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-   -   OT: Hold 'Em - Play along in this hand (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=27446)

primelord 07-01-2004 12:48 PM

OT: Hold 'Em - Play along in this hand
 
I saw this hand elsewhere and I thought it was really interesting. I can almost certainly say I would not have played it this way and I am curious how the other players here would have tackled this one. I am going to do this in a step by step process and give people time to weigh in on what they would do at each step. I don't know how that will work, but we will see how it goes.

This hand was played at a Party Poker 2/4 table:

Our Hero is in the SB and is dealt As Ks

1 EP player, 2 MP players, and the CO all limp in. I am quite certain everyone here would raise so we don't need to contemplate that move. Our Hero raises. The BB folds and everyone else calls.

4 players to the flop for 4.5 BBs.

The flop comes Qs 5h 6h.

Our Hero.....

Feel free to give reasoning behind why you chose the line you do.

AnalBumCover 07-01-2004 12:52 PM

Bet on the Flop. Make the Heart and straight draws pay for their card. If there's a raise behind you, Fold.

Coffee Warlord 07-01-2004 12:55 PM

I second ABC's line.

primelord 07-01-2004 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnalBumCover
Bet on the Flop. Make the Heart and straight draws pay for their card. If there's a raise behind you, Fold.


You would fold to a raise holding two over cards, and a backdoor straight flush draw?

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 01:06 PM

bet the flop.

if raised, call and see the turn.

It heavily depends on what falls there.

FWIW, I don't *always* raise with a hand like AK in the blinds.

SirFozzie 07-01-2004 01:08 PM

Check/fold or check/call at best. You have nothing, but a dream at this point.

Three to a straight flush... needing runner runner? Yick.
You do have overcards to the board, but you only have two cards left, and approximately 6 outs to a winner twice.

Coffee Warlord 07-01-2004 01:08 PM

That hand is just asking for disaster. Too chancy of deal to bank on a straight flush with only 2 cards remaining, and I doubt a pair of Aces or Kings is gonna get it done. Not worth throwing a lot of money into the middle.

Radii 07-01-2004 01:08 PM

You definitely bet out. If you're called, see what the turn card is and decide what to do.

If you're raised, I think you have to at least call. If its heads up, you may well re-raise, if its still multi-way when the raise hits I think you have to just call. So very many people will bet or raise a flush draw here, if you get heads up, you can make a case to keep pushing. The problem of course is, what do you do if you miss the turn? this sucks out of position, do you keep pushing the turn no matter what?

But just on this street... bet the flop, call a raise if the raise is right behind you and lots call, re-raise to limit the field if the raise comes from a late position, and if lots of ppl fold and you are heads up when its back to you? RE-raise or call, very tough decision.

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by primelord
You would fold to a raise holding two over cards, and a backdoor straight flush draw?

no way, especially with so many bets in the pot at that point.

10 bets pre-flop.

you make 11
any other callers
someone raises making it 13 minimum.

For another 2 bucks you're looking at a 28 dollar pot plus any addition callers to the raise.

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord
That hand is just asking for disaster. Too chancy of deal to bank on a straight flush with only 2 cards remaining, and I doubt a pair of Aces or Kings is gonna get it done. Not worth throwing a lot of money into the middle.

So you're suggesting check/fold? I don't see how that could possibly be the right play here.

AnalBumCover 07-01-2004 01:12 PM

ok, now what if there are two raises behind?

Coffee Warlord 07-01-2004 01:13 PM

No no, read my first post. Bet on it, but fold to a raise behind. I'll pay for the next card and make everyone else do the same, but I'm not going to go much higher.

Radii 07-01-2004 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnalBumCover
ok, now what if there are two raises behind?


Now its become an easy fold.

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnalBumCover
ok, now what if there are two raises behind?


easy fold. in my experience that's usually two pair or a set.

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord
No no, read my first post. Bet on it, but fold to a raise behind. I'll pay for the next card and make everyone else do the same, but I'm not going to go much higher.


I think if you bet, you absolutely have to be ready to call a single raise. There is too much money in there to fold now.

Also, the position of the raise matters. If you get a raise right after you and a couple people call that, you call easily.

QuikSand 07-01-2004 01:18 PM

Trying not to use the meta-clue that this eventually becomes "very interesting," I think I'm with the majority here -- I bet out, and I'll call one raise here -- but I'd probably need to hit the turn (at least my suit, or a non-heart A/K) to stay in past that.

I think there is also a schol of thought that you can check rasie in a situation like this - nominally to "clean up" your overcard outs. Since you wouldn't mind getting the turn card for free anyway - I could see some logic here, especially if the original bettor ends up being someone from fairly late position.

Coffee Warlord 07-01-2004 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cthomer5000
I think if you bet, you absolutely have to be ready to call a single raise. There is too much money in there to fold now.

Also, the position of the raise matters. If you get a raise right after you and a couple people call that, you call easily.


Good point there. I'm not sold, but I don't have much problem calling a single raise. It's pretty much up in the air.

