Front Office Football Central - Baseball Auction Poll #1

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Baseball Auction Poll #1

After a few rounds of bidding for the players, we have arrived at the final stage, where FOFC votes on which team is best. There are two polls here, with the top two teams from each advancing for one final poll. I will link to(sometimes extensive) summaries from everyone who sent them to me, and roundups for the other teams. If anyone wants their write-up changed, let me know and I’ll edit it. This is a discussion thread until Monday, when I’ll change it to a poll. Voting can be based on whatever criteria you want.

This division consists of:

Oykib - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...4&postcount=44

Chief Rum - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...8&postcount=37

Vince - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showpost.php?p=379115&postcount=28

Maple Leafs - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...12&postcount=3

ntndeacon - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...6&postcount=36

Suicane75 - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...7&postcount=13

Booj - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...1&postcount=15
Sooner333 - http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...6&postcount=46

Quote:

Voting can be based on whatever criteria you want.

How about just a straight poll on which team you think would win the most? :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

How about just a straight poll on which team you think would win the most? :D

That's more along the lines of whether you judge based on single season or career play. And how much credit you give for Negro Leaguers/Japanese Players.

My initial inclination is that oykib and Maple Leafs have the best rosters. I'm not as familiar with some teams pitchers and that could sway my opinion. It is also very hard to compare teams with strong offense/weak pitching with weak offense/strong pitching. It will be interesting to hear what other people think.

Quote:

That's more along the lines of whether you judge based on single season or career play. And how much credit you give for Negro Leaguers/Japanese Players.

Well, I'm sure some of us picked players for career play and others for their best season, and perhaps both catagories on the same team! So I think we should rely on the opinions of the voters, on which counts more (season or career).

I thought that it's best to consider the players best six seasons for the determination of how good he was. Take whichever season that you like and that gets weighted three times. The two adjacent seasons are weighted two times and the remaining three-- two before and one after or two after and one before-- are weighted as one season each. Then, of course, we divide the totals by ten. That includes games played.

That way we give more credit to a player who was consistent and durable. But we can't really demand that a player be great. We can't really go with one year wonders. Usually, those guys don't repeat because there performance was a fluke, or they just weren't durable. They certainly wouldn't put up those seasons if they were facing the caliber of competition in our league. As an example, take Brady Anderson's 1996 season. Do we really think that he could put up 50 homers against the pitcher's in our league? Here are the numbers:

Code:

Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP

1996 32 BAL AL 149  579  117  172  37  5  50  110  21  8  76 106  .297  .396  .637  369   6   4   1  22  11

Compare those to these numbers:

Code:

Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP

1996 32 BAL AL 149  579  117  172  37  5  50  110  21  8  76 106  .297  .396  .637  369   6   4   1  22  11

1996 32 BAL AL 149  579  117  172  37  5  50  110  21  8  76 106  .297  .396  .637  369   6   4   1  22  11

1996 32 BAL AL 149  579  117  172  37  5  50  110  21  8  76 106  .297  .396  .637  369   6   4   1  22  11

1997 33 BAL AL 151  590   97  170  39  7  18   73  18 12  84 105  .288  .393  .469  277   2   1   6  19   1

1997 33 BAL AL 151  590   97  170  39  7  18   73  18 12  84 105  .288  .393  .469  277   2   1   6  19   1

1995 31 BAL AL 143  554  108  145  33 10  16   64  26  7  87 111  .262  .371  .444  246   4   2   4  10   3

1995 31 BAL AL 143  554  108  145  33 10  16   64  26  7  87 111  .262  .371  .444  246   4   2   4  10   3

1998 34 BAL AL 133  479   84  113  28  3  18   51  21  7  75  78  .236  .356  .420  201   4   1   1  15   7

1999 35 BAL AL 150  564  109  159  28  5  24   81  36  7  96 105  .282  .404  .477  269   1   7   7  24   6

1994 30 BAL AL 111  453   78  119  25  5  12   48  31  1  57  75  .263  .356  .419  190   3   2   3  10   7



Adjusted peak season:

Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP

94-9 32 BAL AL 143  552  102  154  34  6  27   78  24  8  80 101  .278  .382  .510  281   4   3   3  15   7

The adjusted peak numbers seem much more in line with what we expect from him. It's reasonable that he had a power surge. But the 50 homers were a fluke. His SLG that year was not even within 150 points of his next best number. I think the adjusted numbers better reflect his true abilities (more steals, more walks, fewer strikeouts, and not fifty homers).

But we didn't take the power surge away. He did hit a phenomenal number of homers in 1996. But it's something he wouldn't be likely to duplicate even if we put him in the exact same circumstances. It's why, even weighted as it is, his dinger total falls to about half of the 50 he put up in 1996.

It should be easy then to get an idea of where each Major leaguer rates. Of course there is still a subjective element for defense, era adjustment, and intangibles. But one of the benefits of the system above if that you have to assign an age to your player. It's fine if you want to have the "Pops" Willie Stargell from 1979, he was an MVP that year. But you are going to have to take his adjacent injury prone seasons and his bad defensive reputation along with his great leadership.

If we do his worksheet for games played, then you can only expect to have him for 97 games. If you take the younger more potent Stargell, you get better (amazing, actually) production without the veteran leadership. But no matter which age you take him, he's not going to play for more than a 135-140 games, because he was never that durable and only played as many as 140 games five times in a 21 year career-- and never played 150 games.

The same is true for every roster on the team. We could allow people to continue to add adjacent seasons for the players who were truly consistent for more years as long as they go with matched pairs of seasons that are earlier and later than the 'prime' season. Most players are going to be downgraded if we do that. But some players (the all-time greats) will improve.

