Help me win $500 (NFL betting related)
 

So I got this free 6-team parlay bet card from an online sportsbook that I frequent (sportsinteraction.com), as part of their NFL kickoff promotion. All 6 will snag me $500. Week 1 is always difficult, and some of these games even moreso than usual. Chicago/Washington? Blah. Anywho, take a look and post any thoughts.

The games I have to play are:

Indianapolis (-3) at Baltimore (+3)
Dallas (+4.5) at San Diego (-4.5)
Arizona (+2) at NY Giants (-2)
NY Jets (+3) at Kansas City (-3)
Denver (-3.5) at Miami (+3.5)
Chicago (+5.5) at Washington (-5.5)


My initial thoughts are Indy, San Diego, Arizona, Kansas City, Denver, and Chicago. Though I really have no idea on that last game.

are over/under's available?

nope, can only pick from those 6 games and its just the point spreads.

Those are the only 6 games they give you? And are the lines set, or will they shift?

Forcing games on you basically means you have a 1/(2^6) chance of winning, or a little under 2%. :)

I'll take that 2%, since its a free play :)

and lines are set, they won't shift.

That sucks, cuz what I am looking at now has Arz at +3, but Denver has jumped to -4.5. Overall I agree with your choices, that last one is very hard. I am thinking the game will be 17-13 Washington, but who knows.

My picks:

Baltimore +3 -- Indy is a sucker bet... playing on grass against a very good Baltimore pass defense, you have to take the points here.

San Diego -4.5 -- Jones will have a disappointing year, as San Diego's underrated defense will put a lot of pressure on Bledsoe (who is very slow getting rid of the ball anyways). No Gates stinks, but the Charges running game will grind down the 'Boys.

'Zona +2 -- Although 'Zona is a trendy pick, I'd have a hard time going against them here if they were LAYING 2 points.

KC -3 -- I like KC to wear down the somewhat shallow Jets D late in the game.

Miami +3.5 -- When unsure, playing the home dog early on is never that bad of a move. I think Ronnie Brown will surprise people, and I like the points in a low-scoring game.

Chicago +5.5 -- Love that many points in what I call a toss-up game.

I would agree with you on this if Indy was playing a squad that could put up some points as well. Even if they have a great pass D, Indy will be able to strike a few times, and Baltimore, who knows if Boller will be able to get that offense going. Even if it is low scoring, I don't see Baltimore staying within 3 of that offense no matter how good the Raven D is.

Agreed. I think it's going to be low scoring, in the 17-10 or 17-13 range, but the Colts will win.

so who did you end up picking?

ended up staying with my initial picks, with one change from denver to miami. so it is indy, san diego, arizona, kc, miami, and chicago. I am not sure about the ny/kc game as much anymore, since some stuff i am reading is saying that the Jets will be a contender this year and knock off the Pats as AFC champs. Well, that's mostly Cris Carter, and he's crazy, right? Right?

So far, so good. Chicago covered, only losing by 2. And both Miami and KC are on their way to blowout wins. I have also come to the conclusion that Cris Carter is on crack (see above post).

You took Miami or Denver?

.

Ok, I was reading the first post.

If Arizona can stage a comeback, then you'll still be alive.

well that didnt end up well. week 1 craziness, but it was still fun for a free play.

FWIW - I had Arizona also.

SD/Dall could have gone either way really