TRO 07-01-2004 01:36 PM

I'm in the bet out camp, position of raise and how many callers of said raise will help make my next decision.

primelord 07-01-2004 01:48 PM

Sorry guys I got caught on a call. I will update this in just a couple of minutes

primelord 07-01-2004 01:53 PM

Ok our Hero does in fact bet out, EP calls, MP1 folds, CO raises, (since we have already hashed out the what if he raises situation), Hero calls, EP calls. 3 players to the turn for 7.5 BBs.

The turn is the 2c.

So the board is Qs 5h 6h 2c.

Our Hero....

primelord 07-01-2004 01:57 PM

I am also curious as to what people are putting the CO on at this point.

MrIllini 07-01-2004 01:58 PM

check/fold

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by primelord
Ok our Hero does in fact bet out, EP calls, MP1 folds, CO raises, (since we have already hashed out the what if he raises situation), Hero calls, MP1 calls. 3 players to the turn for 7.5 BBs.

The turn is the 2c.

So the board is Qs 5h 6h 2c.

Our Hero....

I assume you mean EP calls?

3 players. Us, EP, CO.

Qs 5h 6h 2c

our flush is dead, our miracle straight is dead. We're up against 1 flush draw, and the CO probably has Q_

In theory we have 6 outs, although it's possible us hitting a pair would give the CO two pair.

Check/fold here.

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 02:09 PM

dola. The guy must have at least a pocket pair. We can't really beat anything but a bluff, and with another guy to worry about, no way I can see calling a bet here.

primelord 07-01-2004 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cthomer5000
I assume you mean EP calls?


Yes I did. Thanks. I have corrected it above.

SirFozzie 07-01-2004 02:15 PM

check/fold. DO. NOT. CHASE.

Radii 07-01-2004 02:16 PM

Check/fold. Of course you may have the best hand. But what could the others be on?

straight draws, as long as it wasn't 34 that's pretty harmless.

Flush draws. Now that worries me. You can't be confidant that a flush draw isn't a flush draw + a deuce or a queen, so you still can't confidantly call this down with nothing, and two of your outs are gone.

Top pair, bad kicker. QJ, QT, Q9, Q-anything. You've got 6 outs.

Top pair/ace/king kicker. You've got 3 outs.

If one of them has two pair or just hit a striaght you're drawing dead.

I'm not really putting the CO on anythign right now. I would guess the CO either has QJ/QT and hit top pair, or has an ace-high flush draw.

But that's not why i say check/fold here. IF you thought your top pair if it hit would be good, you have the odds to call a bet. You're about 6.5:1 against hitting top pair. You'll be getting 8.5:1 on a call here. But at a partypoker low limit table, forget it, this just isn't worth it when first to act.

if i'm on the button I may well bet here to see if I get raised, and to see if I can't check it down for free. But first to act into a raiser? forget it, its just not worth it to hope that ace high holds up against two opponents or that none of them have A5/A6/AQ or a flush draw to totally kill the few outs you have left.

Check/fold.

primelord 07-01-2004 02:20 PM

I want to give it a couple more minutes to see if anyone else wants to weigh in.

Radii 07-01-2004 02:20 PM

Another comment: If your opponents are capable of folding a hand like A5 in the face of a lot of agression, or if a draw might go away then you have the additional hope of getting your opponents to fold, then you can bet. that is why I suggested a possible re-raise on the flop followed by a bet here, but this is a low limit party poker table, that's much more likely to make you lose a few extra bets than it is to win you the pot.

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii
Another comment: If your opponents are capable of folding a hand like A5 in the face of a lot of agression, or if a draw might go away then you have the additional hope of getting your opponents to fold, then you can bet. that is why I suggested a possible re-raise on the flop followed by a bet here, but this is a low limit party poker table, that's much more likely to make you lose a few extra bets than it is to win you the pot.


It is tough to tell sometimes. I've found myself folding the best hand a couple times recently when I had a shitty kicker. Still, with nothing against 2 opponents, I think it's nearly impossible to call a bet here.

primelord 07-01-2004 02:26 PM

Ok the concensus seems to be check/fold.

Our Hero checks the turn, EP checks, CO bets, Our Hero....

Does everyone fold in this situation? No one calls getting 8.5:1 after a more or less blank hits on the turn?

Radii 07-01-2004 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cthomer5000
It is tough to tell sometimes. I've found myself folding the best hand a couple times recently when I had a shitty kicker. Still, with nothing against 2 opponents, I think it's nearly impossible to call a bet here.


Definitely. And if you intended to add fold equity then you had to re-raise the flop, which we didn't do here, so you're either check/calling or check/folding in our situation. Seems like everyone agrees with the fold (so that means everyone's going to check and the ace of hearts hits the river, doesn't it?)

SirFozzie 07-01-2004 02:31 PM

Ok: here's the thing: you are getting 8.5 to 1 pot odds as it stands. However, with the opponent AT LEAST on a pair, maybe with a set or two pair, I think you're a better than 8.5-1 dog, with your best hand being a pair of aces or kings, which very possibly could be beaten already

Radii 07-01-2004 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFozzie
Ok: here's the thing: you are getting 8.5 to 1 pot odds as it stands. However, with the opponent AT LEAST on a pair, maybe with a set or two pair, I think you're a better than 8.5-1 dog, with your best hand being a pair of aces or kings, which very possibly could be beaten already


I agree with this. Still fold :)

primelord 07-01-2004 02:36 PM

Ok I think anyone who was going to call ould have done so by now.

