drafted 4(25) with skills of roughly 19/49. After he hit my roster he dropped to 19/43. I was like damn, this sucks.
His combine Numbers 40yd tine 4.59 Bench Press 12 Agility 7.66 Solecismic 36 He is now listed as 34/66 going into secondary FA. Now while its possible he could drop, Id say its just as likely he could blow up more. His VOL is 80. The one thing that tipped me off that he may be pretty good was that he knew a TON of formations for a rookie(11). Most I know are like 6-8. |
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http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/%7Efof/f...ad.php?t=21765 |
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