The San Francisco 49ers seem set to choose Alex Smith as the top overall pick in the
 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/3551328

It's amazing how overblown sports players $$$$$ wishes are getting nowdays.


Todd

But Eli has a big upside Smith has.....

Hey look at me in college, 21-1. I demand millions!!!



Todd

Mostl of the victories coming against WAC and MWC teams. Real powerhouses there. ;)

Yet at the same time, from ESPN:

Apr. 19 - The 49ers appear to want Smith, but the latest development is that the No. 1 pick is up for auction, reports ESPN.com's John Clayton. With no deal in sight for Smith after four days of negotiations, Niners coach Mike Nolan has contacted the nine teams below him and is trying to see if he can get the right trade.
His strategy is simple. For days, he's been hearing about teams interested in trading for Smith or Michigan receiver Braylon Edwards. With the top pick, the 49ers control who goes where, so Nolan wants the calls to come through San Francisco.

The Bucs want Smith, but they aren't going pay a ransom to move to No. 1. The Vikings might be willing to offer their second first-round choice to move up for Edwards, but they might want a good draft choice in return from the 49ers.

Love football, the draft idea works for me even as a Brit, but one thing I can't get my head around - how did it get to the point that unproven (at pro level) college players get the biggest bucks before they've even put on a pair of boots at training camp, while veteran players who have proven themselves and are likely to perform at a higher level than the rookies (at least for the first year or two) get nowhere near the same level of contracts?

At what point did it become the norm to pay for potential instead of current production?

If this is in reference to Smith wanting more than what Eli got, since when did the #1 pick get less than or equal to the previous year's #1?

The salaries for the #1 pick increase each draft.

Now I know negotiations are tricky, but if you didn't have a deal with Smith yet .. why would you notify Rodger's folks that he wasn't favored. Seems like you'd just piss off Rodger's folks, and if talks stall with Smith ... you've already sent the message to Rodgers that you consider him second best.

Well he wasn't exactly playing for a powerhouse, either.

Do you think Rodgers cares if he's paid 1st best?

I guess not, but I think you don't want your franchise QB knowing that he wasn't even your first choice. Doesn't exactly create a loyal employee from the get go.

Of course once his 10mil per year paychecks start rolling in, you're probably right.

No, it wasn't. Eli is another one. It's about the sports in general and how bad money is getting. Potential is becoming the top word in the sports dictionary nowdays and players are getting big money before stepping onto a field.


Todd

I think there are a few teams out there in love with Smith and that the 49ers are bluffing and will eventually trade down and get the man they want: Rodgers.

They probably understand that it's business. I'm sure Rivers didn't take it personally when the Chargers picked Eli, held out for a great trade, then got him, when they could have just picked him #1 to begin with.

Rivers did ask for #1 overall money and he held out.

Yes, but he got paid. And he wasn't upset about not being the #1 choice of the Chargers, which is the point I was responding to (even though he wanted to be paid like the #1 pick).

That's a question we have over here too across the pond my friend. :D

Veterans do get the same level of contract and higher. Premium players like Peyton Manning and Champ Bailey receive contracts well above what any rookie makes.

The Niners realized that Rodgers is a product of the Cal QB system and not a great QB. Now they want Smith, who wants more money than Eli got. I say draft Edwards and get a QB in the later rounds. Its not they're going to be contenders next year. Or trade the pick, I don't really care anymore. I know they're going to screw up somehow.

I agree - they should either take Edwards, or try to trade down a few picks and get Mike Williams or one of the RBs, and hope to get that guy from Auburn (I forget his name) in the 2nd round. Or just wait until next year, knowing that they will probably still have a top 10 pick. (Smith, by the way, is more the product of a funky system than Rodgers, so I'd worry more about him being a product of his system. Rodgers played in a system not that different from what the 49ers use anyway.)

Stefan Lefors will be better then either one of them.. if he gets a chance :P

OR Hell.. Even Adrian Mcpherson :)

Quarterback Jason Campbell?

Dear god.. Jason Campbell has like no mobility whatsoever.. didn't he get sacked like 436 times last season? :P

13 to be exact, once every 20.7 pass attempts.