I believe thats the best way to rate the Major Leauers. We can also use those seasons to determine OPS+ and ERA+ easily to determine the level of play as compared to competition. Those come in raw numbers and are very easily divisible.

For Negro Leaguers and Japanese players, we can just include a capsule of their bio and include a stat projection of them had they played in the majors during their era. Every Negro leaguer has MLB comparables, so the numbers should look somewhat similar to the comparable guys. We can set up a challenge system or something for the stat projections.

The only site I can find with projections is the Integrated Nines at: http://www.i9s.org/i9s.cfm

Their numbers seem pretty solid. They only have rankings for players that debuted up until about 1920 so far. So, that means we don't have a few stars like Satchel Paige, James Bell, and Josh Gibson. For them we'll have to make our own projections. The methodology they use is explained on the site. They scale results to the average league year of the contemporary Major leagues. It seems that the pitching in the Negro Leagues wasn't as good as the Majors, but that the hitters numbers are quite good for the best players.

I've got an excel sheet to do translations of peak stretch like the one I detailed above for both hitters and pitchers.

My position players by that method are:

Code:

Name                Years        G        AB        R        H        2B        3B        HR        RBI        SB        CS        BB        SO        AVG        OBP        SLG        TB        HBP



Chipper Jones        1997-02        158        578        113        182        37        2        36        108        17        5        104        86        0.316        0.421        0.574        332        2



Max Bishop        1928-33        125        453        104        124        27        4        6        39        3        3        114        49        0.274        0.423        0.389        176        3



Tim Raines        1982-7        152        592        109        186        33        10        10        55        72        10        84        64        0.314        0.401        0.455        270        3



Barry Larkin        1993-8        124        452        87        138        27        5        16        62        33        5        68        49        0.305        0.399        0.492        222        3



Vlad Guerrero        1998-03        153        576        101        188        34        6        39        115        19        11        59        74        0.327        0.397        0.609        351        8



Eddie Murray        1982-7        156        576        98        174        30        2        29        109        6        2        88        79        0.302        0.396        0.514        296        2



Larry Doby        1948-53        140        497        99        147        25        5        24        89        7        5        92        86        0.296        0.411        0.511        254        5



Jim Edmonds        1998-03        139        475        97        142        32        1        30        92        6        4        82        130        0.299        0.407        0.559        266        5

Code:

Name               Years        W        L        G        GS        GF        CG        SHO        SV        IP        H        R        ER        HR        BB        SO        ERA        WHIP        K/9        BB/9        K:BB



Dazzy Vance        1925-30        17        12        33        29        3        21        2        1        250 1/3        229        95        82        11        63        173        2.94        1.16        6.22        2.25        2.77:1



Ron Guidry        1976-81        17        6        31        28        2        11        5        1        217        177        71        63        15        65        184        2.60        1.11        7.61        2.69        2.83:1



Robin Roberts        1950-55        24        13        43        39        3        29        4        2        329 2/3        299        116        105        29        58        169        2.86        1.08        4.62        1.58        2.92:1



Mike Mussina        1994-9        16        9        32        32        0        4        1        0        217 1/2        205        94        88        25        53        184        3.64        1.19        7.62        2.18        3.5:1



Sal Maglie '45,50-54        17        6        36        27        4        14        4        2        218 1/3        195        82        72        18        72        108        2.98        1.22        4.46        2.96        1.51:1



Mel Parnell        1948-53        19        9        38        31        5        18        3        2        244 2/3        234        103        88        12        104        100        3.25        1.38        3.67        3.81        .96:1



Harry Breecheen        1946-50        16        10        31        28        2        17        4        1        212 2/3        193        76        68        13        57        106        2.85        1.17        4.49        2.39        1.88:1

If anyone wants it, I can send it to you.
I used the same formula.
Then, I applied Jim Albright's Japanese League translation to get the stats for Nomura and Nagashima had played in the majors.

Runs:* 0.884 ______ Hits:* 0.904
2B:* 0.829_________3B* 2.149
HR:* 0.524_________RBI* 0.778
SO:* 1.017_________BB:* 1.148

Code:

Name                Years        G        AB        R        H        2B        3B        HR        RBI        SB        CS        BB        SO        AVG        OBP        SLG        TB        HBP



Shigeo Nagashima 1959-64 143        502        78        153        27        19        15        71        21        9        96        43        0.304        0.418        0.522        262        3



Katsuya Nomura        1963-8        150        526        82        146        21        1        22        91        8        3        93        82        0.278        0.393        0.448        236        7

Right now I'm trying to come up with a method for the Negro
Leaguers who haven't yet been rated by Integrated Nines and
one for Japanese Pitchers.

These are the guys at I9s:

Code:

Name                Years        G        AB        R        H        2B        3B        HR        RBI        SB        CS        BB        SO        AVG        OBP        SLG        TB        HBP



Oscar Charleston 1918-23 147        568        165        205        37        20        35        126        52        18        64        51        0.360        0.425        0.680        386        0



Louis Santop        1915-19        99        394        69        126        24        9        7        51        8        6        33        50        0.319        0.372        0.474        187        0



Bullet Rogan        1921-6        113        457        95        151        31        12        15        73        22        13        27        55        0.329        0.366        0.546        250        0



Name                Years        W        L        G        GS        IP        H        R        ER        HR        BB        SO        ERA        WHIP        K/9        BB/9        K:BB        LG:ERA





Joe Williams        1915-20        23        14        40        38        340 1/3        278        74        69        5        74        226        1.83        1.03        5.97        1.96        3.05:1        2.92



Bullet Rogan        1921-6        18        15        39        34        315 2/3        310        140        132        6        95        136        3.78        1.28        3.88        2.71        1.43:1        4.11