Well our Hero agrees with all of you that calling is a poor play.

After the CO bet our Hero raises, EP folds, and the CO calls.

2 players to the river for 11.5 BBs.

The river is the 5d. Making the final board Qs 5h 6h 2c 5d.

Our Hero....

SirFozzie 07-01-2004 02:37 PM

Limit holdem, might want to try to steal with a bet, otherwise check/folds.

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 02:41 PM

our non-listening hero bets, CO raises, hero calls

CO turns over 25 for a full house?

Radii 07-01-2004 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by primelord
The river is the 5d. Making the final board Qs 5h 6h 2c 5d.

Our Hero....


bet/call. You just represented pocket queens. Maybe you're up against the one of the few 2/4 players who could lay down any sort of a hand here.

primelord 07-01-2004 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii
bet/call. You just represented pocket queens. Maybe you're up against the one of the few 2/4 players who could lay down any sort of a hand here.


Is your bet call suggesting that you call a raise after you bet? That is just surprising to me since you were ready to fold the turn and still haven't improved.

QuikSand 07-01-2004 02:47 PM

At this point, given the check raise bluff on the turn, we absolutely have to bet out and continue to represent strength. If the CO beat us with a 5, fine - he'll likely raise and we're beat. More likely, he has a Q and will make a crying call here. But the point of the whole move on the turn was to at least have him entertain the option of folding - either right there, or to this bet. Gotta follow through.

Radii 07-01-2004 02:48 PM

I really don't like this play by the way. If you want to be agressive, keep raisig on the flop. If you'd re-raised on the flop and bet out on the turn you're much mroe likely to really know where you stand.

As it is you called the flop, checked to a raiser who is almost obligated to bet, and check-raised into a large pot where anyone with any sort of a hand has the odds to call it down.

Straightforward agressive play would have defined the CO's hand better, and would have given us a better chance to win the pot IMO.

this seems like someone just getting too complicated and "tricky" for his own good

primelord 07-01-2004 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand
At this point, given the check raise bluff on the turn, we absolutely have to bet out and continue to represent strength. If the CO beat us with a 5, fine - he'll likely raise and we're beat. More likely, he has a Q and will make a crying call here. But the point of the whole move on the turn was to at least have him entertain the option of folding - either right there, or to this bet. Gotta follow through.


The thoughts of calling a riase here are very interesting to me. The CO only called the Hero's raise on the turn. So what would he raise that we could possibly beat in this situation?

It seems to me if you are going to bet the only reason to do so is so you can safely fold to a raise. Although I do suppose the pot is awful big to be folding for just one more bet.

primelord 07-01-2004 02:53 PM

Results

Our Hero checks, and the CO checks.

Our Hero turns up AKs and the CO mucks. Our Hero's hand is good. :)

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by primelord
Results

Our Hero checks, and the CO checks.

Our Hero turns up AKs and the CO mucks. Our Hero's hand is good. :)


But if you play this hand like this every time on Party, I think you're gonna drop a lot of money.

primelord 07-01-2004 02:55 PM

Now I found this hand very interesting for several reasons. The first being that I agreed with the majority of you throughout the hand. I would not have played this hand this way and I likely would have made the same plays that most people suggested. I also find it interesting because it was played by a person who is a limit Hold 'Em professional, and is widely thought of as a phenomenal limit Hold 'Em player.

SirFozzie 07-01-2004 02:56 PM

And thus we learn...

PartyPoker is full of fish.

Radii 07-01-2004 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by primelord
Is your bet call suggesting that you call a raise after you bet? That is just surprising to me since you were ready to fold the turn and still haven't improved.



I was more than willing to give it up on the turn, but now that we've taken it this far, we're pretty much obligated to bet the river, and once we do that, there's 14+ BB in the pot if its raised back to us. the CO only has to be bluffing 1 time out of 14 to make a call correct here. I stick with my more recent post describing why I hate the way this hand was played, in part because it puts you in this position to give up 2 extra bets on the river, but I think you have to do it.

cthomer5000 07-01-2004 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by primelord
Now I found this hand very interesting for several reasons. The first being that I agreed with the majority of you throughout the hand. I would not have played this hand this way and I likely would have made the same plays that most people suggested. I also find it interesting because it was played by a person who is a limit Hold 'Em professional, and is widely thought of as a phenomenal limit Hold 'Em player.


his read on the specific player could have had a lot to do with it. I can't imagine he would regularly make this play.

primelord 07-01-2004 02:58 PM

Well the interesting thing about this is after reading the hand I thought that it was bad play, but after reading through the discussion some more I think I am convinced this hand was 1) played perfectly and 2) should always be played this way int his situation. I will give some of the explination here in a minute

primelord 07-01-2004 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cthomer5000
his read on the specific player could have had a lot to do with it. I can't imagine he would regularly make this play.


He had no prior read on the players at the table. I should have mentioned that up front.


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