Sack totals of the other top 5 QBs:

Alex Smith: 18 (once every 17.6 pass attempts)
Aaron Rodgers: 25 (12.6)
Charlie Frye: 38 (9.1)
Andrew Walter: 33 (12.9)

And with the running game auburn had.. he shouldn't have had that many

I'd lay money that McPherson will be a star. Oops, did I say that? ;)

Mcpherson's ego is writing checks his body can't cash.. err

Yeah. I'd rather waste a 2nd round pick on a bust than a first round pick. My guess is that only one of the three will be a good QB, and no one knows which one.

You're just trying to piss me off, aren't you?

How bout them aggies! err

If the Niners don't take Edwards or Rodgers with the top pick, you just know somebody will offer them a hell of a package for that #1 in those 15 minutes. There's always some desperate team out there that will throw all of their picks *coughDitkacough* when crunch time rolls around.

:mad:

Of course, I guess I really shouldn't care about the WAC any more, but 28 years of watching a conference will really train you...

And rightly so, but my point is that the draft is to some extent a lottery, so at they very least you would imagine that if rookie contracts were huge they would incentive laden, but the first rounders in particular get huge contracts that are well above the the norm given the level of production they are likely to provide, at least in the short term.

I think it is fair to say that the vast majority of top veterans who get top contracts have proved that they are worth the money, but what is the hit rate with the unproven rookies - 50%? Less?

I appreciate that this is not going to change short term, and is a generalisation, but was just curious how it developed. Chemical Soldier probably summed it up - it's just the way it is.

This is what I'm hoping for.

I'm willing to be Smith will be out of the league in 3-5 years.

Great, let's try this the next time I'm applying for a job!

Hi, I'm MIJB. I can jump higher than anybody I know and can show you excellent IQ test scores from 9 years ago. I'm an excellent negotiatior, hence my FOF multiplayer background and can talk my biggest rivals into giving up more than they should with my sweet talks. I'm the most honest person alive, but I can be the best liar as well thanks to that image. I got more potential that anybody you'll ever see. About the money, I'd like to get 3.5 million Euros (I don't like that US Dollar) a year over the next 5 years. I'd prefer a signing bonus of 15 million and yearly salaries of 500 thousand bucks.

What do you mean, it doesn't happen in real life, haven't you taken a look at the NBA and NFL lately?

Miami Herald now says the 49ers have a deal in place with Rodgers.

This does not mean that they've changed their minds and will take him instead of Smith. But they may be having second thoughts. They may also be using him as a decoy to get Smith to lower his price.

Not to say I don't believe what you're saying here, but I'm just curious how a paper so far away from the action is coming up with this "scoop." Is one of their columnists a nationally known guy? Just wondering.

hxxp://www.kffl.com/hotw/nfl?PHPSESSID=a8abe214b3dc28c6c65ce54b6f6e3b22

49ers | Rodgers Agrees to Parameters of Deal - Thu, 21 Apr 2005 10:53:20 -0700

Jason Cole and Armando Salguero, of the Miami Herald, reports NFL Draft prospect QB Aaron Rodgers (California) has agreed to the basic parameters of a contract with the San Francisco 49ers, who hold the No. 1 overall draft pick. Rodgers appears likely to accept a deal since there is a strong feeling around the league that he could slip in the first round if he isn't selected among the top two picks. As reported, the 49ers also continue to negotiate with Utah QB Alex Smith.

The plot thickens...

Either that's the case or it was the other way around.

I wondered that too. My only thought is that any Dolphins beat guy would probably be digging pretty hard to figure out what the 49ers will do right now.

Yep... all this talk about Smith (and then seeing Rodger's see himself falling down the first down in every mock draft) may have been to get Rodgers to commit to less than the 'slotting system' would have given him.

I think they are leaning towards Smith.

ESPN reports all contract talks with Alex Smith are off and they have a deal Rodgers. Also, the speculation now is that the 49ers might select Edwards #1.

I agree. The fact that Nolan comes from Baltimore and has had first hand experience in the Tedford Curse (i.e. Boeller) makes me think there is little chance that they take Rodgers here even if he agrees to a lesser contract.

From Rodgers standpoint though, he's looking at dropping possibly to 8-10 in the draft if he doesn't go here, so I'd not be suprised if his agent is probably willing to cut a deal and still make more than he would in the 8-10 slot.

Edit: Oops didn't see rkmsuf's post before I wrote this.